Episoder
-
More CRE developments today and last week this time with a focus on Europe. New reports indicate losses are coming soon and data from the ECB shows why there are so many concerns. We also have the latest bank lending figures which show more troubling signs under the cover of 'extend and pretend.'
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ECB Commercial real estate and financial stability – new insights from the euro area credit register
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/macroprudential-bulletin/html/ecb.mpbu202210_4~0aa7d44e15.en.htmlReuters Explainer: European banks and their $1.5 trillion commercial property headache
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/european-banks-their-15-trillion-commercial-property-headache-2024-02-15/S&P Global Investors expect surge in bad commercial real estate loans at European banks
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/investors-expect-surge-in-bad-commercial-real-estate-loans-at-european-banks-81618608FitchRatings Global Contagion Risk Growing from Rising CRE Losses, Led by Office
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/non-bank-financial-institutions/global-contagion-risk-growing-from-rising-cre-losses-led-by-office-02-04-2024https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
More data released today which shows the US economy has taken a turn for the worse. Consumers are running out of options and are turning in huge proportions to alternate means to stay afloat. One of those alternatives, however, is being closed off as the American banks are now actively cutting back risk while going on a buying binge for safety.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
nerdwallet 2024 State of Consumer Credit Report
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/credit-cards/2024-consumer-credit-reportCNBC 25% of consumers recently used a buy now, pay later loan, report finds. What to know as they become popular
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/28/buy-now-pay-later-loans-are-second-only-to-credit-cards-in-popularity.htmlFRBNY HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORT (Q1 2024)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdchttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Manglende episoder?
-
What's misinformation about the economy? It's a well-known fact policymakers and Economists outright lie about any situation. But why? They say it's for your own good. The lies are beginning to pile up so much that officials now have to lie about their lies, including the very theory behind all of this especially when some of the theoreticians who came up with it no longer want to be the very purveyors of misinformation.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
George DeMartino Should Economists Deceive? Prosocial Lying, Paternalism, and the ‘Ben Bernanke Problem’
https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1256&context=peri_workingpapersDeLong & Summers How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1988/06/1988b_bpea_delong_summers_mankiw_romer.pdfBrad DeLong Greater Depression
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/j--bradford-delong-argues-that-it-is-time-to-call-what-is-happening-in-europe-and-the-us-by-its-true-nameBank of England Ben Bernanke to lead review into forecasting at Bank of England
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2023/july/ben-bernanke-to-lead-review-into-forecasting-at-bank-of-englandBank of England Forecasting for monetary policy making and communication at the Bank of England: a review
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/independent-evaluation-office/forecasting-for-monetary-policy-making-and-communication-at-the-bank-of-england-a-review/forecasting-for-monetary-policy-making-and-communication-at-the-bank-of-england-a-reviewMervyn King Per Jacobsson Lecture: The World Turned Upside Down: Economic Policy in Turbulent Times
https://meetings.imf.org/en/2019/Annual/Schedule/2019/10/19/imf-seminar-per-jacobssonhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
It doesn't help that policymakers and Economists quite openly admit they will and even should lie to you about the state of the economy. But to go so far as to call legitimate and widely-shared criticism misinformation is taking this too far. The reason it is going this way is just how difficult the situation has become, which brings us back to the first point: who's actually telling the truth?
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
Should Economists Deceive? Prosocial Lying, Paternalism, and the ‘Ben Bernanke Problem’
https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1256&context=peri_workingpapersFoxNews Democrat claiming 'inflation rates are down' interrupted by higher than expected inflation report
https://www.foxnews.com/media/democrat-claiming-inflation-rates-down-interrupted-higher-expected-inflation-reportThe Undecideds What Are Undecided Voters Really Thinking?
https://markhalperin.substack.com/p/what-are-undecided-voters-reallyBloomberg Fed’s Bostic Says Policy Is Taking Longer to Slow Growth
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/fed-s-bostic-says-policy-is-taking-longer-to-slow-growthhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
After months of silence, a couple of critical developments from the beleaguered commercial real estate sector show up all at once. For the first time since the Global not-Financial Crisis, a senior tranche of a CLO took losses - a lot of losses - while redemptions threaten to force liquidations at one of the spaces more important CRE funds. Not good first signs for the bubble unwind.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg A Really Bad Sign for Commercial Real Estate
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-05-23/bloomberg-evening-briefing-a-really-bad-sign-for-commercial-real-estateBloomberg Starwood’s $10 Billion REIT Turns to Survival Mode as Real Estate Pain Lingers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/starwood-reit-sets-drastic-redemption-limits-on-liquidity-crunchBloomberg Lenders Race to Buy Back Delinquent Multifamily Mortgage Loans
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-01/jpmorgan-says-commercial-real-estate-clo-loan-buyouts-are-set-to-reach-a-recordFitch Global Contagion Risk Growing from Rising CRE Losses, Led by Office
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/non-bank-financial-institutions/global-contagion-risk-growing-from-rising-cre-losses-led-by-office-02-04-2024https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
On top of dumping Treasuries (which I covered in detail in a previous video https://youtu.be/j00_S1iug9c), China's also dumping its excess production on the rest of the world. The tactic has become so pervasive governments worldwide are responding with more than idle threats. But what are they really worried about given this means cheaper stuff and lower prices?
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Remarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen at Press Conference Ahead of the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meetings
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2363Reuters Yellen wants G7 'wall of opposition' to China's excess industrial capacity
https://www.reuters.com/markets/yellen-says-g7-discuss-responses-chinas-excess-industrial-capacity-2024-05-23/Treasury Secretary Yellen on PBS
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/treasury-secretary-yellen-on-why-biden-is-targeting-chinese-manufacturing-with-new-tariffshttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The retail giant's latest earnings report confirmed...well, pretty much everything. Inflation risks, consumer capacities, the direction of interest rates and more. Target's results help setting the debate on prices while also dovetailing right in with a whole bunch of the latest figures on especially gasoline and even rents.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Target Corp First Quarter Earnings
https://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/05/target-corporation-reports-first-quarter-earningsTarget Corp Press Release Lowering Prices
https://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/05/target-will-help-consumers-save-big-by-lowering-prices-on-5,000-frequently-shopped-itemsCNBC Target shares tumble 10% as consumers buy fewer groceries and home goods
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/target-tgt-q1-2024-earnings.htmlBLS New Tenant Rent Index
https://www.bls.gov/pir/new-tenant-rent.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
There is a widespread feeling that something doesn't 'feel' right about the economic situation. While the official world vehemently denies it, they have every incentive not to admit the truth. There are various ways and methods to quantify living standards, especially material standards. Using officials' own methodology, we find the 'feeling' is very well grounded in material fact(s).
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Boston Fed How do We Measure Standard of Living
https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/ledger/winter2004/livstand.pdfCDC Drug Overdose Deaths
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db491.htmCDC Birth Stats
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htmCDC Birth Rates
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2020-2021/Brth.pdfChristopher Waller Little by Little, Progress Seems to be Resuming.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240521a.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Apple becomes just latest corporation to report results in line with recent macro statistics. That list now includes Home Depot and even today's Red Lobster bankruptcy. People are struggling and businesses are noticing and feeling the impact. But how far has it gone? Some other metrics are not encouraging.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Apple Second Quarter Earnings
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2024/05/apple-reports-second-quarter-results/CNBC Apple announces largest-ever $110 billion share buyback as iPhone sales drop 10%
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/02/apple-aapl-earnings-report-q2-2024.htmCNBC Red Lobster files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/red-lobster-bankruptcy.htmlCNBC Home Depot misses on revenue, as high interest rates hurt sales
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/home-depot-hd-q1-2024-earnings-.htmlCNBC Are consumers pulling back on spending? It depends on which CEO you ask
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/consumer-pullback-ceos.htmlBloomberg What Is Buy Now, Pay Later? How It Works and the Hidden Risks You Should Know
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-09/what-is-buy-now-pay-later-how-bnpl-plans-workBloomberg Treat Buy Now, Pay Later Loans Like Real Debt
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-14/treat-klarna-affirm-buy-now-pay-later-loans-like-real-debtBloomberg Americans Are Racking Up ‘Phantom Debt’ That Wall Street Can’t Track
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/-buy-now-pay-later-has-americans-racking-up-phantom-debtFlex
https://help.getflex.com/hc/en-us/sections/360004885954-Get-Startedhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Business at Walmart is brisk these days...and that's a big problem. The better things go for the company especially at the grocery department the worse you know it is in the economy. And the big retailer just put up robust results because it isn't just struggling Americans coming in to shop, Walmart is now getting tons of business from high-income earners, too, because now they're struggling. Not exactly the soft landing signal we'd hoped.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
NY Post Wealthier customers flock to Walmart to boost retailer’s sales in strong Q1 earnings
https://nypost.com/2024/05/16/business/wealthier-customer-flock-to-walmart-to-boost-retailers-sales-in-strong-q1-earnings/Bloomberg Why We Can't Shake the Vibecession, Even in the Face of Good News
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-05-16/high-prices-and-phantom-debt-why-we-can-t-shake-the-vibecessionhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The Chinese have sold a record amount of US Treasuries. Again. Most mainstream explanations point to political motives including many asserting an intentional act to move away from the dollar. The actual reason is indeed monetary but not at all in that way. The important immediate implications tell us a lot about the conditions for the globally synchronized economy.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg China Sells Record Sum of US Debt Amid Signs of Diversification
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-16/china-sells-record-sum-of-us-debt-amid-signs-of-diversificationCNN China has teased how it might fix its property crisis. Markets are loving it
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/16/business/china-property-crisis-unsold-homes-hnk-intl/index.htmlChina NBS Basic situation of the national real estate market from January to April 2024
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202405/t20240517_1955760.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
A major global central bank would never hike rates during a prolonged recession, would it? You might be surprised to find out the answer is a solid, yes. Not only did it just happen, the reasons why tell us a whole lot about the real aim of central bank policies, where they come from, and, more important of all, the status of our globally synchronized world. The cycle drama just got taken up a notch.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Japan’s Economy Sputters as Dismal Run Extends to Three Quarters
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/japan-s-economy-contracts-as-consumers-companies-cut-spendingReuters Japan's economy skids, clouding BOJ's rate hike plans
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-gdp-contracts-complicating-bojs-rate-hike-plans-2024-05-16/Reuters Japan's finmin says 'speculative' moves in currency market impacting yen
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/japans-finance-minister-sees-speculative-moves-currency-market-2024-04-01/Investing.com Japan GDP shrinks more than expected in Q1 as consumption slows
https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/japan-gdp-shrinks-more-than-expected-in-q1-as-consumption-slows-3443154https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
They called it the most important economic update in living memory, holding the key to everything from inflation to economy and interest rates. When it came out, it wasn't what everyone thought and even more interesting those numbers ended up being overshadowed by another set alarmingly consistent with everything else we've been seeing lately.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
BLS April US CPI press release
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdfBloomberg Here Are the Key Takeaways From US CPI Report for April
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/us-cpi-report-april-2024-key-takeaways-on-inflation-core-measureBloomberg US Retail Sales Stall After Downward Revisions in Prior Months
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/us-retail-sales-stall-after-downward-revisions-in-prior-monthsCNN The backbone of America’s economy was just dealt a serious blow
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/economy/us-retail-sales-april/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
When the person who is supposed to help you find a job finds out they no longer have one themselves, that's a warning sign about the economy. Those have been proliferating lately and mostly focused on employment. This fits nicely (in a bad way) into other late cycle signals coming across including a sharp rise in consumer credit delinquencies.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Indeed Message from CEO
https://www.indeed.com/press/releases/a-message-from-our-ceo-chris-hyams-2FRBNY HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORT (Q1 2024)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.htmlLiberty Street Economics Delinquency Is Increasingly in the Cards for Maxed‑Out Borrowers
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/05/delinquency-is-increasingly-in-the-cards-for-maxed-out-borrowers/https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
China's total credit in April actually fell for only the third time and by the most ever. Clearly the government is alarmed by that as well as the distinct lack of traction in the real economy (more deflation in producer prices, minimal gains in consumer prices). We'll go over what was just reported, what the government's next government plan is likely to be, and what the market(s) reaction(s) has(have) been.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
NYT Biden Looks to Thwart Surge of Chinese Imports
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/us/politics/biden-china-imports.htmlWSJ China Hints at New Growth Push as it Warns of Rising Uncertainties
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-calls-long-delayed-policy-meeting-warning-of-rising-uncertainties-032fb571https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
There is a resurgence underway not from consumer prices as everyone thinks, instead the use of the term "stagflation." This is really nothing more than the shift in narrative attempting to incorporate more visible economic weakness while still keeping it the idea "inflation." But as the former takes the forefront, the latter will continue to fade until what's left isn't even stagnation.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Another critical economic measures shows big negative changes and they aren't "inflation" problems. It's not just that American consumers are cracking, the consistent theme which keeps coming up over and over is jobs. The US labor market has been stuck in half a recession already, is this now the other half?
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
UofM Surveys of Consumers
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/CNBC Consumer sentiment tumbles as inflation fears surge, closely watched survey shows
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/10/consumer-sentiment-tumbles-as-inflation-fears-surge-closely-watched-survey-shows.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The one news article in the media said it all; more companies are now cutting their prices despite inflation. Except, no, it isn't in spite of other price changes, instead in response to them. The economy isn't inflationary, it is weak and getting weaker. Eye opening new data is alarmingly consistent with the price cuts.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNN Retailers jacked up prices and squeezed consumers. They might have just blinked
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/05/business/retailers-cutting-prices/index.htmlMichaels Lowers Prices on Thousands of Arts, Crafts and DIY Items
https://www.michaelspressroom.com/news/detail/2293/michaels-lowers-prices-on-thousands-of-arts-crafts-and-diyhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Japan's government conducted three (unconfirmed) major currency interventions in less than a week. Already JPY is falling almost like they never happened. It's the dollar that's the matter because what's the matter isn't just Japan and like a lot of things energy is the key. As the Japanese understand all too well, energy means dollars.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg BOJ’s Ueda Ramps Up Yen Warnings While Traders Keep Selling
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-08/boj-s-ueda-tweaks-weak-yen-remarks-in-possible-hint-of-rate-hikehttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
FreightWaves Texas’ Arnold Transportation acquired by Canada’s Pride Group Logistics
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/texas-arnold-transportation-acquired-by-canadas-pride-group-logisticsGlobal NewsWire Pride Group Logistics Expands U.S. Presence With the Acquisition of Arnold Transportation Services, Inc.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/02/01/2377007/0/en/Pride-Group-Logistics-Expands-U-S-Presence-With-the-Acquisition-of-Arnold-Transportation-Services-Inc.htmlFreightWaves 92-year-old Texas trucking company files for bankruptcy liquidation
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/92-year-old-texas-trucking-company-files-for-bankruptcy-liquidationInvestopedia Etsy Stock Dives as Retailer Warns of 'Challenging Environment' for Consumer Spending
https://www.investopedia.com/etsy-q1-2024-earnings-weak-consumer-spending-8642325ISM Services April 2024
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/april/Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU - Vis mere
