Episodes
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research and YardeniQuickTakes.com. Ed is one of the most accurate and respected Wall Street strategists, and we were excited to discuss his views on the economy, markets, and forecasting.
We covered a wide range of topics, including:Ed's outlook for inflation and the economyWhy he believes we could be entering a "Roaring 20s" period for the stock marketHis thoughts on why we might see fewer Fed rate cuts than many expectThe characteristics that make a good economic forecasterThe potential impact of AI on the economyHis views on the upcoming election and its market implicationsThe long-term underperformance of value vs growth stocksEd's approach to sector allocation and market breadth
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with our good friend Adam Butler, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of ReSolve Asset Management. We cover a lot of ground, including: The challenge of distinguishing investment edge from noise over typical investing lifetimesThe concept of return stacking and how it allows investors to increase portfolio diversificationThe process of determining sources of return to stack on top of stock and bond portfoliosThe impact of passive investing flows on market dynamics and fundamentalsPerspectives on whether AI will significantly boost economic productivity and GDP growthAs always, Adam offers thoughtful and sometimes contrarian views on these complex subjects, drawing on his extensive experience in quantitative investing and portfolio management.
SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
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Missing episodes?
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with NYU professor Aswath Damodaran to discuss his new book on the corporate life cycle and get his insights on a wide range of investing topics.We cover:- How companies age and why they struggle to act their age- The importance of storytelling in valuation- Aswath's thoughts on factor investing and its limitations- The rise of passive investing and its impact on markets- Market concentration and the dominance of big tech companies- How Aswath approaches his own investing decisions- The potential impact of AI on investing and valuation- Why Aswath has never attended the Berkshire Hathaway annual meetingAswath shares his unique perspectives on these topics, blending academic rigor with practical insights. He also offers his advice for the average investor, emphasizing the importance of focusing on preserving and growing wealth rather than chasing outsized returns.Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, this wide-ranging conversation offers valuable food for thought on navigating today's complex markets.
SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
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FOLLOW JACKTwitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquantLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jason Buck of Mutiny Funds to examine the idea of stocks for the long run and some potential challenges to it. We discuss:- Why the impressive historical returns of the US stock market may be an outlier- The importance of looking at real returns vs nominal returns- How to build a diversified portfolio to handle different economic scenarios- The concept of "fractal diversification" in portfolio construction- Rethinking sustainable withdrawal rates in retirement- The pros and cons of using leverage in a diversified portfolio- Unconventional investing beliefs that go against the mainstreamSEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Andy Constan, founder of DampedSpring . We cover a wide range of topics, including recent market volatility, the broader economic outlook, and Andy's perspectives on inflation and monetary policy. Andy shares his framework for analyzing deleveraging events, emphasizes the importance of thinking in probabilities for market outcomes, and discusses potential long-term impacts of factors like AI and deglobalization on the economy. We explore his views on different economic scenarios and the Federal Reserve's actions. As always, Andy provides nuanced insights into market analysis and investment decisions, making for a thought-provoking conversation.
SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Meb Faber, founder of Cambria Investment Management, to discuss his unconventional views on investing that often go against mainstream opinions. We explore a wide range of topics, including the Federal Reserve's performance, dividend investing strategies, international diversification for U.S. investors, trend following, and the relationship between interest rates and stock market valuations. Throughout our conversation, Meb challenges common investing beliefs and provided evidence-based perspectives on various aspects of the market. We all can benefit from challenging our own strongly held investing beliefs and we hope this episode will help you do that as it did for us.
SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITALhttps://www.valideacapital.com
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In this episode of Excess Returns, our good friend Matt Ziegler interviews retirement planning expert Wade Pfau. They discuss key concepts in retirement income planning, including the 4% rule, variable withdrawal strategies, and Pfau's "safety first" approach. They discuss Wade's work on retirement income styles and the RISA (Retirement Income Style Awareness) framework he developed to help retirees and advisors determine appropriate strategies. They also explore topics like the benefits of delaying Social Security, the role of annuities in retirement planning, and managing sequence of returns risk. Wade also shares insights on tax-efficient withdrawals, evolving retirement challenges, and balancing frugality with enjoying life in the present.
SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITALhttps://www.valideacapital.com
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we take a deep dive into value investing with our good friend Tobias Carlisle. We discuss the recent outperformance of small cap and value stocks, tackle the challenges of long periods of underperformance for value strategies, and examine how Tobias constructs his portfolios. We delve into his process for selecting stocks, including his focus on companies trading at discounts using the Acquirer's multiple and his approach to portfolio diversification. Our conversation also touches on the dominance of large tech companies and whether their outsized returns can continue. Throughout our discussion, Tobias emphasizes the importance of patience, skepticism about growth projections, and prioritizing survival over maximizing returns when investing.
SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research about his unique systematic approach to analyzing markets. We explore his outlook for the second half of 2024, discussing topics like the future of the 60/40 portfolio, inflation trends, labor market indicators, earnings expectations, and the impact of AI on productivity. Warren shares insights on market breadth, his newly launched quality-driven ETF strategy, and interesting perspectives on seasonality and retail sentiment. We also touch on his approach to combining systematic and discretionary investing methods. This wide-ranging conversation offers valuable insights for investors navigating the current market environment, showcasing Warren's ability to think outside the box and identify unique market opportunities.
SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITALhttps://www.valideacapital.com
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In this episode we have a fascinating discussion with Mike Green of Simplify about the ongoing impact of passive investing on markets. Mike shares insights from recent academic research supporting his thesis and discusses how the risks of passive may play out over time. We also explore potential risks from increased options usage and the short volatility trade. In the second half, we turn to the economy. Mike provides his views on inflation, recession risks, and Fed policy. He explains his concerns about bifurcation in the economy and markets, with different segments experiencing very different conditions. We conclude by discussing Mike's approach to hedging credit spread risks. Overall, Mike offers his usual thought-provoking perspectives on a wide range of market dynamics and risks.
SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
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In this episode from our sister podcast Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dive into the key lessons we took from our recent conversation with Rick Ferrii on Excess Returns.
If you enjoy the episode and want to receive future episodes of the podcast, please subscribe by searching Two Quants and a Financial Planner on your favorite podcast platform.
We explore Rick's approach to simple, low-cost investing and discuss how his insights apply to various investment strategies, including factor investing. We cover topics such as favoring simplicity, the enduring relevance of the 60/40 portfolio, the importance of fees, and looking to history for guidance. Throughout the discussion, we relate Rick's ideas to our own experiences in quantitative investing and financial planning, offering our perspectives on how these principles can be applied in practice. We also have some fun connecting each lesson to a KISS song. Our goal is to break down Rick's wisdom and show how it can benefit investors across different approaches and philosophies.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into the world of macroeconomics with Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds. We explore a wide range of topics, including inflation, the Federal Reserve's policies, and the overall state of the economy. Bob shares his insights on how market price targets can be evaluated from a fundamental perspective and discusses the role of gold in a diversified portfolio. We also touch on the complexities of investing in hedge funds and the impact of fiscal policies on market dynamics.
SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
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In our latest episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with Standpoint's Eric Crittenden. Eric discusses the all weather approach he uses to construct his personal portfoio. He emphasizes maximizing "true wealth" per unit of risk, which he defines as compounded returns after accounting for all costs, taxes, and inflation. Eric's all-weather investment approach, which combines global equities, bonds and a systematic global macro program investing in various uncorrelated markets. He discusses the importance of diversification beyond traditional stock and bond portfolios, his views on homeownership, wealth transfer to children, and the value of focusing on health and sleep. Eric also shares insights on risk management, the challenges of investor behavior, and the importance of getting the basics right in investing.
SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Rick Ferri to discuss a wide range of investing topics. We explore the concept of investing with simplicity, the importance of asset allocation, and the role of passive investing in today's market. Rick shares his insights on the stages investors go through to reach the point where simplicity is best, and how advisors can help clients gain buy-in for successful long-term investing. We also discuss Rick's thoughts on factor investing, ESG, and the key components of a successful retirement plan. Throughout the conversation, Rick emphasizes the importance of discipline, sticking to a strategy, and focusing on what you can control as an investor.
SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Simeon Hyman, Global Investment Strategist at ProShares, for a wide-ranging discussion on the current state of the economy, inflation, the Fed, market valuations, and market leadership. Simeon shares his thoughts on the possibility of a soft landing, the impact of AI on productivity and the economy, and the surprising beneficiaries of AI disruption. We also dive into some of the strategies offered by ProShares, including their dividend growth and covered call ETFs.
SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITALhttps://www.valideacapital.com
FOLLOW JACKTwitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquantLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Anupam Ghose, co-founder of System2 Advisors and sub-advisor to the Simplify Tara India Opportunities ETF. We discuss the Indian economy, recent political developments, and the country's attractive demographics and growth potential. Anupam shares his approach to stock picking for his concentrated portfolio of Indian companies, including how he assesses management quality, defines a competitive moat, and manages risk in the portfolio. This conversation uncovers some of the unique considerations investors should keep in mind when investing in emerging markets like India.
SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Greg Reid, President of Real Assets at Westwood Group Holdings and lead portfolio manager for their $2 billion energy investment team. We cover the outlook for energy and the major areas of the energy market. We discuss the future of clean energy and why traditional fuels may play a bigger role in it than renewables. We also dig deep into energy infrastructure investing and MLPs and Greg's process for selecting investments in the space and their new ETF that pairs energy investing with covered call writing to boost income.
SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we talk Moat investing with Yuri Khodjamirian, CIO of Tema ETFs. We discuss his unique approach to identifying companies with durable competitive advantages and how it differs from traditional Moat investing. We also look at the various types of moats, such as economies of scale, strong network effects, non-replicable physical assets, regulation, and high switching costs, and how these advantages apply to different industries. Yuri also shared insights on Tema's investment process, which blends quantitative and qualitative analysis to construct portfolios of these high-quality companies.
SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Adam Mead, founder of Mead Capital Management and author of the Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway. We discuss the recent Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, notably missing the presence of the late Charlie Munger. Adam shares insights on Munger's contributions to Berkshire, the company's energy business, and its positioning for the future under the leadership of Warren Buffett's successors. We also explore Berkshire's substantial cash position and the potential for the company to pay a dividend in the coming years. Join us for an in-depth discussion on all things Buffett, Munger, and Berkshire Hathaway with one of the foremost experts on the topic.
SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
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On April 30th, 2024, Excess Returns and SpotGamma brought together 24 of the smartest minds in the investing world for an all-day interview event to raise money for Susan G. Komen. In this episode we are providing two of our favorite interviews of the day with Corey Hoffstein and Ben Hunt. You can watch the full day of interviews or make a donation by heading over to the Excess Returns channel on YouTube and clicking the live link.SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.com
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FOLLOW JACKTwitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquantLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094
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