Episódios

  • Doug Campbell returns to SSG to provide an update on the war in Ukraine.

    Doug is the founder and CEO of Insight Prediction, an expert on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a whale trader himself.

    Doug argues that the war has become a stalemate and provides advice on how to trade on this reality.

    0:42: Doug's background


    0:52: Doug's SSG interview about his time in Russia https://youtu.be/BZ0BbIbMcYg?si=Hr-jrGmlmi3LX9O2

    1:11: Doug's talk on war markets at Manifest https://youtu.be/YrhsSohbRO4?si=07mDDuDKZRE2i9Y4

    1:32: Manifest conference 2024

    4:33: Interview begins

    5:17: High-level update on the war

    13:23: Ukrainian intelligence before the war

    14:37: U.S. intelligence estimates on Ukraine

    18:12: Optimism on both sides of the word

    19:21: Sanctions against Russia

    22:58: Odds of Putin being assassinated

    24:23: Russian involvement in Israel-Hamas conflict

    25:14: Impact of a Trump victory

    26:02: Western aid to Ukraine

    28:01: Odds of Putin leaving office

    29:48: Odds of Russian nuclear escalation

    31:00: How to trade ceasefire markets

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  • Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference.

    In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community.

    In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, returns to assess the Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn's odds of becoming Trump's VP pick.

    In Part 3, Nathan Young returns to the show to advise on how to short AI hype in betting markets.

    0:00: Pratik introduces the segment with Saul Munn
    1:24: Saul's disclaimer on conflicts of interest

    1:56: Manifest Conference 2024
    3:26: Intro for Brian Darling segment on the GOP VP nominee market
    4:16: How to trade on the GOP VP nomination
    5:08: Intro to interview with Nathan Young
    9:03: Interview with Saul begins
    9:26: The importance of community in the political betting space
    11:00: Optic forecasting clubs
    12:44: How Saul became interested in the forecasting community
    13:25: Manifest Conference
    13:46: Diversity in the forecasting community
    14:32: Who is in the broader forecasting community?
    14:56: Destiny's role in the forecasting community
    16:57: The types of people who are interested in forecasting
    19:44: Differences between Washington politics and the forecasting community
    20:40: Differences between the political betting community and the forecasting community
    21:18: Communities interested in forecasting
    21:47: Communities that could be interested in forecasting
    24:34: Why some communities resist forecasting
    28:20: Segment with Brian Darling begins
    28:27: Kim Reynolds's VP odds
    29:06: Marsha Blackburn's VP odds
    30:05: Swing state VP contenders
    31:26: Segment with Nathan Young begins
    31:59: Taxing bad predictions
    33:46: Shorting AI enthusiasm in political betting markets
    34:47: Irrational pricing in Time Person of the Year markets

    40:12: Hedge funds and AI

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  • Part 1: Washington-based lobbyist and former Rand Paul counsel Brian Darling returns to the show to discuss Trump's VP selection.

    Part 2: Mick Bransfield, an expert on prediction market regulation, returns to discuss reports that PredictIt is pursuing a settlement with the CFTC.

    0:57: Current market odds on Republican VP nominee
    3:44: Pratik introduces Bransfield segment
    4:37: Trump interview on his VP choice with Maria Bartiromo
    8:28: Darling interview begins
    10:00: Why Noem is the front-runner to be Trump's VP
    11:49: Noem's history with Trump

    15:15: Noem's alleged affair with Corey Lewandowski
    16:26: Odds Trump will pick a woman running mate

    17:26: The Republican Party's role in the VP selection

    18:32: Trump's perspective on loyalty

    21:45: Would Noem accept the VP nomination?

    22:06: History of people rejecting offers to be VP
    22:50: What price to pay for Noem yes shares

    24:29: Why Haley is trading so high

    31:42: Elise Stefanik's odds

    33:57: Bransfield segment begins

    39:03: Signs PredictIt will not pursue a constitutional challenge

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  • Dr. Lucas (@Talophex) returns for a deep dive into Donald Trump's health and how it should inform a bet on whether he'll be elected president.

    Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

    0:00: Pratik introduces the episode
    1:17: Discoloration of Trump's hand and Trump's alleged body odor
    4:17: Interview begins
    5:46: Trump's coronary artery disease
    6:32: Trump's physique
    10:12: Trump's psychology
    11:05: Note from Trump's doctor
    13:38: Why hasn't Trump had a serious heart condition?
    15:06: Trump's genetics
    17:46: Is weight protective in old age?
    21:00: Trump's cognitive decline
    25:29: Trump's OCD
    27:00: Trump's purpose in life
    29:48: How Trump's legal issues could impact his health
    35:00: How to trade on Trump's health
    39:52: What to look for to assess Trump's health

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  • While Trump appears to hold a commanding lead heading in the Iowa caucuses, second place remains uncertain.

    Ben Freeman challenges The Winner for the SSG title belt on the question of who will perform better in the Iowa caucuses: Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley.

    Plus, Pratik Chougule explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos.

    0:00: Pratik introduces the Iowa caucuses segment

    1:38: Pratik explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos for Excellence in Political Gambling

    4:15: SSG members' only private briefing on Taiwan elections

    7:36: Segment on Iowa caucuses begins

    8:15: What are SSG title belt challenges

    9:20: Ben Freeman on why DeSantis is underpriced for second place in Iowa

    12:20: The Winner on why DeSantis isn't likely to place second

    13:38: Negotiating the belt challenge

    14:10: Pratik's view on why DeSantis has the edge

    15:30: Haley's feminism

    17:07: Populism and wave politics

    18:14: What is Haley's message?

    28:30: Haley's lack of endorsements

    37:30: Democratic presidential primary

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  • Prediction market enthusiast and effective altruist Nathan Young (@nathanpmyoung) joins the show to discuss the relation of prediction markets and AI. He also discusses Polymarket's market on whether an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August and explains why it's unlikely to happen.

    Timestamps

    0:00: Intro begins

    4:00: Interview with Nathan begins. Nathan explains his full-time work in the forecasting industry

    6:18: AI and effective altruism

    13:25: What exactly is AI and what are its capabilities?

    30:49: Polymarket's AI Math Olympiad Prize market

    Follow us on Twitter @ssgamblers

  • Four Part Episode

    Part 1: Dr. Lucas (@talophex) on Biden's health

    Part 2: The Winner (@thewinner2875) and Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) on whether Vivek Ramaswamy is worth buying as a hedge

    Part 3: Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) on the CFTC's decision to reject Kalshi's election contracts

    Part 4: Nathan Young (@nathanpyoung) on religion and prediction markets

    Timestamps

    5:08: Interview with Lucas begins

    6:39: Biden's cognitive decline

    8:49: Biden's physical health

    10:20: Biden's aneurysms

    13:18: Biden's capacity to run a presidential campaign

    15:19: Biden's risk of vaccine injury

    18:45: How to trade on Biden's health on Polymarket

    20:46: Segment on Ramaswamy begins

    21:46: Ben Freeman on fading the online candidate

    23:22: Segment on CFTC's Kalshi decision begins

    24:21: Commissioner Mersinger's dissent

    25:54: State laws on political betting

    27:40: Why the CFTC is not main the adversary of political betting

    28:14: Legality of the Iowa Electronic Markets

    29:47: Kalshi's tried to find a shortcut

    30:50: Excerpt of Chougule's speech on black markets

    32:22: Segment with Nathan Young begins

    32:37: How religion made Young interested in prediction markets

    33:10: Forecasters were ahead of the curve on COVID

    34:02: Similarities between the rationality and religious communities

    38:05: Religious attitudes toward gambling in the UK

    40:56: America's religious opposition to political betting

    Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.

  • Three-Part Episode

    In Part I, Ben Freeman and SSG Title Belt Champion The Winner review the DeSantis-Newsom debate and discuss whether DeSantis can make a comeback.

    In Part II, PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess offers lessons on what the political betting community can learn from how sports betting became mainstream.

    In Part III, Mick Bransfield provides theories on why Kalshi pressed ahead with election contracts at the CFTC knowing it didn't have the votes.

    Timestamps

    4:30: Interview with Ben Freeman and The Winner begins
    7:49: DeSantis's mannerisms
    12:36: Is DeSantis deferring too much to advisors
    15:03: Missed opportunities in the DeSantis-Newsom debate
    18:42: Market prices on DeSantis and Nikki Haley
    25:13: Trump's legal problems
    27:23: Can Haley get through the Republican primaries?
    30:16: Interview with Friess begins
    34:46: Pratik's view on legalizing political betting at the state level
    37:19: Interview with Bransfield begins
    43:12: Incentives created by Kalshi's investors

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  • Three-part episode:

    (1) Dr. Lucas—the "surgeon general of prediction market Twitter"—joins to discuss Mitch McConnell's health. Why did he "freeze" in public multiple times? Did the Congressional physician cover up his actual condition?

    (2) Rule3O3 discusses how large donors approach their political contributions

    (3) Jonathan Zubkoff (@zubbybadger) sounds the alarm on the opposition of U.S. Senators to political betting

    Timestamps

    0:00: Introduction
    5:01: Interview with Lucas begins
    5:21: How political betting led to Lucas being swatted
    8:07: How Lucas got into political betting
    9:36: Improvements in political betting websites
    10:13: Lucas's medical background
    13:20: Polymarket's market on whether Mitch McConnell will resign by the end of the year
    13:36: McConnell's freezing episodes
    19:58: What is a seizure?
    23:29: Did McConnell have a stroke?
    24:02: Did the Congressional physician mislead the public about McConnell's condition?
    26:41: The state of McConnell's health
    29:59: Medications McConnell might be on right now
    31:18: How the longshot could win on Polymarket
    34:41: Segment with Rule3O3 begins
    37:11: Segment with Jonathan Zubkoff begins

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  • Colombia-based trader Ian Bezek (@irbezek) returns to the show to offer some final thoughts on the close and uncertain presidential race in Argentina.

    1:32: Ian's thoughts on the final debate between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa
    2:10: Ian's advice on Polymarket's margin market
    5:20: Interview begins
    6:06: Massa's backround
    7:43: Massa's political baggage
    8:45: Questions about Massa's alleged drug addiction
    9:56: Market volatility since the eve of the first round of elections
    11:39: Why did polls miss on the first round?
    12:49: Milei's shortcomings
    14:34: Summary of first round results
    15:38: Why so much market volatility?
    18:29: How much of Patricia Bullrich's support will go to Milei?
    19:57: Argentina's economy
    25:41: Milei's extremist statements
    27:54: How foreign investors are seeing the election
    29:19: Massa overperformed the polls
    32:25: Polling
    34:52: Ian's predictions and advice
    35:50: Pratik's argument for buying Massa
    39:18: Stock prices of Milei's former employer
    40:58: Implications of a Milei victory for political betting
    42:27: Recent elections in South America

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  • Eurasia expert Kristofer Harrison makes the case for why the odds of an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan are much higher than the market price on Polymarket.

    3:54: Interview with Harrison begins

    5:06: Do hedge funds use political betting insights?

    7:10: Background on Armenia and Azerbaijan

    7:56: Why there are tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan

    12:15: Russia's role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict

    14:29: Domestic politics in Armenia

    15:18: Evidence that Azerbaijan is serious about invading

    17:44: Why hasn't Azerbaijan already invaded Armenia?

    18:43: Balance of power between Azerbaijan and Armenia

    20:37: Have Russia and/orTurkey greenlighted an invasion?

    22:08: Will the West stop a war?

    24:12: Odds of an invasion

    27:24: Influence of the weather in Nagorno-Karabach

    29:57: How rogue is Aliyev?

    33:43: Religion in Azerbaijan

    35:05: How much does Azerbaijan care about international investment?

    36:55: How keep up with news related to the Azerbaijan-Armenia market

    38:44: Will Putin still be in power by the end of the year?

    Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers

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  • On the eve of the Kentucky governor's election, a new poll by Emerson suggests that the race could be much closer than initially expected.

    SSG Title Belt Champion TheWinner (@thewinner2875) and Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) join the show to make their final predictions.

    Although they generally agree in their analyses, they settle on a side bet and a challenge for the SSG Title Belt.

    3:20: Main segment begins
    4:10: Introduction to Dr. Cruse
    6:51: Emerson polling
    8:20: Current market prices
    12:31: The role of national politics
    14:16: Racial politics
    17:21: SSG TItle Belt Challenge
    23:36: Polling in Kentucky
    24:30: Fundraising
    25:25: Indicators pointing to a Beshear win
    28:30: Limited national attention
    31:10: Kentucky governors races as national bellweathers
    35:36: Pratik summarizes the discussion
    37:15: TheWinner's final margin prediction
    37:58: Potential impact of the war in Israel

    Trade on Polymarket here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-democrat-win-the-kentucky-gubernatorial-election

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  • 3-Part Episode
    — Keendawg returns to discuss why Andy Beshear, Kentucky's Democratic Governor, is favored for re-election, but why lottos on his Republican challenger might be a good bet

    — Pratik reports on new evidence that Kalshi was behind the CFTC's enforcement action against Polymarket

    — MagaVacuum explains how to gain a betting edge while traveling to campaign events

    Timestamps

    4:24: Interview with Keendawg begins

    4:40: Keendawg's role in founding Star Spangled Gamblers

    7:14: Kentucky colonels

    9:42: Who is Andy Beshear and why is he the favorite in the KY governor's race?

    15:29: Who is Daniel Cameron?

    18:20: Counties in Kentucky to watch

    21:35: Why Andy Beshear won in 2019

    22:14: Cameron's appeal

    23:26: Background on KY politics

    25:27: Partisan politics in KY

    26:54: Lexington-Louisville rivalry

    27:42: Davies County

    28:47: Segment begins on Kalshi's role in Polymarket

    30:18: Former CFTC official Maggie Sklar's comment to the CFTC against Kalshi

    34:23: MAGAVacuum's research on communications and political prediction markets

    36:00: How to gain an edge by traveling to campaign events

    Show Notes
    — Sklar's letter to CFTC https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/ViewComment.aspx?id=72703&SearchText=sklar

    Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers
    Follow Pratik Chougule on Twitter: @pjchougule

  • After another review with a 30-day public comment period, the CFTC rejected Kalshi's proposal to offer election contracts.

    Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the outpouring of public comments that led to the CFTC's decision.

    0:00: Introduction begins

    2:14: Kalshi's incentives and how they shape its strategy toward political betting regulation

    3:46: Kalshi's policy on transparency

    5:27: Kalshi's diverging incentives from the political betting community

    7:42: How Pratik's assumptions on political betting regulation differ from those of Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour

    13:03: Interview with Mick begins

    15:18: Background on the latest 30-day comment period

    16:40: Why the CFTC received a flood of comments

    17:46: Were the anti-Kalshi comments AI-generated?

    18:10: Public Citizen

    20:57: Better Markets

    21:55: Letter from Representatives John Sarbanes and Jamie Raskin

    22:55: Center for American Progress

    25:09: Are prediction markets becoming a partisan football?

    31:11: Errors and poor analysis in the anti-Kalshi letters

    33:41: Kalshi's response

    46:40: Why Pratik lost confidence in Kalshi's regulatory approach

    Links:

    Mick Bransfield's website: https://mickbransfield.com/markets/

    Coalition for Political Forecasting: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/

    Coalition for Political Forecasting comment to CFTC: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/coalition-for-political-forecasting-response-to-cftcs-request-for-public-comments-on-questions-related-to-kalshis-self-certified-congressional-control-contracts/

  • After listening to our recent episode about calls in the forecasting community to cancel him, Richard Hanania offered to appear on the show. Richard and Pratik Chougule discuss:

    — Cancel culture in the rationalist community
    — The conservative judiciary and how it could legalize prediction markets
    — The odds of Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump to secure the GOP nomination
    — Balancing the incentives of being a forecaster and a pundit

    3:25: Interview begins
    4:14: Richard's new book The Origins of Woke and his association with Vivek Ramaswamy
    7:00: Richard responds to those in the forecasting community who want to cancel him
    8:12: How cancel culture is changing
    10:13: Manifest Conference
    11:12: Market-based responses to cancel culture
    14:27: GOP nominee odds
    15:56: Ramaswamy's views on prediction markets
    17:50: PredictIt lawsuit against the CFTC
    20:31: Conservative legal movement
    32:20: Reasons why election markets became partisan
    33:01: Political implications of Trump's legal problems
    34:55: Hanania responds to haters and calls for open-mindedness
    36:11: Incentives for political gambling versus punditry
    40:11: Pratik plugs Origins of Woke

  • Ben Freeman and MAGA Vacuum return to the show to discuss their observations from the Iowa State Fair and their predictions on who will win the state's GOP caucuses.

    Timestamps

    3:12: Interview begins
    3:48: What is the Iowa State Fair and why is it significant for the Republican primaries?
    5:31: Trump supporters trolling DeSantis
    6:06: Trump's appearance
    6:28: Ramaswamy rapping
    7:30: DeSantis's prospects
    23:40: Iowa evangelicals
    26:23: DeSantis's ground game
    31:38: Longshot candidates and nonstarters in Iowa
    35:18: Odds of a Trump second place in Iowa
    37:28: Ramaswamy supporters
    38:06: Hatred of Pence
    39:08: Freeman's post-interview notes

  • Rule3O3 and Pratik Chougule discuss whether the political forecasting community should cancel Richard Hanania in light of his edgy writings on race, sex, and other hot-button issues.

    Timestamps:

    0:53: Jonathan Zubkoff wins the CSPI/Salem Center forecasting tournament
    2:58: Manifest conference
    5:04: Crime markets on Manifold
    6:58: Open invitation to Hanania to appear on SSG
    10:23: Who is Hanania?
    15:22: Why a cancel attempt on Hanania
    19:09: Should Hanania be canceled from the forecasting community?
    23:24: Peter Wildeford's criticism
    29:03: Aaron Bergman's warning on ideological policing

    32:22: Political betting as a solution to political polarization

    33:52: OutsideContextProblem's criticism of Hanania as a troll
    36:46: Rob Henderson's defense of Hanania
    38:27: Oliver Habryka's proposed standard for canceling Hanania
    40:45: Why Aella isn't canceled
    43:47: David Manheim's critique on Hanania making people feel unwelcome
    45:05: Ezra Brody's question on engaging "gross people"

  • Intro: Pratik Chougule

    Part I: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the possibility of a government shutdown and how it will likely be averted

    Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the new judge, David Ezra, who will be overseeing the PredictIt case at the district court

    Part III: Pratik responds to mailbag from Domer on overconfident marks in political betting markets and argues for recruiting experts to participate in prediction markets

    1:45: Pratik promotes the Manifest Conference https://www.manifestconference.net/

    5:46: Zubby on the possibility of a government shutdown

    30:02: Mick Bransfield on David Ezra, the new judge who will oversee the PredictIt case at the district court

    38:47: Pratik responds to mailbag from Domer on arrogance in political betting and argues for recruiting experts into political prediction markets

  • Intro: Pratik's thoughts on the first Republican presidential debate

    Part I: Pratik interviews PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess about his reporting on why political prediction markets missed the 2022 Senate races, and why the policymaking community is skeptical of political gambling.

    Part II: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the circumstances in which Trump will attend a Republican debate

    Timestamps


    0:12: Pratik introduces the interview with Steve Friess

    1:37: Pratik introduces segment with Zubby Badger on whether Trump will attend a debate

    2:59: Political betting insights from the first Republican debate

    10:32: Friess's interest in political gambling

    13:55: Why betting markets missed the 2022 midterms

    21:05: Policymaking community's skepticism of political gambling

    39:17: Factors in whether Trump will show up to a Republican debate

  • Intro: Pratik Chougule discusses a recent Manifold meetup he attended and the importance of attending in-person forecasting community events

    Part 1: Rule3O3 joins the show for the first time to discuss epistemic humility in political betting and how to realize the promise of political prediction markets.

    Part 2: Ben Freeman and Pratik Chougule continue their conversation on 2024 Republican presidential primary. Ben and Pratik discuss whether a fractured Republican field will save Trump again or whether the electorate will rally around an alternative.

    Timestamps
    0:00: Pratik introduces the two segments
    1:12: Manifold and the importance of in-person forecasting events
    6:34: Rule3O3 intro
    8:26: Political prediction market efficiency
    10:29: Epistemic humility in prediction markets
    13:26: Technical analysis
    16:20: Fun in prediction markets
    18:43: Ben Freeman on whether a fractured Republican field will save Trump again or whether the electorate will rally around DeSantis
    20:43: High-profile Republican endorsements
    23:19: Attacks on Trump
    27:39: Trump's financial problems
    29:41: Will Republicans coalesce around an alternative
    33:41: DeSantis's strengths and weaknesses
    39:54: Ben's picks on PredictIt
    41:57: Pence lottos