The Morning Call

The Morning Call


Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead.


That Was The Year That Was  

As the markets quieten down for the holiday break NAB’s David de Garis joins Phil Dobbie to reflect on the tumultuous year we’ve just been through: Trump, Brexit, the rise of far-right politics and the tide of anti-immigration fervour. What has it meant for the markets and how will it all play out in 2017? Join us for our final edition of the year – and have a very Merry Christmas.

DOW teases, Krona climbs, D-Day for Dei Paschi  

It seems unlikely that Italy’s largest Bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, will meet today’s timetable to raise five billion Euros and provide a lifeline beyond March. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, this means the Italian government will have to bail them out. We also look at why the Swedish Krona climbed 1.4 percent overnight and look ahead to New Zealand’s GDP figures. Plus, when will the DOW pass the psychological 20,000 points barrier?

RBA Goes Delphic, Yen Falls, Whilst Shares are in a Holiday Mood  

Tapas Strickland shows his knowledge of the Classics, describing yesterday’s RBA minutes as Delphic, in places. He also talks to Phil Dobbie about the future of the Yen, the continued rise in share markets and NAB’s outlook for 2017.

Yellen, Yen and MYEFO  

Janet Yellen gave a talk this morning reinforcing the commentary around the strength of the US economy, pointing to steady growth in jobs and rising living standards. A less rosy picture for Australia, of course, but, not bad enough for ratings agencies to act. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether S&P and Moody’s might just be delaying till the New Year? And we look ahead to today’s meeting of the Bank of Japan and the market reaction to the assassination of Russia’s Ambassador to Turkey.

Drones, Dollars and Downgrades  

China’s capture of a US Navy Drone showed that the US dollar is not infallible. NAB’s Ray Attrill explains to Phil Dobbie that it highlights how significant geopolitical news will be on the markets in 2017. It could be a case of two steps forward, one step back. We also look ahead to today’s mid-year economic forecast and ask what impact a credit rating downgrade could have on the Aussie economy. And will Janet Yellen be a little more dovish when she talks about the US jobs market later today?

US Dollar Rises Further on Fed Rate Decision  

The US dollar continued to rise after the FOMC rate decision yesterday and Janet Yellen’s more Hawkish tone. In today’s edition of The Morning Call Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what the strength of the dollar means for Australia. There’s also speculation about whether the country will lose its AAA rating next week. Plus, the UK economy continues to surprise.

Fed raises rates – three more expected in 2017  

The US Fed delivered their anticipated 25 basis point rate hike this morning, but hey surprised markets by announcing an expectation of three further rises in 2017, one more than previously anticipated. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the impact on the markets and comments from Janet Yellen after the announcement.

Pound Rises, China shops, Australia Slows, the US Waits  

On today’s podcast Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the latest CPI figures from the UK, retail sales in China, the latest NAB Australian Business Survey and the timing for tomorrow’s anticipated US rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

Oil up, bonds down, China wobbles  

Oil continues its upwards trajectory so, in this edition of The Morning Call podcast, Phil Dobbie asks NAB's Rodrigo Catril what it's doing to US bond yields. We also examine the reasons behind China's share-scare, with the Shanghai Composite down 2.5 percen t at close yesterday, and the rise in the value of the pound. Plus, why we should all be paying close attention to the NAB Business Survey today.

Saudi’s ‘Shock and Awe’ on Oil  

Shock and awe is how one London based analyst described the Saudi’s decision to cut oil production even further at the weekend. NAB’s Ray Attrill isn’t as prone to such extreme Bush-esque expressions, but he says to Phil Dobbie this could add to further inflationary pressures next year. We also look at the buoyancy in the US share market, the fate of the Aussie dollar and the Fed Reserve meeting this week with the widely-anticipated rate hike.

Confusion in Europe – Less Easing For Longer  

Mario Draghi had the markets wondering whether the European Central Bank would extend its bond buying program or start tapering its commitment. In the end, it seems, they’ve done both. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the resulting market confusion, which has seen the European dollar lose ground – the opposite of what you’d expect when a central bank promises to pump millions more into the economy.

A gloomy day for the UK and OPEC  

Sterling was the worst performing G10 currency overnight, in part because of worst than expected industrial production figures. But, Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland if Brexit reality could also be setting in. There’s also some discussion on the muted market reaction to Australia’s poor GDP figures yesterday, and why oil prices are on the slide again.

The Day the Aussie Economy Shifts into Reverse Gear  

The NAB forecasts that today’s Aussie GDP figures will show growth sliding into negative territory. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s currency strategist Rodrigo Catril whether this is a blip, or the start of a trend? We also look at capital flows from China and speculation over an announcement on the ECB’s QE program tomorrow.

Italy’s woes barely raise an eyebrow, whilst US keeps smiling  

Matteo Renzi’s resignation raised barely a flicker on the markets, despite the question of what Italy does now to protect its banks. The US, meanwhile has more positive news with a stronger than expected ISM non-manufacturing index. And, NAB’s David de Garis talks to Phil Dobbie about today’s RBA announcement and what we’ll glean from Balance of Payment figures. Plus, farewell to John Keys.

ECB and RBA meet, both with issues to tackle  

The RBA meets on Tuesday, a day ahead of the release of Australian GDP figures expected to show the economy shrank a little last quarter. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what the Reserve Bank’s response is likely to be. Meanwhile the European Central Bank is expected to announce whether or not it will extend its QE program – Ray says we can expect a market reaction either way. Meanwhile, brace yourself for the results to the Italian referendum. Will Matteo Renzi, the Italian PM, still be in a job at the end of the day?

Oil rises higher, Black Sunday for Europe?  

Talk of oil cuts has been enough to see prices rise again overnight, up 15% this week. So what’s it doing to bond yield and the US dollar? Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about that and the impact of Italy’s referendum and Austria’s Presidential election, both this weekend.

Oil surges on news of OPEC production cut  

Oil prices shot up when OPEC announced that a deal had been reached in Vienna, giving specia dispensation to Iran, but overall cuts across the group. In today’s Morning Call Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill how high we can expect prices to go. We also look at the dip in Aussie housing approvals and jobs growth in the US, as well as looking ahead to the Australian Private Capital Expenditure figures due out today.

OPEC woes, Aussie housing slows and Kiwi Dollar Grows  

OPEC meets today but will they reach a deal? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril suggests to Phil Dobbie that even a small deal could have a marked impact on the price of oil which is showing enormous elasticity either way. We also hear about yesterday’s less than optimistic outlook for Aussie housing and reflect on the strength of the New Zealand economy. Plus, US inflation figures out today.

US Takes a Breather With All Eyes on Europe  

It seems everything from yesterday is in reverse: US stocks have fallen (slightly), oil is back on the climb and the pound is falling. Maybe the events in Europe are taking attention away from Donald Trump for a while, in particular the prospects for the Italian banking sector, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill.

An Uncertain Week for Oil Prices and Europe's Future  

Oil prices, of course, have a massive bearing on the rate of inflation throughout the world. That's why the outcome of OPEC talks this week are crucial. Meanwhile, we're just a week away from the rereun of the Austrian election and the Italian constitutional referendum, both of which could set the path for far right parties to claim power and jeopardise the future of the European Union. So, a pretty important week ahead.

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