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Dr. Daniel Sperling is one of the world's leading experts on electric vehicles. His knowledge runs very deep. Dr. Sperling founded the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis. He has written 13 books, including Two Billion Cars, and published 250 papers. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appointed him to the powerful California Air Resources Board, a position he held for 13 years. Dr Sperling has also built a deep understanding of China's EV industry. In this episode we talk about his work at CARB, China's ambitions, interactions with Elon Musk and how demand for electric vehicles will continue to vary by state and by country for the next decade. Dr Sperling also offers some practical advice to people who are on the fence about EVs.
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Here is a candidate for the single most important development in the global auto industry this year: One of every two new cars sold in China this year will be electric. Half! In the US and Europe, we are experiencing a kind of EV wheel spin. EVs as a share of total sales in America still hover under 10%. Europe is a bit higher at 15%, but the pace of growth has slowed dramatically. Why is EV demand growing so much faster in China than in the West? One big factor is the cost of batteries. That is where China enjoys a massive advantage. But the game is not over. Startups in the West, like OneD Battery Sciences, are developing better battery chemistries that deliver higher energy density at lower costs. What are they working on? How soon will we see breakthrough batteries? And how might the US electric change the landscape? To get answers, listen to Vincent Pluvinage and K.T. Neumann.
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It is no secret that electric cars are fast - very fast. But for many drivers, EVs like Tesla or Lucid - even Porsche - do not seem to fuel quite the same emotion as sports cars powered by internal combustion engines. To borrow the French term, the piece de resistance seems to be missing. This makes today's buyers ask: What is the point of driving a sports car if you're not feeling something extraordinary? Toni Piech and Tobias Moers agree. That is why they have set out a vision for an electric sports car that will be quick, very enjoyable to drive and extraordinarily talented when it comes to getting your adrenaline flowing. They will call it the Piech GT. And it will be ready for launch in 2028. They have set the highest bar. The goal is to make it even better than the Porsche Taycan in performance and excitement. So, what will separate the Piech GT from Porsche and everything else on the road? Let's find out. Toni Piech, Founder and Tobias Moers, CEO, Piech Automotive.
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In his best-selling book, Sapiens, Yuval Noah Harari describes the most important feature that separates human beings from all other species on the planet: Imagination. We have the ability to imagine something that does not (yet) exist, communicate the concept to others and persuade them to believe it. As a concrete example, he cites the limited liability company, an idea first hatched by the Dutch back in the 1600s. Today we are going to explore the imaginative idea of Web 3.0, an ambitious project to take usout of the quagmire that has become Web 2.0. The basic goal is to create a private internet that is much safer and more efficient than what we have today. Getting there will require imagination, education and a lot of believing. To get us on the path, we are very pleased to have as our guest Tram Vo, co-founder of MOBI, an organization that is building the infrastructure to make Web 3.0 possible.
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By now you may have heard the term software defined vehicle. But what does it mean? Tesla was the first to make one. Chinese automakers like NIO and Xpeng followed quickly. Most Western OEMs today are still figuring out how to make them. But what exactly is a software-defined vehicle? How do they work? Today I am joined on the Driving With Dunne podcast by John Wall, the SVP and Head of QNX Engineering, Product and Operations at Blackberry QNX. This Ottawa, Canada based company makes some of the most important real-time operating systems and software that power your car, including your digital cockpit and your advanced driver assistance systems. Think of QNX as the master plumber of software systems found in more than 230 million cars on the road today worldwide.
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Dr. Ilaria Mazzocco and her colleagues at CSIS found that Chinese subsidies to companies in strategic industries are more than twice as high as in other countries. The numbers are not insignificant. This week, we learned that BYD secured some $3.4 billion in subsidies in 2023 alone. As a group Chinese automakers have benefited from tens of billions of dollars in supply side and consumer subsidies since 2010. Complicating the picture, however, is the reality that China is also home to some fast-moving, highly innovative firms led by people who work harder and sometimes smarter than their peers in the West. Today, Ilaria and I dive deeper into the question of Chinese state capitalism, subsidies and how the West can respond to the rising tide - call it a tsunami - of low-cost, good quality Chinese automotive exports.
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The world is in the midst of a monumental transition from fossil fuels to critical minerals. Those critical minerals, like lithium, cobalt and nickel, are the key ingredients in the batteries that power electric cars, cell phones, electric lawn mowers and more. Today, the minerals are extracted from the ground at mining sites around the world. Massive lithium deposits, for example, are located in Australia, Chile and Argentina. China has minerals, too. China also controls most of the world's mineral processing. As America and Europe step into the critical minerals era, there is a desire for greater access to and control over critical minerals. Now, teams of expert geologists are uncovering new deposits in North America. But after finding the minerals, the mining companies and their investors are confronting unexpected hurdles to clear before they can start mining. Indigenous groups and environmentalists are saying: "Not so fast" to new mines. This week on the Driving With Dunne, Ernest Scheyder, author of The War Below, gives us an inside look at the heating and complex battles over the rights to mine critical minerals.
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By now everyone understands US-China relations are at their worst in 50 years. There is mutual distrust. And mutual animosity. China complains bitterly that America is trying to keep it down. America, meanwhile, is wary of China's new-found aggressiveness. Are the world's two most powerful countries heading for a showdown? If so, how should companies in the West prepare. Stay the course in China? Pare back operations? Or beat it for the exits?
This week our special guest on the Driving With Dunne podcast is Jim McGregor. Jim first went to China in the 1980s. Today he is the Chairman Greater China, APCO Worldwide, a company that solves problems for firms operating in the Chinese arena. Jim knows China. And he knows business. Jim is also the author of the best-selling book, One Billion Customers. Let's listen to his take on where the US-China relationship is headed -
What is an autonomous vehicle? And how will we know one when we see one? Today, the picture is pretty confusing. We have all sorts of names out there: autonomous, self-driving, fully self driving, drive pilot, autopilot, blue cruise, super cruise, Sensing 360, Apollo and NGP navigated guided pilot. Further complicating the picture: In recent months, two of the leaders in the autonomous vehicle industry - Cruise and Waymo - have each suffered setbacks to their reputations in their hyper-intensive missions to create cars that drive themselves. Can they recover? Joining is today to sift through the complexity and bring clarity is Alex Roy, one of the very best original thinkers in the business. Let's listen to Alex separate fact from fiction when it comes to autonomous vehicles.
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It is time to take an honest look at battery technologies. The fact is that batteries that power electric cars today have many limitations. There are limits to the range they can deliver. There are limits to how quickly you can charge them. And there are limits to how many times they can be charged before they start losing their full capacity. And then there are limits to their safety. Lithium-ion battery fires are rare. But once a lithium battery catches fire, it is not easy to put out. These limitations are problems that fire the imagination of entrepreneurs. Hey, let's find a solution, they say, let's improve people's lives and maybe get outrageously wealthy along the way. One of those breakthrough battery solutions on the horizon is known as silicon batteries. When you reduce graphite and add more silicon to the anode, magical things can happen. Our guest today, Rick Luebbe, CEO at Group 14 Technologies. Rick makes a case for why silicon batteries are no longer a technology of the future - they are here and now in 2024.
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In this episode, we use our imagination, well, to imagine a totally different kind of future. One in which we get to where we want to go in town not in several thousand pound SUVs but in sensible light weight vehicles that save on fuel and are good for the environment. Our guest is Hakan Lutz, founder and CEO of Luvly, developer of the Luvly O, a two-seater vehicle that can travel up to 60 miles on a single charge. The Luvly O (that's LUV) is short for light urban vehicle. It's electric, lightweight and recyclable. And it can be packed for delivery by Amazon in a flat box. How much does the Luvly O cost. How fast can it go? How safe is it? And in which countries is it most likely to gain early traction? You will learn all of that and more on this week's episode of the Driving With Dunne podcast.
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Many say that price is the single biggest limiter to EV demand in Western countries. In the United States, the average price of a new EV is $53,000. In Europe, the number is even higher - $60,000. On the other hand, China produces EVs across the price spectrum – from $5,500 to $160,000. Why is it so hard to match China on cost? What steps must Western automakers - and governments - take to compete with Chinese firms? The key is batteries. This week three executives with deep expertise in batteries – Vincent Pluvinage, Karl-Thomas Neumann and James Frith in London – join me to explore the options.
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When a Western executive is called on to build business in China what should be his or her mindset? What are the most important things they need to know before they go? Ken Wilcox, former CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, has answers. For three years, Mr Wilcox ran a 50-50 joint venture with the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank. On paper the two partners' mission and objectives were totally aligned. Reality was a different story. In this week's episode, Mr Wilcox delivers a master class in the realities of doing a joint venture in China, from the glorious honeymoon period to the hellscape of unexpected twists, turns, delays and obfuscations. It is pointless to whine or complain, says Wilcox. Just know how things work before you take your first steps and "try to lose your leverage gradually." This week's Driving With Dunne conversation previews Mr Wilcox's forthcoming blockbuster book: One Bed, Two Dreams, scheduled for publication in early 2024.
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What is the truth about China' economy today? Read the headlines or social media and we could be forgiven for thinking that the People's Republic is falling apart. The 42 trillion property market seems to be in a death spiral. Youth unemployment is at record highs. Government debt keeps rocketing higher. And just this week, reports that foreign companies took $160 billion out of the country in the past 6 quarters. All of this makes for a riveting picture of a fragile China, a cracking and crumbling China. But is it accurate? Enter Leland Miller, CEO, The China Beige Book. Tracking China's economy since the 1990s, Leland knows China. And he knows that to really understand what is going on, you must compare and discount several streams of information at the same time. His take on where China stands to today and her economy will surprise many. China is never as good as it seems from afar. Nor is it as bad. I know you will enjoy this conversation with Leland Miller, CEO, China Beige Book.
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When it comes to batteries for Evs, can we be done with the incremental, inch by inch improvements? Everyone in the battery business is looking for a breakthrough. Dramatically more range. Lower costs. Faster charging. And, of course, make them safer. Today we meet a potential game changer: AI. Artificial Intelligence has the ability to assess and make sense of mountains of data at very high speed. This, in turn, let's engineers develop the ideal battery chemistry for specific applications at light speed, or close to it. My guest today is Jason Koeller, Co-founder Chemix, an impressive Silicon Valley based startup. If the US government decides to assemble a Team USA for batteries and battery supply chains, Jason should be at the top of the roster. He is smart. He's original. And he is a man of action. He believes that the future is electric. And he is confident that AI can produce breakthroughs for batteries across the board - range, safety, energy density. Let's find out how and how soon on the Driving With Dunne podcast.
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China is surpassing Japan in 2023 to become the world's leading exporter of cars. BYDs, Cherys and Zeekrs are finding their way to more than 100 markets worldwide. Top destinations include Russia, Mexico, Australia and Spain. Never before in the history of the car has the world witnessed such explosive growth in car exports from a single country. Not surprisingly, the blitz of Chinese cars on global roads has unsettled auto executives and policy leaders alike. How on earth will legacy automakers compete with China's overwhelming advantages in costs? How should Europe and the United States respond? Some early reactions have already surfaced. The Trump Administration put in place a 27.5% tariff on vehicles imported from China. And the president of the EU Commission just launched an anti-subsidy probe on Chinese automakers. What else can policymakers do? Wendy Cutler, our special guest today, walks us through the ups and downs of trade agreements with China since the PRC's accession to the WTO in 2001.
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Tesla and BYD steal the headlines as they race for global leadership in battery electric vehicles. But on the near horizon there is another technology that delivers zero emissions: hydrogen fuel cells. General Motors has been developing fuel cell solutions for more than 20 years. They are doing important pilot testing of fuel cell applications for Class 8 trucks, with the US military on battlefield applications and in mobile charging units. My guest this week, Charlie Freese, is an expert on all vehicle propulsion systems and is currently focused on hydrogen. In our conversation, I ask Charlie what he drives to work every day, how soon he sees himself behind the wheel of a vehicle powered by fuel cells and where hydrogen fuel cells are a better solution than battery electric vehicles.
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We begin Part II of this conversation with David Barboza in the days leading up to publication of arguably the most explosive and dangerous story out of China in 50 years. For the past 18 months, Barboza has been systematically collecting records and data and information about a massive amount of wealth accrued by the family of China's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao. Nothing is easy, clear or straightforward. There are layers of ownership by companies and people some of whom are only remotely related to the family. But Barboza is now confident that he has an air-tight story. He is ready to publish. But, wait a minute, what about his bosses at the New York Times? Are they ready, too? Or are there still a few more twists and turns and somersaults before they are prepared to push the publish now button? And what happens after the story flies out into the world?
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David Barboza won a Pulitzer prize for a blockbuster story he wrote while reporting in China for the New York Times. The story took years to research and write. Here is how things got started: Barboza had challenged himself with a daring and impossible goal. Would it be feasible, he wondered, to gather evidence that powerful leaders in China's Communist Party were amassing great wealth? He figured that if he were able to prove that a high-ranking family had assets of around $5 million dollars, it would be a massive coup. Never in a million years did he dream that his investigations would uncover that the Prime Minister's family had accrued more than 2 billion dollars in concealed wealth - company shares, cash, diamonds, gold and homes. In this week's Driving With Dunne episode, Mr Barboza brings us, step by step, into the events as they unfolded, as he experienced them. "The longer it takes you to publish the story," security experts at the New York Times told him, "the more dangerous things will get."
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For most of his career, Tony Posawatz was a highly successful engineer working in GM's lucrative truck division. That meant big rigs powered by gasoline and diesel engines. Then one day in 2006 GM's top leadership appointed him to lead a breakthrough initiative. "Build us an electric car that will make people forget all about the Toyota Prius," they said. GM had taken a shot at an all-electric vehicle in the 1990s called the EV1. Tony and his team of top notch GM engineers knew that the way to beat the Prius was to go electric. But range anxiety was an issue. So, they got inventive and designed a propulsion system that featured both an electric battery and a gasoline engine. This set-up, in time, would become known as a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle or a PHEV. That product, which debuted 11 years ago, served as a bridge to a barrage of pure electrics like the Tesla Model 3, the Hyundai IONIQ, the Mustang Mach E, the Rivians and the Lucids now hitting the market today. How far along have we advanced on the path to electrics. And how much work still remains to be done before we reach electric nirvana?
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