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Thursday 6th June 2024
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US equities hit new highs today and bond yields continued to fall. The Bank of Canada cut rates overnight with indications there will be more to follow. They pipped the ECB to the post, with their cut expected later today. Equities and bonds have been buoyed by positive sentiment, helped by a surprisingly strong ISM Services number for the US, after a weaker ADP jobs report – combined they add to the case for cuts from the Fed. NABs Ken Crompton joins Phil today to talk through all this central bank action, as well as digging into yesterday’s Australian GDP data.
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Wednesday 5th June 2024
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Bond markets continue their rally, with yields down again this morning. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s in part down to the JOLTS data in the US overnight, which showed job openings slowing. That’s pushed forward expectations for Fed rate cuts slightly. He also points to the election result in India, which saw the PM lose his majority, which could impact future growth and, therefore, energy demand. We’ve seen commodity prices coming down again, hitting the Aussie dollar. Today we get Australia’s GDP for Q1. What should we expect? And could the bank of Canada be the first G7 central bank to cut rates in this cycle? We’ll find out later.
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Tuesday 4th June 2024
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Longer end yields pushed higher overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says it was in part down to softer manufacturing data from the US, although there’s a chance markets have overreacted to what was a pretty mixed picture. For example, whilst the Manufacturing ISM fell, the Manufacturing PMI, for the same month, released at the same time, rose. Markets are hoping, though, that softer data on the back of falling inflation means more cuts can be squeezed in by the Fed at the back end of the year. There’s also discussion on the Australian minimum wage decision, why oil has fallen so sharply overnight and the importance of US job openings data tonight.
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Monday 3rd June 2024
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Europe’s core inflation number rose slightly on Friday. That won’t change the ECB’s bolted-on decision to cut rates this week, but the likelihood of more than one other cut this year is diminishing. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Friday’s Core PCE Deflator number in the US was lower than last time, but if it had been 0.002% higher it would be the same as last time. Not enough to change expectations from the Fed, with speakers now in the blackout period ahead of the June 14 meeting. Today |Australia’s wage award decision will be watched, and GBP for Q1 is out this week too.
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Friday 31st May 2024
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Assuming he stays out of prison, Donald Trump has an even chance of winning the next Presidency. What does that mean for the Fed? Trump has often argued for the need to keep interest rates low, so he’s probably not too happy with the higher for longer strategy being used to fight inflation right now. We also know he wants to challenge the independence of the central bank. But how would that work exactly?
On this Weekend Edition Mary Rosenbaum, Managing Director of the Observatory Group, an analyst firm in Washington specialising in geopolitics and macroeconomics, gives her take on what President Trump 2.0 could do to achieve his low-interest aims. Will he try and replace people in the Fed, or change the Federal Reserve Act so the government has more control over how the Fed operates, with Treasury members on the board perhaps. Or will Trump resort to bullying the Fed to see things his way?
Mary talks through the various scenarios and what the implications could be on bonds, interest rates and the dollar. Some useful insights that’s worth half an hour of your weekend.
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Friday 31st May 2024
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Inflation is taking a long time to come down, everywhere it seems. Europe reports its CPI today, but the numbers from Germany and Spain have already shown it’s taking longer than expected. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about expectations around the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Deflator, out later today. With Fed speakers doing their best to pus expectations further back a high number here could be the ammunition needed for those expected no cuts this year, and maybe a rise. That’s an argument made by Bill Dudley on Bloomberg today. Yet there are many signs of a weakening global economy, the US included, which will give hope to those expecting cuts sooner rather than much later.
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Thursday 30th May 2024
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Australia’s monthly CPI reads are always to be treated cautiously. Nonetheless, the surprise rise in inflation did create a response on Asian markets, pushing Aussie yields higher. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks about how weaker bond demand in US 7-year note auction added to the bond sell-off. Australia wasn’t the only inflation surprise. German CPI also rose. The ECB is wedded to a cut next week, but will they deliver the 60bp priced in for this year? In New Zealand the question for today is can the government meet all their budgetary promises without adding to the inflation worries.
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Tuesday 28th May 2024
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There were two bond auctions in the US overnight – for 2 year and 5 year treasuries. Both saw weaker demand than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton if investors are weary of the size of bond supply this year. Meanwhile US consumer confidence rose more than expected. Yesterday we saw weaker retail numbers than expected, but part of that can be explained away by the timing of Easter. Today there's the CPI number for Australia, although it’s not expected to influence the RBA’s sense of timing.
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Tuesday 28th May 2024
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It’s been a quiet 24 hours with the UK and US on holiday, with the bond and equity markets closed in each place. But Europe was open for business, although the German IFO numbers offered little to get excited about – staying in the same place as last month. One ECB speaker said after the June rate cut, the central bank will retain ‘maximum optionality’ – central bank speak for we’re not sure what happens next. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril guides us through the data, and the commentary from the ECB and the BoJ. Australia’s retail sales numbers are out this morning, along with producer prices for Japan, and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report out tonight in the US.
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Monday 27th May 2024
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Friday was a quiet end to the week, but the NSDAQ still managed to touch a new high. Bond markets closed early in the US, though, in readiness for a long weekend, that will see a slow start to this week. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says trade was light so we can’t draw any definitive conclusions about too much. Even Nobel economist Paul Krugman is unsure where things are heading. He said he could argue either way as to whether or not interest rates will remain higher for longer, and whether R* rate should return to 2019 benchmark levels, or has it moved higher. Does anyone know? After a quiet start, this week picks up with the US PCE deflator on Friday, and Australian retail sales and CPI prints before that.
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Friday 18th May 2024
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NVIDIA is now the third biggest listing in the US, with a market cap of 2.3 trillion dollars. Their earning results this week were an upside surprise for revenue, margins and forward guidance. So how far has the US tech growth story got to go? Phil talks to NABTrade’s Gemma Dale about the rise and rise of tech. Is it pulling investment away form Australian domestic stocks? They cite some interesting research from NAB that demonstrates how super funds have been selling US shares because the growth has been too strong and they need to rebalance their portfolios. Retail investors, of course, aren’t limited in the same way, so should they hold on for the ride? And what part does Australia play in the tech and environment megatrends? Can we expect some high growth companies as well?
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Friday 24th May 2024
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Stronger than expected PMIs in the US – for manufacturing and services – have pushed bond yields higher. Equities, which started the session strong on the back of the NVIDIA earnings, have also fallen sharply today as pricing for rate cuts by the Fed gets pushed back further. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the data for the US does need to continue to soften for the Fed to deliver on cuts, and these numbers went against that trend. In Europe the latest ECB wages data also challenged expectations for moves beyond the already signalled June cut.
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Thursday 23rd May 2024
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The UK Prime Minister stood out I the pouring rain to announce a July 4 election for the UK, months ahead of expectations. Perhaps he doesn’t think the economy will improve so he might as well go sooner. It comes on the same day as the latest UK CPI numbers, which didn’t fall as far as expected. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether this could all push rate cuts out further. There’s a worry in some quarters that the Fed could be in the same boat, with FOMC minutes just out. In NZ Adrian Orr said the RBNZ even considered a rate hike for yesterday’s meeting. Meanwhile, NVIDIA’s latest earnings showed
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Wednesday 22nd May 2024
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Equities were quite contained a day out from the NVIDIA earnings, although the S&P did hit another all time high. Copper prices continue to rise from its new high on Monday. Phil asks Ray what’s driving this – real factors or a speculative bubble? European wages data came in high, so much so that you’d be wondering why the ECB is so committed to a June rate cut. Canada saw inflation growth slow, and with the RBNZ tonight Phil asks Ray for his take on the order of bank cuts.
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Tuesday 21st May 2024
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There’s an absence of solid data. Maybe that’s why equity markets have reverted to AI-hype, ahead of NVIDIA earnings later in the week. There’s also been significant gains in the price of silver, gold and copper. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about why precious metals are doing so well. None of this distracts from the commentary from central banks, with more from the UK and US tonight, as well as the minutes of the last RBA meeting locally. And the first fo the week’s significant CPI prints – first off, Canada.
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Monday 20th May 2024
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It’s a quiet start today after a week that finished slowly. Skye Masters discusses how bond yields have been slowly rising, unwinding the moves after the surprise CPI growth earlier in the month. Central banks still seem to be doing their best to warn markets not to expect rate cuts too soon. Isabel Schnabel from the ECB did just that on Friday, warning that, although a June cut was appropriate, a ‘cautious approach is needed beyond that’. If Friday was quiet, expect more of the same today, although data picks up later in the week, including CPI for UK, Canada and Japan, and the latest RBNZ meeting, plus NVIDIA earnings.
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Friday 18th May 2024
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There’s been a lot said about the Labor federal budget this week. One of the big questions is whether the energy subsidy alongside the tax cuts and rent assistance, will do enough to bring down inflation. In this Weekend Edition JB Were’s Sally Auld argues that, whilst we might see a reduction in headline inflation, the government’s fiscal expansion is at odds with the RBA’s monetary policy and it is likely to delay any moves down in interest rates. The extra government spending might be worthwhile if it can be shown to improve productivity, but its not clear how that will happen. There is recognition, however, that these are unusual times and the need for greater onshoring and a need for governments to fast track support for emerging sectors. But how?
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Friday 17th May 2024
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Even though equities fell form their record highs of yesterday, that wasn’t until after the Dow passed the 40k mark for the first time ever. JBWere’s Sally Auld is surprised at the confidence in US equity markets, particularly as data is showing more signs of softness and Fed speakers continue to talk about waiting longer for cuts. JPMorgan’s James Dimon also expressed concerns about the inflationary impact of the rising US deficit. There’s also discussion about yesterday’s Australian employment numbers, which saw the unemployment rate rise more than expected.
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Thursday 16th May 2024
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US CPI came in broadly as expected overnight, but the markets reacted anyway. Perhaps they feared another upside surprise. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the slowdown in retail numbers also raised expectations slightly that the Fed will squeeze in two rate cuts before the year is out. But what about the RBA? The wages data yesterday was helpful, but not enough to move the goal posts. What about the employment numbers today?
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Wednesday 15th May 2024
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Markets are waiting for US CPI later today. There was some market reaction to he producer price numbers from the US, which NAB’s Gavin Friend described as sticker shock. The core number for April was higher than expected, but markets quickly retraced steps when the March number was revised down. In short, not such a big move after all. UK employment numbers were a little stronger than expected in March, along with wages data. Australia gets its wage inflation data today, as markets come to terms with last night’s Federal Budget.
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