Episodios
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Nvidia surprised the street with another major beat to guidance estimates for its Q2 earnings release - arguably the most widely watched corporate earnings report globally in 2023, with the stock +9% higher in after-hours trading.
However, in the following Asia trading session - which is the world's first region to start the full trading day, and thereby the first to react to the A.I. giant's strong quarter and optimistic guidance - the various market reactions were surprisingly tepid. Shares of TSMC, SK Hynix, Advantest and other "A.I. plays" were consistent in being fairly muted. The broader Nikkei225 and Nasdaq 100 index futures were also limited in both upside and in volume traded.
Weston Nakamura walks through these market cues out of Asia, which point to a potentially disappointing market response on NVDA shares themselves at US market open later, as well as other A.I. thematic shares globally.
Weston also provides the market background of what had helped drive the A.I. and NDX momentum from last quarter, as well as the August market sell-off for critical context in understanding NVDA and A.I. momentum plays.
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China has had a very rough 2023, in markets and in the real economy. But, last week was a particularly brutal week for China’s markets, as the Hang Seng Index closed the week in bear market territory, and the yuan edged ever closer to its treacherous 15-year lows - all of which had spilled over to broader global markets.
Weston Nakamura gives a comprehensive overview of what happened in China through the week of utmost consequence to global markets, including record strong yuan fixings, Country Garden Holdings Group’s bond defaults, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group and the $3 trillion Chinese shadow banking industry contagion risk, and China’s policymakers daily policy proposals in attempt to support markets (to no avail), and much more.
This is not only a way to catch up on a critical and consequential week of non-stop headlines and developments, but this is the ongoing state of affairs in China that had been dragging global equity markets down since the start of August, and therefore is relevant to all investors everywhere.
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¿Faltan episodios?
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As followers of Market Depth Podcast know- this year's NASDAQ upside rally was largely driven by Japan and the Nikkei225. Now, Weston Nakamura explains how the current market sell-off is being driven by China, and the plunging yuan.
Weston also discusses his views on the Japanese yen, and how he is approaching the FX market intervention risk, as the yen weakens to previous unilateral intervention levels - as well as his views on the Chinese yuan, also reaching critical levels despite heavy-handed state intervention underway.
This is the episode that will make equity investors, particularly US equities, to fixate on the Asia market impact effect.
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Ahead of the US July CPI data and the 30-year Treasury auction, Weston Nakamura follows up from the previous episode of Market Depth with an update on bond market activity from Japanese investors, who have been driving the week's drop in global sovereign bond yields via the JGB and US Treasury markets.
Using futures markets, Weston shows the renewed bullish sentiment as exhibited by a surprisingly strong 30-year JGB auction, and a smooth scheduled Bank of Japan bond buying operation.
Japan is once again back to anchoring global bond yields - for now.
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With still no further clarity on Bank of Japan’s new policy framework of Yield Curve Control, and currency and cash bond markets out of sync, Weston Nakamura examines market price action and activity on US and Japan rates through the lens of futures markets, in order to determine if cross asset market behavior is normalizing.
Weston also notes the schedule for this week, in which there will be 30-year auctions held in both the Japanese Government Bond market, as well as the US Treasury market, within 2 days of one another. Given the respective policy setups for US debt issuance and Bank of Japan YCC, there may be competition for investors’ capital playing out at these long-dated bond auctions.
Finally, Weston offers a potential theory as to why Fitch Ratings had suddenly downgraded their credit rating of US debt, while subsequently publishing positive commentary on Japan’s credit risk in light of the Bank of Japan’s surprise jump in interest rates - which largely went unnoticed. In doing so, Weston dives into the very active world of of yen-denominated foreign bond issuance, in which global corporates and sovereigns have been rushing in to Japan in order to tap the last bastion of cheap money left.
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Developed markets globally saw a dramatic rise in sovereign bond yields that spanned this whole week - notably at the long end of US Treasuries. Some attribute the move to Fitch Ratings downgrade of US debt, while others point to the government's announcement to boost its bond issuance in the coming months.
Following up from the previous episode of Market Depth, Weston Nakamura shows how this week's global bond rout not only stems directly from the Japanese Government Bond market and the Bank of Japan's recent surprise policy change to the way in which it conducts Yield Curve Control policy, but also how previous major episodes of extreme global bond market volatility had been triggered by an illiquid, malfunctioning JGB market, and Bank of Japan meetings as market moving catalysts.
In light of these recent developments in policy experimentation and purposeful obfuscation by the central bank, Weston also provides an explainer on a "trading-day-in-the-life" of a Bank of Japan bond buying operation for a critical dose of clarity as we move forward with Bank of Japan's experimental processes.
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At the July 2023 Monetary Policy Meeting, the Bank of Japan took markets by surprise (after "pre-announcing" its policy 10 hours prior during US trading hours and moving global currency, equity and bond markets) by making a significant change to its Yield Curve Control policy framework, in which it lifts the upper trading band on 10-year JGB yields from 0.50% to 1%. The central bank also made a major revision upwards on its inflation forecasts for fiscal year 2023 to 2.5%, well above its 2% target. This is the first policy change implemented under newly appointed Governor Ueda.
While the consensus debate revolves around whether or not this is the start of Bank of Japan's exit from its outlier accommodative policies, Tokyo-based Weston Nakamura believes that there is far more to the policy decision than just a "YCC tweak."
Aided by utilizing financial media outlets to move markets and clear out existing positions, the Bank of Japan is attempting to wrestle its policy away from the hands of markets, and return it back under its own control by purposely introducing elements of confusion and uncertainty - which it labels as "flexibility."
Weston gives a historic overview of how Yield Curve Control trading bands had been a market-creation in the first place, what the market implications are, and why this policy change fundamentally reshapes how the Bank of Japan and market participants interact.
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The final week of July ends with the three major central banks’ policy decisions - the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan - each with their own set of issues and tools respectively, and all of which are highly interconnected with one another. However, the economic backdrop is completely unique this time - as Japan now has a higher inflation rate than the US, while still in easing mode.
Would the Bank of Japan really begin tightening monetary policy, just as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and others are finished? Just a hint of policy convergence, particularly between the ECB and the Bank of Japan, can have significant, widespread market impact.
Weston Nakamura begins the episode with an update on the PBOC’s daily fixing of the Chinese yuan exchange rate. He then discusses the Bank of Japan once again leaking their own policy through media outlets ahead of the official policy meeting. And finally, Weston takes a look across various markets globally, and assesses what may occur if sentiment around policy divergence shifts to policy convergence.
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With the strongest daily yuan fixing since November 2022, along with state banks sustaining dollar-selling, and the adjustment of a cross border financing rule to further discourage yuan sell pressure all in combination, the People’s Bank of China was able to forcefully rally the yuan significantly higher.
In addition, China's USD-denominated junk bond market sees its worst three-day plunge so far this year, as property developers Wanda Group, as well as two state-backed firms signal imminent default.
Weston Nakamura ties the efforts of the PBOC to uplift the yuan with the severe volatility in China's USD-bond markets, and points to China's alarming behavior that something of utmost concern seems underway.
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With China's Q2 GDP and retail sales figures missing consensus estimates for yet another round of data disappointment out of China, and the PBOC injecting a mere 3 billion yuan of liquidity to their 1-year MLF operation. Weston Nakamura looks at currency and commodity markets as weakness across China's economic landscape continues to be left unattended by policymakers' lack of stimulus measures.
Weston also discusses why Wall Street economists seem to be caught off-guard by China's economic data deterioration time and again, particularly in the first half of 2023.
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US inflation figures came in considerably softer than expectations, and global currencies, bonds, equities and commodities rose at the expense of the U.S. dollar.
But what happens when US CPI is now below Japan CPI? What does that mean for markets (namely the yen), and the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting (with direct implications on global bond markets)?
Weston Nakamura discusses the US vs Japan inflation differential as it relates to the Bank of Japan policy, pointing to recent history as precedence.
Weston also gives an overview of Asia currencies for the week, and their respective performances against a crumbling USD, with particular focus on the futures-driven yen move, as well as the lagging Chinese yuan.
Listen To Michael Howell from Crossborder Capital on weaponizing the yen:
"China’s Stimulus Takes A Backseat To Save The Yuan | Michael Howell"
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In today's episode, Weston Nakamura explains the recent price action of the world's worst performing currencies in 2023: the Japanese yen's sudden surge as options on futures expire and crowded positions close, and the Chinese yuan in crisis mode as the authorities continue to urgently exercise multiple yuan-supportive measures. Weston suggests that should the yen short covering gain momentum, global yields may fall in tandem.
Lastly, Weston follows up on his recent and ongoing thesis of the leadership shakeup currently underway at the People's Bank of China with additional thoughts - namely, why the central bank is currently operating without an official governor in place?
And what exactly happened to the recently re-appointed (and subsequently fired) incumbent Governor Yi Gang that made his presence as the PBOC Governor so unacceptably toxic?
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In order to get a truly expert assessment on the liquidity picture out of China, Michael Howell from Crossborder Capital joins Weston Nakamura, as they explore Weston’s thesis from the previous episode of Market Depth - China’s immediate term priority is to stop the yuan’s precipitous fall. This has been made evident by the PBOC’s daily yuan fixings stronger, as well as their net liquidity draining that had been occurring over the last several trading days.
In addition, Michael incorporates his view on how the Japanese yen is being weaponized to attack the Chinese yuan - a theory that Michael and Weston have been discussing on an ongoing matter.
Weston also discusses another potential working theory on China’s economic weakness as inflationary for the developed economies, contrary to mainstream views.
Follow Michael Howell on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/crossbordercap
http://www.crossbordercapital.com
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Over the weekend, the top brass at China’s central bank Yi Gang (PBOC Governor) and Guo Shuqing (PBOC Communist Party Chief) were suddenly removed from their posts after having been reappointed by President Xi Jinping less than four months ago. Meanwhile, PBOC Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng has been elevated to the role of Party Secretary at PBOC, and is also expected to be named Governor of the PBOC shortly. Pan is also currently the Director of SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) - the foremost currency management body which oversees China’s massive $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves.
The consensus narrative out of financial media on this major development has been that “Pan is a continuity candidate,” providing stability in a time of escalating economic risk (which, as Weston Nakamura points out, is an absurd takeaway in itself). However, according to Weston Nakamura, what the policy stimulus preferences of the newly appointed leadership is not what key headline is - rather, this is part of a bigger effort from China as of late - to somehow stem the sharply declining yuan.
In light of the outright failure from broader financial media to properly inform and analyze a major central bank reshuffling its top level officials in the midst of market and economic turmoil, Weston Nakamura presents a deep-dive explanation and analysis on what is currently underway, namely:
Pan Gongsheng has been elevated with great urgency to the very top of China’s central bank for one reason only - to defend the yuan as it approaches a 15-year breakdown level.
This is a must-watch/listen, and share episode of Market Depth.
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Bank of Japan Governor Ueda surprisingly stole the show when making his first international English appearance since taking office at the ECB’s annual gathering of central bankers in Sintra, Portugal this week, during a live panel with fellow peer central bankers including Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Bailey.
Clips from the event of the new face of the Bank of Japan have been going viral, as the soft-spoken academic made light-hearted jokes onstage in an otherwise tense moment in macro policy. Yet, there is far more to take away from the event than just Governor Ueda delighting the crowd.
Weston Nakamura breaks down the new head of the BOJ’s behavior, including what the otherwise outgoing Governor avoids answering, and points to a very telling picture of the overall modern day inter-central bank relationships.
Footage and clips from European Central Bank ECB Forum on Central Banking - Policy Panel
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/ecbforum/html/index.en.html
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After being sidelined by coronavirus, Weston Nakamura returns to Market Depth with charts and graphics to discuss the Japanese yen edging ever closer to the critical 145 level against USD - currently the single most important market and price level anywhere, as markets are on Japan officials’ intervention alert.
Weston shows how Japan’s October 2022 unilateral foreign exchange direct market intervention was the most pivotal moment of the year in global markets - as that had forced a record-sized short covering of JPY futures, and simultaneously setting the top tick in the risk free rate of 10-year US Treasury yields to this day.
Weston then discusses a potential major risk catalyst this week - in which Governor Ueda will be making his first English-speaking public appearance for the international community since becoming Governor of the Bank of Japan in Sintra, Portugal, sharing a stage with Fed Chair Powell, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and ECB President and host Lagarde - accentuating the policy divergences that have re-emerged.
See Weston’s Twitter thread: JPY Price Action Explainer:
https://twitter.com/acrossthespread/status/1615053103811952640?s=20
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Following last week's series of rate cuts that were met with tepid market response, China delivers another -10 basis point rate cut to its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates before market open today in-line with its recent measures - only this time, markets pulled sharply back. Is this the start of a new market paradigm?
Weston Nakamura scrutinizes market price action out of China today in search of the answer. Weston also observes what broader major equity indices' recent price behavior looks like absent U.S. market participants upon a U.S. market holiday, and tests his recent themes and findings presented in prior episodes of the Market Depth podcast.
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Off the heels of the June 2023 FOMC's "hawkish pause," PBOC's "catch-up cuts," ECB's "hawkish hike," and BOJ's "dovish autopilot unchanged" policies, Weston Nakamura takes a look back at a historic week of globally synchronized fragmentation among major central banks.
In particular, Weston looks into the peculiar relationship forming between the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan, in which the ECB calls the BOJ policy normalization a major risk to global bond markets in its official financial stability report - a rare commentary made against a fellow major central bank peer.
Weston discusses how the Bank of Japan leaving their Yield Curve Control policy unchanged shows that Governor Ueda may indeed be trapped in the legacy framework, and that it's fellow major central banks who are implementing hawkish policies are are depending on the BOJ to remain in place as the world's final QE anchor.
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After months of wide-scale economic deterioration in China, the People's Bank of China and the central government are finally taking action with three waves of stimulus measures today. The PBOC first makes a surprise cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate before market open on Tuesday, followed by a Bloomberg report of a broad based stimulus package at the end of the trading day, and finally a late-evening announcement of cuts to three standing lending facility rates.
Yet, the overall market response was that of deafening silence. Weston Nakamura walks through each of the stimulus measures, as well as what the anemic market response means, and what to look for next.
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The US equity market's performance, particularly in outperforming tech stocks, is not what it seems. Weston Nakamura lays out his analysis and observations on how the Nasdaq 100 Index is being driven by Japan's Nikkei 225 index. Additionally, Weston explains how the ongoing issue of weak market breadth and narrow participation is also a byproduct of the immense foreign equity inflows into Japanese stocks.
This is a differentiated explanation from an angle of global flows into and out of US, Japan and European equity markets - and what to expect next.
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