Hard Currency

Hard Currency

United Kingdom

The FT's currency show takes a hard look at what's driving the largest market in the world, discussing market trends, political and economic factors affecting global currencies. Correspondent Alice Ross talks to global experts on the foreign exchange market about their views on the week ahead

Episodes

All change at Central Bank station  

The Bank of England split highlights how central banks are preparing to end years of easing and shift to monetary tightening. But how fast will the change come and how will the pound and other currencies respond? Commerzbank's chief economist Peter Dixon discusses the moves with Roger Blitz, and looks at how the causes of inflation and the way it is measured are also under review.

Gyrating dollar, sea-sick sterling and a loveable loonie  

Bilal Hafeez of Nomura steers Roger Blitz through a turbulent forex week, which saw markets downplay the hawkish rate hike of the Federal Reserve, buy and sell the pound on a hung parliament, Brexit uncertainty and Bank of England dissent and get caught out by Canadian policymakers' change of tune.

Not getting hung up about the pound  

The election of a minority Tory government has thrown the UK into another bout of political uncertainty, yet investors are not rushing to ditch sterling. Kit Juckes of Societe Generale and Simon Derrick of BNY Melllon tell Roger Blitz why its relative cheapness and prospects of a soft Brexit are keeping the pound afloat, but they doubt whether the currency can withstand the turbulence of a hung parliament

The pound goes to the polls  

Derek Halpenny from MUFG joins Michael Hunter to assess the outlook for the pound in the final run-up to the UK election, and also takes a look at the political risk faced by a resurgent euro

Forex circling like a shadow-boxer  

A stronger euro, a weaker dollar, a nervous pound - currencies sparred with each other but none looked capable of delivering a knockout blow. Tim Graf of State Street tells Roger Blitz why the market is in a circumspect, defensive mood

China chill trumps Washington worries  

A frenzied week in forex saw the dollar and emerging market currencies come under fire, while investors loved the euro and took the pound through $1.30. Jane Foley of Rabobank sifts through the moves and tells Roger Blitz that while Donald Trump's woes were a catalyst, the big investor worry is about China and the US economy.

Keep EM and carry on  

China is tightening liquidity, commodities have fallen, oil is volatile. So why is Goldman Sachs' Kamakshya Trivedi upbeat about emerging market currencies? It's all about current account balances, inflation, very good trade data and a shift in political risk, he tells Roger Blitz

Smoking May, red-hot June  

Millennium Global's Richard Benson talks to Roger Blitz about the forex developments of the week, including the pound's resilience in the face of a furious Brexit brawl and the likely impact on the dollar and the euro if next month delivers both a US rate hike and ECB tapering signals

Big currencies look spent as other options emerge  

There are too many snags to offer a convincing case for buying the dollar, the euro and sterling, says Adrian Owens of GAM. He tells Roger Blitz why he thinks there are better opportunities in emerging market currencies

Sterling gets the market's vote  

Theresa May's snap election caused a surge in the pound and had investors purring at the idea that a smooth Brexit is coming. Roger Hallam of JP Morgan Asset Management tells Roger Blitz whether he thinks the market's optimism is justified and looks at the euro's prospects after Sunday's first round in the French presidential election.

Markets mull meddling Mélenchon  

Investors seemed fairly relaxed about the French presidential election until far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon spoiled their mood by polling strongly. Nomura's Jordan Rochester tells Roger Blitz what his emergence spells for the euro and explains how to trade the markets between the first and second rounds of the election.

No room for complacency on the pound  

The official start of Britain's negotiations to leave the EU hasn't done further damage to the pound. But George Saravaleos, head of currency research at Deutsche Bank, says that the messy politics of Brexit will eventually catch up with sterling.

Keep on down the road of optimism, but mind the bumps  

The first quarter's popular bets - strong dollar, weak peso, high yields - did not pan out the way investors expected. But Ugo Lancioni of Neuberger Berman tells Roger Blitz that the next few months promise decent returns in forex despite ongoing worries about political risk

Who's doing good from dollar doldrums?  

Not many, says Steven Barrow of Standard Bank. There may be some short-term upside for the euro, the pound and emerging market currencies, he tells Roger Blitz, but none of these are likely to stay supported as investors itch to revive the dollar rally.

Worried dollar and sterling bulls - worry not  

A dovish Federal Reserve is giving grief to the greenback, but Sam Lynton-Brown of BNP Paribas tells Roger Blitz there is good reason to expect the dollar to keep rising, while there is a fair chance that sterling will enjoy short-term support

Eurozone on the move, but not the euro  

Strong Eurozone growth and inflation has increased talk about the European Central Bank moving away from easy monetary conditions. But Max Kettner of Commerzbank tells Roger Blitz why the case for a stronger euro is balanced at best

Fed in fashion, but don't discount the Donald  

Hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials was the big dollar driver this week, but Steven Englander of Citigroup tells Roger Blitz why investors should still keep faith in the Trumpflation trade

Dollar doubts, French fears, steady sterling  

Itchy investors are saying goodbye and good riddance to February in the forex market. Kathleen Brooks of City Index tells Roger Blitz that there is much more to look forward to in March, but for the moment, dollar uncertainty is the dominant theme, followed by rising European political risk and a more measured view of Brexit

Sterling's puzzling purple patch  

The pound has proved surprisingly resilient around the $1.25 level, even as inflation data out this week looked lacklustre. Koon Chow of UBP tells Michael Hunter what is on the watchlist for the UK currency and takes a tour or the agenda for the dollar and the euro

Teed off Trump wages war on FX  

Donald Trump is golfing with Japan's prime minister, with currency manipulation high on the agenda. Jeremy Cook of World First tells Roger Blitz what the FX implications are likely to be, and also weighs up political risk on the euro

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