Episodes
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Week 2 of every NFL season is unique in that it is filled with overreaction. With only 60 minutes of game time for each team, the foundation on which most predictions are built can be shaky. Mario Mergola breaks down the best way to benefit from these setups.
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People are often scared of Week 1 because they "don't know what to expect." They shouldn't be. Week 1 is often the *best* time to find value, as the perceptions are wildly innacurate. Mario Mergola goes into detail in the first podcast of the 2019-2020 NFL season.
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Missing episodes?
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You've probably heard it from everyone and anyone who talks about against-the-spread picks. That is, the commonly accepted belief that "a home team is worth three points." Mario Mergola sets to disprove this theory in this episode of the Sporfolio podcast.
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Mario Mergola has been writing about his football picks and the system he uses for years, yet it will eventually produce a losing week every now-and-again. How we handle these losses is arguably the biggest catalyst for longterm success.
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This episode is significantly shorter than usual, as Mario Mergola records his running thoughts on a few games from Week 9 of the 2018 NFL season that were previously undecided.
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We often fall into the trap of going back to the teams that were the most successful for us, but it's a mistake in the long run. Mario Mergola breaks down exactly why the popular teams are eventually destined to fail against the spread.
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Forget the teams, players, and schedule for a monent. This might be our most important episode for anyone who wants to learn how and why swapping picks due to injury often results in failure. Sporfolio's Mario Mergola walks through the numbers, odds, and perception that drive the spreads we aim to beat.
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Sporfolio's Mario Mergola frequently writes about ignoring the outcomes of division games, as they tend to provide false indicators for a team's true value. He goes through this process in Episode 2 by looking back to past examples and projecting ahead for the near future.
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Sporfolio's Mario Mergola looks back to Week 4 of the 2018 season to determine where value can be found for future NFL picks against-the-spread.
