Episodios
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In this episode, David Cervantes from Pinebrook Capital breaks down 2025’s shifting macro landscape, covering fiscal stimulus, inflation, Fed policy, and market positioning. He highlights strong US deficits supporting growth, labor market shifts from immigration, and the chances of a June rate cut. He compares US vs. global equities, fixed income challenges, gold’s role, and small caps’ struggles with sector-specific opportunities. Enjoy!
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Follow David: https://x.com/EconstratPB
Follow Pinebrook: https://www.pinebrookcap.com/
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
__
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$200M in aBTC minted.
Check out https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ to learn more!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:34) YTD Macro Recap
(06:13) The Big Macro Picture
(11:29) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Aptos)
(13:57) Rate Hike Dilemma
(15:57) Tuning Out the Noise
(18:10) Labor Market
(22:59) Fed Policy Reaction
(29:07) Growth Outlook
(31:20) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Aptos)
(34:30) Structural Bid to Assets
(37:36) US vs ROW
(45:20) Fixed Income Outlook
(47:42) Gold Outlook
(48:39) Small Caps vs Large Caps
(55:12) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
This week, we discuss the U.S. fiscal pivot, soaring deficits, and what it means for bond markets, Bitcoin, and global capital flows. We also debate whether Japan is the canary in the coal mine for sovereign debt risks, if QE is still politically viable, the housing market crisis, and why Bitcoin and foreign equities may be the only rational long-term trades. Enjoy!
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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zNQbt0lyXLmZQYf-56mneLpPxFNJ5y7h/view?usp=sharing
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
—
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$200M in aBTC minted.
Check out https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ to learn more!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:46) Big Beautiful Bill
(06:47) There’s One Trade
(09:39) Ads (Blockdaemon, Aptos, Arkham)
(11:21) Government Spending Problem
(14:10) US Economic Data
(16:55) Housing Market Crisis
(22:12) Global Collateral & JGBs
(27:21) Food Prices & Labor
(30:46) Ads (Blockdaemon, Aptos, Arkham)
(33:10) Bond Yields & Inflation
(38:32) Liquidity & Collateral Stress
(42:03) US Equities Still Safe?
(50:37) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
¿Faltan episodios?
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In this episode, author of the MacroTourist newsletter Kevin Muir joins the show to unpack why fiscal dominance is the defining force in today’s markets. He explains how MMT helped him rethink macro, why higher interest rates have recently been stimulative, and how the U.S. deficit is fueling both market resilience and long-term risk. We also dive into Trump's economic policies, potential capital controls, foreign capital repatriation, the implications for bonds and equities, and why Muir is positioning for FX volatility and a major private credit unwind. Enjoy!
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Follow Kevin: https://x.com/kevinmuir
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
__
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:56) Two Macro Buckets
(07:50) Higher Rates Stimulative?
(14:03) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger)
(15:52) Credit Ratings & Deficits
(18:46) Challenges of Cutting Deficits
(28:09) Capital Controls Next?
(33:02) Time to Own Volatility
(38:43) FX Volatility
(39:35) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger)
(41:57) Global Inflection Point
(49:12) US Bond Market
(55:11) Firing Powell & the Dollar
(57:28) Equities & Risk Premium
(01:01:26) US Outlook: Bullish ROW?
(01:06:41) Corporate Credit
(01:10:22) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
This week, the trio is back! We discuss the Trump-China tariff deal, Tyler’s structural framework driven by political utility markets, the tax bill, and widening fiscal deficits. We also dig into the repatriation of foreign capital, the yield curve's breaking point, and how AI-driven productivity might justify tech valuations. Enjoy!—Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx—Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/17yIKpOcGu-wv67vfeKu5I7Lo17hftwgk/view?usp=sharing—Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv—Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.Learn more: www.blockdaemon.comArkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworksEligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.—Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction
(01:05) Tyler’s Back!
(03:53) China Deal & Tyler’s Framework
(09:56) Inflation & Labor
(11:20) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham)
(12:17) US Trade & Debt Reality
(19:58) Generational Repatriation
(22:23) MicroStrategy Monetizing Volatility
(24:02) Inflation & Capital Controls
(27:05) Tax Bill & Deficit Expansion
(28:56) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham)
(30:27) Dollar & Bond Market Breaking
(35:32) Stock Flows, Volatility & Sentiment
(38:08) US Equities & AI
(43:14) Asian Currencies
(45:21) New System in Motion
(47:07) Short Bond Trade
(49:34) Final Thoughts
—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, James of Citrini Research returns to unpack his framework for understanding Trump-era macro policy, highlighting why the trade war pause was inevitable, the return of the three-legged stool, and how the "big beautiful bill" could fuel equities. He also outlines why robotics might be the next great secular investment, breaks down China’s robotics lead, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Citrini: https://x.com/Citrini7
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
__
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:54) Trump, Tariffs & Macro Overview
(10:48) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Ondo)
(12:54) Taxes, Deregulation & Fiscal
(18:45) Deficit, Defense & DOGE
(22:57) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Ondo)
(25:43) AI & Robotics
(35:28) Macro Impact of AI & Robotics
(39:08) Investing in Robotics
(44:52) China vs USA
(48:44) Subsidizing to Build Reliance
(51:53) Citrini's Core Thesis
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Luke Gromen joins the show to discuss the trade agreement with China, why the U.S. can’t afford real interest rates, and how the bond market—not policymakers—is now setting the rules. We also explore the hidden costs of decoupling from China, the inevitability of dollar devaluation, why any attempt at fiscal austerity is doomed, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Luke:
https://x.com/LukeGromen
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
__
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
—
(00:00) Introduction
(01:38) China Trade Deal
(08:09) Balance of Trade IS Currencies
(10:45) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo)
(12:08) Gold, Yuan & USD
(15:36) China Market & Competitive Edge
(20:06) Global Bifurcation
(24:51) Southeast Asia & Industrial Policy
(29:23) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo)
(31:23) US Fiscal Endgame
(35:56) Treasury Tools
(41:06) Why Issue Any Long Duration?
(43:40) The Fed’s Next Move
(45:38) Austerity Risk
(51:06) The Trend Hasn’t Changed
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week, we discuss our FOMC takeaways, Bessent making progress on a China trade deal, and how we’re thinking about the yield curve. We also delve into Fed QE misinformation, the bullish vs bearish risk-to-reward right now, the Taiwan dollar and Mag7 exodus, Bitcoin repeating last summer, and more. Enjoy!
—
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1V9LpLt45QpaeAz-YgFcQZLlwwxTmqZaZ/view?usp=sharing
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
—
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:29) FOMC Takeaways
(09:03) Strong Economic Data & Tariffs Sidelining Fed
(12:59) Unemployment & Immigration
(15:11) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ledger, Arkham, Ondo)
(17:17) Inflation & Fed Reaction
(22:28) Trading Cuts & the Curve
(25:49) Fed QE Misinformation
(29:42) Bessent & China Trade Deal
(35:11) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ledger, Arkham, Ondo)
(38:00) Bullish vs Bearish Catalysts
(44:34) Bitcoin & Global Liquidity
(46:51) Taiwan Dollar, Klauss & Mag7 Exodus
(55:21) Final Thoughts
—
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Craig Fuller joins the show to discuss how tariffs and Trump’s trade war are impacting shipping and supply chains. We dig into the differences between today and the COVID shock, the impact on small vs large businesses, bonded warehouses, the de minimis exemption, how this whole trade disruption is likely to unfold, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Craig:
https://x.com/FreightAlley
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
__
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworksEligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:06) Tariff Shock vs COVID
(07:31) Front Running & Stress Points
(11:20) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo)
(12:41) Inventory Buffers
(15:36) Impact on Small vs Large Businesses
(22:55) How Will All this Unfold?
(33:36) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo)
(35:36) Point of No Return?
(42:58) Tracking Shipping
(45:37) De Minimis Exemption
(48:45) Chinese Exporters
(51:51) Demand Destruction & Inflation
(53:25) Learn More About Craig’s Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro joins the show to discuss why he didn’t call for a recession in previous years but IS calling for one in 2025, why the labor market is looking bleak, and how tariffs, wages, and oil play into the inflation outlook. We also delve into what the Fed should be doing headed into the FOMC meeting, Fed independence & the future Chairman, how the long bond will react to a recession, and more. Enjoy!—Follow RenMac: https://x.com/RenMacLLC Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx —Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv—Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.comAt Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.—Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week, we discuss the strong jobs report and why next month is the time to look for weakness, the tariff strategy and how it’s bleeding into economic data, and people missing the forest for the trees in the Trump agenda. We also delve into the Treasury QRA, measuring Treasury market stress and why an intervention right now is a political decision, navigating bear market rallies, and more. Enjoy!
—
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NMv_qEEEV88_9ZH8epVSdwfpuv8jUgFn/view?usp=sharing
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
—
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:40) NFP & Labor Market
(10:31) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ondo)
(11:26) Tariffs & Economic Data
(17:38) Tariff Strategy
(19:59) Unpacking the Trump Agenda
(31:21) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ondo)
(32:38) Treasury QRA & Buybacks
(38:18) Treasury Market Stress & Demand
(44:52) Market Structure & Bear Market Rallies
(51:41) Risk Exposure is a Spectrum
(53:47) MSTR Outlook
—
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Bob Elliott joins the show to discuss the reversal of U.S Dollar capital flows after the announcement of Trump's tariffs. We deep dive into the U.S balance of payments problem, the changing economic order, why the U.S Dollar continues to get sold & how to structure a portfolio in this environment. Enjoy!
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Follow Bob: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
--
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
--
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
--
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:41) The Changing U.S Economic Order
(07:56) The Reversal Of U.S Dollar Capital Flows
(12:38) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)
(13:47) Why Did The U.S Outperform Pre-2025?
(18:05) Trump Tariffs = A Weaker Dollar, Assets & Growth
(23:45) Is The U.S In A Balance Of Payments Crisis?
(28:41) What Is The Bond Market Signaling?
(32:28) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)
(33:44) The End Of U.S Exceptionalism
(41:10) A New Regime For Markets?
(43:35) The U.S Economic Supply Shock
(47:03) Structuring Alpha vs Beta Portfolios
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week, Danny Dayan joins the show to discuss his “Doom Loop” of factors weakening the dollar and increasing inflation, why inflation expectations are unanchored, and the importance of remaining nimble in fast-moving markets. We also delve into how we’re seeing equities, rate cuts, and bonds through 2025, whether the Fed can rescue growth, why the inflation problem is worse than the growth problem and more. Enjoy!
—
Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
—
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:40) Beware the Doom Loop
(13:21) Ondo Ad
(13:48) Dollar Weakness or Normalization?
(16:15) Dollar & Bonds
(23:13) Hard Data & The Doom Loop
(25:06) Real Rates & Inflation
(31:48) Ondo Ad
(32:17) Inflation Expectations Are Unanchored
(38:13) Trading The Current Regime
(47:24) Gold Market
(49:18) Having Perspective In Fast-Moving Markets
(55:06) Can the Fed Rescue Growth?
(59:32) Inflation is the Bigger Problem
(09:30) What Will the Fed Do?
—
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Arthur Hayes joins the show to discuss Trump’s slew of concessions sending markets higher, the evolving US-China strategy, and Bitcoin decoupling from US assets as tariffs reduce the US capital account surplus. We also delve into Treasury buybacks, the Fed & SLR exemption, potential catalysts that would trigger QE, and more. Enjoy!
__
Follow Arthur: https://x.com/CryptoHayes
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
__
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:47) Trump Agenda & Concessions
(07:06) Tariffs & US-China Strategy
(13:39) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)
(14:50) Bitcoin Decoupling & Changing Trade Flows
(19:33) Fiscal Levers & Global Liquidity
(25:26) Treasury Buybacks
(30:49) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)
(32:04) Powell & The Fed
(34:43) SLR & Big Banks
(37:30) What Would Trigger QE?
(41:55) Structural Bid In Gold
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week, we discuss Powell’s hawkish speech, how to think about trading tariffs and the weaponization of the US account deficit, and whether we should expect a significant growth slowdown. We also delve into rate cuts & the yield curve, why Bitcoin is the trade after the trade, and more. Enjoy!
—
Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hLnf2szLRxPcUkIJwPyj34UbhHadON69/view?usp=sharing
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
—
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:45) Recent Fed Remarks
(06:26) Macro View and Tariff Trades
(16:27) Ondo Ad
(16:52) Market Positioning and Growth Slowdown
(27:30) Debating Growth & the Yield Curve
(35:30) Ondo Ad
(36:01) Debating Growth & the Yield Curve (Con't)
(36:59) Equities & Government Spending
(41:44) Bitcoin: The Trade After the Trade
—
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Arty & Gamma from the Market Radar team join the show to discuss their macro models and the importance of systematic trading, how they’re thinking about global markets today, and how deficits and tariffs are complicating the Fed’s cutting plans. We also delve into lessons for discretionary traders, what Market Radar wants to see to turn risk-on, and more. Enjoy!
—
Follow Market Radar: https://x.com/themarketradar
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
__
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:34) Market Radar Models
(04:12) Systematic vs Discretionary Macro
(07:23) Market Radar Systematic Approach
(14:31) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)
(15:42) Lessons for Discretionary Traders
(20:58) Weaknesses of Systematic Macro
(24:06) Argument Against Shorting
(27:57) Current Market Outlook
(34:13) Current Market Outlook (Con't)
(34:22) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)
(37:00) The Fed & Deficits
(46:42) Conditions to Turn Risk-On
(49:07) Catching Tops & Bottoms
(52:09) Final Thoughts
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Mel Mattison joins the show to discuss why he thinks we’re on the cusp of another inflationary bubble, the danger of growing entitlement obligations, and what more yield curve distortions mean for markets. We also delve into how gold could be on track for $50,000/oz, how all this will impact the FX market, and more. Enjoy!
__
Follow Mel: https://x.com/MelMattison1
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
__
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:35) Mel’s Spot-on Market Predictions
(06:30) Macro Drivers of the Market Downturn
(09:04) Treasury Data and Fiscal Impulse
(13:36) Ondo Ad
(14:01) Treasury Data and Fiscal Impulse (Con't)
(15:39) The Anti-Dollar Trade
(23:28) Social Security and Long-Term Economic Outlook
(28:47) Trump Admin’s Grand Agenda
(34:37) Federal Reserve and Inflation
(35:54) Ondo Ad
(36:24) Bond Market and Yield Curve Distortion
(39:32) Yield Curve Distortions & Inflation
(52:52) Currencies and Emerging Markets
(57:57) Gold & Bitcoin
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week, we join the Empire podcast to discuss where markets go next from here. After the market sold off in reaction to the Trump tariffs, we deep dive into the bull vs bear case in 2025, Trump's end game, building the perfect portfolio, Coinbase vs Robinhood, is Bitcoin really a safe haven asset & more. Enjoy!
—
Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz
Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel
--
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
—
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Turning Bearish In 2025
(10:490 Ads (Ondo, Ledger)
(12:00) How Trump Spooked Markets
(15:46) The Trump & Bessent Playbook
(19:13) The Bull vs Bear Case In 2025
(27:57) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)
(29:07) How To Position Under Trump 2.0
(32:46) Will The Fed Step In?
(36:46) What We Learnt From SVB’s Collapse
(39:43) What’s Trump’s End Game
(44:31) Is Bitcoin A Safe Haven?
(47:24) Building A Crypto Portfolio
(01:01:01) Long vs Short Vol
(01:04:04) Coinbase & Crypto Equities
—
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before even thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week, we discuss how we managed this insane week in markets, China and the evolving tariff strategy, and what’s going on with the bond market. We also delve into our expectations from the Fed, Secretary Bessent orchestrating policy behind the scenes, Bitcoin hitting ATHs in 2025, and more. Enjoy!
—
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cAWJKncxGgliZa54aTq08eCgn9Q-P8x1/view?usp=sharing
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
—
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:39) PMLS IV
(02:02) Navigating This Insane Market
(07:32) Key Market Drivers
(12:22) Ondo Ad
(12:48) China & Tariffs
(16:31) US Spending Problem
(20:33) Bond Market
(24:12) The Fed & Inflation
(29:40) Powell, Bessent & Fiscal
(32:39) Ondo Ad
(33:10) Navigating A Volatile Market
(38:55) Secretary Bessent Running Point
(42:50) Alternative Trade Restructuring Strategies
(48:59) Unpacking the Bond Market Put
(52:47) BTC ATHs in 2025
(56:02) Market Tailwinds
—
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Darius Dale of 42Macro joins the show to discuss Trump transitioning the US economy to a new paradigm, the potential for a recession and its impact on markets, and the threat of a debt refinancing air pocket. We also delve into why the Fed needs to transition to QE, how to approach portfolio allocation and risk management, and more. Enjoy!
—
Follow Darius: https://x.com/DariusDale42
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
—
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:06) Key Market Narratives
(04:03) Trump's Economic Vision
(13:28) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)
(14:39) Trump's Economic Vision (Con't)
(16:02) Technical vs. Actual Recession
(20:02) Credit Cycle and Market Positioning
(25:13) Market Pricing for Recession
(30:15) Fiscal Policy and Tax Cuts
(32:39) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)
(33:54) Federal Reserve's Mandates and QE
(37:26) Global Liquidity and Debt Refinancing
(43:50) Portfolio Construction and Risk Management
(47:34) KISS Portfolio System
(52:29) Managing Different Opinions & Systematic Investing
—
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week, Tony Greer and Jared Dillian from Macro Dirt join the roundup to discuss the fallout of Trump’s tariffs, what markets we’re eyeing during this meltdown, and how to manage risk as a trader. We also delve into commodities, tax cuts, Bitcoin’s resilience, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro
Follow Jared: https://x.com/dailydirtnap
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Forward Guidance x Macro Dirt
(01:32) Unpacking Trump’s Tariffs & Market Reaction
(09:56) Commodity Markets
(15:04) Federal Reserve and Economic Data
(24:27) Market Volatility and Bear Market Rallies
(25:57) Risk Management Strategies for Traders
(30:00) Gold Miners and Commodity Markets
(33:25) Tax Cuts and Tariff Implications
(37:43) Bitcoin's Resilience
(42:53) Bond Price Action
(44:53) Weekend Plans
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - Mostrar más
