Episoder
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Despite last week's well-received reactionary pod to the latest CPI inflation data, Nick and Kelvin can't help but dig a bit deeper into the data to get a steer on where things, in particular the OCR, are going.
Other topics this week include the CoreLogic monthly chart pack, which focussed on borrowers preference to fix their mortgages short as well as the patchy nature of this recovery.
That patchiness, and arguably weakness was backed up by the release of the REINZ index and sales tracking.
On the flip side of all the negativity, Kelvin reports that early calcs from the NZAC indicate we may have re-exited the recession, but we all know high net migration (new data on that front too) has a large part to play in that too.
Lastly, there's a mention of the CCCFA announcement - not much detail to analyse and even less impact likely, due to high interest rates being the key constraint on funding lines right now.
Check out the monthly video and Kelvin's appearance on Tova O'Brien's Stuff podcast.
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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released CPI inflation data.
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Mangler du episoder?
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After quickly passing over the latest OCR decision from the RBNZ and one more construction release to add to last week's construction heavy chat, Nick and Kelvin delve into the current and future rental market.
There's rental price change to discuss, the reversal of some tenancy laws and the latest buyer classification data to assist.
Add in a bit on the economy and inflation ahead of the Q1 CPI data out this week and you've got a comprehensive review of the market. All in less than 40 mins.
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The dominant theme this week is construction – from the Cordell Construction Cost Index showing subdued cost growth to start 2024, through to new dwelling consents in February (still falling), to Stats NZ’s experimental dataset looking at completion timeframes and the number of code compliance certificates issued (dwelling completions) – we have it all!
Not only that, but the Government also announced its intention to allow more imported building products to be used in NZ dwellings, with the aim of controlling cost pressures.
The guys also cover off last week’s CoreLogic House Price Index for March, and filled jobs data for February – both releases were a little mixed.
It’s another busy one this week too, with more mortgage lending data due, along with CoreLogic’s Buyer Classification figures and Stats NZ rent figures for March. The Reserve Bank will top it off with another cash rate decision on Wednesday, which is likely to be no change at 5.5%.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
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Coming to you on Easter Monday, Nick and Kelvin catch up to discuss the week that was in the property market. Starting off with Kelvin's latest article, analysing the new build premium (using the CoreLogic Market Trends dataset).
In macro-economic news, Kelvin rounds up the latest lending data from the RBNZ, including the flow of loans and state of terms left on total stock. There's also consumer and business confidence survey data to digest, which was likely affected by confirmation of the recession, proving we all pay attention to the media headlines.
Plus, what was up with the RBNZ Governor, Adrian Orr's media appearance, seemingly paving the way for rate cuts?
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This week it's all about the economy (outside of a bit of Sail GP chat of course), after the release of the GDP data for Q4 last year confirmed we're officially back in a recession, the second time in a year for the classic double dip. What does it all mean though and what does the more timely NZAC tell us about how 2024 has started?
Kelvin also speaks about the CoreLogic release of the monthly chart pack, where the property investor situation was a core focus.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also paid a visit to the CoreLogic offices recently, as part of their usual fact finding mission to put together their latest Article IV report. Taxes once again were a topic of interest - with housing in the spotlight.
The lingering question though is how and when could we really see a fundamental shift in the NZ tax system? Following the leader of the opposition, Chris Hipkins opening the door on capital gains/wealth/land taxes again over the weekend though, perhaps it's sooner than we'd originally thought?
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The main release last week was the CoreLogic Mapping the Market data - a suburb-level view of median values and change over time. Kelvin offers up the insights from the update and some of the conversations that it sparked with the media.
Then from the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series, Nick and Kelvin discuss the early signs of first home buyers facing a bit more competition from other buyers - particularly multiple property owners, but will it last?
Elsewhere, Kelvin wraps the macro economic data from Stats NZ, namely migration and rental figures, plus there's the REINZ house price index to analyse, including a couple of larger centres where values fell in February.
Plus, check out the CoreLogic NZ Youtube page for the latest monthly video.
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On this guest episode Nick speaks with Joanie Rankin, Mobile Mortgage Manager at Westpac.
Joanie has been a Mobile Mortgage Manager (MMM) for 3 years but has been in the home lending industry for 6 years. Joanie has been with Westpac for 9 years now in various customer facing/service roles and has an in-depth knowledge across several fields of banking. Joanie is very passionate and finds it hugely rewarding to help people into their first homes and loves being a part of their home buying journey.
In the podcast Nick and Joanie really hone in on the first home buying experience - how triple M's help navigate the daunting and sometimes complex process and also some of the specific assistance that Westpac offer (including for Māori and Iwi).
What are some of the misconceptions people have when wanting to buy their own home and similarly what are some of the myths people hold on to when it comes to dealing direct with the bank? Those are just a couple of questions Joanie answers in a conversation that should be a 'must-listen' for all aspiring first home buyers.
For more information about Westpac first home buyer assistance, their MMMs, and how they can help, visit their website westpac.co.nz
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Confirmation over the weekend of the reinstatement of interest deductibility for property investors is the key feature for today's podcast. It was a busy Sunday and Monday morning for Kelvin especially, as journos scramble to cover the Government release.
Details were as expected but the focus was on the potential implications? What could it mean for rental supply, rental prices and even new build commitments? Nick and Kelvin work through it all to get your week started.
Outside of that, there's the fourth annual Women & Property report to cover and the latest RBNZ stats on the terms selected by mortgage borrowers recently.
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This week, to coincide with International Women's Day 2024, Nick speaks to an incredible, award winning leader within the banking and finance industry, Amanda Young.
Amanda is an accomplished leader with an impressive 30+ year background in distribution across Personal and Business Banking, and Insurance.
Amanda is known for her ability to implement solutions and remove complexity, while improving the performance of large teams. Amanda’s engaging and collaborative approach to problem solving has contributed to her success. Since stepping into the Head of Third Party Distribution role, Amanda advocates for the adviser industry within ASB and is motivated by continuous improvement to make a positive difference for our advisers and their customers.
Listen in to hear about Amanda's incredible experience, leadership lessons (including staying in the Softball 'Strike zone') and her advice for future leaders.
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This week the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement and OCR call are in the spotlight. Though most of the market expected the OCR to stay flat, ANZ's surprising recent forecast of two more increases caused a bit of doubt among commentators, and in the end the RBNZ probably softened their stance more than most expected. No one is getting carried away though, with the OCR to remain suitably contractionary for a while yet.
Meanwhile our HPI for Feb was released, with growth continuing to moderate and inconsistency across the country continuing to feature.
The release did however lead to some headline grabbing stuff from Newshub, after Kelvin politely disagreed with ex-PM John Key's assertion that house prices will double in the next 10-years. Needless to say Nick took the opportunity to stir the pot a bit!
Elsewhere Minister Bishop's plans to flood the market with developable land seem laudable but a bit optimistic - certainly conversation starting especially when combined with hopes to drag the house price to income ratio back towards 4.
Plenty to dig into for the start of the week - and there'll be more to come later in the week with International Women's Day on the horizon.
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Clearly the hottest topic this week is whether or not the Reserve Bank will raise the official cash rate at 2pm Wednesday (28th February). The guys give their takes on this issue, and ultimately, even if the OCR isn’t increased this week, a further rise down the track remains a possibility. Inflation isn’t dead yet!
Meanwhile, the discussion of recent data is focused on our latest NZ Housing Chart Pack, which highlighted a very slow start to the year for property sales activity, and the NZ Activity Index for January – which suggested that the economy is ‘ticking over’; good for jobs, but might underpin some inflation and interest rate pressure.
Also upcoming this week in terms of data: mortgage lending for January, filled jobs, ANZ business and consumer confidence, and new dwelling consents. Generally, the tone of these figures should be slightly positive, although the slide in dwelling consents is obviously a bit more concerning.
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Quite a bit of the data over the past week has reiterated the idea that this recovery, while ongoing, could prove to be patchy/variable/uneven – or whichever synonym you like.
According to the latest CoreLogic Report, affordability has improved on some measures since 2021, but not on others – e.g. mortgage payments as a % of gross average household income are still 49%. And most measures actually got a little worse again in Q4 2023 as house prices started to rise.
Recent data on property sales volumes backs up the ‘patchiness’ theme, with activity across agent-led and private deals, only 2% higher in January than the same month in 2023 – which was itself a 40-year low for that month of the year. Clearly, volumes remains soft.
Meanwhile, net migration remains high (albeit easing), and this is pressuring the supply/demand balance for tenants, pushing up rents.
The guys also looked at the latest stats on debt to income ratios and found ‘more of the same’ – DTIs are currently under control, thanks to high mortgage rates.
This week, it’s reasonably quiet for data releases, only watching for the NZ Activity Index for January on Thursday. It might be ‘middle of the road’.
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At face value, a rise in unemployment could never be a good thing …. but as the guys discuss this week, it’s a bit more nuanced than that.
For a start, last week’s rise in the unemployment rate wasn’t driven by job losses, but instead a larger increase in the pool of available workers. And a 4% unemployment rate is still very low anyway. Those are the ‘good’ things.
But on the flipside, could the smaller-than-expected rise in unemployment actually lead to another increase in the official cash rate? Increased employment supports the property market, but another OCR rise would be a potential headwind.
Meanwhile, this week’s episode also covers the latest CoreLogic Pain & Gain Report for Q4 2023, showing early signs of a turning point for property resale performance. Buyer Classification for January is also discussed, as well as the data for December showing that most people are choosing to fix their mortgages for shorter periods.
There was also good news in the form of the latest National Construction Pipeline Report, which suggested that the current slowdown in new dwelling consents (and future construction activity) isn’t likely to reach the depths of the post-GFC episode. That’s positive in terms of reducing the risk of housing supply shortages.
This week, look out for the latest CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report, REINZ January figures, December net migration, January rent prices, and Q4 DTI stats.
Our new, monthly article series for Trademe is also discussed, and can be seen here.
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This week, Nick chats to Paulette Trotter, director and advisor at Loan Market Auckland, who was the number 1 mortgage advisor in NZ in 2023.
Paulette's experience in the industry is vast and hugely successful. In this discussion Paulette discusses how the property market has kicked off in 2024, with first home buyers remaining a consistent presence.
She speaks about some of the differences across the Auckland market, including interest in new build properties and the relative importance of tax changes and interest rates to potential property investors.
Nick and Paulette also discuss the roles and influence of both the new Government and the RBNZ, including the proposed debt-to-income limits and loosening of the loan to value ratio restrictions.
Lastly, Paulette offers up a few keys to success for her and her team Loan Market and a few tidbits of advice for good measure too.
Contact Paulette at:
https://adviser.loanmarket.co.nz/paulette-trotter
P: 021 820 473
E: [email protected]Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
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The guys kick off this week’s discussion with a look at our house price index for January, which showed a smaller rise in values (0.4%) than in both November and December. With mortgage rates still pretty high, a mixture of weaker and stronger months for property values shouldn’t be a surprise. So then it’s just a choice of which adjective/synonym to use to describe patchiness!
Two other notable items last week were Andrew Bayly’s announcement that the Government will be looking to loosen the CCCFA rules again over the next few months – adding to some impetus for the property market – but also Paul Conway’s (RBNZ Chief Economist) speech which poured cold water on the idea that the official cash rate might be cut soon.
Elsewhere, mortgage lending activity continues to rise from a low base, consumer and business confidence are generally trending higher (but not consistently), while dwelling consents are still falling – and HUD was in the news for suggesting that the annual total, currently 37,000, could dip to around 32,000.Coming up this week – big labour market news (unemployment rate likely to be higher but due to more workers not job losses), mortgage lending by the term of the loan chosen, and CoreLogic’s Buyer Classification figures for January.
All in all, plenty to discuss – oh, and the cricket at Bay Oval too.
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More heat across the country and plenty of data to talk about this week too, starting with the latest inflation figures for Q4 2023.
The CPI/inflation trend is definitely in the right direction, but with domestic/non-tradable prices such as rents and council rates still a bit problematic, the OCR isn’t likely to be cut in the near term. But cuts are possibly on the cards for the second half of the year, with some falls in shorter term fixed mortgage rates also likely.
With the dust settling on the RBNZ’s announcement about LVRs and DTIs, Nick and Kelvin also give a quick update this week, which reiterates that there could be a net boost to property activity around the middle of the year, but also that borrowers who are currently above the DTI limits shouldn’t panic – the rules aren’t retrospective.
Plenty of other data to cover too – including last week’s December NZ Activity Index (ok-ish), and then this week’s filled jobs for December (Monday), mortgage lending for December (Monday), foreign buyers for Q4 (Tuesday), ANZ business confidence (Wed.) and consumer confidence (Fri.) for January, and new dwelling consents for December (Friday). All to be covered in detail next week!
Also check out our latest Housing Chart Pack, highlighting the strong market share for first home buyers in 2023.
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This week Nick and Kelvin kick off with a discussion of the latest CoreLogic House Price Index, which went out in the same week as the REINZ and QV measures. The guys discuss the results from our index, as well as some of the similarities and differences between all the measures, some which were highlighted in a Stuff explainer article.
Last week also saw Stats NZ release the latest migration and rent price data – which generally showed further strength (especially for rents), although there are some caveats to note with the latest migration result.
Being recorded on Tuesday (rather than usual Monday, due to Wellington Anniversary), this also allowed the guys to comment ‘hot off the press’ on the Reserve Bank’s latest DTI and LVR consultation. In a nutshell, DTIs are still on track for the middle of the year, with LVRs set to be loosened a bit at the same time. Even more detail to come over the next week in written form and our next podcast.
There’s also a preview of the upcoming NZ Activity Index, and of course the Q4 inflation figures – a very important release!
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We're back for 2024 and it's straight into a look back at data releases so far this year.
Firstly the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) for Q4 2023 showed cost inflation is moderating (not declining) and with building consent data for November to also discuss there's a bit of time given to preview the health and prospects for the construction industry.
Jobs growth data from Stats NZ is also reviewed - still a key underpinning factor for the housing market, while the latest RBNZ release looks at the terms borrowers chose in November.
Additionally December's Buyer Classification data shows first home buyers didn't take a break prior to Christmas picking up a close-to-record 27% of sales over the month.
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In rounding out the year, there's coverage of the Best of the Best report, the upcoming chart pack and the now-live monthly video.
Plus, amongst a number of data releases there were a couple of RBNZ papers to discuss.
Topics covered today:
MigrationRental price growthGDP economic data for Q3REINZ HPISales volumesLoan-to-valuation ratio (LVR) regulationsDebt-to-income (DTI) restrictionsPlus, Nick joined The Weekend Collective Radio Show on Saturday for their regular one our property focus on Newstalk ZB.
Have a safe and relaxing summer break, see you back on Monday the 15th of January.
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- Se mer
