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The polls are close enough that this election could go either way. But whatever happens, the focus groups over the last year-plus have given some clues about what's motivating the swing voters voting for Trump, and those voting for Harris. Atlantic senior editor Ron Brownstein joins Sarah to listen to voters and what the Trump and Harris coalitions might look like.
show notes
By Ron Brownstein:
The Democratic Theory of Winning With Less
The Improbable Coalition That Is Harris’s Best Hope -
There's one thing Republican and Democratic strategists all agree on right now: no state is more likely to decide this election than Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania-based POLITICO reporter Holly Otterbein joins Sarah to break down Pennsylvania's shift to the right in recent years, and why Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is finding himself in a surprisingly close race.
Show Notes:
Spotlight PA: Democrats in Pa. approach 2024 election with slimmest voter registration advantage in decades
By Holly Otterbein:
Harris ramps up her appeals to Republican voters in the Philly suburbs
‘Pennsylvania is such a mess’: Inside Team Harris’ unusual levels of finger-pointing
Dems see warning signs for Harris with Latino men in Pennsylvania -
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Donald Trump may well win both Arizona and Nevada, but Republican Senate candidates there are on the struggle bus. Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent joins to break down Sarah's recent focus groups with PBS in Nevada, and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez of the Washington Post discusses Arizona's abortion rights referendum and Kari Lake's comeback attempt in the U.S. Senate race.
Editor's note: This episode was taped before the October 17 release of Ruben and Kate Gallego's divorce records. -
Michigan and Wisconsin aren't just presidential battlegrounds; their Senate races are getting more competitive down the stretch. So how are swing voters thinking about their options?
Craig Gilbert, former DC bureau chief for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, and Craig Mauger, political reporter for the Detroit News, join Sarah to break down the electoral landscape in the upper midwest.
Show notes:
By Craig Gilbert: What polling tells us about Wisconsin's undecided voters
The Bulwark's Swing State Swing -
The pundit class thought JD Vance performed better than Tim Walz in the vice presidential debate. Voters thought Vance was a good performer, but they couldn't quite shake their skepticism. Puck News's John Heilemann joins Sarah to review voters' reactions to the VP debate and the history of VP picks more broadly.
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Some of today's first-time voters were 10 years old when Donald Trump launched his first presidential campaign, so he's all they've known in politics. That's certainly affected how they look at politics, across the political spectrum. Puck's Peter Hamby joins Sarah to discuss the youth vote in the home stretch of the 2024 election.
show notes
September 2024 Harvard Youth Poll
By Peter:
The Left’s Trumpnesia Problem
Kamala’s Generation Gap
The Swift-Rogan Election -
Sarah recently sat down with Reid Hoffman and Aria Finger on their podcast Possible to talk about the future of politics, the origins of her focus group work, and how artificial intelligence might impact that work.
https://possible.fm/podcast -
We're taking a break from the presidential race this week. The battle for control of the Senate is running through red states, with former Trump voters. Some of them are more persuadable than others. Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report joins Sarah to discuss the Senate races in Ohio, Montana, and Texas, and the role of abortion politics in this year's Senate races.
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Kamala Harris crushed Donald Trump in this week's debate...and swing voters noticed. CNN's Dana Bash joins Sarah to discuss her new book, this week's debate, her experience as the co-moderator of the June 27 debate, and the role of moderator fact-checking in both debates.
show notes
By Dana Bash and David Fisher:
America's Deadliest Election: The Cautionary Tale of the Most Violent Election in American History -
Kamala Harris's campaign has created a month of immaculate vibes, but plenty of voters are still skeptical. Semafor Washington bureau chief Benjy Sarlin joins Sarah to discuss the state of the race going into the second debate, and Harris's standing with skeptical former Biden voters.
show notes
Adam Carlson's Crosstab Aggregator
Relevant past episodes:
With black voters:
March 2024, with Ashley Allison
July 2024, with Audie Cornish
With hispanic voters:
October 2023, with Ruy Teixeira
June 2024, with Amy Walter -
The Democratic National Convention was a respite from Democrats' summer of despair, and a lot of the good vibes filtered down to swing voters...but are good vibes enough? Democratic pollster John Anzalone joins Sarah to listen to how the new ticket looks to swing voters...and even some former Trump voters who are now Harris-curious.
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The Bulwark is ON LOCATION at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, and we've got quite a lot to talk about! National Political Reporter Joe Perticone joins Sarah to recap the sights and sounds from the convention. They also walk through swing voters' reactions to the Harris-Walz ticket, and how plugged in they were to convention coverage generally (not very much).
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JD Vance's evolution on Trump over the years has left voters wondering what he really believes. But our guest this week can shed some light on that. POLITICO's Ian Ward joins Sarah to discuss his reporting on JD Vance and the "new right" more broadly. They also discuss Ian's reporting from inside Project 2025, and the role it may play in a future Trump administration...regardless of what Trump says.
Show notes
By Ian Ward:
It Was Supposed to Be Trump’s Administration in Waiting. But Project 2025 Was a Mirage All Along.
Is There Something More Radical than MAGA? J.D. Vance Is Dreaming It.
JD Vance on Elizabeth Warren, Steve Bannon and What’s Wrong With the GOP
Are Republican Voters Ready for the Nerdy Radicalness of JD Vance?
The Seven Thinkers and Groups That Have Shaped JD Vance’s Unusual Worldview -
Sarah is on vacation this week, but we didn't want to leave you without some focus group reactions to Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz joining the Democratic ticket. Listen to how swing voters from around the country AND Minnesota voters who know Walz best are thinking about him and the presidential race more broadly. We'll see you next week.
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Kamala Harris is closing in on a vice presidential pick, and her shortlist looks...a LOT different than Joe Biden's shortlist did in 2020. New Bulwark managing editor Sam Stein joins Sarah to break down Harris's options and walk through his new reporting on scammy Democratic PACs.
show notes
By Sam Stein:
Harris Camp Warns Supporters: Don’t Get Duped by ‘Scam PACs’
They Begged Dems for Money—Then Spent Lavishly on Hotels and Entertainment -
At the 11th hour, Kamala Harris is now the presumptive Democratic nominee. Longtime listeners will know that swing voters have had a negative impression of her--but luckily, it's just an impression! David Axelrod, former senior advisor to President Obama, joins Sarah to walk through where Harris goes from here.
show notes
The Bulwark in Dallas on September 5
The Axe Files with David Axelrod
Hacks on Tap -
The Republican National Convention took place with the backdrop of an assassination attempt, and Donald Trump added a MAGA true believer to his ticket, in J.D. Vance. The Bulwark's Marc Caputo joins Sarah from Milwaukee to discuss the convention, the aftermath of the assassination attempt on Trump, and voters' reactions to the Trump-Vance ticket.
This episode was recorded before Donald Trump's acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention.
show notes
Marc Caputo in The Bulwark: White Men Can Vote: The Logic Behind J.D. Vance for VP -
Democrats' spin holds that the calls for Joe Biden to drop out are driven by the media, while base Democratic voters beyond Washington are committed to seeing Biden as the nominee, and there will be a backlash if he isn't. In a series of focus groups with black Democratic voters this week, we found the truth to be more complicated. Audie Cornish, host of the CNN podcast The Assignment with Audie Cornish, joins Sarah to evaluate how Democratic voters (especially black voters) are grappling with whether Joe Biden should stay in the race...and how perceptions of Kamala Harris are driving the discussion.
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Joe Biden's debate performance was a disaster...and voters noticed. Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller bring you the voters' reactions and a frank discussion about the risks and rewards of Biden stepping aside as the nominee...because something in this race has to change.
show notes
Puck News: Biden Plunges in Swing States in Leaked Post-Debate Poll -
We taped this show before Joe Biden's disastrous first debate, but its thesis still holds true: he's losing this race. To better understand why, we fielded a group of Hispanic voters who voted for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, and are now leaning towards Trump. Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report joins Sarah to break down why these voters are giving Donald Trump a fresh look.
From Amy Walter:
Biden’s Slumping Poll Numbers Not Only Limited to Swing States
Defectors and Double-Haters: Who Are They, and Who Can Win Them? - Daha fazla göster
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