Episodes

  • Large Voter Turnout

    Voter Turnout Appears Steady; Enthusiasm Running High (Gallup)

    Who Will Win?

    Who Do Voters Think Will Win (Navigator)

    Cookie Poll

    Three Brothers Bakery Presidential Cookie Poll Has Accurately Predicted Winner of Last 3 Elections (KHOU)

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  • Trump Job Approval

    Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

    General Election

    Presidential General Election (RealClear Politics)

    Coronavirus

    Coronavirus Upends Nation, as Three in Four Americans' Lives Changed by Pandemic (ABC News/Ipsos)

    Governors Get High Marks For Handling COVID-19 Crisis (Monmouth)

    Tracking Public Opinion on the Coronavirus (Morning Consult)

    Public Opinion on Coronavirus (Navigator)

    Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index: Everything's Worse (Axios/Ipsos)

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  • Florida Democratic Primary

    Who Different Groups Supported (New York Times)

    National Democratic Primary

    National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    Trump Job Approval

    Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

    General Election

    General Election (RealClear Politics)

    Coronavirus

    Trump Earns Mixed Grades on Coronavirus Response (Politico/Morning Consult)

    Coronavirus (NPR/PBS/Marist)

    Coronavirus (Reutors/Ipsos)

    Public Trusts Health Agencies More Than Trump (Axios)

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  • Democratic Primary

    Florida Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    Biden Crushes Sanders In Democratic Race (Quinnipiac)

    Trump Job Approval

    Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

    General Election

    General Election (RealClear Politics)

    Approval of U.S. Congressional Republicans Tops Democrats (Gallup)

    Coronavirus

    Trump and the Coronavirus (CNN)

    Americans Divided on Party Lines Over Risk From Coronavirus (Reuters/Ipsos)

    Republicans are Twice as Likely as Democrats to View Coronavirus Coverage as Exaggerated (Axios/Survey Monkey)

    About One-Fifth of Democrats and Republicans get Political News in a Kind of Media Bubble (Pew Research Center)

    92% of Americans Dating as Normal Despite Coronavirus (OKcupid)

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  • Democratic Primary

    National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    Florida Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    Michigan Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    Trump Approval

    Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

    General Election

    General Election (RealClear Politics)

    Corona Beer and the Coronavirus

    The Spread of the Coronavirus Couldn't Have Come at a Worse Time for Corona Beer(CNN)

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  • Democratic National Primary

    Democratic National Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    South Carolina Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    Debate Watchers Believe Bernie Sanders Made the Best Case for Defeating Trump (YouGov)

    Trump Job Approval

    Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

    General Election

    General Election (RealClear Politics)

    Republicans Increasingly Feel Like They’re ‘Winning’ Politically; Democrats Feel the Opposite (Pew Research Center)

    Cornoavirus

    How do Attitudes to Coronavirus Differ Across the World? (YouGov)

    High Confidence in Government to Handle Coronavirus (Gallup)

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  • Democratic National Primary

    Democratic National Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    Sanders Opens Up Double-Digit National Lead in Primary Race (NBC News/WSJ)

    Sanders Leads The Field, Bloomberg Qualifies For His 1st Debate (NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist)

    Nevada Primary

    Nevada Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    Sanders Has Strong Lead in Nevada(Data for Progress)

    South Carolina Primary

    South Carolina Democratic Primary(FiveThirtyEight)

    Americans and the Election

    Americans Generally Upbeat About Election Campaign (Gallup)

    Faith in Elections in Relatively Short Supply in U.S. (Gallup)

    Trump Job Approval

    Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

    National General Election

    National General Election(RealClear Politics)

    Bogus Respondents

    Assessing the Risks to Online Polls From Bogus Respondents (Pew Research Center)

    Chucking a Dead Chicken

    Is Chucking a Dead Chicken a Fun Bar Event or Disrespectful to Animals? (Thorold News)

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  • Democratic Primary

    National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    Who's Ahead in New Hampshire (FiveThirtyEight)

    Sanders Takes Top Spot In Dem Primary As Biden Falls (Quinnipac)

    New Hampshire Democratic Primary Exit Poll Results and Analysis (Wash Post)

    Trump Approval

    Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

    General Election

    Trump vs. Klobucha (RealClear Politics)

    Most Expect Trump Will Be Reelected (Monmouth)

    Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities (Gallup)

    Impeachment Vote

    Most Utahns pleased with Mitt Romney’s vote, but 60% of GOP has negative reaction (Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics)

    Valentine’s Day

    Valentine's Day poll: American's claim this dinner idea is most underrated (Instacart)

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  • On this 5th Anniversary episode, Kristen and Margie are joined by founder of FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver. Nate founded Five Thirty Eight after being tired of the media covering politics with a lack of data.

    Iowa Primary

    The three cover the topic of Iowa and how the polls should be looked at along with the actual results in Iowa. Nate breaks down Iowa’s system of using preferences in voting in their primary process and discusses how that makes Iowa difficult to poll.

    The Des Moines Register, Ann Selzer poll was not published due to an error in polling. However, it was ended up being leaked prior to the Iowa Caucus. Nate believes that human error is a part of anything in life, even polling. In the case of the Ann Selzer poll he believes that the errors in the poll could have been fixed and published at a later date, instead of the chaos that ensued with the errors in the poll due to a tight deadline that was set.

    Models in Polling

    A model is a statistical algorithm that produces results. In polling models are statistics that are used to represent the world. Nate discusses the difficulties behind trying to build a model for the entire Democratic Nomination process. He shares that FiveThirtyEight focuses on predicting the outcome and as a result they focus more on topline numbers.

    The Silent Trump Vote

    It has been claimed that silent Trump voters played a role in the 2016 election, Kristen asks Nate if silent or shy Trump voters could play a roll in the upcoming 2020 Presidential election.

    Find Nate Silver on Twitter @NateSilver538

    Listen to the FiveThirtyEight Podcast Here!

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  • National Democratic Primary

    National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    2020 Democratic Primary (Morning Consult)

    Biden and Sanders are breaking away from the pack of candidates among Democrats nationwide (Washington Post/ABC News)

    Electability in the Democratic Primary Polls (HuffPost/YouGov)

    Iowa Primary

    Iowa Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    Sanders Seizes Lead in Volatile Iowa Race (New York Times/Siena College)

    New Hampshire Primary

    New Hampshire Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    Sanders, Buttigieg top Democratic field in New Hampshire (NBC News/Marist)

    California Primary

    Bernie Sanders grabs lead in California presidential primary (UC Berkeley Institute)

    Trump Job Approval

    Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

    Trump Impeachment

    Americans still divided on Trump’s removal from office (Wash Post/ABC News)

    General Election: Trump vs Klobuchar (RealClear Politics)

    Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)

    Nearly 6 in 10 oppose Trump’s use of executive privilege to muzzle witnesses (Politico)

    Impeachment Witness Testimony (Quinnipiac)

    Eating Meat

    Nearly One in Four in U.S. Have Cut Back on Eating Meat (Gallup)

    Four in 10 Americans Have Eaten Plant-Based Meats (Gallup)

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  • Democratic Primary

    Who's Ahead in the National Poll? (FiveThirtyEight)

    Who's Ahead in Iowa? (FiveThirtyEight)

    Who's Ahead in New Hampshire? (FiveThirtyEight)

    Sanders Widens Lead In N.H. (WBUR)

    Trump Approval

    Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

    Trump Third Year Sets New Standard for Party Polarization (Gallup)

    General Election

    General Election: Trump vs. Klobuchar (RealClear Politics)

    Trump Impeachment

    Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)

    Majority Support Allowing New Impeachment Evidence (Monmouth)

    By a Narrow Margin, Americans Say Senate Trial Should Result in Trump’s Removal (Pew Research Center)

    Senator Approval Rankings (Morning Consult)

    New Maine Polling on Susan Collins and Impeachment (GHY Research Group)

    Abortion Laws

    Do state laws on abortion reflect public opinion? (Pew Research Center)

    Dissatisfaction With U.S. Abortion Laws at New High (Gallup)

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  • 2020 Democratic Primary

    Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    Iowa Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    Why Warren Needs To Play To Win — And That Includes Beating Sanders (FiveThirtyEight)

    Who Won The January Democratic Debate? (FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos)

    Biden holds wide lead among black voters in Democratic presidential race (Washington Post/Ipsos)

    2020 General Election

    National General Election (FiveThirtyEight)

    Trump trails 2020 Democratic contenders in Michigan (EPIC-MRA of Lansing)

    Trump Approval/Impeachment

    Trump Job Approval (RealClearPolitics)

    Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)

    Issues That Matter to Voters

    Several Issues Tie as Most Important in 2020 Election (Gallup)

    Iran

    Majority supports Trump’s decision to not strike back against Iran (Politico/Morning Consult)

    More Americans Disapprove Of Trump's Handling Of Iran Than Approve (NPR/Marist)

    Majority of U.S. Public Says Trump’s Approach on Iran Has Raised Chances of a Major Conflict (Pew Research Center)

    The Oscars

    Which Film Should Win Best Picture? (Hollywood Reporter)

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  • Party Preferences

    U.S. Party Preferences Steady During Trump Era (Gallup)

    Democratic Polling for Debate

    DNC Tells Pollsters to Do More Polls (NewYorkTimes)

    Democratic Primary

    Sanders starts 2020 in strong position in Iowa and New Hampshire (CBS News)

    Biden Is Democrats’ Best Bet to Beat Trump (Morning Consult)

    Trump Job Approval/Impeachment

    Trump Job Approval (Real Clear)

    Do Americans Support Impeachment? (Real Clear)

    A Majority Of Americans Think The Evidence Supports Trump’s Removal (FiveThirtyEight)

    Geoff Garin on Hart Poll(Hart Research/Law Works Poll)

    Iran

    Can You Locate Iran? Few Voters Can(Morning Consult)

    What Americans Think About Trump’s Iran Policy (Huff Post/YouGov)

    Americans increasingly critical of Trump's record on Iran, most expect war (Reuters/Ipsos)

    Celebrities and Politics

    When Stars Like Taylor Swift Get Political, Do Voters Listen? (Hollywood Reporter/Morning Consult)

    #MeToo/Time’s Up

    Americans Think #MeToo and Time's Up Are Making Progress (CBS)

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  • Polling Trends in Previous Elections

    In Leaked Memo, Andrew Yang Asks DNC for More Debate Polls (DailyBeast)

    2008 Iowa Republican Caucus (RealClear Politics)

    2008 Iowa Democratic Caucus(RealClear Politics)

    2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)

    2016 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus(RealClear Politics)

    2016 Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)

    2020 Presidential Election

    Who’s ahead in the national polls? (FiveThirtyEight)

    2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

    Trump Impeachment

    Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)

    Most Admired Man

    Obama, Trump Tie as Most Admired Man in 2019 (Gallup)

    Fun Charts of 2019

    Our favorite Pew Research Center data visualizations of 2019 (Pew Research)

    The 56 Best — And Weirdest — Charts We Made In 2019 (FiveThirtyEight)

    What Black Americans Want

    A Nuanced Picture of What Black Americans Want in 2020 (Third Way/JCPES)

    New Year, New You

    Top 10 New Year’s Resolutions for 2020 (Polly/Advanced Symbolics Inc.)

    Almost Half of People Stick to a New Year’s Resolution (Ipsos)

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  • Democratic Primary

    What Makes Our New 2020 Democratic Primary Polling Averages Different (FiveThirtyEight)

    Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

    Biden and Sanders holding steady (RealClear Politics)

    Trump Approval/Impeachment

    President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

    Tracking “impeach and remove” (FiveThirtyEight)

    Trump job approval ticks up, views on impeachment steady (Fox News)

    Peace at Thanksgiving

    Only About 3% Of Americans Actually Fought About Politics On Thanksgiving (HuffPost/YouGov)

    Dumbest Takes on Polling

    Why public opinion polls don’t include the same number of Republicans and Democrats(PewResearch)

    The Twilight of Landline Interviewing (PewResearch)

    Year in Review

    Bullock Misses First Debate (New York Times)

    Republicans Generation Gap (New York Times)

    Analytics Jumpstart (Echelon)

    Holiday Shopping

    2019 Winter Holiday Trends (NRF)

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  • Democratic Primary

    Biden and Sanders holding steady (RealClear Politics)

    Second Choice Candidates (Quinnipiac)

    Trump Approval / Impeachment

    Tracking “impeach and remove” (FiveThirtyEight)

    Tracking Trump Approval (RealClearPolitics)

    Who was the better President?

    Democrats answer! (Monmouth)

    Trust in the media

    Republicans less likely to trust the news media (Pew Research)

    UK Elections

    Love, Actually?

    Current predictions (YouGov)

    Travel

    What do people steal from hotels? (Wellness Heaven)

    Unacceptable Airplane Behavior (YouGov)

    Christmas Trees

    Real versus Artificial (YouGov)

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  • 2020 Presidental Election

    Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

    General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)

    Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)

    The State of the Democratic Primary (Morning Consult)

    The Economist/You Gov Poll

    California Voters Wanted Kamala Harris to Drop Out of Presidential Race (Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for The Times)

    Impeachment

    Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

    Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)

    UK Election

    Europe Poll of Polls (Politico)

    The key findings from our MRP (YouGov)

    Poll Reveals Record-Breaking 30 Percent of Public Plan to Vote ‘tactically’ in General Election (ERS)

    Giving Tuesday

    Giving Tuesday poll: The causes Americans support (Axios)

    ‘All I Want For Christmas’ tops most annoying song poll, still tops Billboard’s Holiday 100 (Huawei)

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  • 2020 Presidental Election

    Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

    General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)

    Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)

    CBS News Battleground Tracker (CBS News)

    Impeachment

    Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

    Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)

    Impeachment Hearings (ABC/Ipsos)

    Multi-Party Democracy

    What if the U.S. Were a Multi-Party Democracy? (Echelon)

    British Election

    General Election 2019: The polling average might show a Labour surge, but the polls themselves don't (iPolitics)

    Have you decided yet? Who will win the debate? (Lord Ashcroft)

    Medicare For All

    Blue Wall Voices Project (KFF/Cook)

    Majority of likely Democratic caucusgoers shy away from 'Medicare for All' (Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll)

    Thanksgiving

    More than 165 million people expected to shop over five-day Thanksgiving weekend (NRF/Prosper Insights & Analytics)

    Turkey Day Exposé: How Americans Really Feel About the Big Dinner (Instacart/Harris Poll)

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  • 2020 Presidental Election

    Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

    General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)

    Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)

    Poll: Bloomberg's Potential Run is a Flop With Voters so Far (Politico/Morning Consult)

    Biden Holds Slight Lead In New Hampshire Dem Primary (Quinnipiac)

    Impeachment

    Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

    Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)

    Framing the Next Step on Impeachment (Navigator)

    Immigration/Supreme Court

    Immigration/Border Security (Monmouth)

    Immigration (CNN/SSRS)

    Poll Finds Confidence in U.S. Supreme Court Overall, Though More Pronounced Among Conservatives (Marquette)

    Veterans

    Go Beyond the ‘Thank You’ (Cohen Veterans Network)

    The American Veteran Experience and the Post-9/11 Generation (Pew)

    New Poll of U.S. Troops and Veterans Reveals Their Thoughts on Current Military Policies (Smithsonian/Stars & Stripes)

    Anxiety Over the Holidays

    The worst thing to talk about during the holidays is not politics (YouGov)

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  • 2020 Presidential Election

    Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

    General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)

    One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds (The New York Times Upshot/Siena College)

    Poll: Biden Holds Significant Lead over Warren, Sanders in Nevada; Top Issue is Electing Someone Who Can Beat Trump (The Nevada Independent)

    Kentucky Governor - Bevin vs. Beshear (RealClear Politics)

    Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

    Impeachment

    Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)

    Partisan Opinion on Trump Digs in (Monmouth University Poll)

    Trump Approval (Washington Post/ABC Poll)

    Fish Pictures

    Love at First Bite? (Fishbrain)

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