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Where does the race stand two weeks before Election Day?
To discuss, we are joined by Ronald Brownstein, a senior editor at The Atlantic and a senior political analyst at CNN. According to Brownstein, the election is âclosely balanced on the knifeâs edgeâ and very subtle shifts among coalitions in the swing states easily could change the outcome. Brownstein shares his perspective on possible paths to victory for each candidate based on the current data, and what we ought to look for on the campaign trail and in the polling during the last days of the campaign.Following the election, Brownstein will rejoin us for a special Conversation to analyze and reflect on what the 2024 returns reveal about the electorateâand what we can learn from these trends about how our politics might play out in the years ahead.
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How would the economy do under a Trump or Harris administration?
To discuss, we are joined again by the distinguished Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obamaâs second term. Furman shares his perspective on a wide variety of subjects including tariffs, trade policy with allies and adversaries, the dangers of a politicized Fed, inflation, and immigration. Forecasting economic policies under the two potential administrations, Furman contends that Kamala Harris would track Bidenâs policies to some degree, but âher instincts are just a little bit more towards wanting to pal around with CEOs than labor leaders relative to Joe Biden.â As for Trump, Furman argues that âthereâs one Trump, with responsible advisors, who doesnât do anything he says on the campaign and things turn out basically fine. Thereâs another Trump who does follow through, and that could be a downside for growth and a large downside in terms of higher inflation.â -
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We face an ever more dangerous geopolitical environment. In this Conversation, Princeton professor and AEI nonresident senior fellow Aaron Friedberg analyzes Americaâs foreign policy challenges and considers how a Harris or Trump administration might approach the threats we face. According to Friedberg, the cooperation among Russia, China, Iran, North Korea âhas grown more and more sophisticated and complexâ in recent times, making the challenges in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia more difficult to addressâas well as more interrelated. Friedberg argues that the volatility in American domestic politics makes predicting the American approach to countering these threats increasingly uncertain. As he puts it, âIf Trump comes back, the range of possible policies in each of these areas is just much wider than would have been typically the case in the pastââand a key question with Harris is "To what extent does she share [Bidenâs] gut instinct regarding American leadership?"
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How might Tuesdayâs debate shape the race in the weeks ahead? How can Harris capitalize on her performance? Will the debate affect the results in November?
With less than eight weeks to Election Day, veteran Democratic strategist James Carville shares his advice to the Harris campaign and analysis of the race. As he puts it: âPeople still, for better or worse, know Trump. [Harris] had a great debate, a great convention, but still has some more to fill out here.â According to Carville, now Harris might benefit from giving speeches on issues from the economy to foreign policy. The Democratic base, he argues, âwill allow her great leeway in appealing to more unaligned votersâand Trump doesnât have that.â Carville and Kristol also discuss whether another debate will happen, Trumpâs struggles to focus on issues, and possible key moments ahead in an extraordinary campaign. -
Where do things stand in the race after the Democratic convention and before the presidential debate?
When veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik joined us the day after Bidenâs withdrawal from the race he explained why the next month could be decisive in the fight to define Harris. Reflecting on the first five weeks of the campaign, Sosnik argues that she has been successful: âso far Harris is winning the battle about the campaign being about change, and she is the change candidateâmaking the campaign about the future and not about the past.â However, he cautions that the race remains very close. As he puts it: âHarris is still running behind the Biden-Harris numbers in 2020, and measurably behind. So, she does have more ground sheâs going to need to gain.â Sosnik shares his in-depth analysis of what the campaigns might do going forward, why the upcoming debate may be the most consequential in contemporary history, and the current dynamics in battleground states where the race will be decided. -
Where do things stand in the race now that the matchup is set?
According to veteran Democratic strategist James Carville, the replacement of Joe Biden by Kamala Harris has improved prospects for the Democratsâthough ânot as much as some people think.â As he puts it: âItâs like I tell people, if you have an infected wisdom tooth and you go to the dentist and they pull it out, you feel on top of the worldâ[but] God, you really donât feel any better than you would if you never had the infected wisdom tooth.â
In a race that may be won at the margins, as in 2016 and 2020, Carville explains that Harris must define herself and her candidacy successfully where she still isnât well known. According to Carville, she has the opportunity to brand Trump as âpast, yesterday, and staleââbut the Harris-Walz campaign must have a forward-looking message and run on concrete policy proposals. Carville also discusses the selection of Walz, the mood at Mar-a-Lago since Bidenâs withdrawal from the race, how the Trump strategy against Harris might develop, and offers advice about whether to have and how to handle a Harris-Trump debate. -
The withdrawal of Joe Biden from the presidential race three weeks after his disastrous debate performance, followed by the swift decision by Democrats to select Kamala Harris as the presumptive nominee, leaves us in uncharted waters. According to veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik, the broad contours of the 2024 election remain: âItâs a narrowly divided country. Itâs a fairly even race. But Trump has the advantage in an Electoral College system that [today] favors Republicans.â Yet this election has been like no other.
In this Conversation, Sosnik shares his analysis and practical advice for the next four weeks and the next four months. Sosnik explains why the next month may prove decisive. Each campaign now is racing to define Harris, and the stakes of the Democratic convention in August are higher than they have been in many decades. In the weeks ahead, Harris faces the daunting challenge of both running on strengths of the Biden-Harris record and presenting a case for the future that is her ownâall as she decides on the most effective case to prosecute against Trump. This will not take place in a vacuum. At the same time, Harris will face an onslaught from the Trump campaign, which has done little advertising during the past weeks and has a war chest to spend on defining her. Sosnik warns that, to win, it is essential for Harris to avoid the peril of presidential candidates like Mitt Romney, John Kerry, and Bob Dole, who have allowed their opponents to define them before their nominations.As Sosnik puts it: âSuccess always begets more success in politics. So the more successful she is at consolidating the party, demonstrating her capacity to be the nominee, the more successful she is on the run-up to the convention, the more likely the convention is to be a success.â To that end, he argues that Harris's decisions over the next weeksâabout her campaign staff, defining her vision, organizing a successful Democratic convention, selecting a strong vice-presidential candidate, etc.âlikely will determine her prospects in November.
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What should we make of Trumpâs plans for the federal bureaucracy in a second term? In recent days, there has been extensive reporting about âProject 2025,â an agenda and road map that openly aims to politicize the civil service and render it more compliant with the executive. In this Conversation, we are joined by University of Pennsylvania political scientist John DiIulio, one of the leading experts on the civil service and bureaucracy in America. DiIulio takes the Project 2025 proposal seriously. But he argues that attacks on the permanent bureaucracy as a âDeep State" are misleading, because the federal agencies all are accountable and subject to Congressional oversight in meaningful ways. DiIulio considers the threat of a second Trump administration prioritizing loyalty over competency in the bureaucracy, the history of the civil service in the US, and what meaningful reforms of the bureaucracy might look like. DiIulio argues that above all we should focus on reforming the use of federal contractors, which remains the most unaccountable part of American government.
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What is the state of the economy today and where might it be at the time of the November elections? To discuss, we are joined again by the distinguished Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was deputy director of the National Economic Council during the Financial Crisis and then served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obamaâs second term. As Furman puts it, in spite of the inflation of the past few years and other longer-term challenges, âWe really are right now economically the envy of the world. So I think it makes a lot of sense that we worry about our problems and figure out what we can do to make it even better.â In a wide-ranging analysis, Furman shares his perspective on inflation, employment, debt, and both Biden and Trump economic policies regarding immigration, tariffs, and other questions. While highlighting the strength of the US economy today, Furman notes how public policy choices and domestic and world events could affect us in the long term.
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Where do things stand in Ukraine? How are European democracies faring? How should we think about the challenge from autocracies around the globe?
To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Anne Applebaum. Applebaum shares her perspective on recent developments in Ukraine, Russia, and Europe including the recent EU elections. She points to Ukraineâs continued resilience in the face of serious challenges, and Europe and Americaâs support for Ukraine in spite of domestic pressures against it. But she notes that we only have begun to think seriously about the challenges from autocracies, and that much more needs to be done to defend democracy at home and abroad. As Applebaum puts it: âCommunist China, nationalist Russia, theocratic Iran, Bolivarian socialist Venezuela, whatever North Korea is⊠these arenât countries that share an ideology... but they do share a common interestâundermining usâand by us, I mean America, Europe, the liberal world, the democratic world.â -
Where do things stand in the race as we head into the summer?
According to veteran Democratic strategist James Carville: âItâs clearly very close. There clearly can be events that can impact the outcome. But weâre headed to an election that not many people are very excited about.â
Carville argues that the Biden campaign needs a message on the economy that is forward-looking, and suggests it isnât enough for the president to frame the election as a referendum on Trump. Carville considers how abortion and unpopularity of the MAGA movement are potentially winning issues that the Biden campaign might use more effectively. But he notes the Trump operation has been more disciplined than in 2016 or in 2020, and reflects on the limitations to date of Bidenâs campaign as incumbent. Kristol and Carville also consider how the outcome of Trumpâs New York trial, a debate in June (if it happens!), the conventions, and other upcoming events could shape the race.
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Is today's anti-liberalism a new phenomenon in American politics? What might earlier eras in US history have to teach us?
To discuss these questions, we are joined, again, by Robert Kagan, the historian and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Drawing on his new book, Rebellion: How Antiliberalism Is Tearing America ApartâAgain, Kagan argues that we âdonât realize that the [anti-liberal] movement weâre looking at today has been visible in every generation since the founding.â Kagan draws particular attention to the 1920s, when anti-immigration sentiment, white identity politics, and sympathy for authoritarian figures were prevalent in America. Kagan notes that the MAGA movement can be understood as a part of a long history of anti-liberalism that runs counter to the tradition of the founders, yet remains endemic to American democracy. Liberal democracy in America thus needs to be fought for and cannot simply be assumed. -
Where do things stand in Ukraine? How will the recently-passed aid package help Ukraine on the battlefield? How does the war in Ukraine relate to rising threats from adversaries around the globe?
To discuss these questions we are joined again by Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Kagan explains that Ukraine continues to face serious difficulties, in part because of a critical shortage of weapons as a result of the delay in US support. Yet the recently-passed aid package should bolster defenses against Russiaâs anticipated assault this summer, and potentially help Ukraine to make gains in a counteroffensive early next year. Reflecting on the war and the world situation more broadly, Kagan points to the rising alliances among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as a comprehensive threat to the free world. As he puts it: âThese countries disagree about a lot of things. They donât share a common ideology. But they do share a common enemy: us.⊠We have to recognize [it] is an entente that aims to take us down, and we have to be resisting every part of it.â -
What was it like serving in the Trump administrationâand what might a second Trump term look like? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense from 2019-2020. In this Conversation, Esper considers Ukraine, China, and other foreign policy challenges facing the United States, and reflects on his experience leading the Department of Defense during the Trump administration. Esper discusses accomplishments of American foreign policy during those years, but also raises deep concern about Trumpâs attempts to politicize the military and his placing unsuitable personnel at the center of key foreign policy decision-making. And he argues that these tendencies, which were kept partially under wraps in the first term, could prove to be more alarming in a secondâespecially considering Trumpâs increasing priority of selecting personnel based on personal loyalty. In a time of what he calls âgreat power competition with Russia and China,â Esper argues it is vital to have a strong foreign policy team in placeâand dangerous to have a bad one.
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Where do things stand in the 2024 race? What campaign strategies might increase Joe Bidenâs chances? How might the economy, the border, wars in Europe and the Middle East, Trump's trials, and third-party campaigns affect the race? To discuss these questions, we are joined by David Axelrod, chief strategist for Barack Obamaâs presidential campaigns in 2008 and 2012. Axelrod explains: âI would not count on the shock and dismay of people over the fact that [Trump] is under 91 criminal indictments, or that he engineered an insurrection, and so on. I think youâre going to get that [vote] for free, but itâs not enough to win.â According to Axelrod, the Biden campaign also should not be complacent in thinking that touting Bidenâs achievements during his first term will be enough. Instead, he argues, Biden needs to focus on the economic challenges people face todayâwhile framing the election as a contrast between Biden and Trump, and not simply as a referendum on Bidenâs presidency.
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What do Joe Biden's successes, failures, and poll numbers reveal about the state of the Democratic Party today? In an era of polarization, can a spirit of moderation and bipartisanship be rediscovered?
To discuss these questions, we are joined by Joe Klein, the veteran reporter, author, and analyst of American politics. Klein reflects on the changes of the Democratic Party over recent decades, including his perspective on the elevation of identity politics over unity. According to Klein, the Biden administration has been reasonably effective, but often has not been able to move the Democrats, or the country, beyond narrow interest-group politics. In the face of demagoguery from the Trump movement, Klein calls for a reinvigorated politics of moderation that can draw on the best traditions of both parties. Klein also shares fascinating personal reflections about reporting on and interacting with leading figures including Bill and Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. -
Two years into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? What are Vladimir Putinâs war aims and how is attempting to undermine American commitment and resolve?
To discuss these questions, we are joined by Timothy Snyder, a Yale historian and leading expert on Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe. Noting impressive successes in recent weeks despite the lack of weapons supply from the United States, Snyder argues that âthis is still a war that Ukraine can win. But it depends upon whether they have allies who are capable of seeing the political stakes and capable of behaving in a way which is consistent with simple military logic, which is what do you need to do to help your ally to win.âPersuading Americans that Ukraine cannot win, or even that a Russian victory would be preferable, is an integral part of Vladimir Putinâs war strategy. According to Snyder, Putin knows he cannot win on the battlefield if the West musters its collective energy to Ukrainian victory, but believes he can win by influencing our political debates about international engagement and support for the war. Defeating Russia, Snyder explains, is vital not only for Ukraine, but also for America and our allies. Kristol and Snyder also discuss how understanding fascism might help us to comprehend contemporary Russian politics and other political developments around the world.
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Where does the 2024 presidential race stand? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, and how might such an unpopular rematch play out? What could happen if it's not Biden and Trump?
To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik, former political director in the Clinton White House and author of this weekâs important New York Timesop-ed,âBiden Canât Count on Trumpâs Unpopularity Anymore.â According to Sosnik, a Biden campaign strategy of aiming to âdisqualify" Trump in the minds of voters is insufficient: Biden also must make an affirmative case for a second term while overcoming doubts about his age and health. Because the polarization in the country remains so intense, another Biden v. Trump race would be a world of âhigh floors and low ceilings.â According to Sosnik, Trumpânow slightly ahead in the pollsâis "bumping up to the high end of his ceiling,â while âBiden is bumping up to the bottom of his floor.â Kristol and Sosnik also consider the possible effects of a third-party challenge in a polarized environment, and how the race might take shape if either Trump or Biden is not renominated. -
Summing up the state of the 2024 race as we head toward the South Carolina primaries, veteran Republican pollster Whit Ayres says if the election were held today âTrump would win ⊠in the Electoral College.â
Yet despite Trumpâs quasi-incumbency, 40-45% of the Republican primary electorate have voted for other candidates to date. According to Ayres, Trump suffers from some major weaknesses as a candidate, which leave an opening for Nikki Haleyâand portend problems for Trump in a general election. But Biden may be even weaker. As Ayres puts it, âthe vast majority of Americans, including a vast majority of Democrats, think Biden is just too old to serve effectivelyâŠand virtually no one in either party thinks Kamala Harris is ready for prime time.â Despite the appearance of stability in the raceâthe increasing likelihood of a 2020 rematchâAyres notes that a full 2/3 of Americans are unhappy with the choice between Biden and Trump. Kristol and Ayres consider how, beneath the surface, the 2024 contest may be unstableâwith the potential for domestic and geopolitical events to intervene, and third-party challenges that could upend the race.
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What are the latest developments in the US-China relationship? What can we learn from recent elections in Taiwan? How does the CCP view the wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East?
To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Princeton professor Aaron Friedberg. Considering the situation in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, Friedberg argues that we face distinct but overlapping challenges from âincreasingly aggressive authoritarian powers.â According to Friedberg, China has supported our rivals out of the belief that âconflict wears us down, deflects our attention from the Indo-Pacific region, and contributes to divisions emerging in this country over foreign policy in a way we havenât seen in some years.â Kristol and Friedberg also discuss the deepening divisions in the country over foreign policy, and consider how a Republican or Democratic victory in November could affect the global security situation. - Vis mere
