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Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has an approval rating of about 50%. Unemployment in the country is at its lowest level in a decade and the economy is expected to grow about 3% this year, beating forecasts from just a few months ago. But despite all that, in recent mayoral elections across the country, Lula's Workers’ Party (PT) finished ninth in the number of mayors elected. The big winners were politicians from the centrão, the so-called big center, a coalition of parties that range on the ideological spectrum from the center to the center right and right. These are also the parties that wield control in Brazil’s Congress. In this episode, an analysis of what these results suggest about Brazilian politics today, why the economy is seeing improvement and what is impacting growth potential. Our guest is Christopher Garman, managing director for the Americas, Eurasia Group.
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Latin America is the world's breadbasket. The region is now the source of more than 60% of the world’s soy, almost half its corn and more than a quarter of its beef. At the same time, about 28% of people in Latin America and the Caribbean don’t have enough food for themselves. On today’s podcast, we’ll explore Latin America’s so-called “food paradox.” Why is it that as the region produces and exports more food than ever, it’s also having trouble feeding its own people? Our guest is Brandee Mchale, Head of Community Investing and Development at Citi and President of the Citi Foundation. She discusses what is causing this paradox and how the private sector is implicated in solving it.
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Although Democrats still lead among Latinos, Republicans have grown their share of support among that community in the last two elections. Looking ahead to the upcoming contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, we discuss some of the reasons for that shift, the long and little-known history of the Latino population in the United States and how economic and social issues shapes their political views. Marie Arana, author of LatinoLand: A Portrait of America's Largest and Least Understood Minority, argues that Democrats and politicians of all stripes are just beginning to understand them.
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Claudia Sheinbaum will take office as Mexico's new president next week, on October 1, 2024. Often described as a technocrat, she also supports some of current President AMLO's more controversial policies, such as the judicial reform that was just approved. In this episode Vanessa Rubio, a professor at the London School of Economics and a former senator and deputy minister, shares what she expects from Sheinbaum's government. Rubio argues her administration will take shape as a new blend—one that could be deemed “techno-populist.”
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Javier Milei has so far succeeded in making drastic changes to Argentina's economic policies. In this episode we evaluate what has worked and what hasn't, and who have been the winners and losers. Milei's deep spending cuts have produced in the first 5 months of 2024 a primary fiscal surplus of 1.1% of GDP and inflation is down to about 4% a month. Poverty however continues to rise and the IMF projects an economic contraction of 3,5% for 2024. What do these results amount to in terms of real improvement to the economy? What challenges remain? And what are the most likely political and economic outcomes of Milei's policies? Our guest is Eduardo Levy Yeyati, a former chief economist of the Central Bank of Argentina, and currently a professor at the School of Government at Torcuato di Tella University in Buenos Aires. He also discusses the need for a revival of centrist politics in Latin America.
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The entry of Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential race has completely transformed the election. In this episode we ask what we can expect from her Latin America policy were she to win in November. How do leaders in the region perceive her? What are her views on migration? What can we learn from her record as Vice-President, tasked with the challenging issue of addressing the factors that make people from Central America migrate to the U.S.? What is her stance on trade, and how might she handle the 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)? Our guest is Roberta S. Jacobson, a former State Department official.
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Since the election on July 28 Nicolás Maduro has unleashed a wave of repression not seen in Venezuela before. The question on everyone's mind is, what now? Will Venezuela move further down the path of a dictatorship, or is there some chance of a negotiated solution that might lead to a democratic transition? In this episode, Roberto Patiño, a civil society leader and a member of one of the opposition parties, discusses the opposition's strategies, evaluates the positions taken by Brazil, Colombia, the U.S. and Mexico and describes what he sees as cracks in the Maduro regime.
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Ecuador’s young president Daniel Noboa is engaged in a tough battle with organized crime groups that paralyzed the country earlier this year. It’s been six months since that dramatic series of events. In this episode we take stock of what has happened since. How successfully has the government dealt with the security crisis? How valid are comparisons between Ecuador’s crackdown and that of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador? What has happened to Noboa’s popularity after it spiked following those attacks in January? And is Noboa considered the favorite to be reelected in Ecuador’s next presidential election, scheduled for February 2025? Or guest is Sebastian Hurtado, a political risk consultant based in Quito.
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Gustavo Petro is halfway through his presidential term in Colombia. The first leftist president in the country's modern history faced suspicion from the political and economic establishment from day 1. He’s used sweeping rhetoric to describe his plans for an economic overhaul, as well as his security initatives But in practice, Petro has struggled to translate his speeches into reality. In this episode we do a broad overview of Petro’s government so far, trying to separate rhetoric from reality, understand areas where his government has been successful and identify challenges and risks in his remaining two years in office. Our guest is Laura Lizarazo, Senior Analyst for the Andean region in Control Risks' Global Risk Analysis.
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Voters throughout Latin America are craving solutions to the spread of organized crime. In today's episode, we’ll look in detail at how Nayib Bukele executed the crackdown on gangs in El Salvador, analyze the extent to which the model has been adopted by some politicians around the region and evaluate why that is more difficult than it seems. Our guest is Manuel Meléndez-Sánchez, a doctoral candidate in government at Harvard University. He just co-authored with Alberto Vergara, professor of political and social sciences at the Universidad del Pacífico in Lima, a piece entitled "The Bukele Model: Will It Spread?", published in the Journal of Democracy.
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In Brazil, unemployment is at a record low, inflation is under control and growth projections are being revised up. However, the Lula administration is having a hard time moving forward with expected reforms, and financial markets are reacting negatively. This episode dissects the forces behind these trends. Why is Lula facing resistance in Congress? What are the economic debates under way inside the administration, and who is winning? How is Lula himself handling the challenges of a third term? Our guest is political analyst Celso Rocha de Barros, a sociologist, an analyst for Brazil's Central Bank, a columnist for Folha de S.Paulo, a podcaster at Revista Piauí and the author of PT, Uma História, a book about the history of Lula's Worker's Party.
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Twice a year the AQ Podcast takes stock of Latin America’s economies — what the region is doing well and where the challenges are. There is good news — inflation below OECD levels, for example, but growth is still below potential, according to our guest, William F. Maloney, Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean at the World Bank. He argues that more competition within countries could be a motor for change. William also provides some clarity on the trend that’s been at the top of everyones minds when it comes to investment in the region, nearshoring, and the extent to which it is actually happening.
Subscribe to the Americas Quarterly Podcast on Apple, Spotify and other platforms
Guest:
William F. Maloney is Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean at the World Bank
Host:
Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly
If you’d like to know more:
Mexico’s Post-Election Fiscal Reality Check by Carlos Ramírez Fuentes
AQ Podcast | A Surprising Case for Optimism in Peru
Can Copper Prices and Nearshoring Restart Peru’s Economic Dynamism? by Alfredo Thorne
AQ Podcast | Nearshoring In The Americas: Hype And Reality
A Ticking Clock for Latin America’s Nearshoring Opportunity by Shannon K. O’Neil
EU’s Elections May Have Unexpected Reverberations in Latin America by Solange Márquez Espinoza
Saudi Arabia Courts Latin America and the Caribbean by Emilie Sweigart
Why the U.S. and China Suddenly Care About a Port in Southern Chile by Patricia Garip
Latin America Needs More Infrastructure to Seize Nearshoring Opportunity by Susan Segal
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Venezuelans are scheduled to vote for president on July 28th. In today’s episode, we look at the state of the negotiations between the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro and the opposition, assess how inclined Maduro is to accept a possible defeat and if there’s any chance for a transition to democracy. The opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia, a former diplomat and academic, has about 60% support in polls, compared to support of just 9% support for President Maduro. Our guest is Michael Penfold, Professor at the Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración (IESA), Global Fellow at the Wilson Center and author of El país que se muerde la cola (2023).
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Claudia Sheinbaum's victory in the Mexican elections was expected, but the 30-point margin surprised many and gave her and the Morena coalition a mandate like few others in Latin America’s recent political history. In this episode, Viri Ríos, a scholar and one of Mexico's most prominent intellectual personalities, discusses how the country got here and looks ahead to what she thinks Sheinbaum and Morena do with that power, as well as to what extent Sheinbaum’s six-year term be a continuation of her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
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Peru's story in the past 20 years has gone from fast growth and poverty reduction to fractious politics and a dwindling economy. In this episode, Alfredo Thorne, a former finance minister (2016-2017), makes the case for how the country could get back on track to restore growth and distribute it more fairly between rich and poor, Lima and the rest of the country. In his view, high copper prices and new ports expected to be inaugurated soon provide that opportunity, despite the risks associated with a dependency on commodities for development.
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Panama’s president-elect José Raúl Mulino assumes control of a country struggling with challenges that pertain not only to its population but to many other countries as well. Climate change is affecting the Panama canal and there is rising migration through the Darien Gap. Panama is also a theater for the U.S.-China competition. In today's episode we explore what to expect from Mulino's term in office regarding these and other issues, such as the copper mine that has been a center of controversy in the past year and what's next for Ricardo Martinelli, the former president who helped put Mulino in office while simultaneously hiding in the Nicaraguan embassy to escape a conviction for money laundering. Our guest is Mat Youkee, a journalist who has covered Latin America for many years and Panama since 2018.
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In an attempt to gauge what another Joe Biden or Donald Trump administration would mean for policy toward Latin America, the AQ Podcast is bringing in people with intimate knowledge of both camps. In this episode, Ricardo Zúniga, a major figure on Latin America policy under the Barack Obama and Biden administrations, reviews the major events on the past fours years and looks ahead to what could change if Biden is reelected in November. He discusses overarching policy strategies towards the region, how the U.S. has addressed China’s growing presence there, migration and trade, as well as the specific dynamics of the relationships with Venezuela, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, Cuba and Argentina.
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Since Javier Milei took office in December, life has become even more difficult in Argentina. Real salaries have fallen by more than 20% since December. Inflation has lowered, but is still running high, above 270% on an annual basis. Yet Milei’s approval rating is still around 50%. In today's episode we discuss with pollster and political strategist Ana Iparraguirre why that is. We also talk about the state of his pro-market agenda, what he is likely to achieve in the near future and what to make of his search for prominence in the global stage. Iparraguirre is a partner at GBAO, a Washington-based political strategy consultancy.
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Brazil's economy performed better than expected last year, expanding almost 3%. But in 2024 the outlook is more complex, as last year's sources of growth are not expected to perform in the same way. There is also a tug of war inside the Lula administration about public spending and government oversight in national oil company Petrobras. In this episode we assess Latin America's largest economy from an investment perspective and look at the politics behind recent government decisions and what is to come. Our guest is Mário Braga, a senior analyst for Brazil at Control Risks consultancy firm.
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