Episodes
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📈Canadian 2024 Budget Highlights with Mel Caouette📉
Welcome back.
We apologize for the inconsistent email and podcast schedule over the last few months. We will be back this summer in full force!
This week’s podcast brings back our most popular guest - Melissa Caouette. We talk about the Canadian Federal Budget and its impact on Canadian entrepreneurs, home owners new and old, and those looking to plan their financial lives.
Twitter links to reference for the pod:
* Professional Canadians impacted by the Capital Gains Inclusion policy.
* Incorporated people deciding on how to pay themselves post-budget policy changes.
* What the new budget means for Canadian Farmers.
* Budget Link that covers the housing portion of the policy.
Quick Market Update:
By now it should be clear to everyone that the Fed doesn’t have a specific plan for when they will cut rates this year. Powell keeps saying they are taking the data one month at a time and adjusting their view. This is why stocks rallied when the jobs number on Friday came well below estimates. A weakening jobs market improves the prospects for an earlier rate cut.
We are already starting to see some easing.
The pace of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction is slowing down.
The Treasury plans to start buying $2Bn worth of Treasuries weekly.
This is why the dips in the stock market continue to be bought.
Earnings season:
Two trends stood out so far – upside gaps often faded while downside gaps followed through. These are both bearish reactions. And yet, the indexes are holding relatively well.
SPY, QQQ, and IWM have made a couple of higher lows and higher highs in the past two weeks. Small caps are firmly back above their YTD VWAP.
SPY and QQQ rallied to their 50-day moving average.
Going above their Friday highs will likely lead to FOMO chasing as many market participants are underinvested. Losing Friday’s low will likely lead to a quick gap close.
In the meantime, Chinese stocks had a second strong week in a row. Sentiment towards Chinese names has been extremely bearish for a long time. F
We are in a market of stocks environment. The popular, well-known stocks have had some troubles this earnings season. They either gap up and then quickly close their gaps or gap down.
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* Great recap of the most recent Apple Event and Quarter:
* Justin Lin interviewed by YAV podcast:
* Market update from the guys at RenMac:
Best Links of The Week🔮
* “Trung offers up many examples of how the best athletes in the world across almost every sport are both learning and educating on YouTube. I have seen it in golf and I know if I had the time or inclination I could rapidly improve my game.” Youtube - The learning machine - Source: Trung Phan
* “Over the last thirty-plus years, each major technology wave, like the PC and then the Internet, evolved as a series of technologies in a tech value stack that came to define the full ecosystem with huge collective value over time.” Source: AI - Building Value Over Time
* Disney shares tumbled 9.5 percent on Tuesday even as it reported the first profit in its core streaming business since it leapt into a battle with [NFLX] five years ago. The Disney+ and Hulu streaming unit earned an operating profit of $47mn in the quarter to the end of March, compared with a $587mn loss a year earlier. Disney achieved the milestone months earlier than expected thanks to cost-cutting and the popularity of Hulu programs including Shogun and The Bear. But investors appeared to be more focused on a potential slowdown in the company’s theme parks." Source: FT
"Apple announced new versions of its iPad Air and iPad Pro tablet computers on Tuesday. They’re the first new iPad models Apple has released since October 2022. “This is the biggest day for iPad since its introduction,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said in a video posted on the company’s website." Source: CNBC
"The Biden administration has revoked export licences that allow Intel and Qualcomm to supply Huawei with semiconductors as Washington increases the pressure on the Chinese telecoms equipment company. The move by the US Department of Commerce affects the supply of chips for Huawei’s laptop computers and mobile phones." Source: FT
"TikTok sued the federal government on Tuesday over a new law that would force its Chinese owner, ByteDance, to sell the popular social media app or face a ban in the United States, stoking a battle over national security and free speech that is likely to end up in the Supreme Court." Source: NYT
"Reddit shares rallied 14% in extended trading on Tuesday after the company released quarterly results for the first time since its IPO in March. Revenue increased 48% to $243 million for the first quarter. Reddit reported 82.7 million daily active users for the period." Source: CNBC
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments, and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog, or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog, and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational, and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog, and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax, or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog, or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaims that any viewer of this website, blog, or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax, or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance, or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Joel’s unconventional career path
* How to start a business in your early years
* How to approach the ever changing technology market
* How to think about buying your first house
* Tips and tricks to networking
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Happy Easter weekend, everyone.
This weeks episode is a little bit different than our typical show. Part 1 of 2.
Joel is interviewed by Omid from the Second Floor Podcast.
It’s a wide ranging conversation about networking, investing, mentorship, leverage and the Canadian Economy.
If you care to hear Joel’s thoughts on the above subjects, we thinks it well worth your time to listen and subscribe to The Second Floor Podcast.
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* “Truly showing belief in others will buy them a ticket to someplace they never knew.” “Create a brand that people chase, don’t chase people with your brand.” Another gem of an episode on @patrick_oshag pod:
* A great podcast covering the new paradigm shift amongst big tech from Ben Thompson and Stratechery.
* The New Face of Military Technology with Peter Zeihan:
Best Links of The Week🔮
* Nvidia’s ACCELERATING AI Strategy. And a Podcast to go with it - Source: the 30 year overnight success story interview with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.
* The Concorde Jet vs. Boeing 747 - Source: Trung Phan
* "Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun said the standard version of the SU7 will sell for 215,900 yuan ($30,408) in the country — a price he acknowledged would mean the company was selling each car at a loss. Tesla’s Model 3 starts at 245,900 yuan in China. Lei claimed the standard version of the SU7 beat the Model 3 on more than 90% of its specifications, except on two aspects that he said it might take Xiaomi at least three to five years to catch up with Tesla on." Source: CNBC
* "Reddit shares are plummeting after experiencing a rally stemming from the social media company’s IPO last week. Shares closed Thursday at $49.30, falling below their closing price on Reddit’s first day of trading last week on the New York Stock Exchange. Earlier this week, Reddit disclosed in a corporate filing that CEO Steve Hoffman sold 500,000 shares, and Reddit COO Jennifer Wong also disclosed that she sold 514,000 shares." Source: CNBC
"Home Depot is placing an $18 billion bet that will take the retailer beyond its big orange stores. The home-improvement retailer said Thursday it would buy a company that sells goods for professional roofing and other building projects, branching out to grab more spending by big contractors and construction firms." Source: WSJ
Important Charts From the Last Week:
Crypto, commodities and bond charts courtesy of All Star Charts.
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Missing episodes?
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📈Alberta Budget Highlights📉
Welcome back.
This weeks podcast has a special guest: Melissa Caouette founder of Pocket Lobbyist and MC Consulting.
from her political newsletter:
On Thursday, February 29, 2024, Alberta’s Minister of Finance and President of the Treasury Board, Hon. Nate Horner, tabled the Government of Alberta 2024-27 Fiscal Plan: A Responsible Plan for a Growing Province.
TL;DR: Budget 2024 includes a modest $367 million surplus with revenues projected to be $73.5 billion. A relatively positive economic position when considered in the context of global uncertainty with 2.9 per cent projected real GDP growth. Population growth was significant this year but will lower slightly to 3.7 per cent in 2024-25.
Tax updates include a new electric vehicle tax and a new Land Ttitles Registration Levy. The government will increase cigarette and smokeless tobacco taxes and adopt the federal-provincial vaping tax framework. A campaign commitment to introduce the Alberta is Calling Attraction Bonus is also included. Education Property Taxes remain the same.
Here are the links to all the important budget documents for anyone interested in reviewing all the details:
* Minister Horner's Budget Address
* Fiscal Plan
* Capital Plan and Details By Ministry
* Business Plans
About Pocket Lobbyist
Pocket Lobbyist is an innovative, first-of-its-kind platform for government relations and public policy materials in Canada.
We offer innovative products that support organizations in anticipating, interpreting, and mitigating political risk, including a membership portal and cohort-based professional development opportunities.
After launching in 2022, Pocket Lobbyist is a trusted resource for some of Canada’s largest municipalities, economic development associations, non-profits, associations, lobbying firms, and private sector companies.
Twitter links to reference for the pod:
* Trevor Tombe on the 250B-400B Herritage fund
* Canada no longer one of the richest nations on earth
* Land transfer tax gets a huge tax overhaul
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* Richard Lewis was a legend and he passed this week. He will be missed,. This best of Richard Lewis on Letterman is fantastic:
* G2 Podcast:
* New Founders Pod:
Best Links of The Week🔮
* PRIME TIME: WHY NIGHT GOLF COULD EXPLODE IN POPULARITY: “There are about 16,000 golf courses in the United States, but less than one percent of them have lights. That could change in the coming years as many in the golf industry feel we are at the beginning of a night golf trend. “Source: here
* Nvidia CEO Jensen highlights Inference over Training AI: With the markets increasingly tuned to the potentially higher upcoming competition from other chip vendors for Nvidia in AI inference vs training, it’s notable that CEO Jensen Huang is making this a priority. Especially in terms of providing the street Nvidia metrics on this front. Source and detailed take: here.
* "Over and over again, Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook has been asked the same question: What is Apple doing about generative artificial intelligence? His answer: Stay tuned. Investors are getting impatient... That sentiment is why Apple’s decision to shift some employees into AI and cancel its electric-car project—one of the most widely anticipated potential tech products in a decade—was greeted with almost universal investor enthusiasm Tuesday." Source: WSJ
* "The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation rose in January at the fastest pace in nearly a year, helping explain policymakers’ patient approach to start cutting interest rates. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.4% from December, data out Thursday showed. From a year ago, it advanced 2.8%. Economists consider this to be a better gauge of underlying inflation than the overall index." Source: Bloomberg
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Super Bowl Economics
* Market update
* Underneath all time highs
* Rates aren’t coming down… now what?
* The power of AI and inference
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
Welcome back.
The Good
The most bullish thing I see out there for the stock market is the lack of new lows… Most stocks are holding and staying above their 52 week lows…
It's mathematically impossible for the stock market to get worse, go into a correction, or even think about the possibility of a bear market, without seeing an expansion in new lows first.
And we're just not seeing it.
The NYSE Composite went out last week at a new all-time high. And even the most short-term of new lows lists have yet to see any expansion.
The Bad
However, the bad thing is that there have been a number of bearish divergences adding up.
The stock market just entered what is historically one of the worst times to own stocks of the entire year, the new 52-week highs list has already dried up.
We are in nomansland.
The all time highs list peaked 2 months ago, and has been deteriorating with every new high you see in the S&P500 and Nasdaq (neither one closed at a new high last week).
US Treasury Bonds are falling off a cliff. When a $130 Trillion asset class is crashing, is your bet that it won't impact the stock market?
You're seeing Consumer Staples outpacing Consumer Discretionary stocks, which is what you normally see in the market right before a good rug pull.
And worst of all, the US Dollar is ripping higher. Over the past several years, when the Dollar is strong, stock are not…
The US Dollar is the only safe haven in this market. And Dollar Index Futures are up every week this year - 7 weeks in a row. All of these, in my opinion, are definitely bad for stocks.
The UGLY
This market is losing its leaders.
Adobe, arguably the most important software stock, is getting crushed.
The iShares Software Index Fund just got back to its former bull market highs from late 2021.
The most important stocks within the index are already rolling over.
If Software is falling, Apple and Microsoft are rolling over, and momentum is diverging everywhere, do you think the Tech Sector Index itself won't follow?
Remember, Technology represents 30% of the S&P500 and over 50% of the Nasdaq100 $QQQ.
Now, this is all to say that we cant possibly see the future and all these bearish signals could change in an instant.
We as investors and market participants must stay nimble.
Twitter links from the pod:
* Capital One buying Discover
* Lifestyle influencers are transitioning out of the business
* EV Leases are plummeting in price
* Raising Canes origin story
* Trevor Tombe talks about the Alberta herritage fund
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* The Legend Behind the Legend: This awesome interview was served up of Steve Williams who was Tiger Woods caddy for 13 years. Steve had the best seat in golf for 13 years. There are so many great stories on Tiger Woods’ crazy life, the one on how he got fired and on the legacy of Tiger Woods.
* The Compound brings back my favorite guest:
* B2 is the best new podcast in tech and investing. This episode was a phenomenal cruise around tech markets.
Best Links of The Week🔮
* "Nvidia’s surge to an all-time high is the biggest single-session increase in market value in history, besting Meta’s historic gain just three weeks ago. Shares of the chipmaker jumped 16% Thursday, adding about $277 billion in market capitalization and bringing its total market value near $2 trillion. The addition eclipsed the $197 billion gain made by Facebook-parent Meta at the start of the month." Source: Bloomberg
* "Japan’s benchmark stock average hit a record high Thursday after 34 years of waiting, and the reason mostly boils down to one word: profits. Japanese companies are making a lot of money, and they are handing out a lot of it to their shareholders. In contrast to 3½ decades ago, when Nikkei Stock Average record highs last made headlines, no bubbles or magical thinking are needed to justify the new peak." Source: WSJ
* "Social media company Reddit filed its IPO prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday after a yearslong run-up. The company plans to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “RDDT.” Its market debut, expected in March, will be the first major tech initial public offering of the year. It’s the first social media IPO since Pinterest went public in 2019." Source: CNBC
* "A patient implanted with Neuralink’s brain technology can now control a computer mouse just by thinking, the company’s founder Elon Musk said. ″[The] patient seems to have made a full recovery with no ill effects that we are aware of and is able to control the mouse, move the mouse around the screen just by thinking,” Musk said in a Spaces session on social media platform X. Neuralink is the billionaire’s startup, which says it has developed a brain implant designed to help humans use their neural signals to control external technologies. The company aims to restore lost capabilities such as vision, motor function and speech." Source: CNBC
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Good Good tournament with Grass Clippings
* Market update
* Canada betting too much on USA trade
* American exports
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
Welcome back.
Last Wednesday the Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq100 all closed at new all-time highs.
But the number of stocks on the NYSE that actually made new highs was a fraction of what it was last week…
Breadth is weak.
The indexes make new highs. The headlines focus only on that.
But then the actual new highs list is non-existent.
A sell off is beginning, we’re just not seeing it at the index level yet.
But, things can change at the drop of a hat.
The number of S&P 500 stocks above their 200 and 50dma is decreasing while the index is making new highs. This is how indexes topped in the past. The trouble is that timing a top is a lot tougher than capturing a bottom.
A bearish divergence can continue a lot longer than most expect and can resolve in two ways:
* We can see an expansion of the rally as more stocks participate. This happened last year in May and June.
* Or we can see a correction and most stocks pull back.
From where we stand, both scenarios are equally plausible right now.
More stocks joining the rally mean more and better opportunities in faster-moving stocks. A correction means lower prices in the strongest companies – so many investors are dreaming about buying pullbacks in the strongest semiconductor and software stocks. Any dips will offer better risk-to-reward opportunities.
As legendary investor, Peter Lynch said: “Far more money has been lost while preparing for a correction than during the corrections themselves”.
Twitter links from the pod:
* Trevor Tombe on Canadian resource investment
* Trevor Tombe on Canada betting too much on USA trade
* Chris Arnade talks about American exports
* Adam Sandler and Brad Pitt
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* BG2 podcast with Aaron Levie:
* Using the Apple Vision Pro:
Best Links of The Week🔮
* Todays luxuries are tomorrows commodities - “We're entering a world in which consumers will experience abundance in creativity and productivity, in their relationships and social experiences, and in personal growth across dimensions like education, wellness, and financial health. This will manifest in a new generation of AI-native consumer products and companies that grow faster and engage users more deeply than ever before”. Source: Gamma
* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank has shifted its focus toward deciding when to begin cutting interest rates, but that solid economic growth means officials didn’t have to rush that decision. Given recent economic strength, “we feel like we can approach the question of when to begin to reduce interest rates carefully,” Powell said during a rare television interview to be broadcast on CBS on Sunday night. Powell, speaking on “60 Minutes,” said officials were trying to balance the risks of leaving rates too high for too long, which could cause an economic slowdown, and of cutting rates too soon and allowing inflation to settle above the Fed’s 2% goal." Source: WSJ
* "Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk has been “surprised” by the readiness of European consumers to pay for weight-loss drugs from their own pockets, as the region’s largest company invests in new supply to meet runaway demand. The company’s weight-loss drug Wegovy and diabetes treatment Ozempic powered it to record sales in 2023 and a current market capitalisation of $508bn." Source: FT
* "Hawaiian Airlines is rolling out complimentary Wi-Fi via SpaceX’s Starlink on board commercial flights this week... the first major U.S. airline to offer the satellite-based service. “SpaceX has really cracked the code – literally, in terms of the technology – to be able to deliver a wide bandwidth of very high quality connectivity to an airplane with a global reach,” Peter Ingram, Hawaiian Airlines CEO, told CNBC." Source: CNBC
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Sports business update (Netflix $5B Deal with WWE)
* Inflation news and jobs data
* Market update
* META earnings
* AMZN earnings
* Vision Pro impacting culture
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
Welcome back.
We had a very exciting week in markets. There was some important US data that was released. QRA & RRP, FOMC and Big Tech earnings.
QRA - There was a net funding for US treasury and bills, which was a surprise and would be considered a headwind for equities.
FOMC - Many forecasters assumed that Quantitative Tightening (QT) would end in June, however, after this months meeting it’s quite clear that QT ending is no longer a certainty. There will be no rate cut in march.
In order to see a cut, Jerome Powell will need to see a few CPI prints that negate the benign inflation that we have seen over the last few quarters.
This is all to say, that its clear we are in a fairly precarious place with regards to equity pricing. We are priced for a perfect “no landing'“ situation.
AI and Big Tech:
Big Tech AI driven Earnings Season Momentum continues: Meta took the investor crown with its quarterly results, with the stock up almost 20%, with Amazon also seeing a double digit positive reaction. Microsoft, logged some gains initially post announcement gains, but gave them up later in the week. Apple and Google had modestly muted reactions, Apple for weakness in China, and Google for continued concerns on AI impact on its Search business. Lots in the weeds to parse for each of the ‘Magnificent 7’, but overall, the AI sentiment tailwinds continue.
How to think about the evolution of culturally important technology: Vision Pro
If one looks back at Apple’s ‘platform’ record over the decades, the company is generally never the first in a hot new tech area. But when it does make its move, it’s typically a committed, focused, and multi-year bet on making it a vertically integrated ‘Best’. With an almost religious ‘attention to detail’, fusing both the hardware and software elements. With the North Star of the eventual user experience.
Let’s look at the broad strokes through tech history. Apple typically relabels the tech to whatever it wants. (This time it’s ‘Spatial Computing’ instead of ‘VR, AR or MR’).
Let’s look at this ‘late’ but eventually ‘best’ trend through Apple’s history:
* GUI (Graphical User Interface) pioneering Macs in the 1980s, bringing the world from the ‘Command Line’ of Microsoft’s MS-DOS to their eventual success with Windows 95 and beyond,
* to its Internet ‘built-in’ iMacs in 1997 when Steve Jobs ‘came back’ to Apple,
* to the iPod that revamped the Music industry from albums to buying music tracks individually, changing the habits of billions in how they consumed music,
* to of course the mobile phone with the iPhone in 2007 after Blackberry and many others had already ‘taken the lead’, redefining the ‘Smart Phone’, and establishing the ‘App Store’ and App Economy that now sees over a trillion in business activity per year,
* to the Airpods in the ‘Wearables’ space, overtaking prior wired and wireless efforts,
* to the Apple Watch, which continued the ‘Wearables’ progression from others, painstakingly iterating over many years,
* to now the Vision Pro in headsets that have seen billions in expenditures by everyone from Meta/Facebook with Oculus/Quest headsets to Microsoft, Sony, and so many others.
Twitter links from the pod:
* AMZN earnings recap
* META earnings recap
* Oil stocks to own forever
* Real estate development story that will blow your mind
* Bill Gross talks about QT and QE
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* How to think about New All Time HIGHS - from the Compound
* How to think about product pricing - Invest Like The Best
Best Links of The Week🔮
* "After decades in the shadows of record-shattering Wall Street stocks, a transformation of the euro-area’s index of blue-chip companies looks to have finally set the benchmark on course toward a new high. Europe may lack a “Magnificent Seven” tech cohort of its own, but a pared-down version of that phenomenon has emerged. The Euro Stoxx 50 has just hit its highest since 2001, with the latest leg of the surge powered by blowout earnings from the region’s two biggest tech stocks, ASML and SAP." Source: Bloomberg
* "Reddit is weighing feedback from early meetings with potential investors in its initial public offering that it should consider a valuation of at least $5 billion... even as it is estimated below that figure in the volatile market for shares of private companies. The San Francisco-based social media company and its advisers are targeting a valuation in the mid-single-digit billions... The ultimate figure will depend on the IPO market’s nascent recovery... Reddit is considering a possible listing as soon as March." Source: Bloomberg
* "Meta Platforms is hoping Apple’s launch of the Vision Pro can reinvigorate its $50 billion metaverse effort, which consumers have yet to widely embrace. The social-media company wagered its reputation on the technology in 2021... Three years later, Meta’s Reality Labs division accounts for less than 1% of overall revenue, and the company has struggled to expand the cache of its Quest devices beyond a niche market... On the eve of the arrival of Apple’s Vision Pro, which will hit U.S. stores Friday, executives at Meta are optimistic, believing the iPhone maker’s entry into the market will validate Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg’s gamble and draw more consumers." Source: WSJ
* "China has moved to officially limit short selling after informal efforts failed to stop a worsening stock market sell-off. Investors who buy shares will not be allowed to lend them out for short selling within an agreed lock-up period, the Shenzhen and Shanghai bourses said on Sunday... Regulators are coming under increasing pressure to halt the stock sell-off, which has been fuelled by uncertainty over the country’s economic growth prospects." - Source: FT
* "Big pharmaceutical companies like Bristol Myers Squibb, Merck and Johnson & Johnson face so-called patent cliffs that will put tens of billions of dollars in sales at risk between now and 2030. That refers to when patents expire for one or more leading branded products for a company, which opens up the door for competitors to sell copycats of those drugs, often at a lower price. Some companies appear to be well-prepared to offset some of the losses from upcoming patent expirations." - Source: CNBC
* "The Biden administration, eager to highlight a signature economic initiative as elections approach, is expected to award billions of dollars in subsidies to Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, or TSMC, and other top semiconductor companies in coming weeks to help build new factories. The grants are part of the $53 billion Chips Act, intended to reshore production of advanced microchips and fend off China, which is fast developing its own chip industry." - Source: WSJ
* "Cathie Wood has said her tech-focused Ark stock market fund “paid its dues” with two years of steep declines, before roaring back last year with one of the industry’s best performances. Wood’s $8bn Ark Innovation exchange traded fund recorded a 68 per cent gain last year, putting it within the top one per cent of its peers, according to data from Morningstar. That rebound came after a 50 per cent annualised loss across 2021 and 2022, when sentiment soured against the high-growth companies it had backed." - Source: FT
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Sports recap
* Market update
* MSFT Co-pilot launches and surpasses APPL in market cap
* Amazon bails out regional sports networks
* Benson Boone Soft Launches his hit single Beautiful things
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
Welcome back.
Lets quickly start with interest rates and the Fed/Bank of Canada:
The Fed/BofC dot plot assumes 3 cuts in 2024.
3 factors drive that assumption
* Inflation falling
* Real GDP falling
* Monetary policy
Lately the market and policy makers have focused entirely on #1. BUT 2. And 3 matter as well.
To validate the 3 cuts, GDP is projected to fall from 2.6 to 1.4. If it doesn't then almost all of the cuts in 2024 would not likely manifest. Last year we saw great progress in fighting back down inflation. This year will be about how the real economy handles current borrow rates.
Will gdp fall a lot? Or will it be stronger for longer?
Market technicals:
I think it's important to reiterate that if the most important sectors are holding their key breakouts, it's hard to be too bearish on the overall market at this stage.
First is Technology - the largest weighting in the S&P500 representing almost 30% of the entire Index. Tech is also 50% of the Nasdaq.
You're seeing similar from Industrials which is historically highly correlated with the S&P500 among all S&P sectors.
The importance of Homebuilders needs little introduction. But also keep in mind that this is one of the key groups within the Consumer Discretionary sector:
We don't have bull markets around here without Financials. So if the NYSE Broker Dealers Index is above those former cycle highs, like all of these others, it's hard to be too bearish on equities:
And finally, the strength out of Semiconductors cannot be overstated. As $TSM released better than expected 2024 guidance.
Twitter links from the pod:
* Roy Maddox on 2024 expectations
* Brent Beshore talks small business investing/characteristics
* Ram talks demographics, growth and inflation
* Nate Silvers on the population Bomb
* How to grow/market/scale an ecommerce business
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* Bob Elliott talks about what the Fed needs to see in order to see rate cuts in 2024:
* Beautiful Things - Benson Boone
* Sam Altman and Bill Gates talk the future of AI:
Best Links of The Week🔮
* The Red Sea, a key global trade route, faces material disruption from Iran-backed Houthi rebel attacks on commercial ships. - FT
* In the world of media and technology, there is something that is always in play…the bundling and unbundling of things. - Ben Thompson has covered this over the years.
* I love this Morgan Housel piece titled ‘Information That Would Get Your Attention’.
* The Apple Macintosh is 40 years old (a true reminder to let the Vision Pro breathe)
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Sports roundup
* NFL success
* Market update
* Bitcoin ETF
* Tiger and Nike part ways
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
Lets start with what happened last week.
Bonds traded down and equities traded slightly up.
But what matters to participants is the short end of the yield curve. And how interest rates are going to move as we trade through the year.
“If inflation falls towards target, unless they ease, they will be tight.” - Jerome Powell
What the market is betting on at he moment is that the inflation rate will fall to somewhere between 2.3%-2.5%. which will allow the fed to cut to 2% REAL.
Real interest rates are CPI minus the fed funds rate.
This is where the 4.3%-4.5% fed funds rate is coming from.
The problem is that CPI came in hotter than expected last week.
3.4% vs and expected 3.2%
A lot of people are still trapped in super short dated bills.
The reinvestment risk for most participants is enormous.
Most investors are looking to enter market slightly lower than where we are right now.
Moving forward. Will inflation drift towards target?
At the moment, the proper positioning is likely 60:40 (equity:bonds) for most wealthy long term investors.
40% in 3-4 year duration bonds.
60% long duration equities.
What do we sell? What do we buy?
There is some incredibly exciting opportunities in tech right now. Stuff that could significantly run into the future. But the market feels properly priced here.
None of this is financial advice but this is how I’m thinking through the first week of 2024.
Twitter links from the pod:
* Ram on twitter talks about global investing trends
* Bitcoin ETF Taxation
* Andy Constan on the future of inflation
* Kate and Ashley Quiet Luxury
* CES 2024
Everyone should check these links out:
Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2024 wraps up an AI-laden week: CES 2024 wrapped up this week with almost every company having an AI featured announcement. Or so it seemed. Useful rounds ups of the plethora of announcements across Electronics, PCs/Laptops/TVs/Automobiles, and gadgets of every type can be read hare, here and here amongst many others, Of particular note of course was the focus by both chip and PC vendors to highlight the AI capabilities of their next generations of products this year. And Intel, AMD and other chip vendors did their best to make their case that they were also in the AI chip race vs Nvidia, which at the moment is running away with the AI infrastructure market. Now it’s on the software and services companies to ramp up their offerings to leverage the local hardware with innovative AI apps and services.
CES also saw a range of new AI Devices and Services: Ahead of Apple’s much-anticipated launch of its Vision Pro glasses which go up for pre-order on January 19, CES also saw new AI devices and services on offer. Sony previewed 'Spatial Content’ Headset against Apple’s upcoming focus on ‘Spatial Computing’. A new company launched its Rabbit R1 $200 AI device product below (no subscription), with an ambition similar to Humane AI’s pin product rolled out a few weeks ago. Samsung had fun with its Ballie AI robot. We’re going to see a cambrian explosion of AI gadgets and services this year, including AI services like ChatGPT stuffed into our VWs and BMWs. My deeper take on this trend here.
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* How to become a millionaire in your 20’s
* Scott Galloway talks about his successes and failures investing
* Parenting Podcast of the week
Best Links of The Week🔮
* Permanent Equity Annual Letter. Joel’s favorite private equity gourp. - Link
* "US crude oil and natural gas output is set to notch fresh records in 2024 and 2025, the government has forecast, despite mounting fears that the shale revolution that fuelled the nation’s energy boom has run its course. Average US oil production will amount to 13.2mn barrels per day this year, rising to 13.4mn b/d next year, according to an energy outlook released on Tuesday by the Energy Information Administration. The figures top the 12.9mn b/d estimated in 2023 — itself a record, surpassing levels reached before the pandemic." Source: FT
* Google is going forward with sweeping changes to how companies track users online—moves that have been years in the making. Advertisers still aren’t ready. The changes, among the biggest in the history of the $600 billion-a-year online-ad industry, center on the use of cookies, technology that logs the activity of internet users across websites so that advertisers can target them with relevant ads. Starting Thursday, Google will start a limited test that will restrict cookies for 1% of the people who use its Chrome browser, which is by far the world’s most popular. By year’s end, Google plans to eliminate cookies for all Chrome users." Source: WSJ
* "German inflation accelerated to its fastest rate for three months in December, casting doubt over investors’ hopes that the European Central Bank will start cutting interest rates as early as March. Inflation in Europe’s largest economy rose at an annual rate of 3.8 per cent in December, up from 2.3 per cent a month earlier... The reduction of government subsidies on gas, electricity and food that began last year has triggered a re-acceleration of annual inflation in much of Europe." Source: FT
* "Eli Lilly started a new online service offering telehealth prescriptions and direct home delivery of its new anti-obesity drug Zepbound, an unusual move into the drug supply chain by a pharmaceutical company with one of the hottest-selling medicines." Source: WSJ
* "Peloton is partnering with TikTok to bring short-form fitness videos and other content to the social media channel. The partnership comes as Peloton looks to attract a wider array of customers and boost subscribers amid falling sales and profits. In May, Peloton rebranded as a fitness company “for all,” and is still working to get that message out to the public." Source: CNBC
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Reviewing 2023 predictions
* Whats in store for 2024
* 2024 predictions
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
Welcome back and Happy New year everyone.
The market has gotten off to a very slow start. Erasing all the gains in the final five trading days of last year.
On LinkedIn I posted a little blurb on the January Trifecta that i think is important to talk about as we trade through January.
Santa failed to show up for his Rally.In investing, there are many adages or proverbs that people track.One that has become popular is the New Years Trifecta.The first leg is the Santa Clause Rally. Which combines the final 5 trading days of last year and the first 2 trading days of the new year. The second is “the first 5 days” of January.The third is “as January goes, so goes the rest of the year”.The first adage or indicator is usually measuring the S&P500, but it’s also fair game to expand it more broadly as I think it helps to see the whole market. (See attached chart from All Star Charts)So what does it all mean exactly?Last year, we had one of the best January’s in history. Which lead to one of the best performing years for a 60:40 portfolio in a long time.We’ve gotten off to a poor start here in North America. But the rest of the world, specifically Emerging Markets, Financials and Healthcare have bucked that trend.There are many strategists on the street bullish these three areas of the market.They are showing relative strength.I think that’s important to pay attention to.It’s a new year, with new trends.
2024 Predictions:
* Cancel culture gets canceled
* Ozempic (GLP-1) is bigger than AI
* S&P 500 sees a +15% gain
* Jerome Powell leaves the fed in 2024 after soft landing confirmed and before Trump
* TikTok finally gets banned in the US and Canada (After election)
* Hypest IPO of 2024 is going to be Kim K’s Spanx and Stripe
* Longevity products go mainstream
* Crypto begins a new bull market
* Software moats erode with AI
* Valuation dispersion widens
* A new generational social media product is born
* India has a blockbuster startup IPO
* US IPO market reopens; M&A stalls with regulation
* Small cap tech IPOs will make a comeback
* AI deflates healthcare
* Digital detoxes go mainstream
* The value of culture will skyrocket in the AI age
* Fed will hike more than it will cut in 2024
* Bitcoin spot ETF will not happen in 2024
* Gold will trade below $1700
* No banks will fail
* China Equities will outperform all G7 equities
* YoY US CPI measure for all of 2024 will exceed 2023 year end level
* Mag 7 will again outperform SPX 493
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations
* The best interview of Scott I have ever watched. And I’ve seen darn near all of them.
* Zeihan on Canada’s position economically
Best Links of The Week🔮
* The Case Against Travel by Agnes Callard - An argument we might all be more open to after experiencing an airport around the holidays … Especially in an age of online booking and Instagram, travel shouldn’t be considered an achievement or a hobby.
* An Extraordinary Introduction to the Birth of Israel and the Arab-Israeli Conflict (with Haviv Rettig Gur) by EconTalk Podcast - A much broader perspective on the foundation of Israel that goes well beyond 1948 and puts Zionism in a wider historical context in Europe.
* Bonus (Listen): Sam Lessin of SlowVC: The End of Factory-Farmed Unicorns on World of DaaS pod Everyone is afraid to make predictions, except Sam Lessin. Sam gives an in depth breakdown of the last five years of VC, and where it’s heading in the next five.
* Why The Age of American Progress Ended by Derek Thompson “Invention alone can’t change the world; what matters is what happens next.” The US has more Nobel prizes for science than most of Europe combined, but if there were a Nobel prize for deployment and adoption of new technologies, we certainly wouldn’t be the leading recipients.
* The Secret Life of the 500+ Cables That Run the Internet by Stephen Shankland Some of the facts about the several hundred cables that connect the global internet are unbelievable: They’re only about the width of a garden hose, and they carry 99% of intercontinental internet traffic.
* What do you actually want? by Raffi Grinberg
For the season of goal setting, a practical, replicable exercise to understand more about what you actually want and why, with grounding in modern psychology.
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Introduction - Dan Belostotsky
* Where does Honestdoor fit in the Real Estate sector?
* Process of using Honestdoor
* Realtor.ca Court Case
* Real Estate startups
* Hypothetical Buying Agent : Selling Agent scenrio
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
2023 was a year of relief.
Kurt Vonnegut once correctly pondered: "The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is." While 2022 was humbling and bewildering at times for many of my portfolio companies, in hindsight it was one of those moments we needed to just stay calm. Given hopefully multiple decades of life ahead of us, it matters a lot less how 2022 or 2023 went; what matters much more is what lies ahead.
Morgan Housel's recent book "Same as Ever" had this sentence that really left a mark on my mind: "To know where we are going, we should know where we have been. And when you know where we have been, you realize we have no idea of where we are going."
After the pandemic and the massive stimulus in 2020, Russia-Ukraine war, supply chain crisis, and soaring inflation of 2021-22, and then the apparent taming of inflation in 2023, it seems like a good bet that we will keep getting surprised in 2024 (and beyond). Some of them will be positive surprises, and some negatives.
What is going to be most interesting to me and the Canadian Market will be how we tackle our real estate “problem”.
This weeks podcast features Dan Belostotsky, founder and CEO of Honestdoor.
Dan was the perfect guest to round out the year that featured a volatile market in stocks and real estate.
If you’re interested in learning more about Dan and his business, check our their platform here.
links from the pod:
* "Pending home sales in October dropped to the lowest level since the National Association of Realtors began tracking them in 2001. - CNBC
* Zillow Acquires Trulia - Strathechery
* Sharptech on the future of Real Estate
* How to deal with writers block
Best Links of The Week🔮
* Blockbuster year in public markets buoyed by AI: The stock market obviously had a great year given the macro economic developments, and anticipation of a tempering Fed on rates in 2024. - WSJ
* Year-end AI Summaries and Predictions: It’s the time of year of course for year-end summaries and predictions for 2024. - The information and here for predictions
* How the $250 billion plus ‘Creator’ economy that is going to be impacted by AI in 2024. - The information
* There's also Tech products for 2024. - WSJ
* "The New York Times on Wednesday filed a lawsuit against Microsoft and OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, accusing them of copyright infringement and abusing the newspaper’s intellectual property. In a court filing, the publisher said it seeks to hold Microsoft and OpenAI to account for “billions of dollars in statutory and actual damages” it believes it is owed for “unlawful copying and use of The Times’s uniquely valuable works.” The Times accused Microsoft and OpenAI of creating a business model based on “mass copyright infringement,” stating their AI systems “exploit and, in many cases, retain large portions of the copyrightable expression contained in those works"." Source: CNBC
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Netflix is Cable and Cable is Netlfix
* Amazon will bundle sports and news
* Market update
* 2024 outlook
* Plans for the holidays
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
Merry Chrysler Everyone!
After one of the biggest rallys in stock market history, we think its fair for the podcast to take a break.
In doing that, we want to provide everyone with all the reading and listening we’ll be tackling as we head into the Christmas break.
Twitter links from the pod:
* Lego thread
* Trevor Tombe talking about Canadian Inflation
* Trevor Scott and the opportunity in Fairfax
Best 2024 Outlooks from across the finance industry:
* BlackRock: 2024 Global Outlook
* PIMCO: Prime Time for Bonds
* Robeco: 2024 Outlook: Goldilocks: Exit stage right
* Charles Schwab: U.S. Outlook: One Thing Leads to Another
* Charles Schwab: 2024 Global Outlook: The Big Picture
Summary Reports
* Vanguard: Economic and Market Outlook for 2024
* Morgan Stanley: 2024 Global Macroeconomic Outlook: Central Banks Look for ‘Just Right’ on Rates
* Morgan Stanley: 2024 Investment Outlook: Threading the Needle
* Goldman Sachs: Macro Outlook 2024: The Hard Part is Over
* Goldman Sachs: 2024 U.S. Equity Outlook: “All You Had To Do Was Stay”
* Bank of America: 2024 Outlook
Real Estate
* Nareit: 2024 REIT Market Outlook
* Realtor.com: 2024 Housing Market Forecast and Predictions
Miscellaneous
* Cambridge Associates: 2024 Outlook: Private Equity & Venture Capital
* Deloitte: 2024 Investment Management Outlook
* McKinsey: The State of Fashion 2024
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* Bezos Interview With Lex Friedman and 5 takeaways from the Bezos interview:
1) Deep self-awareness & stacking the deck in your favor is a good formula for career success.
2) Many people self-identify as entrepreneurs because it's cool vs. what's actually true.
3) Great entrepreneurs are able to telescope flawlessly. They drift from cloud to mud discussions in seconds.
4) Irrational optimism lets you start a business. Emotionless pragmatism lets you succeed in business.
5) Powerpoints are terrible meeting tools. They are meant for persuasion & selling vs. problem-solving & truth-finding.
* My Favorite Two Boomer Influencers Talk Health and Longevity:
* What Happened To AI in 2023!?:
Best Links of The Week🔮
* Trading for a Living (Jared Dillian)
Ex-trader turned fantastic writer, Jared Dillian publishes one of my favorite blogs on the internet. Not only does he educate and entertain with everything he writes, but he does so in a style all his own. I particularly enjoyed this piece on trading because it’s filled with insights that are completely foreign to me. Though I have no interest in day trading, Jared is able to make this topic come alive in a way that is both beautiful and intriguing. There is this level of depth of that makes you want to keep reading. Don’t just take my word for it though, see for yourself.
* The Levers That Money Can’t Pull (Lawrence Yeo)
Lawrence Yeo doesn’t usually write about money, but, when he does, I listen. In this post he does a deep dive on the things that money can and can’t do for your life. While we all know that money by itself can’t buy you love or purpose, Lawrence has a unique way of approaching this problem that makes his writing so compelling and memorable. If you ever need a reminder on the importance (and non-importance) of money, this post is for you.
* The Problem with Being House Rich (Ben Carlson)
In this piece, he provides a friendly reminder of the fact that most Americans have most of their wealth in their home. He goes on to explain how this can be problematic for some who look rich on paper, but can’t access their wealth when it is needed most. For those of you that want to better understand the tradeoffs associated with being “house rich,” look no further.
* The Myth of the Broke Millennial (Jean M. Twenge)
I love it when a writer busts a commonly held (yet mistaken). Jean takes her analysis to the next level by demonstrating how Millennials (my generation) aren’t as far behind as previously believed. Her analysis examines changes in income, wealth, and why Millennials still might feel poor despite these improvements (hint: it’s the media). Though the myth of the broke Millennial persists today, I’m hoping this article will change your mind.
* Seven Deadly Stocks (Michael Batnick)
Michael hasn’t written much this year, but this piece shows that he’s still got it. Of all the beliefs that have been endlessly repeated in 2023, the most common one I’ve heard is that the market is being carried by a small number of large stocks (i.e. “The Magnificent 7”). Michael does a great job of providing context to illustrate that the Magnificent 7 weren’t always so magnificent. If you need a short, but sweet post to understand why the rise of the Magnificent 7 isn’t necessarily a problem, then this post is for you.
* Charlie Munger’s Life Was About Way More Than Money (Jason Zweig)
Following the death of Charlie Munger a few weeks ago, the internet was flooded with articles and Twitter threads of Munger’s wit and wisdom. As I read through these I saw the same stories, quotes, and ideas repeated again and again. But then, I read Jason Zweig’s piece about Munger and was truly in awe. Even when you think everything has been said on a topic, Jason finds a way to write something truly original. As I’ve said before, “When information is cheap, wisdom is expensive.” Thankfully, Jason continues to share his wisdom with us year after year.
* "Next year is poised to be a pivotal year, where SpaceX’s performance will act as the barometer for the entire space investment landscape.
The spotlight will shine particularly bright on the much-anticipated Starship launch, with its success being a potential catalyst to galvanize and elevate investor optimism to new heights. Adding another layer of intrigue to the financial landscape is the prospect of Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet venture, going public. The mere contemplation of an initial public offering for Starlink has the potential to be nothing short of transformational for the space sector." Source: TechCrunch
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Ohtani Contract
* Liv Golf
* Jerome Powell FOMC meeting recap
* Market Update
* Canadian Mortgages
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
Some thoughts…
Markets are inherently pro cyclical. Liquidity attracts liquidity. Momentum attracts momentum. Sentiment is contagious. The best summary of this is the Minsky Hypothesis.
Minsky had three phases:
Cash Flow Investing Phase: Investors initially focus on investments based on cash flows and fundamental values, driving steady market growth.
The focus is yield and downside minimization
Speculative Phase: Gradually, as markets rise and confidence grows, investors shift towards speculative investments, often relying on debt, disregarding underlying values.
The focus is capital gains and trends
Ponzi Finance Phase: The market reaches a point where investments are made with the expectation that prices will continue to rise, ignoring fundamentals.
The focus is ‘past returns = future returns’ so buy more
This unsustainable growth leads to a market correction when the reality of overvaluation and excessive debt becomes apparent.
Minsky’s framework explains both the 2008 crisis and 2022 crypto leverage crash. It’s a great framework…
Twitter links from the pod:
* This guy created the world's 1st ever, fully transparent fashion brand.
* My relatives immigrated from Bangladesh to Reno, Nevada just 6 months ago.
* Victory over Google! - RIOT vs. Google.
* The Los Angeles Dodgers are proposing to pay the most talented baseball player in history like he's a mediocre middle reliever.
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* Optimistic Science Fiction - Foundry
* TCAF with my favorite guest, Bob Elliott:
* Cultivating Happiness with Peter Attia:
Best Links of The Week🔮
* "Big tech stocks reclaimed their position as the market’s leaders this year. Just how far ahead of the pack have they run? Collectively, the stocks known as the Magnificent Seven—Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta—have jumped 75% in 2023, leaving the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 in their dust. (Those have risen a more modest 12%, while the index as a whole is up 23%.)" Source: WSJ
* "For LVMH and other luxury-goods stocks, 2024 is shaping up to be 2023 in reverse. Unlike this year, when China’s reopening fueled a splurge on pricey handbags and jewelry before running out of steam, investors expect 2024 to start on a weak footing before a revival in the second half. As analysts at BNP Paribas put it, next year will likely be “a game of two halves” for luxury stocks such as Richemont and Gucci-owner Kering." Source: Bloomberg
* "The mounting deluge of mostly irrelevant information is overwhelming many investors, making financial markets more chaotic and less efficient at pricing in important data, says hedge fund magnate Clifford Asness. The founder of US-based AQR Capital Management, still one of the world’s biggest computer-driven investment firms despite a sharp drop in assets in recent years, once studied under the University of Chicago’s Eugene Fama, who won a Nobel Prize for his efficient markets hypothesis. But three decades of exposure to how markets work has eroded Asness’s belief in the theory." Source: FT
* "Next year is shaping up to be another pivotal year for weight loss drugs, which skyrocketed in popularity despite hefty price tags, mixed insurance coverage and some unpleasant side effects. Investors will be watching to see how Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk navigate the ongoing supply issues plaguing their treatments. Those two companies and other drugmakers hoping to join the weight loss drug market are also expected to release crucial clinical trial data." Source: CNBC
* "Confronting sizable debt burdens and the fact that most streaming services still don’t make money, studios like Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery have begun to soften their do-not-sell-to-[NFLX] stances. The companies are still holding back their most popular content — movies from the Disney-owned Star Wars and Marvel universes and blockbuster original series like HBO’s “Game of Thrones” aren’t going anywhere — but dozens of other films like “Dune” and “Prometheus” and series like “Young Sheldon” are being sent to the streaming behemoth in return for much-needed cash. And [NFLX] is once again benefiting." Source: NYT
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Christmas Parties Belong In December
* Ai’s position in media and the internet ad market
* Market update
* Sports business update
* LIV golf drama
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
Welcome back.
First I want to urge all readers to check out Ben Thompsons latest piece - Regretful Accelerationism.
As this year comes to a close a year after OpenAI’s ‘ChatGPT moment’ that kicked off the gold rush in the AI Tech Wave last November, it’s clear that for now the big tech ‘Magnificent Seven’, most with market caps over a trillion dollars each, rule the public market roost. Some might say their AI tales are wagging the relative smaller cap ‘dogs’ in the market (pun intended). As the WSJ notes today in “What the Stock Market Taught Us This Year: Don’t Fall for These Investing Traps”:
“A handful of tech and tech-related stocks, weight-loss drugs and artificial-intelligence providers offer the sum total of stock-market outperformance this year. Beyond these headliners, there is less and less attention on individual names.”
“Those tech behemoths, dubbed the “Magnificent Seven,” account for more than 30% of the index and 87% of its return through October. Let us say that again: Just seven stocks represent one-third of the S&P 500 index. Some now consider Google parent Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Facebook parent Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla to be defensive businesses that can grow through any economic cycle.”
We’ve seen this before, and the lesson is always the same: Winner-takes-all can dominate over shorter time frames but is rarely a winning bet in the long run.”
This concentrated performance of the AI boosted performance of big tech is something we’ve talked about on this podcast at length.
As this other WSJ piece also today “How Long Can the ‘Magnificent Seven’ Stocks Hold the Line?” notes:
“As in the eponymous 1960s Western, the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks keep on winning. This also means investors are betting the farm on just a handful of bullets hitting their targets.
The S&P 500 is in a bull market, fueled by soft inflation data in the U.S. and Europe and the widespread belief that interest rates will start coming down early next year. Yet the stock market has become so top-heavy that speaking of a “bull market” carries less meaning than before.”
Without the key seven stocks listed above and talked about at length on this site, the WSJ adds:
“The high-growth, technology-related companies that analysts have dubbed the Magnificent Seven—the S&P 500 would be up only 8% this year, rather than 19%. Indeed, these stocks inched higher Tuesday even as the broader equity market faltered.”
The issue becomes complicated in a public market increasingly dominated by index investing, which for individual investors in abstract is an eminently wise way to invest in stocks for the long term. But the ‘Magnificent 7’ concentration means that:
“That poses a conundrum for investors, who increasingly use index funds. Right now, buying an S&P 500 tracker means investing 30% of the money in just seven stocks. Historically, the top seven have accounted for 21% of the benchmark, taking the end-of-year average of the past decade.”
And this means a stratification in valuations in this concentration:
“This not only runs counter to the principle of diversification, but also means the most important stocks investors own are pricey. The seven stocks have posted strong profits lately, but they are still trading at an average of 32 times forward earnings, compared with 19 times for the broader index.”
Of course, all assets are ultimately driven by the realities and perceptions of where interest rates are and might go, in the much larger bond markets. Investors in both private and public markets are of course adjusting from over a decade of aberration ally low interest rates (aka ZIRP, RIP for now). As the earlier WSJ piece noted:
“The extremely low interest rates that have persisted for much of the past two decades. Over the past 50 years, U.S. interest rates have averaged 5.98%. Today’s 5.5% rate seems high compared with the 0.25% paid during the recession of 2008, but no comparison to 1980 when rates topped out at 20%.”
“Similarly, at the start of the new millennium, a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 8.08%—basically in line with 2023 levels, but significantly higher than the bargain 2.96% rate that could be had just two years ago.”
“Higher interest rates now feel like a shock to our systems because we got anchored to some extreme lows. When considered in the full context of a longer history, though, they are in line.”
“Now people are anchored to the S&P 500 beating everything else. But just as we have seen with interest rates in 2023, the trend will revert to the mean, even if it takes a while.”
Of course on the tech and AI front, we’ve long made a point of making sure investors separate financial cycles from secular technology cycles. They’re almost never in sync. This post is to highlight the broader realities of the financial cycles for now. Again, as the WSJ notes in their piece on the ‘Magnificent Seven’:
“With so much market value concentrated in those seven stocks, the benefits of diversifying into small-caps can be severely reduced when a few of their company-specific investments pay off, the research also suggests. The artificial-intelligence boom sparked by OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which has already helped chip-maker Nvidia triple its revenues relative to a year earlier, could be just such a payoff.”
“But reliance on big idiosyncratic effects cuts both ways. Who will benefit most from AI is still an open question. And other megatrends are underpinning the value of the Magnificent Seven, such as Meta’s metaverse or Tesla’s self-driving cars, that are showing less promise.”
Tune into the podcast next week to hear more on this.
Twitter links from the pod:
* BIOTECH BOOM
* Japanese stocks
* Andy Constan talks about market makeup - supply vs. demand
* Trevor Tombe talks about carbon tax policy
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* Prof G talks about the GS Apple break up:
* Serhant Talks about the biggest trends in real estate:
* Cybertruck is here and its hideous:
Best Links of The Week🔮
* Working - with Barrack Obama on Netflix
* After Charlie Munger passed away at age 99, a reader kindly shared his video Psychology of Human Misjudgement. If you listen to any podcast episode this week, make it this one. Munger goes through the most common causes of human misjudgment, including distorted incentives, the urge to reciprocate, social proof, authority bias, commitment bias, etc.
* I also loved the interview with British historian Edward Chancellor. He’s bearish on the renewables and the private equity industries since they’re hurting from recent interest rate hikes. Chancellor thinks the best value can be found outside the United States, especially in the UK and Japan.
* Finally, have a look at the ASEAN stocks discussed by Ross & Van Compernolle in their recent update. These include Delfi, Velesto, PV Drilling, Marco Polo Marine, CSE Global, Arwana Citramulia, etc. Ross & Van Compernolle believe that the offshore oil & gas services market remains tight as industry capex lags behind demand. They also believe that Indonesia’s economy will benefit from fiscal spending in the run-up to the 2024 election. Most of their stocks trade at single-digit P/E multiples.
* "Companies on both sides of the Atlantic are rushing to issue debt, taking advantage of the cheapest borrowing costs available in months following the sharp global bond market rally... The acceleration in issuance follows a rapid shift in investor sentiment over the past few weeks, in which markets have begun to price in US and European interest rate cuts in the first half of next year... US bonds recorded their best monthly performance in nearly four decades in November." Source: FT
* "Amazon is betting members of its Prime program will want to pay a separate monthly fee for unlimited grocery delivery on some orders. Trial service will give Prime members in three cities the option to pay $9.99 a month for access to free Fresh and Whole Foods deliveries on orders more than $35. The company has tweaked its fee-free grocery delivery threshold in recent years amid mounting costs." Source: CNBC
"A leading Gulf artificial intelligence company has said it is cutting ties with Chinese hardware suppliers in favour of US counterparts, in a sign of the growing geopolitical struggle over the new technology. G42 of the United Arab Emirates is making the move to ensure its access to US-made chips by allaying concerns among its American partners, which include Microsoft and OpenAI, chief executive Peng Xiao said." Source: FT
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Market update
* Stock Market posts its best November in history
* How to think about portfolio allocation after a historical rally in stocks and bonds
* Mark Cuban for president or is he selling the top in sports franchise valuations
* New CRA tax reporting rules
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
Welcome back.
This week marked the completion of the very best November in history for a 60:40 portfolio of stocks and bonds. What an incredible shift in sentiment we just witnessed.
I believe we are in Phase 2 for Risk Assets.
Phase 1 was the Non-Consensus Rally.
Most capital was offside, and wrong-way positioned and value was abundant across all sectors.
In phase 2 - sentiment will thaw (a bit too quickly perhaps).
It’s clear that in this phase, people are leaning in to a new narrative.
There is still skepticism, but another layer of capital has added a bid to markets in the last month. (November)
Valuations are higher but not excessive.
Phase 2 is where markets climb a wall of worry.
Phase 3 is when Consensus is all-in and public markets valuations are excessive.
Usually you have a Goldilocks backdrop and a new economy or a “AI” narrative. That takes a few years to get going…
We have a ways to go. That's my sense today.
I'm always evaluating incoming data to test and falsify these hypothesis…
Chart from all star charts:
Twitter links from the pod:
* I tried Ozempic and… - Sam Par
* People around the world all want the same thing… and its no surprise to capitalists
* Mark Cuban quits shark tank after a decade long run
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* Tesla unveils the Cybertruck! In 3 packages.
* Best podcast of the week comes from Peter Zeihan
* Bob Elliot Talks Market Positioning, Gold and Bitcoin:
Best Links of The Week🔮:
* Economist predicts rate cuts in 2024. Source: Financial Post
* "Amazon on Tuesday announced a new chatbot called Q for people to use at work. The product, announced at Amazon Web Services’ Reinvent conference in Las Vegas, represents Amazon’s latest effort to challenge Microsoft and Google in productivity software. It comes one year after Microsoft-backed startup OpenAI launched its ChatGPT chatbot, which has popularized generative artificial intelligence for crafting human-like text in response to a few lines of human input." Source: CNBC
* "Apple is pulling the plug on its credit-card partnership with Goldman Sachs, the final nail in the coffin of the Wall Street bank’s bid to expand into consumer lending. The tech giant recently sent a proposal to Goldman to exit from the contract in the next roughly 12-to-15 months... The exit would cover their entire consumer partnership, including the credit card the companies launched in 2019 and the savings account rolled out this year... The move would mark a swift about-face for a program that just over a year ago was extended through 2029 and was intended to serve as a pillar of Goldman’s main-street ambitions." Source: WSJ
* "Billionaire investor Bill Ackman is betting the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates sooner than markets are predicting. The Pershing Square Capital Management founder said such a move could happen as soon as the first quarter." Source: Bloomberg
* "Home prices were 3.9% higher in September compared with the same month a year earlier,**according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. The growth coincided with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate’s climb toward 8%. Rents are easing, however, while home prices rise." Source: CNBC
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Open Ai Saga completes
* The supply chain of the new AI industry
* How to approach your career path and ladder climbing
* New short term rental policy changes from CRA
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
Welcome back for the Thanksgiving Reformed Pod.
After a CRAZY week of tech news, it seems absolutely everything fell apart and was rebuilt in 6 days.
What an incredible sequence of events.
Over that week, the market continued its November rally as the nasdaq and S&P touched on new all time highs.
This has been quite the reprieve for investors and advisors after a terrible finish to October.
Some Data from Datatrek:
Mutual fund/ETF investors have found their courage again. Last week we noted that this investor cohort had finally started to add to their equity and fixed income holdings after 3 months of net redemptions. We predicted this was a turning point in their market views, and this week confirms that point of view. The data here is courtesy of the Investment Company Institute (link below):
* For the week ending November 15th, inflows totaled $13.1 billion as compared to $14.4 billion in new investments the week before. The 4 weeks prior to this 2-week period saw outflows of $55.0 billion, so the recent turn in fund investors’ animal spirits is certainly underway.
* Equity mutual funds had net inflows of $10.7 billion last week and $7.2 bn the week before. This compares to the prior 4-week outflows of $19.7 billion so, again, we’re seeing an improvement in investor psychology. Worth noting: fund investors are only adding to US equity positions. Non-US funds continue to see outflows.
* Fixed income funds had inflows last week of $4.7 billion, adding to the prior week’s $7.8 billion of fresh money. The last 2 weeks has now replaced the $10.4 billion redeemed over the prior 4 weeks.
* Fund investors are even adding to their commodity fund positions, with inflows last week of $0.4 billion and $0.6 bn the week before. As with bond funds, this puts back the $0.5 billion they redeemed in the prior 4 weeks.
Takeaway: As we noted a few weeks ago, investor confidence was running at unsustainably low levels in October and any sort of asset price stabilization could prove to be the catalyst for better sentiment. Stocks and bonds made their lows in the back half of last month. The turn in money flows started 1-2 weeks later. As long as stock and bond prices continue to drift higher through year-end, our base case assumption, fund inflows should continue.
Twitter links from the pod:
* Canadian Tax Guy talks about the new CRA changes
* Chamath on future of AI
* Gavin Baker talks about the OpenAI Saga
* Car Dealership Guy on car market sentiment
* Ram Talks OpenAI strategy
* Bucco on NYT and content strategy
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* Multibagger Presentation from the MicroCap Club:
* Things that never change - The Compound and Friends:
* Invest like the best with another incredible episode:
Best Links of The Week🔮
* New Commerce view from Shopify - Source: Shopify website
* "Alibaba founder Jack Ma held off on plans to trim his stake in the Chinese e-commerce giant after the share price fell. Ma has not sold a single share, Alibaba’s Chief People Officer Jane Jiang told employees in an internal memo... Alibaba’s stock is currently trading below the company’s actual value, Jiang said, citing this as a reason Ma has not cut his stake. Alibaba’s regulatory filings last week revealed Ma is looking to sell 10 million shares at a value of around $870 million." Source: CNBC
* "The Louvre Museum in Paris has added a “national treasure” to its collection four years after it was discovered during a house clearance. “Christ Mocked” by the Florentine painter Cimabue was found in an elderly woman’s house in the town of Compiegne in 2019. She had kept the rare artwork – which she thought was a Greek religious icon – in her kitchen... The painting, which dates from 1280, went on to fetch almost 24.2 million euros ($26.8 million) at auction in October 2019, more than four times the pre-sale estimate. But the French government then stepped in to block its export, assigning the painting “national treasure” status. The move kept the tiny, ultra-rare painting in the country for 30 months, during which time the government raised the funds to buy it for the nation." Source: CNN
* Must Read of the Day: A slew of retailers have issued tepid, cautious or downright disappointing fourth-quarter outlooks over the past few weeks, casting a pall over the crucial holiday season right as they gear up for the biggest shopping day of the year. The companies, which include everyone from luxury goods giant Tapestry to big boxer BJ’s Wholesale Club, cited a host of dynamics that led them to reduce their outlooks or issue forecasts that came in below expectations. Some, such as Best Buy and Nordstrom, cited the uncertain state of the consumer following months of persistent inflation, while others, such as Hanesbrands, said demand is simply drying up for its basic T-shirts, socks and underwear as wholesalers look to keep inventories in check." Source: CNBC
"Ousted OpenAI chief Sam Altman will return to run the company he co-founded, following days of speculation and turmoil at the leading generative artificial intelligence start-up. In a dramatic reversal, Altman, who was fired by OpenAI’s board of directors last week, will be reinstated under the supervision of a new board, the company said late on Tuesday in California. Greg Brockman, the co-founder and president who quit the company on Friday after Altman was fired, will return alongside him." Source: FT
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* F1 and Liberty Media
* Stock Market Update
* Dealerships Aren’t Taking EV Orders
* Chinese E-commerce stack (TikTok, Shein and TEMU)
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
Welcome back.
The market ripped into the close, closing off a >10% rally in stocks in November.
It’s incredible how quickly a narrative can change. Price is powerful.
Todays important reading is all from the Open Ai Developer day:
OpenAI's Dev Day had a vibrancy and buzz reminiscent of the excitement typically seen at Apple's WWDC keynotes. In closing, two overarching themes stand out about OpenAI’s direction, highlighting the company's strategic approach and future ambitions.
* Vertical Integration Strategy: OpenAI's efforts in broadening the range of its model modalities, coupled with reductions in pricing and latency, reflect a strategic move towards vertical integration and getting more workloads into production. This includes extending into areas like storage, memory, and retrieval and also for some customers fine-tuning GPT-4 and custom models. This indicate a strong focus on capturing a larger share of value in delivering models to enterprise clients. The extent of this vertical integration and its impact on surrounding tooling will be important to watch.
* Executing on End-user Ambitions in Parallel: Alongside its B2B/developer focused initiatives, OpenAI is also making significant strides in going direct to end consumers. Key developments include the continued enhancement of ChatGPT, particularly the pro plan and notably, the launch of a platform for users to create and list GPTs via chat/UI in the GPT Store. This raises intriguing questions: Could the GPT Store emerge as the next big app marketplace? And do consumers prefer centralized access to GPT functionalities via ChatGPT, or do they seek these capabilities integrated into their various existing apps?
Announcements from the video:
I. GPT-4 Turbo boasts a number of improvements vs GPT-4:
* 128K context length which is a significant jump from 32K
* Better cost (~3x cheaper) and latency (2x faster)
* Improved instruction following and function calling
Implications:
* More workloads: OpenAI announced that 92% for Fortune 500’s are already using OpenAI. Improved cost and latency should help move more of these into production. In addition, the longer context length closes a gap with Anthropic’s models, and should help OpenAI maintain/gain share vs them.
* Long context windows: Longer context length closes a gap with Anthropic’s models, and should help OpenAI maintain/gain share vs them. They will also help replace techniques such as RAG for some use cases, though as the analysis below shows long context windows are not always a substitute for RAG even in smallish context lengths since accuracy tends to degrade as prompts get longer.
II. Multimodality in GPT-4
Multimodal was another big theme, particularly on the API side for developers. OpenAI announced that the following would be available via APIs in GPT-4 and independently:
* Dall-E 3 for image generation
* A new version of Whisper, v3, for speech-to-text
* A text-to-speech API for the first time, which is competitively priced
* A vision API for image understanding which was already starting to roll out
Implications:
* Impact on other models: It’ll be interesting to see how domain specific models in each of these areas fare vs OpenAI’s bundled approach.
* Multimodal applications: As AI's sensory capabilities continue to broaden and the state of the art continue to improve, it paves the way for novel applications of it which integrate the modalities.
III. The GPT Store
OpenAI also announced the ability for anyone to create their own “GPTs” which are basically custom mini GPTs with a specific prompt and knowledge base and tool access. These GPTs can then be listed on a GPT Store and shared with others and monetised.
A few things stand out:
* Ease of creation: GPTs can be created via a no-code UI and by simply having a conversation. They allow you to upload files and give it additional knowledge, and also help craft the right prompts based on what you’re trying to achieve, and can access external APIs.
* The Store itself: These can then be listed on a store and monetized over time, suggesting OpenAI’s ambitions of creating an App Store for AI and a central place where people go to to use AI in ChatGPT.
IV. Assistants API
OpenAI also announced an assistants AI, which provides additional functionality and simplifies some of the things developers were doing using other tools. In some ways, its the API version of the functionality made available for creating “GPTs” above.
It features:
* Memory of threads and conversations with the chatbot
* Native retrieval and handling of external files directly, allowing to easily add external knowledge to the model
* Enhanced Code interpreter and function calling for using other tools made available as part of the API
Twitter links from the pod:
* Gavin Bakers video of the latest Space X Launch
* Car Dealership Guy talks about the future of cars
* Best Business models - Thought exercise
*
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* AirBnb’s Brian Chesky talks about his new Playbook:
* War All The Time: Martyrmade Podcast:
* Future of office now that weWork is bankrupt:
Best Links of The Week🔮
* Canadian Debt Looms Large - Trevor Tombe
* Super Human has put out a how to guide on using ChatGPT - Superhuman
* China is the worlds Shopping Cart - Rest of world.org
* More Powerful GPU’s and AI Models. “One thing we can count on for some decades now, is technology getting better and cheaper over time. The AI Tech wave, even in its current early days, is following the template of the PC and Internet waves in that regard.” - Michael Parekh
* Nvidia is rolling out their next generation GPUs as well, led by founder/CEO Jensen Huang: “Nvidia on Monday unveiled the H200, a graphics processing unit designed for training and deploying the kinds of artificial intelligence models that are powering the generative AI boom.” - CNBC
* Crowdfunding Takes a Piece of Calgary - Globe and Mail
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Market update
* Open Ai changes the world of tech with their first developer day
* Sports Team Valuations and The Marginal Buyer
* Remember the fallen
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
In todays market update, i want to focus on Cost of Capital’s Evolution and Today’s Market Dynamics.
Understanding the Cost of Capital
1. Why It Matters:
* Cash Flow Management: Companies must wisely reinvest their earnings to surpass their cost of capital. Failure to do so can lead to poor market valuations.
* Market Perception: Investors value companies based on their ability to reinvest cash flows in lucrative projects.
2. Historical Perspective:
* 1980s-90s: The rise of junk bonds and the focus on financial leverage. This era saw a heightened consciousness of cost of capital, partly due to the disruptive influence of corporate raiders and academic literature advocating for more debt.
* Dot Com Era: Intellectual capital began to overshadow traditional capital allocation methods. Tech giants like Microsoft and Cisco led the charge, redefining market leadership.
3. The 2000-2020 Shift:
* A Debt-Friendly Environment: Low interest rates led to increased corporate debt, altering the landscape of corporate finance.
* Bear Markets and Equity Cost: The volatile market conditions made assessing cost of equity challenging.
* Tech's Rise: The tech rally in the 2010s highlighted the diminishing importance of financial capital compared to intellectual capital.
4. The Present Scenario:
* Rising Costs: Debt and equity capital costs have returned to early 2000s levels.
* Tech Dominance: Big Tech firms are now major players in the S&P 500, signifying a shift in market dynamics.
* The Debt Dilemma: High corporate debt levels amidst rising interest rates raise concerns about potential economic impacts.
Key Takeaways:
* Intellectual Capital Over Financial Metrics: The past 35 years have witnessed a transition from traditional capital metrics to a focus on intellectual capital, particularly in the tech sector. This shift has significantly influenced management strategies and market valuations.
* Generative AI's Potential Impact: The rise of generative AI could either widen the gap between tech valuations and other sectors or bridge it. Its full impact on market dynamics remains to be seen.
Conclusion: The journey of cost of capital from a mere financial metric to a broader concept encompassing intellectual capital highlights the evolving nature of business and investment strategies. As we navigate this landscape, understanding these shifts becomes crucial for making informed investment decisions.
Twitter Links from the Podcast:
* Trung Phan and the social network
* Ram talks about GOOG - Lumida Wealth
* The history of Insulin
* Tiktok is brainwashing our children
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* Bob Macro Update is terrific:
* How to think about Multibaggers - Ian Cassel
* My favorite podcast from this week
Best Links of The Week🔮
* Expectations Debt - Morgan Housel
* Corry Wang on Ozempic - A fascinating thread on the wide-ranging implications of a real anti-addiction drug. An under-appreciated number of consumer categories depend on a tiny cohort of super consumers (including gambling, alcohol, candy and soda). What happens when addiction is curable?
* Banking on Status by Julian Lehr - How luxury takes on the next frontier: Software. (or, why increasingly dull apps and services all look like lifestyle brands)
* The Six Moats of Data Businesses by Travis May - Travis outlines the features that aren’t moats, and what effective moats actually look like in data businesses.
* Jared Kushner: Israel, Palestine, Hamas, Gaza, Iran, and the Middle East on Lex Fridman Podcast - A real-time reaction to the Oct 7 terrible terrorism and a deep-dive into the history of the Abraham Accords.
* Bonus (Heartwarming): Stay in the Game by Drew Dickson - A beautiful, honest story about one of the hardest things in the world to be open about: a troubled child. Plus, an amazing twist ending. Bonus (Listen): Ben Horowitz, co-founder of a16z: Venture Capital on World of DaaS pod - A wide-ranging conversation with one of the greats of modern venture capital. Ben and I discuss culture, the war-time CEO playbook, and whether AI will eat the world like software.
* Must Read of the Day: "Amazon is turning to Prime members to bolster its healthcare business, an industry where the company has sought to expand for years. The tech giant on Wednesday revealed plans to offer its millions of Amazon Prime subscribers a low-cost annual membership to One Medical, the primary-care business Amazon purchased for $3.9 billion earlier this year. Amazon says Prime subscribers can now become One Medical members for $9 a month, or $99 a year. The typical cost to become a One Medical member is $199 annually... The move is the company’s latest to grow in the healthcare industry, including in primary care, pharmacy and even medical-drone deliveries after unsuccessful attempts in recent years to crack the market." Source: WSJ
* "Regulators on both sides of the Atlantic have cleared Eli Lilly’s injectable diabetes medication for use as a weight loss treatment, creating the first direct rival to Wegovy, Novo Nordisk’s obesity drug." Source: FT
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice in Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton and Cameron Pitchers specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton, Cameron Pitchers and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton and Cameron Pitchers disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Market update
* Rate commentary
* Carbon Tax
* Vibe Shift in Woke culture
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
October marks the end of a challenging three-month period for US and global equities, and we want to keep you informed about the current market conditions and potential opportunities. Here are some key highlights:
Market Volatility: Despite the S&P 500 showing resilience, the overall market has been under pressure. Small caps and international equities have experienced more significant losses, with the S&P 500’s YTD price return falling to 9.2 percent.
Geopolitical Risks: In addition to concerns over interest rates, the Israel-Gaza conflict has introduced a new risk factor. While oil prices have stabilized after a brief spike, uncertainty remains high.
Seeking Opportunities: With recent poor performance data, some investors are considering increasing equity exposure in November and December to benefit from the usual positive seasonality during these months. Call it the Santa Clause Rally.
Uncertainty in the Middle East: Predicting the impact of events in the Middle East on investments remains challenging. Historically, a more tradeable/investable low will show when/if the CBOE VIX Index reaches 28-36 and 10-year Treasury yields stabilize.
Sectors and Investment Strategies: Only a few sectors, including Utilities, Tech, Communications, and Consumer Staples, outperformed the S&P 500 in October. Value has outperformed Growth recently, but it’s crucial to understand the underlying dynamics. More below.
US Big Tech: Despite the recent market turbulence, US Big Tech companies have shown their strength in supporting the broader market. Their contribution to S&P 500 returns has been substantial.
Energy and Precious Metals: Oil prices have not sustained a high level due to Middle East tensions, which is surprising but potentially bullish for stocks. As Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 this year.
Interest Rates and Small Caps: Rising interest rates have hit the US small cap sector hard, affecting various industries, including Technology, Financials, and Health Care.
Global Tech Markets: Asian Big Tech companies have fared better than their European counterparts in the last three months, reflecting the ongoing market dynamics.
Economic Outlook: The Q3-2023 GDP growth showed a significant rebound, but alternative metrics and concerns about inflation suggest a more cautious approach.
In conclusion, the markets are navigating various challenges, including geopolitical uncertainties and interest rate fluctuations. We encourage you to stay informed and make well-informed investment decisions.
Twitter Links from the Podcast:
* Bari Weiss Wokeness
* How to make money as an individual creator on TikTok
* Credit event isn’t coming
* $APO talks about the concentration of returns in the market
* Trevor Tombe on Carbon Tax
* Peter Lynch and Seth Klaraman on todays market
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* Change Makers Conference:
* Palmer on Invest Like the Best:
* Trends with friends:
Best Links of The Week🔮
* The Canadian Carbon Tax - Trevor Tombe
* The Land of Rising Profits - GMO
* "The Treasury Department announced plans Wednesday to accelerate the size of its auctions as it looks to handle its heavy debt load and with financing costs rising. In a development getting close attention on Wall Street, the department detailed its refunding plans for future debt sales. The announcement comes with Treasury yields around their highest levels since 2007, a reflection of financial markets spooked over how much damage higher borrowing costs could exact. Most immediately, the Treasury will auction $112 billion in debt next week to refund $102.2 billion of notes set to mature Nov. 15, raising more than $9 billion in extra funds." - CNBC
* "For almost 30 years now, Nissan.com hasn't been the place to custom order an Altima.Owned by small businessman Uzi Nissan since 1994, the website was set up to represent his various small businesses before the Nissan Motor Corporation took interest. It infamously tried to rip it from him in court, only to lose after prolonged and costly legal battle stretching over a decade. But since Uzi's death in 2020, control of his website has allegedly been stolen by a mysterious thief, forcing the the Nissan family to take the matter to court once again." - Full story here in The Drive
* "DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach believes interest rates are about to trend lower as the economy deteriorates further and tips into a recession next year. “I do think rates are going to fall as we move into a recession in the first part of next year,” Gundlach said Wednesday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell"." - CNBC
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice in Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton and Cameron Pitchers specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton, Cameron Pitchers and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton and Cameron Pitchers disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* BOC Rate Hold
* Market update
* Earnings Season
* AirBnB headwinds
* Car Brands vs. Dealerships
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
The battle between bonds cash and equities is heating back up as investors tussle with rising rates, bonds sellings off and equities retreating.
Its increasingly difficult to justify equity risk with government bonds and GIC’s giving us such a sweet yield.
BUT!
AI spend is real and should serve as a secular tailwind for the ecosystem from chips to electrical fans for server farms. What price to pay is largely determined on whether the optionality of future growth potential is realized (and largely unknown).(Contributed by Benjamin Lavine, CIO at 3D/L Capital).
Source: Bloomberg
Its also very hard to see an imminent recession with spending (consumer, business) so strong and fiscal tailwinds well into 2024.(Contributed by Benjamin Lavine, CIO at 3D/L Capital).
Source: Bloomberg
Twitter links from the pod:
* Greg Isenberg on the future of VC and Attention Commerce
* Cardealership Guy talks about delinquency in the car industry
* Fazeclan going public… was a great idea for them. Bad for the investors.
* Ford with a double miss and poor EV guidance
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* Bob Elliot on Investing Through War Economies:
* Invest Like the Best - Aswath Damodaran
* Zeihan Goes on Real Vision:
* All In Talks About Diabetes Drugs and Terror Attacks In Israel :
Best Links of The Week🔮
* How to make money by losing $300,000 a year on slot machines. Link
* Morgan Housel writes about managing expectations. Link
* In an annual letter written over a decade ago, Seth Klarman shared lessons from 2008. Link
* Ten ways to create shareholder value by Al Rapaport. Link
* "Apple is planning an end-to-end overhaul of its AirPods lineup, refreshing a product category that’s emerged as one of the company’s biggest sellers. The changes will include a revamped version of Apple’s entry-level AirPods in 2024 and a new Pro model the following year... The company is updating the products’ earbud design, the look of the cases and audio quality. A new version of the AirPods Max headphones are coming in 2024 as well." Bloomberg
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice in Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton and Cameron Pitchers specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton, Cameron Pitchers and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton and Cameron Pitchers disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com -
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Market update
* Canadian inflation
* The Bond opportunity
* Warrens Big Miss with Disney Stock
* F1 meets the PGA?
* Recommendations and Links
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Market Update📈📉
Welcome back Listeners and Readers
Quick take on Canadian Inflation Data:
Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 3.8 per cent in September, reflecting a slowdown in price increases compared to the previous month, when it peaked at 4 per cent. While certain categories, such as airfare and durable goods, saw price decreases, grocery prices remained elevated. Alberta's inflation rate for September was 3.7 per cent, similar to the national average
Some Thoughts on Bonds from the internet:
"this is the biggest bond market rout in 150 years. Last year was worst year since 1871, with a total return of minus 15.7%, even worse than the annus horribilis of 2009. We are looking at bond investors’ two worst years in a century and a half.”
Quilt chart above and US bond yield chart below from BofA Global Investment strategy:
New highs:
Great charts and thread from Bob Elliott - my favorite from the link:
One of the largest bond routes in history.
To put this US selloff into a broader perspective highlights that the ~30% drop in US bonds is on par with the largest historical declines in the UK.
Twitter links from the pod:
* Trevor Tombe details the Canadian Inflation print from Oct 17th
* Fabricated Knowledge compares the AI buildout to the telecom buildout
* Trung Phan talks about Warrens Buffets BIGGEST miss - DIS stock
* Problems with the rails - a great recession indicator
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
I loved this Theo and Harris Conversation about the business of Youtube Watch Content:
* Scott Galloway gives great personal finance advice:
* Affordable housing clip: Boomer vs. Gen Z
Best Links of The Week🔮
* Marc Andreesen is out with The Techno-Optimist Manifesto - here
* "Interest rates are high, inflation remains elevated and pandemic savings are dwindling. Yet the U.S. consumer is on a spending binge. The display of consumer resilience persisted in the latest retail-sales report, which on Tuesday showed spending at stores, online and at restaurants rose a stronger-than-expected 0.7% in September from a month earlier... Consumers are still splashing out on a range of items and experiences, including on interest-rate-sensitive cars and more expensive restaurant meals." Source: WSJ
* "General Motors’ driverless-car unit Cruise is confronting a new safety investigation by federal regulators, after reports of its autonomous vehicles exhibiting risky behavior around pedestrians. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said in a Tuesday filing that it had opened a safety-defect probe into nearly 600 driverless cars operated by Cruise, adding that they might not be exercising appropriate caution in crosswalks and roadways... The probe represents the latest challenge for the San-Francisco-based Cruise, which is majority owned by GM, as the driverless-car firm tries to expand services in the Bay Area, Austin, Texas and Phoenix." Source: WSJ
* "Disney reorganized its company into three segments earlier this year, splitting ESPN and sports apart from its entertainment division. As part of the split, investors are now getting a look under the hood at ESPN. ESPN generated more than $12.5 billion in revenue for the nine months ending July 1." Source: CNBC
"OpenAI is in talks to sell existing employees’ shares at an $86 billion valuation... The artificial intelligence startup behind ChatGPT is negotiating the transaction, known as a tender offer, with potential investors." Source: Bloomberg
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice in Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton and Cameron Pitchers specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton, Cameron Pitchers and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton and Cameron Pitchers disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com - Show more
