Episodit
-
Tueday 2nd April 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
The US manufacturing ISM this morning was stronger than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if we are seeing more soft-landing evidence from the US, with the Core PCE deflator read on Friday showing prices are rising just 2.8% year on year, whilst spending is rising, and job claims fell last week? Rau suggests its more of a ‘no landing’ situation, if the data holds out. There was good news from China too over the weekend. It might be a short week, but it’s a busy one. Phil and Ray talk through what to expect.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Friday 22nd March 2024
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
Bronwyn Curtis OBE is an Australian economist living in the UK with an illustrious career in finance. She’s headed Currency and Fixed Income at Deutsche Bank, then later at HSBC, as well as working fo the World Bank in Latin America and Asia, and overseeing development of Bloomberg’s European broadcast operations.
Bronwyn joins Phil Dobbie to give her take on where monetary policy is right now and you’ll find some of her observations contradict the consensus. The Fed, for example, she thinks will move later and are unlikely to see through the three cuts markets are expecting. The ECB, meanwhile, have every reason to cut sooner. Longer term she thinks interest rates around 3 percent will be healthier for a growing economy.
Listen into a wide-ranging discussion covering Europe, the US, China and the influence of Trump.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Puuttuva jakso?
-
Thursday 28th March 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
A early Easter this year is creating the potential for extra volatility the last day or two of the quarter. Even though the Core PC deflator numbers are out at the end of the week, the markets are closed on Friday. That means markets finish the quarter still speculating on the direction inflation is taking. Adding to the volatility is the question about how much intervention we can expect from Japanese authorities as the Yen fell to its lowest level since 1990. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks through the days action and looks bac at yesterday’s Australian CPI, as well a s highlighting a new JBWere report looking at the shift in wealth to Australian women. We also look ahead to this afternoon’s Weekend Edition.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Wednesday 27th March 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
It’s been a session low on significant data and low on market moves. Bond markets have managed to absorb sizeable auctions however, and equities have bounced back as we approach month end and the US inflation data at the end of the week. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through those moves, some of the softer data out f the US and looks ahead to Australia’s CPI today, explaining why this release is more useful than the last. And breaking the glass? Hear comments from on member of the Bank of Canada who says they are facing an emergency when it comes to productivity.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Tuesday 26th March 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
The CNY climbed higher today, as the PBoC set a higher reference rate, reversing expectations that perhaps authorities were willing to see the currency drift a little lower. NAB’s Rodrigo Catrl talks through the moves, and the warning from one senior Japanese official that speculation driving down the Yen will not be tolerated. Meanwhile bond yields in the US and Europe push higher, ahead of inflation data later in the week. Data is light today, but we get consumer confidence data for Australia, Germany and the US (conference board). But as Rodrigo points out, how people feel and what they do are often very different things.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Monday 25th March 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
The CNY fell sharply on Friday after Chinese authorities set the daily reference rate weaker than expected. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the consequences and repercussions of an approach that might be less contained. Meanwhile markets are responding to the commentary form Central banks last week. How would you sum it up in one word, asks Phil? Later? No, quite the reverse says Taylor. Particularly in the UK. Although ‘later’ still applies to the RBA and perhaps, to the FOMC. It’s a quiet, short week, but a lot off the key data emanates from Australia, including CPI on Wednesday.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Friday 22nd March 2024
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
Foreign students are back and more than ever. Julie Hare, education editor at the AFR, says its more than just a rebound and catch-up from COVID. Something has shifted. So, what does that mean for the economy? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are economic consequences – good and bad. It has alleviated some of the tightness in the labour market, but its also added to inflation pressures. Phil asks, without it, how well would the economy be faring? Looking ahead the picture is complicated. On this week’s podcast we look at how international demand is not matched by the domestic appetite for higher education, despite the government’s aims to increase the numbers and diversity of students. Plus, how are educators coping with new regulations aimed at clamping down on those cheating the system to gain access to work in Australia?
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Friday 22nd March 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
Equity markets ushed higher, presumably on expectations of looming rate cuts by various central banks. NAB’s Gavin Friend in London says a move in August is still expected by the Bank of England, as the two hawks who voted for a rise last time fell in line in the latest meeting. In fact, one central bank did cut rates overnight. But what about the impacts of local data yesterday. Was the Australia unemployment number too low for the RBA, and the NZ GDP read too soft for the RBNZ?
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Thursday 21st March 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
Inflation has eased, but not enough yet says Jerome Powell, as the Fed keeps rates on hold, and Fed members point to a slightly higher long-term nominal rate. NAB’s Taylor Nugent dissects the announcement and the press conference, before looking ahead to the Bank of England. UK inflation yesterday was a little weaker than expected. But not enough to change the dial at the BoE. Services inflation remains persistently high. Also today, GDP for New Zealand and Australia’s employment numbers. So, what would the RBA like to see today?
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Wednesday 20th March 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
With the RBA and bank of Japan out of the way, markets are readying themselves for the FOMC tomorrow, with yields drifting a little lower today in anticipation. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the RBA has removed its tightening bias – now, nothing is ruled out or in. The next move is expected to be down, but the question that remains is when? The bank of Japan lifted themselves out of negative interest rates, as expected, but Ken says they did a good job of dampening any expectations of a rigorous tightening cycle. Tomorrow, the FOMC meets, with the focus on the dots plot – how many and what will be the endpoint?
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Tuesday 19th March 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
Two central banks meet today, but the outcomes seem predictable. The end of negative rates by the Bank of Japan seems to have been well signalled, and the RBA continues its restrictive policy settings. NAB’s Skye Masters says we continue to look to November as the first possible rate cut in Australia. Meanwhile bond yields in the UW continue to push higher, ahead of the FOMC meeting later in the week. Phil asks if 2-year yields could push as high as 5%. Elsewhere, positive data from China yesterday, the ZEW survey for Europe today and Canada’s inflation print.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Monday 18th March 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
This week we hear the interest rate decisions from the RBA, the Fed, the BOE, the Bank of Japan, Norge’s Bank and the Swiss National Bank. Will any of them move rates? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril looks at what to expect and when, including the growing possibility that we’ll see a lift in rates and an end to yield curve control by the BoJ. Generally, though, the tone seems to be higher for longer as many indicators are showing inflation is taking a while to get under control.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Friday 18th March 2024
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
A pandemic, water shortages, labour supply issues, the cost of finance, China’s slow recovery, climate change. It seems like the agricultural sector faces massive headwinds, but NAB’s Lea Jurkovic says there’s still an immense amount of optimism within the sector, with plenty of upside potential in Australia’s export markets. That optimism is shared by Lachlan Marshall, who runs the Yurunga Farms Partnership, a diary and cattle operation near Deniliquin. He joins Phil and Lea to talk about how he is using mechanisation and data to drive efficiencies, that enhance the productivity and long-term viability of his farm. “I’m scaling up to thrive rather than survive, he says on this week’s Weekend Edition.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Friday 15th March 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
Reality is starting to bite. Pesky inflation is taking longer to come down, even as other data is showing slower economic growth. NAB’s Ken Crompton says its only one day, but stronger producer prices and slower retail growth is your classic stagflation data print. It’s clearly too early to make that call, but markets are worried, with equities taking a hit and expectations falling further for a rate cut in June. Bond yields have oved markedly higher, although oil prices are rising as the IEA forecasts stronger demand this year, which hardly fits the stagflation argument. But clearly, whatever the outcome, it’s taking longer to get there!
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Wednesday 13th March 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
Another big auction overnight showed strong appetite from investors for long-dated US bonds. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the resilience in US data refuses to give up and the timeline for when the Fed will cut rates continues to get pushed back. Markets are not even fully pricing a cut in June now and there’s the question as to whether the Fed dot plot next week will drop to two cuts this year. Meanwhile, expectations are rising for a rate rise by the BoJ next week, as wage negotiations in Japan show many workers are seeing pay rises in excess of 5 percent. Gavin talks through the likely impacts on currency markets.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Wednesday 13th March 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
US inflation came in hotter than expected ion data out overnight, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it was only marginally above expectations, rounding just makes it seem worth. It’s not changing expectations for a June cut, he says. The NAB Business Survey provided more signs of why the RBA isn’t in any rush to cut rates, with a reacceleration in business conditions. We also discuss what was said by the RBA’s Sarah Hunter yesterday, the weakness in UK jobs and a Bloomberg story that has the BoJ on the cusp of lifting rates.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Tuesday 12th March 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
US CPI is out today. A core monthly read of 0.3 percent is expected. JBWere’s Sally Auld says that’s too high to meet the Fed’s target so we’ll need to see CPI down to 0.2 percent over successive months before they can be certain they are on track. Japan’s GDP growth was lower than expected, although the country is now officially out of recession, but only by the tiniest margin. Could the BoJ really be planning rate hikes in such an environment? Iron ore prices took a hit overnight, whilst gold and Bitcoin are at or near all time highs. There’s clearly a lot of uncertainty out there.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Monday 11th March 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
US payrolls data was initially a surprise on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was an initial algo-driven market response, before the human s stepped in on realising that substantial downward revisions in the previous two months meant jobs data was weaker than anticipated. Hence, expectations for a June cut haven’t really shifted. Canada’s employment data, which was higher, passed by with little fanfare. China’s inflation numbers were a surprise over the weekend, coming in at the highest month on month level in a year. Japan’s GDP read is expected to be revised higher today, but the biggest influence on the BoJ strategy will come later this week with the early results of spring wage negotiations.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Friday 18th March 2024
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
You would be right in assuming that equality for women is less prevalent in Japan than it is in Australia. There are 200 listed companies on the Nikkei who don’t have a single female board member. But things are changing. Melanie Brock is an Australian who has lived in Tokyo for 25 years, helping businesses invest and partner in Japan. She serves on four boards, having just been appointed to Asahi Group Holdings. Today she talks through the challenges women face, but also why the economy depends on the career advancement of women. And there’s at least one lesson Australian businesses can learn from Japan about how to advance diversity in the workforce.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-
Friday 8tth March 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
NAB’s Gavin Friend says you only need to look at the falls we’ve been experiencing in yields lately to recognise that there’s a renewed acceptance that rates will be cut, probably by the middle of the year, in the US and Europe. At the ECB meeting Christine Lagarde talked about good progress being made on bringing down inflation, as they released a downgraded inflation forecast. In front of the sente Banking Committee in the US Jerome Powell talked about not being far from having the confidence to cut rates. That’s why all eyes are back on June. Of course, a surprise result in non-farm payrolls tonight could easily change all that.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
- Näytä enemmän