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The coming year is going to see more economic and geopolitical volatility for investors to navigate. Paul asks members of the abrdn economic research team to outline the big questions they are asking as we head into 2025 â including President-elect Trumpâs policy choices, the prospect of ceasefires in Ukraine and the Middle East, and whether the UK Chancellor will be back with more tax increases.
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We need to talk about debt. Global government debt is approaching 100% of global GDP. And the incoming Trump administration may be about to increase the large US fiscal deficit still further. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss whether the infamous bond vigilantes will return, pushing up government borrowing costs amid fears of debt sustainability.
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Manglende episoder?
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A Trump presidency will have important implications for tax and spending, immigration, trade policy, and regulation. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by James McCann and Lizzy Galbraith to discuss the likely tax cuts and spending measures that Trump may pursue, the prospect of a global trade war, and what all this means for monetary policy and financial markets.
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Labourâs first budget was a big one â new fiscal rules, large tax and spend increases, and a big rise in investment. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to break down the measures, and assess what they mean for the UKâs economic, political and market outlook.
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After months of piecemeal economic policy support, Chinese stimulus has stepped up significantly and equity markets have surged higher. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Robert Gilhooly about the headwinds the Chinese economy has been facing, the risks of China slipping into âJapanificationâ, and whether recent measures represent a turning point in monetary and fiscal policy support.
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Markets are facing an array of potential risks - from the imminent US election, narrow leadership in equity markets, and spiking tensions in the Middle East. Paul and Luke speak to Carl Hazeley from Finimize about how retail investors are navigating the economic and market landscape, and how financial institutions can support this increasingly sophisticated group of investors.
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Economies are built on infrastructure. But stretched public finances mean the state is increasingly looking to the private sector to help fund infrastructure. Climate change, technological progress, and geopolitics are changing the sort of infrastructure we need. And building physical infrastructure can be fraught with hurdles from the planning process. On this episode, Paul Diggle speaks with Bridget Rosewell, board member of the UK Infrastructure Bank and former Commissioner of the National Infrastructure Commission, about the economics of infrastructure.
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UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her first Budget on 30 October. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew ask whether Labour have been talking the UK economy down as the government manages expectations ahead of potential tax increases, and whether markets should be concerned about possible accounting changes to the way Bank of England losses are treated in the public finances.
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A weak US jobs report reignited concerns about a US recession, and a surprisingly large Bank of Japan rate hike causes a rapid unwind of the yen carry trade. Together, these sent shockwaves through financial markets. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to James McCann and Sree Kochugovindan about whether âthis time is differentâ for US recession indicators, what the resignation of Prime Minister Kishida means for the Bank of Japan, and the outlook for US and Japanese monetary policy.
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We frequently discuss globalisation, political volatility, geo-political competition, and technological change on this podcast. But how can investors play these trends? Paul Diggle talks to Blair Couper and Jamie Mills-OâBrien, equity fund managers at abrdn, about thematic investing.
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The UK general election delivered a large Labour majority, while the French second round vote has resulted in a fragmented parliament and in the US, President Bidenâs grip on the Democratic nomination may be slipping.
Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to discuss what these political developments mean for investors, including whether Labour can boost UK growth, the structural challenges facing France, and what a Trump presidency might mean for markets. -
France is heading to the polls in snap election, and markets are concerned about a potential large fiscal expansion. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Felix Feather about why Macronâs gamble doesnât seem to be paying off, the chances that the next government enacts a large fiscal expansion, questions of Franceâs membership in the Eurozone, and whether comparisons with the UKâs âLiz Truss momentâ are appropriate.
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China has become a global EV superpower in very short order, with major macroeconomic repercussions. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to Lizzy Galbraith and Robert Gilhooly about how China overtook the US as the worldâs pre-eminent manufacturer of electric vehicles, the ways in which this is changing the course of the Chinese economy, and why this is amplifying trade tensions with the US and Europe.
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The snap UK general election on July 4th is very likely to result in a Labour government. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to Lizzy Galbraith about what this might mean for the economy â from fiscal policy and planning reform, to green industrial policy and the approach to the EU.
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The US dollar is different to every other currency. The dollar is the global reserve asset, and its dominant status means dollar strength has important global spillovers. Paul and Luke discuss why the dollar has been appreciating recently, why this matters, how the dollar became so important, the benefits and drawbacks this brings to the US, and why a potential second Trump presidency could drop the USâs long standing commitment to a strong dollar.
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The traditional trade engine of globalisation has stalled or is even heading into reverse. But the globalisation of information, capital and people is still powering on. Nevertheless, even these aspects of globalisation are facing an increasingly hostile political and policy environment, including a potential Trump Presidency and ongoing US-China tensions. Paul Diggle speaks to James McCann about the nature of âglobalisation 3.0â, and what it means for the economic outlook and financial markets.
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The global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is filled with risks around inflation, interest rates, and instability in the Middle East. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss how scenario analysis can help investors to navigate uncertainty. They also consider the Bernanke review of the Bank of Englandâs forecasting process, which includes a recommendation to make greater use of scenarios.
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The Bank of Japan has taken the historic step of ending negative interest rates and may hike further. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve seems to be approaching rate cuts, but an economic âno landingâ could delay this. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Sree Kochugovindan and James McCann about the outlook for monetary policy in Japan and the US.
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The âgreat inflationâ saw not only price growth, but also inflation volatility, spike higher. And even as inflation itself has fallen back more recently, inflation volatility has remained elevated. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss why structural changes in the global economy, stalling globalisation, geopolitical fragmentation, and climate change may all mean that higher inflation volatility is here to stay â and why this would have significant implications for financial markets and portfolio diversification.
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China has just announced a GDP target of âaround 5%â for 2024. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Robert Gilhooly, senior emerging market economist at abrdn, about the challenges and opportunities facing the Chinese economy.
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