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Wednesday 14th August 2024
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Softer than expected producer prices in the US has convinced the markets that the Fed will be ready to cut in September. NAB’s Skye Masters says in an environment where decisions by central banks are so data dependent we are seeing wide shifts in sentiment, particularly in equity and bond markets, as each release is published. That means the markets at the US close on Wednesday could be violently different on Thursday when US CPI is released. We can also expect some volatility from the RBNZ decision today, with analysts split on whether or not the NZ central bank will cut rates.
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Tuesday 13th August 2024
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US shares and bond markets have remained relatively calm, as we await the latest inflation data from the US (PPI today, CPI tomorrow). There’s plenty of data flow this week, says NAB’s Taylor Nugent, but there’s been nothing so far to move markets. Locally, will the speech from the RBA’s Andrew Hauser have any impact on the pricing for rate cuts this year? He criticised the media for talking with “extraordinary certainty” about the outlook of the economy and what the RBA was going to do about it. But markets are still pricing in a 50:50 chance of a rate cut as early as November, despite the bank’s determined effort to convince us otherwise.
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Monday 11th August 2024
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Remember when Pauk Keating talked about the recession we had to have? Markets thought the US was heading the same way last week, but went off the idea as the week progressed. Thoughts of an emergency rate cut were quickly dismissed, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s still more than 25bp of cuts priced in for September. A 50bp cut could still happen before the end of the year. US inflation data is out this week but, unless there’s an outsize surprise, markets are unlikely to respond too much. The focus is on jobs now, although the Fed’s Michelle Bowman outlined several inflation risk factors on Friday that are worth watching for.
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Friday 9th August 2024
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
Friday (Aug 9th) is the United Nations' International Day of the World's Indigenous Peoples. To celebrate, the Morning Call looks at how Australia is witnessing a growth in companies established and run by Indigenous Peoples.
NAB’s Noel Prakash says there’s been a shift from predominantly cultural and tourism related entities, to more mainstream businesses. He talks about Kooya as one example, providing fleet management and salary packing services to mineral businesses in Western Australia.
There’s the obvious opportunity for more to be done in the green space, too, from a people with a deep-rooted attachment to the earth. But what’s stopping us from having more Indigenous entrepreneurs? Noel talks about how NAB is amongst those offering more capital for start-ups, and how on a global scale even Twitter founder Jack Dorsey sees the size of the opportunity that can come from the right investment in Indigenous projects.
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Friday 9th August 2024
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There was a sharp turnaround in US equities, with the S&P closing up 2.3%. It seems a lot of weight has been put behind the weekly jobless claims number, which is not normally a data point that would drive markets. But in this climate anything is possible. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it was probably an overreaction. Whilst some might see the week’s fall in claims as supporting an argument that the US is a long way from recession, others will point to the trend which shows claims are rising and the job market is weakening. In Australia the RBA’s Michelle Bullock stepped up the language around the persistence of inflation to try and knock out expectations of cuts this year, and the rising Aussie dollar is a sign that maybe the markets are listening. Today, China’s inflation numbers and Canada’s employment data are the two main releases.
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Thursday 8th August 2024
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There is still a lot of volatility around. US shares started the session well, with strong signs that risk appetite was improving. Then came a weak response to a a $42 billion 10-year bond auction. That made markets nervous and US equities closed sharply in the red. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about why the auction didn’t go well, and the influence Japan is still having on markets, influenced yesterday and overnight by words from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida. Today the NAB Business Survey is out and the RBA’s Michelle Bullock speaks early afternoon.
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Wednesday 7th August 2024
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Is it feasible to expect a sharp recovery from one data set, after the extreme response to last week’s US jobs data? Markets bounced back sharply today, pushing US yields higher, strengthening the dollar and pushing shares back up. Although trade retraced its steps a little as the session marched on, with shares losing about half their gains at the US close. NAB’s Ken Crompton says we can expect volatility to be around for a while yet. Meanwhile, the RBA showed little concern for the risks of an economic slowdown, sending a clear message not to expect rate cuts this year and how they had given serious consideration to a rate hike this week. It’s a quieter session today, but that doesn’t man it won’t be just as volatile.
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Tuesday 6th August 2024
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US shares took more of a hammering on Monday, although an upside surprise on the Services ISM read stopped things spiralling from bad to worse. Phil talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about another day of volatile market action, particularly for Japan, where the Yen rose sharply and shares fell quickly. They talk about where is the Fed now on its path of cuts for the rest of the year, and whether markets overplayed the response to the weaker than expected jobs data. Does any of this have any influence over what the RBA does next, assuming they keep rates on hold today?
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Monday 5th August 2024
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There was a strong response to the weaker than expected US payrolls numbers on Friday, not on the heals of weak manufacturing data. Markets will be sensitive to the Services today, in case it adds another blow to US growth and fuels more inflation speculation.
NAB’s Taylor Nugent says part of the concern is that Friday’s rise in unemployment, from 3.8% in March to 4.3% in June, meets the criteria for the Sahm Rule, which is seen as a stronger predictor of a forthcoming recession.
The news on Friday was felt across most asset classes, with equities in the US and Europe particularly feeling the hurt. Whilst the Fed might be scrambling to play catch-up on rate cuts, Huw Pill has suggested the Bank of England is still fighting inflation, and the RBA is expected to remain on hold tomorrow.
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Friday 2nd August 2024
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The latest Bloomberg New Energy Outlook seems to show that globally we are way off the mark when it comes to reaching Net Zero by 2050. Instead, the report suggests we could still be pumping 25 gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. That’s less than today but not enough of a reduction to contain temperature growth. The numbers are based on Bloomberg’s Economic Transition scenario, which assumes we let the economy drive the decision making, without any further policy or investment strategies. But Leonard Quong, head of Australian research at Bloomberg NEF, says the differential between Net Zero and the Economic Transition scenario has been narrowing each year, so there is grounds for optimism. They also touch on the question of nuclear energy. It might make sense in some markets, but is it right for Australia?
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Friday 2nd August 2024
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The US share market has taken a bit of a beating after US manufacturing numbers came in a lot softer than expected. It was another sign of a US slow down that has some clearly wondering whether the Fed will cut more this year. There is no waiting for the BoE. They cut rates but NAB’s Gavin Friend says it was a finely balanced decision. Services inflation continues to be the UK’s Achilles heal, but their manufacturing numbers are doing better than most. Tonight all eyes will be on the US non-farm payrolls, particularly as Jerome Powell has indicated that the fed will be looking closely for any slowdown on the jobs market as, with inflation largely under control, it focuses more on the second part of its dual mandate.
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Thursday 1st August 2024
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It’s been a busy session, with US shares shooting higher as the Fe keeps rates on hold but the market reading the fed’s commentary of a September cut even more likely. During the press conference Jerome Powell basically said it was on the table if things carried on as they are. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the latest from the Fed, and suggests that yesterday’s softer than expected CPI print for Australia puts paid to any further talk of rate rises. But it’s also not good enough to bring forward cuts. The Bank of Japan did lift rates by 15bp, pushing yields up and a 2 percent rise in the Yen. Today the Bank of England meets. Will they really cut rates head of the Fed? And Meta reported strong earnings after the close, helping bolster after-hours trade.
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Wednesday 31st July 2024
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It’s a packed episode of The Morning Call today as Phil gets NAB’s Ray Attrill to take us through the latest GDP and inflation data from Europe, jobs data from the US and, from China, the Politburo’s promise to jump into action and reach 5% GDP, without really saying how. Today Australia’s CPI is the main point of interest because it could drive the RBA to an interest rate rise. A rise is expected from the bank of Japan later, perhaps a little more than previously thought. And Microsoft’s earnings results came in stronger than expected, but the after hours share price clearly didn’t like the softer results for intelligent cloud revenue.
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Tuesday 30th July 2024
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It’s been a quiet session, with shares and bond markets moving very little, as we await the Fed and some high-profile earnings results. We’ve seen very tight trading ranges, says NABs Skye Masters on today’s podcast. The mood music though is one of an anticipated slowdown. That’s why oil prices and industrial metals are down so much. McDonalds reported a fall in global sales in their latest earnings report. European GDP is the major number out today, a long with job openings for the US. And listen in for how US earnings results give a foretaste of where the US employment market is heading.
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Monday 29th July 2024
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Get ready for a busy week, with US jobs umbers, Australian inflation, three ig earnings results from US tech giants; and the Fed meets, so does the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says one will stay on hold, one is expected to lift rates and the other is 50:50 on a cut. He also discusses with Phil last week’s core PC numbers, which showed inflation was slowing, along with earnings and consumer spending. A scenario that is very supportive of cuts by the FOMC.
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Friday 26th July 2024
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Things are changing in Japan. After decades of not much happening, suddenly everything is happening. Core inflation is up to 2.6%, the Yen is the weakest in a long time, the stock market has hit highs not seen since the eighties, and the BoJ has moved interest rates into positive territory. It all points to a win for Japan according to Harry Ishihara, a macro strategist contractor for Macrobond and Japan Exchange Group. Suddenly companies feel enabled to raise prices and offer higher wages, helping increase margins and drive investment. He calls it Japan’s Inflation Revolution. But will it last? Was this the shot in the arm the economy needed, and how much is being driven simply by a weaker Yen. What’s to stop that weakness being eroded and Japan’s competitiveness diminished? Harry provides some very useful insights into what’s driving the value of Japan’s currency and why a weaker Yen could be here to stay.
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Friday 26th July 2024
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A sharp turnaround in US optimism it seems, with this week’s disappointing PMIs easily overwritten by an upside surprise on GDP. Jobless claims were also down a little. The response – rising equities and falling Treasury yields. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether Goldilocks is back on the horizon, offering a faster path to cuts with minimal economic damage. It’s a very different story in Europe though, where we saw PMIs sharply lower in Germany and reaffirmed by the IFO numbers out overnight. Of course central bank decisions ultimately rest on inflation numbers, so Tokyo’s CPI and June’s US Core PCE Deflator reads will be watched keenly.
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Thursday 25th July 2024
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Bill Dudey, former NY Fed Governor, now Bloomberg pundit, has said the FOMC needs to cut rates next week and it might already be too late to avoid a recession. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this comes from a man who had advocated staying higher for longer. His opinion certainly impacted 2 year bond yields overnight But the bigger news is the large falls in US equities, led by tech stocks, with the cost of AI and the slow delivery on promises taking the blame. PMIs came in weaker than expected, not just for Germany, where the fall was particularly pronounced, but also for US manufacturing, which might help Dudley’s arguments, but US GDP (out tonight) is expected to rise.
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Wednesday 24th July 2024
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Alphabet and Tesla both reported better than expected headline revenue numbers after the US close, but the mood is still cautious. The S&P, Dow and NASDAQ all closed in the red, but a 1% rise in the Russell 2000. JB Were’s Sally Auld talks about the return of rotation, with the prospect of lower rates boosting interest in the growth potential of smaller companies. And Sally points out there are only a couple of countries that are going against the idea of easing interest rates – one is Japan, who could well lift rates next week. The other is the Australia. NAB is not expecting an RBA rate hike, but comments from Michelle Bullock yesterday are getting more people thinking its possible. It’s all down to next week’s CPI number.
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Tuesday 23rd July 2024
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If markets were being driven by Trump-trade, the thought that he might have a more credible contender hasn’t had much impact. But what were we expecting? Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about whether, beyond bitcoin, the Trump-trade was a figment of our collective imaginations. Instead, the focus is back on tech, particularly as the first two of the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet and Telsa) report their earnings this time tomorrow. The surprise yesterday was a 10bp cut in China’s 1-year and 5-yea loan prime rates. But is it too small to have much impact?
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- Se mer
