Episodi
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Episode Notes
Chernobyl Tissue Bank
Website
https://www.chernobyltissuebank.com/index.htm
Funding bodies
https://www.chernobyltissuebank.com/funding.htm
The Oxford Martin Restatements
https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/restatements/
Radiation Poisoning Fatalities
Alexander Litvinyenko – Polonium 210 poisoning
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Litvinenko
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/58088
Radiation Types
https://www.compoundchem.com/2015/09/10/radiation/
Aberfan Disaster
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberfan_disaster
Flixborough Chemical Plant Explosion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flixborough_disaster
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WevjRH5fX98&ab_channel=DieselDave – Great BBC video from the time showing the destruction and talking to the people involved (4 minutes long). The plant was producing fertilizer and Nylon.
Rupert Wingfield-Hayes - Twitter
https://twitter.com/wingcommander1?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35761136 - Article with Prof. Gerry Thomas
Salisbury Poisoning of Russian Double Agent - Novichok
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Sergei_and_Yulia_Skripal
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok_agent
Acute Radiation Sickness
https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/emergencies/arsphysicianfactsheet.htm#:~:text=Acute%20Radiation%20Syndrome%20(ARS)%20(,usually%20a%20matter%20of%20minutes)
Aleksandr ‘Sasha’ Yuvchenko – Died in 2008 of a heart attack
https://www.reddit.com/r/ChernobylTV/comments/bx0yuo/cheating_chernobyl_interview_with_surviving_plant/
Cancer Rates for men and women
https://www.cancer.org/cancer/cancer-basics/lifetime-probability-of-developing-or-dying-from-cancer.html
https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/risk/lifetime-risk#heading-Zero
Episode 2 ReferencesMentioned people:
Dr. James Hansen
https://twitter.com/drjamesehansen
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/19/james-hansen-nasa-scientist-climate-change-warning
George Monbiot
https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/26/toxic-sofa-eu-red-tape-flame-retardants
Michael Schellenburger
https://twitter.com/shellenbergermd
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2020/04/21/new-michael-moore-backed-documentary-on-youtube-reveals-massive-ecological-impacts-of-renewables/#390355d46c96
Chernobyl References:
History of the Chernobyl Disaster - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster#Human
RBMK Reactors do not have containment domes - https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/chernobyl/faqs
The Chernobyl reactor type was used to create Weapons Grade Plutonium - http://nuclearconnect.org/chernobyl-in-brief
Chernobyl Birth Defects and Malformations - http://www.ibis-birthdefects.org/start/cache/Congenital%20Malformations%20Stillborn.pdf
Effects of Chernobyl on Health - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_Chernobyl_disaster#cite_note-125
Fukushima References:
History of the Fukushima Disaster –
https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx
https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster#Plant_description
Scale of Nuclear Disasters – 0-7; 7 being the highest, Fukushima got 7 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale
Fukushima Radiation Map explained and fact checked – Shows waves not radiation - https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fukushima-emergency/
Radiation spread in the oceans of the Fukushima Disaster - http://www.ourradioactiveocean.org/results.html
Fukushima Evacuation and Deaths:
Death toll of the Fukushima evacuation (Also see the video by Prof. ‘Gerry’ Thomas, above) – https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx
Additional information on personal cases of evacuation stress and death - https://www.ft.com/content/000f864e-22ba-11e8-add1-0e8958b189ea
Shutting down Nuclear Power Plants after Fukushima and evacuation (Unsourced) - https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/11/07/was-shutting-japans-reactors-deadlier-than-the-fukushima-disaster
NPR on the evacuation and lingering problems in Fukushima - https://www.npr.org/transcripts/148227596?storyId=148227596&t=1586599535859?storyId=148227596&t=1586599535859
Wikipedia on the Fukushima disaster casualties (Sourced) – Most interesting is the Other Reports section, which tells of some other deaths reported during the evacuation, although one of the links I clicked on did not work, so take with a grain of salt - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster_casualties
Chernobyl and Fukushima Death Toll comparison – VERY POOR ANALYSIS OF DATA, writer has conflated 16,000 Thyroid cancer cases with 16,000 Thyroid cancer deaths, Thyroid Cancer has a 1% fatality rate so the number is actually 160. This is a good example of how numbers in Scientific articles can be misunderstood and published incorrectly - https://ourworldindata.org/what-was-the-death-toll-from-chernobyl-and-fukushima#note-4
The missing news story they get their information about the evacuees fatalities (Feb, 2012) - https://wayback.archive-it.org/all/20120204190315/http:/www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120204003191.htm'Had Japan decided to keep all unaffected Nuclear Plants operating in 2012, rather than switching to Coal etc, they would have saved almost 9,500 people' - https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2019/10/31/shutting-down-japans-nuclear-plants-after-fukushima-was-a-bad-idea/#42f335c519a4
Who said that - https://econ.columbia.edu/econpeople/david-weinstein/Other Disasters:
Three Mile Island (Nuclear):
History of Three Mile Island Disaster - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident
San Juanico (Petroleum):
San Juanico Disaster – Narrated by Orson Welles! - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COtn7fWqOr0
Bhopal (Pesticides):
United States Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (USCSB) videos - https://www.youtube.com/user/USCSB/videos
USCSB Bhopal Investigation video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZirRB32qzU
General Radiation Resources:
Current Radiation Levels Map (Mostly CPM readings) - http://www.netc.com/
CPM Radiation explanation - https://soeks-usa.com/blogs/radiation/blog-what-is-cpm-in-radiation
Alpha Decay – Less common, short range but high energy radiation - https://www.britannica.com/science/alpha-decay
Alpha Decay explained and Penetrating Effects of Radiation - https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zxtgqhv/revision/2
What happens to emitted particles during radiation - https://hps.org/publicinformation/ate/q12012.html
Neutron Radiation - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutron_radiation
Effects of a Nuclear Bomb - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_nuclear_explosions
Basic Explanation of Radiation – Most interesting is the diagram showing that Alpha Particles are stopped by Paper or skin, Beta by Aluminum and Gamma by Lead - https://www.scienceabc.com/pure-sciences/why-are-certain-elements-radioactive-causes-examples.html
Half-life in radioactive decay explanation - https://www.env.go.jp/en/chemi/rhm/basic-info/1st/01-02-07.html
Biological, Radioactive and Effective half-life explained - https://dec.alaska.gov/eh/radiation/half-lives-explained/
Polonium-210 Fact Sheet – Polonium210 was used to kill the Russian Dissident Alexander Litvinenko - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Litvinenko - Polonium210 degrades with high energy Alpha Particles and has a fairly shot Physical half-life of 138 days – One Microgram can deliver 40 Sieverts of radiation (40 times more than required for Acute Radiation Syndrome, 4 times a lethal dose) - https://hps.org/documents/po210factsheet.pdf
We all have small amounts in our body, as it occurs naturally and is produced by the Physical Degradation of Radon-222 Gas and occurs in Tobacco, it has a Biological half-life of 50 days – One gram can produce 140 watts of electricity, very energy dense - https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/faqs_2006_-_polonium-210.pdf
How dangerous is Radiation:
Overview of Sieverts (My preferred radiation scale) – Also has a good explanation of Radiation at Chernobyl - http://www.chernobylgallery.com/chernobyl-disaster/radiation-levels/
Radiation Doses explained - https://www.radioactivity.eu.com/site/pages/Doses_Classification.htm
Overview of Radiation effect on Human body (News article) - https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2016-04-22/what-nuclear-radiation-does-to-your-body/7346324
Radioactive Equivalent Dose Calculator – Use to convert Sieverts to milli- or nano-sieverts or to REM - https://www.unitjuggler.com/convert-equivalentdose-from-Sv-to-mSv.html
Health Effects of Radiation:
Suggested by the Head of the Chernobyl Tissue Bank (Correspondence below) as a place to start to understand the health effects of radiation - https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/restatements/Oxford%20_Martin%20_Restatement5_Radiation.pdf
This is good, but it does lean on the conservative side when looking at the health effects of radiation and although it does distinguish between Acute and Long Term exposure, it does draw attention to this distinction, nor much about the method of exposure. Most harm it mentions is internal exposure, such as smoking, working in mines or eating/drinking effected produce and absorbing radioactive iodine. Huge exposures or external radiation (primarily Gamma) appear to be harmful or moderate exposures of internal radiation (Alpha, Beta or Gamma) can be harmful. I have read very little evidence of even moderate external exposures causing easily detectable harm, at very least the fear of the exposure outweighs the damage of the exposure in most cases.Fukushima increased cancer rate – ‘At this level, projected increase in cancer mortality would be ~0.001% above the natural rate’ – Pg25 - http://www2.ans.org/misc/FukushimaSpecialSession-Caracappa.pdf
Full report on increase in Thyroid Cancer after Fukushima - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5770131/
Perspective of Fukushima to other fatalities - https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/03/11/it-sounds-crazy-but-fukushima-chernobyl-and-three-mile-island-show-why-nuclear-is-inherently-safe/#50d3cd6f1688
Chernobyl Tissue Bank – Leading collator of Chernobyl Health Impact research – Professor Geraldine Thomas - https://www.chernobyltissuebank.com/index.htm
A talk by Professor Geraldine (Gerry) Thomas - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7sGESRhpqg
MY EMAIL CORRESPONDENCE WITH PROFESSOR 'GERRY' THOMAS
Hi Hugh
Sorry for the delay in responding. I’ll answer your questions in turn.
How many people died within the first few months of the Chernobyl meltdown (Immediate or near immediate deaths)?3 people died in the accident itself – one from a heart attack, one from thermal burns and another is believed to still be buried somewhere in the rubble. 143 people were diagnosed with acute radiation syndrome (ARS) (they received doses of over 1 Sv); 28 of these died as a result of a combination of ARS and thermal burns. 19 of this cohort have died subsequently, but it is difficult to attribute death by alcohol, smoking or a traffic accident to exposure to radiation.
How many people have died in the years up until now, that can have their deaths directly linked to the Chernobyl meltdown?There have been 19 deaths from thyroid cancer in about 10 million children (i.e. aged under 19 at the time of the accident) who were exposed to 131-I in fallout. There have been around 20,000 cases of thyroid cancer, 5000 of which are attributable to the radiation, according to UNSCEAR, but the mortality rate from thyroid cancer is about 1% over around 50 years. This is why the number of deaths is so low – thyroid cancer is the only cancer to have increased in the population and only in those who were children or adolescents at the time of the accident. This was not unexpected – it is known from animal studies that if you give radioiodine when the thyroid is growing, you increase the chance of thyroid cancer occurring later in life. We also know from a lot of human studies that when the thyroid stops growing (around the age of 20 in man) that radioiodine exposure no longer causes an increase in thyroid cancer risk. Thyroid cancer is very rare in the young normally, but does increase in incidence as we age – and some studies suggest that about 50% of the population may have a thyroid cancer that is subclinical at death. It is the sort of cancer that you live with, not die from, unless you are extremely unlucky!
What is the current prediction of deaths which may occur in the future as a direct link to the Chernobyl meltdown?It has been estimated that over a 50 year period exposure to radioiodine will have caused an excess of 16000 thyroid cancers in the population – that would give an estimated final death toll of 160 cases. The cohorts of liquidators are being followed up – it was estimated in 2006 that there may be 4000 excess cases of cancer in this cohort, based on the individual doses of radiation these workers received. However, none of the studies carried out on these cohorts have yet shown an increase in cancer of any sort, which suggests that this may be an overestimate. Please note that what is quoted is cancer cases, not cancer deaths. This is often misquoted as cancer deaths in the media – because cancer is becoming ever more curable, we cannot estimate cancer deaths, as treatments become better over time. If the radiation does not result in a significant increase in cancer cases in this cohort, then the effect on the population at large will also be much smaller than expected. The original estimates of 1000s of extra cancer cases comes from the use of a now outdated method called the cumulative dose, which was a bit like saying if 1 million men cut themselves shaving every day and lose 1ml of blood = 1000 litres of total blood loss. If you lose 2.5 litres of blood you are likely to die, therefore 400 men will die from shaving that day (1000/2.5). The collective dose has been dismissed now as an accurate way of estimating cancer cases – and you can see from the analogy why it is a stupid way to calculate possible cancer cases.
If I add all of these numbers together, would you say this is an accurate representation of the human toll caused by the Chernobyl meltdown, ignoring injury and mental anguish etc.?It is difficult to give a definitive estimate, but my reasoning is this – 31 deaths from the accident itself (3 from the accident and 28 deaths from ARS), an expected 160 (1% of 16,000) thyroid cancer deaths. This totals less than 200, but you probably need to add a few deaths in the liquidator cohort, although whether these can be accurately attributed to radiation exposure is a different matter. I would say anywhere between 200 – 500, and my expectation would be the lower end of this. People expect the toll to be higher because they think the individual doses were much higher than they were, and because they don’t understand that under 100 mSv it becomes very difficult to really be sure that radiation does anything – your chances of dying from other causes are much greater than the chances of dying from the radiation.
I would recommend that you read the Oxford Martin restatement on radiation (https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/oxford-martin-restatement-5-a-restatement-of-the-natural-science-evidence-base-concerning-the-health-effects-of-low-level-ionizing-radiation/). This will give you a lot more information.
BW
Gerry
CORRESPONDENCE THROUGH GMAIL
Talk by Professor Geraldine Thomas – Great explanation on the effects and public perspectives/misconceptions on radiation - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7sGESRhpqg
World Wide Cancer death data – Rates of Cancer decreasing, even though the number is increasing with population – Cancer mostly kills over 70’s - https://ourworldindata.org/cancer
Japan’s cancer rate over life is about 50% and 28.5% of all deaths are cancer related – Mostly in old age - https://www.nippon.com/en/features/h00211/cancer-remains-leading-cause-of-death-in-japan.html
Japanese Cancer fact sheet 2018 - https://gco.iarc.fr/today/data/factsheets/populations/392-japan-fact-sheets.pdf
General Cancer Atlas to show types and infer possible reasons for cancers - https://canceratlas.cancer.org/data/map/4622/
Negative News about Radiation:
Collation of false news stories about the Fukushima Disaster and impacts - http://www.jpquake.info/home
New example from this year promoting fear of Fukushima as people move back to the area –
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1707708483733
The Photographers thermal imaging images in his book - https://www.wallpaper.com/art/giles-price-restricted-residence-book
Article explaining the tests that foods have gone through to determine their safety - https://phys.org/news/2018-08-fukushima-japan-farmers-struggle.html
This article with back up scientific papers (See reference 1 and skip to Lessons Learned to read how quickly most food groups recovered; by April 2012) - https://www.nature.com/news/fukushima-data-show-rise-and-fall-in-food-radioactivity-1.17016
Misleading or false news stories about Japanese Radiation:
Disproving of the Japanese Fish Cancer stories - https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fukushima-radiation-marine-photos/
New Fish Cancer blog from 2018 (THIS ARTICLE CONTAINS MISINFORMATION) - https://www.disclose.tv/bloody-cancerous-tumors-in-fish-seafood-were-eating-fukushima-radiation-342930
A post from September 2019 saying the same thing and using the same pictures - https://www.facebook.com/QuantumWorldAwakenYourMind/photos/a.295030507294942/1654964094634903/?type=3&theater
Liked by 2700 people and shared 2100 times.Alternative news articles about the Radiation – If you click on the links provided you will find most or all of the links do not show what the author Michael Snyder is claiming, there is no indication that it is the result of Fukushima -
https://www.activistpost.com/2013/10/28-signs-that-west-coast-is-being.html
https://www.activistpost.com/2013/10/something-is-killing-life-all-over.html
Studies showing Radioactive spread:
Spread of Radiation through the oceans – Scientific Explanation - https://swfsc.noaa.gov/textblock.aspx?Division=FRD&id=20593
Original study showing the flow of currents (NOTE: Look at the scale on the map provided, just because the colour used is red, does not indicate high or dangerous concentrations. Colour is a tool to show differences.) - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034004
Other Energy Sources:
Sources showing where Renewables are possible:
Global Wind Atlas - https://globalwindatlas.info/
Global Solar Atlas - https://globalsolaratlas.info/
Geothermal Heat Map - https://irena.masdar.ac.ae/gallery/#map/688
Rainfall Map - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.PRCP.MM?view=map
Global Elevation Map - https://mapmaker.nationalgeographic.org/g2dM5g037QL42VJeayApqt/
Renewable Energy Components:
Electric Generators explained - https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/how-electricity-is-generated.php
Solar Power explained - https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/solar/photovoltaics-and-electricity.php
Battery power loss during charging - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217303730
Basic Turbine information (All power except for Photovoltaic is generated through turbines) - https://www.explainthatstuff.com/turbines.html
Pumped-Storage Hydroelectricity - Hydro battery - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity
Renewable Energies Mineral Mining:
Congo – Child mining of Cobalt (Upsetting) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTEVHykWZqk
Largest Cobalt Supplier - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhejiang_Huayou_Cobalt
Congo supplies over 60% of the worlds Cobalt - https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/top-cobalt-producing-countries/
Artisanal Mining - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artisanal_mining
Tesla Model S 3 uses 4.5kg of Cobalt per car, it was 11kg in the first model – It is not a small amount used in a battery - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/05/cutting-cobalt-challenge-battery-industry-electric-cars-congo
The issue is more than just Cobalt, several other minerals face the same issues – Congo is 70% of the worlds Cobalt according to this article – Minerals are used in Solar and Wind renewables technologies - https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/sep/05/most-renewable-energy-companies-claims-mines
Tracker of Human Rights Abuses in mining – Especially good to follow in regards to Renewable Energy components – Best example is viewing Glencore, one of the world’s largest mining corporations, they also have the most current allegations of Human Rights Abuses - https://trackers.business-humanrights.org/transition-minerals/
How Glencore represents themselves – Worth seeing how their suppliers are largely required to self-assess their mining standards with a multi-choice questionnaire - https://www.glencore.com/suppliers/faqs + https://www.glencore.com/who-we-are/our-products-in-life
Glencore middleman company (allegedly) - https://www.umicore.com/en/
Bolivia Coup about Lithium mining – My take on this is that it doesn’t look correct, I may be wrong as I do not know much about the situation - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/morales-claims-orchestrated-coup-tap-bolivia-lithium-191225053622809.html and here is one against this idea - https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/13/coup-morales-bolivia-lithium-isnt-new-oil/
Dams:
Flooded Spanish Town – Drought Effects Dams https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2017/11/spain-town-mansilla-de-la-sierra-reservoir-drought-spd/
Effect of Dam on the environment in Laos - https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-southeast-asia-building-dams-floods-climate-change/
Three Gorges Dam info –
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2006/06/china-three-gorges-dam-how-big/
Three Gorges Dam - https://www.google.com/maps/place/30%C2%B049'34.9%22N+111%C2%B000'25.3%22E/@30.8306525,110.8644855,74505m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m13!1m6!3m5!1s0x368477b3750c94f5:0xacbcac6e2574b3ee!2sThree+Gorges+Dam+Scenic+Area!8m2!3d30.809097!4d111.062576!3m5!1s0x0:0x0!7e2!8m2!3d30.8263582!4d111.0070222
Environmental impacts of the TGD – Most interesting is the huge amount of erosion that has occurred downstream (6.25 million M3 per year before 2002, up to a massive 108.8 million m3 from 2002 to 2010) – Another is the decrease in fish species reducing by 78.2% -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331344288_Three_Gorges_Project_China_Environmental_and_social_impacts
Worldwide declining fish numbers – Mekong River, home to a lot of spent carbon credits, is damming rivers for hydro power, yet over 70% of residents depend on fish. How can we dam the Mekong River to give power, something people currently survive without, at the expense of fish, something the people will struggle to survive without - https://theconversation.com/we-can-have-fish-and-dams-heres-how-61424
How Dams impacted fish species in Canada and North America - https://www.nwcouncil.org/reports/columbia-river-history/damsimpacts
Dam failures and deconstructions:
Conduit Dam Removal – See the effect the dam removal has on the river - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LxMHmw3Z-U
Long form explaining the process of removal and ecological steps - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HES_-dKUE9I
Dam breakthroughs, clickbait video, but does show the power of dams -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdJgpe8oKgc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8mCSjaGbx8
Vajont Dam Disaster in Italy - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkGnnc8Ezlk
Wind Turbines:
Engineering issues of Wind Turbines - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=og2H7ZxkiMA
Maintenance requirements of Wind Turbines - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUjCD-fFU9k
Video Compilation of Wind Turbine failures (Clickbait) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nemy4TD4I3A
General information on Wind Turbines - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_turbine
Facts about Wind Turbines – Approximately 1 in every hundred will have a blade detach - https://www.wind-watch.org/faq-size.php
Current most powerful wind turbine, the GE Haliade-X – Weighs 2,550 tonne including 600 tonne for the Narcella alone - https://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1577816/haliade-x-uncovered-ge-aims-14mw
Wind Turbine Land Use - https://sciencing.com/places-wind-turbines-produce-electricity-5159049.html
Wind farm Fatalities UK -
http://www.caithnesswindfarms.co.uk/accidents.pdf
http://www.windaction.org/posts?location=UK&topic=Injury&type=Article
Wind Turbine Ice Fall - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ms_Np-Cj0eA
Video of Wind Farm Proximity Effects - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7DQ3SgSg0c
Renewable Energy issues:
John Oliver on Infrastructure - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wpzvaqypav8
Banqiao Dam Failure (1975) – Up to 240,000 deaths - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Banqiao_Dam_failure
Why Renewables Won’t Save the World:
Recent Documentary by Michael Moore about the Renewables Industry - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE
Michael Shellenberger (Who I do find to be very well referenced) on Renewables - https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/05/17/if-renewables-are-so-great-for-the-environment-why-do-they-keep-destroying-it/#98460643a1c8
Michael Schellenburger TedX- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciStnd9Y2ak
Michael Schellenburger TedX - https://www.ted.com/talks/michael_shellenberger_how_fear_of_nuclear_power_is_hurting_the_environment/discussion#t-819230
Michael Schellenburger TedX – ‘Why renewables can’t save the planet’ - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-yALPEpV4w
Arsenic in Solar Panels – Dangerous Chemicals in Solar and what that means – Many of these chemicals are found naturally, but concentrations may be higher. Overall, there is a risk, but I am unconvinced about how risky it is. I am settled on the fact that the risks of Nuclear are less than the risks of solar if the aim is high energy production - https://grist.org/article/2010-01-06-solars-dirty-little-secret/
The Hazards of Coal Power:
Energy Sources and Fatalities – 5 Million Deaths due to Air Pollution per year - https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy
Germany shutting down Nuclear Power Plants - https://www.dw.com/en/germany-shuts-down-atomic-plant-as-nuclear-phase-out-enters-final-stretch/a-51845616
Germany will be reliant on Coal long after they shut down the Nuclear plants, possibly they will never kick coal - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/16/climate/germany-coal-climate-change.html
Clean Diesel ‘Volkswagen emissions scandal’ - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal
Many amazing maps and datapoints about CO2 emissions - https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions
Amazing maps and datapoints about energy – Look at NZ per capita energy consumption, it is in the second highest bracket - https://ourworldindata.org/energy#all-charts-preview
Energy Density of Uranium235 (Nuclear Fuel) = 3,900,000MJ/Kg - Energy Density of Coal = 24MJ/Kg -https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Energy_density
3900000/24 = 162500 times more energy (Without including how much energy to mine and transport this fuel)Frances Nuclear Program:
France Nuclear Power Program Summery – 3 Billion Euros profit each year - France generates a 2x2x2m (12m3) of waste per year per plant, currently 17% of Frances power is generated through putting this waste through newer reactors, this is likely to increase - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx
List of buildings larger than all of Frances Nuclear Waste - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_buildings#Largest_usable_volume
Cube Root Calculator - https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/algebra/cuberoots.php
Cost of a Nuclear Power Plant to build is between $6-9 Billion Dollars - http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2016/ph241/keller2/docs/schlissel.pdf
France selling clean energy to neighboring countries - https://www.electricitymap.org/zone/FR
Early in 2003 France's first national energy debate was announced, in response to a "strong demand from the French people", 70% of whom had identified themselves as being poorly informed on energy questions. A poll had shown that 67% of people thought that environmental protection was the single most important energy policy goal. (However, 58% thought that nuclear power caused climate change while only 46% thought that coal burning did so). The debate was to prepare the way for defining the energy mix for the next 30 years in the context of sustainable development at a European and at a global level. - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx
UK buys power from France when everyone turns on their kettle during the ad break - http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2017/05/uk-really-experience-power-surges-soap-operas-finish/
Transport:
Energy use - https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2014/01/10/air-travel-and-energy-use/
Average Distance driven - https://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Research/Documents/9212f97cc0/Drivers-2014-y911-Final-v3.pdf
Energy Efficiency in Transport - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_efficiency_in_transport#Automobiles
Reactor types and Nuclear Power resources:
Inside Bills Brain documentary - https://www.netflix.com/title/80184771
Traveling Wave Reactor - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traveling_wave_reactor
Fast Neutron Reactor - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/fast-neutron-reactors.aspx
Processing of Spent Nuclear Fuel - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/fuel-recycling/processing-of-used-nuclear-fuel.aspx?fbclid=IwAR335llm-Xv2UOy5_PkDI11pG_2BVApUnV5A7Q-NuQrsZY5JNtG1TU5K6nw
MOX fuel (Mixed Oxide Fuel) tested in Russian Fast Neutron Reactor the BN-800 - https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/First-serial-batch-of-MOX-fuel-loaded-into-BN-800?fbclid=IwAR1l2P-niskAgVbmlVNRwE8WzvbZnVy5JqJWllZNmZrISyleObqLTBB0iGA
List of current Nuclear Reactors, energy production and fuel requirements - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/facts-and-figures/world-nuclear-power-reactors-and-uranium-requireme.aspx?fbclid=IwAR3MNBi_0-2uR0rNXX4T8S7XZMfPo-EydX0i81P94fObJSZWsyh7r1FofDs
Amount of used fuel (Nuclear Waste) would be generated by one modern person (Canadian) over their lifetime using a current reactor - https://talknuclear.ca/tag/soda-can/?fbclid=IwAR0zOf2KfN4eMzAQ3LXfy2iixcVnShbCA6quPM_3z7jDSK1Omd5jW1Q2OXI
Amount and class of Nuclear Waste produced by France (2012) - https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/France-details-nuclear-waste-inventory?fbclid=IwAR3giEC8f5SFSVjcr1XN6P4qJGPHUaRcWvMYfoZ5hOO83I2zFCsSY_BCN6o
How Nuclear Waste is stored - https://www.edf.fr/en/edf/radioactive-waste?fbclid=IwAR0dPDk1ZJfcpzQ-EM4laHxcfsIsUgeuY4aCL6SWg5Vt4bbx8f7ZDYcnuYQ
Fairly complicated explanation of Fission Products - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fission_product_yield?fbclid=IwAR0eqYK0q-iPXnwW_pIWyGKU-bB0qhjwj54Ilpt2uQ6s9IsGNbjHqkTCjSo
Explanation of Nuclear Fuel Energy Density - https://whatisnuclear.com/energy-density.html?fbclid=IwAR0eqYK0q-iPXnwW_pIWyGKU-bB0qhjwj54Ilpt2uQ6s9IsGNbjHqkTCjSo
Comparison of Fuel Energy Density - https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Energy_density
Cosmic Origins of Uranium - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/uranium-resources/the-cosmic-origins-of-uranium.aspx
Depleted Uranium explanation - https://www.iaea.org/topics/spent-fuel-management/depleted-uranium
Iran Nuclear Deal – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#Second_enrichment_plant
United Arab Emirates Nuclear Plant Construction - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/united-arab-emirates.aspx
Solar power in the United Arab Emirates - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_Arab_Emirates
LUCA ROMANO NUCLEAR WASTE CALCULATIONS:
I cannot find you the link, so I'll just post you the math.
On the Soda Can link you can find evidence that the total nuclear fuel required by a person (a canadian, so energy consupmtion adequate to european and USA living standards) in a lifetime is 265 cubic centimeters.
Multiply by 10 billion people and you obtain 2650000000000 cubic centimeters, which translates to 265000000 cubic meters.Now we have to factor in the usage of fast breeding reactors, which would reduce fuel consumption by a factor 100, but let's be overly cautious and say that we don't reach the 98% fertile-to-fissile conversion efficiency that the Russians currently claim for the BN800, and let's say that we only reduce fuel consumption by a factor 70: this leaves us with 3,8 millions cubic meters.
The biggest ship by tonnage is the Pioneering Spirit, which is more than 400.000 GT, which equals rougly 1.3 millions cubic meters. You'll need less than three of those to fit in all the radioactive waste of a lifetime of production for canadian living standards for a 10 billion population.
However, this is not the full math yet: we have to factor in that among this waste there are several stable isotopes aswell as isotopes with much shorter lifetime. You can easy check on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fission_product_yield) that only 34% of the fission products have a half-life longer than 1 year. So if the spent fuel is processed and the elements are separated, the final amount of radioactive waste that you'll have to stock for a longer period of time, will be a third of the previous total.
Hence, a single ship.
More proof: https://whatisnuclear.com/energy-density.html
If you consider Europe’s total energy consumption it was roughly 1000 Mtoe, which means 38000 Mtoe for a 10 billion people world that consumes like Europe, which means 4 millions Mtoe of energy consumption for a century.
In MJ that would be 165 millions billions (ten to the 15th power).
Divide by energy density to compute the amount of fuel you need, you’ll find about two billion Kg, or two million tons.Considering the average density of fission products to be 4 tons/cubic meter you’ll find you’ll need 500.000 cubic meters, which is about a single oil tanker.
However, this calculation is generous since it considers possible to split every single atom of fuel, which is not the case. More realistically, you’ll end up with amounts like the ones shown in the previous calculation.
Which is still several order of magnitudes less than the waste generated by any other form of energy.
CONVERSATION THROUGH FACEBOOK
Contact:
Get in touch with Gerry through the website or through the Chernobyl Tissue Bank Website.
This is an R2S Sustainability Podcast hosted by Hugh Benson. Copyright 2020.
The theme music is by theMakeshift Parachutes–King Eeyore’s Xanax Party.
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Episode Notes
Chernobyl Tissue Bank
Website
https://www.chernobyltissuebank.com/index.htm
Funding bodies
https://www.chernobyltissuebank.com/funding.htm
The Oxford Martin Restatements
https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/restatements/
Radiation Poisoning Fatalities
Alexander Litvinyenko – Polonium 210 poisoning
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Litvinenko
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/58088
Radiation Types
https://www.compoundchem.com/2015/09/10/radiation/
Aberfan Disaster
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberfan_disaster
Flixborough Chemical Plant Explosion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flixborough_disaster
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WevjRH5fX98&ab_channel=DieselDave – Great BBC video from the time showing the destruction and talking to the people involved (4 minutes long). The plant was producing fertilizer and Nylon.
Rupert Wingfield-Hayes - Twitter
https://twitter.com/wingcommander1?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35761136 - Article with Prof. Gerry Thomas
Salisbury Poisoning of Russian Double Agent - Novichok
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Sergei_and_Yulia_Skripal
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok_agent
Acute Radiation Sickness
https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/emergencies/arsphysicianfactsheet.htm#:~:text=Acute%20Radiation%20Syndrome%20(ARS)%20(,usually%20a%20matter%20of%20minutes)
Aleksandr ‘Sasha’ Yuvchenko – Died in 2008 of a heart attack
https://www.reddit.com/r/ChernobylTV/comments/bx0yuo/cheating_chernobyl_interview_with_surviving_plant/
Cancer Rates for men and women
https://www.cancer.org/cancer/cancer-basics/lifetime-probability-of-developing-or-dying-from-cancer.html
https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/risk/lifetime-risk#heading-Zero
Episode 2 ReferencesMentioned people:
Dr. James Hansen
https://twitter.com/drjamesehansen
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/19/james-hansen-nasa-scientist-climate-change-warning
George Monbiot
https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/26/toxic-sofa-eu-red-tape-flame-retardants
Michael Schellenburger
https://twitter.com/shellenbergermd
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2020/04/21/new-michael-moore-backed-documentary-on-youtube-reveals-massive-ecological-impacts-of-renewables/#390355d46c96
Chernobyl References:
History of the Chernobyl Disaster - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster#Human
RBMK Reactors do not have containment domes - https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/chernobyl/faqs
The Chernobyl reactor type was used to create Weapons Grade Plutonium - http://nuclearconnect.org/chernobyl-in-brief
Chernobyl Birth Defects and Malformations - http://www.ibis-birthdefects.org/start/cache/Congenital%20Malformations%20Stillborn.pdf
Effects of Chernobyl on Health - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_Chernobyl_disaster#cite_note-125
Fukushima References:
History of the Fukushima Disaster –
https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx
https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster#Plant_description
Scale of Nuclear Disasters – 0-7; 7 being the highest, Fukushima got 7 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale
Fukushima Radiation Map explained and fact checked – Shows waves not radiation - https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fukushima-emergency/
Radiation spread in the oceans of the Fukushima Disaster - http://www.ourradioactiveocean.org/results.html
Fukushima Evacuation and Deaths:
Death toll of the Fukushima evacuation (Also see the video by Prof. ‘Gerry’ Thomas, above) – https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx
Additional information on personal cases of evacuation stress and death - https://www.ft.com/content/000f864e-22ba-11e8-add1-0e8958b189ea
Shutting down Nuclear Power Plants after Fukushima and evacuation (Unsourced) - https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/11/07/was-shutting-japans-reactors-deadlier-than-the-fukushima-disaster
NPR on the evacuation and lingering problems in Fukushima - https://www.npr.org/transcripts/148227596?storyId=148227596&t=1586599535859?storyId=148227596&t=1586599535859
Wikipedia on the Fukushima disaster casualties (Sourced) – Most interesting is the Other Reports section, which tells of some other deaths reported during the evacuation, although one of the links I clicked on did not work, so take with a grain of salt - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster_casualties
Chernobyl and Fukushima Death Toll comparison – VERY POOR ANALYSIS OF DATA, writer has conflated 16,000 Thyroid cancer cases with 16,000 Thyroid cancer deaths, Thyroid Cancer has a 1% fatality rate so the number is actually 160. This is a good example of how numbers in Scientific articles can be misunderstood and published incorrectly - https://ourworldindata.org/what-was-the-death-toll-from-chernobyl-and-fukushima#note-4
The missing news story they get their information about the evacuees fatalities (Feb, 2012) - https://wayback.archive-it.org/all/20120204190315/http:/www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120204003191.htm'Had Japan decided to keep all unaffected Nuclear Plants operating in 2012, rather than switching to Coal etc, they would have saved almost 9,500 people' - https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2019/10/31/shutting-down-japans-nuclear-plants-after-fukushima-was-a-bad-idea/#42f335c519a4
Who said that - https://econ.columbia.edu/econpeople/david-weinstein/Other Disasters:
Three Mile Island (Nuclear):
History of Three Mile Island Disaster - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident
San Juanico (Petroleum):
San Juanico Disaster – Narrated by Orson Welles! - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COtn7fWqOr0
Bhopal (Pesticides):
United States Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (USCSB) videos - https://www.youtube.com/user/USCSB/videos
USCSB Bhopal Investigation video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZirRB32qzU
General Radiation Resources:
Current Radiation Levels Map (Mostly CPM readings) - http://www.netc.com/
CPM Radiation explanation - https://soeks-usa.com/blogs/radiation/blog-what-is-cpm-in-radiation
Alpha Decay – Less common, short range but high energy radiation - https://www.britannica.com/science/alpha-decay
Alpha Decay explained and Penetrating Effects of Radiation - https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zxtgqhv/revision/2
What happens to emitted particles during radiation - https://hps.org/publicinformation/ate/q12012.html
Neutron Radiation - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutron_radiation
Effects of a Nuclear Bomb - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_nuclear_explosions
Basic Explanation of Radiation – Most interesting is the diagram showing that Alpha Particles are stopped by Paper or skin, Beta by Aluminum and Gamma by Lead - https://www.scienceabc.com/pure-sciences/why-are-certain-elements-radioactive-causes-examples.html
Half-life in radioactive decay explanation - https://www.env.go.jp/en/chemi/rhm/basic-info/1st/01-02-07.html
Biological, Radioactive and Effective half-life explained - https://dec.alaska.gov/eh/radiation/half-lives-explained/
Polonium-210 Fact Sheet – Polonium210 was used to kill the Russian Dissident Alexander Litvinenko - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Litvinenko - Polonium210 degrades with high energy Alpha Particles and has a fairly shot Physical half-life of 138 days – One Microgram can deliver 40 Sieverts of radiation (40 times more than required for Acute Radiation Syndrome, 4 times a lethal dose) - https://hps.org/documents/po210factsheet.pdf
We all have small amounts in our body, as it occurs naturally and is produced by the Physical Degradation of Radon-222 Gas and occurs in Tobacco, it has a Biological half-life of 50 days – One gram can produce 140 watts of electricity, very energy dense - https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/faqs_2006_-_polonium-210.pdf
How dangerous is Radiation:
Overview of Sieverts (My preferred radiation scale) – Also has a good explanation of Radiation at Chernobyl - http://www.chernobylgallery.com/chernobyl-disaster/radiation-levels/
Radiation Doses explained - https://www.radioactivity.eu.com/site/pages/Doses_Classification.htm
Overview of Radiation effect on Human body (News article) - https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2016-04-22/what-nuclear-radiation-does-to-your-body/7346324
Radioactive Equivalent Dose Calculator – Use to convert Sieverts to milli- or nano-sieverts or to REM - https://www.unitjuggler.com/convert-equivalentdose-from-Sv-to-mSv.html
Health Effects of Radiation:
Suggested by the Head of the Chernobyl Tissue Bank (Correspondence below) as a place to start to understand the health effects of radiation - https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/restatements/Oxford%20_Martin%20_Restatement5_Radiation.pdf
This is good, but it does lean on the conservative side when looking at the health effects of radiation and although it does distinguish between Acute and Long Term exposure, it does draw attention to this distinction, nor much about the method of exposure. Most harm it mentions is internal exposure, such as smoking, working in mines or eating/drinking effected produce and absorbing radioactive iodine. Huge exposures or external radiation (primarily Gamma) appear to be harmful or moderate exposures of internal radiation (Alpha, Beta or Gamma) can be harmful. I have read very little evidence of even moderate external exposures causing easily detectable harm, at very least the fear of the exposure outweighs the damage of the exposure in most cases.Fukushima increased cancer rate – ‘At this level, projected increase in cancer mortality would be ~0.001% above the natural rate’ – Pg25 - http://www2.ans.org/misc/FukushimaSpecialSession-Caracappa.pdf
Full report on increase in Thyroid Cancer after Fukushima - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5770131/
Perspective of Fukushima to other fatalities - https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/03/11/it-sounds-crazy-but-fukushima-chernobyl-and-three-mile-island-show-why-nuclear-is-inherently-safe/#50d3cd6f1688
Chernobyl Tissue Bank – Leading collator of Chernobyl Health Impact research – Professor Geraldine Thomas - https://www.chernobyltissuebank.com/index.htm
A talk by Professor Geraldine (Gerry) Thomas - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7sGESRhpqg
MY EMAIL CORRESPONDENCE WITH PROFESSOR 'GERRY' THOMAS
Hi Hugh
Sorry for the delay in responding. I’ll answer your questions in turn.
How many people died within the first few months of the Chernobyl meltdown (Immediate or near immediate deaths)?3 people died in the accident itself – one from a heart attack, one from thermal burns and another is believed to still be buried somewhere in the rubble. 143 people were diagnosed with acute radiation syndrome (ARS) (they received doses of over 1 Sv); 28 of these died as a result of a combination of ARS and thermal burns. 19 of this cohort have died subsequently, but it is difficult to attribute death by alcohol, smoking or a traffic accident to exposure to radiation.
How many people have died in the years up until now, that can have their deaths directly linked to the Chernobyl meltdown?There have been 19 deaths from thyroid cancer in about 10 million children (i.e. aged under 19 at the time of the accident) who were exposed to 131-I in fallout. There have been around 20,000 cases of thyroid cancer, 5000 of which are attributable to the radiation, according to UNSCEAR, but the mortality rate from thyroid cancer is about 1% over around 50 years. This is why the number of deaths is so low – thyroid cancer is the only cancer to have increased in the population and only in those who were children or adolescents at the time of the accident. This was not unexpected – it is known from animal studies that if you give radioiodine when the thyroid is growing, you increase the chance of thyroid cancer occurring later in life. We also know from a lot of human studies that when the thyroid stops growing (around the age of 20 in man) that radioiodine exposure no longer causes an increase in thyroid cancer risk. Thyroid cancer is very rare in the young normally, but does increase in incidence as we age – and some studies suggest that about 50% of the population may have a thyroid cancer that is subclinical at death. It is the sort of cancer that you live with, not die from, unless you are extremely unlucky!
What is the current prediction of deaths which may occur in the future as a direct link to the Chernobyl meltdown?It has been estimated that over a 50 year period exposure to radioiodine will have caused an excess of 16000 thyroid cancers in the population – that would give an estimated final death toll of 160 cases. The cohorts of liquidators are being followed up – it was estimated in 2006 that there may be 4000 excess cases of cancer in this cohort, based on the individual doses of radiation these workers received. However, none of the studies carried out on these cohorts have yet shown an increase in cancer of any sort, which suggests that this may be an overestimate. Please note that what is quoted is cancer cases, not cancer deaths. This is often misquoted as cancer deaths in the media – because cancer is becoming ever more curable, we cannot estimate cancer deaths, as treatments become better over time. If the radiation does not result in a significant increase in cancer cases in this cohort, then the effect on the population at large will also be much smaller than expected. The original estimates of 1000s of extra cancer cases comes from the use of a now outdated method called the cumulative dose, which was a bit like saying if 1 million men cut themselves shaving every day and lose 1ml of blood = 1000 litres of total blood loss. If you lose 2.5 litres of blood you are likely to die, therefore 400 men will die from shaving that day (1000/2.5). The collective dose has been dismissed now as an accurate way of estimating cancer cases – and you can see from the analogy why it is a stupid way to calculate possible cancer cases.
If I add all of these numbers together, would you say this is an accurate representation of the human toll caused by the Chernobyl meltdown, ignoring injury and mental anguish etc.?It is difficult to give a definitive estimate, but my reasoning is this – 31 deaths from the accident itself (3 from the accident and 28 deaths from ARS), an expected 160 (1% of 16,000) thyroid cancer deaths. This totals less than 200, but you probably need to add a few deaths in the liquidator cohort, although whether these can be accurately attributed to radiation exposure is a different matter. I would say anywhere between 200 – 500, and my expectation would be the lower end of this. People expect the toll to be higher because they think the individual doses were much higher than they were, and because they don’t understand that under 100 mSv it becomes very difficult to really be sure that radiation does anything – your chances of dying from other causes are much greater than the chances of dying from the radiation.
I would recommend that you read the Oxford Martin restatement on radiation (https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/oxford-martin-restatement-5-a-restatement-of-the-natural-science-evidence-base-concerning-the-health-effects-of-low-level-ionizing-radiation/). This will give you a lot more information.
BW
Gerry
CORRESPONDENCE THROUGH GMAIL
Talk by Professor Geraldine Thomas – Great explanation on the effects and public perspectives/misconceptions on radiation - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7sGESRhpqg
World Wide Cancer death data – Rates of Cancer decreasing, even though the number is increasing with population – Cancer mostly kills over 70’s - https://ourworldindata.org/cancer
Japan’s cancer rate over life is about 50% and 28.5% of all deaths are cancer related – Mostly in old age - https://www.nippon.com/en/features/h00211/cancer-remains-leading-cause-of-death-in-japan.html
Japanese Cancer fact sheet 2018 - https://gco.iarc.fr/today/data/factsheets/populations/392-japan-fact-sheets.pdf
General Cancer Atlas to show types and infer possible reasons for cancers - https://canceratlas.cancer.org/data/map/4622/
Negative News about Radiation:
Collation of false news stories about the Fukushima Disaster and impacts - http://www.jpquake.info/home
New example from this year promoting fear of Fukushima as people move back to the area –
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1707708483733
The Photographers thermal imaging images in his book - https://www.wallpaper.com/art/giles-price-restricted-residence-book
Article explaining the tests that foods have gone through to determine their safety - https://phys.org/news/2018-08-fukushima-japan-farmers-struggle.html
This article with back up scientific papers (See reference 1 and skip to Lessons Learned to read how quickly most food groups recovered; by April 2012) - https://www.nature.com/news/fukushima-data-show-rise-and-fall-in-food-radioactivity-1.17016
Misleading or false news stories about Japanese Radiation:
Disproving of the Japanese Fish Cancer stories - https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fukushima-radiation-marine-photos/
New Fish Cancer blog from 2018 (THIS ARTICLE CONTAINS MISINFORMATION) - https://www.disclose.tv/bloody-cancerous-tumors-in-fish-seafood-were-eating-fukushima-radiation-342930
A post from September 2019 saying the same thing and using the same pictures - https://www.facebook.com/QuantumWorldAwakenYourMind/photos/a.295030507294942/1654964094634903/?type=3&theater
Liked by 2700 people and shared 2100 times.Alternative news articles about the Radiation – If you click on the links provided you will find most or all of the links do not show what the author Michael Snyder is claiming, there is no indication that it is the result of Fukushima -
https://www.activistpost.com/2013/10/28-signs-that-west-coast-is-being.html
https://www.activistpost.com/2013/10/something-is-killing-life-all-over.html
Studies showing Radioactive spread:
Spread of Radiation through the oceans – Scientific Explanation - https://swfsc.noaa.gov/textblock.aspx?Division=FRD&id=20593
Original study showing the flow of currents (NOTE: Look at the scale on the map provided, just because the colour used is red, does not indicate high or dangerous concentrations. Colour is a tool to show differences.) - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034004
Other Energy Sources:
Sources showing where Renewables are possible:
Global Wind Atlas - https://globalwindatlas.info/
Global Solar Atlas - https://globalsolaratlas.info/
Geothermal Heat Map - https://irena.masdar.ac.ae/gallery/#map/688
Rainfall Map - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.PRCP.MM?view=map
Global Elevation Map - https://mapmaker.nationalgeographic.org/g2dM5g037QL42VJeayApqt/
Renewable Energy Components:
Electric Generators explained - https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/how-electricity-is-generated.php
Solar Power explained - https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/solar/photovoltaics-and-electricity.php
Battery power loss during charging - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217303730
Basic Turbine information (All power except for Photovoltaic is generated through turbines) - https://www.explainthatstuff.com/turbines.html
Pumped-Storage Hydroelectricity - Hydro battery - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity
Renewable Energies Mineral Mining:
Congo – Child mining of Cobalt (Upsetting) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTEVHykWZqk
Largest Cobalt Supplier - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhejiang_Huayou_Cobalt
Congo supplies over 60% of the worlds Cobalt - https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/top-cobalt-producing-countries/
Artisanal Mining - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artisanal_mining
Tesla Model S 3 uses 4.5kg of Cobalt per car, it was 11kg in the first model – It is not a small amount used in a battery - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/05/cutting-cobalt-challenge-battery-industry-electric-cars-congo
The issue is more than just Cobalt, several other minerals face the same issues – Congo is 70% of the worlds Cobalt according to this article – Minerals are used in Solar and Wind renewables technologies - https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/sep/05/most-renewable-energy-companies-claims-mines
Tracker of Human Rights Abuses in mining – Especially good to follow in regards to Renewable Energy components – Best example is viewing Glencore, one of the world’s largest mining corporations, they also have the most current allegations of Human Rights Abuses - https://trackers.business-humanrights.org/transition-minerals/
How Glencore represents themselves – Worth seeing how their suppliers are largely required to self-assess their mining standards with a multi-choice questionnaire - https://www.glencore.com/suppliers/faqs + https://www.glencore.com/who-we-are/our-products-in-life
Glencore middleman company (allegedly) - https://www.umicore.com/en/
Bolivia Coup about Lithium mining – My take on this is that it doesn’t look correct, I may be wrong as I do not know much about the situation - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/morales-claims-orchestrated-coup-tap-bolivia-lithium-191225053622809.html and here is one against this idea - https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/13/coup-morales-bolivia-lithium-isnt-new-oil/
Dams:
Flooded Spanish Town – Drought Effects Dams https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2017/11/spain-town-mansilla-de-la-sierra-reservoir-drought-spd/
Effect of Dam on the environment in Laos - https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-southeast-asia-building-dams-floods-climate-change/
Three Gorges Dam info –
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2006/06/china-three-gorges-dam-how-big/
Three Gorges Dam - https://www.google.com/maps/place/30%C2%B049'34.9%22N+111%C2%B000'25.3%22E/@30.8306525,110.8644855,74505m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m13!1m6!3m5!1s0x368477b3750c94f5:0xacbcac6e2574b3ee!2sThree+Gorges+Dam+Scenic+Area!8m2!3d30.809097!4d111.062576!3m5!1s0x0:0x0!7e2!8m2!3d30.8263582!4d111.0070222
Environmental impacts of the TGD – Most interesting is the huge amount of erosion that has occurred downstream (6.25 million M3 per year before 2002, up to a massive 108.8 million m3 from 2002 to 2010) – Another is the decrease in fish species reducing by 78.2% -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331344288_Three_Gorges_Project_China_Environmental_and_social_impacts
Worldwide declining fish numbers – Mekong River, home to a lot of spent carbon credits, is damming rivers for hydro power, yet over 70% of residents depend on fish. How can we dam the Mekong River to give power, something people currently survive without, at the expense of fish, something the people will struggle to survive without - https://theconversation.com/we-can-have-fish-and-dams-heres-how-61424
How Dams impacted fish species in Canada and North America - https://www.nwcouncil.org/reports/columbia-river-history/damsimpacts
Dam failures and deconstructions:
Conduit Dam Removal – See the effect the dam removal has on the river - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LxMHmw3Z-U
Long form explaining the process of removal and ecological steps - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HES_-dKUE9I
Dam breakthroughs, clickbait video, but does show the power of dams -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdJgpe8oKgc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8mCSjaGbx8
Vajont Dam Disaster in Italy - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkGnnc8Ezlk
Wind Turbines:
Engineering issues of Wind Turbines - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=og2H7ZxkiMA
Maintenance requirements of Wind Turbines - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUjCD-fFU9k
Video Compilation of Wind Turbine failures (Clickbait) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nemy4TD4I3A
General information on Wind Turbines - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_turbine
Facts about Wind Turbines – Approximately 1 in every hundred will have a blade detach - https://www.wind-watch.org/faq-size.php
Current most powerful wind turbine, the GE Haliade-X – Weighs 2,550 tonne including 600 tonne for the Narcella alone - https://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1577816/haliade-x-uncovered-ge-aims-14mw
Wind Turbine Land Use - https://sciencing.com/places-wind-turbines-produce-electricity-5159049.html
Wind farm Fatalities UK -
http://www.caithnesswindfarms.co.uk/accidents.pdf
http://www.windaction.org/posts?location=UK&topic=Injury&type=Article
Wind Turbine Ice Fall - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ms_Np-Cj0eA
Video of Wind Farm Proximity Effects - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7DQ3SgSg0c
Renewable Energy issues:
John Oliver on Infrastructure - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wpzvaqypav8
Banqiao Dam Failure (1975) – Up to 240,000 deaths - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Banqiao_Dam_failure
Why Renewables Won’t Save the World:
Recent Documentary by Michael Moore about the Renewables Industry - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE
Michael Shellenberger (Who I do find to be very well referenced) on Renewables - https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/05/17/if-renewables-are-so-great-for-the-environment-why-do-they-keep-destroying-it/#98460643a1c8
Michael Schellenburger TedX- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciStnd9Y2ak
Michael Schellenburger TedX - https://www.ted.com/talks/michael_shellenberger_how_fear_of_nuclear_power_is_hurting_the_environment/discussion#t-819230
Michael Schellenburger TedX – ‘Why renewables can’t save the planet’ - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-yALPEpV4w
Arsenic in Solar Panels – Dangerous Chemicals in Solar and what that means – Many of these chemicals are found naturally, but concentrations may be higher. Overall, there is a risk, but I am unconvinced about how risky it is. I am settled on the fact that the risks of Nuclear are less than the risks of solar if the aim is high energy production - https://grist.org/article/2010-01-06-solars-dirty-little-secret/
The Hazards of Coal Power:
Energy Sources and Fatalities – 5 Million Deaths due to Air Pollution per year - https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy
Germany shutting down Nuclear Power Plants - https://www.dw.com/en/germany-shuts-down-atomic-plant-as-nuclear-phase-out-enters-final-stretch/a-51845616
Germany will be reliant on Coal long after they shut down the Nuclear plants, possibly they will never kick coal - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/16/climate/germany-coal-climate-change.html
Clean Diesel ‘Volkswagen emissions scandal’ - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal
Many amazing maps and datapoints about CO2 emissions - https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions
Amazing maps and datapoints about energy – Look at NZ per capita energy consumption, it is in the second highest bracket - https://ourworldindata.org/energy#all-charts-preview
Energy Density of Uranium235 (Nuclear Fuel) = 3,900,000MJ/Kg - Energy Density of Coal = 24MJ/Kg -https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Energy_density
3900000/24 = 162500 times more energy (Without including how much energy to mine and transport this fuel)Frances Nuclear Program:
France Nuclear Power Program Summery – 3 Billion Euros profit each year - France generates a 2x2x2m (12m3) of waste per year per plant, currently 17% of Frances power is generated through putting this waste through newer reactors, this is likely to increase - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx
List of buildings larger than all of Frances Nuclear Waste - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_buildings#Largest_usable_volume
Cube Root Calculator - https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/algebra/cuberoots.php
Cost of a Nuclear Power Plant to build is between $6-9 Billion Dollars - http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2016/ph241/keller2/docs/schlissel.pdf
France selling clean energy to neighboring countries - https://www.electricitymap.org/zone/FR
Early in 2003 France's first national energy debate was announced, in response to a "strong demand from the French people", 70% of whom had identified themselves as being poorly informed on energy questions. A poll had shown that 67% of people thought that environmental protection was the single most important energy policy goal. (However, 58% thought that nuclear power caused climate change while only 46% thought that coal burning did so). The debate was to prepare the way for defining the energy mix for the next 30 years in the context of sustainable development at a European and at a global level. - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx
UK buys power from France when everyone turns on their kettle during the ad break - http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2017/05/uk-really-experience-power-surges-soap-operas-finish/
Transport:
Energy use - https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2014/01/10/air-travel-and-energy-use/
Average Distance driven - https://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Research/Documents/9212f97cc0/Drivers-2014-y911-Final-v3.pdf
Energy Efficiency in Transport - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_efficiency_in_transport#Automobiles
Reactor types and Nuclear Power resources:
Inside Bills Brain documentary - https://www.netflix.com/title/80184771
Traveling Wave Reactor - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traveling_wave_reactor
Fast Neutron Reactor - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/fast-neutron-reactors.aspx
Processing of Spent Nuclear Fuel - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/fuel-recycling/processing-of-used-nuclear-fuel.aspx?fbclid=IwAR335llm-Xv2UOy5_PkDI11pG_2BVApUnV5A7Q-NuQrsZY5JNtG1TU5K6nw
MOX fuel (Mixed Oxide Fuel) tested in Russian Fast Neutron Reactor the BN-800 - https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/First-serial-batch-of-MOX-fuel-loaded-into-BN-800?fbclid=IwAR1l2P-niskAgVbmlVNRwE8WzvbZnVy5JqJWllZNmZrISyleObqLTBB0iGA
List of current Nuclear Reactors, energy production and fuel requirements - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/facts-and-figures/world-nuclear-power-reactors-and-uranium-requireme.aspx?fbclid=IwAR3MNBi_0-2uR0rNXX4T8S7XZMfPo-EydX0i81P94fObJSZWsyh7r1FofDs
Amount of used fuel (Nuclear Waste) would be generated by one modern person (Canadian) over their lifetime using a current reactor - https://talknuclear.ca/tag/soda-can/?fbclid=IwAR0zOf2KfN4eMzAQ3LXfy2iixcVnShbCA6quPM_3z7jDSK1Omd5jW1Q2OXI
Amount and class of Nuclear Waste produced by France (2012) - https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/France-details-nuclear-waste-inventory?fbclid=IwAR3giEC8f5SFSVjcr1XN6P4qJGPHUaRcWvMYfoZ5hOO83I2zFCsSY_BCN6o
How Nuclear Waste is stored - https://www.edf.fr/en/edf/radioactive-waste?fbclid=IwAR0dPDk1ZJfcpzQ-EM4laHxcfsIsUgeuY4aCL6SWg5Vt4bbx8f7ZDYcnuYQ
Fairly complicated explanation of Fission Products - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fission_product_yield?fbclid=IwAR0eqYK0q-iPXnwW_pIWyGKU-bB0qhjwj54Ilpt2uQ6s9IsGNbjHqkTCjSo
Explanation of Nuclear Fuel Energy Density - https://whatisnuclear.com/energy-density.html?fbclid=IwAR0eqYK0q-iPXnwW_pIWyGKU-bB0qhjwj54Ilpt2uQ6s9IsGNbjHqkTCjSo
Comparison of Fuel Energy Density - https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Energy_density
Cosmic Origins of Uranium - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/uranium-resources/the-cosmic-origins-of-uranium.aspx
Depleted Uranium explanation - https://www.iaea.org/topics/spent-fuel-management/depleted-uranium
Iran Nuclear Deal – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#Second_enrichment_plant
United Arab Emirates Nuclear Plant Construction - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/united-arab-emirates.aspx
Solar power in the United Arab Emirates - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_Arab_Emirates
LUCA ROMANO NUCLEAR WASTE CALCULATIONS:
I cannot find you the link, so I'll just post you the math.
On the Soda Can link you can find evidence that the total nuclear fuel required by a person (a canadian, so energy consupmtion adequate to european and USA living standards) in a lifetime is 265 cubic centimeters.
Multiply by 10 billion people and you obtain 2650000000000 cubic centimeters, which translates to 265000000 cubic meters.Now we have to factor in the usage of fast breeding reactors, which would reduce fuel consumption by a factor 100, but let's be overly cautious and say that we don't reach the 98% fertile-to-fissile conversion efficiency that the Russians currently claim for the BN800, and let's say that we only reduce fuel consumption by a factor 70: this leaves us with 3,8 millions cubic meters.
The biggest ship by tonnage is the Pioneering Spirit, which is more than 400.000 GT, which equals rougly 1.3 millions cubic meters. You'll need less than three of those to fit in all the radioactive waste of a lifetime of production for canadian living standards for a 10 billion population.
However, this is not the full math yet: we have to factor in that among this waste there are several stable isotopes aswell as isotopes with much shorter lifetime. You can easy check on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fission_product_yield) that only 34% of the fission products have a half-life longer than 1 year. So if the spent fuel is processed and the elements are separated, the final amount of radioactive waste that you'll have to stock for a longer period of time, will be a third of the previous total.
Hence, a single ship.
More proof: https://whatisnuclear.com/energy-density.html
If you consider Europe’s total energy consumption it was roughly 1000 Mtoe, which means 38000 Mtoe for a 10 billion people world that consumes like Europe, which means 4 millions Mtoe of energy consumption for a century.
In MJ that would be 165 millions billions (ten to the 15th power).
Divide by energy density to compute the amount of fuel you need, you’ll find about two billion Kg, or two million tons.Considering the average density of fission products to be 4 tons/cubic meter you’ll find you’ll need 500.000 cubic meters, which is about a single oil tanker.
However, this calculation is generous since it considers possible to split every single atom of fuel, which is not the case. More realistically, you’ll end up with amounts like the ones shown in the previous calculation.
Which is still several order of magnitudes less than the waste generated by any other form of energy.
CONVERSATION THROUGH FACEBOOK
Contact:
Get in touch with Gerry through the website or through the Chernobyl Tissue Bank Website.
This is an R2S Sustainability Podcast hosted by Hugh Benson. Copyright 2020.
The theme music is by theMakeshift Parachutes–King Eeyore’s Xanax Party.
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Oldest Stained Glass in the world -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_stained_glass
Article about Glass in history through modern times - https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/04/humankinds-most-important-material/557315/
Michigan State University - Does Glass Leach? Glass, Steel or Plastic? - https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/steel_glass_and_or_plastic_bottles_what_is_the_best_choice
Polar Bear Stained Glass Window - https://www.instagram.com/p/B7I5t5LFxa2/
Articles from the R2S Website:
How plastic took over from Glass - https://r2srecycling.com/litterbug-why-waste-isnt-your-fault/
Glass vs Plastic for packaging - https://r2srecycling.com/why-i-love-glass/
Contact:
Get in touch with Kevin Tappin through Stained Glass Stuff, through Instagram or Facebook.
This is an R2S Sustainability Podcast hosted by Hugh Benson. Copyright 2020.
The theme music is by the Makeshift Parachutes–King Eeyore’s Xanax Party.
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Mentioned people:
Dr. James Hansen
https://twitter.com/drjamesehansen
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/19/james-hansen-nasa-scientist-climate-change-warning
George Monbiot
https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/26/toxic-sofa-eu-red-tape-flame-retardants
Michael Schellenburger
https://twitter.com/shellenbergermd
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2020/04/21/new-michael-moore-backed-documentary-on-youtube-reveals-massive-ecological-impacts-of-renewables/#390355d46c96
Chernobyl References:
History of the Chernobyl Disaster - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster#Human
RBMK Reactors do not have containment domes - https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/chernobyl/faqs
The Chernobyl reactor type was used to create Weapons Grade Plutonium - http://nuclearconnect.org/chernobyl-in-brief
Chernobyl Birth Defects and Malformations - http://www.ibis-birthdefects.org/start/cache/Congenital%20Malformations%20Stillborn.pdf
Effects of Chernobyl on Health - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_Chernobyl_disaster#cite_note-125
Fukushima References:
History of the Fukushima Disaster –
https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx
https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster#Plant_description
Scale of Nuclear Disasters – 0-7; 7 being the highest, Fukushima got 7 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale
Fukushima Radiation Map explained and fact checked – Shows waves not radiation - https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fukushima-emergency/
Radiation spread in the oceans of the Fukushima Disaster - http://www.ourradioactiveocean.org/results.html
Fukushima Evacuation and Deaths:
Death toll of the Fukushima evacuation (Also see the video by Prof. ‘Gerry’ Thomas, above) – https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx
Additional information on personal cases of evacuation stress and death - https://www.ft.com/content/000f864e-22ba-11e8-add1-0e8958b189ea
Shutting down Nuclear Power Plants after Fukushima and evacuation (Unsourced) - https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/11/07/was-shutting-japans-reactors-deadlier-than-the-fukushima-disaster
NPR on the evacuation and lingering problems in Fukushima - https://www.npr.org/transcripts/148227596?storyId=148227596&t=1586599535859?storyId=148227596&t=1586599535859
Wikipedia on the Fukushima disaster casualties (Sourced) – Most interesting is the Other Reports section, which tells of some other deaths reported during the evacuation, although one of the links I clicked on did not work, so take with a grain of salt - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster_casualties
Chernobyl and Fukushima Death Toll comparison – VERY POOR ANALYSIS OF DATA, writer has conflated 16,000 Thyroid cancer cases with 16,000 Thyroid cancer deaths, Thyroid Cancer has a 1% fatality rate so the number is actually 160. This is a good example of how numbers in Scientific articles can be misunderstood and published incorrectly - https://ourworldindata.org/what-was-the-death-toll-from-chernobyl-and-fukushima#note-4
The missing news story they get their information about the evacuees fatalities (Feb, 2012) - https://wayback.archive-it.org/all/20120204190315/http:/www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120204003191.htm'Had Japan decided to keep all unaffected Nuclear Plants operating in 2012, rather than switching to Coal etc, they would have saved almost 9,500 people' - https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2019/10/31/shutting-down-japans-nuclear-plants-after-fukushima-was-a-bad-idea/#42f335c519a4
Who said that - https://econ.columbia.edu/econpeople/david-weinstein/Other Disasters:
Three Mile Island (Nuclear):
History of Three Mile Island Disaster - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident
San Juanico (Petroleum):
San Juanico Disaster – Narrated by Orson Welles! - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COtn7fWqOr0
Bhopal (Pesticides):
United States Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (USCSB) videos - https://www.youtube.com/user/USCSB/videos
USCSB Bhopal Investigation video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZirRB32qzU
General Radiation Resources:
Current Radiation Levels Map (Mostly CPM readings) - http://www.netc.com/
CPM Radiation explanation - https://soeks-usa.com/blogs/radiation/blog-what-is-cpm-in-radiation
Alpha Decay – Less common, short range but high energy radiation - https://www.britannica.com/science/alpha-decay
Alpha Decay explained and Penetrating Effects of Radiation - https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zxtgqhv/revision/2
What happens to emitted particles during radiation - https://hps.org/publicinformation/ate/q12012.html
Neutron Radiation - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutron_radiation
Effects of a Nuclear Bomb - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_nuclear_explosions
Basic Explanation of Radiation – Most interesting is the diagram showing that Alpha Particles are stopped by Paper or skin, Beta by Aluminum and Gamma by Lead - https://www.scienceabc.com/pure-sciences/why-are-certain-elements-radioactive-causes-examples.html
Half-life in radioactive decay explanation - https://www.env.go.jp/en/chemi/rhm/basic-info/1st/01-02-07.html
Biological, Radioactive and Effective half-life explained - https://dec.alaska.gov/eh/radiation/half-lives-explained/
Polonium-210 Fact Sheet – Polonium210 was used to kill the Russian Dissident Alexander Litvinenko - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Litvinenko - Polonium210 degrades with high energy Alpha Particles and has a fairly shot Physical half-life of 138 days – One Microgram can deliver 40 Sieverts of radiation (40 times more than required for Acute Radiation Syndrome, 4 times a lethal dose) - https://hps.org/documents/po210factsheet.pdf
We all have small amounts in our body, as it occurs naturally and is produced by the Physical Degradation of Radon-222 Gas and occurs in Tobacco, it has a Biological half-life of 50 days – One gram can produce 140 watts of electricity, very energy dense - https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/faqs_2006_-_polonium-210.pdf
How dangerous is Radiation:
Overview of Sieverts (My preferred radiation scale) – Also has a good explanation of Radiation at Chernobyl - http://www.chernobylgallery.com/chernobyl-disaster/radiation-levels/
Radiation Doses explained - https://www.radioactivity.eu.com/site/pages/Doses_Classification.htm
Overview of Radiation effect on Human body (News article) - https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2016-04-22/what-nuclear-radiation-does-to-your-body/7346324
Radioactive Equivalent Dose Calculator – Use to convert Sieverts to milli- or nano-sieverts or to REM - https://www.unitjuggler.com/convert-equivalentdose-from-Sv-to-mSv.html
Health Effects of Radiation:
Suggested by the Head of the Chernobyl Tissue Bank (Correspondence below) as a place to start to understand the health effects of radiation - https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/restatements/Oxford%20_Martin%20_Restatement5_Radiation.pdf
This is good, but it does lean on the conservative side when looking at the health effects of radiation and although it does distinguish between Acute and Long Term exposure, it does draw attention to this distinction, nor much about the method of exposure. Most harm it mentions is internal exposure, such as smoking, working in mines or eating/drinking effected produce and absorbing radioactive iodine. Huge exposures or external radiation (primarily Gamma) appear to be harmful or moderate exposures of internal radiation (Alpha, Beta or Gamma) can be harmful. I have read very little evidence of even moderate external exposures causing easily detectable harm, at very least the fear of the exposure outweighs the damage of the exposure in most cases.Fukushima increased cancer rate – ‘At this level, projected increase in cancer mortality would be ~0.001% above the natural rate’ – Pg25 - http://www2.ans.org/misc/FukushimaSpecialSession-Caracappa.pdf
Full report on increase in Thyroid Cancer after Fukushima - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5770131/
Perspective of Fukushima to other fatalities - https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/03/11/it-sounds-crazy-but-fukushima-chernobyl-and-three-mile-island-show-why-nuclear-is-inherently-safe/#50d3cd6f1688
Chernobyl Tissue Bank – Leading collator of Chernobyl Health Impact research – Professor Geraldine Thomas - https://www.chernobyltissuebank.com/index.htm
A talk by Professor Geraldine (Gerry) Thomas - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7sGESRhpqg
MY EMAIL CORRESPONDENCE WITH PROFESSOR 'GERRY' THOMAS
Hi Hugh
Sorry for the delay in responding. I’ll answer your questions in turn.
How many people died within the first few months of the Chernobyl meltdown (Immediate or near immediate deaths)?3 people died in the accident itself – one from a heart attack, one from thermal burns and another is believed to still be buried somewhere in the rubble. 143 people were diagnosed with acute radiation syndrome (ARS) (they received doses of over 1 Sv); 28 of these died as a result of a combination of ARS and thermal burns. 19 of this cohort have died subsequently, but it is difficult to attribute death by alcohol, smoking or a traffic accident to exposure to radiation.
How many people have died in the years up until now, that can have their deaths directly linked to the Chernobyl meltdown?There have been 19 deaths from thyroid cancer in about 10 million children (i.e. aged under 19 at the time of the accident) who were exposed to 131-I in fallout. There have been around 20,000 cases of thyroid cancer, 5000 of which are attributable to the radiation, according to UNSCEAR, but the mortality rate from thyroid cancer is about 1% over around 50 years. This is why the number of deaths is so low – thyroid cancer is the only cancer to have increased in the population and only in those who were children or adolescents at the time of the accident. This was not unexpected – it is known from animal studies that if you give radioiodine when the thyroid is growing, you increase the chance of thyroid cancer occurring later in life. We also know from a lot of human studies that when the thyroid stops growing (around the age of 20 in man) that radioiodine exposure no longer causes an increase in thyroid cancer risk. Thyroid cancer is very rare in the young normally, but does increase in incidence as we age – and some studies suggest that about 50% of the population may have a thyroid cancer that is subclinical at death. It is the sort of cancer that you live with, not die from, unless you are extremely unlucky!
What is the current prediction of deaths which may occur in the future as a direct link to the Chernobyl meltdown?It has been estimated that over a 50 year period exposure to radioiodine will have caused an excess of 16000 thyroid cancers in the population – that would give an estimated final death toll of 160 cases. The cohorts of liquidators are being followed up – it was estimated in 2006 that there may be 4000 excess cases of cancer in this cohort, based on the individual doses of radiation these workers received. However, none of the studies carried out on these cohorts have yet shown an increase in cancer of any sort, which suggests that this may be an overestimate. Please note that what is quoted is cancer cases, not cancer deaths. This is often misquoted as cancer deaths in the media – because cancer is becoming ever more curable, we cannot estimate cancer deaths, as treatments become better over time. If the radiation does not result in a significant increase in cancer cases in this cohort, then the effect on the population at large will also be much smaller than expected. The original estimates of 1000s of extra cancer cases comes from the use of a now outdated method called the cumulative dose, which was a bit like saying if 1 million men cut themselves shaving every day and lose 1ml of blood = 1000 litres of total blood loss. If you lose 2.5 litres of blood you are likely to die, therefore 400 men will die from shaving that day (1000/2.5). The collective dose has been dismissed now as an accurate way of estimating cancer cases – and you can see from the analogy why it is a stupid way to calculate possible cancer cases.
If I add all of these numbers together, would you say this is an accurate representation of the human toll caused by the Chernobyl meltdown, ignoring injury and mental anguish etc.?It is difficult to give a definitive estimate, but my reasoning is this – 31 deaths from the accident itself (3 from the accident and 28 deaths from ARS), an expected 160 (1% of 16,000) thyroid cancer deaths. This totals less than 200, but you probably need to add a few deaths in the liquidator cohort, although whether these can be accurately attributed to radiation exposure is a different matter. I would say anywhere between 200 – 500, and my expectation would be the lower end of this. People expect the toll to be higher because they think the individual doses were much higher than they were, and because they don’t understand that under 100 mSv it becomes very difficult to really be sure that radiation does anything – your chances of dying from other causes are much greater than the chances of dying from the radiation.
I would recommend that you read the Oxford Martin restatement on radiation (https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/oxford-martin-restatement-5-a-restatement-of-the-natural-science-evidence-base-concerning-the-health-effects-of-low-level-ionizing-radiation/). This will give you a lot more information.
BW
Gerry
CORRESPONDENCE THROUGH GMAIL
Talk by Professor Geraldine Thomas – Great explanation on the effects and public perspectives/misconceptions on radiation - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7sGESRhpqg
World Wide Cancer death data – Rates of Cancer decreasing, even though the number is increasing with population – Cancer mostly kills over 70’s - https://ourworldindata.org/cancer
Japan’s cancer rate over life is about 50% and 28.5% of all deaths are cancer related – Mostly in old age - https://www.nippon.com/en/features/h00211/cancer-remains-leading-cause-of-death-in-japan.html
Japanese Cancer fact sheet 2018 - https://gco.iarc.fr/today/data/factsheets/populations/392-japan-fact-sheets.pdf
General Cancer Atlas to show types and infer possible reasons for cancers - https://canceratlas.cancer.org/data/map/4622/
Negative News about Radiation:
Collation of false news stories about the Fukushima Disaster and impacts - http://www.jpquake.info/home
New example from this year promoting fear of Fukushima as people move back to the area –
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1707708483733
The Photographers thermal imaging images in his book - https://www.wallpaper.com/art/giles-price-restricted-residence-book
Article explaining the tests that foods have gone through to determine their safety - https://phys.org/news/2018-08-fukushima-japan-farmers-struggle.html
This article with back up scientific papers (See reference 1 and skip to Lessons Learned to read how quickly most food groups recovered; by April 2012) - https://www.nature.com/news/fukushima-data-show-rise-and-fall-in-food-radioactivity-1.17016
Misleading or false news stories about Japanese Radiation:
Disproving of the Japanese Fish Cancer stories - https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fukushima-radiation-marine-photos/
New Fish Cancer blog from 2018 (THIS ARTICLE CONTAINS MISINFORMATION) - https://www.disclose.tv/bloody-cancerous-tumors-in-fish-seafood-were-eating-fukushima-radiation-342930
A post from September 2019 saying the same thing and using the same pictures - https://www.facebook.com/QuantumWorldAwakenYourMind/photos/a.295030507294942/1654964094634903/?type=3&theater
Liked by 2700 people and shared 2100 times.Alternative news articles about the Radiation – If you click on the links provided you will find most or all of the links do not show what the author Michael Snyder is claiming, there is no indication that it is the result of Fukushima -
https://www.activistpost.com/2013/10/28-signs-that-west-coast-is-being.html
https://www.activistpost.com/2013/10/something-is-killing-life-all-over.html
Studies showing Radioactive spread:
Spread of Radiation through the oceans – Scientific Explanation - https://swfsc.noaa.gov/textblock.aspx?Division=FRD&id=20593
Original study showing the flow of currents (NOTE: Look at the scale on the map provided, just because the colour used is red, does not indicate high or dangerous concentrations. Colour is a tool to show differences.) - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034004
Other Energy Sources:
Sources showing where Renewables are possible:
Global Wind Atlas - https://globalwindatlas.info/
Global Solar Atlas - https://globalsolaratlas.info/
Geothermal Heat Map - https://irena.masdar.ac.ae/gallery/#map/688
Rainfall Map - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.PRCP.MM?view=map
Global Elevation Map - https://mapmaker.nationalgeographic.org/g2dM5g037QL42VJeayApqt/
Renewable Energy Components:
Electric Generators explained - https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/how-electricity-is-generated.php
Solar Power explained - https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/solar/photovoltaics-and-electricity.php
Battery power loss during charging - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217303730
Basic Turbine information (All power except for Photovoltaic is generated through turbines) - https://www.explainthatstuff.com/turbines.html
Pumped-Storage Hydroelectricity - Hydro battery - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity
Renewable Energies Mineral Mining:
Congo – Child mining of Cobalt (Upsetting) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTEVHykWZqk
Largest Cobalt Supplier - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhejiang_Huayou_Cobalt
Congo supplies over 60% of the worlds Cobalt - https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/top-cobalt-producing-countries/
Artisanal Mining - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artisanal_mining
Tesla Model S 3 uses 4.5kg of Cobalt per car, it was 11kg in the first model – It is not a small amount used in a battery - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/05/cutting-cobalt-challenge-battery-industry-electric-cars-congo
The issue is more than just Cobalt, several other minerals face the same issues – Congo is 70% of the worlds Cobalt according to this article – Minerals are used in Solar and Wind renewables technologies - https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/sep/05/most-renewable-energy-companies-claims-mines
Tracker of Human Rights Abuses in mining – Especially good to follow in regards to Renewable Energy components – Best example is viewing Glencore, one of the world’s largest mining corporations, they also have the most current allegations of Human Rights Abuses - https://trackers.business-humanrights.org/transition-minerals/
How Glencore represents themselves – Worth seeing how their suppliers are largely required to self-assess their mining standards with a multi-choice questionnaire - https://www.glencore.com/suppliers/faqs + https://www.glencore.com/who-we-are/our-products-in-life
Glencore middleman company (allegedly) - https://www.umicore.com/en/
Bolivia Coup about Lithium mining – My take on this is that it doesn’t look correct, I may be wrong as I do not know much about the situation - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/morales-claims-orchestrated-coup-tap-bolivia-lithium-191225053622809.html and here is one against this idea - https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/13/coup-morales-bolivia-lithium-isnt-new-oil/
Dams:
Flooded Spanish Town – Drought Effects Dams https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2017/11/spain-town-mansilla-de-la-sierra-reservoir-drought-spd/
Effect of Dam on the environment in Laos - https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-southeast-asia-building-dams-floods-climate-change/
Three Gorges Dam info –
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2006/06/china-three-gorges-dam-how-big/
Three Gorges Dam - https://www.google.com/maps/place/30%C2%B049'34.9%22N+111%C2%B000'25.3%22E/@30.8306525,110.8644855,74505m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m13!1m6!3m5!1s0x368477b3750c94f5:0xacbcac6e2574b3ee!2sThree+Gorges+Dam+Scenic+Area!8m2!3d30.809097!4d111.062576!3m5!1s0x0:0x0!7e2!8m2!3d30.8263582!4d111.0070222
Environmental impacts of the TGD – Most interesting is the huge amount of erosion that has occurred downstream (6.25 million M3 per year before 2002, up to a massive 108.8 million m3 from 2002 to 2010) – Another is the decrease in fish species reducing by 78.2% -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331344288_Three_Gorges_Project_China_Environmental_and_social_impacts
Worldwide declining fish numbers – Mekong River, home to a lot of spent carbon credits, is damming rivers for hydro power, yet over 70% of residents depend on fish. How can we dam the Mekong River to give power, something people currently survive without, at the expense of fish, something the people will struggle to survive without - https://theconversation.com/we-can-have-fish-and-dams-heres-how-61424
How Dams impacted fish species in Canada and North America - https://www.nwcouncil.org/reports/columbia-river-history/damsimpacts
Dam failures and deconstructions:
Conduit Dam Removal – See the effect the dam removal has on the river - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LxMHmw3Z-U
Long form explaining the process of removal and ecological steps - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HES_-dKUE9I
Dam breakthroughs, clickbait video, but does show the power of dams -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdJgpe8oKgc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8mCSjaGbx8
Vajont Dam Disaster in Italy - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkGnnc8Ezlk
Wind Turbines:
Engineering issues of Wind Turbines - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=og2H7ZxkiMA
Maintenance requirements of Wind Turbines - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUjCD-fFU9k
Video Compilation of Wind Turbine failures (Clickbait) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nemy4TD4I3A
General information on Wind Turbines - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_turbine
Facts about Wind Turbines – Approximately 1 in every hundred will have a blade detach - https://www.wind-watch.org/faq-size.php
Current most powerful wind turbine, the GE Haliade-X – Weighs 2,550 tonne including 600 tonne for the Narcella alone - https://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1577816/haliade-x-uncovered-ge-aims-14mw
Wind Turbine Land Use - https://sciencing.com/places-wind-turbines-produce-electricity-5159049.html
Wind farm Fatalities UK -
http://www.caithnesswindfarms.co.uk/accidents.pdf
http://www.windaction.org/posts?location=UK&topic=Injury&type=Article
Wind Turbine Ice Fall - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ms_Np-Cj0eA
Video of Wind Farm Proximity Effects - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7DQ3SgSg0c
Renewable Energy issues:
John Oliver on Infrastructure - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wpzvaqypav8
Banqiao Dam Failure (1975) – Up to 240,000 deaths - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Banqiao_Dam_failure
Why Renewables Won’t Save the World:
Recent Documentary by Michael Moore about the Renewables Industry - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE
Michael Shellenberger (Who I do find to be very well referenced) on Renewables - https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/05/17/if-renewables-are-so-great-for-the-environment-why-do-they-keep-destroying-it/#98460643a1c8
Michael Schellenburger TedX- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciStnd9Y2ak
Michael Schellenburger TedX - https://www.ted.com/talks/michael_shellenberger_how_fear_of_nuclear_power_is_hurting_the_environment/discussion#t-819230
Michael Schellenburger TedX – ‘Why renewables can’t save the planet’ - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-yALPEpV4w
Arsenic in Solar Panels – Dangerous Chemicals in Solar and what that means – Many of these chemicals are found naturally, but concentrations may be higher. Overall, there is a risk, but I am unconvinced about how risky it is. I am settled on the fact that the risks of Nuclear are less than the risks of solar if the aim is high energy production - https://grist.org/article/2010-01-06-solars-dirty-little-secret/
The Hazards of Coal Power:
Energy Sources and Fatalities – 5 Million Deaths due to Air Pollution per year - https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy
Germany shutting down Nuclear Power Plants - https://www.dw.com/en/germany-shuts-down-atomic-plant-as-nuclear-phase-out-enters-final-stretch/a-51845616
Germany will be reliant on Coal long after they shut down the Nuclear plants, possibly they will never kick coal - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/16/climate/germany-coal-climate-change.html
Clean Diesel ‘Volkswagen emissions scandal’ - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal
Many amazing maps and datapoints about CO2 emissions - https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions
Amazing maps and datapoints about energy – Look at NZ per capita energy consumption, it is in the second highest bracket - https://ourworldindata.org/energy#all-charts-preview
Energy Density of Uranium235 (Nuclear Fuel) = 3,900,000MJ/Kg - Energy Density of Coal = 24MJ/Kg -https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Energy_density
3900000/24 = 162500 times more energy (Without including how much energy to mine and transport this fuel)Frances Nuclear Program:
France Nuclear Power Program Summery – 3 Billion Euros profit each year - France generates a 2x2x2m (12m3) of waste per year per plant, currently 17% of Frances power is generated through putting this waste through newer reactors, this is likely to increase - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx
List of buildings larger than all of Frances Nuclear Waste - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_buildings#Largest_usable_volume
Cube Root Calculator - https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/algebra/cuberoots.php
Cost of a Nuclear Power Plant to build is between $6-9 Billion Dollars - http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2016/ph241/keller2/docs/schlissel.pdf
France selling clean energy to neighboring countries - https://www.electricitymap.org/zone/FR
Early in 2003 France's first national energy debate was announced, in response to a "strong demand from the French people", 70% of whom had identified themselves as being poorly informed on energy questions. A poll had shown that 67% of people thought that environmental protection was the single most important energy policy goal. (However, 58% thought that nuclear power caused climate change while only 46% thought that coal burning did so). The debate was to prepare the way for defining the energy mix for the next 30 years in the context of sustainable development at a European and at a global level. - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx
UK buys power from France when everyone turns on their kettle during the ad break - http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2017/05/uk-really-experience-power-surges-soap-operas-finish/
Transport:
Energy use - https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2014/01/10/air-travel-and-energy-use/
Average Distance driven - https://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Research/Documents/9212f97cc0/Drivers-2014-y911-Final-v3.pdf
Energy Efficiency in Transport - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_efficiency_in_transport#Automobiles
Reactor types and Nuclear Power resources:
Inside Bills Brain documentary - https://www.netflix.com/title/80184771
Traveling Wave Reactor - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traveling_wave_reactor
Fast Neutron Reactor - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/fast-neutron-reactors.aspx
Processing of Spent Nuclear Fuel - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/fuel-recycling/processing-of-used-nuclear-fuel.aspx?fbclid=IwAR335llm-Xv2UOy5_PkDI11pG_2BVApUnV5A7Q-NuQrsZY5JNtG1TU5K6nw
MOX fuel (Mixed Oxide Fuel) tested in Russian Fast Neutron Reactor the BN-800 - https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/First-serial-batch-of-MOX-fuel-loaded-into-BN-800?fbclid=IwAR1l2P-niskAgVbmlVNRwE8WzvbZnVy5JqJWllZNmZrISyleObqLTBB0iGA
List of current Nuclear Reactors, energy production and fuel requirements - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/facts-and-figures/world-nuclear-power-reactors-and-uranium-requireme.aspx?fbclid=IwAR3MNBi_0-2uR0rNXX4T8S7XZMfPo-EydX0i81P94fObJSZWsyh7r1FofDs
Amount of used fuel (Nuclear Waste) would be generated by one modern person (Canadian) over their lifetime using a current reactor - https://talknuclear.ca/tag/soda-can/?fbclid=IwAR0zOf2KfN4eMzAQ3LXfy2iixcVnShbCA6quPM_3z7jDSK1Omd5jW1Q2OXI
Amount and class of Nuclear Waste produced by France (2012) - https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/France-details-nuclear-waste-inventory?fbclid=IwAR3giEC8f5SFSVjcr1XN6P4qJGPHUaRcWvMYfoZ5hOO83I2zFCsSY_BCN6o
How Nuclear Waste is stored - https://www.edf.fr/en/edf/radioactive-waste?fbclid=IwAR0dPDk1ZJfcpzQ-EM4laHxcfsIsUgeuY4aCL6SWg5Vt4bbx8f7ZDYcnuYQ
Fairly complicated explanation of Fission Products - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fission_product_yield?fbclid=IwAR0eqYK0q-iPXnwW_pIWyGKU-bB0qhjwj54Ilpt2uQ6s9IsGNbjHqkTCjSo
Explanation of Nuclear Fuel Energy Density - https://whatisnuclear.com/energy-density.html?fbclid=IwAR0eqYK0q-iPXnwW_pIWyGKU-bB0qhjwj54Ilpt2uQ6s9IsGNbjHqkTCjSo
Comparison of Fuel Energy Density - https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Energy_density
Cosmic Origins of Uranium - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/uranium-resources/the-cosmic-origins-of-uranium.aspx
Depleted Uranium explanation - https://www.iaea.org/topics/spent-fuel-management/depleted-uranium
Iran Nuclear Deal – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#Second_enrichment_plant
United Arab Emirates Nuclear Plant Construction - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/united-arab-emirates.aspx
Solar power in the United Arab Emirates - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_Arab_Emirates
LUCA ROMANO NUCLEAR WASTE CALCULATIONS:
I cannot find you the link, so I'll just post you the math.
On the Soda Can link you can find evidence that the total nuclear fuel required by a person (a canadian, so energy consupmtion adequate to european and USA living standards) in a lifetime is 265 cubic centimeters.
Multiply by 10 billion people and you obtain 2650000000000 cubic centimeters, which translates to 265000000 cubic meters.Now we have to factor in the usage of fast breeding reactors, which would reduce fuel consumption by a factor 100, but let's be overly cautious and say that we don't reach the 98% fertile-to-fissile conversion efficiency that the Russians currently claim for the BN800, and let's say that we only reduce fuel consumption by a factor 70: this leaves us with 3,8 millions cubic meters.
The biggest ship by tonnage is the Pioneering Spirit, which is more than 400.000 GT, which equals rougly 1.3 millions cubic meters. You'll need less than three of those to fit in all the radioactive waste of a lifetime of production for canadian living standards for a 10 billion population.
However, this is not the full math yet: we have to factor in that among this waste there are several stable isotopes aswell as isotopes with much shorter lifetime. You can easy check on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fission_product_yield) that only 34% of the fission products have a half-life longer than 1 year. So if the spent fuel is processed and the elements are separated, the final amount of radioactive waste that you'll have to stock for a longer period of time, will be a third of the previous total.
Hence, a single ship.
More proof: https://whatisnuclear.com/energy-density.html
If you consider Europe’s total energy consumption it was roughly 1000 Mtoe, which means 38000 Mtoe for a 10 billion people world that consumes like Europe, which means 4 millions Mtoe of energy consumption for a century.
In MJ that would be 165 millions billions (ten to the 15th power).
Divide by energy density to compute the amount of fuel you need, you’ll find about two billion Kg, or two million tons.Considering the average density of fission products to be 4 tons/cubic meter you’ll find you’ll need 500.000 cubic meters, which is about a single oil tanker.
However, this calculation is generous since it considers possible to split every single atom of fuel, which is not the case. More realistically, you’ll end up with amounts like the ones shown in the previous calculation.
Which is still several order of magnitudes less than the waste generated by any other form of energy.
CONVERSATION THROUGH FACEBOOK
Contact:
Get in touch with Luca Romano through Facebook.
This is an R2S Sustainability Podcast hosted by Hugh Benson. Copyright 2020.
The theme music is by theMakeshift Parachutes–King Eeyore’s Xanax Party..
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Mentioned people:
Dr. James Hansen
https://twitter.com/drjamesehansen
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/19/james-hansen-nasa-scientist-climate-change-warning
George Monbiot
https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/26/toxic-sofa-eu-red-tape-flame-retardants
Michael Schellenburger
https://twitter.com/shellenbergermd
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2020/04/21/new-michael-moore-backed-documentary-on-youtube-reveals-massive-ecological-impacts-of-renewables/#390355d46c96
Chernobyl References:
History of the Chernobyl Disaster - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster#Human
RBMK Reactors do not have containment domes - https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/chernobyl/faqs
The Chernobyl reactor type was used to create Weapons Grade Plutonium - http://nuclearconnect.org/chernobyl-in-brief
Chernobyl Birth Defects and Malformations - http://www.ibis-birthdefects.org/start/cache/Congenital%20Malformations%20Stillborn.pdf
Effects of Chernobyl on Health - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_Chernobyl_disaster#cite_note-125
Fukushima References:
History of the Fukushima Disaster –
https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx
https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster#Plant_description
Scale of Nuclear Disasters – 0-7; 7 being the highest, Fukushima got 7 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale
Fukushima Radiation Map explained and fact checked – Shows waves not radiation - https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fukushima-emergency/
Radiation spread in the oceans of the Fukushima Disaster - http://www.ourradioactiveocean.org/results.html
Fukushima Evacuation and Deaths:
Death toll of the Fukushima evacuation (Also see the video by Prof. ‘Gerry’ Thomas, above) – https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx
Additional information on personal cases of evacuation stress and death - https://www.ft.com/content/000f864e-22ba-11e8-add1-0e8958b189ea
Shutting down Nuclear Power Plants after Fukushima and evacuation (Unsourced) - https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/11/07/was-shutting-japans-reactors-deadlier-than-the-fukushima-disaster
NPR on the evacuation and lingering problems in Fukushima - https://www.npr.org/transcripts/148227596?storyId=148227596&t=1586599535859?storyId=148227596&t=1586599535859
Wikipedia on the Fukushima disaster casualties (Sourced) – Most interesting is the Other Reports section, which tells of some other deaths reported during the evacuation, although one of the links I clicked on did not work, so take with a grain of salt - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster_casualties
Chernobyl and Fukushima Death Toll comparison – VERY POOR ANALYSIS OF DATA, writer has conflated 16,000 Thyroid cancer cases with 16,000 Thyroid cancer deaths, Thyroid Cancer has a 1% fatality rate so the number is actually 160. This is a good example of how numbers in Scientific articles can be misunderstood and published incorrectly - https://ourworldindata.org/what-was-the-death-toll-from-chernobyl-and-fukushima#note-4
The missing news story they get their information about the evacuees fatalities (Feb, 2012) - https://wayback.archive-it.org/all/20120204190315/http:/www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120204003191.htm'Had Japan decided to keep all unaffected Nuclear Plants operating in 2012, rather than switching to Coal etc, they would have saved almost 9,500 people' - https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2019/10/31/shutting-down-japans-nuclear-plants-after-fukushima-was-a-bad-idea/#42f335c519a4
Who said that - https://econ.columbia.edu/econpeople/david-weinstein/Other Disasters:
Three Mile Island (Nuclear):
History of Three Mile Island Disaster - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident
San Juanico (Petroleum):
San Juanico Disaster – Narrated by Orson Welles! - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COtn7fWqOr0
Bhopal (Pesticides):
United States Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (USCSB) videos - https://www.youtube.com/user/USCSB/videos
USCSB Bhopal Investigation video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZirRB32qzU
General Radiation Resources:
Current Radiation Levels Map (Mostly CPM readings) - http://www.netc.com/
CPM Radiation explanation - https://soeks-usa.com/blogs/radiation/blog-what-is-cpm-in-radiation
Alpha Decay – Less common, short range but high energy radiation - https://www.britannica.com/science/alpha-decay
Alpha Decay explained and Penetrating Effects of Radiation - https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zxtgqhv/revision/2
What happens to emitted particles during radiation - https://hps.org/publicinformation/ate/q12012.html
Neutron Radiation - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutron_radiation
Effects of a Nuclear Bomb - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_nuclear_explosions
Basic Explanation of Radiation – Most interesting is the diagram showing that Alpha Particles are stopped by Paper or skin, Beta by Aluminum and Gamma by Lead - https://www.scienceabc.com/pure-sciences/why-are-certain-elements-radioactive-causes-examples.html
Half-life in radioactive decay explanation - https://www.env.go.jp/en/chemi/rhm/basic-info/1st/01-02-07.html
Biological, Radioactive and Effective half-life explained - https://dec.alaska.gov/eh/radiation/half-lives-explained/
Polonium-210 Fact Sheet – Polonium210 was used to kill the Russian Dissident Alexander Litvinenko - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Litvinenko - Polonium210 degrades with high energy Alpha Particles and has a fairly shot Physical half-life of 138 days – One Microgram can deliver 40 Sieverts of radiation (40 times more than required for Acute Radiation Syndrome, 4 times a lethal dose) - https://hps.org/documents/po210factsheet.pdf
We all have small amounts in our body, as it occurs naturally and is produced by the Physical Degradation of Radon-222 Gas and occurs in Tobacco, it has a Biological half-life of 50 days – One gram can produce 140 watts of electricity, very energy dense - https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/faqs_2006_-_polonium-210.pdf
How dangerous is Radiation:
Overview of Sieverts (My preferred radiation scale) – Also has a good explanation of Radiation at Chernobyl - http://www.chernobylgallery.com/chernobyl-disaster/radiation-levels/
Radiation Doses explained - https://www.radioactivity.eu.com/site/pages/Doses_Classification.htm
Overview of Radiation effect on Human body (News article) - https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2016-04-22/what-nuclear-radiation-does-to-your-body/7346324
Radioactive Equivalent Dose Calculator – Use to convert Sieverts to milli- or nano-sieverts or to REM - https://www.unitjuggler.com/convert-equivalentdose-from-Sv-to-mSv.html
Health Effects of Radiation:
Suggested by the Head of the Chernobyl Tissue Bank (Correspondence below) as a place to start to understand the health effects of radiation - https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/restatements/Oxford%20_Martin%20_Restatement5_Radiation.pdf
This is good, but it does lean on the conservative side when looking at the health effects of radiation and although it does distinguish between Acute and Long Term exposure, it does draw attention to this distinction, nor much about the method of exposure. Most harm it mentions is internal exposure, such as smoking, working in mines or eating/drinking effected produce and absorbing radioactive iodine. Huge exposures or external radiation (primarily Gamma) appear to be harmful or moderate exposures of internal radiation (Alpha, Beta or Gamma) can be harmful. I have read very little evidence of even moderate external exposures causing easily detectable harm, at very least the fear of the exposure outweighs the damage of the exposure in most cases.Fukushima increased cancer rate – ‘At this level, projected increase in cancer mortality would be ~0.001% above the natural rate’ – Pg25 - http://www2.ans.org/misc/FukushimaSpecialSession-Caracappa.pdf
Full report on increase in Thyroid Cancer after Fukushima - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5770131/
Perspective of Fukushima to other fatalities - https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/03/11/it-sounds-crazy-but-fukushima-chernobyl-and-three-mile-island-show-why-nuclear-is-inherently-safe/#50d3cd6f1688
Chernobyl Tissue Bank – Leading collator of Chernobyl Health Impact research – Professor Geraldine Thomas - https://www.chernobyltissuebank.com/index.htm
A talk by Professor Geraldine (Gerry) Thomas - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7sGESRhpqg
MY EMAIL CORRESPONDENCE WITH PROFESSOR 'GERRY' THOMAS
Hi Hugh
Sorry for the delay in responding. I’ll answer your questions in turn.
How many people died within the first few months of the Chernobyl meltdown (Immediate or near immediate deaths)?3 people died in the accident itself – one from a heart attack, one from thermal burns and another is believed to still be buried somewhere in the rubble. 143 people were diagnosed with acute radiation syndrome (ARS) (they received doses of over 1 Sv); 28 of these died as a result of a combination of ARS and thermal burns. 19 of this cohort have died subsequently, but it is difficult to attribute death by alcohol, smoking or a traffic accident to exposure to radiation.
How many people have died in the years up until now, that can have their deaths directly linked to the Chernobyl meltdown?There have been 19 deaths from thyroid cancer in about 10 million children (i.e. aged under 19 at the time of the accident) who were exposed to 131-I in fallout. There have been around 20,000 cases of thyroid cancer, 5000 of which are attributable to the radiation, according to UNSCEAR, but the mortality rate from thyroid cancer is about 1% over around 50 years. This is why the number of deaths is so low – thyroid cancer is the only cancer to have increased in the population and only in those who were children or adolescents at the time of the accident. This was not unexpected – it is known from animal studies that if you give radioiodine when the thyroid is growing, you increase the chance of thyroid cancer occurring later in life. We also know from a lot of human studies that when the thyroid stops growing (around the age of 20 in man) that radioiodine exposure no longer causes an increase in thyroid cancer risk. Thyroid cancer is very rare in the young normally, but does increase in incidence as we age – and some studies suggest that about 50% of the population may have a thyroid cancer that is subclinical at death. It is the sort of cancer that you live with, not die from, unless you are extremely unlucky!
What is the current prediction of deaths which may occur in the future as a direct link to the Chernobyl meltdown?It has been estimated that over a 50 year period exposure to radioiodine will have caused an excess of 16000 thyroid cancers in the population – that would give an estimated final death toll of 160 cases. The cohorts of liquidators are being followed up – it was estimated in 2006 that there may be 4000 excess cases of cancer in this cohort, based on the individual doses of radiation these workers received. However, none of the studies carried out on these cohorts have yet shown an increase in cancer of any sort, which suggests that this may be an overestimate. Please note that what is quoted is cancer cases, not cancer deaths. This is often misquoted as cancer deaths in the media – because cancer is becoming ever more curable, we cannot estimate cancer deaths, as treatments become better over time. If the radiation does not result in a significant increase in cancer cases in this cohort, then the effect on the population at large will also be much smaller than expected. The original estimates of 1000s of extra cancer cases comes from the use of a now outdated method called the cumulative dose, which was a bit like saying if 1 million men cut themselves shaving every day and lose 1ml of blood = 1000 litres of total blood loss. If you lose 2.5 litres of blood you are likely to die, therefore 400 men will die from shaving that day (1000/2.5). The collective dose has been dismissed now as an accurate way of estimating cancer cases – and you can see from the analogy why it is a stupid way to calculate possible cancer cases.
If I add all of these numbers together, would you say this is an accurate representation of the human toll caused by the Chernobyl meltdown, ignoring injury and mental anguish etc.?It is difficult to give a definitive estimate, but my reasoning is this – 31 deaths from the accident itself (3 from the accident and 28 deaths from ARS), an expected 160 (1% of 16,000) thyroid cancer deaths. This totals less than 200, but you probably need to add a few deaths in the liquidator cohort, although whether these can be accurately attributed to radiation exposure is a different matter. I would say anywhere between 200 – 500, and my expectation would be the lower end of this. People expect the toll to be higher because they think the individual doses were much higher than they were, and because they don’t understand that under 100 mSv it becomes very difficult to really be sure that radiation does anything – your chances of dying from other causes are much greater than the chances of dying from the radiation.
I would recommend that you read the Oxford Martin restatement on radiation (https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/oxford-martin-restatement-5-a-restatement-of-the-natural-science-evidence-base-concerning-the-health-effects-of-low-level-ionizing-radiation/). This will give you a lot more information.
BW
Gerry
CORRESPONDENCE THROUGH GMAIL
Talk by Professor Geraldine Thomas – Great explanation on the effects and public perspectives/misconceptions on radiation - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7sGESRhpqg
World Wide Cancer death data – Rates of Cancer decreasing, even though the number is increasing with population – Cancer mostly kills over 70’s - https://ourworldindata.org/cancer
Japan’s cancer rate over life is about 50% and 28.5% of all deaths are cancer related – Mostly in old age - https://www.nippon.com/en/features/h00211/cancer-remains-leading-cause-of-death-in-japan.html
Japanese Cancer fact sheet 2018 - https://gco.iarc.fr/today/data/factsheets/populations/392-japan-fact-sheets.pdf
General Cancer Atlas to show types and infer possible reasons for cancers - https://canceratlas.cancer.org/data/map/4622/
Negative News about Radiation:
Collation of false news stories about the Fukushima Disaster and impacts - http://www.jpquake.info/home
New example from this year promoting fear of Fukushima as people move back to the area –
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1707708483733
The Photographers thermal imaging images in his book - https://www.wallpaper.com/art/giles-price-restricted-residence-book
Article explaining the tests that foods have gone through to determine their safety - https://phys.org/news/2018-08-fukushima-japan-farmers-struggle.html
This article with back up scientific papers (See reference 1 and skip to Lessons Learned to read how quickly most food groups recovered; by April 2012) - https://www.nature.com/news/fukushima-data-show-rise-and-fall-in-food-radioactivity-1.17016
Misleading or false news stories about Japanese Radiation:
Disproving of the Japanese Fish Cancer stories - https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fukushima-radiation-marine-photos/
New Fish Cancer blog from 2018 (THIS ARTICLE CONTAINS MISINFORMATION) - https://www.disclose.tv/bloody-cancerous-tumors-in-fish-seafood-were-eating-fukushima-radiation-342930
A post from September 2019 saying the same thing and using the same pictures - https://www.facebook.com/QuantumWorldAwakenYourMind/photos/a.295030507294942/1654964094634903/?type=3&theater
Liked by 2700 people and shared 2100 times.Alternative news articles about the Radiation – If you click on the links provided you will find most or all of the links do not show what the author Michael Snyder is claiming, there is no indication that it is the result of Fukushima -
https://www.activistpost.com/2013/10/28-signs-that-west-coast-is-being.html
https://www.activistpost.com/2013/10/something-is-killing-life-all-over.html
Studies showing Radioactive spread:
Spread of Radiation through the oceans – Scientific Explanation - https://swfsc.noaa.gov/textblock.aspx?Division=FRD&id=20593
Original study showing the flow of currents (NOTE: Look at the scale on the map provided, just because the colour used is red, does not indicate high or dangerous concentrations. Colour is a tool to show differences.) - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034004
Other Energy Sources:
Sources showing where Renewables are possible:
Global Wind Atlas - https://globalwindatlas.info/
Global Solar Atlas - https://globalsolaratlas.info/
Geothermal Heat Map - https://irena.masdar.ac.ae/gallery/#map/688
Rainfall Map - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.PRCP.MM?view=map
Global Elevation Map - https://mapmaker.nationalgeographic.org/g2dM5g037QL42VJeayApqt/
Renewable Energy Components:
Electric Generators explained - https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/how-electricity-is-generated.php
Solar Power explained - https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/solar/photovoltaics-and-electricity.php
Battery power loss during charging - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217303730
Basic Turbine information (All power except for Photovoltaic is generated through turbines) - https://www.explainthatstuff.com/turbines.html
Pumped-Storage Hydroelectricity - Hydro battery - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity
Renewable Energies Mineral Mining:
Congo – Child mining of Cobalt (Upsetting) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTEVHykWZqk
Largest Cobalt Supplier - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhejiang_Huayou_Cobalt
Congo supplies over 60% of the worlds Cobalt - https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/top-cobalt-producing-countries/
Artisanal Mining - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artisanal_mining
Tesla Model S 3 uses 4.5kg of Cobalt per car, it was 11kg in the first model – It is not a small amount used in a battery - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/05/cutting-cobalt-challenge-battery-industry-electric-cars-congo
The issue is more than just Cobalt, several other minerals face the same issues – Congo is 70% of the worlds Cobalt according to this article – Minerals are used in Solar and Wind renewables technologies - https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/sep/05/most-renewable-energy-companies-claims-mines
Tracker of Human Rights Abuses in mining – Especially good to follow in regards to Renewable Energy components – Best example is viewing Glencore, one of the world’s largest mining corporations, they also have the most current allegations of Human Rights Abuses - https://trackers.business-humanrights.org/transition-minerals/
How Glencore represents themselves – Worth seeing how their suppliers are largely required to self-assess their mining standards with a multi-choice questionnaire - https://www.glencore.com/suppliers/faqs + https://www.glencore.com/who-we-are/our-products-in-life
Glencore middleman company (allegedly) - https://www.umicore.com/en/
Bolivia Coup about Lithium mining – My take on this is that it doesn’t look correct, I may be wrong as I do not know much about the situation - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/morales-claims-orchestrated-coup-tap-bolivia-lithium-191225053622809.html and here is one against this idea - https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/13/coup-morales-bolivia-lithium-isnt-new-oil/
Dams:
Flooded Spanish Town – Drought Effects Dams https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2017/11/spain-town-mansilla-de-la-sierra-reservoir-drought-spd/
Effect of Dam on the environment in Laos - https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-southeast-asia-building-dams-floods-climate-change/
Three Gorges Dam info –
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2006/06/china-three-gorges-dam-how-big/
Three Gorges Dam - https://www.google.com/maps/place/30%C2%B049'34.9%22N+111%C2%B000'25.3%22E/@30.8306525,110.8644855,74505m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m13!1m6!3m5!1s0x368477b3750c94f5:0xacbcac6e2574b3ee!2sThree+Gorges+Dam+Scenic+Area!8m2!3d30.809097!4d111.062576!3m5!1s0x0:0x0!7e2!8m2!3d30.8263582!4d111.0070222
Environmental impacts of the TGD – Most interesting is the huge amount of erosion that has occurred downstream (6.25 million M3 per year before 2002, up to a massive 108.8 million m3 from 2002 to 2010) – Another is the decrease in fish species reducing by 78.2% -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331344288_Three_Gorges_Project_China_Environmental_and_social_impacts
Worldwide declining fish numbers – Mekong River, home to a lot of spent carbon credits, is damming rivers for hydro power, yet over 70% of residents depend on fish. How can we dam the Mekong River to give power, something people currently survive without, at the expense of fish, something the people will struggle to survive without - https://theconversation.com/we-can-have-fish-and-dams-heres-how-61424
How Dams impacted fish species in Canada and North America - https://www.nwcouncil.org/reports/columbia-river-history/damsimpacts
Dam failures and deconstructions:
Conduit Dam Removal – See the effect the dam removal has on the river - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LxMHmw3Z-U
Long form explaining the process of removal and ecological steps - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HES_-dKUE9I
Dam breakthroughs, clickbait video, but does show the power of dams -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdJgpe8oKgc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8mCSjaGbx8
Vajont Dam Disaster in Italy - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkGnnc8Ezlk
Wind Turbines:
Engineering issues of Wind Turbines - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=og2H7ZxkiMA
Maintenance requirements of Wind Turbines - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUjCD-fFU9k
Video Compilation of Wind Turbine failures (Clickbait) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nemy4TD4I3A
General information on Wind Turbines - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_turbine
Facts about Wind Turbines – Approximately 1 in every hundred will have a blade detach - https://www.wind-watch.org/faq-size.php
Current most powerful wind turbine, the GE Haliade-X – Weighs 2,550 tonne including 600 tonne for the Narcella alone - https://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1577816/haliade-x-uncovered-ge-aims-14mw
Wind Turbine Land Use - https://sciencing.com/places-wind-turbines-produce-electricity-5159049.html
Wind farm Fatalities UK -
http://www.caithnesswindfarms.co.uk/accidents.pdf
http://www.windaction.org/posts?location=UK&topic=Injury&type=Article
Wind Turbine Ice Fall - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ms_Np-Cj0eA
Video of Wind Farm Proximity Effects - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7DQ3SgSg0c
Renewable Energy issues:
John Oliver on Infrastructure - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wpzvaqypav8
Banqiao Dam Failure (1975) – Up to 240,000 deaths - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Banqiao_Dam_failure
Why Renewables Won’t Save the World:
Recent Documentary by Michael Moore about the Renewables Industry - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE
Michael Shellenberger (Who I do find to be very well referenced) on Renewables - https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/05/17/if-renewables-are-so-great-for-the-environment-why-do-they-keep-destroying-it/#98460643a1c8
Michael Schellenburger TedX- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciStnd9Y2ak
Michael Schellenburger TedX - https://www.ted.com/talks/michael_shellenberger_how_fear_of_nuclear_power_is_hurting_the_environment/discussion#t-819230
Michael Schellenburger TedX – ‘Why renewables can’t save the planet’ - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-yALPEpV4w
Arsenic in Solar Panels – Dangerous Chemicals in Solar and what that means – Many of these chemicals are found naturally, but concentrations may be higher. Overall, there is a risk, but I am unconvinced about how risky it is. I am settled on the fact that the risks of Nuclear are less than the risks of solar if the aim is high energy production - https://grist.org/article/2010-01-06-solars-dirty-little-secret/
The Hazards of Coal Power:
Energy Sources and Fatalities – 5 Million Deaths due to Air Pollution per year - https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy
Germany shutting down Nuclear Power Plants - https://www.dw.com/en/germany-shuts-down-atomic-plant-as-nuclear-phase-out-enters-final-stretch/a-51845616
Germany will be reliant on Coal long after they shut down the Nuclear plants, possibly they will never kick coal - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/16/climate/germany-coal-climate-change.html
Clean Diesel ‘Volkswagen emissions scandal’ - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal
Many amazing maps and datapoints about CO2 emissions - https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions
Amazing maps and datapoints about energy – Look at NZ per capita energy consumption, it is in the second highest bracket - https://ourworldindata.org/energy#all-charts-preview
Energy Density of Uranium235 (Nuclear Fuel) = 3,900,000MJ/Kg - Energy Density of Coal = 24MJ/Kg -https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Energy_density
3900000/24 = 162500 times more energy (Without including how much energy to mine and transport this fuel)Frances Nuclear Program:
France Nuclear Power Program Summery – 3 Billion Euros profit each year - France generates a 2x2x2m (12m3) of waste per year per plant, currently 17% of Frances power is generated through putting this waste through newer reactors, this is likely to increase - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx
List of buildings larger than all of Frances Nuclear Waste - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_buildings#Largest_usable_volume
Cube Root Calculator - https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/algebra/cuberoots.php
Cost of a Nuclear Power Plant to build is between $6-9 Billion Dollars - http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2016/ph241/keller2/docs/schlissel.pdf
France selling clean energy to neighboring countries - https://www.electricitymap.org/zone/FR
Early in 2003 France's first national energy debate was announced, in response to a "strong demand from the French people", 70% of whom had identified themselves as being poorly informed on energy questions. A poll had shown that 67% of people thought that environmental protection was the single most important energy policy goal. (However, 58% thought that nuclear power caused climate change while only 46% thought that coal burning did so). The debate was to prepare the way for defining the energy mix for the next 30 years in the context of sustainable development at a European and at a global level. - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx
UK buys power from France when everyone turns on their kettle during the ad break - http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2017/05/uk-really-experience-power-surges-soap-operas-finish/
Transport:
Energy use - https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2014/01/10/air-travel-and-energy-use/
Average Distance driven - https://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Research/Documents/9212f97cc0/Drivers-2014-y911-Final-v3.pdf
Energy Efficiency in Transport - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_efficiency_in_transport#Automobiles
Reactor types and Nuclear Power resources:
Inside Bills Brain documentary - https://www.netflix.com/title/80184771
Traveling Wave Reactor - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traveling_wave_reactor
Fast Neutron Reactor - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/fast-neutron-reactors.aspx
Processing of Spent Nuclear Fuel - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/fuel-recycling/processing-of-used-nuclear-fuel.aspx?fbclid=IwAR335llm-Xv2UOy5_PkDI11pG_2BVApUnV5A7Q-NuQrsZY5JNtG1TU5K6nw
MOX fuel (Mixed Oxide Fuel) tested in Russian Fast Neutron Reactor the BN-800 - https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/First-serial-batch-of-MOX-fuel-loaded-into-BN-800?fbclid=IwAR1l2P-niskAgVbmlVNRwE8WzvbZnVy5JqJWllZNmZrISyleObqLTBB0iGA
List of current Nuclear Reactors, energy production and fuel requirements - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/facts-and-figures/world-nuclear-power-reactors-and-uranium-requireme.aspx?fbclid=IwAR3MNBi_0-2uR0rNXX4T8S7XZMfPo-EydX0i81P94fObJSZWsyh7r1FofDs
Amount of used fuel (Nuclear Waste) would be generated by one modern person (Canadian) over their lifetime using a current reactor - https://talknuclear.ca/tag/soda-can/?fbclid=IwAR0zOf2KfN4eMzAQ3LXfy2iixcVnShbCA6quPM_3z7jDSK1Omd5jW1Q2OXI
Amount and class of Nuclear Waste produced by France (2012) - https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/France-details-nuclear-waste-inventory?fbclid=IwAR3giEC8f5SFSVjcr1XN6P4qJGPHUaRcWvMYfoZ5hOO83I2zFCsSY_BCN6o
How Nuclear Waste is stored - https://www.edf.fr/en/edf/radioactive-waste?fbclid=IwAR0dPDk1ZJfcpzQ-EM4laHxcfsIsUgeuY4aCL6SWg5Vt4bbx8f7ZDYcnuYQ
Fairly complicated explanation of Fission Products - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fission_product_yield?fbclid=IwAR0eqYK0q-iPXnwW_pIWyGKU-bB0qhjwj54Ilpt2uQ6s9IsGNbjHqkTCjSo
Explanation of Nuclear Fuel Energy Density - https://whatisnuclear.com/energy-density.html?fbclid=IwAR0eqYK0q-iPXnwW_pIWyGKU-bB0qhjwj54Ilpt2uQ6s9IsGNbjHqkTCjSo
Comparison of Fuel Energy Density - https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Energy_density
Cosmic Origins of Uranium - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/uranium-resources/the-cosmic-origins-of-uranium.aspx
Depleted Uranium explanation - https://www.iaea.org/topics/spent-fuel-management/depleted-uranium
Iran Nuclear Deal – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#Second_enrichment_plant
United Arab Emirates Nuclear Plant Construction - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/united-arab-emirates.aspx
Solar power in the United Arab Emirates - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_Arab_Emirates
LUCA ROMANO NUCLEAR WASTE CALCULATIONS:
I cannot find you the link, so I'll just post you the math.
On the Soda Can link you can find evidence that the total nuclear fuel required by a person (a canadian, so energy consupmtion adequate to european and USA living standards) in a lifetime is 265 cubic centimeters.
Multiply by 10 billion people and you obtain 2650000000000 cubic centimeters, which translates to 265000000 cubic meters.Now we have to factor in the usage of fast breeding reactors, which would reduce fuel consumption by a factor 100, but let's be overly cautious and say that we don't reach the 98% fertile-to-fissile conversion efficiency that the Russians currently claim for the BN800, and let's say that we only reduce fuel consumption by a factor 70: this leaves us with 3,8 millions cubic meters.
The biggest ship by tonnage is the Pioneering Spirit, which is more than 400.000 GT, which equals rougly 1.3 millions cubic meters. You'll need less than three of those to fit in all the radioactive waste of a lifetime of production for canadian living standards for a 10 billion population.
However, this is not the full math yet: we have to factor in that among this waste there are several stable isotopes aswell as isotopes with much shorter lifetime. You can easy check on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fission_product_yield) that only 34% of the fission products have a half-life longer than 1 year. So if the spent fuel is processed and the elements are separated, the final amount of radioactive waste that you'll have to stock for a longer period of time, will be a third of the previous total.
Hence, a single ship.
More proof: https://whatisnuclear.com/energy-density.html
If you consider Europe’s total energy consumption it was roughly 1000 Mtoe, which means 38000 Mtoe for a 10 billion people world that consumes like Europe, which means 4 millions Mtoe of energy consumption for a century.
In MJ that would be 165 millions billions (ten to the 15th power).
Divide by energy density to compute the amount of fuel you need, you’ll find about two billion Kg, or two million tons.Considering the average density of fission products to be 4 tons/cubic meter you’ll find you’ll need 500.000 cubic meters, which is about a single oil tanker.
However, this calculation is generous since it considers possible to split every single atom of fuel, which is not the case. More realistically, you’ll end up with amounts like the ones shown in the previous calculation.
Which is still several order of magnitudes less than the waste generated by any other form of energy.
CONVERSATION THROUGH FACEBOOK
Contact:
Get in touch with Luca Romano through Facebook.
This is an R2S Sustainability Podcast hosted by Hugh Benson. Copyright 2020.
The theme music is by theMakeshift Parachutes–King Eeyore’s Xanax Party.
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Episode 1 Footnotes:
The 'Live Science' article about the Male Frogs Exhibiting as Female Frogs: https://www.livescience.com/10957-pesticide-turns-male-frogs-females.html
Flowable Atrazine purchasable from a New Zealand supplier: https://nufarm.com/nz/product/flowable-atrazine/
The Peppered Moth - A case in Strong Selective Pressure (Called Strong Selective Forces by us in the Podcast): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peppered_moth_evolution
In depth video about the health effects of Pesticides and Herbicides: https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=jWgnkgYtqnw
Information on Copper-Sulphate, one of the 30 Organic Pesticides:
https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/eu-renews-toxic-pesticide-amid-safety-uncertainty/
DDT:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DDT#United_States_ban
WHO Powerpoint (Downloadable) on Pesticides, with good low level introduction:
https://www.who.int/ceh/capacity/Pesticides.pdf
Information on Organic farming, good resource but not completely accurate in my opinion:
https://rodaleinstitute.org/why-organic/organic-farming-practices/pest-management/
I do want to note that Organic is better than conventional farming if it is done correctly, but as long as pesticides are considered an option and are used, then the damage to human and environmental health is still significant. If we follow good farming practices of crop rotation, soil quality etc, then we should be able to move away from pesticides. Note that it will likely come with an increased cost, but with that cost we get a vastly superior product and decreased health impacts, in the long run extending our lives, improving our quality of life and saving on medical bills.Jump on the website at www.R2S.earth.
Get in touch with Emiliano Veronesi through email: Emiliano.Veronesi (at) lincolnuni.ac.nz
This is an R2S Sustainability Podcast hosted by Hugh Benson. Copyright 2020.
The theme music is by the Makeshift Parachutes - King Eeyore's Xanax Party.
-
Episode 1 Footnotes:
The 'Live Science' article about the Male Frogs Exhibiting as Female Frogs: https://www.livescience.com/10957-pesticide-turns-male-frogs-females.html
Flowable Atrazine purchasable from a New Zealand supplier: https://nufarm.com/nz/product/flowable-atrazine/
The Peppered Moth - A case in Strong Selective Pressure (Called Strong Selective Forces by us in the Podcast): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peppered_moth_evolution
In depth video about the health effects of Pesticides and Herbicides: https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=jWgnkgYtqnw
Information on Copper-Sulphate, one of the 30 Organic Pesticides:
https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/eu-renews-toxic-pesticide-amid-safety-uncertainty/
DDT:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DDT#United_States_ban
WHO Powerpoint (Downloadable) on Pesticides, with good low level introduction:
https://www.who.int/ceh/capacity/Pesticides.pdf
Information on Organic farming, good resource but not completely accurate in my opinion:
https://rodaleinstitute.org/why-organic/organic-farming-practices/pest-management/
I do want to note that Organic is better than conventional farming if it is done correctly, but as long as pesticides are considered an option and are used, then the damage to human and environmental health is still significant. If we follow good farming practices of crop rotation, soil quality etc, then we should be able to move away from pesticides. Note that it will likely come with an increased cost, but with that cost we get a vastly superior product and decreased health impacts, in the long run extending our lives, improving our quality of life and saving on medical bills.Jump on the website at www.R2S.earth.
Get in touch with Emiliano Veronesi through email: Emiliano.Veronesi (at) lincolnuni.ac.nz
This is an R2S Sustainability Podcast hosted by Hugh Benson. Copyright 2020.
The theme music is by the Makeshift Parachutes - King Eeyore's Xanax Party.
