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India's RBI just recently has gone *massively* short the US dollar and in the NDF market, too, just to keep the crumbling rupee from sinking even more. This won't work exposing the central bank to losses and also potentially amplifying the downdraft in the currency. A big update on the fundamentals explains.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg India Plows Into NDF Market as It Fights Back Against Dollar
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/india-plows-into-ndf-market-as-it-fights-back-against-dollarBloomberg India’s Growth Shocker Puts Pressure on RBI to Cut Rates
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/india-s-economic-growth-weakens-to-almost-two-year-lowBloomberg India’s Falling Wages Squeeze Urban Middle Class and Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/india-s-falling-wages-squeezes-urban-middle-class-and-economyBloomberg RBI Inquiries on Liquidity Spur Speculation of Action Next Week
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/rbi-inquiries-on-liquidity-spur-speculation-of-action-next-weekhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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An entire batch of corporate reports from retailers to computer-makers, just in time for the key holiday season's critical moment. Each one warning that consumers in the US just aren't there, being held back. Why? The government also reported today with the answer to that question, the one factor that ties it all together.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Inflation-Battered Consumers Are Going to Extreme Lengths to Nab Holiday Deals
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-27/black-friday-deals-in-us-have-been-transformed-by-inflationBloomberg Kohl’s Troubles Deepen as Retailers Call Out Weak Spending
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-26/kohl-s-cuts-sales-outlook-on-weaker-spending-on-clothes-shoesCNBC Retailers saw a dismal fall quarter.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/consumers-retailers-post-election-economic-outlook-rcna181794CNBC HP forecasts first-quarter profit below estimates on sluggish demand in PC market
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/26/hp-earnings-report-q4-2024.htmlBloomberg Dell and HP Inc. Fall After Reporting Disappointing PC Sales
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-26/dell-reports-sales-that-miss-estimates-on-setback-for-pc-markethttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Japan's yen has diverged from other currencies over the past few weeks, strengthening against the dollar. That suggests more carry trading dynamics, an interplay between different versions of them. Yes, there is more than one carry trade and understanding the distinctions is key to getting a sense of possible vulnerabilities here.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards
Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlReuters Explainer: What are Japan's tactics based on latest suspected intervention?
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/what-are-japans-tactics-based-latest-suspected-intervention-2024-07-18BIS Bulletin The market turbulence and carry trade unwind of August 2024
https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull90.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Several critical financial measures continue to drop, reaching rather obscene comparisons. At first, that doesn't seem to make any sense; how would today be seen as similar to February 2009, for example. However difficult the economy is now, it certainly isn't that bad. What these measures are indicating go beyond specific moments, instead providing clues about a progression.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards
Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Is the bond selloff over? What caused it in the first place? With European rates, in particular, heading lower on recession (more than) risks, the tendency of Treasuries to converge with them raises the chances yields may not have much farther to go if they aren't topped out already. Given the fundamental background, it appears to be a matter of time more than anything.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
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The European situation is getting to be truly serious. And that means growing problems for...the dollar. Not the exchange value against other currencies, rather why that exchange value is rising and how trouble in Europe means trouble in global money. European banks have been back in a big way at the black hole's center.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
President Ford Economic Report to Congress 1975
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/sites/default/files/books/presidential-documents-archive-guidebook/the-economic-report-of-the-president-truman-1947-obama-2017/1975.pdfECB Financial Stability Review
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/fsr/ecb.fsr202411~dd60fc02c3.en.pdfECB Euro area banks as intermediators of US dollar liquidity via repo and FX swap markets
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/focus/2024/html/ecb.fsrbox202411_04~9a4d04b582.en.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
China and Japan selling record amounts of Treasuries. Do they hate the dollar? Donald Trump? You and me? Not only will we answer the questions, while those countries saw huge selling of USTs, curiously the Cayman Islands got a truly massive deposit of them and it showed up during July, August and September. Seems very carry trade-y.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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A double whammy on US consumers. First, the government issued an alarming update to the biggest jobs data there is. Then retail giant Target stunned with its Q3 results and more so its guidance for Q4. The thing is, both of those are related; two sides of the macro coin. The one says the summer started really badly, the other it didn't get better.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Reuters Target raises 2024 profit forecast as price cuts draw shoppers
https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/target-raises-annual-profit-forecast-after-price-cuts-boost-quarterly-sales-2024-08-21/CNBC Target shares plunge 20% after discounter cuts forecast, posts biggest earnings miss in two years
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/20/target-tgt-q3-2024-earnings.htmlBloomberg Target Shares Tumble After Retailer Cuts Profit Outlook
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-20/target-tgt-trims-profit-outlook-on-inventory-buildup-higher-costsCNN As Americans bargain shop, six-figure earners flock to Walmart
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/investing/walmart-stock-earnings/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Warren Buffett continues to sell tens of billions worth of stocks. Everyone wants to know why. This divergence between major stock index most likely holds the answer. Normally stock indexes don't mean much beyond their beauty, yet they can be important signals at times like now when they do diverge in such an obvious and sustained way. This is a key cyclical one, too.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Berkshire Hathaway’s cash fortress tops $300 billion as Buffett sells more stock, freezes buybacks
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/02/berkshire-hathaways-cash-fortress-tops-300-billion-as-buffett-sells-more-stock-freezes-buybacks.htmlFranklin-Templeton
https://www.franklintempleton.com/articles/equity-markets/the-foundry-quandary-owning-semis-late-in-the-cycleDeloitte Industry Outlook
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/technology-media-and-telecommunications/articles/semiconductor-industry-outlook.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The Federal Reserve reported a sharp rise in delinquencies, especially credit cards and auto loans. That wasn't all, as the New York branches also showed record high rejections strongly indicating where things really stand in the credit cycle. As a result, we have to pay some attention to CRTs, otherwise known as SRTs, the latest financial engineering akin to the 2020s version of credit default swaps.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FRBNY Household Debt and Credit Report Q3 2024
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.htmlBloomberg Ally Auto Borrowers With 2022 Loans Now Struggling, CFO Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-07/ally-auto-borrowers-with-2022-loans-now-struggling-cfo-saysBloomberg Ally’s Charge-Offs, Bad-Loan Provisions Beat Expectations
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-17/auto-lender-ally-reports-stronger-than-expected-debt-managementFederal Reserve Frequently Asked Questions about Regulation Q
https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/legalinterpretations/reg-q-frequently-asked-questions.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Another retailer finds out the 2021 "recovery" was mostly an illusion. Prices may have soared and revenues looking good, it didn't last because it couldn't. As the company closes hundreds of stores and prepares to lay off an unknown number of workers, more stats show this is no isolated case. The cycle continues and continues to take its toll on businesses and workers alike.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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The yen and the euro are good currency indicators of global monetary conditions, but there are a couple even better and more consistent signals. When the 'dollar' goes up and these two are taking the hit because of it, that's when you really need to pay attention. It's not Trump, Jay Powell, interest rates or just random chance.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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The dollar index jumped to a more than two-year high leaving everyone to ask why. Some say Trump, others the Fed. They might as well have said it was Burger King (who blames Wendy's). Though the dollar is rising here in the short run, to really understand what's going on you have to consider more than just developments in November 2024. This has been in the works for several years.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Reuters US dollar continues uptrend as Fed policy provides lift
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-over-two-month-high-yen-near-150dlr-2024-10-15/Bloomberg Wall Street Sees Dollar Soaring More, But Splits on How Much
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-12/dollar-s-trump-fueled-rally-unites-wall-street-on-bullish-betshttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
After Germany's governing coalition collapsed last week, the country's ZEW added more solid evidence about why that was. The ZEW also collapsed into November. That's not just about Germany since the "zoo" is really what the rest of the world looks like from the German perspective. That also has a lot to say about the ongoing Treasury selloff (just like April).
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ZEW November 2024
https://www.zew.de/en/press/latest-press-releases/falling-economic-expectations-after-trump-victoryBloomberg German Investor Confidence Slumps on Political Strife, Trump Win
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-12/german-investor-confidence-slumps-on-political-strife-trump-winhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The economic challenges the incoming Trump administration is facing are far and away greater than those confronted in 2016. From the cyclical standpoint, 2024 has far more in common with 2001. While structurally, there's nothing close to this in generations. Amidst the election euphoria there needs to be sober analysis.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Repo fails jumped by 50% in the latest weekly data, which just so happens to be the same week swap spreads plunged to record lows. It was also when the US economy, at least its labor data, took a turn for the worse. Understanding the connections between all these money and macro indications is critical.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Financial Times New York Fed examines banks’ role in money market turmoil
https://www.ft.com/content/83a5bb70-dbca-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17FOMC Chair Powell Press Conference Transcript October 2019
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20191030.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Credit card usage isn't really about spending. Americans use their credit cards when they're confident about jobs and incomes. The latest data from the Fed contains a more serious warning especially how it lines up with jobs and income data...and the Fed's actions.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Is there era of massive government "stimulus" finally over? Bonds are certain it is. The Chinese are doing their best to make sure that's the result, in large part because they don't know what to do. That much is becoming clear and the implications are already going global. Just ask anyone with oil.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg China Unveils $1.4 Trillion Debt Swap, Saves Stimulus for Trump
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-08/china-unveils-839-billion-debt-swap-to-rescue-local-governmentsBloomberg China Debt Plan Underwhelms Bond Market Betting on More Stimulus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-08/china-bond-market-eyes-fiscal-plans-from-key-legislative-meetinghttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Germany's government is the latest casualty of the "vibecession." Amid a flurry of political activity, the markets throw up another major warning with the first ever negative swap spread. Predictably, the mainstream media can't make sense of swaps, the situation, or the economics. It's the economy, stupid.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Germany’s Government Puts Itself Out of Its Misery
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-07/germany-s-coalition-government-puts-itself-out-of-its-miseryBloomberg Fear of German Debt Binge Flips Key Market Gauge for First Time
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-07/fear-of-german-debt-binge-flips-key-market-gauge-for-first-timeBloomberg Scholz Sees Germany Riding Out War in Ukraine Without Recession
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-01-17/german-chancellor-olaf-scholz-on-2023-economic-outlook-war-in-ukrainehttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Huge moves, major negatives, and record declines for one of the most critical pieces of the entire global system. While election euphoria has gripped certain financial markets, this one is doing the opposite. It is a key warning about where everything stands before even considering whether or not Trump's victory changes anything.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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