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Tom welcomes back Peter Goodburn from WaveTrack International to discuss his analysis of the financial markets. Goodburn's focus is on Elliott Wave analysis and he believes that the current market environment can be understood as a binary relation to tariffs. If tariffs continue, stock markets will decline, and gold prices will rise. Conversely, if negotiations cool off, the stock market may recover, but gold prices may experience profit-taking sell-offs.
Goodburn also shared his perspective on interest rates, suggesting that Treasury yields are heading lower due to the perception of increasing inflation risks. He believes this decrease in yields indicates that a US downturn is likely, although he did not specify a timeframe for when this may occur. The interview also touched upon copper prices, with Goodburn noting that China's position on strategic metals could impact their availability and pricing going forward.
As the conversation concludes, Goodburn emphasized the importance of following price levels and wave patterns instead of being overly reliant on news flow to make trading decisions.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Analysis of the Markets3:27 - S&P Charts & Sentiment10:37 - Nasdaq Outlook13:04 - Blow-Off Technicals17:42 - Global Capital Rotation24:54 - Global Market Surveys25:37 - Dr. Copper & Tariffs31:38 - China & Rare Earths34:26 - Gold's Strength & Inflows38:12 - Gold Pullback Coming?44:47 - US Dollar Thoughts48:30 - Jerome Powell & Rates51:13 - Weak Canadian Peso54:55 - Treasuries & Yield Spikes59:22 - Tariffs & Inflation1:04:50 - Crude Oil Prices1:09:06 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/ElliottWave_WTIWebsite: https://wavetrack.com
Peter Goodburn is the founding partner of WaveTrack International. His trading experience spans back to the late 1970s working then in the commodities business for exchange members and their clients. In those earlier years of his career, he created the first OTC (over-the-counter) copper option product based upon the Comex (New York) contract around the mid-eighties, and in the same period, devised Opval, an option-evaluation software program that is currently used in many of the major market-making institutions of today.
His fascination with price activity and how that related to the news flow within the markets captured his imagination early on. Peter's first annual diary of 1978 records his notes and remarks on how the interaction and relationship of fundamental news and price movement often contradicted themselves. Some years later, this was to ignite his interest in causal theory and naturally, the Elliott Wave Principle.
He was first introduced to the Elliott Wave Principle in the mid-eighties listening to daily updates of financial commentary by Bob Beckman on LBC radio (London Broadcasting Company). This led him to the work of Frost/Prechter and their first re-publication of R.N.Elliott's (1871-1948) original treatise of 1938 (The Wave Principle) and 1946 (Nature’s Law – The Secret of the Universe), entitled "the Elliott Wave Principle" (1978). Peter’s a self-proclaimed purist of the Wave Principle but has developed a unique approach of geometric Ratio & Proportion that is instrumental in maintaining a dispassionate and objective view of the market. He has applied this analysis to every major asset class over the years, stocks, bonds, currencies & commodities, and promotes the importance of interdependency of the combined group.
Peter has been a member of the U.K.’s Society of Technical Analysts (STA) for over twenty-five years and is a Certified Financial Technician recognized by the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA). He has taught the Elliott Wave Principle to students at the London School of Economics as part of the STA’s diploma program and is a member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and the Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology and Life Sciences. -
In this episode on Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Jaime Carrasco. Jaime is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management.
Jaime discusses the current economic landscape and the implications for investors. Carrasco emphasizes the importance of understanding the paradigm shift in the monetary system, particularly the role of gold and silver as sound money.
Carrasco highlights that the global economy is facing a debt bubble, where each additional dollar of debt fails to stimulate growth, leading instead to social instability. He argues that this situation is similar to what Latin America experienced, with the US now reaching a critical point. Carrasco believes that the current fiat system is imploding, and gold will play a central role in the upcoming reset of the monetary system.
He discusses the rise of gold prices across major currencies, noting that this reflects the decline in purchasing power of fiat currencies rather than an increase in gold's intrinsic value. Carrasco warns against complacency among financial advisors who fail to recognize these systemic changes and advises investors to allocate a significant portion of their portfolios to precious metals, particularly through well-managed mining companies.
Carrasco also delves into the role of silver, emphasizing its structural deficit in production relative to demand, especially given the shift toward green energy. He suggests that silver's price will rise significantly as the global economy transitions, offering investors substantial opportunities.
The interview touches on geopolitical dynamics, including China's strategic accumulation of gold and its influence on the global monetary system. Carrasco warns against trusting central banks and advocates for individual investors to establish their own "gold standards" to protect wealth.
Finally, Carrasco advises investors to focus on stockpicking within the precious metals sector, emphasizing high-quality producers with strong management and leverage to rising metal prices. He encourages a long-term perspective, positioning oneself to benefit from the coming paradigm shift rather than trying to predict short-term price movements.
Talking Points From This Episode0:00 - Introduction2:10 - Changing Roles4:30 - Currencies Vs. Gold9:14 - Trump & Debt Bubble15:40 - Tariffs & Positioning23:50 - Silver Opportunity26:20 - Silver Supply Deficit30:15 - M&A Activity Strategy34:08 - Gold & Leverage37:11 - Mkt. Volatility Causes39:08 - A Quiet Fed & Inflation45:42 - Lower Dollar US/China48:42 - When to Sell Gold?57:05 - Concluding Thoughts59:00 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/ijcarrascoLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/Website: https://www.harbourfrontwealth.comE-Mail: [email protected]
Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.
Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.
Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment stra... -
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Tom welcomes back Michael Pento, from Pento Portfolio Strategies. The discussion revolves around the current economic landscape, highlighting the Federal Reserve's challenges in balancing inflation control and recession fears. Pento argues that the Fed is constrained by a "Gordian knot" of conflicting mandates, emphasizing its focus on bailing out banks and managing government debt rather than addressing inflation effectively. He critiques the dual mandate of stable prices and full employment, suggesting that employment rates have little bearing on inflation, which stems from fiat currency devaluation.
Pento also delves into the impact of tariffs, particularly those imposed by former President Trump, noting their role in exacerbating economic instability. While he acknowledges the intent behind these measures—to rebuild the middle class and reduce trade deficits—the lack of clear planning and frequent changes create uncertainty for businesses. This unpredictability complicates financial decision-making, especially for manufacturers considering relocating production.
Pento advocates for a model that considers credit spreads, real interest rates, and financial conditions. He warns against passive investing in market-cap weighted indices like the S&P 500, which concentrates capital in overvalued stocks and amplifies market volatility. Instead, he recommends an active approach, emphasizing short-term bonds, gold, and selective equity exposure.
Pento also discusses the role of gold as a hedge against inflation and economic instability, distinguishing between physical gold (held personally) and liquid paper gold (ETFs and mining stocks). He advises investors to allocate 5% of their net worth to physical gold for safety, with additional exposure to liquid gold based on market conditions.
Finally, Pento addresses the potential for geopolitical conflicts, such as tensions with China, to drive demand for gold. He concludes by highlighting the importance of an active investment model in navigating economic uncertainty, emphasizing that investors cannot rely solely on passive strategies or the hope of market recovery.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:32 - Fed & Economic Numbers2:52 - Tariff & Uncertainties8:02 - Crash & Fed Reactions11:12 - Yields Spiking Meaning14:32 - Demand Into Gold19:38 - Reserves & Rev. Repos21:53 - Uncertainty & Massive Q.E.26:12 - Passive Investments?32:28 - Gold & Rumors of War34:35 - Mining/Gold Investments39:30 - Institutional Interest41:50 - Thoughts on Silver42:30 - 2025 is Exhausting43:26 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: http://pentoport.comE-Mail: [email protected]: https://twitter.com/michaelpento
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with more than 30 years of professional investment experience. He worked on the floor of the NYSE during the mid-90s. Pento served as an economist for both Delta Global and EuroPacific Capital. He was also the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios, which were distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network. -
Tom welcomes back Martin Armstrong from Armstrong Economics to explore current global economic trends, geopolitical tensions, and market reactions. Armstrong discusses how governments worldwide are facing declining trust due to progressive agendas, citing examples like Germany's shift toward far-right parties and Europe's struggles with migration.
Armstrong highlights the cyclical nature of political movements, referencing Trump's 2016 victory as a starting point for this global anti-government sentiment. He also touches on free speech restrictions, drawing parallels between historical financial suppression in Europe and today's broader censorship trends.
Regarding U.S.-China trade tensions, Armstrong explains that tariffs are often misunderstood, citing historical context from the 1930s to show they don't cause economic collapses but can lead to trade wars. He critiques media coverage for sensationalism, particularly Bloomberg's recent claims about market corrections, arguing these panic-inducing narratives mislead investors.
Armstrong also delves into Trump's policies, questioning his understanding of general economic and suggesting that lower corporate taxes could boost competitiveness. However, he warns against blaming Trump for broader economic declines, which he attributes to global trends rather than individual leaders.
The discussion shifts to gold's role as a safe haven during geopolitical instability, with Armstrong emphasizing its historical correlation with war and political uncertainty.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - News & Keeping Up5:07 - Confidence in Gov't8:35 - Objectivity & Markets18:17 - Trump Rhetoric & China21:52 - CPI Lies & Obligations23:13 - Trade Negotiations?29:39 - Comparative Advantage39:10 - China & Real Reasons43:30 - Bond Markets & China?46:34 - Trump & Jerome Powell52:55 - Trump Policy Outlook57:30 - U.S. Income Tax1:00:00 - European Depression1:02:10 - Trump Reforms & Peace?1:13:44 - Gold Recent Strength1:16:51 - Gold & Safety Flight1:18:24 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: http://armstrongeconomics.comTwitter: https://x.com/strongeconomicsFacebook: https://facebook.com/martin.armstrong.167Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ybtrslr9
Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.
At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries.
Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter.
"In Armstrong's view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia's financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro "will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation," leading to the system's eventual collapse."
His Website Armstrong Economics offers a unique perspective intended to educate the public and organizations on the global economic and political environment's underlying trends. -
Tom welcomes back Simon Hunt, an expert on global economics, China, and the copper industry. Hunt discusses the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, driven by Trump's tariff policies and geopolitical ambitions. He explains that these tensions could lead to regional conflicts, with significant implications for global markets and supply chains.
Hunt also explores the broader shift in global power dynamics, highlighting how nations like China, Russia, and Iran are strengthening ties through organizations like BRICS. He warns that U.S.-China trade disputes, including high tariffs on Chinese goods, are causing severe disruptions to global supply chains and manufacturing sectors. These disruptions are expected to lead to a global economic slowdown or recession.
The conversation delves into the potential impact of these developments on financial markets, particularly the value of the dollar, which Hunt suggests may undergo significant changes as countries seek alternative currencies tied to gold. He also discusses copper's role as an economic barometer, predicting price volatility and eventual increases due to supply chain disruptions and long-term demand shifts.
Hunt concludes by emphasizing the uncertainty and chaos that dominate the current geopolitical landscape, urging caution for businesses and investors as they navigate this complex environment. The episode ends with a note on the importance of staying informed about global developments to understand their far-reaching implications.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:55 - Liberation or Demolition3:54 - Iran Sovereignty & Trump8:56 - China & 104% Tariffs16:20 - Trump & Iran Escalation21:50 - Tensions Ukraine/Russia28:20 - U.S. Trillion Defense Budget30:37 - A Tale of Two Dollars34:37 - China Yuan Devaluing38:20 - BRICS Currency?39:30 - China's Econ. Issues47:40 - Global Slowdown & Copper54:11 - Monitor Geopolitics56:44 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Email: [email protected]: https://simon-hunt.com/Substack: https://shss.substack.com
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.
In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.
He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company's cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.
He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.
The focus of the company's services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China's economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.
Simon is the author of the "Frontline China Report Service," which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China's economy, politics, and financial outlook.
Simon established this company in January 1996. -
Tom welcomes back John Rubino, Former Wall Street Analyst, Author & Substacker for a discussion on the current economic landscape and its implications for investors. Rubino discusses the end of a credit supercycle, highlighting the risks of hyperinflation, deflation, and stagflation due to global fiat currency systems. He emphasizes the importance of real assets like gold, silver, and energy during potential financial chaos.
Rubino also addresses the role of energy prices, particularly oil, in driving inflation or deflation. He suggests that lower oil prices could lead to a short-term deflationary period, followed by inflationary pressures as central banks respond with low interest rates. This creates uncertainty but opportunities for resilient investments.
The discussion touches on President Trump's policies, including tariffs and reshoring, which could lead to wage inflation and geopolitical tensions. Rubino warns against the risks of negative interest rates and the potential need for a currency reset, possibly returning to a gold standard.
For investors, Rubino recommends focusing on real assets such as precious metals, energy, and farmland. He suggests dollar-cost averaging in gold and silver and cautious investment in mining stocks, particularly mid-tier and explorers with growth potential. Jurisdictional risks, especially in countries like Mexico, are highlighted as critical considerations.
Rubino also stresses building personal resilience through community ties, skill development, and owning productive assets.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Framing This Flation3:49 - Oil's Role & Energy Price9:36 - Deflationary Scenarios16:06 - Zero Rates & Q.E.20:35 - Inherited Problems & Trump22:50 - PMs & Tariff Policies27:04 - Oversold Markets29:28 - Gold Fundamentals31:28 - Gold Silver Ratio33:15 - Silver in a Recession?36:20 - Investment Advisors & Metals40:13 - His Focus in Miners45:46 - Take Profit Guidelines48:10 - Mexican Gov't Policy50:53 - Other Opportunities?55:17 - Staying Resilient57:18 - Wrap Up
Guest LinksSubstack: https://rubino.substack.comBooks: https://tinyurl.com/5buyvy6v
John Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops. He founded the popular financial website DollarCollapse.com in 2004 and sold it in 2022, and now publishes on Substack. -
Tom welcomes back Tim Price, Director at Price Value Partners. The discussion begins around the importance of filtering information in today's overwhelming media landscape. He suggests turning off legacy media and instead seeking alternative sources like Substack or Twitter for deeper insights. Price warns against over-financialization and the risks it poses to economic stability, advocating for a return to fundamental principles such as value investing and staying within one's zone of competence.
He highlights the current geopolitical chaos as a critical moment, noting similarities to past crises like the 1930s. Price critiques Keynesian economics, arguing that treating the economy as a machine fails to account for human behavior. He also discusses the collapse of trust in institutions, particularly after events like Brexit and the Trump presidency, which have led to increased skepticism among voters.
Price underscores the role of gold as a reliable store of value during uncertain times, contrasting it with the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies. He advises investors to focus on long-term strategies, avoid getting spooked by short-term market fluctuations, and resist the urge to follow every financial fad.
Price stresses the importance of emotional discipline in investing, referencing stoicism as a key trait for navigating volatile markets. He also touches on the destructive impact of unaccountability among elites, comparing it to historical precedents that led to societal destabilization.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - News Cycle Avoidance4:50 - Finding & Filtering Info7:42 - Confirmation Bias12:37 - Economic Ivory Towers19:28 - Sapiens - Yuval Harari22:45 - Repeating Cycles & Problems27:46 - Consequential Times33:06 - Fragility & Chaos Theory35:52 - Multiflation & Bad Economics37:34 - Gold Signs & Revolution42:44 - Rumors & Market Reactions48:00 - Age of Unaccountability50:28 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:X: https://x.com/TimPrice1969Website: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/War On Cash: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/war-on-cash/Articles: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/commentaryTim's Podcast: State of the Markets
BooksTim's Book (Amazon): https://www.amazon.ca/Investing-Through-Looking-Glass-Irrational/dp/0857195360
Book Recommendations:180 Degrees (Amazon): http://tinyurl.com/3vjvpnud
Tim Price has worked in the capital markets for over 30 years. A graduate of Christ Church, Oxford, he spent a decade as a bond specialist before going on to serve as Chief Investment Officer at three separate wealth management firms.
Tim has been shortlisted for five successive years in the UK Private Asset Managers Awards program and was a winner in 2005 in the category of Defensive Investing. He is now co-manager of the VT Price Value Portfolio, a fund investing in Benjamin Graham-style value stocks, and specialist value funds, from around the world. He also co-manages bespoke private client portfolios.
Tim writes for MoneyWeek Magazine and The Spectator, and his weekly commentaries are freely available at the Price Value Partners website. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back J.E.S. to delve into the complexities of the current economic landscape, highlighting several critical issues. JES begins by challenging the notion that rising job numbers indicate economic strength, arguing instead that they may reflect desperation as people are forced to work due to financial hardship and soaring living costs.
A significant focus is placed on inflation, which J.E.S. explains has not decreased but rather slowed its growth rate. This distinction is crucial, as it clarifies that inflation remains a persistent problem despite appearances of improvement. Additionally, the discussion touches on the Friedman Lag effect, where interest rate changes take time to influence the economy, and their impacts are now becoming evident in areas like the stock market and debt markets.
The conversation also addresses the trap of the debt market, emphasizing the unsustainable levels of personal and national debt. J.E.S. warns that the U.S. could face a default as interest payments escalate, particularly with the national debt at around $37 trillion. Furthermore, the potential domino effect of weaker economies failing before the U.S. is considered, which could exacerbate global financial instability.
J.E.S. underscores the importance of creativity and education in addressing these challenges, advocating for innovative solutions and a better understanding of economic principles. He believes that fostering creativity can lead to groundbreaking answers, while accessible education is essential to empowering individuals to think critically about economic issues.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Jobs and Economics6:54 - Do Fundamentals Matter?13:16 - Consumers Tapped Out & Jobs16:44 - Rising Rates & Lag Effects27:22 - Currency Dominos & Dollar31:55 - Debt Slaves or Producers40:00 - Differences & Inflections44:55 - Generational Issue & Gov't48:50 - Education & Insanity54:50 - Solutions & Creativity59:28 - Reading Recommendations
Guest Links:E-Mail: [email protected] Book Link: https://tinyurl.com/bdz9eue2Economics In One Lesson - Henry Hazlitt: https://mises.org/library/book/economics-one-lesson -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Keith Weiner for a discussion on the growing interest in gold as a hedge against economic instability and the risks associated with fiat currencies. Weiner highlighted that while some investors are drawn to gold due to its rising price momentum, others view it as a long-term insurance against the flaws inherent in government-backed money.
He explained that governments often borrow without a clear plan to repay, leading to an unsustainable debt situation. This has led individuals and countries to seek alternatives like gold, which is seen as a stable store of value unaffected by monetary policy or political whims. Weiner also touched on the concept of "zombie credit," where corporations struggle to service their debts, particularly in the face of rising interest rates.
The conversation delved into the geopolitical implications of de-dollarization and how countries are increasingly recognizing the limitations of relying solely on the US dollar for trade and reserves. Despite efforts by governments to create alternative currencies or payment systems, Weiner argued that these initiatives often fail due to a lack of trust and cohesion among nations.
Additionally, Weiner discussed the impact of tariffs on global trade and their effect on debt servicing, noting how such policies can exacerbate financial instability. He also explored the differences between gold and silver markets, emphasizing that gold is more attractive to institutional investors as it offers a hedge against broader economic risks without the same level of volatility or storage challenges.
Throughout the interview, Weiner emphasized the fundamental drivers behind gold's rise, including the decline in confidence in fiat currencies, the increasing debt levels globally, and the search for safe-haven assets. He concluded by noting that while gold faces short-term corrections, its long-term bullish trajectory remains intact due to ongoing structural economic issues and the relentless demand from both individual and institutional investors seeking stability amidst uncertainty.
In summary, the interview underscored the role of gold as a critical hedge against an increasingly unstable financial landscape, driven by flawed monetary policies, geopolitical tensions, and the search for safe-haven assets.
Talking Points From This Episode0:00 - Introduction0:38 - 2025 Gold Outlook7:25 - The Dollar Vs. Gold13:20 - Fiscal Responsibility19:46 - Dollar System & Debt25:58 - Usefulness of Tariffs?30:25 - Fed & Inflation Fight35:49 - Rates & Defaults39:18 - Perfect Storm for Gold?40:54 - Gold Vs. Silver Demand45:00 - Metal Demand & London51:20 - Gold Spreads & Traders53:42 - Gold Bull Outlook56:14 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/RealKeithWeinerWebsite: https://monetary-metals.comWebsite: https://goldstandardinstitute.netFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/keith.weiner.5
Keith Weiner is the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, an investment firm that is unlocking the productivity of gold. Most people regard gold as a dry asset, to lock away in a vault, incurring storage fees. Many are waiting for it to rise in price.
Keith and Monetary Metals are on a mission to change this.
Gold should once again serve to finance productive enterprises and extinguish debts. The dollar performs one of these functions, but not the other. Bitcoin cannot finance anything, as no business can borrow a currency that’s expected to go up a hundred times. Gold is the one thing that fills both roles, par excellence.
Keith writes and speaks extensively, based on his unique views of gold, the dollar, credit, the bond market, and interest rates. When he is not working on the business, he is developing his theory of monetary science, and an arbitrage theory of economics.
Keith also serves as founder and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. His work was instrumental in the passing of gold legal tender laws in the state of Arizona in ... -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes Florian Grummes back to the show to discuss his outlook for silver, gold, and the broader economic landscape. Grummes, a veteran technical trader and analyst, set a target of $50 per ounce for silver by late spring 2025, noting that silver often lags behind gold but tends to surge at the end of a bull market. He highlighted silver's industrial demand, particularly in the solar and electric vehicle sectors, as key drivers for its price appreciation. Grummes also pointed to physical silver shipments from London to New York as a sign of an impending spike.
Grummes emphasized the role of macroeconomic factors, including central bank policies and geopolitical tensions, in shaping precious metals markets. He warns that while gold has reached record highs, significant volatility could emerge if stock market corrections deepen. Grummes also touches on the importance of seasonality, suggesting that summer months might see reduced trading activity.
Discussing mining stocks, Grummes acknowledges their underperformance relative to metal prices but expressed optimism about future gains, particularly as larger producers with strong margins begin acquiring smaller companies. He stresses the importance of scaling in and out of positions to manage risk effectively.
Grummes concludes by emphasizing the psychological aspects of trading, urging listeners to take responsibility for their decisions and learn from past mistakes.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:49 - Silvers Behavior & Upside5:04 - Phys. Demand Bottleneck9:47 - Risks & Volatility16:05 - Seasonality & Metals20:02 - Caution & Taking Profits23:10 - Physical Vs. Trading26:30 - Signposts of the End33:08 - Gold Bugs & Objectivity36:00 - Dollar Impact on Metals39:37 - Geopolitical Risks & Ukraine45:23 - Lag with Mining Equities52:13 - Taking Profits56:02 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://www.midastouch-consulting.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/floriangrummes/Twitter: https://twitter.com/FlorianGrummesSubstack: https://substack.com/@midastouchconsultingSeeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/author/florian-grummesTelegram: https://t.me/MidasTouchConsultingFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/MidastouchconsultingFree Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/d5Euf
Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, mentor, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 30 years of experience in financial markets. Florian is the founder and managing director of his company Midas Touch Consulting, which is specialized in trading & investments as well as consulting, analysis & research with a focus on precious metals, commodities and digital assets.
Via Midas Touch Consulting he is publishing daily and weekly gold, silver, bitcoin & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental/macro and sentiment analysis into one often accurate conclusion about the markets. -
Tom welcomes Jeff Clark back to the show! Jeff is the Founder of TheGoldAdvisor.com and author of the new book "Paydirt.". Jeff discusses the current state of the mining industry. He emphasizes that while gold is in a bull market, mining stocks have lagged behind, creating an opportunity for investors and highlights historical trends where mining stocks eventually outperform gold and expressed optimism about future gains.
Clark discussed the financial health of major producers, noting significant increases in earnings and free cash flow due to rising gold prices. This cash influx could lead to increased M&A activity, benefiting juniors and explorers. However, he cautions investors to expect pullbacks in the market and advised maintaining a diversified portfolio with a mix of seniors, developers, and juniors.
Jeff also touches on uranium and copper, noting their bullish fundamentals despite recent price corrections. He encourages investors to focus on companies with strong management, favorable jurisdictions, and strategic growth plans. Additionally, he shares his insights on portfolio management, advising readers to take profits at key milestones while maintaining core positions in promising stocks.
He wraps up by expressing confidence in the mining sector's future, urging metals investors to stay informed and prepared for upcoming opportunities.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - State of the Industry2:52 - Cycles in Bull Markets5:50 - Sector Rotation Catalysts7:55 - July 4th & Gold10:02 - Gold Equities & Pullbacks12:50 - Bonds & Other Investments14:03 - Large Producers & M&A18:20 - Majors & Retail Investors24:10 - Juniors & Upside Potential26:22 - Managing Risks28:03 - Copper Rise & Tariffs?31:39 - Uranium Thesis & Price33:07 - Uranium Pullback36:30 - Portfolio Rebalancing39:13 - Date Don't Marry Miners40:42 - Newsletter42:51 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://thegoldadvisor.comX/Twitter: https://x.com/TheGoldAdvisorWebsite: https://goldsilver.com
Jeff Clark is an esteemed figure in the precious metals industry, serving as the Founder and Editor of The Gold Advisor. With a distinguished background as a metals and mining analyst, author, and speaker, Jeff is widely regarded as a global authority on precious metals. His deep-rooted connection to the field stems from his family heritage, including an award-winning gold panner father and ownership of mining claims across California, Arizona, and Nevada.
Jeff's professional journey began in 2007 when he started as an analyst at Doug Casey’s firm. From there, he carved a unique path by focusing on investing in gold and silver, combining his analytical expertise with a passion for writing to establish himself as a leading voice in the sector.
In addition to founding TheGoldAdvisor.com, Jeff has authored Paydirt!, available on his website. He is also an active participant in the industry, frequently speaking at precious metals conferences and serving on the advisory board of Strategic Wealth Preservation in Grand Cayman, which specializes in bullion storage.
Jeff's achievements reflect a lifelong dedication to understanding and investing in precious metals, solidifying his reputation as both an expert and a trusted resource in the field. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Professor Vince Lanci, MBA Finance and Publisher of the Goldfix Substack, and all-around nice guy for a discussion into the complexities of gold and silver markets, particularly focusing on shorting positions in ETFs like PSLV and SLV. Lanci explains that these metals are ideal for carry trades due to their indestructible nature, allowing banks to borrow and lease them easily. However, he highlights how increased physical demand, driven by central bank repatriation and tariffs, has strained this system, leading to potential short squeezes.
Lanci discusses the differences between gold and silver markets, noting that while gold benefits from central bank backing, silver lacks such support, making it more vulnerable to supply shortages.
He connects the rise in lease rates for silver to these market dynamics, suggesting that higher demand and logistical challenges are driving prices upward. Tom also touches on the impact of tariffs, which Lanci believes will further boost precious metal prices by accelerating de-dollarization. Additionally, Lanci addresses the shift in bank reports towards recognizing physical gold demand, particularly from central banks, as a key driver of price movements.
Lastly, Lanci notes that financial institutions are increasingly recommending exposure to gold and silver miners, indicating a broader trend of investor interest in these sectors.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction2:00 - ETF Shorts & Hard Facts15:26 - PSLV Trade Vol. Chart18:40 - Silver & Short Spikes23:24 - Musical Chairs?25:34 - Naked Shorting Limits?29:09 - Silver Lease Rates31:35 - Silver/Gold Logistics40:50 - Silver Squeeze Process42:27 - Tariffs & Demand Catalysts48:23 - April Tariffs & Metals53:36 - Bank Reports & Gold1:06:16 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Special Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisadesWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://x.com/SorenthekLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://x.com/boobsbullion
Vince Lanci, a seasoned finance professional, has served as Managing Partner at Echobay Partners LLC since 2008. His expertise spans over three decades in metals trading, option analysis, and technology development.
In recent years, Mr. Lanci's insights have been sought after by industry legends. He was invited to be a resident expert on precious metals and option analysis for Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project. In 2017, he co-authored a paper on Energy Volatility with Professor Robert Biolsi at the University of Connecticut.
Prior to his current role, from 2004 to 2008, Mr. Lanci served as Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC. During this tenure, he managed the long-short and volatility arbitrage portfolios for the parent Limited Partnership fund.
From 1993 to 2003, Mr. Lanci was the proprietor of Berard Capital LLC, where he led a team of option marketmakers. His earlier career included stints at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff from 1987 to 1993, providing him with a solid foundation in finance.
In 2000, Mr. Lanci co-founded Whentech (originally named Upperhand Technologies LLC) with David Wender. As chief architect of the "Pit-Trader" user interface logic, he played a pivotal role in the company's inception.
Mr. Lanci's thought leadership extends beyond his professional engagements. He contributes regularly to Zerohedge, BBG, and RTRS. His expertise has also been showcased at Mondo Visione and NYC Mines & Money conferences. A firm believer in level playing fields for investors, he advocates for transparency and fairness in financial markets. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Doomberg, head writer for the Doomberg Substack, to discuss a range of topics including Trump's presidency, national debt challenges, energy policy, and global geopolitical dynamics.
Doomberg begins by analyzing Donald Trump's first 58 days in office, highlighting his whirlwind pace of executive actions. He notes that Trump is fulfilling many promises but acknowledges the limitations of relying on executive orders, which can be undone by future administrations. Doomberg expresses concern about the long-term effects of policy whiplash on industries with lengthy planning cycles, emphasizing the importance of predictable governance for capital investment.
The conversation shifts to the national debt and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's challenges in refinancing $6.7 trillion of maturing debt. Doomberg criticizes Janet Yellen's management of the debt maturity curve, comparing it to practices seen in emerging markets before crises. He suggests that Trump's team is navigating a delicate fiscal situation, potentially leading to a short but deep recession to reset the economy ahead of midterm elections.
Doomberg explores unconventional strategies like creating a crypto reserve or revaluing U.S. gold holdings to alleviate debt pressures. He also discusses the potential for tax reforms and spending cuts.
The Doom Bird discusses energy policy under Secretary Chris Wright, praising his business acumen and alignment with pro-energy industry stances. The Lifting of LNG export restrictions and the expected surge in energy production could position Trump's administration as friendly to business despite the risks of policy volatility.
Doomberg also examines global trade dynamics, particularly U.S. - Canada relations under Mark Carney's leadership and potential tariffs as a revenue source.
The discussion extends to geopolitical tensions, including Trump's approach to Ukraine, NATO, and potential conflicts with Iran. Doomberg questions the feasibility of military interventions and suggests that economic leverage, such as energy supplies, might play a more significant role in resolving conflicts than direct confrontation.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:55 - Trump Accomplishments?4:30 - Yellen & Debt Servicing7:28 - Debt Solutions/Crypto?11:55 - Gold Revaluation?14:14 - Tariffs, DOGE, & Tax Changes23:04 - Energy Policy Changes27:08 - Tariff Revenue?29:19 - Trade Wars & Canada34:37 - Carney Conspiracy38:29 - Ukraine Thinking43:04 - Dismantling NATO45:26 - E.U. Energy & Military50:06 - Military Might51:34 - Iran Considerations53:42 - BRICS Path Forward?57:13 - Competing Ideas & Truth1:02:53 - Content Treadmill1:07:27 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:X: https://x.com/DoombergTWebsite: https://doomberg.substack.com
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems. -
Tom welcomes James Anderson back from SDBullion to discuss the significant developments in the precious metals market. James delves into the recent all-time highs for gold at $3,000 per ounce, highlighting its historical significance and the potential implications for investors.
Anderson emphasizes that breaking through key price levels like $1,000, $2,000, and now $3,000 is not just a numerical milestone but often signals shifts in market dynamics. He recalls past volatility, such as the 2008 financial crisis when gold prices plummeted before rebounding, illustrating how these events shape investor behavior and market trends.
James also touches on the broader economic context, including the role of central banks and the potential for a paradigm shift in asset valuation. Anderson suggests that gold is likely to reassert its dominance over traditional assets like stocks and bonds, driven by factors such as debt levels, inflation, and geopolitical tensions.
Silver's recent market dynamics are explored as well, with Anderson noting significant physical withdrawals from London markets and the impact of tariffs on supply chains. He advises investors to monitor lease rates and physical inventories, warning against the risks of ETFs that may not fully reflect underlying asset availability.
Anderson also addresses cultural differences in precious metals investment, highlighting how Eastern economies, with historical experiences of currency devaluation, tend to prioritize gold and silver as reliable stores of value. In contrast, Western investors often lack this historical perspective.
Looking ahead, Anderson discusses potential future developments, including the possibility of a gold revaluation and the importance of long-term planning and diversification, advocating for a prudent allocation into precious metals.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - $3000 Gold Significance4:14 - Long-Term Technicals8:04 - LBMA Gold Situation10:59 - ETFs & PSLV Audits16:58 - Western Metals Apathy18:50 - Fort Knox Psyop21:05 - Eastern Buying23:56 - Nominal Highs & Inflation26:12 - Doubts & Tariffs29:00 - Gold Confiscation Risk?32:18 - Platinum Metals?34:52 - 2025 Investment Advice39:26 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/jameshenryandYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/sdbullion/videosWebsite: https://sdbullion.com/Blog: https://sdbullion.com/blogJames Book: https://sdbullion.com/21st-century-gold-rush-book
A bullion buyer years before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, James Anderson is a grounded precious metals researcher, content creator, and physical investment grade bullion professional. He has authored several Gold & Silver Guides and been featured on the History Channel, Zero Hedge, Gold-Eagle, Silver Seek, Value Walk, and many more.
Given that repressed commodity values are now near 100-year low-level valuations versus large US stocks, investors and savers should buy and maintain a prudent physical bullion position. Continued stimulus and unfunded promises will only debase the dollar further. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back the always forthright Chris Irons host of Quoth the Raven podcast host and author of QTR's Fringe Finance Substack.
The conversation covers a wide range of topics, from economic policies to mental well-being. They discuss the inefficiencies of government-run services compared to private sector alternatives, using examples like FedEx versus the Postal Service. They also critique the Federal Reserve's role in managing economic crises, arguing that bailouts have conditioned people to expect comfort without facing necessary consequences.
Chris expresses concerns about market bubbles in cryptocurrencies, equities, and real estate, warning of potential cascading effects from options trading, ETFs, and leveraged loans. The duo also discusses the possibility of a significant market crash and its psychological impact on individuals who are conditioned to expect bailouts.
The conversation touches on social issues like gender rights, emphasizing the importance of common sense and moderation. Chris advocates for personal responsibility and delayed gratification as essential coping mechanisms against societal overindulgence and the culture of instant gratification.
Tom and Chris highlight the importance of mental preparedness and resilience, drawing parallels between economic discomfort and personal well-being. They stress the value of practicing discomfort and mindfulness to build psychological resilience, referencing stoic philosophies and the benefits of introspection.
The discussion ends on a cautious note, acknowledging the potential for significant societal change but expressing uncertainty about whether it will lead to positive outcomes like fiscal discipline or greater social responsibility. They conclude with reflections on wealth, happiness, and the importance of inner peace, suggesting that true contentment often lies within personal mental fortitude rather than external circumstances.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:47 - Crazy News Flow6:12 - Perceptions, Media, & Mkts20:27 - Competing Ideas & Debate31:17 - Economic Theory & Outlook34:20 - The Inequality Gap44:50 - Slow Decline & Taxes53:50 - Spending Cuts & Reactions1:08:00 - Four Year U.S. Outlook?1:14:50 - Bandaid Fixes & Comfort1:16:40 - Personal Responsibility1:22:10 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxUo55-0ScpOQNdug8FCzzA/videosPodcast: https://quoththeraven.podbean.comSubstack + Discount: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=92245385X: https://x.com/QTRResearch
Chris Irons is the host of The Quoth The Raven Podcast, a show dedicated to discussing Fringe Finance topics and exploring the boundaries of investment decisions. Irons has spent years reading the news and has developed a strong opinion on the mainstream media's ability to drive a narrative which serves the interests of a small minority. His focus is to provide content that is rarely found elsewhere and to curate content from people he respects. Irons is not afraid to challenge the mainstream narrative or succumb to it when it serves the collective best interests.
Chris is not providing investment advice and the content on The Quoth The Raven podcast/substack is not meant to be taken as such. Anything mentioned should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell anything. -
Craig Hemke from TF Metals Report discusses macroeconomic trends, gold markets, and investment strategies. He emphasizes the importance of central bank demand for gold, driven by geopolitical tensions like Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has led to record purchases over the past three years. This demand has created a physical floor under the gold market despite rising interest rates and a strong dollar.
Hemke also explores the role of the Federal Reserve, noting its significant impact on liquidity and market expectations. He discusses potential quantitative easing measures due to high government spending and deficits, which could further inflate asset prices. The yield curve inversion in 2024 was highlighted as a precursor to economic challenges, with the Fed's policy shifts influencing currency and metals markets.
The conversation touches on the complexities of investing in precious metals, particularly silver, which straddles commodity and monetary roles. Hemke warned against passive investments like ETFs, advising investors to do thorough research when selecting individual mining stocks. He stresses the importance of a diversified portfolio and cautions against overexposure to any single asset.
Contrarian investing is addressed, with Hemke encouraging prudence rather than extremism. He advises increasing allocations to gold gradually, emphasizing long-term strategic positioning rather than timing market dips. He concludes by reiterating the role of gold as a hedge against a debt-based monetary system nearing its limits, urging investors to focus on preserving purchasing power through physical ownership.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Macrocast & C.B. Demand5:42 - Fed's Importance?8:00 - Moar Q.E. Coming?11:25 - Fed & Drastic Action12:55 - State of Equity Mkts16:37 - Tariffs & Big Picture23:54 - U.S. Gold Revaluation?32:26 - Gold Supply & Demand?35:35 - It's Fine39:00 - Silver Considerations41:48 - Miners & Prod. Costs47:13 - Contrarian Mindset49:55 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/TFMetalsWebsite: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribeArticle: Inversion/Reversion Macrocast - https://goldseek.com/article/inversion-reversion-2025-macrocast
Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Then, disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services," he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, Craig is not a soothsayer, a psychic, or a witch, but, after all these years, he has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets." -
Tom welcomes back Matthew Pipenburg from Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland for another thoughtful swap-fest. They began by discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and its impact on military spending, which has diverted resources away from domestic priorities like healthcare and education. They pointed out that many countries are facing significant debt issues, leading to a shift away from the US dollar as the primary reserve currency. This trend has increased interest in gold as an alternative asset for reserves.
The role of gold was a key topic, with Matthew noting that while revaluing gold could offer short-term benefits but it wouldn’t resolve the underlying debt crisis. Central banks, especially those in BRICS countries, have been increasing their gold holdings as a strategic reserve, reflecting growing doubts about fiat currencies. Matt criticized high military spending relative to domestic investments in the US, arguing that this imbalance is unsustainable.
They also talked about central bank operations and market manipulation. Quantitative easing has led to market distortions and bubbles, while market manipulation risks eroding trust in financial systems. The conversation turned to global shifts, with BRICS countries gaining influence through their increased use of gold as a reserve asset. Tom highlighted the likelihood of significant market corrections due to high valuations and economic instability.
Finally, Matthew emphasized the need for informed, fact-based discussions rather than partisan debates, urging critical thinking about government policies and encouraging engagement with diverse viewpoints from contrarian sources like Jeffrey Sachs.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - Peace & Euro War Drums17:53 - Cold War & Rationality26:30 - Trump & The Liberal Shift29:00 - Negative Real Rates34:18 - Capital Controls & CBDCs37:49 - Cognitive Dissonance?41:25 - Yellen & Short Term Debt45:53 - Adjustment Period52:23 - Gold Going Mainstream?58:04 - Revaluing U.S. Gold1:02:02 - U.S. Gold Holdings?1:08:15 - Canadian Leadership1:10:30 - Conclusion & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The world faces significant economic challenges, including high debt levels, shifting reserve currencies, and the weaponization of financial instruments.
Gold is increasingly seen as a safer asset in uncertain times, with central banks diversifying their reserves.
There's an urgent need for balanced, fact-based discussions to address complex economic and geopolitical issues.
Guest LinksX: https://x.com/GoldSwitzerlandWebsite: https://goldswitzerland.com/Website: https://vg.goldArticles: https://signalsmatter.com/Book (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c
Matthew Piepenburg is a Partner of Von Greyerz and the author of the popular book, "Rigged to Fail". Matt is fluent in French, German, and English. He is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA), and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely-respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behavior of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.com. -
In this podcast episode of Palisades Gold Radio, your host Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis. A length discussion on the outlook for silver and gold, stock market trends, and broader economic factors ensues.
Oliver explains his $250 target for silver as realistic, noting historical precedents where silver outperformed gold during bull markets. He highlights the spread between silver and gold, emphasizing that silver could reach 2% of gold’s price, a significant move from its current level of around 1.13%. This would translate to a substantial increase in silver prices if gold rises significantly.
Oliver believes gold will lead the way up but notes silver and gold miners may outperform due to their lower valuations relative to gold. He shows charts indicating gold’s strength against the S&P 500, with gold currently at about 45% of the index compared to a peak of 60%. Gold’s momentum remains strong despite minor pullbacks.
Oliver warns that the stock market bubble is set to burst. He expects asset managers to shift funds into gold and related assets as the market weakens. The gold miners index (XAU) is undervalued compared to gold, suggesting significant potential gains once investors begin to reallocate capital.
Oliver discusses the dollar’s potential decline, noting a critical momentum level that could signal a broader downtrend. A weaker dollar would likely boost commodities and gold, though he cautions against tying this directly to political factors like Trump’s policies.
Reflecting on his book on anarcho-capitalism, Oliver suggests a shift away from statism toward market-driven solutions. He speculates that events like the stock market crash could catalyze significant policy changes, including tax reforms or central bank abolition.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:34 - Silver & Targets6:25 - Flight To Gold vs S&P9:33 - Gold Weekly Momentum12:17 - Equities & Bubbles16:18 - The Decline Grind?18:18 - XAU & Miners24:06 - Equity Selloff & Metals27:16 - Dollar Effects & Momentum33:30 - WTI Crude & Economic Reality38:25 - Cuts & Changes in Nations44:40 - Pain Points as Catalysts?48:18 - Large Long-Term Trends51:10 - DOGE & Ayn Rand54:06 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSAAmazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5Free Report email: [email protected]
Email MSA above, and they will send you this week's report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.
J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton's International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City's Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton's Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank's Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism. -
Tom welcomes back Chris Rutherglen to take a very deep dive into a few gold charts. Chris is a PhD Scientist/Engineer, Level 3 CFA, and Publisher of the Gold Investor Research Substack.
Chris explains how the long-term outlook for gold prices involves several key factors that influence its trajectory over time. One important aspect is the mid-cycle level of gold, which reflects the balance between the amount of gold available above ground and the overall money supply. When the money supply increases, this can raise the mid-cycle level, potentially leading to higher gold prices. Currently, gold is trading above this mid-cycle line, suggesting that a correction downward might be possible in the near term.
Chris shows his charts for the debt-to-money supply ratio. Historically, this ratio has remained relatively stable at around 2.5% from the 1920s up until the late 1970s. However, after the financial crisis of 2008, it began to rise and has been declining since then. If this downward trend continues, it could drive gold prices higher as more money would be needed to support existing debt levels.
Looking at long-term historical patterns, there is a suggestion that gold might reach a high point around $8,000 to $10,000 in the early 2030s. This projection is influenced by ongoing monetary expansion and economic conditions that favor safe-haven assets like gold.
Despite these indicators Chris, expects predicting the future of gold prices with certainty is challenging due to a variety of factors, including inflation rates, global political and economic events, and policies set by central banks such as the Federal Reserve. Key elements to watch include quantitative easing measures and the levels of government debt, both of which play significant roles in shaping the growth of the money supply and their impact on gold demand.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:04 - Timeframes & Cycle Lengths7:52 - Long End Curve?11:58 - Levels and Zones21:00 - Gold Mid-Cycles Levels24:04 - Cycles & Calendar Periods30:15 - Probabilities & Targets32:35 - Gold & Equities Pullback33:42 - S&P GDP Ratio + CPI37:03 - Gold & Inflation42:35 - Gold Silver Ratio44:46 - Silver Price Outlook46:55 - Silver Timing & QE's51:16 - HUI Miners Vs. Gold54:15 - Major Miner Charts1:00:43 - Patience & Majors Costs1:07:30 - Long-Term Gold Timeline1:10:42 - All Sector Debt/US M21:18:12 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/CRutherglenSubstack: https://giresearch.substack.com
Chris Rutherglen is a private investor whose primary occupation is in science & engineering with a focus on novel semiconductor devices for microwave and mm-wave applications. He began investing in the precious metal space in 2003 and has done well following a value-oriented investment approach. Although he has never been employed in the finance/investment field professionally, he did complete level 3 of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) program in 2011. Chris has a BS in physics from the California Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Electrical Computer Engineering from the University of California, Irvin -
Tom welcomes back Jan Nieuwenhuijs to explore the dynamics of the global gold market and its implications for global monetary systems. Key topics include the movement of gold from London to Comex, driven by concerns over tariffs and geopolitical shifts. Jan explains that this flow reflects both physical arbitrage and strategic reshuffling of gold reserves, with banks moving gold into the U.S. for potential future use or resale in Asia.
The discussion also delves into the lack of transparency around U.S. gold audits, particularly at Fort Knox. Jan highlights issues with the auditing process, noting that compartments have been reopened multiple times without proper justification, raising questions about the integrity of the audits. He argues for an independent audit to ensure accountability and reassurance regarding the nation's gold holdings.
Another significant point is the valuation of U.S. gold reserves at $42 per ounce, a relic from the Bretton Woods era aimed at demonetizing gold. Jan suggests that revaluing gold could unlock substantial funds but warns this would be inflationary. He also touches on the role of gold in China's financial strategy, noting that while official reports understate their purchases, they are actively accumulating gold to diversify away from the dollar.
The conversation concludes with Jan emphasizing the importance of tracking central bank gold buying and developments in alternative payment systems like the BRICS M-Bridge, which could challenge the dollar's dominance.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:54 - Tariffs & LBMA Flows5:30 - Gold Demand & Lease Rates9:01 - Import Code Changes10:30 - U.S. Gold Reserve Audits20:14 - Time Req'd to Audit21:37 - Encumbrance Concerns24:35 - $42 U.S. Gold Valuation26:36 - U.S. Dollar Vs. Gold29:09 - Revaluing & Funding32:10 - Sovereign Wealth Fund?33:25 - Uncertainties & Credit37:50 - Deleveraging & Dollar41:00 - Eastern Perspective44:32 - China's Gold Holdings46:30 - Gold & Dollar Flight49:49 - Concluding Thoughts51:30 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/JanGold_Website: https://moneymetals.com
Originally a sound engineer in the Dutch movie industry, Jan Nieuwenhuijs has devoted the last decade to in-depth gold market research. His commentary and analysis has earned him international recognition as a top expert on the Chinese gold market, the COMEX futures market, the London Bullion Market, and the Turkish gold market. At Money Metals, he writes about the international monetary system, central bank gold policies, the mechanics of the global gold market, the gold price, and economics in general. - Vis mere
