Folgen
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One of the first casualties of the AI race may be lawyers, and thatâs where we go this week with Damien Riehl who is at the front line of disrupting the legal profession. Law without lawyers? Really? Are we moving from if to when this tipping point becomes reality.
Damien's company: https://vlex.com/vincent-aiDamien's TED Talk: https://www.ted.com/talks/damien_riehl_why_all_melodies_should_be_free_for_musicians_to_useAll The Music: https://allthemusic.info/All the Patents: http://allthepatents.info/For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
The AI Revolution in Law: Disrupting and Democratizing Legal Services
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the disruptive potential of AI in the legal profession with guest Damien Rio from vLex. The discussion explores the transformative impact of AI on access to legal services, the operational overhaul of legal tasks through large language models, and the future implications for lawyers, courts, and clients. Damien shares insights on his groundbreaking work in automating legal processes, addressing the challenges of legal backlog, and the potential for AI to democratize access to law worldwide. The episode also touches on the impact of AI on litigation strategies, private versus public legal data, and the future landscape of legal arbitration.
00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome
00:44 Part One
00:52 Damien's Background and TED Talk
01:30 Part Two
01:30 Introduction to V Lex
02:30 The Role of AI in Legal Research
03:41 Disrupting the Legal Profession
07:54 Democratizing Access to Law
09:13 Challenges and Opportunities in Legal Tech
17:59 AI's Impact on Legal Disputes
23:58 The Role of Non-Lawyers in Legal Services
25:28 Democratizing Access to Law
25:58 Part Two
26:08 Economic Impacts of Legal Tech
26:59 Jevons Paradox and Legal Work
28:35 AI in the Judicial System
34:55 Global Implications of Legal Tech
38:18 AI's Limitations and Future in Law
46:45 Copyright and Patent Innovations
48:28 Conclusion and Future Prospects
49:12 Credits
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Today weâve got a page turnerâŠnot that Page, our co-presenterâŠbut a book that brings the AI battle to life: Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT and the Race That Will Change the World, Written by our guest, Parmy Olson. Buckle up as it's going to be a wild ride.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
AI Supremacy and Ethical Dilemmas: A Conversation with Parmy Olson
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page sit down with Bloomberg columnist and AI expert, Parmy Olson, to discuss her new book, 'Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT, and the Race that Will Change the World.' The conversation covers the ethical challenges and regulatory gaps in the AI industry, the role of big tech corporations in AI development, and the societal impact of AI on various sectors including healthcare, education, and law. Olson also shares insights on the bias and unintended consequences of AI technology, the psychology of tech innovators, and the future prospects for the technology.
00:00 Introduction
00:51 Meet the Guest: Parme Olson
01:08 Parmy Olson's Journey in Tech Journalism
02:25 The Fascination with Silicon Valley
03:26 The Metaverse Debate
04:16 Investigative Journalism in Tech
08:05 The AI Hype: Reality or Exaggeration?
10:57 The Race for AI Supremacy
14:29 Unintended Consequences of AI
20:18 The Ethics of AI Development
22:55 Closing Thoughts on AI and Tech
24:49 Part Two
25:23 The Competitive Landscape of AI
26:07 The Shift from Openness to Secrecy
27:42 Meta's Approach to Open Source AI
28:55 The Role of Open Source in Tech Development
30:57 The Allure of High Salaries in AI
31:09 Capitalism and AI: A Cautionary Tale
31:55 The Distinction Between Business and Markets
33:49 AI's Potential in Public Services
36:49 The Future of Law with AI
41:24 The Psychology of Tech Companies
48:06 The Bubble and Reality of AI
49:38 The Future of AI and Human Roles
51:47 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
52:17 Credits
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Fehlende Folgen?
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Weâre back from summer break and we want to revisit some past pods as they get dragged into the current of current events, making our predictions as good - or even better - than the AI led herd. Today weâve got a slew of stories to unpack, from AI Fakes and our podcast with the now-under-threat CEO of Boomy, the unwinding of the greatest money making machine you never heard of, and in Part Two revisiting our Ticketmaster / Live Nation show and the current fiasco of dynamic pricing for Oasis tickets.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of 'Bubble Trouble,' hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into two major topics affecting today's financial and entertainment markets. They discuss the recent fraudulent activities surrounding AI-generated music streams, detailing the $10 million scam involving fake fans and manipulated royalties. Moving on, they shed light on the Oasis ticketing debacle, where surge pricing and market manipulation led to skyrocketing ticket prices and public outcry. Throughout the episode, they revisit past discussions, particularly focusing on market turbulence and the intricacies of carry trades. The hosts promise more exciting content and insights into market dynamics as they kick off their autumn season.
00:00 Introduction and Welcome Back
01:08 Part One
01:33 Reflecting on Past Episodes
02:11 Summer Break and Market Turbulence
03:42 Understanding Carry Trades
09:46 Nvidia's Market Impact
13:07 AI Music Fraud Scandal
23:41 Part Two
23:41 Oasis Ticket Fiasco
24:59 Ticket Demand and Dynamic Pricing
26:30 Surge Pricing vs. Dynamic Pricing
30:58 The Role of Ticketmaster and Market Manipulation
36:03 Potential Solutions and Future Outlook
43:07 Concluding Thoughts and Wrap-Up
43:48 Credits
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This week weâre going to keep on pricking bubbles with a fellow cynic of the sycophants and stenographers. Here to help us is David Trainer of New Constructs, whose company makes ârobo-adjustmentsâ to the reported accounts of 1000s of listed companies and tries to unearth the real financials behind the content marketing from company investor relations teams.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, guest David Trainor, the founder of New Constructs, delves into his background in economics and statistics, his time at Credit Suisse, and his perspective on market bubbles and financial accountability. The discussion ranges from the detrimental effects of rapid, superficial analysis and reporting pervasive in today's investment industry, to the importance of rigorous fundamental analysis in discerning true business value. The conversation also touches on companies' strategic overstatement of profits, the ill-effects of unchecked capital allocation, and the role of artificial intelligence in future financial analytics. As the founder of New Constructs, David highlights how his company is helping investors uncover the real financial situation behind companies' reported accounts.
00:00 Introduction
00:57 Part One
01:02 Guest Introduction: David Trainor
01:26 Understanding New Constructs
02:22 The Cynicism in Wall Street
03:02 David's Backstory and the Tech Bubble
04:11 The Role of Accounting in Business
05:37 The Reality of Wall Street
07:42 The Boy Who Cried Wolf: A Market Perspective
08:27 The Intentionality of Market Bubbles
15:44 The Impact of Algorithmic Trading
18:28 The Difference Between Investing and Speculating
23:49 The Challenge of Limited Company Disclosure
26:12 Part Two
27:34 Discussing the Spectrum of Corporate Ethics
27:42 Highlighting Notorious Corporate Scandals
28:05 Elon Musk: Genius or Snake Oil Salesman?
28:46 The Reality of Earnings Distortion
29:09 The Unsettling Truth About CFOs and Wall Street Analysts
29:40 The Role of Investor Relations Firms
30:37 The Problem with Superficial Analysis
33:43 The Art of Investing: A Touchy Feely Approach
35:55 The Role of AI in the Future of Financial Analysis
47:18 The Dangers of Overstating Profits and Zombie Stocks
50:57 Closing Thoughts and Future Predictions
50:59 Credits
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So let's look forward and prepare you for the next big sexy blockbuster tech IPO, youâve read all about it - thatâs right. Reddit is going to ring the bell.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Reddit's IPO Adventure: A Deep Dive into Valuations, Trends, and Future Prospects
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dissect Reddit's impending IPO, examining its valuation, user base, and revenue streams. The podcast begins with a discussion on the evolution of Reddit and its business model, focusing on the challenges it faces as a business primarily driven by advertising revenue in a competitive digital advertising landscape. Kramer and Page delve into the nuances of Reddit's user engagement and its niche position in the internet culture, juxtaposing it against giants like Meta and Google. They critically analyze the hype surrounding tech IPOs, emphasizing Reddit's $800 million revenue and its struggle to become profitable amidst a sprawling digital advertising world. The episode also covers the broader implications of down rounds and the valuation bubbles that tech companies often face. Through expert insights and a candid conversation, the episode offers a comprehensive view on Reddit's IPO, the tech industry's valuation practices, and what the future holds for user-generated content platforms.
00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: DeepFakes and Bubbles
01:02 Part One
01:06 The Fascinating Shift from Hong Kong to Singapore
02:52 Reddit's Upcoming IPO: A Deep Dive
03:25 Exploring Reddit's Niche and Financials
06:04 The Cultural Impact and Controversies of Reddit
08:58 Reddit IPO Strategies and User Dynamics
10:43 Inside Reddit: Culture, Compliance, and Future Prospects
16:00 Part Two
16:00 South by Southwest Festival Insights
20:04 Back to Reddit: IPO Details and Expectations
21:22 Technical Difficulties and Starting Off
21:24 Exploring Down Rounds: A Deep Dive
23:48 The Reality of Valuations and Market Corrections
24:42 Tech Companies' Valuations Post-Pandemic
25:41 Reddit's Revenue Diversification and Data Deals
27:15 The Creator Economy: Expectations vs. Reality
29:48 Reddit's IPO: A Case Study in Market Dynamics
34:49 Smoke Signals for Future IPOs
38:21 Reflecting on Reddit and the IPO Landscape
40:20 Credits
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This week we talk with Linda Yueh, author of the book The Great Crashes. Since America's Wall Street Crash of 1929, the global economy has weathered the most tumultuous century in financial history. From the currency crises of the 1980s, to Japan's housing meltdown, the dot com boom and bust, the global financial crash and the COVID pandemic, crash after crash has sent shockwaves through our world. The Great Crashes tells the stories of ten of these historic financial events. They serve as a series of cautionary tales, each with their own lessons to be learnt. With clear-eyed analysis, renowned economist Professor Linda Yueh uses these meltdowns to extract a critical three-step framework to help recognise the early signs of a crash, mitigate the effects and even prevent them in the future. There is very little that is certain in economics, except for this: there will be another financial crisis. [Repeat from March 2024]
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Understanding Economic Bubbles and Crises: Insights from Linda Yu
This episode of Bubble Trouble features Richard Kramer and Will Page in conversation with Linda Yu, the author of 'The Great Crashes', discussing lessons from historical economic downturns and ways to prevent future crises. Yu shares her unique perspectives drawn from her experiences in journalism, academia, and having been a witness to several economic crashes. The conversation covers the dynamics of bubbles, the role of banks and debt in triggering financial crises, regulatory challenges, the impact of policy decisions on economic inequality, and the specific case of China's impending financial instability. Throughout, the importance of understanding human nature's role in financial markets and the necessity for credible crisis management strategies are underscored.
00:02 Introduction
00:47 Part One
00:47 Introducing Linda Yu: From BBC to Authorship
01:34 Linda Yu's Journey: Academia, Books, and Economic Crashes
02:06 The Making of 'The Great Crashes': A Deep Dive into Economic Meltdowns
06:04 Understanding Crises: The Three Phases of Economic Downturns
08:47 The Role of Banks in Economic Crises: A Critical Examination
15:12 Regulatory Challenges and the Shadow Banking System
22:06 Educational Insights: The Importance of Economic History
26:52 The Eurocrisis and Bail-Ins: A New Approach to Banking Failures
29:58 Part Two
30:10 Preview of Part Two: Further Explorations into Economic Crises
31:16 Exploring Economic Festivals and the Humor in Economics
32:06 The Serious Side of Economic Crime in China
32:14 Navigating the Iceberg: China's Economic Challenges
33:07 The Next Great Crush: Predicting China's Economic Future
33:39 The Intricacies of China's Banking System and Property Bubble
34:56 China's Influence on Global Markets and Emerging Economies
35:30 China's Unique Approach to Big Tech Regulation
39:25 The Consequences of Financial Penalties on Banks
41:03 Preventing the Next Great Crash: Policy Levers and Their Effectiveness
46:13 The Unintended Consequences of Economic Policies
55:10 Crisis Management and the Importance of Credibility
59:19 Final Thoughts and the Future of Economic Crises
01:00:30 Credits
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Today, we welcome back Feargal Sharkey, who visited Bubble Trouble last summer and dropped a (water) bomb on our privatized utilities. Heâs fought the noble fight to expose Thames Water as profiteering polluters. Nine months later we have a massive credit bubble bursting, dumping toxic sewage in both debt laden shell companies and the real shit floating in our rivers and seas, while private equity owners took out ÂŁ78bn of dividends since privatization kicked in. A warning: this conversation should make everyone angry, whether you draw a drink, go for a wild swim, or just watch your rising water bill - asking how this utility privatization bubble caused so much trouble. [Repeat from April 2024}
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
This episode of Bubble Trouble features hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page, with return guest Fergal Sharkey, discussing the failing state of privatized water companies in England. Highlighted are the issues of excessive dividends extracted by private equity owners, the massive debt incurred by water companies, regulatory failures, and the environmental costs of pollution. Sharkie shares his firsthand experiences with water pollution and regulatory battles. The episode delves into the implications of privatization on public resources, the potential for nationalization, and the urgent need for systemic reform in water management amidst mounting public outrage and the looming crisis of water scarcity in London. The conversation encapsulates the complexities of privatization, the financial engineering driving the water industry's woes, and the palpable need for political and regulatory intervention.
00:00 Introduction
00:55 Introducing Repeat Guest Fergal Sharkey: A Deep Dive into Water Industry Woes
00:59 Part One
01:28 Fergal Sharkey's Journey: From Fly Fishing to Fighting Water Privatization
03:27 The Alarming State of England's Privatized Water Industry
06:47 Investigative Journalism and the Mainstream Media's Role
07:44 Exploring the Nationalization Debate and Its Complexities
11:06 Regulatory Failures and the Environmental Catastrophe
14:27 The Financial Quagmire: Debt, Dividends, and the Dire State of Infrastructure
22:00 Addressing the Bondholders: A Call for Accountability
27:12 Part Two
27:12 Looking Ahead: Solutions and the Future of Water Privatization
31:49 The Inefficiency of Global Success
32:11 System-Level Solutions for Water Management
33:14 The Looming Water Crisis in London
34:01 Government's Role in Managing the Water Industry
34:42 The Financial Challenge of Securing London's Water Supply
35:27 Reforming the Water Industry: A Shift in Earnings and Management
35:59 Empathy for the Regulator and the Need for Investment
41:10 Nationalizing the Water Companies: A Strategic Move
47:04 Political Pressure and Regulatory Challenges
49:42 Privatization's Failures and Future Directions
55:20 Concluding Thoughts and the Public's Role
57:34 Credits
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For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
In this milestone 100th episode of Bubble Trouble podcast, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page converse with former Enron CFO, Andy Fastow, discussing the downfall of Enron, financial regulation, the financial crisis, and the manipulation of financial statements. Fastow delves into the fine line between legal and illegal practices in finance, highlighting how business leaders can inject more risk than they realize when operating within the 'gray areas' of business and finance. He also shares his insights into public pension liabilities, the potential tipping point for public finances, and how the perception of different companies can drastically change based on financial reporting and assumptions. [Repeat from December 2023]
0:00 BT 101 In Conversation with Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow Part Two
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
00:42 Part One
19:03 Exploring the Role of Technology in Financial Crises
22:20 Understanding the Impact of Government Accounting
29:09 Enron's Advisory Board and Structured Finance Deals
30:11 Reflections on Enron's Financial Practices
30:41 Government's Financial Engineering
30:58 Imputed Rent and Government Statistics
32:25 Part Two
32:25 Inflation and its Impact
32:25 Inequality and Low Interest Rates
32:40 The Role of Analysts and Ethics in Finance
33:34 The University of Colorado Case Study
49:29 Closing Thoughts on Ethics and Reciprocity in Finance
52:59 Credits
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For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
In this 100th episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the inner workings of business and financial markets, shedding light on their truths via conversations with their guest, former CFO of Enron, Andy Fastow. They discuss the key factors that led to the downfall of Enron, including the exploitation of accounting 'loopholes' and the destructive impact of mark-to-market accounting and how it leads companies into a risk-laden gray area of business. They also cover the issues surrounding operating leases, addressing the ethical debate of 'genius' vs 'evil'. Furthermore, they delve into insightful examples of business mishaps and financial irregularities including the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank. Fastow expresses his regret and responsibility for Enron's downfall, highlighting the difference between technically following the accounting rules and creating misleading financial impressions of a company. [Repeat from November 2023]
0:00 BT 100 In Conversation with Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow Part One
00:02 Introduction
00:02 Introduction and Overview of Bubble Trouble
00:15 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Topics
00:41 Unpacking the Enron Scandal
01:23 Part One
01:25 Interview with Andy Fastow, Former CFO of Enron
08:33 Understanding the Role of Auditors and Attorneys
10:59 Exploring the Concept of Loopholes
13:46 The Reality of Operating in the Gray Area
25:46 The Distinction Between Different Types of Fraud
27:19 The Conflict of Interest in Financial Analysis
28:53 Part Two
28:53 Continuation of Conversation with Andy Fastow
30:43 Enron's Acquisition and Financing Strategy
31:14 The Use of Operating Leases in Enron
32:46 The Legal Hurdles and Creative Solutions
35:56 The Impact of Financial Innovation
38:11 The Dangers of Mark to Market Accounting
41:53 The Role of Incentives in Financial Reporting
46:56 The Case of Silicon Valley Bank
53:42 The Role of Analysts and Banks in Financial Misrepresentation
54:54 Closing Remarks and Preview of Part Two
55:31 Credits
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This week, we freeform on two topics: summer music festivals and the stock markets. Will has identified a very interesting bubble this summer, which is the rapid cancellation of music festivals. Perhaps because supply got ahead of demand or perhaps because of extraneous factors, we wanna look into why so few people want to be standing out in their field or outstanding in their field. We're also gonna talk a little bit about the way in which random comments from politicians are roiling the stock markets.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, economist Will Page and independent analyst Richard Kramer discuss the rapid cancellation of music festivals amidst the backdrop of a post-pandemic economic squeeze and over-supply of events. They detail the impact on the live music ecosystem, examining how financial constraints and shifting consumer choices are reshaping the market. Additionally, they delve into how random political comments are affecting the stock markets, with a specific focus on a recent market wobble triggered by remarks from Donald Trump and the narrowing breadth of tech stock support. The episode links the volatility in both the live music industry and financial markets, providing a comprehensive analysis of the current economic landscape.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
00:58 Part One
00:58 The Decline of Music Festivals
02:09 Supply and Demand in Live Music
04:14 Economic Factors Affecting Festivals
07:29 The Impact on the Music Ecosystem
08:38 Dynamic Pricing and Ticketing Issues
15:44 The Future of Live Music and Festivals
20:33 Part Two
21:10 Market Turmoil: What's Happening?
22:39 The Fragility of the Market
23:37 Political Impact on Markets
24:12 Investor Reactions and Strategies
29:56 Global Market Contagion
33:23 The Tech Sector's Wild Ride
34:40 Political Volatility and Market Uncertainty
41:44 Credits
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Today weâve got a guest who's been doing our job for decades. Andrew Orlowski is a writer who has followed the technology industry for two decades, so heâs see the hype cycle peak and trough many times.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by veteran technology journalist Andrew Orlowski. They delve into the recurring market bubbles and dissect the relentless hype surrounding AI and machine learning. Orlowski discusses his track record in identifying technology bubbles and shares his skepticism about the transformative claims made about AI, comparing it to historical overhyped innovations like the metaverse and cryptocurrency. The discussion also touches on the implications of AI on productivity, labor markets, and the economy at large, highlighting the disconnect between policy elitesâ expectations and real-world applications. Throughout, the panel emphasizes the broader societal impacts and the role of critical scrutiny in understanding technological advancements.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
00:44 Part One
00:49 Meet Andrew Orlowski
01:43 The Origins of Bubble Trouble
02:06 Spotting Bubbles: Andrew's Track Record
02:39 Google's Market Manipulation
07:00 The AI Hype Cycle
12:08 AI's Economic Impact and Skepticism
19:10 The Future of AI and Technology
26:13 Debunking the Efficiency Myth in Tech Companies
26:39 The Role of AI in Financial Markets
28:10 AI Skepticism and the Hype Cycle
28:20 Part Two
29:02 The Future of Chatbots and Machine Learning
30:06 Public Skepticism vs. Elite Optimism
35:54 The Nature of Work and Productivity
42:13 The Middle Class Advantage in the Modern Workplace
45:40 The AI Bubble and Its Implications
49:01 Smoke Signals: Red Flags in the AI Industry
51:19 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
51:51 Credits
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[Repeat from November, 2023.]
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page welcome Liam Maxwell, former Chief Technology Officer for the British government and current AWS Senior Advisor, to delve into the transformative potential of the cloud. Together, they break down how cloud-based technologies are revolutionizing different sectors, from governments to private enterprises. Exploring clear cases such as the Ukrainian war situation or the everyday banking experience in Singapore, they highlight the impressive efficiency, flexibility, and speed offered by the cloud. The discussion also touches on the major productivity gains the cloud provides, the importance of building services centered on user needs, and how the digital economy is captured by government indices.
00:00 Introduction
01:14 Part One
01:32 Interview with Liam Maxwell
01:54 Liam's Journey in Tech and Government
02:25 The Impact of Cloud on Government Services
06:40 The Transition from Traditional IT to Cloud
15:25 The Role of AI in Cloud Adoption
19:24 The Ukraine War and the Role of Cloud
20:35 The Process of Moving Ukraine's Data to the Cloud
27:56 Reflections on the Impact of Cloud Technology
29:33 The Power of Decision Making in Amazon
30:26 Reflections on the UK Government's Test and Trace App
30:58 Part Two
31:27 The Impact of Cloud Technology on Productivity
32:01 The Economic Value of Cloud Technology
33:33 The Paradox of Technological Efficiency and Economic Growth
35:38 The Invisible Contributions of Transformative Technology
37:04 The Role of Cloud Technology in Government Services
39:00 The Challenges of Measuring the Impact of Tech Jobs
39:19 The Potential of Cloud Technology in Enhancing Public Services
51:57 The Impact of Tech Neologisms on Service Delivery
55:23 Closing Remarks and Reflections
56:25 Credits
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This week, part two of our continued conversation with Benedict Evans, an analyst with over 175,000 avid readers for his tech blog.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the intricacies of technology bubbles with special guest Benedict Evans. The discussion revolves around AI advancements, particularly focusing on Apple's recent integrations of AI models, the differentiation between small and large models, and the implications for email summarization and other features. They explore the economic and strategic decisions behind Apple's use of AI, the potential for various large language models (LLMs) to disrupt industries like legal tech, and the broader market dynamics and antitrust considerations. The conversation also touches on the challenges and opportunities presented by these technological advancements, emphasizing the importance of careful analysis and skepticism in the face of rapid innovation.
00:03 Introduction
00:29 Part One
00:29 AI and Apple's New Developments
01:53 Apple's AI Integration and Market Dynamics
04:20 The Evolution of AI Models and Market Impact
12:29 Antitrust and Market Strategies
17:34 Cloud Computing and Business Models
24:49 The Future of Cloud Machine Learning Providers
25:36 Marginal Costs in Consumer Internet Companies
26:16 Generative AI and Cost Efficiency
28:14 Part Two
28:14 Legal Tech and Large Language Models
30:05 Challenges in Selling Software to Law Firms
31:08 Error Rates and AI Hallucinations
34:36 Practical Use Cases for AI in Legal Scenarios
36:27 Evaluating AI's Potential and Limitations
41:05 Recognizing Tech Bubbles and Market Hype
44:59 Concluding Thoughts on AI and Market Trends
47:27 Credits
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This week we are talking bubbles - or not! - with Benedict Evans, an analyst with over 175,000 avid readers for his tech blog. Weâve done our level best to reflect on why bubbles happen, but what about calling them out before they burst. âIt would have been nice to have knownâ we were in a bubble before it caused trouble. That wish fits like an OJ Simpson glove into a recent column by Benedict exploring how and when to call them. With AI mania and NVIDIA up 130% this year and 700% in 18 months, lifting many other boats with it, this will be a timely conversation.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
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In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the phenomenon of market bubbles with tech analyst Benedict Evans. They discuss the intricacies of identifying bubbles before they burst, explore the role and future implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and touch upon how companies disclose crucial data. Benedict shares his career journey and insights on tech market dynamics, providing a detailed perspective on AI's potential impacts and strategic questions surrounding tech advancements. This episode offers a mix of reflective analysis and forward-looking forecasts in the tech landscape.
00:00 Introduction
01:06 Meet Benedict Evans
01:22 Benedict's Career Journey
02:59 The Art of Simplifying Complex Points
07:48 The Role of Public Companies in Market Bubbles
13:01 Tech Industry Cycles and Bubbles
19:56 Part Two
20:13 Generative AI: The Next Big Thing?
36:44 The Future of AI and Its Impact
39:48 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
40:20 Credits
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This week weâre going to split lanes as weâve got breaking news coming out of Canada that Willâs been knee deep in: soon after their Government tried to regulate Google and Meta news, theyâre now after Spotify and Netflix. Think contagion and buckle up - this may well be the sign of the regulatory times. Once weâre done with Canadians, we turn our attention to Cuppertino as weâve just seen the WWDC wrap up the calendar of set piece marketing - Google, Meta, Microsoft and more - all now done and dusted. It's all become a slick operation, but whatâs and not said can help us decipher the narratives of the most watched companies on the planet and these events have now gone mainstream.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
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In this episode of Bubble Trouble, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page delve into the recent regulatory developments in Canada targeting streaming giants like Spotify and Netflix following earlier regulation attempts on Google and Meta. They explore the implications of Canada's new gross revenue contribution policy on streaming services and its potential impact on consumers and competitors. Additionally, the duo examines the wrap-up of Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) and discusses the trends, leaks, and undertones of major tech company events, including the strategic presentations, the nuances of unsaid elements, and the ever-tightening grip of technological giants on the market. The episode aims to provide insights into the evolving landscape of tech regulation and market domination.
00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:08 Canadian Regulatory News
01:12 Impact on Streaming Services
01:30 Historical Context of Canadian Regulations
02:24 Current Regulatory Actions and Reactions
07:51 Tech Giants' Marketing Events
08:39 The Magnificent Seven and Market Concentration
10:17 The Role of Marketing in Tech
11:17 The Evolution of Tech Events
18:21 The Importance of Perception in Tech Announcements
21:03 Reading Between the Lines
32:14 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
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This week we turn to regulatory bubbles and the new buzz word: Gatekeepers! What are they, and what are they not and what gates do they actually keep? In forty five days, the European Commission drummed up an answer, while the US DoJ starts a court case about Google paying for search bar placements like Heinz beans play for shelf space in the grocery store. Weâve got 45 minutes with one of the best brains on the topic, Konstantina Bania, a Partner at the top firm Geradin Partners to understand all this. [Repeat from September, 2023.]
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This summer, a lot of us (and our children) will be packing our tents and heading to music festivals and concerts - there is trouble brewing. At one end, good luck buying a ticket and watching those fees add up. At the other end, the DoJ threw down the gauntlet and argued that Live Nation Ticketmaster needs to be broken up. This is big for music, and itâs also big for anti-trust - theyâve actually picked a fight and weâre ringing the bell for round one. Gloves off, where might there be punches below the belt. What can markets learn when the DoJ enters the ring?
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
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Bubble Trouble: The Live Nation Antitrust Case
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Independent Analyst Richard Kramer and Economist Will Page delve into the intricacies of the Live Nation antitrust case brought by the DOJ. They explore the history of antitrust regulations, Live Nation's market dominance, and the implications for the live music industry. The discussion covers topics such as the control of ticketing, venues, and artists by Live Nation, the bundling of services, and the economic impact on smaller venues. The hosts debate the potential outcomes of the case and critique the inefficiencies in the current ticketing system, especially the Ticketmaster app. They also touch on broader issues in live music, including the decline of small venues and the impact of social isolation on festival attendance.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
01:16 Part One
01:46 Understanding Antitrust and Live Nation's Market Power
03:59 Live Nation's Business Model and Market Impact
16:00 Part Two
17:15 The Ticketmaster Experience: A Consumer's Nightmare
27:06 Economic Realities of the Live Music Industry
34:44 Conclusion and Future Outlook
38:15 Credits
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When markets get fooled, stocks get âŠwell, WHACKED, to quote a famous Kramerism. Our audience deserves to know more about volatility - for all the PhDs, MBAs and CFAs working on Wall Street, for all the compliance rules and regulations, why is it that a stock can go from hero to zero so quickly? Why is stability in itself destabilizing?
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Understanding Market Volatility: The Seven Deadly Sins That Get Stocks Whacked
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosted by independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, the duo delves into the intricacies of stock market volatility and the factors that lead to significant drops in stock values, often referred to as getting 'whacked.' They explore why financial markets remain volatile despite compliance rules and thorough analysis by Wall Street's experts. Using recent examples like Duolingo and Double Verify, they highlight how sentiment, market expectations, and artificial intelligence fears influence stock performance. They introduce the concept of the seven deadly sinsâranging from expectations management to fake it till you make itâthat companies and analysts commit, causing stocks to tank. The discussion covers essential themes like the role of credibility, influence of peer performance, external market factors, and the impact of fear and greed. They also touch on larger market dynamics, such as the dominance of tech giants and the influence of algorithmic trading. The episode is both an educational dive into market mechanics and a cautionary tale for investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding broader market sentiments and the potential pitfalls of speculative trading.
00:00 Introduction
01:18 Part One
02:30 Recent Examples of Stocks Getting Whacked
06:08 The Role of Expectations in Market Behavior
10:53 Credibility and Its Impact on Stocks
16:17 The Influence of Peer Groups and Market Share
18:19 Mathematical Models and Black Swans
23:09 Part Two
24:15 The Sheer Size of Companies and Market Impact
25:13 Big Companies and Revenue Growth Challenges
26:33 Market Dynamics and Money Managers
27:04 Thought Experiment: Market Crowding
28:53 Taxing Market Capitalization
34:18 Fear and Greed in Financial Markets
40:11 Unprofitable IPOs and Market Distortions
42:47 Seven Deadly Sins of Stock Trading
46:22 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
46:53 Credits
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This week, with the world of podcasting descending on London for the Podcast Show, weâre going to turn the tables on ourselves and get a little introspective, figuring out what is happening with this Podcast format. This time two years ago, we got a little ahead of our skis with Spotify, Amazon and the like spending eight (and nine) figure sums on podcast companies. That bubble burst and now weâre picking up the pieces to see what the future might resemble given its recent roller coaster past. To do that, two guests and two of the very best: James Cridland, author of the bible that is Podnews and Jonas Woost of Bumper. The former understands the industry, the latter understands the listener and by the end of this conversation youâll find podcasts and podcasting a more rewarding listen.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
The episode features a discussion on the evolving dynamics of podcasting, including the recent burst of the investment bubble in the sector, the impact of this shift, and what the future holds for podcast creators and companies. Guests include James Cridland, editor of Pod News, and Jonas Woost from Bumper, who share insights into the industry trends, listener engagement, and the complexities of podcast advertising. The conversation also explores the nuances of podcast data analysis, the importance of understanding 'actual listening' versus 'downloads', and strategies for podcast growth and monetization. The episode aims to provide a comprehensive look at both the business side of podcasting and the listener engagement aspect, intending to inform and guide podcast creators and industry stakeholders.
00:02 Introduction
01:02 Part One
01:10 Introducing the Experts: Insights from the Front Lines
02:43 The Podcasting Landscape: Numbers, Growth, and Challenges
06:53 Adapting to Change: Strategies for Success in Podcasting
15:48 Understanding Podcast Advertising: Data, Attribution, and Impact
22:34 The Evolution of Podcast Metrics: Attention Over Downloads
22:43 The Power of Feedback: From Music to Podcasts
23:37 Part Two
23:46 Navigating the Podcast Landscape: Insights and Strategies
24:25 Decoding Podcast Listenership: Beyond the Numbers
32:02 The Future of Podcast Advertising: Challenges and Opportunities
32:10 The Intimacy of Podcasting: Engaging Niche Audiences
41:48 The Podcast Show Preview: Expectations and Predictions
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Who doesnât like to talk about Twitter and Tweets? Word of mouth (or tweet) is the secret sauce of its success. But has it ever been successful? And if it hasnât, how do you gauge the impact of Elon Muskâs shock therapy over the past two years? Journalist Kurt Wagner joins to share his deep dive profile of the tortured history of Twitter.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
This episode of Bubble Trouble features a conversation with Bloomberg journalist Kurt Wagner, author of 'Battle for the Bird,' a book about Twitter's tumultuous history and evolution, particularly under Elon Musk's ownership. The hosts, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, delve into Twitterâs origins, its struggle to monetize effectively compared to giants like Meta, and the significant influence of Jack Dorseyâs leadership style on the platform's direction. They discuss the platform's missed opportunities, such as Vine and Periscope, and how it became a place where 'good ideas go to die.' The discussion also covers Musk's takeover, his attempts to transform Twitter into 'X', and the challenges of balancing free speech with the need for content moderation and advertiser appeal. Wagner shares insights on the potential future of 'X', the impact of Musk's leadership on the platform's advertising and user engagement, and the skepticism surrounding the 'everything app' concept Musk envisions.
00:00 Introduction
01:02 Part One
01:02 Deep Dive with Kurt Wagner: The Story of Twitter
02:36 The Origins and Evolution of Twitter
06:20 Twitter's User Base and Business Model Explored
09:10 The Challenges of Twitter's Business Model
14:10 Board Dynamics and Google's Influence on Twitter
18:03 Extravagant Spending and Corporate Culture at Twitter
21:13 Reflections on Twitter's Stock Performance
23:47 The Almost Disney-Twitter Deal: A Glimpse into Corporate Negotiations
24:29 Twitter's Quest for a Savior and Its Struggle for Independence
25:53 Missed Opportunities: The Story of Vine and Periscope
27:27 Part Two
27:27 Transition to Part Two: The Elon Musk Era at Twitter
27:49 The Challenges of Rebranding Twitter to X and Musk's Controversial Leadership
28:32 The Impact of Elon Musk's Actions on Twitter's Ad Revenue and Brand Safety
36:52 The Struggle with Bots and Spam: Has It Gotten Worse?
40:06 Free Speech Under Musk: A Double-Edged Sword
44:26 The Everything App Ambition: A Skeptical View
46:33 Closing Thoughts and Acknowledgements
47:01 Credits
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