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FAI economist Hannah Randolph is joined by Luke Michaelides and Phil Gooding from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Consumer Prices team to talk about inflation statistics. We cover what measures of inflation are produced by ONS, how they differ, and recent developments in methodology and the data underlying the statistics. We end by discussing how inflation rates impact households and businesses.
Participants
Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Luke Michaelides, Branch Head, Consumer Prices Development and Subgroup Production, ONS
Phil Gooding, Statistician, Consumer Prices Inflation, ONS
Time stamps
(1:00) What are the different measures of inflation produced by ONS? How do they differ?
(2:25) What are the Household Costs Indices and what do they say about how inflation affects different groups?
(5:25) What types of data are used to produce these inflation measures?
(7:20) How have the methods of collecting data for and calculating inflation changed?
(10:20) What do changes in the inflation rate mean for households and businesses? What should people keep in mind when they hear about inflation on the news?
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(0:00) - Introducing the GEMINOA project - background and context
(1:16) - Key findings:
Glasgow's 46% emissions reductionNational grid decarbonisation impactSector-by-sector breakdown(3:32) - Local policy measurement challenges:
(7:30) - Economic implications:
(11:00) - Future outlook:
GEMINOA project developmentsPolicy implicationsUpcoming research -
Fehlende Folgen?
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In our 100th podcast episode, FAI Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Director João Sousa join economist Hannah Randolph to discuss what was announced in the UK budget statement and how it will affect Scotland. We also talk about whether OBR publications alongside the budget shed more light on the budgetary "black hole" left by the previous government, and whether or not this budget signals a significant change in UK fiscal policy.
Participants
Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Time stamps
(0:20) How will the tax decisions taken in yesterday's budget affect people in Scotland?
(9:10) How might the announcements yesterday influence the Scottish budget in December?
(17:30) What has changed about the fiscal rules and what impact has it had?
(29:50) Does this budget signal a change in the direction of UK fiscal policy?
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Deputy Director João Sousa joins FAI economist Hannah Randolph to discuss our expectations for the budget statement on Wednesday as well as what we can learn from past chancellors' first budgets and the role of the OBR in the budget process.
To read more about past chancellors' first budgets, check out the details here: https://fraserofallander.org/publications/uk-budget-preview-3-first-budgets-of-post-war-chancellors/
Participants
Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Time stamps
(0:20) What do other chancellors' first budgets tell us about what to expect in Rachel Reeves' first budget statement?
(6:00) What historical budgets happened in similar conditions to the present and what can we learn from them?
(10:24) How has the role of the OBR in the budget process changed over time?
(17:20) What do we expect in the budget statement on Wednesday?
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In this episode, Brodie Gillan is joined by Chirsty McFadyen, and Laura Robertson, who is a Research Manager at the Poverty Alliance. Brodie, Chirsty, and Laura discuss the Serving the Future project in the context of Challenge Poverty Week.
Serving the Future is a three-year action research project working with hospitality employers and workers funded by the Robertson Trust. The project is seeking to understand, reduce and prevent in-work poverty and identify changes that could be made within the hospitality sector.
You can find out more about Serving the Future here: https://www.servingthefuture.scot/
You can learn more about the Poverty Alliance & Challenge Poverty Week here: https://www.povertyalliance.org/
Participants
Brodie Gillan, Assistant Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Chirsty McFadyen, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Laura Robertson, Research Manager, Poverty Alliance
Timestamps
(00:47) What is Serving the Future?
(03:06) What is Challenge Poverty Week and how does it relate to Serving the Future?
(05:20) Why did we focus on the hospitality sector for this project?
(07:20) What are the main challenges facing low-paid workers in the hospitality sector?
(15:55) What conversations have we had with hospitality employers throughout the project?
(22:31) What can listeners learn about in-work poverty?
(27:02) What’s next for Serving the Future? -
(00:35) Mairi discusses the headlines from our commentary publication, covering the main indicators of economic conditions
(03:55) Douglas reflects on whether this chimes with the experience he is having with clients
(07:12) Mairi, Joao and Douglas discuss the latest data on Scottish Income Tax, and our old friend fiscal drag
(15:03) Mairi and Joao discuss our analysis of fiscal black holes
(21:33) We all speculate about the UK Budget on 30th October, focussing on the implications if capital gains tax features in the changes the Chancellor is likely to make.
(30:30) Mairi discusses some of our analysis on the Scottish Public sector.
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Episode Notes
In this episode, Hannah Randolph is joined by Chirsty McFadyen who leads on our learning disabilities employment research. Hannah and Chirsty discuss the Equality Act and its implementation issues, as well as some of our latest findings from speaking to employers.
We are also joined by Liam Brown, Entrepreneurial Executive at Young Enterprise Scotland, who discussed his neurodivergent condition and how language has impacted his experiences of employment.
Learning disabilities research by the Fraser of Allander Institute can be found at the following link: https://fraserofallander.org/research/adults-with-learning-disabilities-in-scotland/
Our report prepared for the Scottish Parliament on the disability employment gap can be found at: https://digitalpublications.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefings/Report/2024/1/12/434f4dc4-caa1-4971-b5f3-7699e70ec1ff
Participants
Chirsty McFadyen, Economics Associate, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Liam Brown, Entrepreneurial Executive, Young Enterprise Scotland
Timestamps
(0:00) Introduction
(00:14) What is the equality act and how does it define disability?
(02:04) What was the reason for having the legislation?
(03:46) What have been some of the issues with it?
Interview with Liam Brown (06:45)
(14:26) Learning disabilities and employers research findings
(24:14) What advice works for employers hiring people with learning disabilities?
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Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Director João Sousa join FAI economist Hannah Randolph to discuss GERS statistics for 2023-24, including the net fiscal balance, details of changes in revenues and spending, how Scotland compares to other UK nations and regions, and what it all means for the independence debate.
GERS 2023-24 can be found on the Scottish Government website at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-gers-2023-24/
Participants
Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Time stamps
(0:20) What is GERS and what do the statistics show this year?
(3:40) Why are there versions with and without North Sea revenues?
(8:55) How do these figures compare to previous years?
(10:45) How do these figures compare across UK regions and nations?
(15:20) More on revenue and spending - income tax, pension, social protection, and locally administered taxes
(23:55) What implications does GERS have for the independence debate?
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FAI Deputy Director João Sousa is joined by OBR Deputy Chief of Staff Laura Gardiner to discuss the OBR's recent work on the drivers of the growing gap in income tax paid per person in Scotland relative to the UK average.
Find the OBR's working paper on devolved income tax at: https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/forecast-methodology/#working
More OBR analysis and devolved forecasts are available at: https://obr.uk/topics/scotland-wales-and-northern-ireland/
Timestamps:
(00:45) The OBR's role in forecasting Scottish taxes
(06:00) The main drivers of differences in income tax per person paid between Scotland and the UK as a whole
(09:40) Employment income differences and underlying drivers
(19:30) Sectoral decomposition
(21:10) The effect of progressive taxation on income tax revenues and how it differs across the UK
(24:20) The effect of the income distribution on the results
(28:20) The effect of Scottish income tax policy
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Participants
Dr Hannah Randolph, Economic Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Professor Rebecca Kay, Senior Researcher, Migration Policy Scotland
Time stamps
(0:20) Context: Immigration trends in Scotland
(1:40) What are current attitudes towards immigration like in Scotland?
(6:45) What views do people have on the contribution of immigrants to Scotland?
(14:45) What might change about the UK government's approach to immigration policy?
(20:40) Finances, employability, and poverty of immigrant households in Scotland
(27:35) What approaches might improve access to services for migrants?
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Participants
Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Emma Congreve, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Time stamps
(0:20) New cabinet and expectations for a fiscal event
(6:00) What changes might Labour make to workers' rights and employment law?
(10:55) A Universal credit review and the potential for change to the two-child limit and local housing allowance
(18:20) Will we see a push for social care reform, and what does it mean for Scotland ?
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PARTICIPANTS
Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
TIME STAMPS
(00:40) Main policy areas in the party manifestos
(02:00) Devolution, devolved issues, and funding
(06:00) Social security
(08:40) Q&A: What would an increase in Housing Benefit in Scotland mean for Scottish taxpayers?
(12:35) Q&A: Is there scope to implement an Essentials Guarantee?
(15:20) Q&A: Are there any plans to reform the Work Capability Assessment?
(17:50) Q&A: Are there prospects for Levelling Up or City Deals funding to come to Scotland?
(21:00) Immigration
(23:50) Energy transition
(25:50) What have the parties said about how they will fund and implement their manifesto commitments?
(33:00) Economic strategy
(35:00) Tax policy and costings in the party manifestos
(41:00) Is cracking down on tax compliance a feasible way to raise revenues?
(45:15) Q&A: Should UK parties have access to independently estimated costings for manifesto commitments?
(48:35) Q&A: Are the economy and living standards set to improve before 2026?
(58:55) Q&A: What are the main challenges facing the next UK government?
(1:03:00) Q&A: Will the new government stick to their tax and spending commitments?
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PARTICIPANTS
Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
TIME STAMPS
(0:20) Are plans to increase tax compliance credible?
(10:10) Can the UK government raise the global minimum tax on corporations?
(11:40) More on tax: Reform's costings & Alba's plan to halve VAT (temporarily?)
(16:50) Is the UK State Pension low compared to other countries?
(21:50) What's next in FAI General Election coverage
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PARTICIPANTS
Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
TIME STAMPS
(0:20) Fiscal headroom, economic growth, and the role of the OBR forecasts
(15:55) Can the new government borrow to invest?
(24:58) Tax proposals in party manifestos
(34:02) What's next in the FAI General Election coverage
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Participants:
Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Timestamps:
(0:20) New inflation numbers and BoE interest rate decision
(8:40) Manifesto update: SNP, Scottish Labour, and Scottish Greens
(11:30) Fact-check: £4,800 additional on mortgage payments if the Conservatives win?
(17:20) Fact-check: Have Scottish productivity and GDP per head grown faster than the rest of the UK?
(27:40) Fiscal rules and borrowing to invest
(29:45) What to look out for in FAI coverage of the General Election next week
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Participants:
Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of StrathclydeProfessor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of StrathclydeDr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of StrathclydeTimestamps:
(0:20) Are the parties' costings and funding plans for their commitments believable?
(09:50) Additional staff and workforce commitments - HMRC, education, and the NHS
(15:40) What's next in the FAI General Election coverage
Correction: When we recorded the podcast, we expected the Scottish Labour manifesto next Monday, but it's actually out today. Stay tuned for more manifesto analysis later this week!
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Participants
Ben Cooper. Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of StrathclydeJoão Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of StrathclydeTimestamps
(00:51) Initial reactions to the manifestos published this week
(18:35) Our Health and Social Care Briefing Paper
(25:55) What's to come this week
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Participants:
Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of StrathclydeProfessor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of StrathclydeJoão Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of StrathclydeTimestamps:
(00:20) £2k rise in taxes per household to fund Labour's commitments?
(12:30) Council Tax reform and capital gains tax
(22:00) Child Benefit charge threshold
(30:00) FAI General Election coverage and events to look forward to
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Participants:
Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of StrathclydeProfessor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of StrathclydeJoão Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of StrathclydeTimestamps:
(0:30) First GE debate in Scotland
(8:50) Immigration announcements
(19:00) Personal care reform
(24:10) What's next: FAI General Election publications and events
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