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A last-minute breakthrough enabled the Western Balkans to sign key regional cooperation agreements at the Berlin Process Summit on October 14 of 2024. This was thanks to the skilled diplomacy of Manuel Sarrazin, Germany’s Special Representative for the Western Balkans, and the political will of regional leaders.
In a crucial compromise, Kosovo agreed to lift its ban on Serbian imports at the Merdare crossing. As part of the deal, Germany and its allies pledged to provide advanced scanners to enhance security at Kosovo-Serbia borders, a necessary step that has yet to be implemented.
Ilva Tare, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, sat down with Manuel Sarrazin to discuss the complexities of these negotiations. Sarrazin shares how he played a pivotal role in persuading Kosovo’s Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, to lift the ban—a move vital to unblocking CEFTA (Central European Free Trade Agreement) and advancing the Berlin Process.
Sarrazin also speaks about the security concerns that arose, particularly in light of the recent Banjska incident, and how Germany’s offer to provide scanners is part of a broader effort to bolster both trade and border security.
While the situation at the border remains fragile, with ongoing security concerns, Sarrazin emphasizes that the political capital Germany has invested, alongside the EU and the US, is creating momentum for deeper regional cooperation and economic progress.
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As the Berlin Process celebrates its 10th anniversary in 2024, over 115 organizations gathered at the Civil Society and Think Tank Forum on October 9-11 this year to raise alarms about shrinking civic spaces, threats to democracy, and rising intimidation across the Western Balkans.
In this insightful episode of #BalkansDebrief, Ilva Tare, Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, speaks with Simonida Kacarska, Director of the European Policy Institute, and Klodjan Seferaj, Program Manager at the Open Society Foundation Western Balkans, about the forum’s key recommendations and the uncertain future of the Berlin Process writ large—including where the next summit will take place and the adjustments needed to maintain its relevance.
What are the biggest challenges for civil society in the Western Balkans today? How are governments responding to concerns about the rule of law, democracy, and civic spaces? And what can be done to hold them more accountable?
Watch now for expert analysis on the future of the Berlin Process. #BalkansDebrief #BerlinProcess #WesternBalkans #CivilSociety #Democracy
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Cyber-attacks are on the rise in the Western Balkans, with 1.2 million personal records exposed to data breaches and a 200% surge in ransomware attacks over the past two years. Businesses across the region have paid millions of euros to recover compromised data, and 75% of companies report facing phishing attacks. Cyber-actors are exploiting internal ethnic tensions to target reconciliation efforts, while disinformation campaigns undermine democracy, destabilize institutions, and disrupt daily life.
In this episode of #BalkansDebrief, Ilva Tare, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, sits down with Ramadan Ilazi from the Kosovar Centre for Security Studies and Filip Stojanovski, Director of Partnerships at Metamorphosis in North Macedonia. Together, they delve into the cybersecurity vulnerabilities threatening the region’s political and economic stability, examining the implications for critical infrastructure, businesses, and citizens.
The discussion tackles key questions, including how cyberattacks are being used to advance political agendas, the impact of emerging technologies like AI and the Internet of Things, and the gaps in regional cooperation. They also explore how the Western Balkans can strengthen its integration into the EU’s cybersecurity framework, including the role of ENISA in supporting regional efforts.
As cyber threats continue to evolve, this conversation highlights the urgent need for a resilient digital future in the Western Balkans, from workforce development to bolstering regional collaboration. Tune in for expert insights on navigating one of the region's most critical challenges.
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Following the significant power shift in North Macedonia’s May 8 elections, the VRMO-DPMNE party, led by Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski faces a complex landscape.
Six renowned experts have crafted a strategy brief for the Atlantic Council, outlining crucial recommendations for the new government, including democratic reforms, the fight against corruption, economic revitalization, EU integration, and addressing rising ethnic tensions.
Resident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare engages in a conversation with three of the policy brief’s authors to discuss the country’s reform agenda.
Key questions include: What economic and political implications arise from the loan exceeding half a billion loan from Hungary? What strategies does the government have to address the fiscal deficit?
Why is there little optimism for immediate Constitutional changes and how could this impact the center-right government?
How will the citizens’ frustration with the stalled EU integration process be addressed to progress with EU accession?
What are the potential consequences for the country’s democracy amidst the Ethno-nationalist narrative following recent ethnic tensions?
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The European Union's recent memorandum of understanding with Serbia on raw materials has sparked debate across the Balkans. Signed during German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit, the MoU revives a controversial lithium mining project, drawing opposition from many Serbians.
In this episode, Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare is joined by Ivan Vejvoda, Permanent Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences and Head of Europe’s Futures Project in Vienna, to dissect this complex issue.
Does Mr. Vejvoda share the criticism that the EU and Germany are prioritizing lithium access in Serbia over essential democratic principles like environmental protection, rule of law, and independent media?
With concerns about weak independent institutions and a critical public sphere in Serbia, can the country uphold high environmental and social standards?
How can the EU ensure that such agreements maintain rigorous environmental and social principles?
Could this agreement reduce Serbia’s reliance on China, and what might be the broader geopolitical implications?
Join #BalkansDebrief for an in-depth discussion on the potential impacts of this deal and the geoeconomic and geopolitical interests of the EU in the Western Balkans. -
Why should Europe focus on the Balkans? What are the potential opportunities and challenges for EU enlargement and the Growth Plan for this region?
Join Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare in this episode of #BalkansDebrief as she interviews Enrico Letta, former Prime Minister of Italy and current President of the Institut Jacques Delors. With his extensive experience in European Union affairs and his recent influential report on the future of the Single Market, Mr. Letta provides deep insights into the necessary reforms for successful EU enlargement.
In this episode, Mr. Letta discusses his advocacy for the "Regatta Method" over the "Big Bang" approach for EU enlargement, emphasizing the importance of allowing each country to join when ready rather than waiting for the slowest in the region. He also elaborates on his proposed blueprint for EU enlargement success, which includes critical reforms such as on veto rules and the creation of a “solidarity enlargement facility.”
Discover the future of the EU and the vital steps needed to integrate the six Western Balkan countries into the new Single Market, as envisioned by Enrico Letta, a staunch advocate of enlargement in the Western Balkans.
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For decades, the United States and Serbia have engaged in a delicate diplomatic dance. Recently, Serbian think tank representatives visited Washington, DC, for critical talks with US policymakers.
Their agenda? Navigating the complexities of Serbia's democratic health and evolving foreign policy, including unpacking its shifting alliances with Russia and China, and how these relationships impact Serbia's aspirations for membership in the European Union (EU).
Ilva Tare is joined in this episode of #BalkansDebrief by Igor Bandovic, Director of the Belgrade Center for Security Policy, and Nikola Burazer, Program Director at the Center for Contemporary Politics, to discuss their main concerns regarding Serbia’s state of democracy, nationalistic rhetoric, and dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina.
What are the top foreign policy and security challenges facing Serbia currently?
The All-Serb Assembly reignited nationalist sentiment across the region. How significant is this, and what potential consequences could it have for Serbia and regional stability?
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Football and politics are deeply intertwined, especially in the Balkans, where the mix can be volatile. At the UEFA Euro Cup in Germany this year, nationalistic chants and provocative acts highlighted the ongoing tensions among Balkan nations. Serbia, Albania, and Croatia clashed not only in the stadiums but also in a display of ethnic rivalries.
In this episode Ilva Tare is joined by Florian Bieber, a renowned historian and professor at the University of Graz, specializing in inter-ethnic relations and nationalism in the Balkans. They discuss the complex role of football as both a catalyst for rivalry and a potential bridge for unity in the region.
How does football act as a double-edged sword, fueling both rivalry and potentially fostering unity in the Balkans?
How do nationalistic rhetoric and historical narratives shape the current tensions?
Can the younger generations break the cycle of resentment, or are they destined to inherit past grievances? What role can they play in reconciliation?
Given the political landscape, is peace in the Balkans a realistic goal? What concrete steps can governments and the international community take to foster stability?
Join #BalkansDebrief for a thought-provoking discussion on the dynamics of football, nationalism, and the quest for peace and reconciliation in the Balkans. -
The recent International Republican Institute (IRI) poll on the Western Balkans has revealed some concerning trends for the region's aspirations of joining the European Union. While the war in Ukraine presented a potential opening, the path to membership appears to be facing significant challenges.
Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare is joined by Amila Karačić, Director of Programs of IRI in Bosnia and Herzegovina, who also oversees the Western Balkans regional programs, to discuss the main takeaways of the poll conducted in the six countries.
Is there evidence that pro-Russian narratives are gaining traction outside of Serbia?
Why are citizens in the Western Balkans less likely to push for political change, despite wanting EU integration? How deep is their distrust in politicians and institutions?
Why does it seem that citizens prefer strongman leaders despite their potential to undermine the path towards the EU?
Is nationalism a concern in the region? In which country is it most pronounced?
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The Western Balkans stand at a pivotal moment. Regional stability, security, and prosperity require a more robust US engagement. EU accession remains the goal but simmering ethnic tensions and resurgent nationalism demand a comprehensive US strategy that includes specific and actionable commitments.
In the light of Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine that has shaken European security foundations, how can the US enhance its collaboration with the EU to develop a unified approach regarding the future of the Western Balkans?
Ilva Tare, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, discusses with outgoing US Deputy Assistant Secretary and Special Representative for the Western Balkans Gabriel Escobar, at the end of his term, the most pressing issues for the region’s EU prospects, the challenges with corruption and economic growth, and the main concerns for increased tension and risks for stability.
Tare asks DAS Escobar if prioritizing the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities on the normalization dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia was the most effective strategy, and what is the path forward on this issue?
Is the US considering alternative approaches towards Serbia to achieve progress on EU alignment, especially after the composition of the new government?
Can the US prevent a fracturing of the fragile peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina?
How concerning is Russian influence in the Western Balkans? Specific questions on Montenegro, North Macedonia and Albania will also be covered in this #BalkansDebrief episode.
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As the May 8th runoff looms, the people of North Macedonia are gearing up for a pivotal parliamentary election that will chart the nation’s course towards European Union integration, alongside the decisive second round of the presidential election. The outcomes are anticipated to signal a shift in the electorate’s mood, reflecting their discontent with the stalled EU accession progress since the 2019 name change and the tensions with Bulgaria over demanded constitutional amendments.
Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare and political analyst Aleksej Demjanski, editor of the MacedonianMatters newsletter, discuss in this episode of #BalkanasDebrief the significance of these elections for North Macedonia’s European aspirations.
They will explore what Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova’s lead in the presidential election’s first round, securing 40.1% of the votes, reveals about the public’s appetite for change. The conversation will also cover the core messages and strategies of the incumbent SDSM party’s campaign, as well as the resonating themes of the opposition VMRO-DPMNE’s efforts, and how they align with the citizen’s concerns.
Furthermore, the conversation will cover the potential post-election alliances. Could we witness a coalition between VMRO-DPMNE, ZNAM, and VLEN, or will the SDSM and DUI maintain their coalition? How will the political landscape and impact North Macedonia’s EU path?
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The Western Balkans remain a security concern, particularly Bosnia and Herzegovina. Recently, France has deployed a battalion as part of the Strategic Reserve Force to assist the EUFOR mission and exercise a level of deterrence in Bosnia and Kosovo, two countries with security issues, where France wants to see progress.
Ilva Tare, a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Europe Center, discusses regional security issues with Alexandre Vulic, Deputy Director General for Strategic Affairs, International Security, and Arms Control at the French Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs.
Why does France consider the situation in Bosnia as stable yet fragile? What are the main concerns that threaten security in the region? How do cybersecurity, disinformation, and false narratives affect the Western Balkans? And how can France counter Russia’s influence, which is exercised via proxies and nationalist forces?
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North Macedonia, a small nation of 2 million, in the Western Balkans, gained international attention in 2019, when it agreed to the seemingly impossible: changing its name in exchange for EU negotiations and NATO membership. While NATO membership was secured, EU accession talks have stalled for years. This is largely due to Bulgaria’s demand for Constitutional changes recognizing a Bulgarian minority.
For North Macedonians, Sofia’s veto was a bitter pill to swallow resulting in public support for the EU dropping sharply, according to surveys. On May 8, the country faces critical elections that will decide its future in relation to the EU.
Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare sits down will Marko Troshanovski, President of the Institute for Democracy, to discuss the importance of the elections and the key issues debated by the main two opposing political camps.
Can the North Macedonian public regain trust in the EU accession process? What do the surveys suggest about the winner of the political elections? How will a potential victory by the center-right VRMNO-DPMNE opposition affect the country’s foreign policy and its EU path? What role will Albanian parties play in the winning coalition? How should the new government address the problem of corruption?
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Kosovo’s recent ban on the dinar, aimed by the Kurti government at curbing illegal cash flow, has sparked tensions with US and the European partners and raised concerns about its impact on the Kosovo Serb community, on the normalization dialogue with Serbia, and Kosovo’s wider relationship with its Western allies.
Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare discusses the reasons behind this controversial move with two esteemed guests; Arian Zeka, Executive Director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Kosovo and Dragisa Mijacic Executive Director of InTER Institute for Territorial Economic Development.
Key questions:
Why did the Central Bank of Kosovo announce the euro-only policy on February 1st?
How does this decision impact the daily lives of Kosovo’s Serb community considering pensions and welfare concerns raised by the local NGO’s?
Should Westerns partners have been consulted by the Kosovo government before the ban?
What are the potential implications for US-Kosovo relations after the call to reverse the ban?
Can the Association of the Serb Majority Municipalities address the issue of financing and dinar use, as some suggest?
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2024 has already plunged the Western Balkans into a maelstrom of complex developments. Serbia's post-election protests, the precarious Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, and the Kremlin-aligned Dodik's paramilitary parade all raise critical questions about the region's stability.
In this episode of #BalkansDebrief, Ilva Tare, Europe Center's Nonresident Senior Fellow, welcomes Damir Kapidžić, Political Scientist and Associate Professor at the University of Sarajevo, and a Weatherhead Visiting Scholar at Harvard. Together, they dissect the critical crossroads facing the region as U.S. and EU elections loom on the horizon.
Key questions: How will the new U.S. and EU administrations engage with the Balkans? Can the region still harbor hopes for progress towards EU membership? And how can the newly proposed EU Growth Plan translate from promises into tangible advancements, paving the way towards economic integration?
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As 2024 dawns, the Balkans cling to a fragile dream: EU membership. But the region and the Union itself are beset by internal tremors. From simmering protests in Serbia to looming threats and economic storms, the region braces for a year of turbulence. Can they emerge resilient from this crucible?
Ilva Tare, Nonresident Senior Fellow, delves into these questions and more with Ivan Krastev, chair of the Center for Liberal Strategies and Permanent Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna.
Krastev casts a cautious eye on EU reform prospects, outlining potential timelines and highlighting the factors that could determine success or failure. He also analyzes how the November US elections might reshape Washington's engagement with the Balkans, with implications for the region as a whole and, in particular, the fragile Kosovo-Serbia dialogue.
From unexpected twists in the electoral landscape to the ever-shifting sands of regional politics, this year promises to be a rollercoaster. Tune in to hear Krastev’s insights into the key forces at play and why the Balkans and not only, are poised for a turbulent year.
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Serbia witnessed a tumultuous end to 2023, with protests erupting in Belgrade following the December 17th elections. Thousands demand the annulment, alleging President Vučić's Progressive Party fabricated results through cross-border voting. Despite claiming a "cleanest and most honest" victory, international observers have condemned widespread fraud and manipulation. The West, has been criticized for turning a blind eye to Vučić's actions. But with renewed protests and whispers of regional conflict, will the honeymoon end?
Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare speaks to Rasa Nedeljkov, Program Director of the Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability which has monitored closely the election with particular focus on the capital, Belgrade.
International observers have condemned the irregularities, while Brussels and Washington demand a response from the government. What role can the international community play in mitigating these tensions? How should the West engage moving forward? Were the alleged manipulations significant enough to alter the outcome? If a rerun were to occur, particularly in Belgrade, could a different outcome be anticipated?
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A sigh of relief, perhaps even cautious optimism, has swept across the Western Balkans. The EU Council's decision to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, alongside a conditional green light for Bosnia and Herzegovina, signals renewed engagement with the region. But is this truly a new dawn, or just a flicker of light in persistent uncertainty?
The stakes are high, with implications for political stability, economic growth, and ultimately, the future of the Western Balkan six countries.
Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare speaks to Atlantic Council Europe Center's Balkans Forward team: Maja Piscevic, Amb. Cameron Munter, and Valbona Zeneli.
Will the renewed EU enlargement commitment mark the long-awaited entry point for the Balkans onto the European stage? While the Council's decision marks a step forward, is it enough to sustain the momentum for Western Balkan accession, or are there still significant hurdles to overcome before reaching the European stage? Will the EU reform the enlargement process, and how possible is it to achieve the ambitious goal of doubling the region’s economic growth in a decade?
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In a groundbreaking agreement, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her Albanian counterpart Edi Rama have agreed to establish a migrant processing center in Albania. The center will be funded by Italy and operate under Italian jurisdiction.
This unprecedented move, with funding from Italy and operation under Italian jurisdiction, has sparked a heated debate, raising concerns about its adherence to international and European legal frameworks governing asylum rights. While the European Commission has maintained that the deal does not contravene EU asylum law, human rights groups remain wary of its potential impact on the rights of migrants.
Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare speaks to Nathalie Tocci, Director of the Instituto Affari Internazionali in Italy, about the political and social implications of this agreement.
Will this deal set a precedent for other EU member states to outsource their asylum processing to non-EU countries or aspiring EU candidates? What are the primary concerns surrounding the effective implementation of the agreement? And could this approach serve as a potential solution to the escalating migration flows reaching EU shores?
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Kosovo’s government’s accepted the US-backed EU draft for the Association of Serbian Municipalities (ASM), a positive move towards normalizing Serbia-Kosovo relations. However, the questions remain on how to ensure the ASM’s implementation.
Ambassador of the United States to the Republic of Kosovo, Jeffrey M. Hovenier says it is crucial to move forward with the ASM and to not get caught up in formalities. This stance was echoed by Prime Minister Albin Kurti regarding Serbia’s refusal to sign the EU’s draft agreement.
What institutions will be created as part of the ASM? What are the possible consequences for Kosovo and Serbia if there is a further delay in the ASM’s implementation? How will US-Kosovo relationship look in the case of a successful normalization dialogue? - Vis mere
