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The only time pollsters really know whether their work is accurate is on election days. This time around, the surprising outcome of the presidential race didn't mean the polls were off -- it's more of what we've come to expect in a 50-50 electorate. We're doing our first pass at this as we wait for full data to do a deeper dive.
Then, we finish with a fun fact that St. Louis residents might not love...
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In this episode of Poll Hub, we dive into the fresh and final battleground numbers from Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Not only do these states form the so-called Blue Wall that any modern Democratic presidential candidate has to win, they're also home to three of the most competitive US Senate races. What do our final polls of these Great Lakes States reveal?
Then, our insider's guide to Election Night. As the results come in over the course of the night, which states and which districts are we watching? We'll give you the goods.
Finally, you may not be able to see it, but we have our costumes on! We bring the season to a close with our final spooky fun fact of the month! Joined by our former Poll Hub producer and creator of the spooky fun fact series, Athen Hollis, to help our hosts answer this scary question.
AND...Election Day is November 5th, so don't forget to vote!
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We just released new numbers from the battleground states of Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. While very little has changed since our polls from those states a few weeks back, there is a striking finding when we look at how voters are thinking about non-Presidential races on some ballots.
Then, are authoritarian regimes really on the rise? We talk with author and professor @AnneMeng_ from @UVA about her research on the rise, or lack thereof, of far-right leaders around the world. Is the threat here in the U.S. real, inflated, or imaginary. Or all three?
Finally, Halloween is just one week away, and we stick with our theme and wrap the show with another frightening fun fact.
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For decades, there's been a difference between how men and women vote. Not only which candidates they choose but how many register to vote and then show up at the polls. These so-called gender gaps are wider than ever. We take a look at recent polling data to explore why the political gulf between men and women is growing.
Then, we explore the potential of year-round schooling in America. Dr. Carol Rinke, Professor of Education at @Marist College, joins us to discuss how this model has been implemented and the benefits or challenges associated with transitioning away from our usual academic calendar. And, what about summer vacation!?!
Finally, we stay on theme this month for our fun fact. Fruit instead of candy? Gross! What do you expect when you go out on Halloween night?
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This week, we take a closer look at fresh polling from the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and Texas, where numbers might indicate closer races than expected...especially in these three states' critical senate races.
Then, a recent @WSJ piece revealed how certain regions of the United States have become increasingly reliant on federal funding like Social Security, Medicare, or grants. We're joined by one of the reporters behind the story, @AaronZitner, to break down the findings and explain how these areas are often strongholds for Republican voters.
Finally, a surprising number of people believe it might be possible to communicate with the dead. We keep the spooky season alive with our fun fact this week!
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This week on Poll Hub, we have two new polls for you! How do New Yorkers feel about Mayor Eric Adams and his federal indictment? Should he stay or should he go? Plus, we dive into the data from our brand-new national poll on the Presidential race with our partners NPR and PBS. Spoiler alert! The gender gap is incredible!
Then, the two in our twofer, we continue talking with Marist College President Kevin Weinman about how the college prepares students for life after graduation and the impact of AI on education. We brought on Caroline Smith and Luke Sassa, two Marist seniors, to ask some tough questions!
Finally, spooky season is upon us! We got our spell book and cauldrons out to craft up the fun fact this week!
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Higher education has been in the news A LOT lately between protests, student loan debt, and questions about the value of a degree. Amidst this, confidence in colleges and universities has been shrinking among Americans. To shed some light on the issue, we brought in two Marist seniors for our interview of Marist College President Kevin Weinman. They have some tough questions and Weinman has a particularly interesting perspective on higher ed and the Dow Jones Industrial Average... This is part one of a two-parter!
We're also diving into some key state polls, focusing on our new numbers out of North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. Harris and Trump are this close in all three states even when the down ballot senate and governor's races lean strongly Democratic. What's going on?
We finish with a fun fact that begs the question, who came up with these answers? The most popular TV genre is...
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While Donald Trump and plenty of Republicans have argued American elections are rife with fraud, numerous investigations (including some funded and directed by Trump-aligned individuals) have, over the years, shown it to be vanishingly rare in this country. But, election fraud IS real in some democracies around the world. What's the truth about election fraud versus voter fraud? Dr. Melissa Gaeke, Director of the Center for Civil Engagement and Leadership at Marist College joins us.
Plus, our first polls of the cycle from Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin give a look at just how close and important this so-called "Blue Wall" is to both campaigns. Harris is up or tied with Trump in all three and two have critical senate races. Ours a part of a slew of polls. How do people know what to believe?
Finally, ever dreamt of being in the political spotlight? Our fun fact looks at how your past could influence your decision.
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Did Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump accomplish what they needed to do in Tuesday night's debate? We break down the key moments from the matchup and look ahead to what's next for the Harris and Trump campaigns.
Then, where does the presidential contest stand? We provide expert analysis of the shifts in candidate support, according to the new NPR/PBS News/Marist national poll.
And, we wrap things up with a fun fact that might leave you looking for a nap. Not to worry, it won't put you to sleep!
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Public opinion polls taken just after Labor Day in presidential election years are, perhaps surprisingly, VERY accurate in predicting the winner on Election Day...of the popular vote at least. So, despite a very noisy and busy two month stretch to the finish, the history of polling indicates what we see now is most likely what we'll get in November.
Then, gender dysphoria is on the rise among Americans, but the treatments for it are hotly debated. Some politicians advocate cutting off access to these treatments for people under 18 -- and a few advocate cutting it off for everyone -- but what do Americans think? And, how much of what we hear is factual versus scare tactics? We talk with Dr. Jack Drescher of Columbia University.
Finally, we look at two questions from the 2000s about reality TV. And in a rare moment, all four co-hosts agree on our answer!
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We explore the shift from the Great Resignation to the Big Creation, where millions of Americans have quit their jobs, not just because they are unhappy, but to pursue better opportunities or even start their own businesses. We talk to Jim Garter from Gallup to see what this movement could mean for the future of work in the U.S.
Then, we look at the resurgence of nuclear energy with Marist College Professor Jessica Boscarino. Specifically, the way public support is growing despite the lingering memories of disasters. We dive into the reasons behind supporting nuclear energy and consider whether it can overcome its past and play a role in clean energy.
Finally, if you were an iPod, just how American would you be? This week’s fun fact will make you think twice!
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The Democratic National Convention has been picture-perfect for the party, injecting a lot of energy into the race just as Kamala Harris pulls ahead in most national polls. But the big question remains: can they count on a post-convention bounce?
At the same time, Project 2025 — a “comprehensive blueprint designed for the next conservative administration" — has become a weapon for Democrats and a bother for Republicans. Despite Trump’s recent attempts to distance himself from it, the plan continues to attract attention and support among conservatives. Just how many people are truly aware of Project 2025?
Finally, we bid a bittersweet farewell to our longtime producer. After many episodes, we take a look back at some of their favorite Poll Hub moments as she prepares to sign off from her final Poll Hub episode.
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When you think of Botox, your mind may wander to aging Hollywood stars who've become strange versions of their younger selves. But data shows Botox isn't just for people with wrinkles any longer. Botox is trending for pre-wrinkled younger people, and it may be a mixed bag.
Then, who's using cannabis? Since the drug has been legalized in most of America, we wanted to know how it's going. R. Lorraine Collins of @UBuffalo joins to check in on the state of legal weed. With so much rapid change, who is using it now and how much are they using?
Finally, what are those college kids drinking?! Well, this week's fun fact tells us what was the popular college beverage was back in 1939!
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Kamala Harris has picked Tim Walz as her running mate and the DNC is right around the corner. The race is on and our new poll with NPR and PBS News shows things have changed quite a bit since Joe Biden left the race.
Then, speaking of vice presidential candidates, JD Vance's comments about "childless cat ladies" has made waves. Plenty of people were offended but there is truth to the notion that there are more childless Americans than there used to be. Michigan State's Jennifer Watling Neal joins to discuss her research of Americans who've chosen not to have kids.
And, finally, a sendoff for one of our favorite student producers, Delaney Hayes, who is off to law school and then ruling the world!
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We're asking a crucial question: Is it news or nonsense? With more people getting their news from social media platforms and AI-produced visuals flooding the zone, there is a lot of room for misinformation. This week, we bring Marist Journalism professor Kevin Lerner back on the show to help us break down how to spot misinformation and find credible news sources.
Then, tens of millions of Americans use this platform for entertainment and endless scrolling, but, for some, it's a full-time job. The U.S. government is pushing the Chinese-run company to sell TikTok or face a ban in the United States, but what does this mean for everyday Americans? We are joined by TikTok influencer Maddie (m00bie) Schrader to discuss the ban President Biden signed into law and its implications for both users and influencers.
We finish with a Lee-less fun fact. Can we even do that? It's about something so ubiquitous that we barely think about it, even though most of us had never heard of it 30 years ago.
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Joe Biden ended his campaign and Kamala Harris very quickly became the almost-certain Democratic nominee. The next day, we asked Americans in a one-day survey with NPR and PBS News what they thought. The results say a lot but we're also discussing why a one-day poll can tell us only so much.
Then, the COVID pandemic exposed deep flaws in our country's nursing homes, but what is being done to fix them? We talk with R. Tamara Konetzka from the University of Chicago to get a better sense of what's wrong with the system and whether the huge batch of ageing boomers might change that.
Finally, what will you be watching during the Paris Olympics? We find out what America has to say in this fun fact!
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The Republican National Convention is over and the assassination attempt on Donald Trump is already fading from the headlines, so what to make of the next set of polls? Our NPR/PBS News survey released last week helps show why you probably shouldn't read too much into the next set of polls...even ours!
Next, we're looking at cryptocurrency. You've probably heard of Bitcoin but, if you're like many Americans, you don't really know what crypto is or what is can do. So... we have Bina Ramamurthy @BinaUB from @UBuffalo on to break down cryptocurrency and the future of virtual money! And. if you're looking for more, check out her Blockchain ThinkLab and Coursera courses on the topic.
Finally, this week's fun fact covers the best time of year -- summertime -- and the best food of all. Ice cream! What's your favorite flavor? It starts there and we go way afield.
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There has been a whirlwind of post-debate polling around Biden vs. Trump, but how accurate are they? We have @FiveThirtyEight's @gelliottmorris on with us to sort the good from the bad...and all the in-between.
Next, natural disasters only seem to be increasing with climate change, but are we prepared to give people warnings about them? We have @k_e_gray @unewhaven on to talk about our potential vulnerabilities as a nation facing disasters.
And, as summer hits its stride, step outside. Do you smell sunscreen, grass, or bbq? This week's fun fact tackles the smells of summer.
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How will the Supreme Court's historic ruling on Presidential immunity from criminal prosecution impact the race for the White House? And, how with the historically bad debate between Biden and Trump impact the election? We're looking at the early polls and exploring whether ANYTHING will change what people think of these two historically unpopular candidates.
Then, as we celebrate Independence Day, we're looking at how Americans think about patriotism and the flag. And...no surprise...it's complicated by partisan differences.
Finally, do you know how many nicknames there are for the American flag? This week's fun fact looks at the fan favorite!
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Our latest NPR/PBS News poll asks a hypothetical: Do you want your kid to grow up to be president? Perhaps after this week's debate, you won't be surprised what a majority of Americans think.
Then, Harvard's David Deming helps us sort through the growing debate about whether college is still worth it as costs -- and debt -- soar.
Finally, summer is concert season and this week's fun fact posits another hypothetical: who would you see if they were still touring?
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