Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance

United States

Tom Keene and David Gura have the economy and the markets "under surveillance" as they cover the latest in finance, economics and investment, and talk with the leading voices shaping the conversation around world markets.


If Trump Asked Me to Chair the Fed, I’d Do It, Stiglitz Says  

Nobel winner Joseph Stiglitz, currently an economics professor at Columbia University, says if President Trump asked, he would agree to lead the Federal Reserve. Prior to that, Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, says Trump seems bent on making enemies in Washington. Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, says 16 years after 9/11 lower Manhattan’s pace of gentrification has accelerated. Finally, Kurt Andersen, host of Studio 360, discusses his new book, Fantasyland: How America Went Haywire, tracing the Internet’s evolution as a launch pad for lies and what laid the groundwork for it.

The Fed Is in The Midst of a 'Beautiful Normalization,' El-Erian Says  

Mohamed El-Erian, a columnist at Bloomberg View, says the Fed is in the midst of a "beautiful normalization" and needs a team approach. Prior to that, Chuck Gabriel, founder of Capital Alpha Partners, says President Trump's deal with Democrats will only make tax reform harder. Finally, Jeffrey Solomon, president of Cowen and Co., says the research industry is at a point where excellence wins and mediocrity is eliminated. 

Two Percent Inflation Target Is Achievable, Plosser Says  

Former Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser says two percent inflation target is achievable and vacancies at the Fed are the result of politicization. Gregg Lemkau, Goldman Sachs' co-head of investment banking, says the lack of predictability in the Trump administration has people pausing on deals and transactions. Finally, Atul Lele, Deltec's chief investment officer, says U.S. economic expansion has been driven mainly by private industry.

America Changes Immigrants, Not the Opposite, Gutierrez Says  

Former U.S. Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez discusses the need for more comprehensive immigration reform. Prior to that, Peter Hayes, BlackRock's head of municipal bonds, says one must believe in the long-term efficacy of a particular state when buying bonds. Finally, Kathleen Fisher, AllianceBernstein's head of wealth and investment strategies, says small banks buying even smaller ones.

Kim Jong-Un Threats Amount to 'Get Off My Lawn,' Kimmitt Says  

North Korea's Kim Jong-Un wants the U.S. to "get off his lawn" and Americans shouldn't worry about nuclear war any time soon, says Mark Kimmitt, the former U.S. assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs. Prior to that, James Stavridis, dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University, says China holds North Korea's leash. Finally, Steve Bell, a senior advisor at the Bipartisan Policy Center, says there's a chance of tax cuts in early 2018.

Jobs Report Is Weak, Gross Says  

Bill Gross, a fund manager at Janus Henderson, says this is a weak jobs report and that he sees the U.S. budget deficit increasing. Prior to that, Jim Glassman, JPMorgan's head economist for commercial banking, says economists should worry when businesses stop worrying. Gary Cohn, director of the White House National Economic Council, says a tax blueprint will be coming out in the next couple of weeks. Finally, Brian Kelly, founder of The Points Guy, says avoid flying to Houston, but if you are, ask for a "weather waiver."

Gasoline May Jump as Much as 40 Cents a Gallon, Gartman Says  

Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of the Gartman Letter, says there won't be any gasoline from the Colonial pipelines for the next several weeks. Prior to that, Nicholas Akins, CEO of American Electric Power, says it's critical to get electrical power back up at chemical facilities in Houston. Finally, Michael Brown, an economist at Wells Fargo, says he expects Democrats to support a clean debt-ceiling bill.

Why Morgan Stanley Is Revising Its GDP Outlook  

Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, tells Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua why Morgan Stanley is revising its GDP forecast and says the economy hasn't seen the worst yet for inflation this year. Jens Nordvig, Exante Data's CEO and founder, says there's too much concern about European political risk. Jacques Rousseau, an oil and gas analyst at Clearview Energy Partners, says things may get to the point where companies borrow oil. Finally, Daniel Alpert, Westwood Capital's managing partner, says the vicious cycle of borrowing to consume is re-emerging.

Next Fed Chair Doesn't Have to be Seasoned Economist, Schlosstein Says  

Ralph Schlosstein, president and CEO of Evercore Partners, says the next chair of the Federal Reserve doesn't have to be a seasoned economist. Prior to that, Harm Bandholz, Unicredit's chief U.S. economist, says the U.S. will be at two percent GDP by the end of next year. Pete Sessions, a Republican representative from Texas, says President Trump must figure out where his best talents are quickly. Finally, Bruce Klingner, a former CIA deputy division chief, says China would act on North Korea if the U.S. limited their financial access.

Ex-FEMA Head Says Trump's Done Everything Right on Harvey So Far  

Former FEMA Director James Lee Witt says Trump's done everything right so far on Hurricane Harvey. Prior to that, Representative Mark Walker, chairman of the Republican Study Committee, says he expects U.S. tax reform to pass before Thanksgiving. Noah Feldman, a Bloomberg View columnist, says it's clear Trump ignored all formal processes in pardoning Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Finally, former Fed Vice Chair Alice Rivlin says a government shutdown could still happen, even though she doesn't expect it.

Fed Should Be Moving on Balance Sheet, Dallas Bank's Kaplan Says  

Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, says the economy is closer to the neutral rate than some think, and the Fed should be moving on its balance sheet. Glenn Hubbard, dean of the Columbia Business School, sees 2 percent inflation in the not-too-distant future. Finally, Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz SE's chief economic adviser, says despite the back and forth in Washington, the government's debt ceiling will be resolved.

Fed Can Start Shrinking Its Balance Sheet, Esther George Says  

Esther George, president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, says the Fed can start shrinking its balance sheet and that there's still an opportunity to increase rates once more. Prior to that, Ron Temple, Lazard Asset Management's co-head of multi-asset investment, says leadership is not a tweet. Shannon O'Neil, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says Latin American countries have a reflex action about U.S. tough talk. Finally, Tim Pawlenty, the former governor of Minnesota and a former presidential candidate, says despite Democrat opposition, a tax bill could be forced through by Republicans if they wanted.

Trump Doesn't Have to Play Hero Role, Just a Less Destructive One, Gabriel Says  

Chuck Gabriel, president of Capital Alpha Partners, says Trump doesn't have to play a heroic role, just a less destructive one. Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., says massive tax reform is due in the U.S. Finally, Jacques Rousseau, the managing director of global oil and gas at Clearview Energy Partners, says there's a disconnect in gas consumption data.

Trump Is Over-Relying on Military Advice, Former U.S. Army Secretary Says  

Former U.S. Army Secretary Eric Fanning says President Trump is over-relying on military advice and that his views on Afghanistan have evolved significantly. Prior to that, Conrad Dequadros, RDQ Economics' senior economist, says there's a low chance that U.S. fiscal policy will change. Finally, Lawrence Korb, the former assistant secretary of defense, says Trump's policy on Afghanistan risks inciting terrorists.

Trump Should Apologize for Charlottesville Comments, Former GM CEO Says  

Former GM CEO Dan Akerson says President Trump can win back peoples' good will with good deeds. Prior to that, Nathan Sheets, chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income, says Mario Draghi will probably focus on international economic issues at Jackson Hole. Brad Blakeman, a Republican strategist, says it's now up to Trump to unite the country. Finally, Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, says Steven Bannon's tax proposal was the "stupidest, dumbest and more destructive" idea he's heard.

Authorities Knew Barcelona Attack Site Was Vulnerable, Klausen Says  

Jytte Klausen, a professor at Brandeis University, says terror attacks in Europe reflect failures by local officials. Jim Glassman, JPMorgan Chase's commercial banking head economist, says the Fed needs to hold high ground. John Hudak, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, says President Trump still has a lot of tacit support. Finally, Mitch Lowe, the CEO of MoviePass, says cinemas must ramp up their security.

America Suffers From 'History Deficit Disorder,' Brinkley Says  

Douglas Brinkley, a historian and professor at Rice University, says there's a fierce hatred between Americans. Prior to that, Senator Benjamin Cardin, a Democrat from Maryland, says more people need to speak out against President Trump. David Herro, Harris Associates' CIO of international equity, says there are still opportunities in Italian banks. Republican Representative David Reichert says Trump's Charlottesville remarks were concerning. Finally, Chuck Robbins, the CEO of Cisco, says the company's transition to software is speeding up.

Wal-Mart Is Killing Small-Town America More Than Amazon, DeLong Says  

Brad DeLong, an economics professor at Berkeley, says Wal-Mart, not Amazon, is killing small-town America. Prior to that, New Jersey Representative Bill Pascrell, a Democrat, says Republicans are afraid to stand up to Trump. Sebastien Galy, a macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, says wages will eventually rise. Finally, Michael Barone, the author of "The Almanac of American Politics," says Democrats and Trump are both behaving irrationally.

It's Been Difficult to Get Inflation to Move, Soss Says  

Neal Soss, Credit Suisse's vice chairman of global fixed income, says it's been difficult to get inflation to move and politics is a distraction to markets. Prior to that, Gideon Rose, the editor of Foreign Affairs magazine, says the U.S. isn't Venezuela and President Trump won't bring this country down. Then, Admiral James Stavridis, the dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University, says he has enormous respect for John Kelly and communicates with him often.

White Supremacy Granted a Place at American Political Table, Ricks Says  

Thomas Ricks, a Pulitzer-prize winning author, says U.S. political turmoil is reminiscent of the 1930s. Prior to that, Douglass Kass, founder and partner at Seabreeze Partners, says he expects Twitter to be part of a much larger company by next year. Fred Hochberg, the former chairman of Export-Import Bank of U.S., says the future of the Democratic party will be with the young and millennials. Finally, Michael Mullen, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, says Trump hasn't left himself room to maneuver with China.

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