Episodes
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In this final preseason episode, @deepvaluebettor and @contextcapper debate the Super Bowl promise of the Detroit Lions, the uncertainty surrounding the Chicago Bears' new quarterback Caleb Williams, the overrated potential of Jordan Love's Green Bay Packers, and the savory possibility of a Sam Darnold resurgence.
0:00 Opening Bell00:48 Emotional ties to the NFC North01:48 Packers' turnaround and overconfidence03:53 Analyzing NFL analysts' predictions06:03 Betting insights and market reactions10:40 Vikings' performance and 2024 future prospects30:36 Caleb Williams and the Bears' hype 37:21 Comparing Bears and Vikings: a close call 37:59 Betting strategies for the Bears 38:37 Sneak preview of Week 1 bets41:20 Analyzing Bears' 2023 performance 46:09 Bears' 2024 roster and schedule breakdown52:05 Packers' 2024 season outlook53:42 Jordan Love: the future?59:25 Packers' roster changes and schedule breakdown01:03:45 Lions: the new NFC favorites?01:03:59 Dan Campbell's aggressive coaching style01:11:34 Lions' roster and schedule analysis01:14:53 Betting on the Lions: risks and rewards -
In the 2024 season premiere episode of Alpha Bets, @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @contextcapper provide an in-depth analysis of the NFC South's teams for the 2024 NFL season. They discuss preseason rankings and market expectations, focusing on the volatility and potential value in the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New Orleans Saints. They debate scenarios involving key player impacts, such as Bryce Young's development, and evaluate offensive and defensive metrics using EDP (earned drive points). They highlight the mismanagement and injuries affecting past performances and suggest betting strategies, emphasizing the upside potential of the Panthers and cautioning against the overhyped Falcons.
00:00 Excitement for the Season01:01 Division Preview Strategy01:32 Market Expectations for NFC South Teams03:16 Analyzing the Panthers' Potential04:45 Panthers' Performance Metrics09:12 Impact of Coaching and Roster Changes28:06 Saints' Roster and Coaching Analysis41:36 Betting on the First NFL Coach to Be Fired45:04 Evaluating the Saints' Season Prospects46:44 Analyzing the Buccaneers' Chances55:06 Falcons' Potential and Quarterback Concerns56:25 Bryce Young and the Panthers' Future01:13:22 Concluding Thoughts on NFC South -
Missing episodes?
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Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Zach (@contextcapper), and Judah (@throwthedamball) search for alpha and investigate exploitable angles across their favorite games on the NFL Week 4 slate, with a focus on the Circa Million contest.
*This episode is snipped from our GameTRADE live betting stream on Thursday Night Football, so the audio is less polished and there are several sounds of New York City in the background due to window being open (grrr)*
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Brett (@deepvaluebettor) and Judah (@throwthedamball) recap NFL Week 2 live betting performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across their favorite games on the NFL Week 3 slate.
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Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and guest Eric Eager from Sumer Sports (@ericeager_) evaluate the Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders betting prospects in 2023 from a markets and analytics perspective, and offer their favorite high-octane "alpha bets" for the division.
Eric's heart wants to see upside in the Broncos, but his model is more ambivalent, leading him to take the Raiders alt over 7.5 wins at +195. The boys discuss how the Raiders may have performed better than their record indicated last year, and why the betting market's disrespect of Jimmy G may offer some value.
Judah doesn't see Russell Wilson rujenating his career, even with Sean Payton, particularly because the Saints/Brees scheme of highly accurate, middle-of-the-field passes with YAC receivers doesn't neatly fit Wilson and this offense's current core skillsets. He likes betting Broncos last in division at +250.
Brett doesn't want to outright fade a powerhouse like the Chiefs with elite coaching and a superstar QB that elevates all those around him, but also thinks the price for the Chiefs alt over 12.5 wins is overly optimistic and underappreciates the natural volatility of an NFL season (+ the Chiefs unusually strong injury luck the last 3 seasons). He likes under 12.5 wins at -155.
Check out more of our research at www.sportfoliokings.com.
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Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and guest Andy Molitor from Betsperts and the Deep Dive Podcast (@andymsfw) pick apart the Bengals, Browns, Ravens, and Steelers betting prospects in 2023 from a markets and analytics perspective, and offer their favorite high-octane "alpha bets" for the division.
0:00 - Intro
1:34 - Alpha bets
6:57 - Steelers
22:06 - Browns
39:39 - Ravens
48:50 - Bengals
54:06 - Live betting discussion
Check out more of our research at www.sportfoliokings.com.
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Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and guest Ben Brown from PFF (@pff_benbrown) slice and dice the Bears, Packers, Vikings, and Lions betting prospects in 2023 from a markets and analytics perspective, and offer their favorite high-octane "alpha bets" for the division.
The Chicago Bears right tail outcomes look fat and if it all comes together (asking a lot) this team could be the Lions of 2022 (but so much relies on Justin Fields development as a passer, and the arrival of DJ Moore helps...but isn't going to unilaterally elevate Fields).
The Green Bay Packers have been a bottom 5 offensive pace team with Aaron Rodgers - now with an inexperienced QB, inexperienced WRs, and a rookie TE, least scored points +1100 looks attractive.
The Minnesota Vikings and Kirk Cousins are models of consistency, and in a division ripe with uncertainty + the addition of Brian Flores to improave a dreadful defense, +300 division winners is juicy.
Goff had a ceiling year in 2022, and expecting that performance again is a vulnerability (unless Ben Johnson truly is the next offensive genius). But the Lions won't be sneaking up on anyone this year and expectations are sky high. This makes the Lions fragile and under 9.5 wins +100 is Brett's division alpha bet.Check out more of our research at www.sportfoliokings.com.
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Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and guest Seth (@bullytheboard) evaluate the Jaguars, Colts, Texans, and Titans betting prospects in 2023 from a markets and analytics perspective, and offer their favorite high-octane "alpha bets" for the division.
Check us out at www.sportfoliokings.com.
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Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and Steven (@pattonanalytics) evaluate the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Bucs betting prospects in 2023.
Drawing on their expertise in both traditional Wall Street strategies and building innovative sports betting models, the trio offers a fresh and comprehensive recap of each team's 2022 performance using advanced analytics to cut through the noise, showcasing the impressive forecasting ability of their flagship Drive Quality model to reprice teams more quickly than broader market adjustments. Brett, Judah, and Steven then take a quantitative deep-dive into the 2023 season, evaluating betting opportunities and isolating futures trades they think offer the most alpha potential. We're just warming up, Kings. It's gonna be an exciting season!
Learn more about us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
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Brett, Judah, and Zach discuss, debate, and strategize how to attack the big game from both a pregame and live betting perspective. #SGP #livebetting #draftkings #parlays
0:00 - Intro 0:36 - Evolution of futures market prices for Eagles and Chiefs 1:23 - US market betting preferences 1:47 - Sharp and pro money bettor positioning 2:42 - Zach's opening thoughts 3:07 - Judah's opening thoughts 4:43 - Chiefs in-season struggles 8:29 - Eagles potential weaknesses 13:14 - Potential game scripts for Eagles, Chiefs, and game total 19:23 - Trigger points for live betting purposes 29:14 - Tail outcome scenarios for same game parlays 31:30 - Coaching advantages 34:51 - Closing comments and key betting takeaways
Follow us @sportfoliokings on Twitter, Tiktok, and Twitch
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Brett and Judah review playoff scenarios heading into Week 18, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest. #nflanalytics #nflbetting #livebetting #trading #sportfolio
Follow SportfolioKings on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/sportfoliokings
Follow Brett on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/deepvaluebettor
Follow Judah on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/throwthedamball
Follow Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/notyourdaddys_
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting Podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We b...
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Brett and Judah recap NFL Week 14 live betting performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 15 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest. #nflanalytics #nflbetting #livebetting #trading #sportfolio
Follow SportfolioKings on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/sportfoliokings
Follow Brett on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/deepvaluebettor
Follow Judah on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/throwthedamball
Follow Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/notyourdaddys_
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting Podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strateg...
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The New York Jets moved the ball impressively vs the Vikings, but struggled to cash TDs. The Jets have been betting darlings, but a single week of mild underperformance has the team mispriced vs an increasingly vulnerable Bills team with visible cracks forming. We'll be betting the Jets heavy and looking for live opportunities to add exposure at better prices. Brett and Judah discuss their gameplan for this matchup and recap NFL Week 13 live betting performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 14 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest. #nflanalytics #nflbetting #livebetting #trading #sportfolio
Matchup Chapters: 0:00 - Intro 1:32 - Butthurt moments and our beef with certain betting groups 6:10 - Live betting performance recap 16:41 - Review Week 13 Drive Quality model scoreboard 20:23 - Week 14 industry analyst market power rankings 34:10 - Raiders v Rams 37:45 - Jets v Bills 39:40 - Browns v Bengals 41:27 - Texans v Cowboys 42:25 - Vikings v Lions 44:17
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Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins, oh my! The late afternoon NFL slate is ripe for elite football, volatility, and juicy mispriced live spreads. Brett and Judah discuss their gameplan for this and recap NFL Week 12 performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 13 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest.
Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins, oh my! The late afternoon NFL slate is ripe for elite football, volatility, and juicy mispriced live spreads. Brett and Judah discuss their gameplan for this and recap NFL Week 12 performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 13 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest. 0:00 - Intro0:17 - Live betting butthurt moments4:06 - Live betting mega wins5:38 - Review Week 12 Drive Quality model scoreboard11:56 - Week 13 industry analyst market power rankings26:35 - Bills v Patriots29:07 - Jets v Vikings27:34 - Patriots v Vikings33:11 - Broncos v Ravens36:00 - Commies v Giants38:18 - Titans v Eagles41:09 - Jaguars v Lions45:17 - Steelers v Falcons47:23 - Packers v Bears49:05 - Dolphins v 49ers53:48 - Seahawks v Rams55:33 - Chiefs v Bengals56:03 - Chargers v Raiders58:06 - Cowboys v Colts1:00:13 - Saints v BucsFollow SportfolioKings on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/sportfoliokings
Follow Brett on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/deepvaluebettor
Follow Judah on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/throwthedamball
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A trifecta of mediocre games only a bettor could love on Thanksgiving Day! Yippie! The Cowboys D may turn Danny Dimes into mashed potatoes, but a deficit-enabled game script could make his pass (and potentially run(ning for his life)) props an over gravy train. Brett and Judah discuss this and recap NFL Week 11 performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 12 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest.
Matchup Chapters: 0:00 - Intro, 0:24 - Review Week 11 Drive Quality model scoreboard, 6:28 - Week 12 industry analyst market power rankings, 16:29 - Bills v Lions, 21:48 - Giants v Cowboys, 27:34 - Patriots v Vikings, 30:25 - Texans v Dolphins, 32:22 - Bears v Jets, 36:02 - Ravens v Jaguars, 40:17 - Bengals v Titans, 45:34 - Falcons v Commanders, 46:11 - Broncos v Panthers, 48:50 - Bucs v Browns, 51:51 - Raiders v Seahawks, 53:08 - Chargers v Cardinals, 56:41 - Rams v Chiefs, 57:59 - Saints v Niners, 59:59 - Packers v Eagles, 1:02:10 - Steelers/Colts
Follow SportfolioKings on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/sportfoliokings
Follow Brett on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/deepvaluebettor
Follow Judah on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/throwthedamball
Follow Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/notyourdaddys_
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting Podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen spo...
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The Chicago Bears have ranked top 5 in our offensive Drive Quality metric since the team's "mini-bye" following the Washington heartbreaking loss in Chicago a fews ago. Is this a sustainable phenomenon? Brett and Judah discuss this and recap NFL Week 10 performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 11 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest.
Matchup Chapters: 0:00 - Intro 1:41 - Week 10 Drive Quality model surprises 8:12 - Week 11 consensus market power rankings review 16:23 - Browns/Bills 18:29 - Eagles/Colts 21:06 - Jets/Patriots 23:27 - Lions/Giants 24:36 - Panthers/Ravens 25:48 - Commies/Texans 26:48 - Bears/Falcons 30:48 - Rams/Saints 31:51 - Raiders/Broncos 32:40 - Cowboys/Vikings 34:03 - Bengals/Steelers 36:03 - Chiefs/Chargers
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Brett, Judah, and special guest caleb (@calebbets3) recap NFL Week 9 performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 10 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest.
Matchup Chapters: 0:00 - Intro | 0:47 - Week 9 Drive Quality model surprises | 8:24 - Week 10 consensus market power rankings review | 21:17 - Falcons/Panthers | 24:03 - Seahawks/Bucs | 30:12 - Vikings/Bills | 31:58 - Texans/Giants | 33:23 - Jags/Chiefs | 36:22 - Browns/Dolphins | 38:55 - Broncos/Titans | 41:50 - Lions/Bears | 44:31 - Saints/Steelers | 46:36 - Colts/Raiders | 47:53 - Cowboys/Packers | 50:45 - Cardinals/Rams | 52:27 - Chargers/Niners | 55:24
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Brett and Judah recap NFL Week 8 performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 9 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest.
Matchup Chapters: 0:00 - Intro 0:45 - Week 8 Drive Quality model scoreboard 5:54 - Changes to industry analyst market consensus rankings 16:20 - Eagles/Texans 19:53 - Colts/Pats 21:16 - Chargers/Falcons 25:55 - Dolphins/Bears 29:35 - Vikings/Commies 31:01 - Panthers/Bengals 34:03 - Bills/Jets 36:30 - Packers/Lions 39:44 - Raiders/Jags 41:19 - Seahawks/Cardinals 42:53 - Rams/Bucs 45:26 - Titans/Chiefs 46:37 - Ravens/Saints 51:07- Closing bell, Sa...
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Brett and Judah recap NFL Week 7 performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 8 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest.
Matchup Chapters: 0:07 - Intro | 0:35 Recap Week 7 betting performance and key takeaways | 4:20 - Week 7 Drive Quality model scoreboard | 9:58 - Changes to market consensus rankings after Week 5 | 26:40 - Ravens/Bucs | 35:12 - Broncos/Jaguars | 37:50 - Patriots/Jets | 42:19 - Steelers/Eagles | 47:50 - Cardinals/Vikings | 53:59 - Bears/Cowboys | 57:31 - Raiders/Saints | 58:59 - Panthers/Falcons | 1:01:33 - Titans/Texans | 1:03:18 - Giants/Seahawks | 1:04:34 - Commanders/Colts | 1:05:53 - Niners/Rams | 1:08:05 - Packers/Bills | 1:10:04 - Bengals/Browns | 1:13:53 - Closing bell, preliminary Circa Millions bets
Follow betting strategists @deepvaluebettor and @throwthedamball on Twitter for more insights throughout the 2022 NFL season.
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.
Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
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