Episodes
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This week we discuss whether the Fed made the right decision, the post-FOMC volatility spike, and the China risk to markets. We also delve into the labor market, the 1998 framework for today’s economy, 2025 expectations, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DPQNetklHAXhw6bAJwRkD0qjeuE0klyk/view?usp=sharing
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
—
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
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Timestamps
(00:00) Introduction
(03:03) Why The Fed Did The Right Thing
(06:36) Is Inflation Rolling Over?
(12:01) Trump Policy Impact
(14:16) Explaining The Volatility Spike
(20:02) 2025 Monetary Policy Outlook
(22:02) Mapping The Market Rotation
(27:43) VIX & Market Positioning
(31:46) China Risk
(33:42) Ads
(35:36) Systematic Volatility
(37:50) China Structural Issues & Stimulus
(39:54) Bond Yields Vs Equities
(43:31) 2025 Rate Cutting Path
(46:54) Labor Market & Supply Shocks
(51:04) Economic Optimism & Lending
(52:35) Growth & Oil Outlook
(54:58) Bessent Economic Plan
(57:15) 1998 Framework
(59:55) Productive Capacity Boom
(01:03:04) End-Of-Year Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss the latest Fed decision, its December economic projections, and what to expect from markets going into 2025. We also delve into why he expects way more than two rate cuts next year, why he’s bearish on US equities in 2025, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Joseph Wang: https://x.com/FedGuy12
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
__
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:44) Hawkish FOMC Conference
(06:21) Immigration Impact
(09:50) 2025 Surprises
(12:34) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs
(15:01) What Is The Fed Thinking?
(20:25) Peak Hawkishness
(21:59) Long-Term Rates
(23:25) SEP As A Psychological Tool
(25:34) Ads
(27:27) Fed Surveys & Politics
(29:15) The Neutral Rate
(31:13) How The Fed Gauges Restrictiveness
(32:57) Reverse Repo
(38:38) Treasury Coupon Issuance
(40:25) Equities & The Dollar
(44:01) Gold & Crypto
(45:54) Long Bonds, Commodities, & Inflation
(50:28) Main Takeaways
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Missing episodes?
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This week we discuss the small cap trade, the upcoming Fed decision, and whether inflation risks are overblown. We also delve into China’s balance sheet recession, Bitcoin & MicroStrategy, housing affordability, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qTKN9-iNXNqFBgZSx03BFmi24BiaCeQv/view?usp=sharing
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
__
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(03:31) Small Business Optimism & Trump Trades
(07:58) Mag7 Blow Off Top?
(09:42) Unwind In Momentum Factor
(11:18) China Balance Sheet Recession
(13:34) Small Caps, Liquidity, & The Dollar
(15:30) Dovish Fed
(16:51) Labor Market & Claims
(21:38) Fed Policy & Global Easing
(26:00) Rate Steepening
(27:13) Ads
(29:15) Trump Peace Dividend
(32:51) Inflation & CPI
(36:22) Continuing Goldilocks
(39:52) Bitcoin
(43:50) MicroStrategy & Convert Financing
(50:53) Vol Controllers
(53:48) Geopolitics
(55:23) Cash Bubble
(57:07) New Credit Cycle
(59:17) Housing Affordability
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Warren Mosler joins the show to discuss the counterintuitive impact of that Federal Funds rate, the impact of government spending, and the economics of trade and tariffs. We also delve into the shifting duration of US debt, whether deficits matter, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Warren Mosler: https://x.com/wbmosler
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
__
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:41) Warren’s Macro Overview
(06:19) Understanding The Neutral Rate
(14:16) Fed Funds & Inflation
(21:14) Rate Cuts Are Cooling Inflation
(22:54) Ads
(25:02) Rate Hikes Are Stimulative
(27:32) Deficit Spending Is Money Printing
(28:27) Taxes & Government Spending
(31:56) The Effect Of Monetary Acronyms
(34:29) The K-Shaped Economy
(37:29) Zero Rate & Asset Bubbles
(39:05) Politics & The Oil Market
(41:29) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs
(49:41) Taxes, Unemployment, & Financing More Stuff
(56:38) Does The Deficit Matter?
(58:42) Impact Of Shifting Debt Duration
(01:01:14) The Bid For Duration
(01:04:57) Warren’s Trading
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week we discuss the November jobs report, the Fed’s cutting path, and the goldilocks scenario for 2025. We also delve into the different R* models, MicroStrategy, the Milken moment for crypto, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows
Capital Flows Substack: https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TxUrZZsIWtXdqbDS-DDJL7EduaP_pdpE/view?usp=sharing
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
—
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:44) Post-Thanksgiving Catch Up
(03:33) November Non-Farm Payrolls
(08:31) Economic Slowdown or Stability?
(10:20) Debating The Fed’s Cutting Path
(16:51) Hot Economy Vs Growth Scare
(24:24) Macro Analysis & Shorting Oil
(30:35) Ads
(32:38) We Are In Goldilocks
(36:29) Stocks Vs Commodities
(38:12) Inflation Turning Point
(39:40) Different R* Models
(46:07) History Of Junk Bonds
(48:11) Milken Moment For Crypto
(52:11) Monetizing Volatility
(53:26) Bitcoin & Evolving Options Market
(56:40) MicroStrategy Risks
(01:03:23) Enhancing Yield With Volatility
(01:06:13) Debating Bitcoin’s Future
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Dan Tapiero joins the show to discuss why he’s unbelievably bullish on the macro, his introduction to Bitcoin & blockchain, and the US dollar. We also delve into the regulatory changes he’s most excited for, the generational shift upon us, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Dan Tapiero: https://x.com/DTAPCAP
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
__
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you’re an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:22) Dan's Background
(08:10) Introduction To Bitcoin & Crypto
(16:48) Bitcoin, Sovereigns, & Regulation
(20:42) Most Exciting Regulatory Changes
(23:19) MicroStrategy's Bold Play
(25:14) Ads
(26:58) Macro Overview
(33:01) Unbelievably Bullish
(38:17) Generational Shift
(41:07) Keep A Long-Term View
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Michael Kao joins the show to discuss why the Fed rate cuts were a mistake, the impact of the dollar wrecking ball, and whether an inflation resurgence is possible. We also delve into the December Fed decision, the oil market, and much more. Enjoy!
__
Follow Michael Kao: https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
__
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:05) Powell's Policy Mistake
(10:02) Why The Fed Cut 50 Bps
(14:04) Reason For Economic Resurgence
(17:56) The Dollar & Fiscal Red Bull
(26:24) Ads
(28:26) Inflationary Concerns Maxed Out?
(34:49) The Dollar Wrecking Ball
(44:29) December Fed Decision
(47:14) The Oil Market
(52:01) Peace Dividend
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week we discuss how to think about managing risk, whether inflation fears are overpriced, and embracing the market rotation. We also delve into the shift in global collateral, the power of volatility, and much more. Enjoy!
—
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_GFJHScbL7EHAXDmO9Xy-QFt8fgNWGP1/view?usp=sharing
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
__
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:14) MicroStrategy/Bitcoin Craze
(06:26) Risk Management Strategies
(17:30) Are Inflation Fears Overpriced?
(25:48) Ads
(27:32) Volatility Seasonality
(30:11) The Bullish Market Rotation
(40:35) Shift In Global Collateral
(52:21) Volatility Is Vitality
(56:36) Cyclicality, Liquidity, & Debasement
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week we discuss the Fed’s cutting path, Powell’s speech, and managing crypto market euphoria. We also delve into whether we’ve seen the peak in the dollar and yields, the factors driving the Fed, and much more. Enjoy!
—
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/15P0IaQJQajBm35qCu4e564YWueVRbV5B/view?usp=sharing
__
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:37) Revisiting View Of The Economy
(03:42) Fed Cuts & Powell Speech
(09:55) Peak In Dollar & Yields
(13:38) Government Spending & DOGE
(19:02) China, Japan, & The Dollar
(22:23) Small Caps Vs Large Caps
(24:56) Ads
(26:29) Managing Crypto Euphoria
(33:24) Bullish Market Signals
(37:41) Stifling Volatility
(40:41) Tactical Outlook For Bitcoin
(43:35) Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook
(48:16) Inflation & Potential For Recession
(53:34) Differentiating Assets
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Stephen Miran joins the show to discuss Trump’s potential economic policies, the current economic imbalances in global trade, and the economics of tariffs. We also delve into how currency moves can offset tariffs, a potential Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar, and much more. Enjoy!
__
Follow Stephan Miran: https://x.com/SteveMiran
Stephan’s New Paper: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/our_research
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
__
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:27) Stephen's Background
(02:34) Context Behind The Paper
(04:51) Economic Imbalances In Global Trade
(09:15) Consequences Of Having The Reserve Currency
(11:26) Consequences Of US Share Of Global GDP Declining
(14:21) Financial Extraterritoriality & Tariffs
(17:28) Economics Of Tariffs
(25:37) Currency Offsetting
(32:25) Ads
(33:58) Trump's Economic Policies
(45:46) Varied Application Of Tariffs
(49:18) Dollar Devaluation
(55:35) The Role Of The Fed & Treasury
(01:01:46) The Big Picture
(01:03:43) Trump's Impact On Markets
(01:06:43) Closing Remarks
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, George Robertson joins the show to discuss why he thinks there is no monetary policy, the changing reaction function of the Fed, and how fiscal is driving nominal GDP. We also delve into the implications of an absent Fed, the real risk-free rate, and much more. Enjoy!
__
Follow George Robertson: https://x.com/BickerinBrattle
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
__
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:11) The Fed Doesn't Exist
(06:58) Neo Wicksell Policy Shift
(14:14) Forward Guidance
(15:54) Summarizing George's Position
(17:50) Normalizing Fed Funds
(21:03) There Is No Monetary Policy
(33:28) Ads
(35:00) There Is No Monetary Policy (Continued)
(37:18) What Is Driving The Economy?
(45:09) Implications Of An Absent Fed
(49:51) What Stage Are We In?
(53:01) The Real Risk-Free Rate
(01:01:23) Economic Outlook
(01:06:10) Learn More About George's Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week we discuss the impact of the election, the Fed’s interest rate decision, and the post-election trading themes. We also delve into shorting gold, Bitcoin’s all-time high, and much more. Enjoy!
—
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GXSr4CfY6aBPYd0z5UqZCIco0MBmMaVb/view?usp=sharing
—
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
—
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:27 Election Outcome
04:43 The Shift In Media & Polling
09:09 Unity Or More Fracturing?
15:53 Market Impact Of Election
23:04 Ads
24:18 Market Impact Of Election (Continued)
25:35 Offsides Hedging
30:40 Powell & The Fed
36:37 December FOMC Meeting
40:47 2025 Themes To Watch
44:39 Short Gold?
46:46 Crypto & Bitcoin All-Time Highs
52:19 New Market Regime
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Bob Elliot joins the show to discuss the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, the ongoing "over easy" monetary policy, and the election’s impact on the Fed and markets. We also delve into the labor market, fiscal deficits, and much more. Enjoy!
—
Follow: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.
Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:31) FOMC Takeaways
(02:48) Is Policy Restrictive?
(07:20) Are Cuts Fairly Priced?
(09:54) Cuts Are Coming No Matter What
(12:39) Over Easy Monetary Policy
(15:40) Quantitative Tightening
(18:24) What The Fed SHOULD Do
(22:20) Ledger Ad
(23:05) The Labor Market
(26:33) Election Impact On The Fed
(31:40) Can The Fed Tame Inflation?
(35:22) Fiscal Deficits
(42:51) Asset Allocation
(44:42) Credit Spreads
(46:39) Foreign Markets & Monetary Policy
(49:58) F*ck Valuations
(52:11) Follow Bob's Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Cem Karsan joins the show to discuss the election’s impact on markets, the new era of populism, and the post-election volatility smash. We also delve into Trump’s impact on the Federal Reserve, the annual re-leveraging effect in markets, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Cem Karsan: https://x.com/jam_croissant
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.
Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(10:11) Pollster Miscalculations
(12:03) Societal Impact Of Election
(19:49) Secular Vs Cyclical Impact
(27:52) Ledger Ad
(28:37) How Will The Fed React?
(33:03) Money Printing & The Dollar
(35:38) Volatility & Market Structure
(43:39) The Re-leveraging Effect
(52:06) Market Outlook
(56:32) Learn More About Cem's Work
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week we discuss the latest NFP report, the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, and whether the Trump trade is unwinding. We also delve into the moves in yields, MicroStrategy, and much more. Enjoy!
—
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
--
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Z6tgjtMhnVnGc9PLqwxAMd3TB2Gmx0Qu/view?usp=sharing
—
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.
Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:47) NFP Report Takeaways
(14:50) Quant Corner
(24:31) Ledger Ad
(25:16) Is The Trump Trade Unwinding?
(37:31) QRA
(48:16) Microstrategy: The Big Long
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Jurrien Timmer joins the show to discuss where we are in the current bull market, the push & pull between earnings and valuations, and the various influences on interest rates. We also delve into when the US debt level becomes a real problem, monetary hedges, and much more. Enjoy!
__
Follow Jurrien: https://x.com/TimmerFidelity
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.
Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:14) Where Are We in the Bull Market?
(04:22) Is this Bull Market Unique?
(07:07) Economic Resilience to Short Rates
(09:12) Quantitative Tightening & Liquidity
(12:39) Election Impact on Markets
(15:54) Unpacking the Move in Yields
(22:20) Outlook for Risk Assets
(26:39) Earnings vs Valuation
(34:52) Ledger Ad
(35:37) Did We Achieve A Soft Landing?
(37:32) Inflation Reacceleration Risk
(42:02) Gold, Bitcoin & Monetary Hedges
(45:40) Path To Negative Real Rates
(49:07) When Does The US Level Debt Actually Matter?
(56:42) Learn More About Jurrien
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week we discuss the short bond trade, volatility and excessive hedging, and the election probabilities. We also delve into MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, unrealized bond loss FUD, and much more. Enjoy!
—
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S9PUsLK1G_mqZxzYWrQ1tbEsrgTlecF7/view?usp=drive_link
—
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.
Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:33) Path of Interest Rates
(08:01) Is the Short Long Bond Trade Overdone?
(10:46) Overdone Currency Moves
(12:53) Implied Volatility vs Realized Volatility
(16:48) The MOVE Index & Election Hedging
(20:29) Election Probability Distribution
(27:17) Ledger Ad
(28:02) Yellen & Real Interest Rates
(31:10) Inflation Resurgence
(33:18) Global Coordination
(36:01) Macro Trading vs Ideas & the Bond Trade
(39:04) The Reality of a Trump Presidency
(47:04) Bitcoin & MicroStrategy
(52:19) Tesla & The Convert Market
(55:56) Unrealized Bond Losses FUD
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Eric Basmajian joins the show to break down the business cycle, how the cyclical economy impacts the broader economy, and the housing sector’s role in the business cycle. We also delve into the strong GDP numbers, how to measure the labor market and interpret revisions, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Eric Basmajian: https://x.com/epbresearch?lang=en
Follow Eric’s Substack: https://epbresearch.substack.com/
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:34) Breaking Down the Business Cycle
(09:24) Is this Cycle Different?
(12:24) Durable Goods Manufacturing & Motor Vehicles
(18:20) The Cyclical Economy
(21:52) The Housing Sector
(26:17) Reconciling Strong GDP with Cyclical Slowing
(30:44) Measuring the Labor Market
(34:41) Digging Into Jobless Claims
(39:35) Impact of Gig Economy on Jobless Claims
(42:02) Non-Farm Payrolls & Revisions
(47:12) The Unemployment Rate
(50:33) The Neutral Rate & Yield Curve
(57:46) Will Fed Cuts Reignite Inflation?
(01:01:32) Learn More About Eric's Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week we discuss election trades and Trump’s impact on markets, the number of Fed rate cuts currently priced in, and the ongoing bull market in gold. We also delve into the outlook for Bitcoin, how to measure a hard or soft landing, and much more. Enjoy!
—
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_VTM8KHaUHEG4hawqaDJNMF8TddDRM-t/view?usp=drive_link
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:42) Economy is Doing Well
(05:09) Earnings vs Economic Data
(08:29) Actionable Market Ideas
(11:38) Election & Trump Trades
(18:46) Small Caps & Gold
(21:34) Bitcoin & Microstrategy
(24:45) Contrarian Gold Take
(27:52) Trump Trade Hedges
(29:19) Fed Rate Cutting Path
(33:07) Economic Growth Under Trump
(38:12) Volatility & Election Hedging
(41:50) Measuring Hard & Soft Landings
(45:52) Economy Under Biden/Harris
(49:45) AI & The Future Economy
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Tony Greer joins the show to discuss his perspective on equities, the subsectors he’s trading, and his outlook on commodities. We also delve into the Trump trades, the metals market, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Tony Greer: https://x.com/TgMacro
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:40) Perspective on Equities, Rates, & Commodities
(06:38) Win-Win for Equities
(09:59) Election & Trump Trades
(13:48) A Trader's Market
(17:07) Fed & Macro
(20:09) Bond Yields & Volatility
(22:56) Market Sentiment Push & Pull
(25:09) Oil & Geopolitics
(30:31) Gold Market
(35:29) Precious & Base Metals
(37:57) FX Market
(39:04) Bitcoin & Crypto
(41:28) What Would Make Tony Bearish?
(43:03) Tony's Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - Show more
