Episodes
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US futures are indicating a softer open. European equity markets are mixed and Asian markets were mostly higher. Markets are still reacting to last week’s Federal Reserve rate cut, with futures indicating a 50% chance of another cut in November. In China, the PBOC reduced its 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points ahead of the upcoming Golden Week holiday. This move follows weak macro data for August and comes as CNY1.5 trillion in funds are set to mature this week. In Japan, takeaways from the recent BOJ meeting, and Governor Ueda’s press conference, leaned dovish, signaling a potential delay in rate hikes to December.
Companies Mentioned: Intel, Tesla, BMW, Volkswagen, Vail Resorts
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US futures are indicating a softer open today. European markets are lower, following Thursday's gains. Asian markets finished mixed. The focus today is on the BoJ decision, where no changes to policy were made, as widely expected. The policy statement was notably brief, with no forward guidance, leaving market participants evaluating the broader impact of the Fed's outsized rate cut. The BoE is tipped to cut rates again in November after leaving policy unchanged on Thursday. In US, optimism around a potential soft landing continues to drive rotation into big tech and cyclical stocks, while defensives are being sold off. There is growing anticipation around the Fed’s next steps, particularly how these cuts might impact inflation and economic growth in the coming quarters.
Companies Mentioned: Battalion Oil
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Missing episodes?
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US futures are pointing to a higher open today. European equity markets have opened in the positive territory, following higher levels in Asian markets. Fed's 50bp rate cut reverberating. Powell cautioned against presumption that outsized rate cuts will continue. But markets continue to price in more dovish rate path than implied by dot plot, expecting 70 basis points of additional cuts by end-2024. BOJ, Norges Bank, BOE expected to leave policy unchanged in coming days.
Companies Mentioned: Vistra, Bel Fuse, Palantir Technologies
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US futures are indicating a flat open today. European equity markets are trading slightly lower, while Asian markets finished mixed. In top stories, the debate over the Fed’s upcoming rate decision remains front and center. The market is pricing in a 63% chance of a 50-basis point rate cut at today's FOMC meeting, though economists are leaning toward a 25-basis point reduction. The updated Summary of Economic Projections will be closely watched, with forecasts suggesting 75 basis points of cuts in 2024. However, market pricing implies as much as 110 basis points in cuts by year-end.
Companies Mentioned: Google, BlackRock, Microsoft, Brookfield Asset Management, NVIDIA, Nippon Steel, United States Steel
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US futures are indicating a higher open today, up +0.2% as market awaits the upcoming macro events. Asian equities traded mixed in another quiet session, and European equities are broadly firmer in early trades. Anticipation builds for the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the BOJ meeting on Friday. Futures increasingly suggest a 50 basis point Fed rate cut, but the focus may shift to expected rate cuts in 2024 and 2025, totaling an anticipated 250 basis points by the end of 2025. The BOJ is expected to maintain current policy, but market attention will be on Governor Ueda's communication to guide expectations for future rate hikes without inciting the volatility seen after the 31-Jul meeting.
Companies Mentioned: Intel, AMD, Sony
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US futures are indicating a flat open. European equity markets are trading lower, following a mixed session in Asia where equities finished with minor gains and losses. Market attention is focused on central bank decisions this week, with the Fed, BoE, BoJ, and PBoC all on the agenda. A majority of economists anticipate a 25 basis points Fed rate cut, though markets are positioning for a potential 50 basis points cut at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Yen strength is the main story in FX markets. Another round of soft Chinese economic data has increased concerns over the country’s ability to meet its 2024 growth target.
Companies Mentioned: Blackstone, Walt Disney, Amazon, Samsung, Xiaomi
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US futures are pointing to a slightly higher open today. European equity markets have opened in the positive territory, following mixed Asian market trades. Market attention is shifting back to Fed policy after ECB's 25-bp cut. It's expected to be close call between move of 25bp and 50bp. BOE expected to keep policy unchanged next week with next cut more likely in November. A BOJ rate hike in December is anticipated though some also see October hike at earliest.
Companies Mentioned: Blackstone, DigitalBridge, Liberty Global
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US futures are pointing to a firmer open today. European equity markets are trading up, and Asian markets finished broadly higher, driven by a tech rally in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. Top stories today include bullish sentiment in the tech and AI sectors, buoyed by remarks from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang on demand for AI chips. In macro news, US core inflation came in slightly hotter than expected, prompting markets to scale back expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed next week. However, the broader disinflation narrative remains intact, with the Federal Reserve now more focused on growth risks and the labor market.
Companies Mentioned: Google, OpenAI, Microsoft, Nippon Steel, US Steel
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S&P futures are indicating a lower open today, down (0.27%). Asian equities were mostly lower this Wednesday, while European equities are exhibiting strength in early trades. Market attention is turning to tonight's US August CPI, expected to show annualized core holding at 3.2% y/y. In the recent presidential debate, Trump and Harris engaged in discussions on various issues without major revelations, largely reiterating their usual talking points and criticisms. Election betting markets favored Harris during the debate, and a CNN poll showed 63% of viewers believed she won. Trump criticized the Biden administration's immigration and economic policies, while Harris focused on Trump's stance on abortion rights. The race remains tight nationally and in battleground states. Both campaigns expressed readiness for a second debate.
Companies Mentioned: Rightmove, TPG, Elevance Health, Goldman Sachs
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US futures are pointing to a lower open today. European equity markets are trading higher, while most Asia markets finished mixed, though gains were modest amid choppy trading. Market sentiment has improved, with recent US jobs data seen as not weak enough to undermine the narrative of a soft landing for the economy. However, the ongoing AI momentum has come under increased scrutiny, although the broader secular growth theme remains largely intact. In Japan, yen strength has weighed on equities, but the reduced likelihood of aggressive Fed rate cuts is helping to limit market volatility.
Companies Mentioned: KKR, Carlyle, Mizuho, CVC, Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi
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S&P futures are indicating a higher open today, up +0.61%. Asian equities were under pressure, with Hong Kong recording the greatest losses in the region. European equities are broadly firmer in early trades. In today's highlight, China's August consumer inflation rose by 0.6% y/y, slightly below the expected 0.7%. Food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and pork, significantly contributed to the rise. Notable declines were in airfares and hotel prices. YTD inflation remains at 0.2%, below the government's 3% target. Core inflation fell to 0.3%, its lowest in nearly 3.5 years. PPI declined by 1.8% y/y, marking the steepest drop since April and the 23rd consecutive month of deflation, due to weak demand and falling global commodity prices.
Companies Mentioned: Vista Outdoor, Alphabet, Arm Holdings, News Corp, Tesla
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US futures are pointing to a lower open today with Broadcom dragging down Nasdaq afterhours on earnings. European equity markets have opened lower, following mixed Asian market trades. US nonfarm payrolls expected to show step-up in headline jobs growth and downtick in unemployment rate. Today's print takes on added importance in shaping hard vs soft-landing debate, as well as determining whether Fed is expected to cut by 25 or 50 basis points this month.
Companies Mentioned: Salesforce, Apple, Tencent, Mobileye, Qualcomm
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US futures are pointing to a flat open today. European equity markets are trading mixed, while Asian equities showed a similarly mixed performance. Market attention today remains on the aftermath of Tuesday’s major selloff, which lacked a clear catalyst but was attributed to several factors including softer macro data, systematic unwinds, and yen strength. Growth concerns are increasing, particularly following weaker-than-expected JOLTS job openings data and cautious takeaways from the Fed’s Beige Book.
Companies Mentioned: Nvidia, Nippon Steel, US Steel, Sandy Spring Bancorp
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S&P futures are pointing to a lower open today, down (0.37%). Asian equities closed broadly lower today, with Nikkei down (4.24%). European markets are also weaker in early trades. In today's highlight, Asia's semiconductor sector tumbled today following Nasdaq's sharp declines on Tuesday. Major semiconductor companies in Japan, Taiwan, and Korea faced their worst single-day fall since the Aug-5 meltdown. The sell-off is attributed to high valuations and concerns regarding AI capital expenditure and return on investment. Media reports indicate that NVIDIA and several other companies have received subpoenas from the DOJ concerning potential antitrust violations.
Companies Mentioned: NVIDIA, Apple, Fuji Soft
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S&P futures are basically unchanged, suggesting a flat open today. Asian equities traded mixed in a quiet Tuesday session., while European markets are broadly higher in early trades. In today's highlight, South Korea's inflation fell to its lowest since March 2021, widening the scope for a rate cut in the coming months. Inflation rate eased to the Bank of Korea's target with the headline CPI increasing by 2% y/y in August, slightly below the expected 2.1% and down from 2.6% in July. With inflation now at the BOK's target, four out of seven board members are considering a potential interest rate cut by year-end, and some economists anticipate a move as soon as October.
Companies Mentioned: Blackstone, Tesla, Morgan Stanley, Fuji Soft
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US futures are indicating a positive open today. European equity markets are mostly higher, following the mostly advancing Asian markets with China markets outperforming. Market attention today is centered on the upcoming PCE index release, which is expected to show core PCE inflation trending downward, potentially falling below the Fed's 2% target on a three-month annualized basis. Next week’s August nonfarm payrolls report is also anticipated to be a critical factor in shaping monetary policy decisions for the remainder of the year.
Companies Mentioned: Intel, Nvidia, OpenAI, Tencent, NetEase
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US futures are pointing to a slightly lower open today. European equity markets have opened flat, following mixed Asian market trades. In US, attention is on chip sector with Nvidia down almost 9% afterhours. Eurozone market is now pricing in September cut and 60 basis points worth of easing for Q4. China's growth concerns in focus with UBS forecast downgrade.
Companies Mentioned: Nvidia, Apple, Big Lots, Agriculture & Natural Solutions Acquisition
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S&P futures are indicating a flat open today, up +0.02% as the market awaits for NVIDIA's earnings. Asian markets finished Wednesday trading mostly lower, while European markets are broadly firmer in early trades. For today's highlight, in a recent speech, BOJ Deputy Governor Himino emphasized the need for vigilant market monitoring due to ongoing instability, aligning with Governor Ueda's earlier statements. He reaffirmed that the BOJ will consider market impacts and the July rate hike before adjusting monetary policy, contingent on confidence in their outlook.
Companies Mentioned: NVIDIA, Anglo American
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S&P futures are indicating a higher open today, up +0.11%. Asian markets finished Tuesday trading mixed, while European markets are broadly firmer in early trades. For today's highlight, Chinese e-commerce firms are facing significant challenges due to a weak economy and intense competition. PDD Holdings warned of slowing revenue growth, causing its stock to drop (29%), the largest single-day loss since its IPO, erasing nearly $55B in market value. This impacted Alibaba and JD.com, which both fell (4%). Analysts see PDD's struggles as indicative of broader headwinds in China's e-commerce sector, as companies compete in a saturated market.
Companies Mentioned: Paramount Global, Disney, Zip Co, Apple
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S&P futures are indicating a higher open today, up +0.13%. Asian markets finished Monday trading mixed, and European equity markets are also mixed in early trades. For today's highlight, the PBOC left the MLF rate unchanged while draining a net CNY101B after a delayed operation. The yuan's midpoint fixing is the strongest since mid-June, with policymakers focusing on preventing sharp appreciation. Economists have lowered their 2024 forecasts for China's inflation, investment, and consumption due to weak domestic demand, despite expected rate cuts. Retail sales growth is projected at 4%, the lowest outside the pandemic, and fixed asset investment is down to 4.2%. The CPI forecast is reduced to 0.5%.
Companies Mentioned: Intel, Visa, Carlyle, Blackstone, Paramount Global, Coupang