Episodes
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Jason Hartman welcomes Curt Doolittle, founder of the Natural Law Institute, referred by previous guest Rudyard Lynch. Doolittle, an expert on Culture War economics and historical contexts, discusses the transformation of cultures over time. He explains the cyclical nature of societal changes, using historical examples like the Greek and Roman impact on the Middle East and the Industrial Revolution's social shifts. Doolittle highlights the challenges and resistances faced by societies in adapting to new responsibilities and the role of law, religion, and state in shaping civilizations. The conversation also explores gender roles, anti-social behaviors, and the impacts of colonization.
https://naturallawinstitute.com/
#CurtDoolittle #NaturalLawInstitute #CultureWar #HistoricalContext #PodcastInterview #CulturalChange #EconomicHistory #WesternCivilization #IndustrialRevolution #SocialEvolution #CulturalAnalysis #MiddleEastHistory #GreekRomanHistory #EconomicDevelopment #Colonization #PoliticalSystems #GenderRoles #SocialResponsibility #SocietalChange #PodcastGuest #HistoricalExamples #PhilosophicalDiscussion #EconomicTheory
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The Dollar Milkshake Theory, proposed by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital, predicts a surge in the US dollar's value compared to other currencies. This is due to the US's strong financial system, deep markets, and the dominance of the dollar in global transactions, like oil purchases. When a global debt crisis strikes, countries will scramble for dollars to pay off their debts, further boosting the dollar's value. This could lead to a "dollar milkshake effect" where money flows heavily into the US, inflating asset prices there. They also explore Modern Monetary Theory's role in this scenario, suggesting the US government's printing of money can continue to fuel dollar demand for some time.
#BrentJohnson #DollarMilkshakeTheory #GlobalEconomy #CurrencyStrength #FinancialMarkets #DebtCrisis #USDollar #Petrodollar #CapitalMarkets #MMT #Inflation #AssetPrices
Key Takeaways:
0:46 The Dollar Milkshake theory and the debt crisis
7:03 The straw and the US dollar's best deal
11:04 Modern Monetary Theory
12:19 Kicking the can down the road- for how long?
14:49 The storm before the storm
17:49 An "End of the world" scenario
19:25 Weak dollar vs. strong dollar, inflation vs. deflation
22:50 Echo chambers and the big social craziness comingFollow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN
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Jason welcomes Catherine Austin Fitts, of the Solari Report back to his show after nearly eight years. Catherine, served as Assistant Secretary of Housing under George H.W. Bush. They discuss the disappearance of trillions of dollars from federal budgets, starting in the mid-90s and escalating over the years. By 2001, $4 trillion was unaccounted for, rising to $21 trillion by 2015. Catherine reveals systemic financial mismanagement and secrecy within the U.S. government, emphasizing the impact on inflation and economic control. She highlights the need for property owners to navigate this unstable financial landscape wisely.
#CatherineAustinFitts #FinancialFuture #EconomicAnalysis #MissingTrillions #GovernmentSpending #FinancialDisclosure #RealEstateEducation #Inflation #EconomicPolicy #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialManagement #EconomicControl #DebtManagement #FinancialAdvice #RealEstateInvesting #FinancialEducation #EconomicTrends #MarketAnalysis
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https://www.PandemicInvesting.com -
Jason and Sean O'Toole of PropertyRadar.com discuss the current state of the real estate market, focusing on inventory trends, the impact of high interest rates, and the value of real estate over price. They also explore the potential for price drops, the influence of technological advancements on prices, and the challenges of rising housing costs. Lastly, they examine the activities of wholesalers in the real estate market and the ongoing issue of foreclosures, with Sean providing insights on his company's data tracking system and the shift in the market due to a scarcity of available properties. They also discuss the impact of housing inventory levels and credit card debt, noting the importance of adjusting these figures for population growth. O'Toole highlights California's housing crisis, where strict building regulations and NIMBYism hinder affordable housing development. He points out that while modern homes are sturdier, the costs have skyrocketed, making new affordable housing virtually "illegal." O'Toole also explains the shift in the real estate market, where wholesalers are increasingly selling properties directly to consumers rather than investors due to inventory shortages, affecting traditional investment strategies. https://www.propertyradar.com/
#RealEstate #HousingMarket #InventoryCrisis #HomePrices #AffordableHousing #HousingShortage #BuildingCodes #CaliforniaHousing #ForeclosureCrisis #RealEstateInvestment #HomeConstruction #HousingPolicy #MarketTrends #RealEstateTips #InvestmentProperties
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https://www.PandemicInvesting.com -
Jason welcomes Mike Simonsen of Altos Research. Mike discusses real estate trends, noting increased inventory leading to higher sales. Despite higher mortgage rates, demand persists, with 2.8 to 7.7 million more buyers qualifying as rates drop. This surge could strain inventory, creating a competitive market. Simonsen emphasizes the need for sustained higher rates to restore pre-pandemic inventory levels. Jason Hartman underscores the market's importance for the broader economy, highlighting the stimulus from home purchases. Both foresee continued demand, especially if rates decrease, but caution about potential supply shortages amid heightened buyer interest.
https://www.altosresearch.com/
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Jason introduces Sahala Moshsin and her book "Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order" and discusses the impact of economic sanctions, particularly those imposed on Russia. They also explore the challenges faced by countries trying to work around the US dollar's global dominance, the mounting debt and its implications for the country's future, and the negative impacts of US currency policy on globalization. Lastly, Saleha discusses the current social and economic upheavals and the importance of understanding the economy through a currency lens.
#PaperSoldiers #USCurrency #DollarHegemony #GlobalFinance #EconomicSanctions #ForeignPolicy #BrettonWoods #FinancialSystem #Globalization #Inflation #DebtCrisis #FutureOutlook #EconomicPolicy #InternationalRelations #USPolitics
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Jason and Lance Lambert finish their discussion as they explore the "lock-in effect" caused by historically low mortgage rates. They highlight the significant impact on home sales and turnover rates in the real estate market, with a 57% reduction in home sales due to fixed-rate mortgage holders unwilling to give up their low-interest loans. They also touch on the multifamily housing market's influence on single-family rentals, noting that while rent increases have moderated, they remain solid. Data from Zillow and institutional players like Invitation Homes and American Homes for Rent provide insights into rental trends. Overall, despite market dynamics, investors can still find opportunities in the real estate landscape.
#RealEstateMarket #MortgageRates #HomeownershipTrends #RentalMarketAnalysis #InstitutionalInvestors #PropertyInvesting #HousingTrends #MarketInsights #FinancialStrategy #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunities #PropertyManagement #RealEstateIndustry #MarketAnalysis
https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/
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Lance Lambert, co-founder of Resi Club, discusses the real estate market's nuances with host Jason Hartman. Lambert highlights the tight resale market, down 30-35% from pre-pandemic levels in 2019, noting that despite this, 2019 wasn't a buyer's market. Affordability strains persist, especially in areas like Connecticut, impacted by the "donut effect" from pandemic migration. Lambert emphasizes builders' resilience, adjusting home sizes and finishes to tackle affordability while maintaining profit margins. He anticipates a shift towards smaller homes due to changing demographics. Despite challenges, residential construction employment remains strong, indicating continued market stability.
#RealEstateInsights #ResiClub #LanceLambert #HousingMarketAnalysis #SupplyDynamics #RealEstateTrends #RealEstateResearch #ExpertInterview #LanceLambertInsights #PandemicMigration #HousingTrends #DonutEffect #HomeBuilderStrategies #Affordability #DRHortonAnalysis
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Jason and Amanda, a certified public accountant and author, discussed the potential negative impact of the 2024 budget proposal on real estate investors, the benefits of cost segregation for tax reduction, and the advantages of being a real estate professional. They also highlighted the importance of tax planning, the depreciation schedule for breast implants, and the potential for cost segregation. Lastly, they cautioned against tax misconceptions and encouraged listeners to consult with their CPAs for maximum tax benefits.
https://www.jasonhartman.com/costseg/
https://www.keystonecpa.com/
#RealEstateTaxSavings #CostSegregationHack #AccelerateDepreciation #RentalPropertyTaxTip #TaxProTip #RealEstateInvesting #TaxSavings #MortgageFree #LinearMarkets #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialAdvice #WealthBuilding #PropertyOwnership #MarketAnalysis #EconomicInsights #AssetAllocation #smartinvesting
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Jason welcomes real estate analyst Rick Sharga. Rick discusses the housing market and economic trends. Despite concerns of a crash, he suggests a slow period with modest price increases rather than a downturn. He dismisses crash predictions, highlighting historical data showing home prices generally rise during recessions. Sharga addresses factors like consumer spending, job growth, inflation, and Fed policies influencing mortgage rates. He acknowledges the possibility of a mild recession due to Fed actions but emphasizes it may not significantly impact real estate if inventory remains low and distressed sellers are scarce.
Rick also dives into the NAR lawsuit and the current state of the housing market, highlighting mortgage rates near 20-year highs affecting purchase loan applications and pending home sales due to decreased affordability. He anticipates gradual mortgage rate declines attracting more buyers than sellers, likely resulting in increased competition and rising prices. Existing home sales show a 6.5% year-over-year price increase, while new home prices have decreased by 15% from peak levels. Investor purchases remain robust, primarily driven by individual investors rather than institutions. Flipping activity has declined due to pricing challenges, but gross profits are improving, indicating a potential resurgence.
#RickSharga #RealEstateTrends #HousingMarket #HomeSales #MortgageRates #NARLawsuit #AffordabilityCrisis #MarketAnalysis #FoxBusinessInsights
https://cjpatrick.com/
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Jason welcomes Stephen M.R. Covey as they discuss his book "The Speed of Trust." In business, cultivating trust is key for successful deals and relationships. The principle of "win-win or no deal" emphasizes fair collaboration, where both parties benefit. Trust fosters enduring relationships, enabling faster, more efficient cooperation. Smart trust involves assessing situations, clarifying expectations, and ensuring accountability. While contracts are necessary, they can't substitute genuine trust. Transparent, open, and fair dealings build reputations that lead to repeat and referral business. Long-term success lies in creating a high-trust culture, where mutual respect and consideration drive not just transactions, but positive, enduring partnerships.
Key Takeaways:
1:24 Welcome, Stephen
2:33 What is trust?
3:57 A tall order- developing trust
7:03 Smart trusting- giving trust without being a 'doormat'
10:07 Trust- AND verify
12:10 Trust in Fortune 1,000 companies
14:46 High trust dividends
19:44 My cynical views and a perpetual downward cycle
24:42 Solutions in building trust
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Jason and Paul Moore delve into the current state of commercial real estate, focusing on multifamily, office, RV and mobile home markets. They discuss the rise of rescue capital, which assists struggling deals, particularly in multifamily, where many properties are overpriced. They explore how office markets may never fully recover due to remote work trends and pandemic-induced lifestyle changes. They also touch on the impact of struggling office portfolios on banks, revealing a potential contagion effect. Overall, they suggest a nuanced understanding of the commercial real estate landscape is crucial amidst ongoing market shifts.
#RemoteWorkRevolution #OfficeMarketTrends #PostPandemicWorkplace #CommercialRealEstateInsights #RemoteWorkImpact #IndustryAnalysis #OfficeSpaceInvesting #RealEstateOpportunities #AdaptToChange #FutureOfWork #OfficeMarketEvolution #WorkplaceTrends #OfficeRealEstate #EconomicDynamics #MarketAnalysis
Key Takeaways:
0:56 The state of "commercial real estate"
4:42 Self storage
6:35 Multifamily
9:30 Rescue capital and pref equity
13:54 Office space and RV parks
21:02 RV parks and AirBnB https://rvshare.com/ https://www.outdoorsy.com/
27:40 Mobile home parks
https://www.wellingscapital.com/
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Jason welcomes back guest Martin Armstrong, a renowned economic forecaster. The conversation touches on Armstrong’s background, experiences in the financial industry, and his computer-driven approach to analysis. Armstrong’s economic confidence model predicts a peak on May 7th, signaling a shift towards a recession, civil unrest, and international conflicts into 2028. He emphasizes the significant role of the U.S. as a consumer-based economy and the global demand for American products, asserting that despite challenges, the U.S. dollar remains a strong reserve currency. Armstrong also discusses economic dynamics in Europe, Japan, and China.
Key Takeaways:
0:46 A historic overview by Martin Armstrong and the currencies
5:50 Data driven approach
9:30 Economic Confidence Model
10:21 May 7, 2024: save the date
13:41 The past 10 years and what it means to us now
19:07 The future is… stagflation and Inflation
23:52 CBDCs and big tech
ArmstrongEconomics.com
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Jason welcomes Joshua Simon, founder of Simon Commercial Real Estate, as they discuss the state of commercial real estate. Josh highlights the strength of retail, especially in open-air strip centers and grocery-anchored spaces. Simon emphasized the retail renaissance, citing low vacancy rates and increased demand. Industrial properties faced challenges due to overbuilding, particularly in larger formats. Simon recommended investing in debt instruments or high-yielding retail assets, focusing on quick-service restaurants with strong operators and understanding lease structures. He also noted the value in acquiring vacant spaces from struggling tenants due to the scarcity of real estate.
https://SimonCRE.com/
#CommercialRealEstate #RetailRenaissance #IndustrialProperty #InvestmentStrategy
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Jason discusses the topic of decentralized finance (defi) and its potential advantages in the cryptocurrency world. He also touches on the issue of the US housing shortage and how it presents opportunities for real estate investors. Additionally, Jason highlights the benefits of joining the “Fire Your Managers” program and announced an upcoming Empowered Investor pro meeting that will host a guest who will present a special “tenant insurance” product. Finally, he invites everyone to join their community to grow their real estate portfolio.
Jason then interviews Professor Campbell R. Harvey from Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the author of DeFi and the Future of Finance as they talk about the yield curve and Decentralized Finance. Harvey discusses the phenomenon of an inverted yield curve, which has predicted every recession for the last several decades. Harvey expressed his concern about the current inverted yield curve, which has been in place for 12 months, traditionally leading to a recession. Jason and Campbell also discuss the significance of an inverted yield curve and the potential of decentralized finance (defi) in the financial world. They identified problems with the current financial system and the possibility of solutions through DeFi, such as the need for an alternative to the SWIFT system for wire transfers and the ability to store and use value in transactions. With the advent of WEB 3.0 and the decentralization of monetary assets, DeFi is truly set to revolutionize the world in all economic aspects especially finance.
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Jason welcomes Selma Hepp, the Chief Economist of Core Logic. They discuss the challenging state of the real estate market and noted that the market was facing issues due to rising mortgage rates, which led to a decline in transactions and mortgage refinances. Additionally, she highlighted that existing homeowners were benefiting from this situation due to their low mortgage rates and increasing equity. Selma also pointed out that the volume of home sales was down by 18% last year and was expected to decline by a similar amount this year, while mortgage origins were likely to be down by 30-35%. She also mentioned that the inventory of available homes for sale was at its lowest level historically, a quarter of where it was before the great recession. Despite this challenging market, Selma didn’t expect much change until the spring of next year.
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Jason discusses the state of the economy, focusing on the role of the Federal Reserve and potential supply chain issues. He also shared his opinion on the strength of the US dollar and Argentina’s decision to adopt it. Towards the end, Jason addressed the issue of inflation and its steady fall since June of the previous year. He also discussed changes in active inventory across various local real estate markets, comparing it to 2019, and highlighted the importance of inventory in the real estate market.
Then Jason and Brian Beaulieu, Chief Economist at ITR Economics, talks about the state of the global economy, particularly in China and Europe and the potential for deflation in the real estate market in the early 2030s, the expected trajectory of inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response to it, and the state of the US housing market. They also highlight the resilience of the real estate market, even in a high-interest-rate environment, and the importance of being unleveraged in the United States and in demographically superior states.
#EconomicOutlook #RealEstateInvesting #GlobalEconomicTrends #ChinaEconomicGrowth #DemographicChallenges #Inflation #InterestRates #HousingMarket #Affordability #CulturalShifts
https://www.CalculatedRiskBlog.com/2023/01/housing-january-30th-weekly-update.html
https://ITREconomics.com/
Key Takeaways:
Jason’s editorial
1:29 Defeating inflation, US Dollar hegemony and Argentina
4:30 FED- ready for the next crisis
7:08 Local inventory numbers
10:44 Shadow demand vs. shadow supply
Brian Beaulieu interview
12:21 Income property- getting the middle class wealthy
14:12 Macro view on a global scale
15:38 Chart: China is weakening and will continue to weaken
16:25 Chart: Historic opportunity- India is the most populous country
18:27 Making the case for deflation in the 2030’s
22:21 Chart: This is only round one of inflation going forward
25:36 Capitulation- buyers will eventually accept less
29:46 How it all relates to the rental housing market
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https://www.PandemicInvesting.com -
Jason talks about the importance of understanding the relationship between household real estate value, mortgage debt, and GDP. The presented chart indicates increased equity and decreased mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP, highlighting a more stable housing market. He touches on the benefits of leveraging properties and he analyzes a chart on median sold prices based on bedroom count, revealing significant appreciation in lower-priced properties.
Jason welcomes Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, as they discuss the current state of the real estate market. Despite concerns about rising interest rates, Kiefer highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy, emphasizing the stability of the housing market throughout 2023. While acknowledging a potential slowdown in consumer spending due to higher rates, Kiefer pointed out that the housing market has seen low transaction volumes and reduced refinance activity, impacting affordability. He also discussed the unique situation of homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates, estimating the value of their locked-in rates at around $55,000 per borrower. Kiefer predicted a gradual thawing of the market as consumers adapt to the new interest rate environment. He also underscored the importance of considering broader economic factors and demographic trends in understanding the housing market’s dynamics.
#RealEstate #HousingMarket #EconomicOutlook #Millennials #HousingMarket #RealEstate #EconomicAnalysis
Key Takeaways:
Jason’s editorial
1:28 Introducing Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac
1:46 Chart: Household real estate value and mortgage debt as percent of GDP
4:43 FireYourManager.com
5:41 RocketHomes Chart: Median sold price by bedroom count
Len Kiefer interview
8:33 The view from 30,000 feet
11:24 Charts: Spike in mortgage rates made it very expensive for homeowners to move
13:25 Chart: Historically low rates in previous years means there is no Refi incentive given today’s rates
14:47 Chart: Homeowners locked into low mortgage rates are content to remain in their current homes
20:53 Market is starting to thaw
22:34 Chart: Due to savings from fixed mortgages, household spending may be less sensitive to financial conditions
27:30 Chart: Housing demand robust on favorable Age demographics of FTHBs
31:53 Chart: The U.S. faces a massive undersupply of housing
34:40 Chart: Strong demand from FTHBs and low supply led to a surge in entry-level home prices
38:32 Higher housing costs are contributing to more young adults living at home with their parents
For more information visit https://www.freddiemac.com/research
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Today Jason talks about “shadow demand” in the housing market. He emphasizes the impact of demographics, particularly the 25 to 34 age group, where about 16% are still living at home, representing untapped demand. With 11 million potential homebuyers in this category, Jason explores the dynamics of supply and demand, debunking predictions of a looming shadow supply. He also touches on factors like low inventory, the influence of baby boomers staying in their homes, and potential wildcards like geopolitical risks affecting the housing market’s trajectory.
Then Jason and Bridger finish their conversation as they delve into the housing market, the economy, and financial trends, noting that millennials and Gen Z are gradually entering it, causing a housing inventory shortage. Despite rising interest rates, the market still faces low inventory levels. The conversation shifts to the potential impact on banks due to an inverted yield curve, bond values, and the housing market’s reliance on new construction. They also explore the possibility of a banking crisis and discuss the Fed’s role in managing interest rates. Jason concludes with insights on the strength of the U.S. dollar, the perceived threat of BRICS nations, and the inevitability of central bank digital currencies, raising concerns about financial freedom.
#peterschiff #RobertKiyosaki #ShadowDemand #SupplyAndDemand #RealEstate #HousingMarket #Economy #InterestRates #Banking #USDollar #BRICS #CBDC
Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN
Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI
Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/
Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/
Free Class: Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund
CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning:
http://JasonHartman.com/ProtectGet wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals
Special Offer from Ron LeGrand:
https://JasonHartman.com/RonFree Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing:
https://www.PandemicInvesting.com -
Jason discusses the impact of mortgage status on the US housing market and wealth distribution, highlighting the growing wealth gap and the formation of two socioeconomic classes due to approximately 40% of US homeowners not having a mortgage. He also touched on the performance of cyclical markets, particularly in luxury markets in Miami, New York, and California, attributing low sales volume to low inventory and high buyer demand. Lastly, he mentioned an upcoming cruise event and a monthly Zoom meeting for empowered investor pro members, in which they’ll be talking about insurance for landlords against tenant damage.
Then Bridger Pennington of FundLaunch.com interviews Jason Hartman, renowned real estate expert. They delve into macroeconomics, market trends, and the impact of interest rates on housing affordability. Hartman emphasizes the unique value of today’s low-rate mortgages and challenges predictions of a housing crash. The discussion also covers inflation-induced debt strategies and the current housing inventory shortage. Insightful, forward-looking, and packed with actionable advice for investors, Jason provides a comprehensive understanding of the real estate landscape.
https://www.FundLaunch.com
#bridgerpennington #RealEstateInsights #HousingMarketDecode #MarketTrendsUnveiled #PropertyInvestmentWisdom #FinancialFreedomJourney #DebunkingRealEstateMyths
Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN
Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI
Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/
Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/
Free Class: Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund
CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning:
http://JasonHartman.com/ProtectGet wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals
Special Offer from Ron LeGrand:
https://JasonHartman.com/RonFree Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing:
https://www.PandemicInvesting.com - Show more
