Episodes
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This episode digs into one of my favorite books of all time: The Big Change by Frederick Lewis Allen. Written in 1952, it's a remarkable look at how quickly the world can change, with so many profound insights that I find relevant today.
Special thanks to my friends at Readwise.io/morgan for making this happen. -
There's a Russian saying that I love: "The past is more unpredictable than the future." It explains so much about nostalgia, and the twisted ways we all view the economic past.
This episode is brought to you by my friends at 10 East – an investment platform for sophisticated investors to access private markets. To learn more visit 10east.co. -
Missing episodes?
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A lot of mistakes in life come when you think risk is something caused by external forces, when in fact the weight of your own success is enough to pull you down without any outside help.
This episode is brought to you by my friends at 10 East – an investment platform for sophisticated investors to access private markets. To learn more visit 10east.co. -
The ultimate success metric is whether you get what you want out of life. But that’s harder than it sounds because it’s easy to try to copy someone who wants something you don’t.
This episode is brought to you by my friends at 10 East – an investment platform for sophisticated investors to access private markets. To learn more visit 10east.co. -
Some of the most interesting stuff I've come across lately.
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In some fields our knowledge is seamlessly passed down across generations. In others, it’s fleeting. To paraphrase investor Jim Grant: Knowledge in some fields is cumulative. In other fields it’s cyclical (at best).
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Jeff Bezos once said there are different kinds of smart. Distinguishing the various flavors is important because if you think smarts comes in just one form, you’ll miss dozens of other nuanced varieties.
BS is the same. It comes in countless forms, some harder to spot than others. False modesty, projecting, double standards, hypocrisy, tugging at heartstrings – these aren’t lies; they’re subtle forms of BS which is why they’re so prevalent.
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A few important money and life topics to make you ponder.
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"Nature is not in a hurry, yet everything is accomplished,” said Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu.
Giant sequoias, advanced organisms, towering mountains – it builds the most jaw-dropping features of the universe. And it does so silently, where growth is almost never visible right now but staggering over long periods of time.
It’s quiet compounding, and it’s a wonder to see.
I like the idea of quietly compounding your money. Just like in nature, it’s where you’ll find the most impressive results.
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My deepest forecasting belief is that you can better understand the future if you focus on the behaviors that never change instead of the events that might.
And those behaviors have a common denominator: They follow the path of least resistance of people trying to simplify a complex world into a few stories that make sense and make them feel good about themselves.
Simple stories, feel-good stories. Those are some of history’s most seductive beliefs, and they always will be.
Here are a few that stick out.
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The most productive work you can do often looks like the laziest -- but it can be hard to accept that because of how the workplace has changed over the last 100 years.
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Every great idea can be taken too far.
Take the notion that investors should ignore the short run.It's important to recognize that the long run is just a collection of short runs, and capturing long-term growth means managing the short run effectively enough to ensure you can stick around for a long time.
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I wrote letters to both of my kids the day before they were born.
Here's what I wanted them to know about money.
And even if you don't have, or want, kids, I think you'll find this helpful. -
Hacks are hard because shortcuts rarely exist. Prizes take time and effort.
The personal finance industry – filled with advice that sounds and feels good without moving the needle – needs to recognize this.
These aren’t fun hacks, but no one said this was easy.
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Luck plays such a big role in the world. But few people want to talk about it. If I say you got lucky, I look jealous. If I tell myself that I got lucky, I feel diminished.
Maybe a better way to frame luck is by asking: what isn’t repeatable?
And maybe better yet: The way to get luckier is to find what’s repeatable. -
The fun part of behavioral finance is learning about how flawed other people can be. The hard part is trying to figure out how flawed you are, and what stories make sense to you but would seem crazy to others.
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A few of the best and most insightful things I've read lately.
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Woodrow Wilson was the only president with a Ph.D. in political science.
He came to office having thought more about how a government functions than most before him or since.
One of his complaints was that too many people in government held the belief that it was a Big Machine: that once you set up a series of rules you could take your hands off the wheel and let the government run on its own forever. They viewed government like physics, with a set of customs and laws that required no updating or second-guessing because they were believed to be precise and perfect as they were.
Wilson thought that was wrong. He viewed government as being a living thing that adapted and evolved.
I really don't care about politics. But he had a theory that I think is so important, and so applicable, to us ordinary people managing our money. -
Mae West said, “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful.” That might be true for some things – health, happiness, golden retrievers, maybe.
But in so many cases the thing that helps you can be taken to a dangerous level. And since it’s a “good thing,” not an obvious threat, its danger creeps into your life unnoticed.
Take intelligence.
How could someone possibly be too intelligent? How do you get to a point where you realize you could have been more successful if you had been a little dumber?
Let me share three reasons why.
And if you're looking for another podcast to listen to, check out The Rundown by my friends at Public.com. It's a quick five-minute listen that gets you all caught up on the latest in the stock market, the economy, and in crypto. Hope you enjoy it. -
This episode discusses my take on what you should pay attention to when reading history.
There’s a quote I love from writer Kelly Hayes who says, “Everything feels unprecedented when you haven’t engaged with history.”It’s so true. History’s cast of characters changes but it’s the same movie over and over again.
To me, the point of paying attention to history is not the specific details of certain events, which are always random and never repeat; it’s the big-picture behaviors that reoccur in different eras, generations, and societies.
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