Episoder
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Today Dan Barrett from Adwords Nerds welcomes Jason to his show. Jason shares valuable insights about market cycles, the economy, the real estate market, and predictions for the future. He emphasized the importance of understanding market dynamics and making decisions based on data rather than emotions. They discuss the impact of interest rates on the housing market, highlighting the current inventory shortage and the influence of historically low mortgage rates on homeowner behavior. Jason stresses the importance of asking "compared to what?" to gain a clearer perspective on economic conditions. He also debunks the idea of an imminent real estate crash, pointing out that the constrained inventory and favorable mortgage terms for existing homeowners create a stable market. Overall, Jason provided a comprehensive analysis of the real estate landscape, offering valuable advice for investors navigating today's complex market.
https://adwordsnerds.com/
#RealEstate #MarketCycles #EconomicInsights #InterestRates #PropertyInvestment #HousingMarket #MortgageRates #InvestorAdvice #MarketAnalysis #RealEstateTrends #EconomicPerspective #Homeownership #RealEstateInvesting #JasonHartman #AdwordsNerds
Key Takeaways:
0:48 Data thinking- reacting to one's environment
5:22 Forecasting and mortgage rate projections
9:19 Very low housing inventory
14:24 The new buyer entering the market
16:21 Hindsight and always overpaying
19:40 Scarcity
21:51 Inflation
https://www.jasonhartman.com/properties/
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Jason and Sean O'Toole of PropertyRadar.com discuss the current state of the real estate market, focusing on inventory trends, the impact of high interest rates, and the value of real estate over price. They also explore the potential for price drops, the influence of technological advancements on prices, and the challenges of rising housing costs. Lastly, they examine the activities of wholesalers in the real estate market and the ongoing issue of foreclosures, with Sean providing insights on his company's data tracking system and the shift in the market due to a scarcity of available properties. They also discuss the impact of housing inventory levels and credit card debt, noting the importance of adjusting these figures for population growth. O'Toole highlights California's housing crisis, where strict building regulations and NIMBYism hinder affordable housing development. He points out that while modern homes are sturdier, the costs have skyrocketed, making new affordable housing virtually "illegal." O'Toole also explains the shift in the real estate market, where wholesalers are increasingly selling properties directly to consumers rather than investors due to inventory shortages, affecting traditional investment strategies. https://www.propertyradar.com/
#RealEstate #HousingMarket #InventoryCrisis #HomePrices #AffordableHousing #HousingShortage #BuildingCodes #CaliforniaHousing #ForeclosureCrisis #RealEstateInvestment #HomeConstruction #HousingPolicy #MarketTrends #RealEstateTips #InvestmentProperties
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Manglende episoder?
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Jason welcomes Mike Simonsen of Altos Research. Mike discusses real estate trends, noting increased inventory leading to higher sales. Despite higher mortgage rates, demand persists, with 2.8 to 7.7 million more buyers qualifying as rates drop. This surge could strain inventory, creating a competitive market. Simonsen emphasizes the need for sustained higher rates to restore pre-pandemic inventory levels. Jason Hartman underscores the market's importance for the broader economy, highlighting the stimulus from home purchases. Both foresee continued demand, especially if rates decrease, but caution about potential supply shortages amid heightened buyer interest.
https://www.altosresearch.com/
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Jason and Paul Moore delve into the current state of commercial real estate, focusing on multifamily, office, RV and mobile home markets. They discuss the rise of rescue capital, which assists struggling deals, particularly in multifamily, where many properties are overpriced. They explore how office markets may never fully recover due to remote work trends and pandemic-induced lifestyle changes. They also touch on the impact of struggling office portfolios on banks, revealing a potential contagion effect. Overall, they suggest a nuanced understanding of the commercial real estate landscape is crucial amidst ongoing market shifts.
#RemoteWorkRevolution #OfficeMarketTrends #PostPandemicWorkplace #CommercialRealEstateInsights #RemoteWorkImpact #IndustryAnalysis #OfficeSpaceInvesting #RealEstateOpportunities #AdaptToChange #FutureOfWork #OfficeMarketEvolution #WorkplaceTrends #OfficeRealEstate #EconomicDynamics #MarketAnalysis
Key Takeaways:
0:56 The state of "commercial real estate"
4:42 Self storage
6:35 Multifamily
9:30 Rescue capital and pref equity
13:54 Office space and RV parks
21:02 RV parks and AirBnB https://rvshare.com/ https://www.outdoorsy.com/
27:40 Mobile home parks
https://www.wellingscapital.com/
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https://www.PandemicInvesting.com -
Jason and his investment counselor Carrie address a range of investment strategies and market trends, providing insights into the benefits and drawbacks of various options, such as home warranties, short-term and long-term rentals, and cryptocurrencies. They also emphasized the advantages of residential properties over commercial ones and recommended a hybrid self-management plan for property owners. Furthermore, they introduced the resources available to Empowered Investor Pro members, including access to past Zoom Meetings and a community software. The pair also discussed potential issues with triple net leases and advised clients to seek professional advice.
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Jason and Amanda, a certified public accountant and author, discussed the potential negative impact of the 2024 budget proposal on real estate investors, the benefits of cost segregation for tax reduction, and the advantages of being a real estate professional. They also highlighted the importance of tax planning, the depreciation schedule for breast implants, and the potential for cost segregation. Lastly, they cautioned against tax misconceptions and encouraged listeners to consult with their CPAs for maximum tax benefits.
https://www.jasonhartman.com/costseg/
https://www.keystonecpa.com/
#RealEstateTaxSavings #CostSegregationHack #AccelerateDepreciation #RentalPropertyTaxTip #TaxProTip #RealEstateInvesting #TaxSavings #MortgageFree #LinearMarkets #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialAdvice #WealthBuilding #PropertyOwnership #MarketAnalysis #EconomicInsights #AssetAllocation #smartinvesting
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Jason welcomes real estate analyst Rick Sharga. Rick discusses the housing market and economic trends. Despite concerns of a crash, he suggests a slow period with modest price increases rather than a downturn. He dismisses crash predictions, highlighting historical data showing home prices generally rise during recessions. Sharga addresses factors like consumer spending, job growth, inflation, and Fed policies influencing mortgage rates. He acknowledges the possibility of a mild recession due to Fed actions but emphasizes it may not significantly impact real estate if inventory remains low and distressed sellers are scarce.
Rick also dives into the NAR lawsuit and the current state of the housing market, highlighting mortgage rates near 20-year highs affecting purchase loan applications and pending home sales due to decreased affordability. He anticipates gradual mortgage rate declines attracting more buyers than sellers, likely resulting in increased competition and rising prices. Existing home sales show a 6.5% year-over-year price increase, while new home prices have decreased by 15% from peak levels. Investor purchases remain robust, primarily driven by individual investors rather than institutions. Flipping activity has declined due to pricing challenges, but gross profits are improving, indicating a potential resurgence.
#RickSharga #RealEstateTrends #HousingMarket #HomeSales #MortgageRates #NARLawsuit #AffordabilityCrisis #MarketAnalysis #FoxBusinessInsights
https://cjpatrick.com/
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For today’s 10th episode, Jason welcomes Efren Delgado, a former FBI agent and author of “The Opposite is True,” as he discusses counter-intuitive psychology and his experiences in law enforcement. He shares insights into the motivations of criminals, emphasizing their underlying insecurities. Delgado advises trusting instincts, analyzing situations dispassionately, and embracing humility to counteract corrupting power dynamics. He critiques societal aversion to risk-taking and champions self-improvement, contrasting successful individuals’ altruism with the dependency perpetuated by governmental systems. Delgado’s perspective challenges conventional thinking and encourages proactive, thoughtful engagement with life’s challenges.
https://efrendelgado.com/
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Discover the fascinating history behind the influential Laffer curve with the renowned economist #ArthurLaffer. This curve played a pivotal role in the Reagan revolution, transforming global economics. Dive into the concept that excess taxation can hinder government revenue, unraveling the counterintuitive nature of economics.
Join the Empowered Investor Cruise for exclusive insights from experts and gain strategies for wealth building. Don't miss the chance to explore this captivating journey and register at https://empoweredinvestorlive.com/
And today's conversation is between Jason and Arthur Laffer which covers a range of topics related to taxation and economics. They begin by discussing Arthur's Laffer curve concept, which explores the relationship between tax rates and tax revenues. They also examine the impact of tax policies on different groups in society and the economy. The discussion then shifted to the effects of tax policies on property markets, using California's Prop 13 as an example. Finally, they discuss the political career of former President Reagan, highlighting his leadership style and adaptability.
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Jason welcomes Mike Maloney. He talks about his book "The Great Gold and Silver Rush of the 20th Century," and presents a chart showing the price of a can of Campbell's soup under the gold standard from 1895 to 2025. Jason also introduced the Hartman Comparison Index and the concept of pricing items in commodities. Mike and Jason discuss the unrealized gains and losses on investment securities, the current state of the stock market, the history of financing and real estate, the concept of hedonic adjustment used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the cycle of long-term interest rates, corporate bankruptcies, and the economic situation. They also discussed the use of gold as a safe haven asset and the potential for an economic collapse.
https://ggsr21.com/
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Jason interviews Michael Zuber, author of ‘One Rental at a Time’, about the real estate financial market. They discuss Michael’s philosophy of incremental progress in real estate investing and his recent move from California to Las Vegas. Michael emphasized data-driven decisions and presented a ’53 year spreadsheet’ to track real estate market data since 1970. They also discuss the impact of interest rates on the real estate market and made adjustments to a spreadsheet. Towards the end, they discuss the home price appreciation rate, the effect of leverage and inflation rates, and the future of the housing market.
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Jason welcomes Joshua Simon, founder of Simon Commercial Real Estate, as they discuss the state of commercial real estate. Josh highlights the strength of retail, especially in open-air strip centers and grocery-anchored spaces. Simon emphasized the retail renaissance, citing low vacancy rates and increased demand. Industrial properties faced challenges due to overbuilding, particularly in larger formats. Simon recommended investing in debt instruments or high-yielding retail assets, focusing on quick-service restaurants with strong operators and understanding lease structures. He also noted the value in acquiring vacant spaces from struggling tenants due to the scarcity of real estate.
https://SimonCRE.com/
#CommercialRealEstate #RetailRenaissance #IndustrialProperty #InvestmentStrategy
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Jason talks about the importance of understanding the relationship between household real estate value, mortgage debt, and GDP. The presented chart indicates increased equity and decreased mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP, highlighting a more stable housing market. He touches on the benefits of leveraging properties and he analyzes a chart on median sold prices based on bedroom count, revealing significant appreciation in lower-priced properties.
Jason welcomes Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, as they discuss the current state of the real estate market. Despite concerns about rising interest rates, Kiefer highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy, emphasizing the stability of the housing market throughout 2023. While acknowledging a potential slowdown in consumer spending due to higher rates, Kiefer pointed out that the housing market has seen low transaction volumes and reduced refinance activity, impacting affordability. He also discussed the unique situation of homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates, estimating the value of their locked-in rates at around $55,000 per borrower. Kiefer predicted a gradual thawing of the market as consumers adapt to the new interest rate environment. He also underscored the importance of considering broader economic factors and demographic trends in understanding the housing market's dynamics.
#RealEstate #HousingMarket #EconomicOutlook #Millennials #HousingMarket #RealEstate #EconomicAnalysis
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Jason welcomes Selma Hepp, the Chief Economist of Core Logic. They discuss the challenging state of the real estate market and noted that the market was facing issues due to rising mortgage rates, which led to a decline in transactions and mortgage refinances. Additionally, she highlighted that existing homeowners were benefiting from this situation due to their low mortgage rates and increasing equity. Selma also pointed out that the volume of home sales was down by 18% last year and was expected to decline by a similar amount this year, while mortgage origins were likely to be down by 30-35%. She also mentioned that the inventory of available homes for sale was at its lowest level historically, a quarter of where it was before the great recession. Despite this challenging market, Selma didn’t expect much change until the spring of next year.
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Michael Zuber talks to Jason about the housing market and the potential for a housing crash. Jason provides insights into why a housing crash hasn’t occurred so far, emphasizing the need for millions of distressed sellers as a key ingredient for a crash. He also mentions that people who predict crashes often lack a comprehensive understanding of economic cycles and are influenced by past traumatic events like the 2007-2008 housing crash.
Additionally, the conversation touches on unemployment and its potential impact on the housing market, with Jason arguing that banks are more likely to work with homeowners than rush to foreclose, especially if they have substantial equity in their properties. The discussion also briefly mentions the role of technology companies in the economy and the concept of leveraging in real estate.
Overall, the conversation focuses on the factors affecting the housing market’s stability and the likelihood of a housing crash, with a critical view of those who sensationalize such predictions for personal gain.
#HousingTrends #Economy #HousingMarket #EconomicCycles
Key Takeaways:
1:29 Packaged Commodities Investments are doing very well
3:00 Why the housing market hasn’t crashed just yet
5:56 The ONE ingredient one MUST have for a housing crash and profiles of a Crash bro
8:21 Don’t be lazy; study more than one recession
10:16 Very low inventory plus unemployment and it’s insurance
15:45 Median monthly mortgage payment & number of mortgages by interest rate and foreclosure timelines
19:39 Altos Research inventory numbers
23:38 Drop in activity- not north of 6M homes for a decade
25:58 The FED looks like it’s forcing a recession
32:43 A crystal ball on rate cuts and book recommendation
35:49 Jobs growth and some thoughts on the future of the economy
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Today Jason welcomes Sara, one of his investment counselors to the show as they cover several financial and real estate topics. They address challenges faced by self-employed individuals in obtaining mortgages due to low reported income and offer insights into strategies like inflation-induced debt destruction. They also touch on interest rates, rental market saturation, and the advantages of joining the Empowered Investor Pro community, which provides valuable insights and networking opportunities for investors.
#RealEstate #Investment #Mortgages #Inflation #InterestRates #EmpoweredInvestorPro
Key Takeaways:
Q & A with Investment counselor Sara
1:26 Visit JasonHartman.com/Ask for your questions
2:26 Self-employed financing
7:27 Protecting your cash as you save for the next property
11:41 Growing out of low quality houses into better ones
14:37 It’s a dynamic market and are subject to change
15:33 Interest rates
16:58 Rental Saturation
18:17 Empowered Investor Pro and upcoming LIVE virtual events; stay tuned for details
22:09 Why mass inflation is still a threat to rich nations
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In this episode, Jason features Robert Helms of the Real Estate Guys. He also discussed "generational investing" i.e. the possibility of children investing in real estate and the importance of not trying to time the market. Jason then moves on to discuss the impact of declining interest rates on the housing market, projecting that a drop to 5.5% could allow an additional 7.7 million people to afford a home loan. He highlights the benefits of owning a home and promoted https://www.baselane.com/jason, a banking platform designed for landlords.
Then Jason welcomes Robert Helms as they discuss the real estate market's dynamics, including their merged mastermind groups forming The Collective Inner Circle. They delve into the current state of the market, highlighting constrained inventory and varying opinions on interest rates. Helms suggests a potential softening but cautions against waiting for ultra-low rates. The conversation explores the challenges of market timing and emphasizes understanding the asset's long-term value. Jason predicts a lingering housing shortage, emphasizing the lock-in effect with existing mortgage rates below new rates. They discuss frozen market effects, economic stimulus, and the potential impact on real estate dynamics.
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Jason welcomes Stephen M.R. Covey as they discuss his book "The Speed of Trust." In business, cultivating trust is key for successful deals and relationships. The principle of "win-win or no deal" emphasizes fair collaboration, where both parties benefit. Trust fosters enduring relationships, enabling faster, more efficient cooperation. Smart trust involves assessing situations, clarifying expectations, and ensuring accountability. While contracts are necessary, they can't substitute genuine trust. Transparent, open, and fair dealings build reputations that lead to repeat and referral business. Long-term success lies in creating a high-trust culture, where mutual respect and consideration drive not just transactions, but positive, enduring partnerships.
Key Takeaways:
1:43 Welcome, Stephen
2:51 What is trust?
4:16 A tall order- developing trust
7:21 Smart trusting- giving trust without being a 'doormat'
10:25 Trust- AND verify
12:29 Trust in Fortune 1,000 companies
15:04 High trust dividends
20:02 My cynical views and a perpetual downward cycle
25:01 Solutions in building trust
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Jason welcomes Gretchen Morgenson as they discuss how private equity’s surge into single-family homes is reshaping urban landscapes and pricing out regular investors and first-time home buyers. They highlight concerns about these firms prioritizing profit over property maintenance, creating a semi-monopoly in the market. The impact stems from massive capital injections, largely sourced from public pension funds seeking high returns. Private equity’s historical roots in leveraged buyouts are discussed, noting the industry’s evolution and its current reliance on institutional investors. The conversation touches on rising interest rates affecting the real estate model and potential challenges for private equity firms. In closing, Gretchen warns individual investors of the industry’s growing interest in their capital.
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CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning:
http://JasonHartman.com/ProtectGet wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals
Special Offer from Ron LeGrand:
https://JasonHartman.com/RonFree Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing:
https://www.PandemicInvesting.com -
Jason interviewed Melody Wright, a housing analyst and strategist, about the housing market. Melody shared her experience in the mortgage industry and her transition into real estate technology. They discussed her pessimistic outlook on the housing market due to issues like inventory shortage, short-term rental properties, and ‘shadow leverage’. Melody emphasized that she wasn’t predicting a crash but was highlighting the challenges. Melody and Jason also discussed the delay in recording Covid data in Los Angeles County and the importance of triangulating data from multiple sources. They also touched upon the impact of a frozen housing market and the role of short-term rentals in the market. They also discussed the oversaturation of the short-term rental market due to Airbnb’s growth strategy, and the trend of institutional investors pulling back. They concluded the conversation with a discussion on the current state and future prospects of the housing market, including the shift towards rental properties.
She also discusses the oversaturation of the real estate market, particularly in the build-for-rent and multi-family sectors. She points out that the boom in building luxury properties and the overpricing of homes have resulted in an oversupply. Many builders have ignored the need for affordable housing, and there might be a need for government intervention to subsidize write-downs on overpriced properties. Wright also highlights the impact of demographic shifts, with fewer babies being born and boomers retiring, and their effects on housing trends.
Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN
Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI
Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/
Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/
Free Class: Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund
CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning:
http://JasonHartman.com/ProtectGet wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals
Special Offer from Ron LeGrand:
https://JasonHartman.com/RonFree Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing:
https://www.PandemicInvesting.com - Vis mere
