The Morning Call

The Morning Call

Australia

Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead.

Episodes

Confusion in Europe – Less Easing For Longer  

Mario Draghi had the markets wondering whether the European Central Bank would extend its bond buying program or start tapering its commitment. In the end, it seems, they’ve done both. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the resulting market confusion, which has seen the European dollar lose ground – the opposite of what you’d expect when a central bank promises to pump millions more into the economy.

A gloomy day for the UK and OPEC  

Sterling was the worst performing G10 currency overnight, in part because of worst than expected industrial production figures. But, Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland if Brexit reality could also be setting in. There’s also some discussion on the muted market reaction to Australia’s poor GDP figures yesterday, and why oil prices are on the slide again.

The Day the Aussie Economy Shifts into Reverse Gear  

The NAB forecasts that today’s Aussie GDP figures will show growth sliding into negative territory. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s currency strategist Rodrigo Catril whether this is a blip, or the start of a trend? We also look at capital flows from China and speculation over an announcement on the ECB’s QE program tomorrow.

Italy’s woes barely raise an eyebrow, whilst US keeps smiling  

Matteo Renzi’s resignation raised barely a flicker on the markets, despite the question of what Italy does now to protect its banks. The US, meanwhile has more positive news with a stronger than expected ISM non-manufacturing index. And, NAB’s David de Garis talks to Phil Dobbie about today’s RBA announcement and what we’ll glean from Balance of Payment figures. Plus, farewell to John Keys.

ECB and RBA meet, both with issues to tackle  

The RBA meets on Tuesday, a day ahead of the release of Australian GDP figures expected to show the economy shrank a little last quarter. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what the Reserve Bank’s response is likely to be. Meanwhile the European Central Bank is expected to announce whether or not it will extend its QE program – Ray says we can expect a market reaction either way. Meanwhile, brace yourself for the results to the Italian referendum. Will Matteo Renzi, the Italian PM, still be in a job at the end of the day?

Oil rises higher, Black Sunday for Europe?  

Talk of oil cuts has been enough to see prices rise again overnight, up 15% this week. So what’s it doing to bond yield and the US dollar? Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about that and the impact of Italy’s referendum and Austria’s Presidential election, both this weekend.

Oil surges on news of OPEC production cut  

Oil prices shot up when OPEC announced that a deal had been reached in Vienna, giving specia dispensation to Iran, but overall cuts across the group. In today’s Morning Call Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill how high we can expect prices to go. We also look at the dip in Aussie housing approvals and jobs growth in the US, as well as looking ahead to the Australian Private Capital Expenditure figures due out today.

OPEC woes, Aussie housing slows and Kiwi Dollar Grows  

OPEC meets today but will they reach a deal? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril suggests to Phil Dobbie that even a small deal could have a marked impact on the price of oil which is showing enormous elasticity either way. We also hear about yesterday’s less than optimistic outlook for Aussie housing and reflect on the strength of the New Zealand economy. Plus, US inflation figures out today.

US Takes a Breather With All Eyes on Europe  

It seems everything from yesterday is in reverse: US stocks have fallen (slightly), oil is back on the climb and the pound is falling. Maybe the events in Europe are taking attention away from Donald Trump for a while, in particular the prospects for the Italian banking sector, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill.

An Uncertain Week for Oil Prices and Europe's Future  

Oil prices, of course, have a massive bearing on the rate of inflation throughout the world. That's why the outcome of OPEC talks this week are crucial. Meanwhile, we're just a week away from the rereun of the Austrian election and the Italian constitutional referendum, both of which could set the path for far right parties to claim power and jeopardise the future of the European Union. So, a pretty important week ahead.

No Thanksgiving for Europe or Emerging Markets  

The US dollar has been fairly flat overnight, but it’s risen a lot this month. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains to Phil Dobbie, this is placing a lotof pressure on emerging markets. Conversely, it could help lift inflation in Japan, but probably not soon enough to show in today’s CPI figures. And a gloomy outlook overnight from the European Central Bank raises questions of any early tapering next year.

Positive data pushes US bond yields and dollar even higher, the Yuan lower  

A rebound in durable goods orders and heightened consumer confidence, blended with Trump euphoria, has pushed the US dollar and bond yields higher yet. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains to Phil Dobbie it’s also weakening the Chinese Yuan, which could have flow on effects for Australia. That’s the last thing we need with lower than expected construction figures potentially signalling a weakening growth rate. Could our Q3 GDP fall in to negative territory?

Chris Kent talks it up whilst Trump closes doors  

Chris Kent, Chief Economist at the RBA, talked up the strength of the Aussie economy at an economists’ dinner last night, thanks to the rise in commodity prices. Meanwhile Donald Trump has made it clear he will not renege on his plan to abandon the Trans Pacific Partnership, saying he will cancel it on his first day in office. Meanwhile, the pound loses ground as the optimism around a transitional Brexit of yesterday might not even have lasted out the day.

S&P breaks ceiling on oil spike. UK looks for big spending and softer Brexit  

The S&P 500 hit a new high overnight, largely because of a spike in oil prices as Vladimir Putin steps in and says he expects OPEC to reach a deal next week, and agreeing to limit production in Russia. Getting that sense of déjà vu? Meanwhile, the pound has risen by one percent on the back of soft Brexit talks from Theresa May and speculation that Chancellor Hammond will spend big in his Autumn statement tomorrow.

US Bonds and the Aussie Dollar – a reaction or a trend?  

US bond prices have dipped significantly since Trump’s surprise election victory. On this morning’s podcast Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether we can expect them to bounce back, or stay where they are? Similarly, the Aussie dollar, which is heading down to 70 cents, is this a short term reaction or the sign of something deeper? We also look at two possible disruptions in Europe – the Italian referendum and Austrian elections, both two weeks away.

Yellen almost pushes the go button whilst Brits continue to defy gravity  

Janet Yellen came as close as she could to declaring a December rate hike, whilst there are more signs that the US economy is doing well. As NAB's Tapas Strickland explains to Phil Dobbie, new data shows jobless claims are the lowest in 42 years. Meanwhile Britain continues to defy gravity with strong retail sales, but an expensive lack-of-plan for Brexit could be just around the corner.

US Dollar Hits High, Markets Take Stock of Trump  

The US dollar reached a 13 year high overnight with the December rate hike almost written in concrete. Meanwhile, Phil Dobbie asks NAB's David De Garis whether an otherwise quiet day's trading suggests the markets are taking stock of the Trump presidency - will he be a good news or not?

Australia’s buffers, the new mediocrity and Britain’s Brexit plan  

On today’s podcast NAB’s David De Garis talks to Phil Dobbie about the IMF’s Consultation Report on Australia and RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s talk in Melbourne last night. Plus the leaked memo that outlines the UK’s plan for Brexit … any guesses?

Massive bonds sell-off continues, plus words from Philip Lowe  

On today’s edition Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the continued bond sell-off amidst speculation on the inflationary impact of a Trump Presidency, plus the near certain increase in US interest rates in December. We also look at what we might glean from RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s talk today and the impact of the earthquake on New Zealand markets: not much, so far.

A Week to Revisit Reality?  

Perhaps more surprising than the Trump victory last week was the market response. On today’s Morning Call Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether we can expect a reality check anytime soon, as the detail of Trump’s policies become evident. Some are being watered down, on others, such as the wall, he remains adamant. Others, like his reliance on the Laffer Curve to fund infrastructure, are open to debate.

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