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In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and special guest host Brent Kochuba dive deep into the world of long volatility and tail risk strategies with Kris Sidial, founder of the Ambrus Group. Kris shares invaluable insights from his experience managing volatility-focused strategies and navigating major market events.🔑 Key Topics Covered:How long volatility strategies work and their role in investment portfoliosBehind-the-scenes look at managing vol strategies during market crashesThe August 2023 volatility event and what really happenedEvolution of the derivatives market and its impact on tradingThe truth about market liquidity and short volatility positioningHow retail options trading has changed market dynamicsKris provides a fascinating glimpse into how vol traders operate during market stress events, explaining how these strategies aim to deliver explosive returns during market crashes while minimizing losses during normal conditions. He also discusses the psychological challenges of running these strategies and the importance of having both quantitative and discretionary elements in volatility trading.Whether you're an institutional investor, retail trader, or just interested in understanding market dynamics better, this episode offers valuable perspectives on an often misunderstood corner of the investment world.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCap Club and Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management. We explore the fascinating world of microcap investing, where Ian shares his expertise in finding and investing in ultra-small public companies.We dive deep into Ian's investment philosophy, discussing how he identifies promising microcap companies, the importance of finding exceptional management teams, and his approach to portfolio management. We cover:- What defines a microcap stock and the size of the microcap universe- The concept of "intelligent fanatics" and its importance in small company investing- Why profitability and management quality are crucial filters- How Ian approaches position sizing and portfolio concentration- The importance of setting proper capacity constraints in microcap investing- Why turnover can actually be beneficial in microcap portfolios- Red flags for individual investors to watch out forWhether you're an experienced investor or just getting started, this conversation offers valuable insights into an often overlooked corner of the market where significant opportunities can still be found.
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In this episode, we are joined by Simplify Asset Management's Mike Green. We build on our previous episodes with Mike where we discussed his research on the impact of passive investing on the market and focus on its practical implications and how it impacts how investors construct their portfolios. We discuss the types of equity strategies that would benefit the most from the rise of passive, whether a factor could be constructed based on Mike's research, different strategies that might hedge a potential market decline triggered by passive and a lot more.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Larry Swedroe to tackle some of the most pressing issues in investing today.We dive deep into topics that are on many investors' minds, including:Is value investing still effective in today's market?How is the rise of passive investing impacting market efficiency?Should we be concerned about market concentration?Is international diversification still important?What role will artificial intelligence play in investing?Larry brings his decades of experience and research to bear, challenging common assumptions and offering nuanced perspectives that often go against conventional wisdom. We explore the importance of maintaining a long-term view, the dangers of recency bias, and why Larry believes hyper-diversification across multiple asset classes may be beneficial for investors.We also discuss factor investing, the increasing role of alternatives, and how individual investors can approach portfolio construction in our evolving market landscape.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Ben Carlson, Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth and author of the popular investing blog "A Wealth of Common Sense." We discussed his insightful article "15 Ways to Lose Money in the Markets," which outlines major mistakes investors make and how to avoid them.We explore a variety of topics, including:- The dangers of market timing and why it's so difficult to get right- Why investors shouldn't blindly follow advice from billionaires or pundits- The importance of not overreacting to short-term market volatility- How to approach active vs. passive investing strategies- The pitfalls of trying to get rich overnight and the value of long-term investing- Why it's crucial to avoid selling during bear markets- The risks of being overly pessimistic about markets and the economyBen provided valuable insights on each of these topics, emphasizing the importance of having a long-term perspective, avoiding big mistakes, and sticking to a well-thought-out investment plan. This conversation offers valuable lessons for investors at all levels, from beginners to seasoned professionals.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility Advisors for an in-depth discussion on the current state of markets and the global economy. We explore:- How geopolitical events in the Middle East and Ukraine are impacting markets and risk- Cem's views on inflation, recent Fed actions, and market flows- The impact of options positioning and market structure on volatility- Cem's outlook for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024- Historical patterns around elections and how they may apply today- Thoughts on the rise of passive investing and potential shifts ahead- Perspectives on AI as both a productivity driver and investment themeCem shares his unique insights on how the current market backdrop compares to other periods of elevated populism and inflation, and what that could mean for returns and investor behavior going forward.
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In this episode, Matt sits down with Brent Donnelly, author of "50 Trades in 50 Weeks: One Year of Good Ideas, Dumb Mistakes, and Timeless Trading Lessons". Brent spent close to a year conducting a unique experiment where he created and executed one unique trade every week across a wide variety of markets and asset classes. We discuss what he learned from the experience. We also delve into the concept of edge in investing and the challenges of maintaining one in evolving markets, the importance of narrative, the challenges of transitioning from backtesting to live trading, the crucial role of adaptation in markets and a lot more.
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In this episode, we dive deep into the world of options and their impact on market dynamics. We start with an "Options Dealer Flows 101" primer, explaining key concepts like delta hedging, gamma, charm, and vanna to help viewers understand how options flows can drive stock prices.We then analyze the current market situation heading into the September 2024 options expiration, one of the biggest of the year. We explore the outsized influence of Nvidia options activity, discuss potential outcomes from the upcoming FOMC meeting, and examine how bond-equity correlations are shifting.We break down why understanding options flows is crucial even for long-term investors who don't trade options themselves. Using real-world examples, we illustrate how options positioning can create market volatility and reversals around key dates.Whether you're an options trader or just want to better understand what's moving markets, this episode provides valuable insights into the hidden forces shaping stock prices. Join us as we unpack the complex world of options and their far-reaching effects on the broader market.SPOTGAMMA'S NEW PRODUCT - TRACE THE MARKEThttps://spotgamma.com/trace-the-market-excess-returns/?aff=Excess
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research and YardeniQuickTakes.com. Ed is one of the most accurate and respected Wall Street strategists, and we were excited to discuss his views on the economy, markets, and forecasting.
We covered a wide range of topics, including:Ed's outlook for inflation and the economyWhy he believes we could be entering a "Roaring 20s" period for the stock marketHis thoughts on why we might see fewer Fed rate cuts than many expectThe characteristics that make a good economic forecasterThe potential impact of AI on the economyHis views on the upcoming election and its market implicationsThe long-term underperformance of value vs growth stocksEd's approach to sector allocation and market breadth
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with our good friend Adam Butler, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of ReSolve Asset Management. We cover a lot of ground, including: The challenge of distinguishing investment edge from noise over typical investing lifetimesThe concept of return stacking and how it allows investors to increase portfolio diversificationThe process of determining sources of return to stack on top of stock and bond portfoliosThe impact of passive investing flows on market dynamics and fundamentalsPerspectives on whether AI will significantly boost economic productivity and GDP growthAs always, Adam offers thoughtful and sometimes contrarian views on these complex subjects, drawing on his extensive experience in quantitative investing and portfolio management.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with NYU professor Aswath Damodaran to discuss his new book on the corporate life cycle and get his insights on a wide range of investing topics.We cover:- How companies age and why they struggle to act their age- The importance of storytelling in valuation- Aswath's thoughts on factor investing and its limitations- The rise of passive investing and its impact on markets- Market concentration and the dominance of big tech companies- How Aswath approaches his own investing decisions- The potential impact of AI on investing and valuation- Why Aswath has never attended the Berkshire Hathaway annual meetingAswath shares his unique perspectives on these topics, blending academic rigor with practical insights. He also offers his advice for the average investor, emphasizing the importance of focusing on preserving and growing wealth rather than chasing outsized returns.Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, this wide-ranging conversation offers valuable food for thought on navigating today's complex markets.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jason Buck of Mutiny Funds to examine the idea of stocks for the long run and some potential challenges to it. We discuss:- Why the impressive historical returns of the US stock market may be an outlier- The importance of looking at real returns vs nominal returns- How to build a diversified portfolio to handle different economic scenarios- The concept of "fractal diversification" in portfolio construction- Rethinking sustainable withdrawal rates in retirement- The pros and cons of using leverage in a diversified portfolio- Unconventional investing beliefs that go against the mainstreamSEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.com
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Andy Constan, founder of DampedSpring . We cover a wide range of topics, including recent market volatility, the broader economic outlook, and Andy's perspectives on inflation and monetary policy. Andy shares his framework for analyzing deleveraging events, emphasizes the importance of thinking in probabilities for market outcomes, and discusses potential long-term impacts of factors like AI and deglobalization on the economy. We explore his views on different economic scenarios and the Federal Reserve's actions. As always, Andy provides nuanced insights into market analysis and investment decisions, making for a thought-provoking conversation.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Meb Faber, founder of Cambria Investment Management, to discuss his unconventional views on investing that often go against mainstream opinions. We explore a wide range of topics, including the Federal Reserve's performance, dividend investing strategies, international diversification for U.S. investors, trend following, and the relationship between interest rates and stock market valuations. Throughout our conversation, Meb challenges common investing beliefs and provided evidence-based perspectives on various aspects of the market. We all can benefit from challenging our own strongly held investing beliefs and we hope this episode will help you do that as it did for us.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, our good friend Matt Ziegler interviews retirement planning expert Wade Pfau. They discuss key concepts in retirement income planning, including the 4% rule, variable withdrawal strategies, and Pfau's "safety first" approach. They discuss Wade's work on retirement income styles and the RISA (Retirement Income Style Awareness) framework he developed to help retirees and advisors determine appropriate strategies. They also explore topics like the benefits of delaying Social Security, the role of annuities in retirement planning, and managing sequence of returns risk. Wade also shares insights on tax-efficient withdrawals, evolving retirement challenges, and balancing frugality with enjoying life in the present.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we take a deep dive into value investing with our good friend Tobias Carlisle. We discuss the recent outperformance of small cap and value stocks, tackle the challenges of long periods of underperformance for value strategies, and examine how Tobias constructs his portfolios. We delve into his process for selecting stocks, including his focus on companies trading at discounts using the Acquirer's multiple and his approach to portfolio diversification. Our conversation also touches on the dominance of large tech companies and whether their outsized returns can continue. Throughout our discussion, Tobias emphasizes the importance of patience, skepticism about growth projections, and prioritizing survival over maximizing returns when investing.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research about his unique systematic approach to analyzing markets. We explore his outlook for the second half of 2024, discussing topics like the future of the 60/40 portfolio, inflation trends, labor market indicators, earnings expectations, and the impact of AI on productivity. Warren shares insights on market breadth, his newly launched quality-driven ETF strategy, and interesting perspectives on seasonality and retail sentiment. We also touch on his approach to combining systematic and discretionary investing methods. This wide-ranging conversation offers valuable insights for investors navigating the current market environment, showcasing Warren's ability to think outside the box and identify unique market opportunities.
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In this episode we have a fascinating discussion with Mike Green of Simplify about the ongoing impact of passive investing on markets. Mike shares insights from recent academic research supporting his thesis and discusses how the risks of passive may play out over time. We also explore potential risks from increased options usage and the short volatility trade. In the second half, we turn to the economy. Mike provides his views on inflation, recession risks, and Fed policy. He explains his concerns about bifurcation in the economy and markets, with different segments experiencing very different conditions. We conclude by discussing Mike's approach to hedging credit spread risks. Overall, Mike offers his usual thought-provoking perspectives on a wide range of market dynamics and risks.
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In this episode from our sister podcast Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dive into the key lessons we took from our recent conversation with Rick Ferrii on Excess Returns.
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We explore Rick's approach to simple, low-cost investing and discuss how his insights apply to various investment strategies, including factor investing. We cover topics such as favoring simplicity, the enduring relevance of the 60/40 portfolio, the importance of fees, and looking to history for guidance. Throughout the discussion, we relate Rick's ideas to our own experiences in quantitative investing and financial planning, offering our perspectives on how these principles can be applied in practice. We also have some fun connecting each lesson to a KISS song. Our goal is to break down Rick's wisdom and show how it can benefit investors across different approaches and philosophies.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into the world of macroeconomics with Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds. We explore a wide range of topics, including inflation, the Federal Reserve's policies, and the overall state of the economy. Bob shares his insights on how market price targets can be evaluated from a fundamental perspective and discusses the role of gold in a diversified portfolio. We also touch on the complexities of investing in hedge funds and the impact of fiscal policies on market dynamics.
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