Episodes
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We discuss whether Bitcoin 118x market cap multiplier proposed by BOA is correct.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://21stcapital.com/
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We dived deep into MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock to help investors and Bitcoin enthusiasts understand its unique value and potential.We discussed what makes MSTR's bullish case so compelling, break down how to really value the stock, and bust some common myths around it.Topics we discussed:- MSTR’s bold $42B capital-raising plan: what it means for investors and the potential long-term impacts.- Why the NAV premium above 1 could be justified and how it plays into MSTR’s investment narrative.- The role of MicroStrategy’s software business: does it still matter, or is Bitcoin their only path forward?- A fresh look at financial statements through a Bitcoin-focused, modern perspective rather than traditional finance lenses.For anyone interested in MSTR’s strategy, the intersection of tech and Bitcoin, and the risks and rewards involved, this discussion is packed with insights you won’t want to miss!---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Timestamps:00:00 Overview02:01 Introduction of the panel9:36 MSTR Bullcase17:34 MSTR is an Equity not a Commodity21:26 MSTR Reflexivity and mNAV Expansion24:09 MSTR mNAV Below 127:30 Top MSTR Catalysts30:02 MSTR Premium Keeps Expanding33:31 MSTR is Better than Mining35:37 Bitcoin is Collateral37:56 A Model of mNAV41:47 MSTR vs. BTC45:28 The $42B Plan & how it will impact the price50:24 How is MSTR Share Creation Acretive?56:43 Health of the software business01:04:56 Will MSTR buy another company?01:05:48 Performance of convertible bonds01:06:56 Transition01:08:07 MSTR as a refinery01:16:01 Diversifying into Bitcoin01:17:38 Effect of ETF Options on MSTR01:21:05 Hottest stock in the universe1:23:00 Fireworks are coming1:25:21 Transition1:26:04 MSTR is a mass-adoption driver1:34:15 Orange man effect on Bitcoin 1:38:06 Devil’s advocate: MSTR risks1:42:41 Doom’s day scenarios for BTC and MSTR1:45:50 MSTR holders are allies to Bitcoin holders 1:47:50 What happens to MSTR in a BTC bear market1:50:25 Meme coin capital into MSTR1:52:20 MSTR may dampen the bear market1:58:49 Conclusion 2:04:13 Polymarket Prediciton and Price
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Missing episodes?
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What I learned today from the discussion today- SH Supply: Short-term holders are in profit and have ~2M coins in profit- SH MVRV: This profit is only +14% (historically very low) - SH NUPL: They are not realizing profits by any significant amount and instead wait for higher prices- Funding Rate: Futures market is very cool and the funding rate is at historically low values, indicating no overheating- ETF Flows: Lastly, the ETFs have been buying relentlessly, supporting the price actionSummary: everything is ready for the next leg up. All metrics are extremely bullish---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://21stcapital.com/
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We will discuss whether Bitcoin is overvalued and analyze short-term holder behavior after the recent pump.0:00 Opening1:32 Bitcoin's Price Action5:26 YTD Performance11:25 Valuation Models35:06 VMVRV41:00 Short-Term Holder NUPL1:19:59 End
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Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://21stcapital.com/
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This episdoe is a slightly-abridged version of deep-dive discussion on Ark with moonsettler on Twitter.
Here's the link to the full space: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1DXxyveDnyVKM?s=20 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
00:00 - Intro
04:11 - Chaumian e-cash mints
06:12 - the Ark's genesis
9:01 - Lightning's limitations
15:53 - Ark and Lightning compatibility
24:18 - the risk of dust amounts getting stuck
33:03 - fees on Ark
41:16 - OP_CTV
45:44 - How CTV works
49:06 - difference between CTV and covenants in general
52:58 - pegging in and out mechanisms
58:09 - how vulnerable are ASPs
1:02:48 - interoperability between Ark on the mainchain and Ark on Liquid
1:06:06 - Getting on Ark (uplifting)
1:16:49 - getting off Ark
1:52:19 - Are Ark and hardware wallets interoperable?
1:58:52 - watchtowers equivalent in Ark
02:10:27 - multi-party payments
02:12:03 - onchain presence in Ark vs. Lightning
02:16:16 - advantages of size for ASPs
02:22:01 - high fees motivating Ark implementations
02:26:23 - Ark's state of development
02:36:47 - risk of centralization
02:49:27 - Ark vs. Liquid comparison
02:51:51 - privacy nuances
02:57:34 - the tarpit concept
03:09:23 - Concluding thoughts
--------------------------------------------------------------Follow moonsettler: https://twitter.com/4moonsettler
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Discover the Smart Vault, a technology that makes Bitcoin self-custody possible for everyone and makes losing your Bitcoin impossible!21st Capital's Smart Vault is a state-of-the-art, layered multi-signature setup designed with automatic on-chain backups and a built-in inheritance plan. In this session, you'll learn how the Smart Vault enhances Bitcoin self-custody, addressing the security, flexibility, and peace of mind that today's custodial solutions often lack.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------00:00 - Introduction & Agenda02:23 - Meet the CEO: Introduction to 21st Capital’s Smart Vault10:40 - Bitcoin's Self-Custody Design13:40 - Research: Why People Are Hesitant About Self-Custody18:00 - Current Self-Custody Limitations: Single-Sig, Multi-Sig, Collaborative Custody23:55 - 21st Capital’s Layered Security Architecture25:58 - Introducing the Smart Vault: Self-Custody with Inheritance Planning33:58 - What Enabled the Creation of the Smart Vault38:27 - Considerations for Using the Smart Vault42:12 - Comparing the Smart Vault to the Liana Wallet44:18 - Smart Vault’s Security Layers Explained45:17 - Can 21st Capital Access Your Bitcoin?47:03 - Setting Up Timelocks in the Smart Vault47:36 - Protocol Changes and the Smart Vault’s Future Resilience48:23 - Removing Barriers: Simplifying Self-Custody with the Smart Vault49:41 - Access Controls: Who Can Move Your Bitcoin with Recovery Keys?51:26 - Learn More About the Smart Vault + a Special Surprise!54:21 - Follow 21st Capital for Updates
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---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------21stcapital.com
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Bitcoin Data, Analytics, Valuation Modes, and More. 21stcapital.com---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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We examine the sentiment of Bitcoin short-term holder, their likelihood to sell, and the strength of the recent price pump via onchain data.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future: https://21stcapital.com/youtube
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We cover the Bitcoin pump, Bitcoin valuation model update, and MicroStrategy price. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://21stcapital.com/
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Which one is a better hedge against inflation? Is Bitcoin going to make you rich or gold? Which one just holds your head above the water, and which one takes you to the moon?Today, we have Matthew Mežinskis on the Best Bitcoin Data Show and dive deep into comparing gold vs. Bitcoin, macro and money supply.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------04:10 Gold Is Exponential, Bitcoin Is a Power Law07:39 Bitcoin 600K Dollars by the End of 203008:28 Bitcoin to Flip Gold's Market Cap12:56 Gold Does Not Gonna Make You Rich13:41 Bitcoin is 4-5 Times Better than Gold15:08 The Bitcoin Power Trend16:23 Bitcoin Price after Inflation Correction32:19 Bitcoin Price Volatility39:53 Bitcon "Price-to-Sales" Ratio - Bitcoin Mining Revenue51:42 Bitcoin Power Law Stabilization59:18 Basic Power Law 'Fair Value" Statistics for Bitcoin01:12:12 Slope of Bitcoin Power Law and Pseudo R2 vs. Percentile01:18:06 Never Below 60K per Bitcoin Again01:24:07 Don't Risk Selling Bitcoin01:31:39 Where to Follow Matthew Mežinskis-------------------------------------Follow Matthew Mežinskis and his work:https://www.porkopolis.io/https://x.com/1basemoney
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In this video Zi, Glassnode's Senior Analyst, helps us quantify the Impact of Bitcoin ETFs on the Market & compare them with Ethereum ETFs.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------00:00 Highlight00:31 Teaser00:38 Introduction02:51 Latest ETF Stats10:39 Significance of ETF Flows13:37 ETFs’ Cost Basis18:33 ETFs vs. Miners23:45 Bitcoin Capital Flows28:45 ETFs = 5% 29:37 Bitcoin vs. Ethereum ETF Capital Flows35:19 Comparison Summary36:30 Transition38:25 Review40:03 Ending
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PlanC and Sminston join 21st Capital for an analysis of bitcoin price trajectory based on the Power Law and Quantile Regression models.A must-watch for anyone looking to understand Bitcoin price predictions through advanced statistical models.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------00:00 - Intro02:38 - PlanC's Introduction04:36 - Robustness Analysis of Bitcoin Power Law Model05:43 - Sminston's Introduction07:52 - Applying Quantile Regression On The Bitcoin Power Law Model (PlanC)20:26 - Bitcoin Price Projection for November 2025 30:20 - Bitcoin Price Predictions for November 2025 at Different Percentiles38:12 - Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator43:44 - Wrap-up: Bitcoin Price Hasn't Reached the Top Yet---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://21stcapital.com/
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This is the first episode of the Best Bitcoin Data show, where professional data analysts and quants curate for you the best Bitcoin data, charts, and analyses of the week. In this episode, we cover the Volatility-Adjusted Power Law index and Bitcoin Quantile Regression Channel.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------00:00 - Introduction to the Show11:02 - Volatility-Adjusted Power Law Index31:36 - Quantile Regression Channel59:59 - Future Plans---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://21stcapital.com/
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How much of your portfolio should you allocate to Bitcoin to maximize your returns without taking on too much risk?Using the Kelly criterion, Stephen Perrenod, Ph.D., calculates the optimal Bitcoin allocation to be at least 75%.The Kelly formula helps you determine the optimal size of an investment, balancing the potential for growth with the risk of losing your capital. By calculating the proportion of your portfolio to invest based on the probability of success and expected returns, the Kelly Criterion allows you to maximize long-term growth while avoiding the trap of overexposure to a single source of risk.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------00:00 - Intro01:54 - Stephen Perrenod's Background02:32 - Main Kelly Criterion Explanation09:04 - Derivation of the Kelly Criterion10:57 - Bitcoin Allocation Results Using Kelly Criterion16:22 - Kelly Criterion Applied to Weekly Bitcoin Data19:16 - Kelly Criterion Equity Curves for Bitcoin (Spoiler: Don’t Trade!)21:15 - Kelly Criterion Quarterly Bitcoin Holdings Analysis22:14 - Quarterly Rebalancing Simulation Using Kelly Criterion for Bitcoin23:19 - What If You Bought $10,000 Worth of Bitcoin at the Start of 2015?27:04 - Bitcoin Equity Curves for Annual Decisions28:17 - Continuous Distribution Kelly Formula29:24 - Smoothed Kelly Criterion for Bitcoin32:16 - Kelly Criterion Applied to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Allocation35:18 - Bitcoin, Gold, or Nvidia?40:02 - 100% Bitcoin Allocation41:44 - Bitcoin Replaces Bonds: A Retirement Plan with Bitcoin---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://21stcapital.com/
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Dr. Perrenod offers a detailed critique of Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin models (Bitcoin24), diving into the key insights and potential limitations. Dr. Stephen Perrenod is a Harvard and MIT alumnus with a rich background in astrophysics and high-performance computing.With expertise ranging from galaxy cluster modeling to cutting-edge AI and Big Data technologies, Dr. Perrenod brings a unique perspective to the conversation.Don't miss this fascinating discussion on Bitcoin's future, technological innovations, and financial systems.Links:Dr. Perrenod’s website: https://darkmatterdarkenergy.com/aboutSaylor’s Bitcoin model on GitHub: https://github.com/bitcoin-model/bitcoin_model/tree/main---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------00:00 - Intro02:11 - Bitcoin Is a Decentralized Supercomputer04:57 - Issues With Bitcoin24 Models06:21 - Saylor's Bitcoin24 Parameters09:15 - Bitcoin Is Power Law, But Bitcoin24 Is Not23:05 - Why a Power Law Model for Bitcoin?25:41 - Bitcoin Power Law Parameters27:52 - Power Law Projection29:31 - Applying Occam's Razor to Saylor's Bitcoin2432:53 - Conclusion---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://21stcapital.com/
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On August 30th, Michael Saylor unveiled a suite of Bitcoin models forecasting its price over the coming decades under bear, base, and bull scenarios.Giovanni Santostasi and Sina dive into these models, exploring their assumptions and price predictions.Giovanni is the creator of the Bitcoin Power Law theory, which is a powerful tool for modeling and predicting Bitcoin price.Tune in to this episode to discover what we found. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------00:00 - Intro01:12 - Who Is Giovanni Santostasi?02:08 - Is Bitcoin Price Modeling Futile?02:45 - Michael Saylor: All Models Are Destroyed04:21 - Skepticism about Bitcoin Price Modeling 05:45 - How Can You Tell If a Model Is Good?07:49 - Components of Michael Saylor's Bitcoin Models: Bear, Base, Bull15:20 - Saylor's Bitcoin Models' Formula17:57 - Saylor's Bitcoin Models vs. the Power Law Index29:57 - Bitcoin's Performance Been Exponential?36:43 - Criticism of Saylor's Bitcoin Models42:26 - Bitcoin Is Predictable!01:00:10 - What's Wrong with PlanB's Bitcoin Model?01:13:00 - THERE IS NO SECOND BEST!---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://21stcapital.com/---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Learn more about Saylor's Bitcoin Models:https://github.com/bitcoin-model/bitcoin_model/tree/main
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Marius is a Bitcoin journalist at Cryptoast, one of the leading French crypto media. He also has his own website, adoptblock.com, whose mission is to raise awareness about Bitcoin.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------00:00 - intro to pod01:57 - Marius's intro05:44 - Challenges in Bitcoin adoption by companies08:14 - Bitcoin adoption in Iran report17:36 - Marius’s journey into Bitcoin20:20 - Bitcoin’s energy consumption29:27 - Why Bitcoin?32:06 - future projects---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Read Marius's article, The Bitcoin Revolution in Iran: https://www.adoptblock.com/bitcoin-revolution-iran-en---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Follow Marius:https://www.adoptblock.com/mariushttps://twitter.com/AaB_Marius
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In the second lecture of TECH course, RK talks about non-custodial wallets, the difference between hard and cold wallets, and the risks and benefits of having a non-custodial wallet.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:https://21stcapital.com/youtube---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------00:00 - Intro
01:39 - Private wallet definition
04:44 - How private wallets work
17:32 - Types of private wallets
28:16 - Trade-offs - Show more
