Episodes
-
After a 13-year career at CSFB where she would ultimately head the firm’s equity derivative strategy effort, in 2023 Mandy Xu moved to the CBOE where she’s now Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence and swimming in interesting, complex data sets. Our conversation surveys product innovation, going back to the first option trade ever on the CBOE, call options on July 1973 Xerox, through today’s vastly electronified ecosystem of trading in cross-asset risk exposures.
We briefly review the unbelievable short squeeze in GME from 2021, and here Mandy asserts that today’s exposures are considerably more balanced than the Meme episode in which the retail stampede engorged on call option premium. Our discussion moves to the present-day backdrop for option pricing and the potential impact of mechanical flows resulting from vol being bought and sold in the market.
Noting the substantial increase in AuM for overwriting and option income generating funds in both the mutual fund and ETF complex, Mandy is skeptical that this growth is solely responsible for the low clearing price of measures like the VIX and put skew. Instead, she points to low risk readings in other asset classes, including credit implied vol, as more likely driven by stable macro fundamentals.
We spend the remainder of the conversation on the much debated topic of ODTE and whether there’s an accident waiting to happen. In Mandy’s role at the CBOE, she sees option flow data with great granularity and in the ultra-short-dated category, she sees considerable balance in use cases across hedgers, income generators and intraday traders. The result is a healthy mix of buyers and sellers and, at least for now, a low risk of Volmaggedon 2.0.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Mandy Xu.
-
Kieran Goodwin’s roots go back to the early days of both distressed debt investing and the credit default swap market, two classes of risk he has seen experience significant change over the last 25 years. Our conversation gets underway by exploring the notion of alpha decay in the distressed market, a diminishing opportunity set that has resulted from smarter capital entering the space, equipped with an understanding of the often complicated process around bankruptcy and reorganization. Kieran frames out the option characteristics of distressed investing in an interesting way, suggesting that the short or long profile of the exposure is about whether time is on your side or not while also arguing that it is arming yourself with a margin of safety in price that creates this runway, leaving the trade with more long vol attributes.
Distressed investing today, in Kieran’s view, is an adult swim only business, rife with creditor-on-creditor violence and requiring a large balance sheet to be in the room as indentures are changed or portions of a capital structure are being primed. We spend the remaining part of the discussion on the CLO business and the potential for a credit-widening cycle. Kieran describes the CLO machinery as a captive buyer base for loans that has served effectively as a quasi-index product that has facilitated market growth. While noting that the product has indeed been effective over the years, he points to concentration risk that can lead to a rapid rise in correlations and spreads. He also points to at least some early signs of an uptick in defaults.
Lastly, we touch on the electronification of credit trading and the factorization of credit exposure that technology has increasingly enabled. Involved as an investor in some of the initiatives to facilitate electronic trading, Kieran sees further growth here, accompanied by more continuous trading and price discovery.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Kieran Goodwin. -
Episodes manquant?
-
In Lori Calvasina's role as Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, assessing the interaction between macro variables like rates with top-down factors like the equity market multiple is critical. But important as well is an evaluation of markets from the bottoms up. And here, she not only seeks to pull together the views of colleagues doing strategy work in sector verticals, but also to actually read earning transcripts during reporting season to get a sense of what companies are saying. Her broad assessment of the outlook for corporate America is generally optimistic as she sees companies having come out of multiple stress exercises - trade wars, the Covid shock, and the inflation and monetary policy response in the Pandemic's aftermath among them - with a stronger defensive plan. Companies are harnessing technology and managing costs more effectively, leaving them less likely to be forced to reduce headcount. The result is a consumer holding up quite well.
Our discussion touches on the Mag7 and how today's top-heavy portion of the market is similar and different to the highfliers of the tech bubble. For Lori, the valuation premium for names like NVDA and other mega cap tech stocks is justified by the premium of earnings growth they've been able to consistently deliver. We explore the impact of higher rates on the market's multiple and the relative performance of sectors as rates rise or fall. She likes energy, both for its high dividend yield, its strong relative performance as rates rise and the potential for a geopolitical tailwind. On this last front, asked about the market risks that she worries about, it is uncertainty on the global political front along with the US election. She also cites sentiment that may be too bullish and positioning that appears stretched. Lastly, we touch on Lori's recent recognition as one of Barron's Top 100 Most Influential Women in US Finance. Asked about industry efforts to empower female careers in finance, she's optimistic, arguing that it's critical to have not just a mentor but a sponsor as well to push you to the next level.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Lori Calvasina. -
George Orwell once said that writing a book is a “horrible, exhausting experience…that one would never undertake if one were not driven by some demon whom one can neither resist nor understand”. Ok then. Let’s all agree that writing a book is a heavy lift. Let’s also agree that the personal finance advice industry is littered with gurus making outlandish statements about profit opportunities and often giving unsound advice on wealth management.
With these in mind, it was a pleasure to welcome Jared Dillan back to the Alpha Exchange. Jared is the Founder and Editor of the Daily Dirtnap and the author of a recent book, “No Worries: How to Live a Stress-free Financial Life”. While many of the podcast discussions are in the weeds on high finance topics like monetary policy, hedging and correlation, my conversation with Jared emphasizes the basics: how to get the big decisions right and, in the process, enjoy more peace of mind. The foundations of our discussion are debt and risk, the two main sources of financial stress, in Jared’s view. On the debt side, he emphasizes three critical transactions, the house, the car and student loans.
On the risk side, he advocates for the “awesome” portfolio, a blend of stocks, bonds, gold, real estate and cash. While not returning what stocks have historically, this combination has considerably smaller realized drawdowns. Overall, Jared’s book is easy to consume with plenty of nuggets accessible to the non-Wall Street types.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Jared Dillian. -
Our final segment of 25 Sayings on Vol and Risk is upon us, and with it, 5 fresh pithy principles that I often turn to in trying to make sense of this chaotic sport we call markets. Along the way, in typing out these more than 20,000 words over the series, I’m probably out more than 50 dollars in espresso inspired drinks from Starbucks lead by the dirty chai latte and the caramel machiatto. But I’ve learned some stuff and had some fun and I hope you have as well.
“When I see a bubble forming, I rush in to buy.” (George Soros)
Sayings 21 through 25 are…
“Vol is the only anti-fragile asset.”
“When financial markets implode, convexity can be found lurking at the scene.” (Harley Bassman)
“The correlation of vol and the vol of correlation are not your friend.”
“Vol has memory, vol mean reverts.”
Hope you Enjoy!
-
The task at hand is simple….make further progress on our 25 Sayings on Vol and Risk. I’ve certainly had some fun with the first 15. Somehow, in the context of this exploration of market risk philosophy, I’ve managed to quote both former President Ronald Reagan and Seinfeld hack comedian Kenny Bannia, summoned the wisdom of Wolf of Wall Street’s Mark Hannah and referenced both Morgan Stanley’s James Gorman and Optionseller.com’s James Cormier. My promise remains to get you in and out in under 30 minutes, less time than an episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm.
“The money money makes, makes more money.” (Ben Franklin)
Sayings 16 through 20 are…
“ROMO is the risk of missing out.”
“Risk-on and risk-off are curious cousins.”
“Accident-free finance promotes the selling of accident insurance.”
“Price is the only fundamental.” (Someone) -
Our journey to 25 Sayings on Vol and Risk continues, folks…and as UFC’s Bruce Buffer is known to emphatically tells us…”It’s TIME!”… for our third segment…sayings 11-15. We’ve got some good ones ahead of us and, as always, I aim to share some of my thinking on markets, overlay a dose of history and pop culture and, perhaps, give you a chuckle in the process. We’ll be in and out in under 30 minutes, i.e., shorter than a Powell presser, a five-block cab ride from the east side to west side, and no doubt less time it takes Windows to update the drivers on your PC.
Sayings 11 through 15 are…
1. “If history is a foreign country, the history of risk is another planet.”
2. “By definition, there’s a winner to every back-test.”
3. “Price is a liar.”
4. “Volatility is an instrument of truth.”
5. “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you in trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
-
Hello! You’ve reached part 2 of our 5 part series “25 Sayings on Vol and Risk”. Over the first half hour episode, we kicked off with the first 5. Over these 30 minutes, we shall explore sayings 6 through 10. The task at hand is to make headway on our sayings, and, hopefully, entertain you a bit in the process. My goal, share some of what I’ve written down on the back of napkins over the years to help me tie together what I’ve observed and experienced in markets. Through these aphorisms as one might call them, I’m hoping to give you some stuff to chew on and expand your thinking on matters of risk.
“The next crisis to occur is the one that happened longest ago”
Here are our second five:
“There are no bad securities, only bad correlations”
“Equities are short the straddle on rates”
“In markets, it’s move fast and things break”
“Greenspan was right, sort of” -
Efforts to understand the “why” of the motion in asset prices consume our time and attention in markets. To be sure, traditional sources of risk – namely the economy, the path of corporate profits and changes in the interest rate cycle – do matter. But, as Matt King argues, especially since 2012, we increasingly need to monitor what’s happening in the financial plumbing where Treasury and Central Bank driven fund flows can be responsible for powerful liquidity dynamics.
Serving sometimes as a headwind and at others a tailwind, flows like QE as well as changes in the TGA and Reverse Repo facilities influence the manner in which investors interact with risk assets. After a nearly two decade stint at Citi, Matt recently founded Satori Insights, an independent firm helping institutional investors navigate today’s uneven and complicated waters of risk. A main aspect of our conversation is his take on the resilience of the US consumer and broader economy in 2023, set against one of the fastest tightening cycles on record and the Fed’s QT program. Matt’s work suggests that tying favorable asset price results in 2023 to this resilience leaves out a critical point.
He states that while the Fed’s balance sheet was nominally reduced by roughly a trillion last year, markets wound up enjoying a trillion in new liquidity. His framework, tying a trillion dollar increase in reserves to roughly a 10% increase in the equity market, helps explain the dislocation between asset price performance like tighter credit spreads and traditional fundamentals like defaults. Through the lens of liquidity that Matt utilizes, the risk asset outlook for 2024 is less favorable. He cautions that the Fed may have done more on the hiking front than they should have, underestimated the impact of their balance sheet policies on asset prices.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Matt King.
-
I wanted to share with you some of my thoughts about the current state of market risk as this new year is now sufficiently underway. A number of years ago, I created a list that I call “25 Sayings on Vol and Risk”. In the spirt of 7 minute abs and 12 holiday recipes, I think lists are an easy way to connect concepts. Twenty five is a lot to get through, so we are going to simply divide them into 5, creating a series of half hour episodes. I do hope I can keep your attention and, again, make a positive contribution to how you think about markets over 30 minutes.
Here are our first five:
“Big Moves Matter Most”“Theta is the Rent on Gamma, and the Rent is Often Too Damn High”“Hedge When You Can, Not When You Have To”“Stock Returns, Like Politics, Are Not Normal”“Financial Market Insurance is Not Like Hurricane Insurance”Hope you Enjoy!
-
Danny Dayan has spent more than 2 decades in markets, developing a top-down process that seeks to find opportunity in derivatives markets. In his search for value in option trades, he marries a study of the macro landscape – including the economic backdrop, the evolution of inflation and the Central Bank reaction function to incoming data – with expertise in understanding how to implement and risk manage a derivatives portfolio. With experience across the major asset classes, but a long history in rate derivatives markets, Danny shares his perspective on the fascinating world of pricing in the US Government bond market and the giant options complex built around it.
We start by reviewing the launch of the hedge fund he founded, DWD Partners, in late 2020, a time of epically low rates and skinny option prices. We walk through key developments, including the expiration of the Fed SLR in 2021 that ultimately played a role in the implosion of SVB and an explosion of the MOVE index, which nearly reached 200 in March of 2023. We spend the bulk of the discussion on how Danny sizes up present-day prices and risks. Here, he sees the market priced for substantially more cuts than will materialize. In this context he outlines options trade to do in short-dated rates that both generate and require option premium. We talk as well about the back-end of the yield curve and the explosion of government debt. Here, he argues that the term premium for taking duration risk is insufficient. Lastly, he advocates for FX option trades, highlighting the potential that both the Euro and Canadian dollar decline as their respective Central Banks ease policy at a faster rate than currently anticipated relative to the Fed.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Danny Dayan.
-
It was once said that we are “the sum total of our experiences”. In the world of investing, this rings especially true. For Nancy Tengler, the CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments, a career in money management that has spanned more than 3 decades has presented real world challenges and opportunities that have reinforced a philosophy on risk. First, she shares that her interest in money came from not having any of it, pushing her to first focus on savings and then on investing that savings.
She’s also come to believe that the biggest risk is not taking enough of it, a notion is a thread throughout our discussion. This idea dates all the way back to the crash of ’87, a harrowing episode during which Nancy was forced to look past the shocking volatility and argue that clients should put fresh money to work as part of a longer-horizon plan.
We talk about the stratospheric valuations of tech stocks in the late 1990’s and she contrasts that period with today’s the more reasonably valued market leadership. In the present, she sees a secular tailwind coming from developments in cloud computing and in generative AI that will benefit not just the tech companies that create these innovations, but the older economy stocks like Walmart that deploy them as productivity enhancement tools. Next, we discuss the balance between the macro and the micro within her process. While being highly macro aware and concerned about top-down factors like US government debt, Nancy’s process emphasizes a study of business fundamentals along with a strong focus on evaluating the strength of management teams. Lastly, we talk about the women in finance movement and the work that Nancy is doing to promote financial literacy for females, including her book, “The Women’s Guide to Successful Investing”.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Nancy Tengler.
-
Welcome back, as we review some of the themes and insights that have been prominent over the first 5 years of the podcast. In Part II, we discuss inflation, stock-bond correlation as well as trend strategies. We finish with a not so optimistic take on the growth of US government debt and the strains emerging on the risk-bearing capacity of the Treasury market. The late Doris Day once said that “gratitude is riches”. I am full of gratitude for having the opportunity to host the Alpha Exchange. I sincerely thank both our guests and listeners for the ongoing support. 2023 has been a year of significant growth for the podcast and I hope that 2024 will bring more of the same. Wishing you an excellent end to this year and a relaxing holiday.
-
Welcome to Part I of a special, retrospective podcast, looking back on 5 years of the Alpha Exchange. It’s been a joy hosting these conversations with experts. I’ve had an opportunity to solicit their insights and bring to life the lens through which they evaluate risk and reward. In Part I, I highlight some of what guests have shared with respect to how risks materialize, with attention to the exposures that sometimes are forcibly unwound when assumptions about the state of the world change. We also touch on geopolitical risks, those that originate from elections, wars and even Tweets. I hope these perspectives shared deepen your own thought process on risk management.
-
Tony Morris, Global Head of Quantitative Strategies at Nomura International, has spent 25 plus years studying complex market pricing relationships across asset classes, with a focus on derivatives. Our conversation explores some of the factors that drive asset price outcomes, first, considering the vol risk premium. Observing the consistent shortfall of realized versus implied vol in the equity market, Tony details a similar circumstance in credit where realized defaults are lower than implied by spreads. He suggests that the existence of both the equity VRP and the credit risk premium are tied to fact that both have beta to the SPX, which in turn enjoys its own risk premium.
Our conversation shifts to the work that Tony and his team are doing within the larger Quantitative Investment Strategies, or QIS, business at Nomura. We touch briefly on the history of QIS, a business motivated by end user interest in systematic strategies that require substantial market access, modelling and operational infrastructure. At its core, QIS enables the outsourcing of these critical components to a dealer who can package complex exposures into a neatly delivered contract.
We talk broadly about the set of products that comprise the taxonomy of QIS. Here, Tony cautions that in constructing a portfolio, it’s important to carefully consider the way in which strategies interact, with attention to hidden co-movement. We spend the last part of our discussion on long-dated swaption straddles on long dated US rates, a topic Tony and team have done a deep dive on. Their work suggests that an overlay of 20y20y – that is 20 year swaptions on 20 year swaps – has very favorable correlation, carry and convexity characteristics. Along the way in sharing the results, Tony debunks a few commonly held assertions around the factors driving the returns.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Tony Morris.
-
Welcome to a special Alpha Exchange Retrospective podcast in which I highlight discussions with female guests and their reflections on efforts to empower careers for women in the field of finance. I launched the Alpha Exchange back in 2018 to host conversations with prominent investors, strategists and policymakers that explored the world of market risk. Over the course of these last 5, most interesting years, I’ve been fortunate to engage with 135 individuals, soliciting their perspectives, uncovering their frameworks and asking them to detail the lens through which they evaluate the trade-off between risk and opportunity. Among my guests, 22 have been women. I’m pleased to say that 2023 is already a record year for female guests at 9. These guests are chief investment officers, heads of derivative strategy, hedge fund founders, heads of asset allocation and macro credit research. Female guests of the podcast are, almost always, mothers as well.
I enjoyed putting this together, hoping to highlight what leading women in our industry think about efforts to expand opportunities for females in the investment industry. -
Game 5 of the 1973 NBA finals would be the last one played by Wilt Chamberlain, as the Lakers lost to a NY Knick team that featured basketball legends Walt Clyde Frazier, Earl the Pearl Monroe and Willis Reed. A fourth hall of famer, Dave DeBusschere, donning the number 22, also played an instrumental role in what was the last championship for the Knicks. 50 years later, his son, Dennis DeBusschere, is a co-founder and the Chief Market Strategist at 22V Research, a firm advising institutional clients on risk and asset allocation.
My conversation with Dennis explores his process for uncovering the interaction between the economy, inflation and the Fed’s reaction function. He emphasizes the importance of the financial conditions channel, asserting that economic growth that proves too resilient will force the market to ultimately confront policy that is higher for longer. A large part of our conversation is around the linkages that Dennis and his team find in various equity factors to macro variables like the shape of the yield curve. Of these, one interesting assertion is that defensive stocks and factors like low vol have provided little safety in the context of bear steepening. Lastly, we talk about hedging in an environment of stock/bond correlation levels that remain unfriendly. Here he points to a customized short basket he’s developed comprised of stocks with deteriorating short-term debt levels and high cash flow volatility.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Dennis DeBusschere. -
Over a distinguished 40-year career as an academician in finance, Darrell Duffie has made important contributions to our collective understanding of how markets work. Earning a PhD from Stanford in 1984, Darrell has taught finance there ever since and now serves as the Adams Distinguished Professor of Management and Professor of Finance at the Graduate School of Business. Along the way he has written several books, authored countless papers and provided guidance to policymakers who have sought his counsel in addressing complex regulatory questions.
We review some of Darrell’s research over the past 4 decades, starting with equilibrium models of asset pricing in the 80’s, termstructure models in the 90’s and work on default correlation post the GFC. We spend most of our time on his recent research on the US Treasury market, that risk-free asset class that recently appears anything but. Darrell shares some conclusions from analysis of the melt-down of the bond market in March of 2020 and the policy implications that result. First, he states that yield volatility explains a large proportion of the breakdown of liquidity in what should be the world’s most liquid asset class. Higher vol and compromised liquidity generally go hand in hand. Darrell and colleagues show that the bond market freeze could further be traced to dealers reaching their capacity to warehouse risk, a factor that impacts liquidity in a highly non-linear manner.
We shift to the policy recommendations that arise in light of his research. First, Darrell notes that a campaign of large-scale asset purchases is considerably more effective in combatting a volatility episode when dealer balance sheets are stretched as they were in March of 2020 than the market turbulence of 2022, when dealers had space to absorb more risk. He also points to a greater need for centralized clearing in the Treasury market, a mechanism that would provide much needed netting of risk exposures. Lastly, Darrell shares some new research he is engaged in, specifically, exploring the 2024 Treasury program to buy-back securities.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Darrell Duffie. -
As head of Macro Credit Research within Private Markets at BlackRock, Amanda Lynam is responsible for assessing how the broad picture of risk impacts credit markets and the securities within them. In doing so, she marries the top down with an understanding of company fundamentals, a skillset developed during her time in a sell-side research role focused on the insurance and healthcare sectors. Our discussion takes stock of the current opportunity set in corporate credit, exploring Amanda's process for finding value amidst an environment of middling credit spreads, but high all-in yields. As most of the heavy lifting is currently being done by the risk-free component, her team sees this continuing, with a view that the bar is high for Fed rate cuts well into 2024.
Expecting a higher cost of capital to prevail for some time, Amanda expects more dispersion of returns across issuers in credit, with a view that certain capital structures that added considerable leverage when rates were low will struggle as they ultimately need to refinance. She notes that to some extent, higher rates are already biting, with defaults picking up and with the maturity wall beginning in earnest in 2025, corporates will need to engage markets on rolling paper in the not-too-distant future.
Next, we talk about the supply and demand for funds in credit markets. First, on the demand for capital side, she states that 2022 was the lowest issuance year in high yield since the GFC, a favorable technical backdrop that is fading as a tailwind this year and next. With respect to the supply of credit, a topic that has received more attention post the SVB debacle, Amanda shares her team's focus on opportunities in private credit, a market she sees as expanding amidst the contraction in bank lending and offering higher spread compensation.
We finish the discussion with some of Amanda's views on the progress of empowering careers for women in finance. She says it is important for females to have both a mentor who helps you in the day to day and a sponsor who can help you advance on a longer-term basis. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Amanda Lynam. -
As Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, a global alternatives platform, Anastasia Amoroso is responsible for helping the firm’s clients understand changes in the macro regime and how capital should be allocated in response. We start our discussion by considering the current state of affairs – of high interest rates, of correlated moves in stock and bond prices and resilient economic growth – and exploring where history is and is not relevant.
Here, Anastasia highlights the degree to which both consumers and corporations are far less sensitive to interest rate increases than they were in the pre-GFC era. Higher rates are a concern, but they need not derail the case for risk assets like stocks which have delivered good returns amidst higher rates in the past. For Anastasia, an instructive framework for evaluating opportunity is one that considers valuation, positioning and a catalyst. And in the context of this last factor, she notes favorable earnings revisions which are showing signs of recently bottoming and strong earnings growth, specifically in the tech sector. We spend the bulk of our time on the important topic of diversification and the faltering performance of the traditional 60/40 portfolio. She highlights exposure to global macro hedge funds, a strategy that delivered a 9% return in 2022 as both the stock and bond market lost nearly 20%.
We finish the conversation by having Anastasia reflect on the state of female careers in financial services. She states that the industry has become more inclusive and more representative of women in leadership roles. With this progress noted, she sees a gap in women serving in the middle, between junior and senior roles, potentially the result of the unique demands on females that often include family responsibilities. Ongoing attention to office/life balance and creating a degree of flexibility in work is likely one part of the remedy here.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Anastasia Amoroso. - Montre plus
