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Risk It for the Biscuit: How to Work out What your Risk Tolerance is, and What is Risk Profiling?  

On this week's episode of the Rentvesting Podcast we're talking about risk profiling. This episode is based on a question from Chris, looking at a bird's eye view of how you can be thinking of investing. We're breaking down why people make decisions and what risk profiling is based on. The question was around where someone should really be investing, as opposed to where someone does invest.

 

We'll run through what determines that individual preference along with what it should be

A lot of people who have lost money in the share market are now moving to property. This is based on psychology, if you're risk tolerant and don't mind things like gambling, running with scissors, swimming after you've just eaten - these sorts of people are considered risk tolerant. The other

On the other side of this are those considered risk adverse, they don't like taking risks in life.

Based on that fact, that starts to determine where, if they're looking to invest, they do.

If someone is risk tolerant they might go for penny shares where those companies could go up or down a lot. While someone who is risk averse might just keep all their money in cash.

 

What's the risk reward concept? There's low risk like cash, then there a high risk.

In financial markets or investment, risk isn't like everyday risk. Risk is considered through volatility. The risk-return equation says the higher the volatility you accept, the more movement that can occur, the higher your return should be.

For instance cash, cash can't lose value unless hyperinflation occurs. Cash doesn't move up and down, it will get you different interest rates but as you go down the chain of assets that have higher growth components because they go up and down, they now have volatility. The greater they go up, the greater they can go down.

If we break it down on the chain as far as what's the least and most volatile:

Bonds have a slight volatility, but generally, they're more an income asset. Property and shares, when they have growth components to them - you can break it down to high or low growth depending on the area. You can buy in blue chip suburbs where the yield might be lower, but high-risk suburbs like mining towns could have high yield but also could drop and then you could be at risk. As for companies, the banks don't move so much but smaller companies have more risk involved and that volatility can be at 80% a day.

 

How do people determine when they invest in that risk profile?

Generally, people just determine it on their own, they invest in what they feel is right for them. Sometimes it's easy to miss the point though and what you're trying to achieve.

Individual needs + psychology = risk profile.

Someone who is young and can handle the risk could go for property, because they have time to invest in a long-term investment. While someone who is defensive in retirement should go for 30% growth and 70% defensive.

 

Are there any one size fits all rules?

Not really, it depends on the individual. I've seen some 20-year-olds who don't want to invest in any shares and they think they're too risky. Then I've seen some individuals in their 70's have invested in their shares all their life and love the up and down changes of it. While even though they need more defensive assets at that time.

Although there might be broad profiling depending on the age and time you're at in your life, it really depends on the person.

For myself, when I try to figure out where funds should be invested the first thing we look at is their individual means and how long they want to be investing the money for.

If it's for a home deposit that's 2 - 4 years and those funds shouldn't be invested as it's too short term. But if it's for long term 30 - 40 years that can allow a lot of growth, especially if there are regular investments, it's better to split out the investments over time.

 

What are some questions on how you determine a risk profile?

Return requirements

Return requirements mean that planning and forecasting are required in order to get 8% return per annum. So working back from how much you need in your super, we look at how much you need as an underlying return. If you cut out growth from the equation:

Income + Growth = Return.

You've halved a lot of the equation and if you're defensively invested, you'll be getting income from cash and bonds and a little bit of growth. But if you get that solely, you're likely to get a lower percent return than if you've got more growth allocation over the long term.

So that's the first one looking at return requirements.

How much to invest

If you've got a lot to invest and more money to diversify, that can often allow for a bit more risk to be taken on. Just generally, we ask them what their reaction to case scenarios would look like. For example, if your investment goes down by 50% how would you react? What's the max level of volatility you want to accept in a portfolio? This is looking at their psychology of how tolerant they are.

This is looking at their psychology of how tolerant they are.

Figure out what sort of needs you're after.

We also test their understanding with questions like - say the portfolio does drop by 25% how would you react? Would you invest more? So that one helps determine a lot of their knowledge around investment

So that one helps determine a lot of their knowledge around investment and volatility. It's about re-educating, as volatility occurs, so the best thing to do is not to sell, because selling when it goes down guarantees you will lose money.

If a share goes from 100 to 50, it then needs to go up by 100% to go back where it was. If you invest at that point, then your upwards return isn't that great. So if you added another 50, then any additional growth after is just a plus.

In summary, shares are the highest risk - between shares, property, fixed interest and cash.

 

Case Study

Looking at case studies at a high level, if Bob is a young investor and has only invested once (30 years old), what is the portfolio for someone who is a bit risk averse but wants to grow?

As this person has probably been burnt by investments before, they probably will try and avoid it. For this individual, it would be about reeducating them. If you're in your 20's and your investment is in super, let's have a look at the difference between keeping your funds in cash or taking on additional risk over a 30 year period.

First of all, don't sell! If you have a surplus of cash or you manage them wisely, they shouldn't drop that much.

Long term, the market does recover.

 

On the other side, Sarah loves to gamble, she's a bit older, the late 50's and has a decent amount of money. Is it bad for her to go high growth, high risk?

It's up to her. If she's about to retire, what will she live on?

If Sarah has a decent amount of money to retire on and draw an income, it's probably better for her to be more defensive. If she's 100% invested in shares, then 40% of their value could go down.

 

Key takeaways Risk profiling is based on your individual needs and not what your friends are doing or what the market does. It's based on your individual profile - answering the above questions, understanding what you can handle if it goes up or down. Changing the perception of letting external things determine where you invest and looking at what is the right thing for you towards your long term goal.

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Episode #327 – The Big Secret: Personal Risk  

Until you’ve come completely okay with failing, it’s going to be really hard to succeed.

On today’s episode Russell talks about how people are scared to take a risk because of the personal responsibility if they fail.

Here are some of the interesting things you will hear in this episode:

The biggest reason people are afraid to take risks and why it’s so scary. How Russell’s mission for the Mormon church helped prepare him to cope with rejection and failure. And why we shouldn’t be afraid of people seeing us fail because people only pay attention to themselves.

So listen below to find out why you shouldn’t be afraid to take some risks with your business.

---Transcript---

Good morning everybody, welcome back to Marketing In Your Car. It’s a rainy, rainy day here in Boise. It’s like a monsoon outside, it’s kind of fun. But it’s still spring break so I’m going to go get some stuff done for the next three hours and then I’m coming back to go roller skating with the kids. And our kids have never been roller skating before, so it’s going to be kind of a big deal and really hard, I’m sure. But it’ll be fun.

So I wanted to share with you guys today, something, a kind of cool interesting thing. I had my call with Tara a couple of days ago and on there we were talking about some of the things that make people successful and unsuccessful. There’s a lot that goes into it, but one of the things was really kind of interesting and fascinating, as we were talking about it. It is one of the biggest reasons why people don’t have success, and it has to do with….can you guys guess? Drum roll please…..

The personal risk involved. It wasn’t just risk, because there’s risk in everything. “What if I lose all my money?” there’s always a risk of whatever you’re going to try, but it’s a personal risk. How will I personally cope with this if I fail? What’s going to happen to me as a human being? What are people going to think about me? That’ll be the worst thing in the world. It’s interesting because, maybe it’s because most of you all know at this point, hopefully, that I am Mormon. So I spent two years on a mission. I was in New Jersey, Cherry Hill, New Jersey. I spent a lot of time knocking on doors and a lot of people telling me no. A lot of people yelling at me, a lot of people cursing me out in their native New Jersey tongue and it was fun.

It was scary at first though, not going to lie. I remember my very first day on the mission, I went out there with my companion and we started knocking on doors and I always assumed I was going to watch him knock for three or four weeks, then when I was ready I would go and do it. But that was not the case. The very first door he knocked on. He did his little thing, and the next door he knocked on the door and said, “You’re up.” And then stepped back.

I was like, “What? No.” So I’m like, all nervous so I say, “Hey my name is…” and I’m totally stuttering through this thing and about half way through, it was this cute little old lady who’d answered. I was like, she’s going to be so nice, we’re going to teach her and it’s going to be so great. Then boom, she slammed the door in the middle of my thing. Mid sentence, mid word probably. I’m like, “Huh, well that’s awkward.” And I remember at that time, I turned around in the driveway and we were walking back out and there were these cars driving by, and they started honking. And I was like, “Oh.” Because you guys remember, I grew up in Utah,  there’s always people when missionaries drive by, you honk and wave, “Oh it’s the missionaries.”

So I hear this honking and I’m like, “Oh cool. I’m a missionary now. This is so cool. They’re going to wave at me.” So I look back and these guys are waving at me, but not in the same way that I was used to do when I saw missionaries. They were honking and they were sticking their heads out the car and flipping me off,  and like “Go back to Utah!” I was like, “Oh man, these people hate us.” And at first it was really, really hard. But then, we knocked on more doors and more doors and eventually, thousands and thousands of doors, I stopped, I was so ashamed of myself with rejection. They’re not rejecting me, they’re rejecting something else, whatever, it’s all cool. And I was fine with it.

It’s interesting, if you look at, this is a side note for those who wonder. If you look at network marketing, or door to door sales, you notice one common theme. 90% of all the network marketing companies are founded in Utah, and 90% of all direct, door to door, like Cutco knives, alarm systems pest control, they’re all founded out of where? Utah. The reason why is because they have all these Mormon missionaries who have spend their whole life knocking on doors for 2 years and getting rejected. They have forgone, they no longer care, they don’t have this personal fear of rejection. So they’re able to do those things.

So I think maybe I’m kind of lucky because I have that so many times, being rejected, that I don’t really fear that much anymore. That’s what keeps a lot of people back. Just that fear of “What are people going to think if I try this and I don’t succeed?” All the personal risk of putting you out on the line. It’s scary.

It’s not so much the financial, I think sometimes we hide behind the financial. “Is it going to make sense? Or not make sense?” In fact, it was funny at Grant Cardone’s event, after we came back off the stage and I was in the back and he was all excited about the presentation and everything. And then he was like, “I’m going to get out there and tell everyone to buy. If they don’t have money, they should buy anyway, if you’re already broke, what’s an extra $1000 on your credit card. It doesn’t matter, just buy it.” I was like, at first kind of laughed, and I’m sure that’s one of his closing techniques. But I was like, it’s so true. If you’re already in debt, what’s an extra thousand bucks. But it’s the personal risk of what if I try this and fail. That’s the real fear. It’s not like, “My credit cards are almost maxed out.” Who cares? That doesn’t really matter when all is said and done.

It’s that personal risk of “What if I try this and it doesn’t work. I tried all these other things and it didn’t work.” In fact, I think that I have a lot of friends and family members who have gone through a lot of school. They keep going to school and they’ve got their bachelors and their masters and they keep going on and on and on. I think part of it is they like learning, but they’re so scared of jumping in and trying that they never do it, right.

Being an entrepreneur is less about learning in a formal setting. Formal setting’s is the safe happy place. Nothing could possibly go wrong. You study and learn and you take a test and fail or pass or whatever. But there’s no personal risk ever. So people stay in there forever. Being an entrepreneur is the opposite. You’re out there with no shield, no breastplate, no nothing. You’re running out and people are shooting arrows at you like crazy. And if you’re so scared of personal risk, you’re not going to be willing to run out there. You’re in trouble because it’s tough. Honestly.

It’s funny, the problems you have when you’re small versus the problems you have when you’re big. I remember being smaller and trying to figure out how to make more sells. Now we’re so big, it’s like how do we slow sales so we can keep up with customer support and the technology. There’s a whole new set of issues that come. But every single day there’s something. I remember I heard, I think Dan Kennedy said, once every month and entrepreneur faces a decision that either bankrupts their business or takes it to the next level. And that was back, direct mail days, radio, or TV. Stuff like that. Now days, I don’t know about you, but for me it’s a daily thing. Every day it’s like, alright. Put it back on. What’s the choice?

And I take personal responsibility. This is my choice, I think it’s going to work, I don’t know but let’s just go. Boom, we take it and we go and we go and we go. And I think instinctively you get better, but I make a lot of mistakes still. But instinctively get better and better at it. It’s interesting, in some of my coaching programs, one of the biggest things that people, I let everyone in my Inner Circle vox me. What’s interesting, most of the voxers that I get are people telling me, “this is what I want to do. Do you agree with that?”

It’s interesting because what they’re looking for is confirmation and again, there’s nothing wrong with this, I’m just explaining it. It’s interesting as I watch it. What they’re looking for is somebody else to hand the personal responsibility to if it fails. They want to be able to say, “Russell said this and so if it goes wrong, Russell told me this.” As opposed to “This is my business, my life, I’m going to try it out.” I’m okay with that. I don’t mind it. In fact, it’s what keeps me sharp, keeps me going. It’s really, really fun. I enjoy it. So I’m not saying it’s negative, I’m saying it’s interesting that that’s what most of the questions are that come to me.

It’s more like, they know the answer, they just want to be able to get me to approve it so that way if it goes wrong they’ve got somebody besides themselves to place the personal responsibility on. And it’s just fascinating to me. Even at the higher levels, there’s still that fear of personal responsibility. The personal risk. Those things that go into it. So I don’t know the right answer to that other than you should all get door to door sales jobs, or become Mormon missionaries and go get rejected for two years. I know for a lot of you guys, that’s not the right answer. But it’s becoming okay with that and realizing what’s the worst case scenario? If I try this thing and it fails, does anyone really know.

It’s like the credit card thing. An extra

Episode #134 – The Pre-Game Show Before My Firework War  

What I learned about calculated risk after having three people shoot thousands of dollars worth of fireworks at my head…

On this episode Russell talks about the firework war he is driving to. He discusses looking at the worst case scenario and figuring out if something you want to do is worth the risk.

Here are some fun things you will hear in today’s episode:

Some of the injuries that occurred last year and what Russell and the other people in the firework war learned from them. Why looking at the worst case scenario made it clear that a firework war was actually worth the risk. And how you can apply the concept of looking at the worst case scenario to your business.

So listen below to hear why having a war with fireworks is actually a good idea.

---Transcript---

Hey, everyone. This is Russell Brunson and welcome to Marketing in Your Car.

All right, guys and gals, tonight is a special night and I am bringing you along on the journey because you are special to me. You guys listen to me every single day, so because of that you get in on a part of my life that most people do not get to know about.

Today as I record this it is the Fourth of July. It is 9:46 P.M. and I am currently heading to our second annual Firework War. Some of you guys may be thinking, “What is a firework war?”

Well, what is a firework war? Imagine the most immature men that you know, people like me and the people I like hanging out with, and imagine that we go to one of our friend’s house who has a huge basketball court. We bring a bunch of pallets, obstacle courses, and a bunch of things, and we play three-on-three fireworks where we are shooting 400 roman candles and thousands of bottle rockets.

We also have the big bottle rockets, like the actual rocket heads. We have mortars; we have firecrackers; we have fountains; we have all sorts of stuff. We have enough stuff that we will be blowing things up for at least an hour, maybe two.

We spent at least double what we spent last year on it and it is insane. My wife is convinced I am going to die; my kids say I am going to die, but I am not going to die. I didn’t die last year. Last year we did have a few casualties. This is what makes me laugh because the guy kind of deserved this.

If you were going to a firework war and you knew the whole point of the game was to shoot fireworks at each other point-blank, not far away, but like point-blank fireworks, you would think you would wear long sleeves and pants, right? But, no, this dude wore short sleeves and shorts. Halfway through the firework war he got hit right in the arm with one of the big bottle rocket things and it totally put him out. It popped a blood vessel or something and it was spewing out blood. Luckily for us, the guy who has the house where we do the firework war, his dad is a doctor, so we had medical supervision on staff during the war. We had it wrapped it up and he was fine.

At first we had these fountains and we thought they were going to be dumb, so we didn’t use them. Then we found out if you light a fountain, they run for five minutes sometimes. We would light them and lob them over to the other guys’ side. One of them landed inside the box of fireworks and started setting off all of these other fireworks.

We were just thrashing these guys and they got so upset that the one guy picked up a mortar. Before we were shooting mortars in the air just for fun, just to kind of scare people and stuff like that. But he picked up a mortar, turned it at us, and shot it, and the kick-back from the mortar came back and smacked him in the collar-bone and actually shattered his collar-bone. He had to head to the ER. After he headed to the ER, we pulled somebody from the audience in and we continued the war. It was awesome!

That is what we are doing right now and it is going to be awesome. I am ten minutes away from it and I am excited. We have been working all week going to get all the fireworks. We mapped it out way better this year than last year. We realized which ones were our favorite kinds of fireworks and which ones were kind of lame. From that we got the right ones which is awesome.

The guys with whom I am playing have spent all day today setting up all of the obstacle courses. In fact, they did it in the middle of the obstacle course where we were kind of fighting. It is not an obstacle course. There are barriers and stuff so that when we are advancing and trying to attack them and they are trying to attack us, we are kind of safe. We have barriers and things we can hide behind.

In the middle of it, he took about $300 worth of fireworks and set them up all around this thing. We bought a bunch of this long fuse and with it we wrapped everything around. At the end for the grand finale, we are going to light that fuse and all lay on the ground and watch as $300 worth of fireworks go “pop-pop-pop-pop!” It is going to be amazing.

Another cool thing he does is to stream music, so we have music happening. There is a bleacher so that friends and family can come to watch. It is pretty intense. This is what is happening tonight and it is crazy.

Somebody has to be thinking, “Russell, why would you go and shoot fireworks at your friends?” like that is the stupidest thing in the world. There is a reason, not that it is a good reason. Hopefully, this will be the little nugget of value I will drop on you guys tonight before I go get fireworks shot at me.

For me it is assessing risk, right? My wife says, “What if you die?” and I say, “I’m not going to die.” Worst-case scenario based on last year is that I shatter my collar-bone. We know that was because of a mortar, so this year I am not shooting mortars at people. Boom! That possibility goes to almost zero, right?

Number two, you might get hit in the arm with something, so I wore long sleeves. I’m smart enough to cover that one, so the risk drops even lower. We have goggles and everything. Worst-case scenario, my hands might get burnt. In fact, I am betting they will get burnt tonight. They just do; that is part of fireworks.

That is the worst-case scenario. I cannot think of anything worse that could happen. For me, it is all about calculated risk. I am looking at something and saying, “What is the calculated risk in this thing?” Best-case scenario, we have an amazing time and it is awesome. Worst-case scenario, I burn my hands. I can deal with that, so it is okay. I can take the risk.

The same thing happens in business. When I get into business, I look at calculated risk. If this thing bombs, what is the worst-case scenario? If it is not that bad, I just do it. A lot of us do not think about what the calculated risks are. We just know there are things that make you nervous or keep you from moving forward and all of that kind of stuff, and you don’t.

However, you want to sit down and say, “What is the actual risk? If I do this and it doesn’t work, what is the worst-case scenario?” After you figure out the worst-case scenario, you have to be okay with it. If you are okay with it, you can run forward.

I did a whole podcast, probably about 100 episodes ago, talking about the worst-case scenario. The title probably was “Worst-case Scenario,” so, if you are interested in how I deal with that and how I use it as a tool to move forward quickly in business and in life and everything I want to accomplish, go back and listen to that podcast.

For tonight, worst-case scenario is that I am going to have an amazing time. We actually do have someone who is coming to film the whole thing, so I will have video footage. He is going to make a war documentary, so he is probably going to post that online somewhere. Make sure you are on my email list and make sure you check it out because it will be amazing.

That’s it, you guys. I am signing off. I am about to go blow someone up and I am excited. I appreciate you guys listening in. Have an awesome Fourth of July. If you are not in America, whatever you are celebrating this weekend, celebrate and have a good time. I will talk to you guys next week when we are back at the office.

Managing Project Risks (Part 1) with Dr. David Hillson  

Total Duration 22:09

Download episode 49

What comes to mind when you think of the term "risk"? In our workshops and keynotes regarding project management, the topic of risk inevitably is talked about, and in those discussions it's clear that one's views and attitudes about risk significantly impact how a project is managed.

A problem with risk is when we lose perspective on it. For example, "I won't get out of bed today because something bad could happen." But then there's flip side as well, where we leap from the platform exclaiming, "I hope the bungee cord is attached!"

Whether at work or in life, there are an endless number of things we could worry about, and I know plenty of leaders that admit they are good worriers! It's been said that one of the best antidotes for anxiety is action, and a way to move your team and project from worrying to action is risk management.

To talk about this issue I went to one of the clearest and most prolific voices on the topic, Dr. David Hillson. I've split my discussion with David into two episodes and look forward to sharing this first portion with you in this episode.

You can learn more about David Hillson at his website http://www.risk-doctor.com. You'll find helpful articles and links related to risk management.

In the second portion of this interview, David recommends a couple specific books, including Exploiting Future Uncertainty and Managing Risk in Projects. Also, you may want to check out Dr. Hillson's newest book The Failure Files: Perspectives on Failure.

Join me in the next episode where Dr. David Hillson and I talk about how to take the next step with risk management in your organization. Note: for my premium subscribers, your additional coaching episode will be published with the second portion of the interview.

Thank you for joining us for this episode of The People and Projects Podcast! Have a great week!

SNR #180: Jason Gill, PhD - Role of Ethnicity in Cardio-Metabolic Disease Risk  

Dr Jason Gill is a Reader in Exercise and Metabolic Health in the Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences at the University of Glasgow. He leads an active multi-disciplinary research group investigating the effects of exercise and diet on the prevention and management of vascular and metabolic diseases from the molecular to the whole-body level. Major research interests include: why certain population groups (particularly South Asians) appear to be particularly susceptible to the adverse effects of a `Westernised' lifestyle, and how lifestyle interventions can modulate this excess risk; the interactions between physical activity, energy balance, adiposity and disease risk; and the mechanisms by which exercise regulates lipoprotein metabolism.

He is a past Chair of the British Association of Sport and Exercise Sciences (BASES) Division of Physical Activity for Health and a member of the development groups for the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) guidelines for the prevention and treatment of obesity and for prevention of cardiovascular disease. Jason is Director of the MSc programme in Sport and Exercise Science & Medicine, and also plays an active role in communicating the science of physical activity, diet, obesity and cardio-metabolic risk to the widest possible audience including a number of appearances on TV documentaries and organisation of Understanding of Science events for the general public.

In This Episode We Discuss: Modifiable factors that influence cardio-metabolic disease risk Differences in diabetes and cardio-metabolic disease risk between different ethnic groups Is this increased disease risk a function of ethnicity alone or a mismatch between the environment and that populations evolutionary past? How different BMI values correspond to different levels of risk between ethnic groups Differences in cardiorespiratory fitness levels and capacity for fat oxidation potentially contribute to ethnic differences in the cardio-metabolic risk profile Do we need ethnicity-specific physical activity guidelines? Research questions that remain unanswered
Episode 56 The Stiell Sessions: Clinical Decision Rules and Risk Scales  

There are hundreds of clinical decision rules and risk scales published in the medical literature, some more widely adopted than others. Ian Stiell, the father of clinical decision rules, shares with us his views and experiences gained from co-creating some of the most influential CDRs and risk scales to date. He explains the criteria for developing a CDR, the steps to developing a valid CDR, how best to apply CDRs and risk scales to clinical practice, and the hot-off the-press new Ottawa COPD Risk Score and Ottawa Heart Failure Risk Score for helping you with disposition decisions. It turns out that in Canada, we discharge about two thirds of the acute decompensated heart failure patients that we see in the ED, while the US almost all patients with decompensated heart failure are admitted to hospital. Dr. Stiell's new risk scores may help physicians in Canada make safer disposition decisions while help physicians in the US avoid unnecessary admissions.

The post Episode 56 The Stiell Sessions: Clinical Decision Rules and Risk Scales appeared first on Emergency Medicine Cases.

#27 Embrace Risk In Your Property Journey, Don't Live Life Risk Free  

On this episode, Peter talks about risk in property. What is risk and what we know or think about risk. Why there are different definitions about risk, how risk depends on the circumstances, why it is influenced by our strategy, and why sometimes risks are not real. Why you need to be prepeared to take some risk in property, how to measure it, how to think about the possible outcome and probabilities, and manage it.

Flexual Healing - Week 16  

Do you trust Alshon Jeffery to be your flex for championship weekend? How about Rob Kelley, who needs a new nickname? Or Kenneth Farrow if Melvin Gordon can't go? We'll help you with some Flexual Healing, plus provide a Film Futures look at Devontae Booker and some help with Week 16 DraftKings. Guest: DFS Expert Craig Clark.

 

NOTES:

Sponsor - Download the free CreditWise app from Capital One!

Follow Craig Clark - @pcclark59

Follow our show - @HarrisFootball

Play against us in our weekly DraftKings contest - https://www.draftkings.com/gateway?s=545170975 …

Become a Person of the Book - www.WarOnSoundBook.com and email a proof-of-purchase selfie or screen cap to HeyHarris@HarrisFootball.com

 

Flexual Healing:

Alshon Jeffery (risk-tolerant: Carlos Hyde; risk-averse: Ryan Mathews)

Rob Kelley (risk-averse: Larry Fitzgerald; risk-tolerant: Robby Anderson)

Thomas Rawls (risk-tolerant: Michael Thomas; risk-averse: Dontrelle Inman)

Kenneth Farrow (risk-tolerant: Michael Crabtree; risk-averse: don't play him!)

 

Craig's DraftKings Lineup:

Drew Brees ($7,400)

Devonta Freeman ($7,100)

Bilal Powell ($6,000)

Brandin Cooks ($6,800)

DeAndre Hopkins ($5,200)

Will Fuller ($3,900)

Cameron Brate ($3,900)

Ty Montgomery ($5,900)

Rams ($3,500)

 

Chris's DraftKings Lineup:

Aaron Rodgers ($6,700)

LeSean McCoy ($9,000)

Todd Gurley ($6,500)

Jordy Nelson ($7,000)

Rishard Matthews ($4,900)

Will Fuller ($3,900)

Cameron Brate ($3,900)

Mark Ingram ($4,400)

Rams ($3,500)

Flexual Healing - Week 6  

When you get that feeling? You know it's time to start thinking about submitting your Week 6 lineup. And we can help! Today's show will help you focus on your flex, figure out what level of risk you want and need, and which players match those needs. We'll also update the latest injury news *and* give you some DraftKings strategy. Big fun! Guest: DFS Expert Craig Clark.

 

NOTES:

Sponsor - www.leesa.com/harris for $75 off your new mattress and 100 risk-free nights to try it out

Sponsor - www.DraftKings.com promo code HARRIS for a free contest with your new deposit.

Follow Craig Clark - @pcclark59

Follow our show - @HarrisFootball

Get Chris's new novel - www.WarOnSoundBook.com

Join our DraftKings Week 6 contest: https://www.draftkings.com/gateway?s=806872373 …

 

Flexual Healing Advice:

Jamaal Charles: risky = Emmanuel Sanders; risk-averse = Will Fuller

John Brown: risky = Frank Gore; risk-averse = T.J. Yeldon

Matt Jones: risky = Sterling Shepard; risk-averse = Chris Hogan

Sammie Coates: risky = Carlos Hyde; risk-averse = Isaiah Crowell

Jonathan Stewart: risky = T.Y. Hilton; risk-averse = Doug Baldwin

Cameron Meredith: risky = Jamaal Charles; risk-averse = don't play him!

 

Craig's DraftKings Lineup:

Brock Osweiler ($5,400)

LeSean McCoy ($6,900)

DeMarco Murray ($,7700)

Willie Snead ($6,400)

Will Fuller ($5,900)

Cameron Meredith ($4,100)

Coby Fleener ($3,500)

Christine Michael ($6,800)

Eagles ($3,100)

 

Chris's DraftKings Lineup:

Alex Smith ($5,700)

Le’Veon Bell ($7,900)

LeSean McCoy ($6,900)

Jarvis Landry ($6,800)

Jeremy Maclin ($6,300)

Davante Adams ($3,900)

Coby Fleener ($3,500)

Theo Riddick ($5,300)

Bills Defense ($3,700)

Datorprogram beräknar din risk att dö inom fem år  

Om du vill veta din risk att dö inom den närmaste framtiden finns det nu ett verktyg för det. Det är ett datorprogram som, baserat på några få frågor, kan beräkna din statistiska risk att dö inom fem år.

- Vi har en dator-algoritm som räknar ut hur du har svarat på alla dina frågor. Utifrån det får man sedan en absolut risk att dö inom fem år, säger Erik Ingelsson, professor i molekylär epidemiologi, och ansvarig för en stor studie som publiceras i veckans the Lancet. I studien, som ligger till grund för riskkalkylatorn, har forskarna gjort jämförelser och undersökt samband mellan mer än 650 olika socioekonomiska, biologiska och psykologiska faktorer i ett av världens största studiematerial, den brittiska biobanken. Datat består av uppgifter och levnadsöden från nära en halv miljon britter, som forskarna noga följt i fem års tid, och på så sätt har man kunnat få fram vilka av de 650 faktorerna som bäst förutspår risken att dö. - Det visade sig att det var saker som "hur uppskattar du din egen hälsa" eller "hur snabbt går du" som var starkast, den typen av frågor, som var starkast. Vilket var intressant och faktiskt lite förvånande, säger Erik Ingelsson. Den stora analysen visade överraskande nog att de frågor man själv kunde svara på faktiskt bättre kunde förutspå risken att dö, än till exempel blodtryck eller fettsammansättning. En stark faktor är vilken hastighet du normalt går. Men det handlar inte om att du riskerar att dö bara för att du går långsamt, berättar Erik Ingelsson, utan om de bakomliggande orsakerna till att du faktiskt går långsamt. - Man kan tänka sig att personer som går långsamt är sjuka, överviktiga eller röker. Det finns många olika saker som de faktiskt är, som i sin tur ökar risken för att de ska dö. Forskarna lät en dator-algoritm ta fram den kombination av riskfaktorer som på bästa sätt förutspår en persons risk att dö inom fem år. Resultatet blev riskkalkylatorn, som med 11 enkla frågor för kvinnor och 13 för män, ger dig en procentuell risk. Verktyget finns tillgängligt online och forskarna tror att det kommer vara till stor användning både för privatpersoner och olika aktörer inom samhället. Vetenskapsradions reporter Katarina Sundberg knappar in sina 11 svar i verktyget Ubble: sin ålder (40), sitt kön, hur många barn hon har fött, och om hon går fortare eller långsammare än genomsnittet. - Jag knappar in det sista i datorprogrammet och lite nervöst är det allt, när jag ber Ubble uppskatta min risk att dö och beräkna min så kallade ubble-ålder. - Ok, då ska vi se... Åh! Jag är bara 22 år! konstaterar Katarina Sundberg. Skulle du själv vilja testa att beräkna din risk att dö inom 5 år, hittar du en länk till Ubble här.
Episode 091: Eight Risk Management Survival Skills  
This week The PMO Podcast™ Featured Story presents, "Eight Risk Management Survival Skills," presented by Mark Perry (about Mark), host of The PMO Podcast™. If you are a project management professional, then you of course know all about Project Risk Management. But how do you take that knowledge and apply it without having to re-create the wheel time after time for each new project. Well, one way is develop a common technique that can be repeated from project to the next. And that is the aim of today’s feature. Provided are eight risk management survival skills, most in the form of a checklist of over 50 questions.

The PMO Podcast™ Points Memo suggests, “Sometimes, you've got to go out on a limb!" Some people are unwilling to risk the ridicule of the leaders in their industry, while others risk starting a whole new industry altogether. It has been said that nothing will ever be attempted if all possible objections must first be overcome. Most anything, truly worthwhile, involves some degree of risk. As Will Rogers once said, “You’ve got to go out on a limb sometimes, because that’s where the fruit is.”

The PMO Podcast™ Mailbag answers a listener question about managing project risk.

The PMO Podcast™ is sponsored by BOT International, the provider of Processes On Demand, a PMO Setup solution used by more than 1,000 companies.

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Big Wave Surfer Nic Lamb on Training For Risk, Making Choices, The Ocean  

Nic Lamb surfs very large waves. He’s a professional surfer on the Big Wave Tour, and was ranked number 4 in the world last year. A native to the Santa Cruz area in California, Nic is no stranger to a wave called Mavericks. It’s legendary for how heavy the conditions are. At 14 years old, Nic Lamb became one of the youngest surfers to ever charge Mavericks and was one of the youngest competitors in the event in 2014. He won the Mavericks contest in 2016 — you need to take a look at this wave (see below). I wanted to interview Nic to better understand the concept of thinking clearly in rugged environments. We all have real or perceived threats — we can learn from those who excel, on the world stage, in conditions that are very dangerous. More importantly I hope people take away a new way of thinking about risk — maybe a new– way to re-design risk-taking; it’s not about physical risk (which could be a mistake for those who didn’t tune in because they’re not sure how to learn from surfing) — the real risk is to have the clarity and conviction to stand for something that you love, that you believe in — and this conversation get’s into ways to train your mind, body and craft to excel when risk is required – (recovery, imagery, mindfulness) — and — this conversation is a solid a reminder to be in nature, and to progressively prepare and test yourself as often as you can. Nic is intense, thoughtful, and is charging toward his passions and goals. It’s a fun time to know Nic and watch him push his craft to limits, and the industry. In This Episode: • What’s it’s like to surf Mavericks • Learning how to act from those who came before him • Why he loves and fears the ocean • What happens when he’s trapped under a wave • What drives him to crave victory • Managing relationships with limited time • Implementing a daily mindfulness practice • The importance he places on strength, conditioning, and recovery • Why preparation is key to risk taking • Finding something to obsess over as a starting point for mastery

Ruth Patterson, Ph.D. on Time-Restricted Eating in Humans & Breast Cancer Prevention  

Today's episode features Dr. Ruth Patterson, a professor in the UC San Diego Department of Family Medicine and Public Health as well as Associate Director of Population Sciences and leader of the Cancer Prevention program at Moores Cancer Center at UC San Diego Health. If you enjoyed my last episode with Dr. Satchin Panda, I have good news! This will also be a great episode for you, since we talk about some similar ideas, but focus more on the human side of things, especially when it comes to time-restricted eating, since Dr. Patterson does primarily clinical research.

In this 45-minute podcast, we talk about...

The importance of time-restricted eating as a practical public health intervention, mostly for it's ease of implementation, that may have a widespread impact on disease risk. Why you should probably make sure your time-restricted eating window occurs earlier in the day, rather than later. How the first 5% drop in weight loss can have disproportionately large effects on the metabolic factors associated with breast cancer risk when compared with subsequent weight loss. The association of longer fasting durations beginning earlier in the evening and improved sleep in humans, as well as spontaneous physical activity in their day-to-day lives. The relationship between metabolism and breast cancer risk. The effect of lifestyle factors, such as obesity, physical activity, what and even when you eat, whether or not you smoke tobacco... and how even modest changes, such as consuming food earlier in the day and only during an 11-hour window, can decrease breast cancer risk and recurrence by as much as 36%. The importance of starting your fast earlier in the evening, and how an earlier eating window has been shown to correlate to reductions in inflammatory markers. The association of higher circulating insulin levels with breast cancer risk, and how insulin itself has an important relationship with estrogen by affecting the levels of sex-hormone binding globulin. The dangers of having a cellular environment that is inflamed, as the case is with the obese, and simultaneously having elevated cellular growth signals, which is also characteristic of the hormonal milieu of the obese. The surprisingly small role heredity plays in determining overall risk of breast cancer when compared to lifestyle factors. How healthful lifestyle habits, like choosing to eat during the right window, ultimately helps us trend our risk for many of the diseases of old age in the correct direction instead of influencing only one or another.

If the concept of time-restricted eating especially piques your interest, make sure to...

Check out the podcast released just prior to this one: Dr. Satchin Panda on Time-Restricted Feeding and Its Effects on Obesity, Muscle Mass & Heart Health. Make sure your data points go to good use! Visit myCircadianClock.org to learn how you can, by committing to a minimum of a 14 week "intervention" and submitting pictures of your food from your iPhone or Android phone, move human research on time-restricted eating forward.

Huge special thanks to Dr. Ruth Patterson for coming on. Enjoy the podcast!

Trauma is Risky Business - Deborah Stein  
Trauma is Risky Business 

Deborah Stein SMACC Chicago talk Trauma is Risky Business - delves into the risk patients and physicians undergo when treating or being treated for Trauma. 

Stein’s speaks of the Risk Benefit Determination that physicians make daily and how this is used to best answer on going questions such as; can a patient have?, how do we care for this patient? and how do we best make all the these decisions?. 

Stein’s suggests a thorough Risk Benefit Determination will include: 
# Analysis of best available data 
# Use of best available judgement 
# Gathering of different opinions 
# An understanding that you won’t always make the right decision 
# To document the 'crap' out of it! 
# And,  to remember you’ll never know what you prevented from not occurring. 

Stein’s also focuses on the risk to patients due to missed injuries, stating that 1.3-39% of injuries in trauma are missed (a majority of which present as orthopaedic cases). And, touching on the processes designed to prevent missed injuries such as; Territory Trauma Survey,  Roles of Clinical Decision Rules,  to scan the living ‘crap’ out of them - whole body CT scans (can decrease mortality but comes attached with its own risks). 

Stein’s then delves into the risks trauma providers (physicians) face on a daily bases. Stating that in the USA trauma providers are one of the highest categories of physicians to be sued, have higher indemnity payment awarded against them and achieve a higher risk score in studies for being sued. While, lawsuits are more likely to increase the chance of physician burnout, career burnout, depression and are emotionally and physically exhausting. Steins sights recent studies that suggest the more open, honest and forthright a physician is with their error with their peers and their hospital, the likelihood of being sued reduces. 

Stein’s also notes that needle stick injuries in most departments have decreased in recent years due to universal precautions, yet have increased in trauma care due to the nature of the ER environment and proper precautions not being taken. Violence is of risk to attending ER nurses, physicians and paramedics, sighting an Australian study that 79% of triage nurses have experienced physical violence from patients. And, the emotional harm the trauma environment can have on trauma providers.

Steins suggests that trauma providers must be aware and learn how to manage risk better to ensure patient and provider safety.

SMACC 0

Kayt Sukel: Sex, Risk, and the Brain  

As a cultural scientist, passionate traveler and science journalist, Kayt Sukel has no problem tackling interesting (and often risky) subjects spanning love, sex, risk taking, neuroscience, travel and politics. In this episode: -Her fascination with the brain -Applying to college at any early age -Conditioned learning vs. guided discovery -Little movements forward to take you the distance -Working through curiosity -Importance of having freedom to explore as a child -What is it about sex that drives us -Sex vs. love -Ideas on monogamy -Thoughts on risk taking -Common threads risk takers share -Reaching the edge of danger -Neurology of the brain and its relation to risk -Turning off the overthinking part of your brain -Why curiosity guides her life -How people can become better at risk taking -Which mental skills are most important -How the mind reacts to threat -How you can make your kids better risk takers

TEI 064: Help your product team go fast using Lean Startup practices – with Tristan Kromer - The Everyday Innovator – Resources for Product Managers and Innovators  

Product managers and innovators are using Lean Startup practices to create products customers love. But, many product managers are still learning about the right ways to apply Lean Startup to their work. To find some answers, I interviewed Tristan Kromer. His bio shares that he "helps product teams go fast." He does this by coaching teams in Lean Startup principles, breaking down big problems into small steps and running experiments to improve product and business models. He's done this for large enterprises as well as startups and companies in between.

With his remaining hours, Tristan volunteers his time with Lean Startup Circle and blogs at GrasshopperHerder.com.

In this discussion, you will learn about:

prioritizing product features,
tools to validate product concepts, and
what customers value.

 
Practices and Ideas for Product Managers and Innovators
Summary of questions discussed:

A few milestones in your past include a philosophy undergrad, being a bandleader and music producer, Marketing VP, and a startup co-founder. What is the thread through your experiences that led to Lean coaching? Except for philosophy, they all have creativity in common. The music industry is shockingly similar to the tech industry. It’s basically a bunch of people running around claiming to be rock stars of one form or another and trying to become famous while desperately looking for money . You have the same types of personalities and the same product development problems. They both want to bridge the gap between your delusions about what the world wants, your reality distortion field, your inward facing reality distortion field, and what people actually want and desire. So it's a question of bridging that gap.

Why is there so much interest in Lean principles from startups and organizations of all sizes? One reason is because it’s the latest buzzword and bestselling book by the same name. Eric Ries is absolutely brilliant and does amazing things that appear magical but are not.  We have successful disruptive companies, such as Dropbox, who have used it, adding to the interest.

If we have a concept for a product but have done nothing else yet, what is the first thing we should do? I want to reframe the question. The job of a startup is to find a repeatable business model. A startup is any sort of organization that exists in a highly uncertain and risky environment or situation. Because of that, a startup has to essentially identify risks and eliminate them as quickly as possible. Knowing if customers will buy the product or not is a key risk area that is often considered.  Several tools can be used to determine if customers will commit to buying the product (a few are discussed by name). But that is only one area of risk. Once that is addressed, there may be technical risk, distribution risk, product use risk, etc. Clearly addressing risk leads to a repeatable business model.

What is an example of addressing risk? Let’s talk about evaluative experiments. If you have a clear hypothesis about who your customer is and what they want, you can run an experiment that will give you a relatively clear answer. For example, say my target segment is skateboarders who are 20 years old and had a broken arm within the past three weeks. My product concept is a magical cast that heals their broken arm in half the time of traditional casts. My hypothesis is that if I show them a specific landing page, they will purchase the product – a simple if-this-then-that hypothesis. I set a fail condition for the hypothesis to be 20% – if less than 20% commit to purchasing, the hypothesis fails.  I show that landing page to one hundred skateboarders. If less than 20% sign up, clearly this product is a bad idea or it's unbelievable.

What do we do when we don’t have any hypothesis yet – we are still learning about what a customer problem is?

Secret viewers.  

In our modern societies, its quite normal to coexist quite happily with other species: dogs, cats, birds, hamsters, and many other kinds of pets. I have seen people take their animals into shops, take them into restaurants, and even travel with them on planes. I think it is becoming more common. Being a pet owner myself, I understand the strong attachment that some people have to their animals. However, there are some places where you don't expect to find animals of any kind. I picked up my daughter from the cinema the other day, and found that her friend's teenage sister who had accompanied them had secretly taken her pets as well. She reached in her pocket and brought out two very colorful geckos. I was shocked. First of all I was surprised that they hadn't escaped, as I know that they can move very quickly. If they had, it would have been a disaster, because the cinema is huge and it would have been impossible to find them. Just imagine them running around on the floor of the dark viewing room, around people's feet, and slipping into someone's handbag or up a trouser leg. Ugh! The thought makes me shudder(1)! Secondly, I couldn't stop thinking about salmonella bacteria. I hope Maria, the owner, wasn't eating popcorn while watching the movie and stroking her pets at the same time! Well, she seemed perfectly healthy. She then told me that the reason she had brought them to the theater was that she didn't want to keep them at home. She had a four year old cousin staying at home, and he was a bit rough. She didn't want to risk (2)them getting hurt. So, she sneaked(3) them into her pocket without anyone knowing. Maria loves reptiles and wants to be a responsible pet owner. As I drove home I realized that we were lucky that she didn't own any snakes! 1. 'Shudder' is the verb which means 'to shake' with horror or disgust.  a. Elizabeth looked at the large cut on the man's face and shuddered. She knew that she could never be a nurse. b. The new boy shuddered to think of sitting next to the school bully on the bus. 2. 'To risk' plus a verb in the present continuous, is a shorter version of saying 'to run a/the risk of + verb in continuous. a. I left early because I didn't want to risk being late / run the risk of being late. b. The prisoners escaped quietly so they wouldn't risk waking the guards / run the risk of waking the guards. 3. 'To sneak' has a very different ending in the past tense in the U.S compared to Britain: 'snuck'. a. The children sneaked into the cinema without paying (British).     The children snuck into the cinema without paying (U.S.) b. The cat sneaked slowly up the tree while the bird was away from its nest (British).     The cat snuck slowly up the tree while the bird was away from its nest (U.S.) Click here to download The Golden Whisper for free! Click the link for the Android app

Episode 15 Part 1: Acute Coronary Syndromes Risk Stratification  

In Part 1 of this Episode on Acute Coronary Syndromes Risk Stratification Dr. Eric Letovksy, Dr. Mark Mensour and Dr. Neil Fam discuss common pearls and pitfalls in assessing the patient who presents to the ED with chest pain. They review atypical presentations to look out for, what the literature says about the value of traditional and non-traditional cardiac risk factors, the diagnostic utility of recent cardiac testing, and which patients in the ED should have a cardiac work-up. Finally, in the ED work up of Acute Coronary Syndromes Risk Stratification, they highlight some valuable key points in ECG interpretation and how best to use and interpret cardiac biomarkers like troponin.

Drs. Letovksy, Mensour & Fam address questions like: How useful are the traditional cardiac risk factors in predicting ACS in the ED? How does a negative recent treadmill stress test, nuclear stress test or angiogram effect the pre-test probability of ACS in the ED? What does recent evidence tell us about the assumption that patients presenting with chest pain and a presumed new LBBB will rule in for MI and require re-perfusion therapy? How can we diagnose MI in the patient with a ventricular pacemaker? What is the difference between Troponin I and Troponin T from a practical clinical perspective? Is one Troponin ever good enough to rule out MI in the patient with a normal ECG? Should we be using a 2hr delta troponin protocol? How will the new ultra-sensitive Troponins change our practice? and many more.....

The post Episode 15 Part 1: Acute Coronary Syndromes Risk Stratification appeared first on Emergency Medicine Cases.

David Ropeik: Airplane Disasters and the Psychology of Risk  

How do we rationally assess risk? Following a terrible series of horrifying air travel disasters, reasonable people begin to question what we consider to be "safe." But should we?    To answer this question, our host Josh Zepps is joined by David Ropeik, an international consultant and expert on the subject of risk perception and communication, and author of Risk: A Practical Guide for Deciding Whats Really Safe and Whats Really Dangerous in the World Around You and How Risky Is It, Really?: Why Our Fears Don't Always Match the Facts.    Ropeik discusses how human beings perceive danger versus mathematical probabilities, how fear and optimism affect our perception, and how it might be a good idea to be "gentle" with the word "rational" when it comes to the subject risk. 

TPP044: Risk and reward in property investment  

This week we talked about risk and reward. You’re obviously taking on some level of risk by investing in property rather than keeping your money under a mattress, but how do you calculate the risk/reward balance that suits you and find an investment approach that matches? We talked about the notion of risk and reward […] The post TPP044: Risk and reward in property investment appeared first on The Property Hub.

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