Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance

United States

Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Michael McKee speak to experts on economics, finance, investment and international relations.


Republicans Campaigned to Repeal ACA and Need to Keep Promise, DeMint Says  

Former Senator Jim DeMint says Republicans need to keep their promise to repeal the Affordable Care Act and that President Trump and Jeff Sessions need to restore their relationship. Prior to that, Michael Darda, MKM Holdings' chief economist, and Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, discuss European politics and international relations. Finally, Seth Carpenter, UBS' chief U.S. economist, says the current decade is the slowest in productivity growth since World War II.

GDP Growth at 3 Percent Isn't Going to Happen, Mortimer-Lee Says  

Paul Mortimer-Lee, BNP Paribas' chief market economist, says 3 percent GDP growth isn't going to happen. Prior to that, Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity's chief market strategist, says there's a synchronized global economic recovery. Texas Representative William Hurd says the Trump administration has done a good job in dealing with ISIS. Finally, Ohio Representative Timothy Ryan says there's no real seriousness within the GOP.

GOP Has 'Keys to the Car' But Not Control, Haines Says  

Terry Haines, Evercore ISI's senior political strategist, says the GOP has the "keys to the car" but not complete control and that White House investigations are distractions in D.C. Then, Michael Cohen, the head of energy commodities research at Barclays, says there's a lack of clarity from Libya and Nigeria on oil levels. Finally, Peter Hayes, BlackRock's head of municipal bonds, says new high yield deals that are coming to the markets are structurally weak.

We Will Get a Different Fed During Next Seven Years, El-Erian Says  

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz and a columnist at Bloomberg View, talks about the future of the Federal Reserve. Prior to that, Chris Verrone, who heads technical analysis at Strategas Research Partners, says market trends can influence seasonality. Jeff Sprague, founder of Vertical Research Partners, says GE's cash flow was better for the second quarter, but the company has a big hill to climb to get to the full-year target. Finally, Bloomberg View's Tim O'Brien says people need to care about issues related to Russian sanctions.

Central Bankers Should've Been More Aggressive, Rogoff Says  

Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University, says central bankers should've been more aggressive during the financial crisis and that India's demonetization was done too quickly. Prior to that, Kathy Matsui, chief Japan equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Japan, says Japanese companies are strong. Robert Shiller, a professor at Yale University, says New York City housing is more affordable than people think. Finally, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu says Washington's stuck making the same mistakes in health care.

International Community Isn't Confident in U.S. Policy, Sinche Says  

Robert Sinche, a global strategist at Amherst Peirpont, says there's a lot of political and monetary uncertainty in the U.S. Then, Donald Straszheim, the head of Evercore ISI's China research team, says Washington won't be able to get what it wants out of China. Douglas Duncan, Fannie Mae's chief economist, expects strong U.S. housing price appreciation to continue. Finally, Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy, says the best thing the Fed can do is let the labor market run hot to create more wage pressure.

Obamacare Marketplace Is Failing, Eurasia's Lieber Says  

Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's director of U.S. practice, says the federal government will have to step in as the Obamacare marketplace fails. Prior to that, John Silvia, Wells Fargo's chief economist, says there's an imbalance in U.S. economic policies. Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, says credit hasn't normalized for mortgage lendings. Finally, Bloomberg Businessweek's Joshua Green discusses Steve Bannon's influence on power, the thinking behind Trump's actions and the state of U.S. political parties.

Health-Care Bill Must Be Defeated, Penn's Emanuel Says  

Ezekiel Emanuel, chairman of medical ethics and health policy at the University of Pennsylvania, says the health-care bill must be defeated. Prior to that, Tony Crescenzi, a market strategist at PIMCO, says he expects one more rate hike this year with two to three in 2018. Finally, Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments' chief global strategist, says Trump must widen his circle of advisers.

Businesses Have Less Pricing Power Right Now, Dallas Fed President Says  

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan says businesses have far less pricing power right now and to expect wage pressures to mount in the months ahead. Prior to that, Kate Moore, BlackRock's chief equity strategist, says we should feel confident about the sustainability of the market. Megan Murphy, editor of Bloomberg Businessweek, discusses Lloyd Blankfein's banking resiliency. Kenneth Leon, a bank analyst at CFRA, says Wells Fargo is a "super-regional bank" rather than a diversified global bank. Finally, Thomas Coburn, a former senator from Oklahoma, says health care won't get fixed in Washington.

There's 'Desired Chaos' in the White House, Rattner Says  

Steve Rattner, Willett Advisors' chairman, says Trump isn't interested in advice or suggestions in running his White House. Prior to that, Mario Gabelli, Gabelli Funds' CIO of value portfolios, says American companies will get tailwinds as opposed to headwinds. Douglas Elmendorf, the dean of Harvard's Kennedy School, says it's important for GOP leaders to stand up for the CBO and its work. Brian Wieser, a senior research analyst at Pivotal Research Group, says Fox is undervalued. Finally, Martin Sorrell, WPP's CEO, says businesses have yet to see the effects of U.K. uncertainty.

Fed Must Raise Rates and Shrink Balance Sheet Thoughtfully, Hill Says  

Arkansas Congressman French Hill says Fed governors need banking, business and a mixture of experience. Prior to that, Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan's chief economist, says the important thing to look for from the Fed is balance sheet timing. Libby Cantrill, Pimco's executive vice president, says expectations for passing legislation are unrealistic. Finally, Toby Cosgrove, CEO of the Cleveland Clinic, says he doesn't expect the health-care bill to be passed.

Central Banks Around the World Have Overreached, Plosser Says  

Charles Plosser, the former Philadelphia Fed president, says central banks around the world have overreached and Randal Quarles's nomination would be good for the Fed board. Prior to that, Howard Ward, Gabelli Funds' CIO of growth equities, says we're in a nominal 3 percent GDP world. David Shulkin, U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs, says the V.A. has invested heavily in cybersecurity. Doug Bandow, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, says North Korea's regime is evil, but not crazy. Finally, Timothy O'Brien, Bloomberg View's executive editor, says Trump is his own first and last counsel.

Trump 'Wounds' Are Self-Inflicted, Valliere Says  

Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments' chief global strategist, says Trump's "wounds" are self-inflicted by his sensitivity to criticism and inability to let the Russia story go. Prior to that, Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics' chief economist, says Europe inflation is under  target. Jim Barry, BlackRock's head of real assets, says the U.S. has underinvested in infrastructure for 30 to 40 years. Finally, Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Kissinger Associates, says a well-functioning global economy would make America great again.

We're Not In a Bond Rout Yet, Gross Says  

Bill Gross, a fund manager at Janus Henderson, says the bond market isn't in a rout yet and to expect one more Fed rate increase this year, likely in December. Prior to that, Alan Krueger, a professor at Princeton University, says the U.S. is heading toward a labor shortage economy. James Glassman, a senior economist at JPMorgan, says the jobs data for June show people are recognizing the economy's in a better position today. Finally, Max Baucus, the former U.S. ambassador to China, says foreign leaders don't know what to expect from President Trump's inconsistency.

Russians Are Interfering in Western European Politics, Hormats Says  

Robert Hormats, Kissinger Associates' vice chairman, says Russia is clearly trying to undermine stability among European countries within the NATO alliance. Barry Eichengreen, a professor at the University of California at Berkley, says the U.S. will learn how hard it is to go alone in the world. Roberto Azevedo, the director general at the World Trade Organization, says the Trump administration is still trying to figure out its trade plans. Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, says the Fed's still following the Phillips curve tradition. Gene Munster, co-founder of Loup Ventures, says Tesla's Model 3 is a paradigm shift in e-vehicles and autonomy.

The Great Posen/Ryding Debate  

Adam Posen, the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and John Ryding, RDQ Economics' chief economist, agree to disagree on the past, present and future for Fed Chair Yellen and other bankers. Prior to that, David Folkerts-Landau, Deutsche Bank's chief economist, says the Fed will lead the way against market dangers through gradual rate increases and careful communication. Megan Greene, Manulife Asset Management's chief economist, says the Fed's painted into a corner in terms of shrinking its balance sheet. Finally, Louise Yamada, a market analyst at Louise Yamada Techresearch, says a near-term correction isn't in the horizon.

Abe Has a Chance to Get His Party Back on Track, Feldman Says  

Robert Feldman, a senior advisor at Morgan Stanley MUFG, says Shinzo Abe has an opportunity to get his party back on track and Japan wants to play a more active role against North Korea. Prior to that, Berenberg Capital Markets' Mickey Levy says global central banks are conducting policies that are inconsistent with market fundamentals. Finally, Don Katz, founder and CEO of Audible, discusses the evolution of the audio book, podcasts and Audible's relationship with Amazon.

Three Percent Unemployment: The Optimism of Unicredit  

Harm Bandholz, Unicredit's chief U.S. economist, talks about his optimistic view of the unemployment rate and says it would be positive for the U.S. if the Eurozone strengthens. Robert Profusek, a partner at Jones Day, says the pace of deal-making isn't slowing but it's taking longer to close. Finally, Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of the Gartman Letter, says the recent gold drop may have been caused by Venezuela selling.

Banks Are Facing a 'Toxic Cocktail,' Kass Says  

Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners, says headwinds in the banking industry could be a "toxic cocktail." Prior to that, Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank's chief economist, says the ECB will be tapering further by the end of the year. Charles Peabody, an analyst at Compass Point Research, says Jamie Dimon's tech investments have put JPMorgan at an advantage. Dan Yergin, IHS' vice chairman, says big oil will go through soul-searching. Finally, Texas Representative Kevin Brady says the Senate will resolve their differences and pass health care.

McConnell Will Get His Health Care Votes, Former HHS Secretary Says  

Former Secretary of Health and Human Services Michael Leavitt says Mitch McConnell will ultimately get his 50 votes for health care but will need heavy negotiations. Prior to that, Stan Collender, Qorvis MSLGROUP's executive vice president says the CBO is stronger today than it was two months ago. Komal Sri-Kumar, founder and president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, says Christine Lagarde's too optimistic about the U.S. Then, Diane Swonk, CEO of Diane Swonk & Associates, says U.S. GDP is stuck at 2 percent. Finally, Brian Wieser, a senior research analyst at Pivotal Research Group, says Facebook's user growth isn't particularly meaningful.

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