Episodes
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This week, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss the pod shop hedge fund model, market cycles, AI pricing models, and the future of AI-generated content, with Byrne offering insights on hedge fund evolution, the current market environment, and AI's impact on entertainment and society.
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🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
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Highlights from the Episode:
Pod shop hedge fund model has evolved to focus on delivering uncorrelated returns rather than just beating market indices, with sophisticated risk management and factor-neutral strategies.
Current market conditions suggest we may be entering a period where even as companies grow, stock prices may lag due to multiple compression and slower growth expectations.
AI pricing models face interesting constraints around liability and human oversight, with potential ceiling prices influenced by existing enterprise software like Bloomberg terminals.
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SPONSORS:
📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) -
This week, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss AI's economic implications, the rise of passive investing, gambling markets, and Warren Buffett's early investment tactics, examining how technological advancements shape economic metrics, market dynamics, and industry shifts.
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🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
---
Highlights from the Episode:
AI's economic impact may follow a J-curve pattern - initially deflationary as it reduces costs, but potentially inflationary later through increased monetization and energy consumption
Passive investing's dominance has natural limits, as price discovery requires active trading, suggesting a possible future cyclical pattern between passive and active investing
The gambling industry's evolution may parallel historical vice industries, potentially leading to new social norms and self-regulation before government intervention
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SPONSORS:
📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) -
Missing episodes?
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This week, Erik and Byrne discuss the impact of technological change on markets, debate the feasibility of Argentine-style economic policies in the U.S., discuss government efficiency, payroll costs, and political dynamics, including the potential economic effects of a Trump administration and strategies of figures like Elon Musk and Sam Altman. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/da0b923d-7d50-4459-b8e9-d0bf87710da7
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🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
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RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
🎙️ Unpack Pricing - Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg
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SPONSORS:
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/econ102
📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) -
On this week’s episode of The Riff, explore the impact of technological change on markets and businesses, discussing economic bubbles, the future of AI, the post-election political landscape, and Byrne's upcoming book Boom, which examines the role of bubbles in infrastructure development. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/44975e08-681b-484a-9f8f-64588f17da2f
—
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
—
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
🎙️ Unpack Pricing - Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg
---
SPONSORS:
📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
Byrne's book: https://www.amazon.com/Boom-Bubbles-Stagnation-Byrne-Hobart/dp/1953953476
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) -
This week, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart explore the evolving landscape of heretical ideas, election dynamics, AI and crypto’s market impacts, prediction markets, the shifting Overton window, contrarian perspectives, and trends in housing and smaller social networks. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/77be6b84-0f55-4dcc-9dd1-c69341272e2e
---
📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
---
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
🎙️ Unpack Pricing - Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg
---
SPONSORS:
📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) -
In this special episode of The Riff, Erik Torenberg and Patrick McKenzie explore the evolving landscape of tech journalism, media narratives about the tech industry, and how the industry is increasingly telling its own story. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/2dab4f2e-f8b1-410b-9bc4-b4a9b137c22f
📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
---
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
🎙️ Unpack Pricing - Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg
---
SPONSORS:
📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
---
X / TWITTER:
https://x.com/patio11 (Patrick)
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) -
In this episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart discusses his upcoming book about financial bubbles, venture scale businesses, creator financing, and prediction markets. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/d084ef81-e3cd-41b2-be04-b6fc2bbe3f7a
📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
---
SPONSORS:
📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
Byrne's book: https://www.stripe.press/boom
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) -
In this special episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart is joined by Patrick McKenzie, host of the podcast Complex Systems to discuss a range of topics including app business models, restaurant industry economics, AI's impact on productivity, the evolution of search technologies and more.
🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/
---
RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️ Complex Systems
Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11/id1753399812
🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast
---
SPONSORS:
📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)
https://x.com/patio11 (Patrick)
---
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(01:08) Economics of free-to-play games
(09:45) High spenders and VIP systems
(12:13) Misconceptions about industry economics
(13:22) Spending patterns
(15:46) Airline industry
(20:51) Custom software and high-end services
(24:17) Sponsor: Carta
(25:06) Evolution of restaurant websites
(33:57) Role of platforms in restaurant business
(41:33) Strategic moves in food distribution
(43:53) Restaurant groups and concepts
(47:39) Economics of business meals
(53:33) Value of free company food
(01:03:37) Role of LLMs in research and writing
(01:12:04) Future of LLMs and human interaction
(01:23:44) Wrap -
This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the shifting dynamics of careers and education, the notion of "auto-paternalism" in organizational choices, Spotify's growth strategy in a mature market, the future of podcasts and audio content, and the intricate relationship between AI art, property rights and more.
🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/
---
RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast
---
SPONSORS:
BRAVE: Get first-party targeting with Brave’s private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “Turpentine” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)
---
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:27) Career advantages
(05:00) Young entrepreneurs today
(09:38) Money and legitimacy
(17:57) Sponsor: Brave
(18:59) Education and critical thinking
(27:34) Disrupting higher education
(39:25) Auto paternalism in organizations
(48:13) Spotify's market strategy
(53:39) AI art and property rights
(57:07) Wrap -
This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg dive into a range of fascinating topics such as the evolution and future of OpenAI's business model, economic rationale behind corporate buybacks, changing software economics, China's recent equity market surge and more.
🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/
---
RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast
---
SPONSORS:
BRAVE: Get first-party targeting with Brave’s private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “Turpentine” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)
---
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:20) Role of competition in tech
(03:57) ByteDance and the music streaming market
(08:15) OpenAI's business model evolution
(19:05) Sponsor: Brave
(20:07) Future of OpenAI and AI regulation
(27:56) Understanding interest rates and treasury bonds
(30:58) Corporate buybacks
(37:05) Software economics and growth strategies
(45:38) China's economic strategies and market impact
(50:49) Predicting market movements with headlines
(54:15) Wrap -
This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss cult stocks like Tesla and Palantir, debate whether AI or globalization will impact jobs more, explore the energy transition's unexpected reversal, analyze Forbes' content strategy and more.
🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/
---
RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast
---
SPONSORS:
BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/zen
BRAVE: Get first-party targeting with Brave’s private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “Turpentine” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)
---
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:20) Understanding cult stocks
(05:48) ESG investing
(09:21) Viability of stock-based social networks
(16:53) Vertical social network
(19:43) Sponsors: Babbel | Brave
(22:08) Role of tick sizes in financial markets
(29:03) Tech stocks and market timing
(36:24) Job losses: AI vs. Globalization
(41:11) Energy transition in reverse
(45:49) Forbes' business model and media strategy
(52:00) Power of lists in media
(01:00:01) Wrap -
This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg tackle the current state of the EU's tech sector, evolution of private equity firms, consumer credit defaults, online reputation management and more.
🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/
---
RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast
---
SPONSORS:
BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/zen
BRAVE: Get first-party targeting with Brave’s private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “Turpentine” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
Will The EU Choose to Compete?: https://www.thediff.co/archive/will-the-eu-choose-to-compete/
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)
---
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:27) Current state of the EU tech industry
(07:21) Degrowth and economic progress
(12:12) Competent bureaucracy and government services
(18:24) Javier Milei, Vivek, and Trump
(25:06) Sponsor: Babbel | Brave
(27:32) Consumer confidence and economic perceptions
(30:48) Deflation and credit creation
(42:45) The Evolution of Private Equity
(50:21) Online Reputation Management
(54:50) Wrap -
This week, Byrne and Erik discuss the efficiency of market hypothesis, explores the complexities of breaking up big tech companies, unpacks the intriguing dynamics of currencies from nations to video game gems and more.
🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/
---
RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast
---
SPONSORS:
BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/zen
BRAVE: Get first-party targeting with Brave’s private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “Turpentine” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
Big Tech as a Fleet Rather than an Aircraft Carrier: https://www.thediff.co/archive/big-tech-as-a-fleet-rather-than-an-aircraft-carrier/
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)
---
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:20) Market efficiency
(02:33) Big tech's strategic investments
(12:11) Efficient market hypothesis
(16:52) Big tech as a fleet
(27:16) Sponsors: Babbel | Brave
(29:42) Role and impact of currencies
(39:03) Concept of personal tokens
(43:17) Diversification vs. Concentration in investments
(50:09) Pod model in hedge funds
(54:25) Wrap -
This week, Byrne and Erik discuss the idea of taxing unrealized capital gains, networked nature of the finance industry, the strategic direction of Uber in autonomous vehicles, the merits of 'founder mode' and more.
🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/
---
RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast
---
SPONSORS:
BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/zen
BRAVE: Get first-party targeting with Brave’s private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “Turpentine” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)
---
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:21) Taxing unrealized gains
(08:57) Economic theories on taxation and consumption
(12:40) Role of taxation in government spending
(15:23) Impact of taxation on the startup ecosystem
(22:58) Sponsors: Babbel | Brave
(25:23) Real estate and mortgage market insights
(31:00) Introduction to pod shops
(37:38) Uber's autonomous vehicle strategy
(45:57) Valuing companies: Cash flow vs. Dividends
(51:04) Nominal GDP targeting and economic policy
(55:34) Implications of founder mode
(59:26) Wrap -
On this week’s episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the Silicon Valley Canon, impact of tech on traditional markets, the evolution of smart contracts, risks of currency carry trades and more.
🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/
---
RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast
---
SPONSORS:
BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/zen
BRAVE: Get first-party targeting with Brave’s private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “Turpentine” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
Longreads + Open Thread: https://www.thediff.co/archive/longreads-open-thread-90/
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)
---
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:26) Silicon Valley Canon
(05:45) Silicon Valley's intellectual evolution
(08:52) Who is leading Silicon Valley’s intellectual influence?
(14:41) Variance of Mission-Driven Companies
(19:50) Shareholder activism and private equity strategies
(28:30) Sponsors: Babbel | Brave
(30:57) Understanding extreme stock returns
(35:38) Retailers and the ad business
(39:14) Walmart's membership strategy
(42:38) Environmental impact of data centers
(47:01) Oracle problem in smart contracts
(52:39) Currency carry trade
(57:28) Ryan Breslow's controversial deal
(01:00:15) Wrap -
On this week’s episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss tricky antitrust decisions, Balaji’s Network State, the dynamics of content moderation, and more.
🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj
---
RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast
---
SPONSORS:
BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/zen
BRAVE: Get first-party targeting with Brave’s private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “Turpentine” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)
---
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:23) Paradox of antitrust in tech
(03:00) Consumer welfare vs. market dominance
(09:48) Lina Khan
(13:29) Sponsors: Babbel | Brave
(15:53) Corporate social responsibility and privatization
(20:28) AI trust and the impact of fake content
(26:48) Technical inputs into AI
(31:40) Absurdity heuristic
(32:24) Exploring intangible capital
(39:05) Network States and organizational challenges
(48:13) Politics and social media dynamics
(55:34) Conservative and progressive elites
(01:00:26) Wrap -
This week, Byrne and Erik discuss Meta’s open source strategy, Google’s hiring of Character.AI’s CEO, the calculus behind the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and more.
🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj
---
RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast
---
SPONSORS:
BRAVE: Get first-party targeting with Brave’s private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “Turpentine” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)
---
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:25) Meta's open source AI strategy
(07:42) Google's acquisition of Character.AI
(12:20) Sponsors: Brave
(13:49) Reddit's data deal with Google
(16:40) Strategic Petroleum Reserve Management
(20:26) Andrew Left's activist shorting troubles
(27:46) Job compensation and revenue generation
(33:39) Amazon's logistics and growth strategy
(36:57) Amazon's historical reinvestment strategy
(42:27) Amazon's culture drift and leadership
(46:50) Specialized vs Consolidated AI models
(52:05) Outro -
This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg are joined by Omar Shams, the founder of Mutable AI, for a deep dive into Omar’s great piece, The AI Organization. In this conversation, they explore the potential of AI to transform organizational productivity, the limitations of financial metrics in GDP, and AI's role in political processes and societal structures.
🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj
---
RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast
---
SPONSORS:
BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://babbel.com/torenberg
BRAVE: Get first-party targeting with Brave’s private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “Turpentine” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
The AI Organization, part I: https://blog.mutable.ai/p/the-ai-organization-part-i
The First Org Chart Ever Made Is a Masterpiece of Data Design: https://www.wired.com/2014/03/stunningly-complex-organization-chart-19th-century/
---
X / TWITTER:
https://x.com/smahsramo (Omar)
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)
---
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:20) Historical context of technological adoption
(02:40) The AI Organization
(06:10) Economic theories and AI
(11:55) Capitalism vs. Communism
(16:00) Sponsor: Babbel | Brave
(17:28) Role of AI in future economies
(18:51) AI's impact on company sizes
(24:10) AI and political influence
(29:50) Effect of AI on legal services
(31:55) Complexity of GDP and human preferences
(41:57) Future of Work and AI Integration
(54:24) AI adoption in various sectors
(01:03:56) Outro -
This week, Byrne Hobart is joined by Patrick McKenzie (patio11), host of the podcast Complex Systems, to discuss the complexity and endless fascination of financial infrastructures, the role of fraud in finance, talent spotting strategies and the importance of building networks.
🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj
---
SPONSORS:
BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://babbel.com/torenberg
BEEHIIV: Head to beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months
---
RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining
Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies.
Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034
-
📈 ECON 102 W/ NOAH SMITH - Keeping econ entertaining - Noahpinion author Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg break down business news and politics every week.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
Patrick's Newsletter: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/
---
X / TWITTER:
https://x.com/patio11 (Patrick)
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)
---
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:20) Historical origins of financial products
(01:22) Old infrastructure in finance
(05:02) Security vs Usability trade-off
(10:49) Trust dynamics in finance
(11:58) High-trust vs Low-trust environments
(15:26) Market dynamics and reputation systems
(19:41) Sponsors: Babbel | Beehiiv
(22:15) Who's your favorite fraudster?
(25:10) Crypto and money laundering
(30:31) FTX and money laundering theory
(36:59) Collapse of FTX
(40:55) Normative Aspects of Trust
(46:27) The Starfighter Project
(53:33) Value of networking and cold emails
(58:00) Managing information flow
(01:02:31) Outro -
This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the resurgence of prediction markets, the balance of sophisticated vs. 'dumb' money, Biden's nomination odds and the impact of AI on software economics.
🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj
---
SPONSORS:
BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://babbel.com/torenberg
BEEHIIV: Head to beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months
---
RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining
Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies.
Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034
-
📈 ECON 102 W/ NOAH SMITH
Keeping econ entertaining - Noahpinion author Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg break down business news and politics every week.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812
---
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:20) Is this the Polymarket election?
(08:55) Prediction markets
(11:07) Politics and prediction markets
(15:13) Sponsors: Babbel | Beehiiv
(17:48) CrowdStrike and the cost of software failures
(23:39) AI adoption and workplace dynamics
(27:29) Financial systems post-Great Financial Crisis
(35:02) USSR's computer network for economic planning
(40:01) Best performing stock of the last 100 years
(43:22) AI's impact on software and hardware economics
(48:46) Market cycles and political influence
(51:11) Dot-com crash, Y2K, and the housing bubble
(54:28) Stripe and the future of private companies
(59:12) Venture capital vs. Private equity returns
(01:00:49) Outro
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
---
X / TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg (Erik)
https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)
https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) - Show more
