Episoder
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick start with Mo Salah's goal vs. Southampton and how good Liverpool need to be to win the title this year. Then comes Man City, whose 4-0 loss to Tottenham marks their 5th straight defeat. City need help, but can they hang on until the January window? Next, Ruben Amorim led United to a 1-1 draw with Ipswich in his first game as manager. How much impact has he had already, and how long will it take for United to turn things around? Finally, the episode ends with discussion of Arsenal vs. Forest, Everton vs. Brentford, and Joao Pedro's wonderful assist vs. Bournemouth. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:24 - An Interesting Segue and Mo Salah’s goal
03:16 - A Bad defensive performance from Liverpool
04:15 - Liverpool are on the good side of Variation (but they create it too)
05:39 - Liverpool don’t need to be THAT great to win the title
06:36 - Man City lose their 5th game in a row
07:38 - Kyle Walker is no longer Pep’s get out of jail free card
09:18 - City need 3 players in the January window
11:04 - Tottenham were constantly running at the back four
12:34 - Ruben Amorim’s first match as United manager
13:40 - Amorim’s influence is already showing
14:38 - Who is scoring goals for United?
15:48 - United built through the wingbacks (especially Mazraoui)
17:05 - United will continue to change over the next few weeks
19:43 - Who are the wide attackers that are helping to create for United?
20:52 - Will Gyokeres be the solution? + Should United become Sporting
21:45 - Where will United finish this year?
22:57 - Arsenal vs. Forest
25:20 - Odegaard facilitated the Arsenal attack, which was missing while he was gone
26:56 - Arsenal have to figure out how to attack without relying on Odegaard
27:32 - Arsenal haven’t put games away this season
28:06 - Leads allow teams to transition more
30:16 - Everton vs. Brentford
30:45 - Everton went up a man but couldn’t find a goal
32:45 - Joao Pedro’s assist in Brighton’s win over Bournemouth
33:32 - The angled run from Mitoma was beautiful
34:24 - Fans of big teams only are selling themselves short this season
35:41 - Taking a break Thursday and Friday
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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss the many transfer rumours surrounding Real Madrid. They start with Centre backs, and look at options for both established players and rising young stars. Next, they look at options for right back. Could they promote a youngster from their academy? The conversation moves to Florian Wirtz, who has been linked to Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City. Finally, they end the podcast by discussing if Madrid can take Trent Alexander-Arnold AND Mo Salah from Liverpool, whether any of these transfers solve their Mbappe problem, and if Vinicius will be sold in the coming years.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:47 - Pressing Concern at Centreback for Real Madrid
02:10 - Madrid’s current options at CB
03:43 - Is there an obvious profile for them?
05:03 - Hard to find solutions in January
05:31 - Tchouaméni at CB?
06:04 - 2 groups of candidates we’re hearing
08:28 - Real Madrid won’t throw away this season + how they should approach it
09:35 - Jonathan Tah from Leverkusen
11:28 - Tah plays for Xabi Alonso, who is rumoured to be at Madrid next season
11:49 - Aymeric Laporte
13:27 - Mario Hermoso
14:38 - The information we don’t have
15:24 - The most likely option out of these 3
16:18 - The younger players Real Madrid could be looking at
16:42 - Vitor Reis from Palmeiras
18:22 - A recruiters perspective of a young prospect
20:19 - Madrid’s Brazilian players could make the move easier for Reis
21:51 - Castello Lukeba from RB Leipzig
25:13 - Murillo from Nottingham Forest
28:04 - Does Madrid’s current squad push you to a more established player?
29:23 - Tah’s Leverkusen defensive partner, Piero Hincapié
31:19 - Options for right back?
31:27 - Could Madrid address this through their academy, or is it a response to Barcelona’s success?
31:52 - Asencio as an option
33:16 - Jesus Fortea
34:02 - Do Madrid need to improve their Academy strategy, or is it inevitable with how they handle transfers?
37:17 - Florian Wirtz linked with Madrid, Bayern and Man City
38:29 - Not a great fit for Madrid
39:11 - Guler linked to Arsenal
42:11 - Wirtz makes more sense for Bayern
42:47 - Could Madrid take Trent Alexander-Arnold AND Mo Salah from Liverpool?
43:44 - Madrid would have to sell Rodrygo
44:37 - None of this solves their Mbappe Problem
46:14 - Could Madrid be forced to sell Vinicius?
#realmadrid #transfernews #mbappe #vinicius #rodrygo #ardagüler #wirtz #laliga #championsleague #madrid
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Manglende episoder?
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick dive into transfer rumours ahead of the January window. They start with Joshua Zirkzee, who may already be on the move from United. Then comes Victor Gyokeres, is his agent keeping is name in the news or will he finally make a move? Next up is Jeremie Frimpong, who has been linked to many huge clubs, including Real Madrid, Manchester City, and Liverpool. Discussion of how Manchester City replaces Rodri follows, with Enzo's name thrown out and a possible £100M fee for Baleba? They finish the episode rounding up the rumours with Nkunku linked with United, Murillo to Real Madrid, Kudus to Arsenal, and Samu Omorodion to Barcelona. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:15 - Joshua Zirkzee to leave United?
01:37 - An addition to the podcasts
02:05 - Why is Zirkzee in the news again
03:37 - Will Amorim keep him?
05:21 - Ted’s opinion on what United should do
06:33 - Victor Gyokeres’ agent is keeping the coals hot
08:52 - Ted’s story about previous transfers he
11:41 - Jeremie Frimpong linked to Madrid,Liverpool, and City
12:29 - Everything depends on Trent Alexander-Arnold
13:33 - How Frimpong fits at City and Real Madrid
16:40 - Salah and Trent to Real Madrid?
17:53 - Xabi Alonso rumoured to Real Madrid next season?
19:10 - Will Zubimendi leave Real Sociedad?
21:41 - How much would City pay to get Baleba? + Enzo Fernandez?
22:41 - £100m to £150m for Baleba???
23:34 - Enzo is a good option, but is not fit enough
25:29 - Nkunku linked with United
26:57 - Chelsea would like to pay off their remaining transfer fee for Nkunku
28:32 - Would Chelsea sell him to United?
28:32 - Forest CB Murillo linked with Real Madrid?
29:54 - Mohammed Kudus linked to Arsenal
31:13 - Kudus is versatile, but what is he worth?
33:57 - Kudus would fit great at United
35:10 - Samu Omorodion linked with Barcelona
38:37 - How a data analyst handles incomplete information
39:34 - Ricardo Pepi looking to move from PSV?
41:11 - Pepi’s history of insanity
#manchesterunited #manchestercity #realmadrid #chelsea #arsenal #transfernews #premierleague #epl #rodri #gyokeres #salah #football #soccer
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss Man City losing their fourth game in a row — is it all down to injuries, or do they have bigger issues in the squad? Next, they break down Arsenal vs. Chelsea, who played to a 1-1 draw over the weekend. They dive into Arsenal’s struggles in attack, Maresca’s impact at Chelsea, and Martin Ødegaard’s return from injury. Finally, they analyze the chaos of the Serie A title race, where just two points separate the top six teams. Who are the title favorites, and who should you be rooting for? Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:04 - Man City lose AGAIN
02:04 - A different Man City vs. years past
02:21 - Man City injuries + squad age
03:01 - Brighton’s adjustments won them the game
04:45 - City’s old midfield
05:56 - Brighton’s next 9-figure player?
07:19 - City have young players, but not centrally
07:46 - Can City fix this in January? Or will it cost them the title
09:22 - Liverpool’s youth players are playing well
10:28 - City can’t let their stars play the whole time
11:10 - Creating chances despite losing
11:38 - Nobody has full control this season + Villa vs. Liverpool
12:57 - Teams will drop lots of points this season
15:33 - Man City/Liverpool title odds
18:32 - English teams in the Champions League
19:24 - Arsenal vs. Chelsea
19:39 - Odegaard minutes + called up for Norway again
20:23 - Game breakdown
22:36 - How do Arsenal start attacking again
23:51 - Maresca’s influence + Chelsea in a tight table position
26:07 - Caicedo + a shaky defense
27:21 - Chelsea are bad at set piece execution
28:46 - The crazy Serie A title race
29:37 - The most entertaining league in the world (except for Juve)?
30:03 - Conte and Napoli + Other good coaches in Serie A
31:21 - 8 teams with a positive xG difference
32:03 - Fiorentina are coming from nowhere + Napoli/Juve bad attacking numbers
33:22- Atalanta are the best attacking team + Sarri/Lazio
34:56 - Napoli are not taking enough shots in big games
35:31 - We liked Juve’s transfer window
37:30 - Which teams should you root for? + Zlatan overseeing things at AC Milan
38:45 - Lampard or Mancini to manage Roma?
39:51 - Newcastle dominate Forest
#manchestercity #seriea #premierleague #arsenal #chelsea #liverpool #manchesterunited #newcastle #napoli #juventus #intermilan #acmilan #football #soccer
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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi start by discussing Edu Gaspar leaving Arsenal. What should Arsenal look for in their next sporting director, what names are on the list, and how does Arteta factor into the equation? Next they move to Manchester City’s 4-1 loss to Ruben Amorim’s Sporting CP, Victor Gyokeres’ performance, and City’s dependence on Erling Haaland to score goals. Lastly, they cover Real Madrid losing another game at home, this time a 3-1 defeat to AC Milan. Do Madrid have a politics problem with their lineups, should Endrick and Arda Guler get more minutes, and will Carlo Ancelotti be the manager next season? Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:01:11 - Edu Gaspar Leaves Arsenal
00:01:47 - How big a change is a move like this behind the scenes?
00:04:37 - Jason Ayto to become Interim Sporting Director
00:06:28 - Difficulty finding a Sporting Director at a top team + Edu’s transfer record
00:10:46 - How do Arsenal go about finding a replacement?
00:12:57 - You need someone who is comfortable with disagreements
00:15:59 - Who are the candidates on the shortlist?
00:17:12 - Julian Ward + Txiki Begiristain
00:18:49 - Monchi
00:19:58 - Paul Mitchell
00:20:21 - Arsene Wenger??
00:21:29 - Roberto Olabe
00:24:03 - Personality might be the biggest part of this hire (to stand up to/mesh with Arteta)
00:25:31 - Phil Giles
00:26:14 - How long will Arteta stay at Arsenal?
00:29:11 - Ruben Amorim and Sporting defeat Man City
00:30:33 - Viktor Gyökeres performance + will he be in the Premier League soon?
00:32:22 - Sporting did not play their usual style
00:33:45 - City had problems trying to breakdown Sporting’s defense
00:35:24 - Injuries hurting City + KDB returning
00:38:19 - Overreliance on Haaland + lack of attacking creativity
00:42:37 - How can Brighton take advantage of City’s bad form?
00:45:59 - Weird Medical remedies over the years
00:47:49 - Real Madrid lose at home to Milan
00:48:56 - Did the Ballon d’or debacle hurt Madrid?
00:53:57 - Lucas Vasquez vs Rafael Leao + lack of balance in attack
00:54:44 - No Endrick or Guler used as subs
00:56:14 - Madrid have a problem with “sacred cows”
00:57:28 - Will Ancelotti be Madrid’s manager next season? + Camavinga must start
01:00:57 - Endrick and Guler lacking minutes
01:02:23 - Will Madrid look to buy Joshua Kimmich?
01:03:35 - Ravi = Neo?
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In this episode, Patrick and Ted break down the games from this past weekend. They start at the top of the table, with Arsenal and Manchester City faltering, leaving Liverpool 2 points in the lead. They discuss whether Liverpool can maintain their lead with a tough upcoming schedule, if City can rebound despite their injuries, and whether Arsenal are already out of the title race. Next, they talk about Manchester United's lucky 1-1 draw with Chelsea and how they managed to escape two possible red cards. Finally, they finish with Tottenham's 4-1 victory over Aston Villa and the difficulty of separating the top 13 teams in the Premier League. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:55 - Arsenal,City, and Liverpool over the weekend
01:23 - How Brighton setup against Liverpool
02:34 - How stressful the Premier League is
03:15 - Liverpool weathered the storm then attacked
04:37 - How long Liverpool’s squad has been in rotation
05:43 - Tough schedule ahead for Liverpool
06:21 - Are liverpool favorites or should it still be city?
07:41 - City have a ton of injuries and an old squad
10:16 - Arsenal’ lack of attacking threat vs. Newcastle
11:47 - A bad game for Arsenal and Arteta
13:00 - Are managers too conservative with substitutions
14:07 - Edu Gaspar leaving Arsenal
16:39 - What is the best approach to substitutions?
20:25 - Is Arteta taking more power at Arsenal?
22:31 - Are Arsenal out of the title race?
24:26 - Phil Foden’s added threat for City
26:16 - Manchester United vs. Chelsea
26:40 - United were lucky to not get red cards (Ugarte/Martinez)
30:00 - Defensive breakdowns leading to chances + Why is Robert Sanchez in goal
31:24 - The game from a United Perspective
32:54 - The game from a Chelsea Perspective + Cole Palmer
34:05 - Concern for Chelsea’s defense?
36:10 - Tottenham vs. Aston Villa
37:21 - How managers give their players breaks during the season
38:30 - Villa were unable to contain the match
39:16 - Spurs are GOOD?
39:24 - Hard to separate teams the top 7 and top 13 teams in the table
42:26 - What makes every week exciting in the Premier League
44:00 - Serie A is also BANANAS
#premierleague #liverpool #manchesterunited #manchestercity #manutd #arsenal #tottenham #chelsea #astonvilla #arteta #colepalmer #philfoden
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Ted Knutson shares his insights for EVERY EPL Matchday 10 game and discusses why you MUST wait for the lineups before betting certain games.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:05 - Liverpool vs. Brighton
01:48 - Why you must check the lineup before betting this match
02:22 - Ipswich vs. Leicester City
02:41 - Forest vs. West Ham
03:48 - Bournemouth vs. Man City
04:44 - Newcastle vs. Arsenal
06:13 - Southampton vs. Everton
06:36 - Wolves vs. Crystal Palace
07:03 - Tottenham vs. Aston Villa
09:29 - Manchester United vs. Chelsea
11:31 - Fulham vs. Brentford
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On this episode, Ted and Ravi answer frequently asked questions about getting started in sports analytics using their extensive knowledge and experience in the industry. They get into how to look for a job, the skills you need, and what to expect once you land a job. If you have more questions you want answered, leave them in the comments down below!
Details for Ravi's conference in Houston:
https://americansoccerinsights.com/
Data Contest/Call for Proposals:
https://americansoccerinsights.com/call-for-proposals
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Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:01:01 - How do I get started?
00:04:46 - What skills do I need?
00:21:25 - Where to look for football jobs?
00:23:17 - Apart from football clubs, where are some other places I can find data jobs in football?
00:26:25 - I want to go into football, but I don't have the data skills - where can I learn them fast?
00:35:24 - How can I set myself apart from the crowd?
00:46:00 - The pay seems very low - what can I do about it?
00:51:10 - What's it look to work for these teams?
01:04:52 - What are your biggest takeaways from working in sports?
#dataanalytics #analytics #data #football #soccer #sports #sportsanalytics #premierleague #mls #stats
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss Manchester United firing manager Erik ten Hag. They run down why he had to be fired, Ruud van Nistelrooy as interim manager, and potential names for the job. Then, Ravi joins Patrick to discuss Barcelona's 4-0 victory over Real Madrid over the weekend. They talk about Barcelona's high line causing problems for Madrid, Madrid lacking a holding striker, and if Barcelona can maintain this form for the rest of the season. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:00:47 - United sack Erik ten Hag
00:01:31 - Ruud van Nistelrooy interim manager
00:01:45 - Manchester United’s recent form
00:04:14 - Trends for United
00:04:39 - Could they be better with a better coach?
00:05:39 - What a good and bad manager change process looks like
00:07:24 - The U Curve of coaches
00:10:18 - Could ten Hag’s hurt United?
00:10:56 - Dan Ashworth’s limited early influence
00:11:53 - Who should United hire?
00:12:39 - Pochettino and Tuchel already have jobs
00:13:28 - Could van Nistelrooy stay on?
00:14:29 - Gareth Southgate
00:15:27 - Ruben Amorim
00:15:54 - How do budgets play into the new hire decision?
00:17:51 - Xavi as next United manager?
00:20:05 - Luis Enrique
00:21:12 - Graham Potter
00:23:09 - Eddie Howe
00:24:24 - Mourinho was the most pragmatic of recent United coaches
00:25:05 - Michael Carrick
00:28:44 - Adi Hutter
00:30:57 - Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola?
00:31:47 - Thomas Frank
00:34:08 - The ability of a manager to get player buy-in
00:35:41 - Roger Schmidt and his pressing style
00:37:44 - Julian Nagelsmann
00:39:44 - Should United settle for the least costly option?
00:40:53 - The stress of managing/working for a team
00:41:38 - Ravi joins to talk El Clasico
00:42:46 - The game was closer than the score and Barca’s impressive workload
00:44:33 - Madrid’s gameplan was to be direct
00:45:19 - Was Fermin Lopez the correct choice?
00:46:06 - The technical ability on display
00:46:46 - Substitutions settled the game for Barca
00:47:55 - Casado’s line-breaking pass for Goal #1
00:48:52 - The high line was very impressive
00:50:11 - Lucas Vazquez struggled
00:53:14 - Who should be blamed for Madrid?
00:54:46 - Madrid struggle with a pivot and where was Endrick?
00:56:52 - Bellingham’s lack of forward threat
00:58:52 - Can Barcelona sustain this performance?
01:02:06 - Mbappe moving to the right side?
#manchesterunited #realmadrid #barcelona #manutd #eriktenhag #elclassico #football #soccer #podcast
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On this episode, Ted shares his picks for EPL matchday 9. He starts by explaining why he flat bets and when to use accumulators. He gives insights on the matches he's betting on, including Arsenal vs. Liverpool, and explains why he's staying away from certain matchups (both City and United). Enjoy!
More information on fractional Kelly betting: https://www.pinnacle.com/betting-resources/en/betting-strategy/revisiting-the-kelly-criterion-part-2-fractional-kelly/gbd27z9nljvgflgg
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:18 - Why do you bet flat amounts?
03:44 - Why don't you bet accumulators?
06:23 - Leicester City vs. Forest
07:16 - Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth
08:03 - Brentford vs. Ipswich
09:02 - Manchester City vs. Southampton
09:51 - Brighton vs. Wolves
11:33 - Everton vs. Fulham
13:10 - Chelsea vs. Newcastle
14:15 - Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham
15:33 - West Ham vs. Manchester United
17:02 - Arsenal vs. Liverpool
#premierleague #epl #betting #liverpool #arsenal #chelsea #tottenham #soccer #football #manchesterunited
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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Real Madrid's 5-2 win over Dortmund and the injuries to Thibaut Courtois and Rodrygo. Next, they preview the Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich Champions League match today and how the game might be insightful for El Clasico on Saturday. They then dive into the best lineups for both Real Madrid and Barcelona, how much injured (Dani Olmo and Gavi) and older (Luka Modric) might play, and give their predictions for the final score. They end the conversation with Xabi Alonso's rumoured exit from Bayer Leverkusen at the end of the season, potential landing spots, and if he will actually leave. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:02 - Real Madrid vs. Dortmund
04:32 - Real Madrid’s defense was shocking
05:32 - Different Midfield lineups Madrid has used
06:50 - Ravi’s pre-game prediction
07:48 - Bellingham last season vs. this season
09:43 - Modric, Valverde, and Madrid’s Galactico mindset
11:02 - How do they fix their midfield issues?
11:41 - How much will Modric play?
14:08 - Will Rodrygo be the odd man out?
15:12 - Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich Preview
16:20 - A good test for Bayern
17:39 - Barcelona players returning from injury
18:50 - How much can Gavi give them?
21:02 - What front 3 will Barcelona play?
22:35 - Giving minutes to returning players against Bayern
23:33 - What lineup will Madrid use against Barcelona?
24:10 - Courtois injury for Madrid
25:19 - An offensive vs. defensive lineup
26:37 - Stylistic matchups
28:21 - Should Barcelona play more conservatively?
30:11 - Both teams are weak at fullback
31:13 - Lewandowski should play as a pivot
31:57 - Ideal lineup for Barcelona
33:21 - Ravi’s predictions for El Clasico
35:38 - Patrick’s prediction for El Clasico
36:45 - Flick’s first Clasico
37:12 - A La Liga game vs. a Champions League game
39:19 - Leverkusen rumoured to be looking for a Xavi Alonso replacement
40:14 - The timing with Txiki’s departure and Pep’s contract expiring
40:52 - Real Madrid also make sense
41:34 - Hugo Viana and Ruben Amorim
42:21 - The obvious spot for Xabi Alonso
44:25 - What happens if Carlo Ancelotti doesn’t want to leave?
47:18 - Alonso’s contract ends in 2026
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss the eventful Liverpool vs. Chelsea match and Liverpool's defense looking vulnerable. They also discuss the impact VAR had over the weekend, and get into Saliba's red card in Arsenal's 2-0 loss to Bournemouth. Next comes Southampton's loss to Leicester and Russell Martin's comments after the game. They finish with Fulham vs. Aston Villa, Brighton vs. Newcastle and the resurgence of Raul Jimenez, Manchester United looking competent, and the trend of teams playing safer.
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00:00 - Intro
01:06 - Liverpool vs. Chelsea
03:23 - Trent Alexander-Arnold is a double-edged sword
04:22 - How cautious can you be in the modern Premier League?
05:07 - Concern for Andrew Robertson?
07:44 - Did Chelsea deserve an early penalty?
08:00 - VAR and red cards this weekend
08:44 - Caicedo as a playmaker
09:58 - This was Liverpool’s first real test
10:41 - Arsenal vs. Bournemouth
11:47 - Saliba’s red card
13:03 - Marginal calls in football
14:55 - How coaches game plan in the Premier League
16:24 - Manchester City look fragile
17:35 - Taking a red card vs. allowing a chance
19:16 - Southampton vs. Leicester City
20:36 - Russell Martin’s comments after the game
22:02 - How coaches start to talk when they want to be fired
25:29 - Mourinho’s ability to deflect from a bad performance
26:17 - Southampton’s poor performance under Martin
28:38 - 8 point gap to Leicester now
28:59 - Facundo Buonanotte and Brighton’s future
30:35 - Fulham vs. Aston Villa
33:03 - Neutral’s will love Fulham games
33:15 - Raul Jimenez is in insane form
35:10 - The resurgence of Old and Tall strikers
36:32 - Newcastle vs. Brighton
38:52 - Manchester looked competent
40:53 - Garnacho’s tendency to take wide-angle shots
42:45 - Is the trend of teams playing safer a problem?
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss all things Premier League related from the start of the season. They begin with teams that should be higher or lower than their current position in the table. Next, they decide which of the 4 relegation candidates will stay up. And finally, both Patrick and Ted give their predictions for the Top 6. Where do you think Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham, and the rest of the Premier League will finish?
Sebastian's guest newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/3-young-attacking-mids-on-the-rise
Ted's preseason gambling podcast: https://youtu.be/keg7HlCXPwE
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Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:34 - Who is the premier league table lying about right now?
00:02:41 - Newcastle United
00:05:37 - Giving honest takes vs driving engagement
00:06:31 - The table of justice
00:07:16 - Tottenham should be slightly better
00:08:03 - Spurs are playing like a Bundesliga team
00:09:12 - Exciting young pieces
00:11:03 - Where are they likely to finish?
00:12:44 - Bournemouth are better than the Table says
00:14:30 - Optimism for Everton
00:15:10 - Guest Newsletter authors
00:15:45 - Dwight McNeil’s blossoming role
00:18:11 - A Cash injection this January can fix their issues
00:19:02 - Everton fans should be happy with the takeover
00:21:35 - Manchester United’s rough start
00:22:36 - The Model’s take on United before the season
00:24:34 - United don’t tolerate long processes
00:26:20 - United fans who have never seen the good times
00:27:12 - Of the 4 candidates, who will get relegated?
00:27:27 - Ipswich
00:29:30 - Wolves
00:31:40 - Patrick’s prediction to stay up
00:32:43 - Leicester’s 5 point advantage
00:34:06 - the difficulty making a case for any of these teams
00:36:30 - What the gambling markets say
00:38:50 - Predicting the top 6
00:39:11 - factoring in a potential punishment for City
00:41:23 - Patrick’s top 4
00:42:40 - Talent goes a long way
00:44:56 - Patrick’s title winner
00:48:07 - Patrick’s 2nd place team
00:52:39 - 3rd place
00:56:48 - Debating the Last Champions League spot
00:59:57 - Patrick’s 5th and 6th place
01:00:24 - What the betting markets say
01:01:46 - Ted’s top 6
01:03:26 - When we’ll check back in on our predictions
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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi do a deep dive on the top teams in Serie A. They start with Napoli, who are top of the table despite what may have been the worst transfer window of any team. Next is Inter and their hopes back-to-back titles. Can they pull it off again despite an aging squad? Then comes Lazio, whose unconventional approach to players and manager hires sparks an interesting discussion on high variance teams. Last comes Milan, who almost sacked manager Paulo Fonseca early in the year, but have stabilized to be just 5 points out of first place. Enjoy!
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Timestamp:
00:00 - Intro
01:07 - Napoli’s fantastic start
01:40 - Our rough grades for Napoli’s window
03:04 - Lack of minutes for new players
05:26 - A more Conservative defensive style
06:28 - Grades are not based on 7 games
08:02 - Low shot quality in Serie A
10:53 - Lack of depth in attack for Napoli limits their title threat?
11:58 - Napoli’s advantage with no European Competition
14:50 - Where will they finish?
16:12 - Inter’s erratic start to the season
17:22 - The most balanced team in Serie A?
18:58 - Inter’s defensive shift
19:20 - Can the oldest team in Serie A keep this up?
21:31 - Marcus Thuram
22:39 - Do Inter need to share minutes more?
25:19 - Could they switch styles later in the year?
26:55 - Predictions for Inter’s season
27:17 - Lazio’s surprising start
28:41 - unexpected names contributing for Lazio
31:10 - Marco Baroni’s influence
35:43 - Are fringe European teams to conservative with their coaching hires?
39:12 - Thomas Tuchel’s training stories and how coaches influence their players
42:36 - Analytics only matter if you can translate them into simple messages
45:15 - Milan shake off a rough start
47:14 - Favorable matchups coming up
47:57 - Pulisic playing well and staying healthy
49:38 - Rafael Leao’s Attacking threat
51:47 - Using avoidance strategies to change player behaviors
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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Dani Carvajal's injury and potential replacements that Real Madrid should consider. Can they get Trent Alexander-Arnold to come over, or should they look elsewhere? They then get into Chelsea's front line and which combinations of players is best for their team. Next, Manchester City's Director of Football Txiki Begiristain is set to leave, who are the likely hires with Pep's departure looming. Finally, Paul Pogba suspension was reduced, where are the likely landing spots for the 31-year-old Italian midfielder? Enjoy!
Ted's article on potential Toni Kroos replacements: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/kroos-ify-me
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:46 - Dani Carvajal's injury
01:34 - Specifics of the injury
04:50 - Carvajal's 1 year extension
05:23 - Solutions for Real Madrid
05:57 - A leadership gap
07:33 - Can Madrid lure Trent Alexander-Arnold?
10:03 - Hakimi as an option at RB
12:50 - Sliding Militao over from CB?
15:16 - Other candidates at RB
17:55 - Will Kroos unretire?
18:20 - Unresolved Vini Jr/Mbappe problems
19:55 - Who should play in Chelsea's front line?
24:29 - The disadvantage of signing the best players from smaller sides?
26:26 - Where does Nkunku fit in?
27:23 - Can players change their pressing style?
30:18 - Joao Felix's adaptability
31:02 - What happens against better sides?
32:33 - City lose their Director of Football, Txiki Begiristain
33:24 - How did Txiki perform?
36:17 - Potential replacements
39:09 - How does a DoF influence the rest of the back room?
42:47 - Will the next DoF be more powerful with Pep likely gone?
45:38 - Paul Pogba's suspension reduced
46:12 - Where might Pogba end up?
48:38 - Is MLS an option?
50:20 - Could he stay in Italy?
51:28 - Playing Pogba as a 10
53:16 - Taking a smaller contract to entice bigger teams
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On this Episode, Ted and Patrick do a deep dive on Brentford's fast starts to game and how teams are undervaluing set pieces. They then move to discussion on playing out of the back, which has caused issues for many teams to start the season. Next, they move to Bayern Munich's recent games and their high defensive line looking fragile. To end, the move to quick hits on Real Madrid's injury situation and their need to spend big in the winter window, Micky van de Ven struggle in Spurs' loss to to Brighton, and Cole Palmer during Chelsea's 1-1 draw with Forest. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:18 - Brentford have solved Football
01:54 - Set Pieces and Ted's history with them and Brentford
06:33 - Brentford has applied this to kickoffs
08:28 - Is it sustainable?
09:22 - Zdeněk Zeman
10:22 - Team's undervaluing set pieces
13:21 - The biggest differences between a corner and a long-throw in
16:17 - How the fast starts have helped Brentford
19:54 - Principles to watch on set pieces
22:49 - Football being influenced by other sports
25:33 - Short goal kick equilibrium
26:16 - Daryl Morey's thoughts on short Goal kicks
28:27 - Forcing other teams to adapt to your style
28:51 - The end of short goal kicks?
33:09 - Teams that adapt faster will benefit
33:17 - Bayern's recent struggles
35:13 - Omar Marmoush's good form
36:24 - Bayern's high line is vulnerable
39:03 - Pep's ability to kill off games
40:39 - Will Kompany be able to learn?
43:04 - Real Madrid's injuries and the Winter window
43:49 - Madrid are missing Kroos
44:15 - Petar Sucic as a Kimmich-like
45:35 - van de Ven and Spurs vs Brighton
47:07 - Mitoma's = Bukayo Saka?
48:45 - The Welbeck winner and 2 amazing assists from the weekend
49:15 - Chelsea vs Forest and Cole Palmer
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Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his Premier League Matchday 7 picks. Subscribe for more!
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More on Asian Handicap betting: https://www.betshoot.com/betting-guides/asian-handicap-betting/
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:54 Asian Handicap betting explained
4:23 Newsletter
5:39 Crystal Palace v Liverpool
6:42 Leicester City v Bournemouth
7:57 Arsenal v Southampton
9:11 Brentford v Wolves
10:07 West Ham v Ipswich
12:24 Man City v Fulham
14:15 Everton v Newcastle
15:48 Chelsea v Nottingham Forest
17:22 Aston Villa v Man United
19:30 Brighton v Spurs
21:25 Outro
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Patrick and Ravi discuss Arsenal's win over PSG, Dortmund's demolition of Celtic, and Barcelona's loss to Osasuna. They further analyse Dortmund's managerial situation, Barca's incredible youth integration, and Arsenal's defensive tendencies. Enjoy!
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Timestamps
00:00 Episode Overview
00:23 Intro
2:35 Arsenal v PSG Review
3:08 Lineup Reaction
6:07 Tactical Breakdown
8:35 Absence of Dembele
9:14 PSG creating identity
10:27 Arsenal’s dominant defence
13:15 Are Arsenal too defensive?
17:10 Dortmund v Celtic Review
22:51 Dortmund under Sahin
26:31 Will Dortmund sack Sahin?
28:30 Barcelona’s loss to Osasuna
30:08 How to properly rotate your squad
38:56 Champions League format thoughts
40:00 La Masia player integration
46:58 Are some positions easier to break into?
54:25 Outro
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Patrick and Ted discuss the best way for Manchester United to move on from Erik Ten Hag and debate whether Cole Palmer is currently the best player in the Premier League. They also analyse the Madrid Derby and do a deep dive on Bayern Munich under new manager Vincent Kompany. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 Episode Overview
00:36 Intro
1:46 Bayern vs Leverkusen review
4:30 Bayern going under the radar
6:55 Match breakdown
9:47 Kompany’s impact
11:30 The Pep Guardiola Effect
13:52 Man United vs Spurs Review
18:58 United’s terrible midfield
19:32 Spurs looking dangerous
19:54 Ten Hag and Man United’s summer recruitment
23:56 Man United’s new manager hunt
40:59 Chelsea’s start to the season
43:34 How not to play out from the back
44:43 Nicolas Jackson’s hot start
45:00 Is Cole Palmer the best player in the League?
51:00 James Justin golazo
51:30 Madrid Derby Review
56:17 Outro
57:42 Variance Betting Subscription update
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Patrick and Ravi discuss how Man City can cope without Rodri, potential replacements, and a La Liga Roundup. They analyse Barcelona's strong start to the season, Real Madrid's start studded squad, Atletico Madrid's solid defence, and ownership issues in the league. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 Episode overview
00:37 Intro
1:53 Barcelona’s surprising form
2:30 Ter Stegan’s injury & replacements
9:09 Can Barcelona hold off Real Madrid?
13:16 Real Madrid’s recent form
15:44 Lacking balance in midfield
17:42 Madrid’s stacked attack
20:50 Concerns about defence
22:40 Atletico Madrid’s Strengths & Weaknesses
26:25 Analysing Atleti’s solid defence
29:13 Valencia’s struggles
31:40 Sevilla’s ownership issues
32:56 Valencia under Peter Lim
37:22 Rodri ACL injury
41:40 Impact on Man City
43:15 How can City cope?
47:10 What solution will Pep come up wIth?
50:18 Potential Rodri replacements
1:00:45 Outro
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