Episoder
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Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his best betting practices and discusses his Premier League Matchday 4 picks. Subscribe for more!
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Introduction
1:44 Who is Ted Knutson?
2:20 Working With Pinnacle.com Products
3:26 Working at Brentford/Midtjylland & SmartOdds
4:05 Founding StatsBomb
4:25 Present Day — TheTransferFlow.com
4:58 Variance Betting Principles
5:21 Discount Bookies > Bonuses
8:20 Price Shop
10:37 Working with Models & Knowledge
12:35 Why Early Season is Tricky
13:54 Your Bets are your own
14:47 Market Implied (MI) Model
16:18 Be careful about Promoted Teams
17:18 Expected Goals (xG) Model
18:07 Caveats
21:06 Plugs
20:23 Recreational Sports Betting
22:32 Brighton v Ipswich Bet
23:52 Southampton v Man United Bet
25:11 Crystal Palace v Leicester Bet
26:02 Fulham v West Ham No Bet
26:25 Liverpool v Nottingham Forest Bet
27:25 Man City v Brentford No Bet
28:35 Aston Villa v Everton No Bet
29:46 Bournemouth v Chelsea Bet
31:20 Spurs v Arsenal Bet
32:39 Wolves v Newcastle No Bet
33:31 Recap
33:54 Outro
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Ted and Ravi start by discussing a controversial analytics take from someone that's a part of the community. Next, they talk about Chelsea's owner rift and the leaks that suggest a potential buyout may happen. They then get into discussion about Arsenal's injury situation with Martin Odegaard and Mikel Merino set to miss time. And finally, they wrap up with the MLS transfer window and all of the things that you need to know about that, including biggest additions and misses of the window.
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 - Intro
01:48 - Is analytics for player recruitment solved?
03:18 - every action in football has 3 parts
04:40 - You don't have data for everything
06:15 - Difficulty at scale
07:30 - Different level of information impacting decision makers
09:48 - Evaluating players from lower leagues
11:53 - Player factors impact on transfer success
13:55 - Chelsea's ownership rift
16:13 - Boehly joined and isntantly became Interim Sporting Director
16:58 - Where this confidence comes from
17:43 - 2 captains driving the boat
19:52 - Football clubs run like investment funds
21:46 - Blitzer and Harris make co-ownership work
22:31 - Arsenal's injury situation
23:59 - Small point loses feel insurmountable
25:04 - What would a long-term Odegaard injury mean?
26:06 - Champions League format changes help
26:29 - September International break
29:18 - MLS window rules and time period
30:21 - MLS is paying real money
32:22 - Their offset window creates mismatches
33:45 - Josh Sargent example
35:17 - How MLS can fix this issue
35:58 - Extra problems that come with overseas transfers
37:48 - The profile of MLS Winter signings
38:28 - NWSL eliminating the draft
39:45 - MLS academies draining talent out of the draft
41:12 - Balancing International roster spots
42:13 - Big free agent signings - Giroud and Reus
42:50 - Discovery Lists
44:16 - Griezmann rumours
47:15 - MLS connection with South/Latin America
48:15 - Spurs weird deal for Johnny Cardoso
49:20 - More additions to the MLS this year
51:10 - Players the U.S. and Canada excel at creating
52:26 - Deals that fell through because of the deadline mismatches
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Manglende episoder?
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Ted and Ravi discuss the summer windows for Manchester United, Southampton, Tottenham, West Ham and Wolves. They start with United's expensive, but sensible, window and how their new signings may fit in the squad. Then comes newly promoted Southampton, who made additions at goalkeeper and to their defense in the hopes of staying up. Tottenham paid up for Dominic Solanke and Archie Gray, while West Ham spent too much on a number of different moves. Finally, we discuss Wolves window and what essentially feels like them playing the lottery.
Ugarte Newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/manuel-ugarte-manchester-united-transfer-rumours-analysis
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
0:36 Man United Overview
1:50 Man United Finishing Top 4
2:14 Squad Needing Change
2:59 Resisting Overpaying
3:58 Joshua Zirkzee
4:11 De Ligt
4:50 Too Many Ajax Players?
5:16 Overpaying For Leny Yoro
5:30 Window Review
6:37 Manuel Ugarte
8:00 United Outgoings
11:10 Southampton Overview
11:59 Aaron Ramsdale
12:31 Making Loans Permanent
13:02 Mateus Fernandes
13:40 Yukinari Sugawara
14:00 Brereton Diaz
15:02 Some Confusing Signings
15:40 Southampton Outgoings
15:51 Southampton Overall Grade
16:22 Spurs Overview
16:56 Dominic Solanke
18:30 Overpaying for youngsters?
19:46 Incomings Grade
19:52 Spurs Outgoings
21:38 West Ham Overview
22:30 Risky Transfer Strategy?
23:42 Niclas Fullkrug
26:19 Max Kilman
26:45: Jean-Claire Todibo
27:41 Wan-Bissaka &
28:09: West Ham Outgoings
28:42 Outgoing Grades
28:57 Wolves Overview
29:24 Wolves Outgoings
29:39 Andre
30:00 Sam Johnstone
30:23 Strand Larsen
31:36 Wolves Overall Grade
32:21 Outro
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On this episode, Ted and Ravi discuss the transfer windows for Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle, and Nottingham Forrest. They start with a confusing window for Leicester and move to Liverpool in their first window under Arne Slot. Next up is Manchester City, who made some good moves and got good value for Julian Alvarez. Then comes Newcastle, who had possibly the worst window of any team not named Chelsea. Finally, they discuss Nottingham Forest's VERY busy window.
Link to the newsletter for part 3:https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/liverpool-gearing-massive-changes
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 - Intro
00:48 - Leicester City Inbounds
01:41 - Bilal El Khannouss
02:55 - Caleb Okoli and Odsonne Édouard
03:42 - Oliver Skipp and Harry Winks
05:06 - Facundo Buonanotte's loan
06:45 - Leicester's Overall Grade
07:02 - Using early games to predict relegation
09:13 - Liverpool's transition window
11:09 - Lack of new contracts for their 3 stars
15:00 - Long-term view vs. short/medium term
16:00 - When to move on from stars
17:45 - Salah changing his game as he ages
20:28 - The decision for TAA/ Real Madrid leveraging stars
22:15 - Zubimendi in January?
22:56 - Manchester City's Window and Sávio
23:30 - Gundogan joining from Barcelona
24:45 - Selling Julian Alvarez
26:47 - Madrid coming for Rodri?
27:58 - Newcastle's Window
28:13 - Their lone savior?
29:26 - Not overpaying for Marc Guehi
31:49 - Clubs that are good at extracting value for players
34:20 - Nottingham Forrest's busy window
35:43 - Evaluating their window on face value
36:33 - Inbound grade for Forest
37:32 - Did they solve their issues from last year?
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Chelsea's transfer window was a disaster, so make sure to listen until the end to hear our thoughts on what is probably the worst window for ANY club in many years. We're grading 5 teams in alphabetical order on the second episode of our offseason transfer grades, starting with Crystal Palace and their head-scratching decision to not sell Marc Guehi to Newcastle. Then, Everton's Poor window to go along with their lackluster start of the season. Next comes Fulham, who sold João Palhinha for 50m, but chose to reinvest some of that money into older players. And finally, before we go in on Chelsea, we touch on Ipswich's risky transfer strategy and how it sets them up for the future, even in they get relegated.
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Timestamps -
00:00 - Intro
02:06 - Crystal Palace's Window
02:42 - Failing to sell Marc Guehi
03:36 - 2 new centerbacks
04:04 - Oliver Glasner as manager
04:18 - Will Hughes
04:53 - Teams Scrambling to find a backup goalkeeper
05:18 - Joachim Andersen
05:53 - What will they get out of Eddie Nketiah?
07:38 - The Grade for Crystal Palace
08:09 - 5M for Jordan Ayew??
08:21 - Moving on to Everton
09:02 - Blowing a 2-0 lead in the 87'
09:40 - Jarrad Branthwaite and Jacob O'Brien
10:45 - Everton's struggles this window
12:27 - Their squad mismanagement
13:58 - Everton get their Grade
14:26 - Fulham's window
15:37 - 50M+ for João Palhinha and where they spent the money
16:39 - Spending money on older players
18:03 - Elite players can age gracefully
20:05 - Emile Smith-Rowe and Joachim Anderson
20:48 - Grades for Fulham
21:05 - Ipswich's window
22:12 - the need to change their playstyle
23:48 - Ed Sheeran and Taylor Swift
24:13 - The 3 options Ipswich had entering the Premier League
25:44 - Risky transfers that set them up for success
27:14 - Ipswich's lack of outgoings
27:51 - Chelsea's crazy window
28:41 - Ravi's biggest issue with Chelsea's window
30:11 - A fix for load management?
30:44 - Chelsea operating like an investment fund
33:33 - A huge risk on Pedro Neto
35:16 - Similarities to Barcelona
36:13 - Where Chelsea deserve credit
37:07 - Chelsea's assumptions make backfire
39:44 - How did Chelsea grade?
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Ted and Ravi discuss their transfer grades for Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Brighton and Brentford. We start with Arsenal, who made some solid signings this window, but failed to improve their attacking depth and we disagree a bit on the quality of the incoming transfers. We also grades for the next 4 Premier League teams in alphabetical order. Namely, Villa's PSR driven offseason and some good business by them in the offloading of Douglas Luiz and Moussa Diaby, but did the incomings substantially improve the Champions league team? Next, Bournemouth's big sale of Dominic Solanke and where they might replace his production. Finally, we finish with why we rated Brentford's window a mild success, and discuss how Brighton's aggressive approach might pay off for them. Enjoy!
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 - Intro
03:00 - Arsenal Discussion
04:3 - Arsenal's Grades
05:58 - Riccardo Calafiori and Ben White
06:28 - Mikel Merino
07:36 - Adding Sterling
08:24 - The need to improve the #9 position
09:00 - Osimhen allegedly offered to Arsenal
09:41 - Aston Villa Weirdness
11:34 - Ian Maatson
12:48 - The Jaden Philogene Saga
13:20 - Douglas Luiz and Moussa Diaby
15:10 - Villa Grade
15:18 - Bournemouth and their Stadium
16:10 - Offseason additions (players & staff)
19:10 - Replacing Dominic Solanke's Production
21:31 - Grades & Above average talent for Bournemouth is a win
22:33 - Brentford
22:42 - Selling Ivan Toney to Saudi and Fabio Carvalho
23:47 - Igor Thiago
27:56 - Jayden Meghoma
28:48 - Brentford Grades
29:13 - Brighton
30:11 - Brighton's Net Spend this window
31:48 - Not investing in their Academy
32:06 - Yankuba Minteh
32:44 - Mats Wieffer
34:48 - Fabian Hürzeler and the risk of a 31-year-old manager
37:46 - Challenging for CL spots?
38:49 - Brighton Grade
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Ravi and Patrick discuss Federico Chiesa signing with Liverpool, his role, and the potential to move out wide. Next, they move to Darwin Nunez potentially leaving Liverpool, Arsenal being a possible landing spot, and Arsenal lacking attacking depth. They then touch on Newcastle's interest in RB Leipzig defender Mohamed Simakan after being unable to finish their Marc Guehi transfer, comparisons of the two players, and Newcastle's hopes for the season. Lastly, they finish with Dani Olmo's fantastic Barcelona debut, and the injury to 17-year-old midfielder Marc Bernal.
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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Napoli's move this off-season, including new manager Antonio Conte, and how what Victor Osimhen's price is now. Next, they move to Juventus and their acquisition of Francisco Conceicao and Nico Gonzalez. They also touch on Dominic Calvert-Lewin being linked with Chelsea, Barcelona FINALLY registering Dani Olmo, and what the future may look like for Endrick at Real Madrid.
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 - Intro
03:00 - Napoli's moves this Summer
04:40 - Conte as Napoli's Manager
05:56 - The addition of Lukaku
08:03 - Scott McTominay
09:50 - Coaching Blindspots
13:12 - Billy Gilmour
13:45 - David Neres
17:41 - New Centerbacks
20:01 - Osimhen's Price
22:49 - The issues PSG are facing
23:56 - Juventus targeting wingers
24:30 - Francisco Conceicao
28:23 - Nico Gonzalez
30:43 - The financial risk of amortization
31:02 - Liverpool's approach vs Juve and Napoli
37:09 - Chelsea and Dominic Calvert-Lewin
46:34 - Could Arsenal be in for DCL?
51:24 - Dani Olmo Registered by Barcelona
54:49 - Endrick's Future
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On this episode, Ravi and Patrick start off with Ilkay Gundogan leaving Barcelona to return to Manchester city in what could be Pep Guardiola's last season. Then, they discuss Georginio Rutter moving to Brighton, Brighton's Transfer strategy, and Sander Berge moving to Fulham. They finish with Oliver Skipp's move to Leicester and Enzo Maresca speaking out on Chelsea's training sessions despite their huge squad.
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 - Intro
01:15 - Gundogan returns to City and Pep's Last Season?
09:44 - Georginio Rutter to Brighton/ Brighton's transfer Strategy
20:44 - Sander Berge to Fulham/ Fulham's squad
33:04 - Oliver Skipp and why did Leicester City spend 25m on him?
38:25 - Enzo Maresca speaks on how Chelsea manages their training
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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Manchester City vs. Chelsea, Raheem Sterling's comments on his omission from the squad and Joao Felix's transfer. They then touch on Real Madrid struggling in Kylian Mbappe's first La Liga game and their tendency to play through the left side, as well as Manchester United's narrow victory over Fulham.
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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Matthijs de Ligt and Noussair Mazraoui joining from Bayern Munich, Kinglsey Coman's possible loan to Arsenal or Barcelona, and Liverpool Stars entering the final year of their contracts. Plus Arsenal's attempt to sign Mikel Moreno, why South American players may be more likely to join a Saudi side than Europeans, and more!
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 - Intro
2:05 - De Ligt and Mazraoui join United
15:28 - Kinglsey Coman's loan move
24:35 - Arsenal's attempt to sign Mikel Merino
31:25 - Liverpool Stars entering the final year of their contracts
39:42 - The impact of Saudi on decision making
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On this episode, Ali Maxwell, co-host of the Not The Top 20 Podcast, joins Patrick and Ravi to discuss the promotion and relegation battles in the championship, managerial changes and their impacts, and players to watch in this Championship season. They also get into Wayne Rooney at Plymouth, manager performance vs. perception, and surprises after the first week of games.
Not The Top 20's EFL Preview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jy8OiJPgh5E
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NTT20: http://www.youtube.com/ @NotTheTop20
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 - Intro
1:37 - Managerial changes in the championship
6:10 - Plymouth sign Wayne Rooney
12:00 - Manager performance vs. perception
15:45 - Style vs. Results
18:27 - Promotion and relegation battles
21:12 - Newly relegated teams and how championship teams stack up
23:00 - Promoted/relegated teams adapting to a new style of play
25:30 - How will teams from League 1 cope?
29:37 - Players to keep an eye on
34:33 - Which new transfer/young player will break through?
36:10 - Any Surprises after week 1?
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Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, breaks down market implied models, the different odds styles in various countries, and shares picks for the Premier League title, top four, and relegation battles. He also dives into what's next for Variance Betting and shares stories from his time at Pinnacle and as a professional gambler.
Link to Odds Checker: https://www.oddschecker.com/
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 - Introduction
1:32 - Ted's time at Pinnacle
4:04 - the goal of Variance betting
5:45 - models + humans
8:00 - Behind the scenes at Pinnacle
13:26 - Learning from your mistakes
14:04 - The market implied model
16:09 - Value in the winners market
17:10 - Different odds styles
18:41 - Back to the winners market
19:56 - The Arsenal wager
21:43 - Liverpool's value
22:28 - The top four
23:56 - Bankroll management
25:00 - Manchester United's value
25:55 - Newcastle and Chelsea's value
27:33 - The relegation market
28:30 - Southampton's relegation chances
28:50 - Ipswich's Odds
29:12 - Leicester losing their coach
29:33 - Crystal Palace
30:41 - Wolves chances
30:58 - Everton to stay up?
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Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, discusses his history with gambling, his plans for his new venture Variance Betting, and shares picks for the upcoming championship season. Subscribe for more!
Sites mentioned:
Bet105 - https://bet105.eu/en?clickid=QiMBLJfA-Vpn7ty2Gsq9MGNd7ZgqdRLk&sportId=220
Prime Sports: https://www.primesports.com/
Pinnacle: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/
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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Martin Zubimendi being linking with Liverpool and his similarities to Xabi Alonso, Dani Olmo's strange move to Barcelona, and Newcastle being linked with Marc Guehi. They also get into Maximilian Beier's potential move to Dortmund and Mikel Arteta hiring pickpockets to steal from his players to "keep them on their toes"
Link to the Sid Lowe article on Zubimendi that Ravi mentioned: https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/sep/08/real-sociedad-martin-zubimendi-xabi-alonso-manchester-united?CMP=share_btn_tw
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Introduction/Leagues Cup discussion
03:45 - Martin Zubimendi linked with Liverpool
07:55 - Zubimendi's versatility and potential impact
09:23 - Comparison to Xabi Alonso
15:27 - Dani Olmo's curious move to Barcelona
16:12 - Olmo's long injury history
17:38 - Barcelona's problem finding youth minutes
19:52 - Olmo ISN'T a winger
23:14 - Barcelona refuse to learn
25:01 - Max Beier moving to Dortmund
29:01 - What position is best for Beier
29:36 - Marc Guehi to Newcastle
32:10 - Concern with 1v1 defending
36:04 - Mikel Arteta's pickpocket saga
38:22 - The wrong time for a lesson
46:35 - Outro
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In this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss the Striker market. They go into Julian Alvarez' transfer to Atletico Madrid and his fit in Diego Simeone's system, Dominic Solanke signing with Tottenham, Samu Omorodion joining a packed Chelsea squad, and West Ham completing a move for 31-year-old Niclas Fullkrug.
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss Kylian Mbappe purchasing a stake in Caen, Jadon Sancho's uncertain future, and Conor Gallagher's fit with Atletico Madrid. They also get into the importance of sell-on clauses and how teams utilize them, Teun Koopmeiners' next move, and Jake O'Briens move to Everton.
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On this episode, Ravi and Patrick discuss Victor Osimhen's strengths and his fit at different clubs, Viktor Gyokeres potential move to the Premier League and how much he should cost, and Chelsea signing their EIGHTH goalkeeper. They also dive into Celtic's Matt O'Riley play in the preseason, Federico Chiesa open to leaving Juventus, and more.
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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Ederson potentially leaving Man City and possible replacements, Liverpool's drop in midfield quality and their search for a defensive midfielder, and Aston Villa's ambitious transfer window and possible Joao Felix addition.
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#ederson #manchestercity #mancity #mosalah #liverpool #liverpoolfc #joaofelix #epl #premierleague #soccer #football
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss Liverpool's efforts to replace the aging Mo Salah, Kevin De Bruyne agreeing to terms with Al-Ittihad, and the search for the next USMNT manager. They also get into PSG and Bayern Munich's interest in Desire Doue, their Arsenal fandom, Cody Gakpo and future plans for gambling content.
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