Episodes
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This is perhaps our last show
1. Google, MSFT and AMD are leading the headlines today. They are all dropping after reporting earnings. Alphabet (GOOG) is the biggest loser falling by nearly 6.0%. This news is weighing on the NASDAQ which is trading lower by 1.17%. Like I said last week, these stocks are all priced for perfection after the recent run up. On Thursday, AAPL, AMZN and META are all scheduled to report after the closing bell.
2. Regional banks are coming under some selling pressure today as well. The Regional bank ETF (KRE) is trading lower by 3.85%. This comes after New York Community Bank (NYCB) earnings. That stock is trading lower by 36%.
3. Later today, the FOMC decision will be at 2:00 ET, followed by Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged.
4. Gold is having a good day trading higher by 1.0%. Everytime gold looks like it is going to rollover it catches a bid. This chart must be watched like a hawk right now. The breakout does not happen until you get a monthly chart close above $2100. Either way, the trend is still up and that is important.
5. Bitcoin is pulling back today after staging a 1-week bounce. If anyone bought bitcoin at the recent low I would put a top loss at break-even now and protect that trade. It is still possible to trade higher, but if a lower high is made the recent lows could be retested.
Gamestop Movie Dumb Money Link https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13957560/
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1. It's a quiet start for the major indexes this Monday morning. While the indexes are higher they are just slightly positive.
2. This Is a huge week for earnings. Mega cap stocks such as MSFT, AAPL. AMZN, META, and AMD are all scheduled to report this week.
3. Oil,nat gas and energy are weaker today. This industry group remains very choppy for the past several months.
4. The Fed announcement is this Wednesday. I do not expect the central bank to do anything this week when it comes to rate cuts. The verbiage will obviously be important. Remember, in December, Chairman Powell pivoted suddenly so you never know what he will say going forward.
5. Gold is upticking a little today, but as I said last week, I need to see more of the pattern as it develops. Gold futures remain above the important $2000 level and there is nothing wrong if it just chops around this area.
6. Bitcoin is up a little today after a bif Friday pop. While there should be more of a bounce the pattern it forms will be very important going forward.
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Missing episodes?
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1. Earnings season is underway. Netflix (NFLX) reported last night and that stock is a big winner this morning trading higher by 13%. Texas Instruments (TXN) on the other hand is trading down by 2.8%. Then we have consumer goods stock Kimberly Clark (KMB) trading lower by 4.5%. This stock is dragging most of the consumer goods names lower. Clorox, Colgate and Church & Dwight are falling in sympathy with Kimberly Clark. This week earnings are reving up, but next week is when we really hit full throttle with earnings reports.
2. The small caps were lagging a little today. The Russell 2000 Index (IWM) was trading lower by 0.20%, but now up 0.25%. Outside of that the major indexes seem fine and continue to ramp up almost every trading session.
3. Gold is declining a little today trading down about 0.30%. The precious metal is still holding the psychological $2000 level. Traders and investors like myself are keeping a close eye on the pattern that forms over the next couple weeks. If you have a long term outlook then there is nothing wrong. In the short term I continue to see choppiness.
4. Bitcoin is trying to catch a bounce after hitting daily chart support. Last week, I pointed out that a pullback was underway and the $39,600 level would be some short term daily chart support. That support level was pierced yesterday and today the popular crypto is catching a bid. Remember, nothing goes down in a straight line. -
1.The major stock indexes are rallying higher again this morning. Last friday, the S&P 500 Index closed at a new all time high after 2-years. Currently, that market remains strong and in an uptrend.
2. Earnings season kicks into full gear this week. Last week, earnings season began, but the number of companies reporting was very light. This week we shall see earnings from all different industry groups. Buckle up, this could be a wild earnings period.
3. Alternative energy and solar stocks are trading higher today leading the charge. This group could be putting in a bottom as they have been declining since January 2021. This is a solid trade idea for 2024.
4. Gold is trading slightly lower today. There is some minor daily chart support around the $2000 level. Gold support levels and chart patterns will be important to track this year. Right now, Id wait for more information.
Silver is very weak again today. This has been lagging gold. Silver has some daily chart support around the $22.00 area in the near term.
5. Bitcoin futures are trading lower today. I see daily chart support around the $39,600 area. So far, since the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETP's the crypto currency has sold off.
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1.The major stock indexes are starting out a little on the weak side today. At this time, the major indexes have been trading in a tight range since mid-December.
2. Earlier this morning, the retail sales report was stronger than expected. This is signaling that consumers are still strong and that might keep the Fed from cutting rates. The next FOMC meeting is on Jan 31st. Personally, I think the Fed is going to sit tight and not cut until the middle of the year if at all.
2A. This Friday is options expiration for the month of January. This is a time to watch for a lot of institutional game playing. This is the week of rumors, wacky news, and ridiculous upgrades & downgrades. In other words, expect the unexpected.
3. Oil is selling off today and is now testing the $71.00 level. A weekly close below the December lows will trigger a sharp sell signal for crude down to the $55.00 level.
4. Gold has been under pressure this week and is down today by 0.50%. There is some daily chart support for Gold futures around the $2000 level. The next key support area will be around the $1900 area.
5. Bitcoin futures are falling today. I'm seeing support on the futures chart around the $39.6000 area in the near term. So far, Bitcoin has been a sell the news event since the EFP approval.
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1.Earnings season kicked off today with JPM and other financial reporting.
2. Oil and energy are rallying after the US and UK conducted strikes against military targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen
3. Next week is options ex for January.
4. Gold and silver are catching an early bid.
5. Bitcoin slumps after spot ETP approval
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1. The fake Bitcoin Tweet heard around the world. The SEC was allegedly hacked. The crypto traders are all awaiting news from the SEC on a spot bitcoin ETF approval by over 10 firms.
2. It's a quiet day for markets, Tomorrow, the CPI number will be released. This has been a market moving number in the past and can be again.
3. The financial stocks have stalled out a little this week, but they have been some of the biggest winners since the rally started in late October. I think this pullback is healthy as this sector was starting to get parabolic. JP Morgan Chase (JPM) has rallied nearly 30% in 2 months.
4. Gold is flat today, but it has been pulling back since December 28th. There is still a lot of daily chart support around the $2000 level.
5. Silver has lagged gold as you know. There is still a lot of support for silver around the $22.00 level on the daily chart. Currently, silver futures are trading around the $23.00 level, but this is minor support right now as it has been tested for a week already.
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Kerry Lutz and Nick Santiago talked about what 2024 has in store for the financial markets. They analyzed the recent movements of the market, including the resurgence of technology stocks and the impact of the Powell pivot. They also discussed the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shifts and their impact on the market, as well as potential indicators of an upcoming recession.
Then they moved on to the energy market, precious metals market, and investment strategies.The discussion on the energy market focused on the performance of crude oil and natural gas, with Santiago sharing his trading experiences and challenges. They also discussed the potential impact of the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on the cryptocurrency market.
Pecious metals were a key topic and Nick highlighted the volatility in gold and the underperformance of silver, as well as the market outlook for 2024.Santiago provided insights on sector analysis and investment strategies, advising against tech stocks in the first half of the year and recommending considering companies that were beaten down last year.
They also discussed the housing market, emphasizing the shortage of housing caused by large firms buying houses and reducing supply. The conversation ended with a discussion on the potential for China to invade Taiwan and the potential consequences of such an action, as well as the likelihood of more wars in the coming years and the potential impact of political scenarios on the global economy.
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1.The major indexes are upticking to start the day. Last week was an important time period for markets as Fed Chairman Jay Powell changed his verbiage on interest rates and was basically dovish. I'm sure this week we will hear the fed heads start to talk hawkish as the markets have run a lot since late October.
2. US Steel (X) is going to be bought by Nippon Steel for $55.00 a share. The stock is trading higher by 26.00% on the news. This is helping a lot of other steel related stocks trade higher in sympathy. CLF, NUE and others are trading higher on the news.
3. OIl is catching a big bid today. Attacks on ships in the Red Sea raised concerns of oil supply disruptions. BP and other oil firms said it has temporarily paused all transits through the Red Sea. Ironically, last week the chart gave us a buy signal in crude. Full disclosure, I own the USO.
4. Gold is holding up today trading higher by 0.20%. Last week, gold caught a huge bid after the FOMC announcement. Now it will be all about the pattern that is formed over the next week or two.
5. Bitcoin is trading down by 1% today, but it is still in a trading range just above the $40K level. I think it is going to be range bound until the news of the stop bitcoin ETF is released.
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1.It's a big day for markets. First, we had the PPI report today. The Producer Price Index was unchanged month-over-month. Honestly, I don't care about the number, we only care about the reaction.
2. Later today at 2pm ET the FOMC will announce their interest rate policy decision for the United States. I think there is a good chance this is going to be a non-event since everyone knows the Fed is not going to do anything at this meeting. As always, the verbiage and the press conference could be important, but I'm not expecting much.
3. As you know, Friday is going to be a quadruple witching options expiration. This is the week of institutional game playing. There have been lots of rumors, news and ridiculous upgrades/downgrades already this week.
4. Gold is flat today, but it could move after the Fed today so be on your toes. Gold has been trending down and there is some daily chart support around the $1935 area.
5. Silver is also retreating this week. There are two support levels in play. First, it is $22.50 and $21.83.
6. BTC futures are slightly higher today. I think we going to see BTC futures tread here until the announcement of the spot bitcoin ETF's.
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1. Quad witching options expiration this Friday Dec 15th. This is a week for wild news, ridiculous upgrades/downgrades and lots of rumors. Letsthe games begin.
2. Mega cap tech stocks are pulling back today. $AAPL GOOG, AMZN, MSFT and NVDA are just a few leading tech stocks that are down by more than 1% at the open. This is again likely due to options expiration. As a rule, stocks that have been surging will pull back this week, stocks that are in the gutter will often bounce, hence, Cigna (CI).
3. Nat gas (UNG) is getting hammered today trading down by 10% to $2.31. About 2-3 weeks ago the chart started to make small bearish consolidation patterns on the daily chart and that has led to downside. I'm watching this closely as I will be looking to buy this a little lower. I'm sure a lot of today's large decline is options ex related.
4. Gold is under some early pressure trading lower by 0.7%. Often, gold is very vulnerable during an options expiration week. In the past, we have seen some very big declines in the precious metal during a quadruple of options ex week. I'm sure there were lots of call options purchased recently as gold was looking like a possible breakout play.
5. Bitcoin is selling off sharply today trading down by nearly 5% this morning. Again, I think this has a lot to do with options expiration. The recent run in bitcoin has been very large and now we are seeing a pullback today. I'm not expecting too much from here until the spot bitcoin ETF news is announced.
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1. The non-farm payroll report was released today. The headline number was a 199,000 job increase in nonfarm payrolls, there was a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.7% from 3.9%. Basically, this was another goldilocks report. It's funny how that has happened a lot this year.
2. The major indexes started weak and rallied up and now it’s pulling back a little, but basically flat. Either way, should the market continue to consolidate sideways there is nothing bad when that happens.
3. Next week is options expiration for December. This is a quarterly expiration which we call quadruple witching. This is a time period when we will see a lot of ridiculous upgrades/downgrades, off the wall news and lots of rumors that mostly will be false. Institutional game playing will be in play next week.
4. Oil is bouncing a little today after trading as low as $69.00 a barrel yesterday. I bought USO for a bounce trade here. We are into a heavy travel season and there's a chance that the government may try to fill the SPR at these lows.
5. Gold is falling today. This past Monday we saw a big reversal day in gold so we should expect more of a pullback from that false breakout attempt. The $1930 area is pretty good daily chart support.
6. Bitcoin is holding up well again today. As I have said before, this is going to remain strong until we get the announcement of the spot bitcoin ETF.
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1. The major indexes are trading higher this morning, but we have been in a range since November 20th. Overall, the major indexes are just consolidating and that is not a bad thing after a big run up like we had since October 27th. Share buybacks at record levels and special dividends are on the rise.
2. Oil is down again today. Crude is now trading at $70.75 a barrel. I'm looking for oil to trade down to the $69.00 area. There will be short term support around that area. Most energy stocks are trading lower right now and that will likely continue in the near term. Natgas has been on the weaker side. Nothing goes up in a straight line. Since 10-31 it has gone on a zig-zag pattern looking for a bottom.
3. Financial stocks are catching another bid today. The important Regional Bank ETF (KRE) is trading higher by 2.15%. This is a bullish indication for the overall markets when this trades higher. Nothing terrible happens when the financial stocks are strong.
4. Gold is catching a bid today. It is rebounding after a sharp 2-day sell off. The reversal on Monday was sharp so we must watch gold closely going forward. It is possible to see more downside in the near term. Either way, if you are a longer term investor, gold is going to eventually breakout, but it has not happened yet.
5. Bitcoin is on fire in anticipation of a spot bitcoin ETF being approved by the SEC. Its now getting overbought, but it will likely hold up into the announcement. Traders should be careful of a buy the rumor sell the news event.
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1. Markets are pulling back today. They have been very overbought on the daily chart.
2. Gold is pulling back in a big way today trading lower by 2.3%. Gold was very close to a monthly breakout, but it never confirmed the move and today it is pulling in sharply.
3. Silver is also retreating today. While it has not been as strong as gold recently it has held up well. Today, it is tradling lower by 4.0%... Now we watch for pattern over the next week or so.
4. Bitcoin is sharply higher after the SEC meets with Blackrock about a spot ETF.
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1.Markets are trading higher today after the . The catalyst for the move higher was from the second estimate for Q3 GDP showed real GDP increasing at an annual rate of 5.2%. This number was expected to be strong but was better than expected. Later today, the Fed's Beige Book will be released at 2pm ET.
2. The Russell 2000 Index (IWM) is the big winner so far today. As many of you know, when the small caps lead markets it tells us that risk is on. That is the case today.
3. Oil has been ticking up this week ahead of the OPEC meeting. Apparently, OPEC is looking for OPEC+ to cut production. We don't know if that is going to happen. Either way, the chart is telling me crude is going down to the $69-70 level.
4. Gold has been a powerhouse lately. Yesterday, the precious metal surged and today it is slightly higher. Please understand, gold has not broken out yet, but it is getting close.
5. Bitcoin is pulling back a little today, but it does not seem as if anything is wrong yet.The daily chart is fine and the short term trend is up.
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1. The holiday is over and the markets are stalling out a little to start the week. These markets are very overbought on a daily chart basis. A pullback or some consolidation is needed after such a big surge. Today is a full moon, let's see if we get a minor pullback for a few days here.
2. New home sales declined 5.6% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000. Expectations were 720,000, this is a miss. The prior month was revised to 719,000 from 759,000. While on the surface this looks bad, we must remember that bad news is often viewed as good news these days.
3. Gold and silver have held up like rocks lately. Today, the precious metals are showing strength again. Gold futures have not broken out yet, but are teasing us as it trades above 2000. Silver is now flirting with $25.00 an ounce.
4. Bitcoin is pulling back today from a short term overbought condition. The pullback does not look damaging to the overall structure which is still bullish.
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1. Nvidia (NVDA) earnings are the talk of the day. The stock is trading lower by 3.0%. The earnings were very strong as expected, but the stock had run higher recently with the overall stock market.
2. The major stock indexes are continuing to rally in this light volume holiday session. Often, around major holiday periods we look for light volume and the major indexes will usually remain buoyant.
3. Crude is selling off today trading down by $3.16 to $74.61 a barrell. It looks as if OPEC canceled this weekend's meeting to Thursday, 30 November 2023. According to a Bloomberg report, Saudi Arabia expressed dissatisfaction with other members' oil production levels.
Either way, the next support level for crude oil is going to be around the $69-70 level.
4. Gold had another solid day yesterday. Today the precious metal is flat. The chart remains strong and is holding up well at this time. it has not broken out yet, but it is testing the psychological $2000 level again. Should it form a sideways basing pattern it will likely look to breakout soon. I'll be watching this pattern closely.
5. Bitcoin is trading slightly lower today, but the chart remains strong right now as everyone awaits a spot Bitcoin ETF. -
1. The major indexes have staged a a big rally since October 27th. Now it looks like the markets need to take a breather.
Today, the major indexes are slightly higher to start the day. The NASDAQ is leading the charge trading up by 0.50%.
2. Microsoft has now hired the former C3 AI CEO Sam Altman to lead it AI division. The stock is trading higher this morning on the news. MSFT stock is trading at all time highs right now.
3. The decline in bond yields have been the tailwind with the stock market. Today yields on the 10 year note are up 0,028 basis points to 4.47%. The 2-year note yield has also retreated below the important 5.0% level trading at 4.90%.
4. Gold has been holding up very well, especially as the US Dollar Index has sold off. Today, gold is trading lower by 0.58% to 1974 an ounce. This is a chart that needs to be watched closely everyday. I think it is still holding up well at the moment.
5. Bitcoin futures are trading higher by 2.0% to 37,500. Again, the crypto world is holding up well as everyone awaits the spot bitcoin ETFs to get approval. Until the announcement it can still continue to trade higher.
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1. Markets are trying to rally again today after yesterday's sell-off.
2. Yields surged yesterday after a weak 30-year US Treasury auction. Today, yields are pulling back a little today.
3. Fed Chairman Jay Powell spoke at the IMF yesterday. He was very hawkish as expected. Remember, this is what he usually does when the markets rally. Today, the markets are shrugging his comments off.
4. Oil is bouncing today from a short term oversold condition on the daily chart. The bigger short term support level is around the $70.00 area should oil begin to break down again.
5. Gold is getting hit hard today falling by more than 1.3%. Gold has been pulling back since October 27th when it traded as high as $2019/ounce. I'd just remain neutral in the short term as we have options expiration in play next Friday. Gold and precious metals will usually get tossed around throughout the week leading up to options expiration.
6. Bitcoin is bouncing higher today after a sharp pullback yesterday. The trend is up and many investors are expecting a spot crypto ETF to get approval soon. We shall shortly.
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1. The major indexes have surged since October 27th when the S&P 500 index traded as low as 4103. Today, the S&P 500 index is trading at 4387. This has been a major surge and the markets likely need a breather soon.
2. Crude oil is down again today trading around the $76.50 area. Even with the Middle East conflict oil has still retreated sharply lower. Remember, on October 20th crude was trading around $90.00 a barrel. This has certainly helped a lot of the leading transport stocks especially the airlines.
3. Gold is backing off today and has been pulling back since October 27 when it traded as high as $2019.00. The current pullback is not terrible and the pattern must be watched closely over the next week or so. The geopolitical events are not likely to go away anytime soon and that could keep a bid in gold.
4. Yields have staged a sharp pullback, but I believe that is all it is. It is difficult for me to see yields tumble much further. The US debt is enormous and yields will not go back to the 2.0% level on the 10-year in our lifetime.
5. Bitcoin is pulling in today, but it has been very strong lately. This will probably hold up into the news of a spot bitcoin ETF. Supposedly the ball in the SEC's court. - Show more
