Episodes
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Many consumers are still suffering annual double-digit increases in living essentials. So even though inflation measured as CPI is now reported to be under 3%, that flies in the face of the much higher cost increases real people experience in their daily lives.This is causing investors to start worrying: Will the cost of living outpace my ability to grow my wealth from here?In today's interview with the lead partners at financial advisory firm New Harbor Financial, we address strategies for avoiding that fate. We also discuss the big shoes that seem to be dropping in real-time around us that could disrupt the financial markets: fast-weakening jobs data, coming interest rate cuts, and increasing worries that AI isn't delivering the ROI that Wall Street expected.LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference#inflation #costofliving #marketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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Stocks have had a bad week, make worse on Friday when a mixed payrolls report sent investors into a tizzy trying to speculate whether deeper interest rate cuts were more or less likely in September. They eventually decided the latter, and then sent the price of many assets markedly lower.Portfolio Lance Roberts says the correction he's been expecting pre-election is now here. The big question from here is: how far will it go?Lance and I discuss that, plus the weakening jobs data, a recent un-inversion of the yield curve, the sell-off in AI darling Nvidia, and Lance's firm's recent trades in this week's Market Recap.LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference#bearmarket #marketcorrection #bonds--- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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Missing episodes?
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This interview comes hot on the heels of the one I just released with demographer Neil Howe in which we discussed the current period of extreme volatility and change -- which he calls the 4th Turning -- that he sees the world descending into.Long simmering issues are now at the point of boiling over, be it economic opportunity, crime, free speech, immigration, personal liberty -- the list is long.When the status quo starts getting upended, what's likely to come next?At times like this when the path forward is unclear and the stakes are high, it's wise to tap the counsel of those with a strong command of the lessons of history, and the practical experience of a lifetime in the market trenches.There are few who fit that description better than Dr Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of ‘’The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’Follow Marc at https://www.gloomboomdoom.com/#inflation #debtcrisis #marketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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The fault lines that divide our society are widening.The K-shaped recovery that we've seen since COVID has rewarded asset owners at the expense of everyone else.And millennials and Gen Zers, who are losing faith in being able to achieve a middle class lifestyle, look with increasing bitterness at the relative prosperity of the Boomer generation.These simmering grudges are only getting inflamed further by the divisive rhetoric of November's approaching US presidential election.Are we at risk of a class war? A generational war? An ideological civil war? Or a combination of all of these?Or, will we find a way to bridge our differences and come together?For perspective, we have the privilege of speaking today with demographer Neil Howe, co-author of the seminal book "The Fourth Turning" and its sequel "The Fourth Turning Is Here".WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#financialcrisis #fourthturning #demographics --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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One of the asset classes I get the most requests to do an interview on is farmland.It's a form of real estate investment that yields cash flow by producing commodities -- all attractive qualities to investors worried about inflation and/or the loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies.But how does it perform vs other asset classes?And how does one invest in farmland without being forced to become a farmer?For answers, we're fortunate to talk today with Craig Wichner, Managing Director of Farmland LP, which manages over 15,000 acres, farming them sustainably at scale.#farmland #soil #organicfarming
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The markets are back to overbought levels in the near term, both stocks and bonds, assesses portfolio manager Lance Roberts.And while he doesn't think an economic calamity necessarily lies ahead, we don't need one to justify a material downward correction in stocks.Stocks are valued based on their earnings forecast, and right now, forecasts are rosy.But there are multiplying signs that trouble lies ahead, especially in terms of consumer spending. If the economy does indeed slow from here, earnings will fall and stock prices will suffer.Right now, stocks are NOT priced for slowing earnings. Lance and I discuss this risk to asset prices, as well as Nvidia's recent earnings, the AI story in general, the struggling majority of American households and Lance's firm's latest trades in this week's Market Recap.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#nvidia #inflation #stockmarketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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Now that it seems the Fed has officially pivoted, what will lower interest rates mean for the economy and financial markets?Will they be enough to keep recession at bay and prevent a further rise in unemployment?What will the trillions of investor capital currently parked in T-bills and money markets go if the yields on those assets go down?For a true expert's view on these important questions, we have the great fortune to sit down today with one of the greatest living economists, Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company.We also discuss his views on the economic plans (as understood so far) of both presidential candidates. Punchline: Lacy is not impressed.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#federalreserve #election2024 #economy --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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Last week in his much-anticipated speech at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the "time has come for policy to adjust". World markets now have a 100% probability expectation that the Federal Funds Rate will be cut at the upcoming September meeting.In the words of Nick Timiraos, chief economist for the Wall Street Journal and suspected media mouthpiece for the Federal Reserve, "The Powell pivot is complete".Is that indeed the case?And if so, what should we expect from here from the speed and depth of rate cuts?What will the expected impacts be on the economy? And which ones will be felt soon, and which perhaps not for quarters from now?And lastly, is this the correct policy move the Fed should be pursuing?For a true expert's informed perspective on these very important questions, we have the great privilege today of speaking with Dr Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center.Follow Dr Hoenig at https://www.discoursemagazine.com/ or https://www.finregrag.com/WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com--- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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The war of conflicting narratives continues.Bulls point to Q2's robust GDP growth, still relatively low unemployment, an upside surprise in July retail sales, and record high prices for both stocks and existing homes.Bears on the other hand warn about slowing Q3 estimated GDP growth, the triggering of the Sahm rule recession indicator, this week's massive downward revision in payrolls, rising consumer debt delinquencies and recent surveys reporting that half of American adults have less than $500 in savings.When sentiment is full of such crosscurrents, it's prudent to seek the counsel of those who take. cold and calculated look at the data, to see what "is" vs what our biases may want us to see.Which is why we're fortunate to speak with macro analyst Wolf Richter of WolfStreet.com, who will share with us what the charts he regularly compiles are telling him about the true state of today's economy & markets.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#recession #economy #jobsdata--- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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Now that Jerome Powell has gone "full pivot", will stocks shoot higher?
Not necessarily, says portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz, who steps in this week while Lance Roberts moves into his new house.
He thinks stocks will be on a "choppy road to nowhere" between now and the election. We discuss why, as well as his rosy outlook for long-duration bonds on this week's Market Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#bonds #fedpivot #interestrates
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The Buffett Indicator currently stands at almost 200%, one of the most extreme readings of overvalution in its history.With stocks so richly valued, prudent investors worry that stretching for further gains here may not be worth the risk. Which is why more and more of them are starting to prioritize investing for income over appreciation.A few months back, I interviewed Steven Bavaria, creator of the Income Factory framework about the merits of constructing a lower-risk portfolio of income-generating assets that include: high dividend stocks, senior bonds, high yield bonds, covered call funds, Master Limited Partnerships, closed-end funds, and more.Today, Steven returns to drill down on the specifics of credit investing, an area that many investors don't have much personal experience in, but offers attractive returns and relative safety in today's market environment. Follow Steven at https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1356WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#incomeinvesting #creditinvesting #bondsinvesting--- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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We're currently receiving a lot of mixed signals about the direction of the economy?Inflation has dropped to 2.9%. And retail sales for July just beat expectations.That's good, right?But unemployment has rising to 4.3%, triggering the Sahm Rule recession indicator. And credit card and auto loan delinquencies are spiking. Wait -- those sound pretty concerning...So, what's the true health of the economy?Are we still on track for a soft/no landing scenario as we've been told for many quarters?Or might it be wise to start preparing for something harder?For answers, we're fortunately to speak today with someone who tracks the unfolding macro data on a daily basis, Mike "Mish" Shedlock, publisher of MishTalk.comWORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#recession #marketcorrection #unemployment --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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Here's a fun question:What better than interviewing your favorite macro expert?Interviewing BOTH your favorite macro experts at the same time!I'm happy & honored that today we get to sit down with Stephanie Pomboy AND her frequent partner in crime Grant Williams to hear their latest outlook for the economy and the markets, plus if we're lucky, a bit about sports and the meaning of life, too.This is an amazing & highly important discussion featuring two of the most respected minds in macro. And both agree: investors need to react to the changing environment else be caught flat-footed by it.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#recession #inflation #deflation
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Stocks have recovered aggressively since the sell-off two weeks ago.Does that signal the market correction that started in mid-July is over?Likely so, thinks portfolio manager Lance Roberts.We discuss the reasons why, as well as how his firm plans to position for higher prices ahead in this week's Market Recap.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#inflation #bullmarket #recession --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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Jeremy Grantham is one of the most respected investors alive today.His firm - Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. -- better known as GMO, manages $billions in assets under management and produces some of the most-followed market analysis on Wall Street. Core to its outlook is that financial and economic extremes will mean revert. And that prudent investors can pro-actively position themselves to benefit greatly from this reversion when it takes place.And while, no, I am NOT interviewing Mr Grantham today, we have the next best thing: the chance to sit down with one of his lieutenants at GMO.John Pease is a quantitative researcher and partner at GMO, who co-authored the firm's latest Quarterly Letter, which I expect to discuss with him in depth.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#stocks #emergingmarkets #investing--- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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The real estate market is a tangled mess right now.High vacancies along with higher interest rates and tighter lending standards are wreaking carnage across much of the commercial sector these days.However, higher mortgage rates have NOT brought down residential home prices, at least not on a national average...yet. That said, transactions have frozen up, falling to the lowest level in decades.Where is all this headed? Are things likely to get better, or worse, from here?For answers, we're fortunate to speak with Ivy Zelman today. Ivy is the Executive Vice President and Co-Founder of Zelman & Associates, one of the most respected research firms advising investors and corporate executives on the real estate market over the past 30 years.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#realestate #housingmarket #homeprices --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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When I interviewed today's guest last year1 he said that the forecast of his proprietary model made him about "as bullish as he'd ever been on stocks" heading into Q1And to give credit where credit is due, his positioning was spot on the money. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ increased by 10% in Q1.When I interviewed him again heading into Q2, his model said "stay the course, stay bullish"And again, the S&P rose another 4% in the quarter, and the NASDAQ did even better, rising 8%.So, given this impressive track record, what's his model telling us to expect from here?To find out we'll ask the man himself.Today we have the good fortune of speaking with Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro.Darius' model has him turning less bullish as we move from the past Goldilocks regime into a Deflation one.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#investing #deflation #stocks --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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What a week! The unwind of the yen carry trade sent global markets into free-fall on Monday.Equities tanked, as did Bitcoin, oil and gold. US Treasurys jumped, returning to their traditional inverse relationship to stocks.And then...everything reversed.Most due to central bank intervention in Japan, as well as some better than expected jobs data in the US.So, everyone is asking: Is the sell-off over? Is now the time to buy back in?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts doesn't think so (yet). In this week's Market Recap, we discuss why, as well as his outlook for the months ahead and his firm's recent trades.For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#investing #stocks #stevejobs --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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The Sahm Rule, a widely-monitored recession indicator, triggered on Friday.Some analysts are arguing that it's too early to worry about a slowdown, that the economy is too strong currently.Others warn the US may already BE in recession.So, which is it?For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for QI Research LLC and author of the book "Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America"WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#recession #jobs #labormarket --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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After declining for weeks, the global market sell-off accelerated on Monday. Why?The professional financial advisors endorsed by Thoughtful Money answered this + a number of other burning questions viewers asked in this live Q&A session
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
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