Episodes
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US stocks rise again with hopes a dominant Trump Presidency will be good for growth and profits, but Treasury yields fell ahead of the Fed’s decision. The Bank of England cuts, but looser British fiscal policy may slow more cuts.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou explains how well China is prepared for Trump tariffs 2.0.
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US stocks surge more than 2% to fresh record highs as stock investors celebrate Donald Trump’s re-election. But bond holders aren’t so sure. US Treasury yields jumped 18 basis points to a six-month high as traders bet on tax cuts, higher borrowing and growth. Meanwhile New Zealand’s jobless rate rises less than expected, and Malaysia holds rates.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman analyses the currency implications of that election win, following a sizeable jump in the US dollar overnight.
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Missing episodes?
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US stocks and Treasury yields are up on election day as data suggests whoever wins is going to inherit a growing US economy. Meanwhile, the RBA holds and stays mildly hawkish, and New Zealand’s unemployment rate is expected to tick up today.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner reviews the recent leap in ANZ’s Business Outlook survey and looks ahead to the Reserve Bank’s rate decision at the end of the month.
Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/ -
The US dollar and Treasury yields fell overnight as opinion polls pointed to a narrow Kamala Harris victory; In Australia today the RBA is expected to hold rates but shift to a more neutral tone, and Australia’s jobs market shows more signs of strength.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at how a Trump Presidency might affect trade in Asia, vs a Harris Presidency.
Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/ -
US jobs growth was much weaker than expected in October, but the Fed is still on track to cut rates 25 basis points later this week. December is not as certain for another cut though. And watch out this week for more stimulus news from China.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin teases out how the Fed, financial markets and bond investors view a Harris win, or a Trump win.
Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/ -
The Bank of Japan holds rates, but signals more still on the cards; UK rate cut bets retreat after new Government’s first budget, Australian retail sales jump and China’s manufacturing sector expands ahead of further stimulus expected next week.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou (Showe Jo) looks at the rise …and the rise of China’s electric vehicle industry.
Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/ -
US GDP is boosted by strong consumer spending while European growth beats expectations. Australian inflation falls - but rate cuts still aren’t on the cards for this year. And the Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates today against a backdrop of political uncertainty.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, as Indonesia’s new President is finally sworn in following February’s election, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan looks at what his new policy priorities could mean for commodities and the state budget.
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US consumer confidence lifts, ahead of stronger GDP figures expected today, although weaker jobs data shows signs of a cooling labour market; And Australian consumer confidence stays strong ahead of data today expected to show headline inflation fall to within the RBA’s target band.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman analyses the potential impact today’s inflation numbers could have on the Aussie dollar.
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Oil prices slump 5.5% on hopes the tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran might not escalate. The yen falls on uncertainty about a new Government in Japan, and gas prices are rising as European buyers hunt for LNG supplies for the European winter.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari explains why China is stockpiling copper as a strategic metal.
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Traders are bracing for hits to the yen and the Nikkei after surprising losses for Japan’s ruling party in election results overnight. Japan’s inflation is firming in line with Bank of Japan hopes, and US non-farm payrolls are the big figures to watch this week.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at the Trump trade in global currency and bond markets.
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The US labour market remains resilient, while UK and European production is still contracting. South Korea growth disappoints as exports drag, and Japan’s Finance Minister raises concerns as the yen slides against a resurgent US dollar
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at what China might learn from its current economic support efforts, and how quickly India might catch up.
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US stocks are dragged down by big tech names. European rate cut bets move further towards 50 basis points in December. Canada cuts rates by 50 basis points, and Singapore’s inflation is higher than expected, but provides enough for policy easing.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga was in China during the recent stimulus briefings and gives us his take on what the domestic economy there is facing.
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US Fed officials point to smaller, cautious cuts, Australian consumers look through later rate cuts and to job safety as confidence jumps, and falls in some New Zealand imports point to underlying economic weakness.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses concerns that China has been building up excessive stockpiles of key imports at the same time as domestic activity has been dropping off.
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Gold jumps to new highs. China’s banks cut lending rates more than expected to jolt demand. Iron ore and oil prices fall after China stimulus disappointment, and the RBA is encouraged by rate cut bets being pushed out after strong jobs data.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why investors weren’t too keen on China’s recent property support package.
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The S&P 500 starts the week fresh after hitting a new record high on Friday. China’s GDP beats expectations, but a big fourth quarter jump is required to hit the official target. Japan’s core inflation continues to support cautious BoJ rate hikes.
ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin reviews the key September economic data prints in the US to explain why market pricing for November and December rate cuts by the US Fed are starting to be dialled back.
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The European Central Bank cuts by 25 basis points as inflation falls below target; US rate cut bets are pulled back following stronger retail sales; Australian jobs growth surges; And China announces further measures to support its property market.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at the effects that changing household sizes and investor lending are having on Australia’s housing market.
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New Zealand’s inflation falls more than expected, with markets now wondering if a 75 basis point cut in November is on the cards; UK inflation was also weaker; Australian jobs growth is expected to slow; And the Philippines and Thailand cut rates.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman explains what New Zealand’s weaker inflation could mean for the Reserve Bank’s November decision.
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A weakening UK jobs market points to a November Bank of England cut; Concern over China stimulus grows; FOMC members talk of 25bps cuts by the Fed; New Zealand inflation is set to return to target; Three rates decisions today in Asia.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk discusses signs that Australia’s housing market is starting to cool - particularly in Melbourne.
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Chinese stocks rise after more stimulus was promised over the weekend, but bond investors remain wary. Singapore holds policy but turns dovish, even as growth strengthens. India’s inflation unexpectedly jumps in September.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ International Economist Kishti Sen analyses the outlook for Pacific Island currencies as global monetary policy easing takes off.
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Solid US producer prices add to signals the Fed will be cautious in November; South Korea cuts rates, but now looks to pause; And Chinese inflation is weaker than expected, with traders also underwhelmed by Saturday’s stimulus briefing.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing outlines why that weekend briefing by China’s Finance Ministry did not deliver what investors were looking for.
Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/ - Show more
