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As the Friday before Thanksgiving unfolds, we are seeing cryptocurrency up and gold down! The markets are in a reflective yet volatile state. The emergence of Bitcoin options sparks intrigue and skepticism, with aggressive call-to-put ratios suggesting speculative fervor but also significant risk. Amid these market shifts, a broader discussion unfolds on the profitability of writing versus buying options, with no definitive data but a clear invitation for insights from more experienced market participants.
Today we discuss...
The Thanksgiving holiday week is historically a peculiar time for trading, with irregular schedules impacting market activity. The introduction of Bitcoin options has sparked curiosity, with high premiums signaling extreme market expectations but posing significant risks. Bitcoin's potential inclusion as a U.S. reserve asset has revived discussions, despite being a long-standing topic without concrete developments. Options trading serves as a tool for managing risk, with ongoing debate about whether option writers consistently outperform buyers. Advanced data and analysis on options market outcomes could provide valuable insights for seasoned investors. The Ethereum market has rebounded to a normal range but has underperformed Bitcoin. Bitcoin has benefited from two factors: election outcomes and speculation about its potential role as a reserve asset. Trump was strongly pro-Bitcoin, while Harris has shown lukewarm support, affecting market perceptions. Speculation on Bitcoin's role as a reserve asset has driven short-term price spikes. There are significant challenges to making Bitcoin a reserve asset due to its price volatility and speculative nature. Bitcoin's fixed supply and hoarding behavior contribute to its price volatility and limit its practicality as a currency. The U.S. government could use confiscated Bitcoin for reserves without impacting the market. Michael Saylor's leveraged Bitcoin strategy demonstrates the high-risk, high-reward nature of such plays. Bitcoin is increasingly seen as an asset class rather than a functional currency. The limited liquidity in Bitcoin due to speculative holding patterns mirrors challenges in other markets with reduced float. Small-cap stocks have performed well post-election, partly due to optimism about domestic economic policies. Small-cap indexes like the S&P 600 are stricter on profitability compared to the broader Russell 2000, impacting valuation clarity. Structural differences in today's IPO and investment landscape may affect the long-term potential of small caps.
For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/cryptocurrency-up-663Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth ManagementFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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Anne Lester is here to discuss the retirement solutions and challenges that are facing each generation. Ann shares insights into the challenges of saving for retirement, influenced by her personal experiences as a former "terrible saver." There is a lot the anxiety surrounding retirement savings, the pitfalls of focusing on "the number," and the importance of understanding personal spending flexibility and failure lines. Ann discusses generational differences in retirement preparedness and highlights strategies for building retirement savings, such as saving future raises and adjusting spending priorities.
Today we discuss...
How Anne helped create the JP Morgan Smart Retirement Target Date Fund.
Retirement challenges, including income uncertainty and spending in later life. Understanding personal "failure lines" and acceptable lifestyle adjustments. Generational wealth differences, with Gen Z and Millennials saving more early. The importance of employer-sponsored 401(k) plans for wealth building. Younger generations face challenges saving for retirement but are encouraged to stay the course for long-term stability. The housing market imbalance is influenced by limited supply, high prices, and generational trends in homeownership. Starter homes are increasingly unaffordable, forcing many young buyers to rely on financial help from family. The housing market could improve in 5-10 years as demographics and housing supply gradually shift. Multifamily housing and smaller new builds are growing trends, potentially offering more affordable options for buyers. Behavioral economics and AI have the potential to assist individuals in managing spending habits and savings strategies. Credit availability and understanding its consequences play a significant role in financial outcomes for younger generations. Boomers struggle with transitioning from saving to spending in retirement, often leaving unused funds. Generational differences in attitudes toward spending, saving, and credit reflect diverse economic experiences. Future perspectives on bonds may involve alternative strategies as economic conditions evolve.For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/retirement-solutions-anne-lester-662
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Jeff Hulett | Finance RevampFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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The Trump presidency is going to affect your investments and today we discuss how! We talk about focusing on shifting paradigms, market trends, and the need for pragmatic investing. We criticize tech stocks, social media’s evolving role in information dissemination, and reflections on media partisanship. Our overarching goal is for you to focus on investment opportunities created by policy changes rather than being swayed by ideology.
Today we discuss...
Reflections on self-awareness and understanding societal perceptions after the election. Observations about the market downturn, especially in tech stocks. Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter and its cultural implications. The significance of comedy and free speech in maintaining societal balance. Discontent with corporate media as biased propaganda, regardless of political alignment. Concerns about the long-term sustainability of pensions, Medicare, and Social Security in the 2030s. Inflation’s impact on savings and purchasing power as a critical financial concern. Discussion of policy proposals like free college and their feasibility in a paradigm-shifting era. The potential economic disruptions from AI and other transformative technologies. Shifts in investment strategies to align with anticipated policy changes under new leadership. The importance of separating politics from investment decisions to maximize financial outcomes. The strategic approach to capitalizing on corporate tax cuts and their impact on major companies. Critique of ideological investing for potentially leaving significant financial gains on the table. Nuclear energy is gaining bipartisan support due to its reliability as a load power source. Abundant, cheap energy is critical for societal progress, as scarcity leads to economic stagnation and conflicts over resources. Proposals like replacing income tax with tariffs reflect the trade-offs inherent in policy changes. Recognizing the populist movement as a response to frustrations with big institutions and a desire for greater voter control. Misinformation in charts and emphasizing skepticism when analyzing data visuals online. Identifying signs of euphoria in market sentiment as a potential warning for cautious investing. Contrarian investing during periods of extreme optimism or pessimism as a timeless strategy.For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/trump-presidency-661
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | ProCollege PlannersFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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Marco Santarelli returns to share real estate opportunities you should be jumping on in 2025! Despite rising interest rates, Marco remains optimistic about real estate as one of the best opportunities to be a part of. He explains that high demand and low supply in many U.S. markets create opportunities, particularly in non-tier-one markets, and encourages investors to focus on "where" to invest rather than "when" to start. Most people who do start investing in real estate regret that they didn't invest even more!
Today we discuss...
Marco Santarelli shares his journey as a serial entrepreneur with a primary focus on real estate investing, specifically in turnkey investment properties. Rising interest rates and their impact on real estate affordability. Focusing on location rather than timing the market, as there are always opportunities in specific markets. A lack of supply has created high demand in many U.S. housing markets, which is unlikely to be balanced before 2030. How affordability challenges affect buyers and investors, especially in expensive tier-one markets. Marco argues that even with higher mortgage rates, real estate investments continue to offer wealth protection, growth, and tax benefits. The current economic backdrop, including inflation and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, and its effects on real estate. Real estate investments are viable at any interest rate if the numbers work and the location is right. Housing demand is high due to an underbuilt market, with 2.1 million units needed to meet current demand. Industrial real estate is performing well, while commercial properties struggle with vacancies. Small-scale residential properties (1-4 units) are ideal for most investors due to financing benefits and availability. Effective property management is essential; consider tenants as customers and research property managers’ services, reputation, and fees. Real estate offers long-term benefits through cash flow, equity, and tax advantages, and consistent education is key for successful investing.For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/real-estate-opportunities-marco-santarelli-660
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth ManagementFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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The election results are in and the real winners are the American people who do not have to watch politics ads anymore! Today we dive into the aftermath of the recent elections and what happens next for the markets. We talk about the ineffectiveness of government spending and the evolving view of political parties. There needs to be greater personal accountability and unity in navigating the nation's political landscape. No matter what we will be sure to see the impact of political dynamics on society and markets. The market will definitely respond to the political events of the next four years.
Today we discuss...
Relief after the recent election, especially from political advertising overload. How a record-breaking $15.9 billion was spent on U.S. political ads this election cycle. Frustrations over high campaign spending and suggests such funds could better support social causes. Critiques of the U.S. political system's reliance on private contributions and its potential to sway policy. Comedians like Jon Stewart for addressing political hypocrisy across the spectrum. The American political system seems to shift over time, with parties taking on opposite stances on issues like war. Bipartisan acceptance of differing opinions and the preservation of First Amendment rights are essential for a healthy society. Freedom of speech includes both expressing opinions and facing possible negative reactions. Extremist views on both political sides have made rational discussion harder. Polarized societies often see suppressed opinions emerge during pivotal events, like elections. Market reactions to election results can indicate future performance trends. Specific sectors post-election, like coal, banks, and crypto, provides insights on economic sentiment. Election outcomes impact short-term market volatility, but fundamentals drive long-term trends.For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/election-results-659
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | ProCollege PlannersFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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Mark Lumpkin is here to discuss real estate investing through creating a successful AirBNB. He delves into what it means to be a "super host," by enhancing a property's visibility and appeal. If you have a unique properties that can serve as part of the travel experience, you can find yourself a niche in the industry, and tailor your property for maximum appeal and profitability. Many new investors rush in, lured by promises of high yields but lack a strategic approach. Mark shares the secrets of how to maximize your success.
Today we discuss...
Mark explains his and his wife's travel experiences that led them to prefer short-term rentals over traditional hotels. How, inspired by their experiences, they decided to invest in short-term rentals and became Airbnb superhosts. How short-term rentals have made previously uneconomical properties profitable by offering daily rentals instead of long-term leases. The importance of having unique, high-quality properties to remain competitive and mitigate downturn risks. Focusing on mid-range properties, rather than luxury or low-end ones, often yields the best financial results. How unique, non-duplicatable properties avoid direct competition with identical listings. Market risks such as natural disasters, insurance costs, and operational expenses specific to high-tourism areas. The premium pricing strategy on weekends in vacation destinations for maximum yield. Catering to unique needs, like wheelchair accessibility or family-friendly amenities, can attract a premium. Balancing seasonal properties across markets with varying peak seasons can stabilize cash flow. Managing a short-term rental requires a strong on-ground team for cleaning, maintenance, and guest support. Listing properties on multiple platforms (Airbnb, VRBO, booking.com, etc.) increases exposure and revenue opportunities. Building a brand and direct-booking options, supported by social media, is a growing trend among property owners.For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/successful-airbnb-mark-lumpkin-659
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The election just happened and that means there will be some shenanigans after the election! Today we talk divisiveness in political discourse, the inefficiencies in government spending, and the challenges posed by increasing national debt and interest payments. The inefficiency in government spending and decision-making extends across the board so you need to be aware of your own finances and investments. Focus on your pragmatic investment strategies amidst economic uncertainty, especially after the election, and you'll be on a better track.
Today we discuss...
How politics is largely unhelpful for investing discussions.
Today’s society often discourages open, contradictory opinions. Election results are here, and market stability would benefit from a decisive winner. Government spending has increased while private sector growth lags. Government debt interest payments have surpassed national defense spending. The economy faces challenges as more jobs shift to government, education, and healthcare. Older generations dominate U.S. power structures, limiting opportunities for younger leaders. Economic solutions are limited to either growth, inflation, or reduced spending. The government, healthcare, and education sectors often suffer from inefficiency due to regulation. Technological advances in housing and nuclear energy are slowed by regulatory oversight. Crypto has been highly volatile, though fixed-income investments have also been risky in recent years. Significant donations from the crypto sector went to both political parties in the last election cycle. The market’s response to election results is likely stable unless there is a contested outcome, which could trigger volatility.Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | ProCollege PlannersFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast
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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/after-the-election-657
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Richard Duncan is back to share the concept of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund, an idea to drive national economic growth through large-scale public investment in emerging industries and technologies. Recent bipartisan support from both the Trump and Biden camps highlights growing momentum for this initiative, and Richard thinks it could accelerate technological breakthroughs in fields like AI, quantum computing, and biotech. Such a fund would not only help reduce the national debt but also bolster U.S. competitiveness against China’s rapid advancements in technology and defense.
Today we discuss...
The concept of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund, a proposal he has supported for years as a means of boosting national economic growth. Concerns that government programs already incentivize private sector growth, like R&D tax credits and preferential funding, but face inefficiencies. How a U.S. sovereign wealth fund would act as a venture capital source for private companies, similar to successful models in Singapore. How under-investment could allow China to become the dominant superpower, citing parallels to Europe's unpreparedness for Hitler’s rise. The effects of inflated debt and the fragility of the U.S. economy, highlighting government intervention as a key reason it hasn’t collapsed. If credit contracts, a recession could turn into a depression, risking significant economic instability. Each time private sector defaults threaten contraction, such as in 2008 and 2020, government intervention prevents economic collapse. Advocates of austerity overlook that spending cuts can cripple consumption, investment, and job creation, leading to economic decline. The speaker argues that large-scale investment, rather than austerity, is essential for growth and national security. America's economic resilience stems partly from government debt; alternatives could risk societal collapse. Future U.S. prosperity and competitiveness, especially against China, depend on substantial investment in science and technology. The risk of economic misallocation, using overemphasis on pharmaceuticals as an example. Balancing private sector decisions and government financing could ensure effective investment in essential industries. The U.S. must innovate in energy, particularly nuclear and fusion, to meet growing demands from sectors like AI. America's past reliance on globalization reduced inflation, but future economic stability may require adapting to changing global conditions.For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/sovereign-wealth-fund-richard-duncan-656
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth ManagementFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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There's a problem with the election and it's not just about you, it's me too. Our conversation today highlights how U.S. political party priorities have evolved with shifts in censorship power dynamics now seen in tech and government interactions. Voter turnout patterns by state reveal high engagement in blue states, sparking a discussion on potential impacts and a reflection on whether blockchain could offer fairer and more secure elections.
Today we discuss...
Most recent information is likely to be unreliable, especially with the election looming. Historical context regarding political party evolution highlights significant shifts in the Democratic and Republican parties over the years. The potential for implementing blockchain technology in voting is suggested as a way to enhance transparency and prevent voting irregularities. When investing in the market, your biases—whether bullish or bearish—can distort your perception of reality. Confirmation bias leads investors to seek information that supports their beliefs while ignoring opposing viewpoints. Historical examples highlight how both individuals and groups can rationalize harmful choices based on their biases. Recent trends show a belief that investing solely in the S&P 500 or real estate is the only way to achieve financial success, neglecting historical performance data. Many investors, including Warren Buffett, are reevaluating their holdings based on new data, which suggests current market valuations may be overly optimistic. Historical performance metrics show that various asset classes, including gold and emerging markets, may outperform current popular investments. A shareholder proposal suggests Microsoft should consider holding Bitcoin instead of cash, reflecting a shift towards cryptocurrency among corporations. Leveraging Bitcoin or any asset carries significant risks, particularly if market conditions change abruptly. Despite increasing investments in Bitcoin, its price has remained relatively stable, indicating complex market dynamics.For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/problem-with-the-election-655
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | ProCollege PlannersFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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Today I'm joined by my good friend, The Tax Goddess to discuss the Profit First system. Shauna Wekherlien's background in helping people legally minimize taxes and maximize savings and focuses on the Profit First system, a financial management approach for businesses and individuals. We explain how this system promotes discipline by prioritizing profit before expenses. Shauna also shares strategies to reduce tax bills legally. Today we discuss...
Shauna Wekherlein shares her work as a tax strategist, helping people manage money and keep it away from the government legally. The Profit First system is a simple financial framework for both businesses and individuals. Shauna explains the process of setting aside a percentage of revenue for profit before paying expenses. Profit First encourages using multiple bank accounts to separate funds for profit, taxes, and other expenses. Kirk shares his positive experience with the Profit First system, calling it life-changing. How the system is customizable, allowing users to start small and increase their profit percentage over time. Shauna emphasizes the importance of having a separate bank account for taxes. The value of financial strategies to reduce tax bills while still ensuring funds are available for payments. Shauna highlights how business owners and individuals can use the Profit First method to achieve personal and financial goals. The conversation covers common financial challenges like lifestyle inflation and debt, and how Profit First can help avoid them.For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-profit-first-system-shauna-wekherlien-654
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Megan Gorman | The Wealth IntersectionFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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Where is Bitcoin going next? Today we discuss Bitcoin and how it's currently crashing and what that means for it's future! We also talk about how consumer confidence fluctuates based on political affiliation and reflect on how political leanings shape people's perception of reality. We analyze charts "chart crimes," emphasizing how misleading technical analysis can be. We also touch on America's ever growing debt.
Today we discuss...
There's only two weeks between Halloween and the election! The University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index reveals an inverse correlation between political party expectations based on who is in power. How political bias colors people's perception of reality. A shift in political leanings of tech executives is observed, with a historical trend toward Democrat support but a recent swing toward conservatism in 2024. The current state of leadership, with a lack of strong leaders across political lines. The concept of "chart crimes", where misleading technical analysis charts often deceive inexperienced investors. Bitcoin technical analysis is debunked, explaining that chart setups are not guaranteed predictions. The U.S. may face bankruptcy within 5 to 10 years, which could trigger significant inflation and financial hardship. The velocity of money and the trust in currency are key indicators to watch for potential hyperinflation or financial instability. Bitcoin's recent rise is correlated with an increase in M2 money supply, and both Bitcoin and gold are seen as potential hedges against inflation. There's uncertainty about how Bitcoin will perform in future recessions since it hasn't faced a major economic downturn yet. Consumers are struggling with high core inflation, impacting necessary expenses like utilities and food, despite overall inflation rates declining.For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/where-is-bitcoin-going-653
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | ProCollege PlannersFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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Jenny Groberg joins us to share how she has because a master of balancing business and family. Her journey led her to starting a consulting business from home while raising five children and navigating financial challenges due to her husband's medical school and residency. Jenny talks financial literacy, highlighting how she and her husband quickly paid off $250,000 in loans by living below their means.
We discuss...
Jenny Groberg is a mother of five, married for 21 years, whose husband's medical school and residency led her to start her own business out of necessity. She started consulting from home and built a successful business employing hundreds of women across the US who also work remotely from home. Jenny's company taps into a highly educated female workforce, breaking barriers in finance and challenging traditional male-dominated spaces. She is passionate about empowering women, especially during times of economic hardship, as many women are returning to work due to rising costs and inflation. Jenny highlights the flexibility and adaptability of women who juggle family and professional responsibilities while navigating challenges like maternity and remote work. The accounting field is shrinking, but Jenny sees opportunities in helping businesses improve financial literacy and manage their finances better. She emphasizes the importance of focusing on profitability over growth and ensuring businesses maintain financial discipline for long-term success. Jenny shares her personal story of paying off $250,000 in student loans in two years by maintaining a strict budget and avoiding lifestyle inflation. She believes that staying out of debt and managing finances conservatively can lead to long-term financial freedom and stability. Jenny encourages business owners to regularly monitor their financials, manage payroll efficiently, and make conservative financial decisions to ensure business survival and growth. She warns against relying on adjustable-rate loans and stresses the importance of saving for unexpected financial changes.For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/balancing-business-and-family-jenny-groberg-652
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth ManagementFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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We reveal the secret tax the government is hiding from us! We also talk the misunderstandings of inflation and all it's complexities. We also help you learn more with key inflation-related terms, such as deflation, disinflation, and hyperinflation, clarifying that hyperinflation occurs when public trust in a currency is lost. And we also argue that inflation is influenced not just by money printing, but also by the velocity of money—the rate at which money circulates within an economy.
We discuss...
Government-published CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the gold standard for measuring inflation, but there may be incentives to manipulate it. Shadow Stats shows inflation metrics based on older CPI calculations, suggesting a higher inflation rate than reported. Historical inflation rates in the 70s and 80s were much higher than today's target of 2%, challenging the notion of what's considered "normal." Money velocity is key to understanding inflation, as low velocity can counteract the effects of money printing. New money creation typically leads to inflation. Consumer price inflation visibly increases the price of goods and services, reducing purchasing power. When wages don't rise alongside prices, it squeezes the middle class and working class, making them poorer. Quantitative easing leads to asset price inflation but not consumer goods inflation. Stimulus checks and COVID relief caused consumer price inflation by increasing the money supply. Globalization has caused deflation by reducing the cost of goods. Technological advances are deflationary by making products cheaper and more efficient. Declining populations can lead to deflation, which worries governments with debt-based economies. Immigration helps prevent population decline but has complex economic and cultural implications. Despite recent inflationary spikes, the current trend is toward disinflation. U.S. debt has grown dramatically, with the annual increase accelerating in recent years.For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/secret-tax-651
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | ProCollege PlannersFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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Jeff Hulett shares how a proper personal finance education can build the habits that grow lifelong wealth. Our cognitive biases impact financial decision-making, often work against us. He highlights the role of habits and commitment devices in overcoming these biases, while also discussing the dangers of modern marketing and the manipulation of data. We also touch on how evolutionary biology still influences our financial behaviors today.
We discuss...
Jeff Hewlett shares his background in finance, mathematics, economics, and experience in banking and consulting. Jeff discusses his involvement in AI, machine learning, and how these technologies have been evolving over decades. He talks about his current role leading Personal Finance Reimagined, a platform focused on decision-making and financial education. How wealth distribution challenges are attributed to evolutionary biology and consumerism. Jeff emphasizes the importance of creating good financial habits and using commitment devices, such as robo-advisors. AI and its impact on decision-making, especially its potential for persuasion. Jeff highlights the significance of aligning decision processes with natural human tendencies, like binary decisions. How the U.S. education finance system preys on availability bias, deferring loan payments to the future while hiding present costs. College prices are excessively high, leading to concerns about the return on investment (ROI) for students. The value of a college degree is more about demonstrating the ability to work hard and sustain effort over four years. Community college can be a cost-effective route to a degree, demonstrating both financial savvy and resilience. There's a cognitive bias known as "time discounting" that leads people to struggle with understanding the compounding value of time. Confirmation bias affects political and social views, often reinforced by media echo chambers. Media, both legacy and social, plays a significant role in shaping biased worldviews, sometimes feeding incomplete or selective information. There's a growing generational divide in media trust, with older generations more likely to trust media than younger ones. The rise of narrowcasting in media has led to the creation of echo chambers where people only hear confirming viewpoints. Consumers of free media or social platforms are often the "product" being monetized, even when they think they aren’t paying for content. AI and technology add to the complexity of discerning truth, as biases are baked into data sources, and deep fakes further obscure reality. The challenge for society is figuring out how to discern accurate information amid pervasive bias and misinformation.
For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/personal-finance-education-jeff-hulett-650Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Megan Gorman | The Wealth Intersection Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth ManagementFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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Hurricane Helene was devastating, and it impacted so much more than just Asheville. Hurricanes can cause major claims, leading to a temporary dip in stock prices for these insurers, creating a chance to buy at a discount. Although insurers face huge costs when these disasters strike, they benefit from collecting high premiums that continue to rise in coastal areas. Only time will tell how the impacted areas, the insurance companies, and the stock market will recover in the aftermath.
We discuss...
Hurricane Helene and the other hurricane that is on it's way. The opportunity for investors to buy discounted property and casualty insurance stocks during high-claim seasons. Property casualty insurers’ strength lies in their ability to collect premiums and invest the float before claims are paid. Warren Buffett’s investment strategy with property casualty insurance, leveraging the float for long-term investments like Coca-Cola. Buffett’s investment prowess and how insurers gain an advantage by not needing to borrow money to grow. The complex nature of analyzing property casualty insurers, which requires specific metrics. A note on Hurricane Helene and the financial impact of other costly hurricanes. Update on the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rate cuts and fluctuating market expectations. Warning about the unreliability of government data, especially close to elections, and how market participants respond to such data. People are uncertain about market trends, and data may not always be reliable. Data manipulation in government reports has occurred, so numbers should be taken as guides, not definitive facts. A significant number of government employees were hired in September, influencing employment statistics. Elections add volatility to markets, with uncertainty often causing swings before stabilizing afterward. Corporate media often shapes narratives, leaving people feeling frustrated and distrustful of information. Extremist factions in politics are gaining influence, with candidates catering to these groups for votes. Many voters align with their party regardless of the candidate, reducing the significance of "undecided" voters. Wall Street prefers certainty, with market trends stabilizing after election results are confirmed.Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | ProCollege PlannersFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast
Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast
For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/hurricane-helene-649
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Josh Radman joins us today to discuss a little discussed topic on Money Tree Podcast: Decoding RSU, ISO and NQ SOs. He also shares how government programs and how they impact our labor market. He shares an example from local Broogers, which struggled to find staff and often received resumes from unemployable candidates. Josh also touches on how employment data has been revised to show many jobs are part-time or within the government, driven by new regulations. Shifting gears, Josh explores the idea that large AI models, like ChatGPT, might be throttled to prevent them from predicting the future, potentially disrupting markets. He also highlights the critical need for clean, reliable data for AI to function properly, as current government data is often inaccurate or manipulated.
Today we discuss...
Josh Radman shares his background, from General Mills to tech companies like Walmart e-commerce, where he encountered confusion around equity compensation. How his frustration with understanding ISOs, RSUs, and NSOs led him to found Presidio Advisors, a firm focused on helping millennials with equity compensation. He emphasizes the importance of balancing tax considerations with investment risk and prioritizing financial goals. Radman discusses regret minimization as a tool for decision-making, helping clients navigate the risks of equity compensation. Companies often fail to educate employees about equity compensation due to legal concerns, leaving employees to navigate complex tax and financial decisions. The complexity of ISOs, NSOs, and RSUs requires advanced planning and understanding, especially when managing liquidity events like IPOs. How long-term capital gains tax rates are preferable (0%, 15%, or 20%) compared to ordinary income tax rates (up to 37%). Employees often face a limited post-termination exercise period (typically three months) to exercise stock options after leaving a company. It’s important to assess short-term, mid-term, and long-term cash needs when considering exercising stock options. Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) are taxed as ordinary income upon vesting without requiring cash outlay to exercise. A common misconception is that you must hold RSUs for a year to achieve optimal tax treatment; this is not necessary. Employees often underestimate total exposure to their company’s stock due to both explicit and implicit risks. Cognitive biases, such as the endowment effect, can lead individuals to overvalue their RSUs and resist selling. Market returns are skewed, with a small number of companies generating significant returns; diversification is essential to mitigate risk.For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/decoding-rsu-iso-nqso-josh-radman-648
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal FinanceFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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Election season upon us so you know that there will be an irrational impact of politics that is going to hit the market this fall. We also discuss the aging of political figures like Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and the impact of stress on leaders. We explore generational cycles, particularly the "Fourth Turning" theory, and reflect on media influence and propaganda, both in the U.S. and globally.
Today we discuss...
The U.S. presidential candidates and the physical and mental demands of the campaign trail, especially for older politicians. They explore the concept of "fourth turning" and generational cycles of conflict, predicting ongoing societal tensions. Global perspectives on the U.S. are discussed, contrasting media portrayals and public opinions abroad How "truth" is often subjective, shaped by perspective and opinion, especially in political contexts. Both sides in a debate typically view the other as misinformed or evil, leading to a polarized environment. The upcoming election period is expected to be filled with misinformation and humor, as political discourse tends to devolve. Investment markets exhibit similar behavior, where individuals often believe they can predict outcomes, leading to misguided confidence. Historical economic events, such as the housing market in the late '90s and 2007, demonstrate patterns of irrational behavior among investors. Wall Street often presents a biased perspective, promoting buying to maintain market stability and profits. People become emotionally invested in their stocks or political affiliations, which clouds their judgment and objectivity. Discussions of gold, silver, and cryptocurrency reveal that tangible assets are often viewed as safe havens in uncertain economic climates. Emotional decision-making plays a significant role in how individuals approach investments, especially concerning real estate versus stocks.Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | ProCollege PlannersFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/irrational-impact-of-politics-647
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Peter Berezin is here today to discuss the global meltdown that is coming! The chief strategist at BCA Research discusses the potential for an upcoming U.S. recession. Peter predicts that a recession could lead to a significant market crash, even without deep economic downturns, much like the 2001 recession. He also touches on inflation, budget deficits, and the government's ability to counteract economic downturns.
Today we discuss...
Predictions of a US recession to start later this year or early next year, contradicting the expectation of a soft landing. Economic insulation from job openings and excess pandemic savings is depleting, cooling the economy. Real estate markets, including commercial, residential, and single-family homes, look worrying due to high vacancy rates and rising delinquency. Small regional banks could face problems due to their exposure to commercial real estate, potentially leading to a steady stream of bad news. During a recession, Berezin expects opportunities to buy solid companies at a discount, particularly in tech and healthcare. Inflation is expected to stay under control over the next 12 months due to a weakening economy, falling job openings, and lower wage growth. Peter explains that printing money to finance fiscal deficits can be inflationary, particularly when unemployment rises and fiscal spending increases. The large US budget deficit is troubling, especially as counter-cyclical fiscal policy might be limited during future economic downturns. Concern about the continued printing of money in bad times, potentially leading to economic imbalances like income inequality. Raising taxes is suggested as a possible path forward, though political challenges could impede this. Tax increases are likely if certain tax cuts expire, with potential cuts to defense or social spending as other budget-balancing measures. Concerns about worsening fiscal scenarios prompt the idea of hedging with TIPS and gold. Global markets, especially outside the U.S., are seen as more attractive due to valuation gaps, with emerging markets managing inflation better recently. Commodities, particularly metals, are seen as benefiting from the green energy transition, while oil demand may decrease. Gold is positioned as a hedge against geopolitical volatility and long-term inflation, though rising bond yields have made it less attractive recently. Bitcoin is unlikely to become a central bank asset due to its anonymity and governments' need to monitor and tax transactions.For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/global-meltdown-peter-berezin-646
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth ManagementFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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Corporate media is heavy on the propaganda these day! It's hard to tell what is real in the news anymore. But what we do know for sure is the Federal Reserve made a surprising decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, reducing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. We talk the implications of this unexpected move. It's hard to understand the Fed's rationale so it's important to understand the data that may not be publicly available and questioning what signals the Fed is responding to. That's why you need to stay vigilant when it comes to the news and where you're getting your facts and data from.
Today we discuss...
The Fed surprised many by cutting the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4.75% to 5%. Concerns arose about the sudden need for significant rate cuts, indicating potential underlying economic issues. Many speculate that the Fed possesses data not publicly available, raising concerns about hidden economic pressures. The Fed's decisions are influenced by unemployment trends more than inflation or stock market performance. Speculations linger about whether the Fed's actions could influence the upcoming election, although this is not typically their mandate. Overall, the Fed's strong statements indicate a serious concern about economic conditions, prompting scrutiny and analysis from investors and economists alike. The speaker argues that news media often functions as high-grade propaganda, which can cloud rational thinking. The rise of the internet in the 1990s disrupted traditional media by providing free access to information. People shifted from relying on traditional media outlets to independent sources like blogs and podcasts. The limitations of their data access compared to government or mainstream media. The media employs attention-grabbing tactics, such as sensationalism and loud broadcasts, to attract viewership. This reliance on dramatic presentation often overshadows the delivery of accurate information.
For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/heavy-on-the-propaganda-645Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth ManagementFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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Anthony Coniglio is here today to talk about how you can invest in cannabis stocks! Anthony co-founded New Lake Capital Partners, a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on the cannabis sector. Today he's here to discusses the complexities of investing in cannabis! He touches on the challenges and opportunities in the U.S. cannabis market, such as state-by-state regulations, federal restrictions, and evolving consumer preferences. There is potential for medical cannabis, but there is also need for more research to enable broader investment and growth in the industry.
Today we discuss...
Anthony's 30 years of business experience, and how it led him to co-founding New Lake. How the cannabis market has garnered attention since Canada's legalization in 2018, with various investment opportunities emerging in both U.S. and Canadian markets. Investing in cannabis can involve direct plant-touching businesses (cultivators, manufacturers, distributors) or non-plant-touching businesses (ancillary services, real estate). Medical cannabis is supported by a majority of Americans, but research is hindered by its Schedule I status, limiting evidence on its efficacy. The Schedule I to Schedule III rescheduling proposal is still pending, with a hearing scheduled for December to address comments and opposition. The cannabis industry is highly regulated, with indoor cultivation facilities focusing on optimizing THC content. Consumer preferences are shifting towards edibles and drinks rather than raw flower, indicating potential growth areas in the industry. Hemp differs from cannabis mainly in THC content, and can be used for various industrial applications, including products with higher THC through legal loopholes. The cannabis sector faces challenges due to federal regulations affecting banking and investment, impacting liquidity and institutional involvement. There is a need for policy reform to enable better banking services and research opportunities, which could normalize the industry and recognize its significant employment impact.For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/invest-in-cannabis-stocks-anthony-coniglio-644
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal FinanceFollow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
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