Redemption: Easter & Passover
MAGA: US econ growing------ RGDP, cap-ex, job openings, unemployment claims, supply-side policies
Next big thing? Growth message. Infrastructure, trade, immigration, Wall, N Korea, tough trade/free trade, Korus
Trump v. Amazon
Stock outlook: profits strong, cautious Fed, trade obstacle, FANG
Is there too much budget spending? Impoundment? Filibuster?
Surprisingly tough tariffs on China. Stk market very upset. Trump negotiating, and he may get it right (N Korea, NATO etc). But a bit of riverboat gamble if Xi doesn't play ball. However steel tariffs excluded from bunch of nations, most interestingly EU, along w/ Brazil, Argentina, S Korea and of course Canada & Mexico. This is good for NAFTA.China created this problem, Trump trying to solve it. Some negative econ hits, but small. Certain states, esp farm, will be hit. China now 1st world country; must behave like one. Adhere to WTO. Stop tech transfers & stealing intell property rights.Steel & aluminum tariffs wind up hurting China & Russia most.Trade deficits don't matter. flip side of valuable capital inflows. Deficits will grow in 3-4% econ. Why not remove taxes on all Asian countries but China? Vietnam? Coalition of willing to change China.Fed rate to 1.75% is ok. But yield curve is flattening. Profits holding up. Are stocks overreacting to tariffs? Cap-ex strong. But Admin must stay on message. Infrastructure?The Democrats abandon Catholics.Budget deal a lousy one. But Trump is right: Give him line-item veto/recission power. End filibuster.
Trump on Tariffs: A negotiating tactic. Even Feldstein. Coalition of willing to hit China. But not blanket tariffs trade war against world.
Loss in Pa: What's it mean? Is Trump off message? Growth, jobs, wages, prosperity tax cuts, Phase 2 tax cuts. Liz Peek & Melissa Francis.
Predicting the markets: Ed Yardeni
Insiders look at SEC: Norm Champ--- preventing next crash. Sarbanes Oxcley. Dodd Frank. Volcker rule.
Stocks: another down week. Why? Inflation-rates-profits? Emerging mkts? Bouroudjian-Polcari
Money/politics: Will Kudlow be crushed? Trump in Pa? Off message?
Hard to find better employment report. Big jobs, moderate wages, plenty new people came to work. Growth w/out inflation. True around the world. Ed Lazear, Stanford & Hoover; Joe Lavorgna. NAIRU dead? Phillips curve dead?Trump backs off tariffs. Virtually no one will pay. They could have been harmful to US econ. Foreign retaliation. Gary Cohn leaves. Trump negotiating style: punch them in teeth first, then make a deal. Nato spending & tariffs. Why not targeted tariffs against China? Save steel w/ budget subsidies & transparency. GOP Congress & Ryan against. Nationalist? Protectionist? Or fair & free trade?Dan Henniger, deputy editor WSJ editorial page. Trump's Hoover temptation. Apres Cohn, le deluge? Trump's Tariff folly. Trump attacks WSJ.Trump's tariffs hurt trade, which is good. Tear down barriers. Capital inflows.Stocks w/ Jon Najarian & Jeff Kleintop: overheating? Inflation? Tariffs? Jobs?Gen Jack Keane: N Korean story. Trump sanctions work? Denuclearize? Planning for meeting? Goals?Money/Politics: Trump going for clean reset? Bossie & Lewandowsky in WH? McMaster? Kelly? JiVanka?
Blanket tariffs on steel & aluminum a bad idea. Tax hike on biz users & consumers. Prosperity-killer? Will it doom NAFTA? All hell could break loose. Stocks saying don't do it. Trade wars are not good. Same 25% & 10% steel & aluminum for allies & enemies. Veronique de Rugy & money politics. POTUS has exec authority to do it.
I continue to urge Gary Cohn to stay on job. More trade battles coming.
OMB Director Mick Mulvaney interview. GDP growth pays for tax cuts. Spending tougher than you think. Econ strong. Trade protection not good. What can be done w/ CFPB? Not much.
Former 3-time NYS Gov George Pataki. How can GOP re-capture Northeast? Outlook for mid-terms? Econ? Taxes? Immigration? Guns?
Nancy Tengler & Mike Ozanian on stocks? Another down week. Damage from trade protection. NAFTA? Trade war? Inflation may roar back? Powell looking at rule-based monetary policy. Taylor rule. Profits & revenues? Longs & shorts?
Gen Jack Keane: Trade war & foreign policy?Allies & enemies both hit. Russian saber rattling. Chinese dictatorship. Tsi for life?
Money & Politics: New data counters liberal pessimism. Trade politics. Cohn to stay? I say yes. Canada & others go to WTO?
Mary Kissel & Liz Peek: What's Trump gonna do about guns? School guards (ex cops)? Age limit? Teachers packing guns? Restraint order? Automatic weapons? Gun bump? Is it NRA, or drug companies who prescribe crazies really bad drugs?
Dems gonna get bushwhacked in mid-terms? Econ/tax cuts? Dems rooting for stk & econ failure? Trump nails them on immigration?
Trump rocks CPAC! 7 more years? 50% Rasmussen poll approval.
Why is America at war w/ itself?
How Billy Graham changed my life-- George Bush quit drinking.
Kevin Hassett CEA chair releases Trump econ report. Growth? Inflation? Wages-inflation? Wage-earners helped the most? JPM & Goldman say no. Steel protection? NAFTA? Trade deficit? Foreign investors buy US debt? Weak dollar inflation? Interest rates?
Guy Adami & Ron Kruszewski on stocks? 10-year going to 4%? Real v inflation? Sometimes Stks up as rates rise. Fed tighter? Profits strong? Stk safety net? BoA worried about cryptocurrencies.
Congressman Tom MacArthur on Legislative outlook: Immigration, guns, infrastructure, entitlements in budget. US at war w/ itself.
Noelle Nikpour, Jimmy P, Steve Moore: Trump budget-- OMB. Much better numbers. Tax Foundation deficits much lower. Dems attack shareholder repurchase. Investment boom coming on fast. What are big donors saying about Trump & mid-terms?
Trump must return to KingDollar to sustain prosperity and march to re-election. @Moore, Steve @James Pethokoukis@Elizabeth Peek
Will infrastructure be a boondoggle or serious growth measure? Fed gov't? Public/Private?
Is there an inflation threat? @Lavorgna Joseph @Lavorgnanomics. Capgoods boom? More potential to grow?
@davidbahnson: " A Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It."
Sen Bill Cassidy: Rising GOP mid-term outlook w/ tax cut popularity & growth/jobs/wages. Russian Indictments? No Trump collusion? Infrastructure.
Sen David Perdue: Is Trump budget really so bad? Reform entitlements? Workfare? Deficits & Debt? Budget reform? Immigration gonna make it?
Stock market comes back strong. Have rates peaked? Correction over? Inflation fears? Deficits & debt worries? Bitcoin update?
Is GOP still party of spending restraint? Is Tea Party over? 2-year budget deal eliminates spending caps & sequester. Special tax breaks ? Entitlements? Medicaid? OB-Care? Rules? 20%/GDP ? Cong Mark Meadows, chair of Freedom Caucus
Is economy fundamentally sound? So stocks still good buy at lower prices? War on Rich won't help the poor: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-war-on-the-rich-wont-help-the-poor-1518134282?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1
It's real interest rates from stronger economy that led to 10% stock correction. Vix derivatives? Profits still mother's milk of economy? When to buy? https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-slump-continues-1518138066
The post-war Marshall plan helped save West European democracies from Communism. Will Trump America First weaken alliance? https://www.wsj.com/articles/review-when-the-marshall-plan-helped-plot-a-new-course-for-the-west-1518212300 https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-china-impose-a-new-world-order-1518219178
Seton Hall speech on JFK & the Reagan Revolution-----Kudlow & Domitrovic
Is White House again splintering into disorder? Kelly-Porter-Thornton-Cohn-Mulvaney
American Spies gave $100K to Russian to get dirt on Trump!!!!
Whole Russian investigation a scam based on phony dossier from Clinton payroll. Give Mueller 3 months to rap it all up. There's no there there.600 point stock drop from higher real & market rates and stronger economy. Correction a good thing. Buy the dip.Don't forget excellent Davos & SOTU speeches. America open for biz. Free, fair & reciprocal trade; no NAFTA pullout. Appeal to Dems cooperation. Euro social justice ceos may hate Trump, but now they're behind his policies cause he's making so much money for them.Do Dems really want immigration reform? Doubtful. Budget shutdown. Debt limit. Infrastructure?Strong jobs report. Wages rising. Econ shifting into high gear. Supply-side impact from tax rate reduction. More people working do not cause inflation. Gold falling.Mid-term election looks much closer w/ rising econ, end of Russian nonsense, Trump wanting immigration deal. What do Dems represent besides Trump hating.
America First Triumphs in Davos. Open for business. Going to Davos a brilliant strategy. But America First does not mean America Alone.
Trump accommodating NAFTA & TPP? Reciprocity. Dollar will get stronger & stronger.
Increasingly prominent Sen David Perdue standing w/ Trump on immigration. Tax reform investment boom. SOTU preview.
Stocks still on a tear. New records. Dollar? Gold? Oil? Strong investment. Profits. Fed rate hike?
Did Trump really want to fire Mueller? Should he? Should he appear under oath before Mueller? What's this classified document w/ Clinton operatives & phony dossier & FISA?
Will secular stagnationists Larry Summers and Jason Furman eat crow.
A new more flexible Trump on trade, immigration? Policy power of Gen Kelly?
Trump tax cuts & regulatory rollback are transforming econ. Private sector biz leading charge. Apple & WalMart key decisions. Capex, wages, jobs & growth.
How to make immigration work: Prof Ed Lazear of Stanford- Hoover.
Interest rate induced correction in stock market? Why is dollar weak?
Dems would rather have gov't shutdown than help Dreamers w/ full reform of immigration.
Want to raise worker wages? Cut corp tax.
Immigration puzzle. Trump swears, but so what? Many presidents do. Not racism, but frustration . Durbin wants visa lottery, Trump doesn't. Terrorist killed 8 and injured 8 in NYC from Visa Lottery. Trump wants merit program, not equal diversity. DACA must be accompanied by wall/barrier/drones/policing/window. $18b. Merit, not family chain. Can there be bi-partisan deal? Dems rather talk about racism than immigration. Ryan: " Very unhelpful...very unfortunate."
Remarkable stock market continues. Wall St raising growth & profit forecasts. Higher real rates & correction? 3% RGDP, 15% profits, big capex, stronger consumer. Wall St analysts crediting Trump. Dudley & Kaplan fear overheating. Demand-siders. Dudley never understood supply-side incentives to raise econ potential to grow. Where's inflation? Watch gold, dollar, Breakevens, TIPS. Energy push temporary.
Mainstream media wrong: corps already paying higher wages. Much more to come from investment boom.3 straight 3% growth quarters first time since Bush tax cuts 2005\. WalMart big wage hike. Toyota plant in Alabama.
Davos good idea for Trump. World central stage to promote econ growth. Tax & regulatory rollback. Infrastructure. Immigration. Foreign policy triumphs. Along w/ 55 minute immigration meeting in Cabinet Room, shows world how capable he is. Like Reagan G-7 in 1981-83\. Bannon & Wolff wrong.
Medicaid work requirements completely right.
New IRS w/holding schedules, w/ brackets & marginal rates. States want charitable deductions to replace SALT deduction. Legal? Municipality v. state? Why not just cut state taxes?
Lower taxes reduce deficits, not raise them.
Trump on NAFTA. Rather negotiate, but will pull out. Bad for biz & market. $71b trade gap w/ Mexico. $17n w/ Canada. So what?
Bannon belly-up, stocks soar. His brand of populism is anti-growth.Trump decision to cut ties w/ Bannon a great decision. Good for Trump, economy, international relations. Bannon out at Breitbart? Political meaning of rift? Bannon PAC is dead. Will Dems back Bannon to attack Trump? Michael Wolff?Camp David meeting to determine 2018 agenda. Welfare reform, infrastructure, budget, immigration. Where's Steven Mnuchin? Cohn stays? $18b wall/barrier? Mexico pays? Chain migration? Merit system? Sanctuary cities?Econ growth 3-4%? Manufacturing rebound? Biz investment cap-ex boom? Wages already rising, much more coming? Will Fed panic?Gold flat under Yellen; dollar up 16%. Price rule? Powell cautious in 2012\. Came around. Lauds Fed staff forecasts. Decent jobs report. 10-year bond jump to 3-3.5%?Stocks driven by good profits outlook & tax cuts. Earnings revised up to 12% in '18\. Techs,energy, materials, financials, insurance/reinsurance. BUT: key factor is rate rise from better growth & capital returns. Long rate correction in stocks? Then rally continues
rump/GOP will do well in 2018. Don't listen to fake news pundits & fake polls. Investment boom econ after tax cuts. Key to everything. And everyone will benefit. Rasmussen/McLoughlan: 46-53, same as Obama.
The world according to Art Laffer. Growth pay-for deficits. Dollar? Fed? Lindsay v. Clarida? Stocks? Supply-side tax cuts not inflationary. Blinder says corps pay taxes, not people! Corp tax cuts don't affect people. Trade war fears?
Top 10 accomplishments made for strong 2017. What's in store for 2018? Budget battle runs into infrastructure. Dems want $1 tr from gov't. Tough trade tariff actions for NAFTA, China, steel, aluminum. China caught selling fuel to China--Russia too. Daca, Wall, refugees, tighter restrictions on legal immigration, Merit replaces family chain.
Let Trump be Trump. Home run NYT interview. Staff didn't know. So what? Trump made his own plate at Christmas buffet Mara Lago-- talks to many people.
2018 econ outlook? Tax cuts, profits, rates, SALT effect, global econ better. US boom helps world.
Can stocks do it again in 2018? Best & worst in 2017. Correction? Oil, gold, rates, bitcoin. Wealth effect? Goldman takes $5b 1-time hit. Stay w/ financials? Tax cuts priced in?
GOP tax cut Is Dems worst nightmare. Reviving econ, jobs, wages, etc. Isn't 4% better than 2%? Fake polls. Trump endorses Ron DeSantis Fla. Gov.
Trump snatches victory from jaws of defeat. Dems in very bad place. Front end of first investment boom in 20 years. Proof of the pudding is in the eating. 4% is better than 2%. Don't you agree? Corporate tax cut dividend.
Higher GDP pays for lost revenues. Middle class winner? Rising tide lifts all boats: everyone wins.
Mid-term outlook much better w/ tax cuts & growth. No mid-term disaster (The Hill). Polling is awful. Take-home pay in February. Tax revolt in blue states?
Stock boom continues. Higher 10-year to 3.5%? Profits? Fed? Multiples? Sell 100-year bonds?
Gen Keane on Trump Doctrine/national security strategy. Economic security is national security. China/Russia?
Money politics: Jimmy P welcomes Trump tax cut! Budget fight? Next agenda.
Pro-growth tax reform sets stage for investment boom. Everyone benefits. JTC: higher GDP pays for tax cuts. Most powerful growth factors.FIFO out. One need not be pro-child credit to be pro-child. Social engineering. High rates & big credit doesn't work. Front end of investment boom. Look at biz equipment. 3rd straight 3% quarter. Retail sales.
Fed isn't tax cut enemy. No inflation. 3 more hikes in 2018? Why?
Investigate investigators. FBI story spinning out of control. Clinton operatives running investigations. Insane. Trump-hating lawyer trying to pay women to come forward w/ new allegations. Sell to media. Take commissions. Incredible tale of reckless partisan FBI Strzoka and girlfriend.
Bitcoin boom? Regulations? Stocks too high? Global growth and liquidity. No inflation. Big stock market week. Dollar & gold steady.
McLaughlin poll warnings.
Money Politics. Bannon dead. Defending Rubio.
Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie on new book: Let Trump be Trump
Liz Peek and Mark Simone on the treatment of Trump by the press
Stock market and all financial indicators all up. Here comes the Boom!
Money and politics discuss the tax cut bill and the economic effects
Sen Roy Blunt of GOP leadership will talk about Senate tax bill & next steps. Will back door capgains tax hike on individuals be taken out?
Charlie Gasparino & Dan Clifton talk taxes. Trillions more in revenues.
I'd vote for it. You should, too. Pluses & minuses.
Trump expects to be cleared in Mueller probe despite Flynn plea.
John Hinderaker & David French talk Flynn, Mueller & Trump. No collusion. Weak case.
Kevin O'Leary & Stephen Weiss: Biz tax cuts & flying stock market.
Doug Schoen's new book "Putin on the March." He is succeeding. Trump policy. Mueller? Tillerson gone?
Art Laffer's outlook for taxes, Fed, rates, econ, stocks.Steve Moore on Soros' $18b tax dodge.Tax bill update: key points:corp rate & implementation/retroactive; small biz pass-through treatment/Johnson; ACA mandate repeal; SALT; corp interest deduction; back-door capital gains hike. Alabama certifies Dec 26.Much to be grateful on economy; cap-ex rising; share buybacks falling; 3.4% RGDP.Proper poll weighting R's & D's show different results, esp. taxes.Bruce Bartlett : "The Truth Matters"---- killing fake news.Stocks soaring. Fed rate hike Dec;what about 2018? Kill off tax cuts w/ Phillips Curve? Black Friday? Consumers decent shape, what about retail stocks? Trump effect?