Macro Voices

Macro Voices

United States

Weekly market commentary by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend and interviews with the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics. Made possible by funding from Fourth Turning Capital Management, LLC

Episodes

Art Berman: OPEC Production Cut, Crude Oil Outlook  

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss OPEC's latest production cut agreement and what it means, false conception of cutting production to bring balance to an already-balanced market, how excess oil in storage will suppress prices for some time to come, weak demand growth similar to late-2014 won't support higher prices, OPEC not being as desperate as portrayed by the media, and much more.

Erik Townsend: Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 2  

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 2. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the second of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor. Erik and Aaron discuss the process of re-inventing oneself from running a company as an entrepreneur to managing and running money, skillset required for investing versus entrepreneurship, options in alternative financial media, the different categories of private investors and the work required, difference between an asset allocator and a full-time investor, and much more.

RVTV Encore: Edward Carter  

An interview which was originally published on April 8, 2016 between Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision and Edward Bonham Carter, Vice Chairman of Jupiter Fund Management Plc.

Paul Krake: Post-Trump, Ripping up the Investment Playbook  

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Paul Krake to MacroVoices. Erik and Paul discuss the bond market blowup in the context of the U.S. Presidential election, ripping up the investment playbook under a Trump presidency, violent rotation out of long-bond proxies into higher growth, higher rate assets, the resulting balance sheet and pension destruction from the rotation, potential for a disorderly rise in interest rates and the U.S. Dollar, gold losing its predictive ability and relevance, China debt dynamics and potential RMB devaluation in the context of limiting social unrest, and much more.

Dr. Harald Malmgren, Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Post-Election Special  

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Dr. Harald Malmgren and Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik, Harald, and Pippa discuss Trump's governance effectiveness in light of the enemies he has made on the campaign trail, sources and potential escalation of social unrest and riots in the aftermath of Trump's victory, the potential for Trump to galvanize the determination, grit, and work ethic of the American electorate, whether markets are prematurely jumping to the conclusion that Trump is necessarily inflationary, outlook for foreign relations with China, Russia, and Mexico, breakdown of the social contract and the collapse in the government's ability to function and meet entitlements, and much more.

RVTV Encore: Dr. Brett Steenbarger  

An interview which was originally published on October 18, 2015 between Raoul Pal of Real Vision and Dr. Brett Steenbarger, Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry & Behavioral Science at SUNY Upstate Medical University.

Willem Middelkoop: The Big Reset, China's Role in SDR, Gold, Alternatives to Democracy, and More  

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Willem Middelkoop to MacroVoices. Erik and Willem discuss Willem's recent book The Big Reset and the coming monetary reset, China's strategic objectives and pushing for the use of SDRs as the global reserve currency, outlook for the coming secular commodity reflation cycle, Willem's call to buy precious metals and miners in January 2016, and much more.

Hugh Hendry: USD Breakout, Post-Brexit Europe, Benign on Japan, Equity Outlook, & More  

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Hugh Hendry to MacroVoices. Erik and Hugh discuss USD breakout and binary consideration of US economy's condition in a strong-dollar environment, Brexit contagion and likelihood of strong vs. weaker countries disbanding from the EU, the "time stop-loss" and when it's appropriate to pivot theses, global transfer from creditors to debtors via the machinations of QE, Hugh's response to Kyle Bass' China devaluation thesis, maintaining intellectual honesty in the face of professional ramifications, and much more.

RVTV Encore: Kyle Bass  

An interview which was originally published on July 1, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Kyle Bass, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager, and Founder of Hayman Capital Management.

Robin Griffiths: Cyclical and Technical Frameworks, Central Bank Impotence, DM/EM Outlooks, Gold, and More  

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Robin Griffiths to MacroVoices. Erik and Robin discuss technical and cyclical frameworks for evaluating financial markets, hierarchy of cycles from seasonal variation to generational, potential panicked selloff in the trade-weighted U.S. dollar, outlook for global equities and central bank-induced flash crashes, gold's resistance at $1,400 and ability to shoot back to all-time highs, and much more.

Mark Yusko: Short Dollar, Long Deutsche Bank, China eCommerce, Oil, and More  

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Mark Yusko to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss bearish outlook for and reserve status deterioration of U.S. dollar, the "Everything Bubble" and similarities to 2000, misplaced comparisons between Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers, exciting trends and generational opportunities in China retail and eCommerce, dangerous paradigm of buying stocks for yield and bonds for capital appreciation, and much more.

RVTV Encore: Michael Lewitt  

An interview which was originally published on July 20, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Michael Lewitt, founder of The Credit Strategy Group and writer of The Credit Strategist, a popular and acclaimed investment newsletter.

Simon Hunt: Chinese Political War, IMF Special Drawing Rights, Russia-China Alliance, 2020 Global Market Crash  

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Simon Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss internal politcal wars within China stagnating economic growth, China's steady, step-wise approach to allowing firm bankruptcies, Internal IMF battle for RMB's inclusion in SDR, logic behind China's stockpiling of raw commodities and base metals, impending global stock market crash and economic reset within the next 5 years, and much more.

Michael Lebowitz: Death of the Virtuous Economic Cycle  

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Michael Lebowitz to MacroVoices. Erik and Michael discuss the saving discipline that drives the virtuous economic cycle and sustains prosperity, a global economy untethered from demographics and productivity, outlook for negative interest rate policies, alternatives for savers throughout the demise of the virtuous cycle, Trump v. Clinton impacts on global financial markets, and much more.

RVTV Encore: Roy Sebag & Josh Crumb  

An interview which was originally published on April 14, 2016 with Roy Sebag and Josh Crumb, co-founders of Bitgold, and Chief Executive Officer and Chief Strategy Officer of Goldmoney, respectively.

Alex Gurevich: Dominant USD, Historical Fed Tightening Cycles, Cheap Treasuries, China Debt Unwind, and More  

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Alex Gurevich to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss market reaction to latest FOMC policy decision, importance of placing current Fed actions in the context of historical rate-hiking cycles, egregiously cheap valuations on 10-year Treasury Notes, gold's positive risk-reward and return expectations in the coming years, China's $30 trillion private debt unwind and history of imperial collapse, and much more.

Raoul Pal: USD, TSYs, Biz Cycle, Gold, EU Exit Contagion & More!  

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Raoul Pal to MacroVoices. Erik and Raoul discuss structural issues in LIBOR and Eurodollar markets as bullish for USD, update on Raoul's business cycle framework, 100% probability of recession following 2-term U.S. presidencies, Brexit contagion spreading into the rest of Europe, gold and USD pairs-trade timeline and expectations, precarious state of and systemic risk of the European banking sector, potential moonshot in soft commodities due to weather cycles, and much more.

RVTV Encore: Michael Schneider  

A conversation on April 4, 2016 between Grant Williams and Michael Schneider, Chief Investment Officer of Brookline Partners.

Jeffrey Christian: Precious Metals, Macro Drivers, and More  

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss U.S. Dollar predictions and the range-bound outlook, Brexit contagion and potential impacts on gold and silver, rejecting old mental models with unprecedentedly low real and nominal interest rates, degradation of global political cooperation, Trump vs. Clinton implications for global markets and precious metals, and much more.

Art Berman: Labor Day Weekend Oil Special  

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss looking beyond absolute inventory numbers and gleaning insights from comparative inventories, continued time-spread compression reflecting producer hedging or lack of concern for a storage crisis, feedback loop of insanity in inventory builds and production, and much more.

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