Afspillet
-
DC Analyst joins Joseph Wang and Jack Farley for a discussion about commercial banks, treasuries, and bearishness on banks.
--
DC on Twitter: @AnalystDC
Joseph Wang on Twitter: @FedGuy12
Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
--
Links
___
Liberty Street Economics, "The Fed’s Balance Sheet Runoff and the ON RRP Facility":
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/04/the-feds-balance-sheet-runoff-and-the-on-rrp-facility/
Bullard's Triple Rate Hike Comment: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-19/last-resort-fed-hike-enters-debate-as-bullard-invokes-1994-move
DC's substack: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/p/chartbook-15?s=r
Joseph Wang's writings: https://fedguy.com/draining-the-rrp/
--
(00:00) Introduction To DC Analyst
(02:01) Why Are Banks Buying Fewer Treasuries?
(14:30) Implosion Of The Japanese Yen
(20:40) Who Will Buy The Treasuries?
(31:20) What If Banks Don't Lend More?
(37:30) Bearish For Banks? (No)
(42:47) Quantitative Tightening - Will The Fed Be Forced to Sell?
(46:57) Mortgage-Backed Securities
(57:40) Bullard's Comments on Triple-Hike -
Ed Harrison, senior editor at Bloomberg and author of The Everything Risk, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on inflation, the Federal Reserve’s ongoing tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks. Harrison shares his outlook on China, commodities, the FAANG stocks, and why he sees the makings for a new era for markets.
__
Follow Ed Harrison on Twitter https://twitter.com/edwardnh
Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
--
Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected].
Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
--
(00:00) Introduction
(02:36) Is The Era of East Money Over?
(04:56) Comparisons to the 2000s Tech Album
(13:30) Valuing Companies With Network Effects
(16:23) Markets Reaction To Monetary Policy
(18:46) ARKK
(22:25) Fed Rate Hikes & Credit Markets
(27:26) Where Is The Fed Put?
(31:53) Bit.com Ad
(32:25) A Shift From Deflation to Inflation?
(37:31) FANTAMAN Stocks
(40:28) How China is Exporting Stagflation
(41:55) Russia's Invasion of Ukraine & The Effect On Energy Markets
(46:19) Will High Energy Prices Cause Demand Destruction?
(50:05) 5YR Breakeven Inflation
(51:40) Inflation in Europe
(52:58) The Global Dollar Wrecking Ball
(56:06) Final Thoughts
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Follow Jim Bianco https://twitter.com/biancoresearch
Follow Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12
Follow Jack Farley https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Timestamps:
(00:00) Opening Thoughts
(08:05) Powell's "Codewords"
(15:10) The Balance Sheet: Stock vs. Flow
(22:10) Is The Fed No Longer Credible?
(27:32) When Is Inflation Going to Peak?
(47:15) Worst Bond Market Sell-Off Since George Washington Became President
(51:30) Systemic Risks For The Financial Systems
(53:00) Are Rate Hikes Good for Commercial Banks?
(1:01:04) How Far Can The Fed Go?
