Episodi
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Jack is joined by George Goncalves, Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities Americas Inc, and Joseph Wang, publisher at FedGuy.com and former senior trader for the New York Fed, to probe the challenges the Federal Reserve faces at its December meeting and the new year. Recorded on November 25, 2024.
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Joseph’s website: https://fedguy.com/
Joseph’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Central-Banking-101-Joseph-Wang/dp/0999136747
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Ask anyone and they will tell you it has never been harder to start a hedge fund. That’s why so many of the most successful launches of late have been funds emerging from a prior firm with the backing of the big boss, otherwise known as spinouts. Julian Robertson’s Tiger Cubs are the perhaps most famous spinouts, but it is still an extremely popular trend today. Farid Guindo, CIO and founder of Drill Capital Management is taking advantage of these dynamics to launch his new fund with the backing of his mentor and former boss at Bornite Capital, Dan Dreyfus. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Guindo discusses the ins and outs of fund spinouts, the importance of transparency and relationship building with bosses and mentors, and how his experience working at Tiger Cubs and other spinouts solidified his belief that this was the right path for Drill Capital after deciding it was best to be a separate vehicle outside of the Bornite umbrella.
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Dr. Elham Saeidinezhad, Term Assistant Professor of Economics at Barnard College, Columbia University, and Market Structure Fellow, Jain Family Institute, joins Jack to share her upcoming papers on banks as synthetic hedge funds and interest rate swaps as synthetic funding. Recorded on November 23, 2024.
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Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins Jack to share his views on why the stock market isn’t overvalued and why he is recommending to clients an underweight commodities stance. Pies argues that small-caps and mid-caps aren’t destined to do great if the bull market continues. Recorded on November 19, 2024.
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Dan Rasmussen has built his firm Verdad Capital into a billion-dollar asset manager on the back of one core activity, producing high quality research. Since Verdad’s inception in 2014, they have produced almost 500 pieces of research that they publish on their website weekly and distribute both on Twitter and to their large email list of readers. This research serves two functions. It’s both the backbone of the strategies employed at this highly quantitative firm, and a point of connection with existing and potential investors. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Rasmussen discusses how he’s used research to showcase his authentic self and build an audience that provides enumerable benefits. They also discuss the compliance process for publishing research, how he has built out his team and Verdad’s internship program, and why he takes a more SaaS approach to product market fit.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
03:43 The Value of Research and Verdad’s First Big Thesis
10:27 The SaaS Approach Product Market Fit
20:26 Investing in Human Capital
24:21 The Research and Publishing Process
28:41 Research as Brand Building
33:06 Compliance and Misconceptions About Public Statements
41:35 Authenticity and Investor Archetypes
46:07 Making Mistakes
49:45 Being Early on PE -
James Davolos, portfolio manager for Horizon Kinetics, joins Jack to share his investment philosophy for investing in companies with strong pricing power that benefit from inflationary environments. Recorded on November 14, 2024.
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Veteran trader Jason Shapiro joins Jack to share how he perceives positioning across FX, Equities, commodities, and bonds. He thinks the crowded long dollar trade has created a set-up for the Euro to rally, and he estimates that traders are a bit too short of oil and natural gas. Equities is in the “too hard” column so he is neutral, however he sees some short-term risks. Recorded on November 12, 2024.
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Hedge fund strategies like distressed, long short equities, relative value, etc. are well defined and understood by allocators. As a result, funds that fit neatly into these style boxes can easily answer the question, “what type of fund are you?” But what if you don’t fit neatly into one of these boxes? Be too exact and no one will search for your niche strategy. Push the envelope to fit into one of these boxes and suddenly investors feel like they’ve been tricked into a meeting. This is a problem that Louis Camhi, founder and CIO of RLH Capital, has had to deal with since launching his SPAC focused strategy in 2021. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Camhi discusses why educating investors about SPACs and defining his fund for style box focused investors has been harder than finding interesting SPAC trades. They also touch on outsourcing back and middle office, the little things you don’t think about when you are working for a larger fund, and the tradeoffs between SMAs and pooled vehicles.
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Citrini, the thematic cross-asset investor known for his prescient and profitable calls on AI and GLP-1s, joins Monetary Matters to review with Jack his “Trump basket” which since its inception in March 4, 2024 to November 8, 2024 is up 87% (his Trump market neutral basket is up 32% over the same time horizon). Citrini explains why he created the basket and how its performance tracked and often predicted Trump’s odds of winning in the betting markets. Upon Trump’s victory, he tells Jack which parts of the basket he thinks are overheated and which have room to run. Citrini also shares his views on AI, the broad stock and bond markets, and the airline industry. Recorded on November 8, 2024.
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The Federal Reserve continued its course of interest rate cuts in the first FOMC
meeting following the election of Donald Trump and a defiant Chairman Powell strongly
rejected any notion that Trump’s presidency could affect the independence of the
Federal Reserve. Here, Jack Farley and Max Wiethe discuss the Fed’s move in light of
recent data, the stock market’s run both before and after Trump’s election, and their
outlooks for stocks and the economy moving forward. Recorded on November 7th , 2024.
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Harris Kupperman, CIO and Founder of Praetorian Capital joins Max Wiethe to share how he’s grown his firm to over $300 million in AUM, largely by breaking the institutional mold. They discuss Kupperman’s choice to build a strategy with UHNW investors and family offices in mind rather than traditional institutional investors and the benefits of a diversified base of LPs. They also discuss the firm’s blog Kuppy’s Korner, the importance of authenticity in brand building, and his choice to register the fund as a 506(c).
Clarification: At 50:48 Harris mentions that almost half the capital in the fund is from gains. As of September 30th, 2024 44% of the fund's capital is from gains.
Sign up for Kuppy’s Korner at: https://pracap.com
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Email [email protected] to inquire about Henley & Partners, and Jack will connect you with Basil.
Basil Mohr-Elzeki, Managing Director and Head of Americas for Henley & Partners, joins Jack on Monetary Matters to explain why more millionaires than ever are going to relocate countries in 2024. He delves into the causes of this phenomenon, the nuances of citizenship and residency investment, and the role that taxes, geographic diversification and other factors play in driving the migration of the world’s high-net-worth individuals.
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Jeff Snider of Eurodollar University joins Jack to explore whether the inverted yield curve signal has been proven wrong, and just how strong or weak the U.S. economy is. Recorded on October 28, 2024.
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Building a successful hedge fund is hard. It’s even harder when you’re fighting the perpetual upward momentum of the market. Despite this headwind, Carson Block, CIO and Founder of Muddy Waters Capital, has made his firm into a successful fund management business and taken down billion-dollar frauds in the process. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Block explains why starting a fund became necessary to pursue activist short selling in a serious capacity, the pitfalls of capital raising and the different types of investors who are interested in specialized strategies like theirs, and how he is expanding his business with new strategies beyond activist short selling. Recorded on October 21st, 2024.
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David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to argue why a recession is likely to occur as soon as 2025. Rosenberg points to the low savings rate and argues that fiscal deficits and a stock market price bubble are boosting consumer spending and that this will reverse if the stock market stops going up. Recorded on October 25, 2024.
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Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors & Institutional Risk Analyst joins Jack Farley to explain why bank stocks are partying like it’s 1997 again. Recorded on October 21, 2024.
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Chris Whalen’s latest book, “Seeing Around Corners,” https://www.freedommortgage.com/seeingaroundcorners
Lev Menand & Joshua Younger paper that Chris references: https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/faculty_scholarship/4093/
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Investing legend Jim Rogers joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to share timeless investing lessons. Rogers warns that people who blindly follow financial pundits without doing their own analysis are likely doomed to underperform, and he explains why he is a long-term bull on Chinese shares. Rogers argues that the unprecedented sovereign debt levels in the U.S. will reignite inflation, and explains why he continues to view silver as an effective inflation hedge. Recorded on October 17, 2024.
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Beeland Interests https://www.beelandinterests.com/
Jim Rogers’ website https://www.jimrogers.com/
Jim Rogers’ Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers -
Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Bianco Advisors joins Monetary Matters to share his views on inflation, the labor market, and bonds. Bianco argues that the reason the unemployment rate has gone up is because the large amount of immigration into the U.S. has increased the labor force. Bianco makes the case that inflation is headed higher and bond yields now are probably headed higher. Recorded on October 14, 2024.
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Jared Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtnap and of “Night Moves: And other stories” joins Monetary Matters to discuss his thoughts behind a recent piece he wrote called “The Next Big Short: Hidden Risks Behind Private Equity's $8 Trillion Market.” Jared explains why he has shorted private equity companies and why he thinks private equity has peaked as an asset class and is destined for underperformance over the next decade. Recorded on October 11, 2024.
Jared’s piece, ““The Next Big Short: Hidden Risks Behind Private Equity's $8 Trillion Market”: https://m.jareddillianmoney.com/private-equity-next-big-short
Jared’s Short Private Equity website: https://www.shortprivateequity.com/
Jared’s latest book, “Night Moves: And other stories”: https://www.amazon.com/Night-Moves-stories-Jared-Dillian/dp/B0DFBJS741
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SPECIAL “ASK ME ANYTHING” PROMOTION: Leave a rating and review for Monetary Matters on Apple podcast and ask Jack any question you want. Jack will answer some of the questions in future episodes. You can write the question in the body of the review, or you can send your question to to [email protected] alongside a screenshot of your review.
Brian McCarthy of Macrolens LLC joins Jack Farley to argue that the tremendous Chinese stock market rally of the past three weeks is fueled by misunderstanding of Chinese economic policy. McCarthy argues that the fiscal stimulus from the Chinese government will be 1 - 2 Trillion Yuan, or ~300 Billion USD, which McCarthy estimates is nowhere near close enough to stimulate the flailing Chinese economy. Recorded the afternoon of October 8, 2024.
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