Episodes

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: Living with higher yields

    Global Data Pod Weekender: Living with higher yields

    · Global Data Pod

    In contrast to past episodes of yield spikes we believe it is unlikely that the recent rise in global bond yields will be reversed as markets sustainably shift up expectations for growth and the policy rate path for 2024-25. Next week’s FOMC meeting will likely see Chair Powell back away from the current dot plot and point to June as a time for a broader reassessment of the policy path ahead.

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Jay Barry

    This podcast was recorded on 26 April 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – Global Inflation Report Recap

    Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – Global Inflation Report Recap

    · Global Data Pod

    Speakers: Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economist

    Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

    Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist, Global Emerging Markets and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the monthly global inflation report and unpack implications for central bank monetary policy.

    This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at

    https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4683349-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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  • Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor

    Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor

    · Global Data Pod

    Nora Szentivanyi, Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the global CPI reports for March and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.

    This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4683349-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

    © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: I wanna take you higher

    Global Data Pod Weekender: I wanna take you higher

    · Global Data Pod

    Another week of stronger-than-expected growth data now has first-quarter global GDP tracking roughly a %-point above trend, similar to the robust outcome posted last year. Expectations remain for a deceleration but are we missing something more inherently robust? If so, what would that mean for inflation and how would central banks react?

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Lupton

    This podcast was recorded on 19 April 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: Three points make a trend

    Global Data Pod Weekender: Three points make a trend

    · Global Data Pod

    Strong growth alongside elevated inflation raises risks of both a high-for-long soft landing and a boil-the-frog higher-for-longer hard landing. Stronger-than-expected US CPI for a third straight month pushes out pricing of Fed cuts. Spillover to risk markets and to the rest of global monetary policy poses a risk to the expansion.

    Speakers:

    Joseph Lupton

    Michael Hanson

    This podcast was recorded on 12 April 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: Ease on (further) down the road

    Global Data Pod Weekender: Ease on (further) down the road

    · Global Data Pod

    Continued strong growth and robust labor markets alongside strong profits raise the likelihood of a longer expansion even if sticky inflation keeps odds of high-for-longer rates elevated. This week’s global PMIs and US payroll report underscore ongoing resilience, likely pushing back timing and/or magnitude of easing cycles. A key unknown is how this would revert back to financial conditions and short-circuit growth.

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Lupton

    This podcast was recorded on 05 April 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – March Jobs Report Recap

    Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – March Jobs Report Recap

    · Global Data Pod

    Speakers:

    Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist

    Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

    Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the March jobs report.

    This podcast was recorded on 5 April 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Research Rap: Disentangling US employment divergences

    Global Data Pod Research Rap: Disentangling US employment divergences

    · Global Data Pod

    Michael Hanson and Murat Tasci analyze the factors that can —and cannot — account for the growing divergence between payroll and household employment, including immigration

    This podcast was recorded on 04/04/2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4659901-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: Looking for a pickup in global capex

    Global Data Pod Weekender: Looking for a pickup in global capex

    · Global Data Pod

    Hints of a pickup in global capex are emerging in activity data and surveys, with next week’s March global PMI likely to show positive news on manufacturing. On another front we remain confident in our forecast for high-for-long policy rates, which should be reinforced by a US immigration surge that is boosting both supply and demand.

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Lupton

    This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation remains sticky at its core

    Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation remains sticky at its core

    · Global Data Pod

    Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports globally and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and monetary policy. Early 2024 data provide strong support for our view of a disinflation stall in 1H24. Global core CPI picked up to a 0.3%m/m sa pace in January-February, pushing our 1Q24 forecast to 3.4%ar. A phase of global goods price disinflation looks to have ended while service price inflation remains sticky. We expect core inflation to ease modestly to a roughly 3% pace next quarter. Less clear is the case for the step down in 2H24 and beyond which is not yet validated in global labor costs, short-term expectations or in recent signals from commodity markets.

    SpeakersNora Szentivanyi, Economic and Policy ResearchMichael Hanson, Economic and Policy Research

    This podcast was recorded on 26 March 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4658475-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4617757-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod: Data Drop – February Inflation Report Recap

    Global Data Pod: Data Drop – February Inflation Report Recap

    · Global Data Pod

    Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist, Global Emerging Markets and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the February global inflation report.

    This podcast was recorded on March 25, 2024

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/KAL-1-GMV4YY4X for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: Diversity and inclusion

    Global Data Pod Weekender: Diversity and inclusion

    · Global Data Pod

    This week displayed significant diversity in central bank actions amid a clear-cut positive signal from the data flow (DM PMIs and China activity). While central bank diversity is an important theme, the dominant signal for markets is the hawkish guidance delivered by Chair Powell and Governor Ueda.

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Lupton

    This podcast was recorded on 22 March 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Research Rap: The economic effects of surging US immigration

    Global Data Pod Research Rap: The economic effects of surging US immigration

    · Global Data Pod

    Michael Feroli joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the economic effects of surging US immigration. Immigration has soared over the last few years, profoundly affecting some of the widely-followed economic statistics. It’s been important to the surprising pace of job growth, even alongside a modestly increasing unemployment rate. This, in turn, has added to overall income and output growth. The increase in immigration probably hasn’t had a first order effect on inflation: immigrants add to labor supply, but also add to consumer demand. However, there are many nuances to this assessment.

    This podcast was recorded on March 21, 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655607-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

    © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: Slouching toward high-for-long

    Global Data Pod Weekender: Slouching toward high-for-long

    · Global Data Pod

    The news flow supports our core views on growth resilience and core inflation stickiness as we turn into the new year. As central banks process this news we expect a DM easing to take hold at midyear but prove shallow. Next week, the FOMC should lean in this direction removing one easing from its dot plot and raising its r* estimate

    This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – February Jobs Report Recap

    Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – February Jobs Report Recap

    · Global Data Pod

    Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the February jobs report.

    Speakers:Michael Feroli, Chief US EconomistSamantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

    This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4648073-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: A good week

    Global Data Pod Weekender: A good week

    · Global Data Pod

    The global expansion looks to be broadening with both sectoral and geographic growth gaps closing. Resilience fades recession risks but keeps inflation risks on the table. In a Goldilocks report this week, US job growth remained strong last month but came alongside a rise in the urate. The Fed and ECB signaled cuts are coming but remain cautious.

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Lupton

    This podcast was recorded on 8 March 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod EM Edge: No changes to flight plans

    Global Data Pod EM Edge: No changes to flight plans

    · Global Data Pod

    Katie Marney and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent developments in the EM Edge economies. The outlook had turned more favorable for the EM Edge, aided by macro adjustments and a supportive external environment. Since then, markets have priced out earlier easing by DM central banks. While some of the optimism may have been tempered, the evolving external narrative has not challenged our views. Central Bank reaction functions should continue to be guided by domestic growth/inflation, which remain broadly favorable. Frontiers can also take comfort in the fact that shifts in global markets have not negatively impacted exchange rates. Easier financial conditions have also reduced liquidity concerns for some economies. The outlook for frontier economies remains broadly positive, in our view, absent a more aggressive repricing of the Fed and the dollar.

    This podcast was recorded on March 5, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4638834-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4627975-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: Testing confidence

    Global Data Pod Weekender: Testing confidence

    · Global Data Pod

    This week’s activity reports suggest that global growth is resilient and forming a broader base as we start the new year. Inflation readings point to stickiness. Next week’s Powell testimony and ECB meeting should show these developments tempering but not derailing central bank confidence that inflation will continue to decline.

    This podcast was recorded on 1 March 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Research Rap: Data Drop – January Inflation Report Recap

    Global Data Pod Research Rap: Data Drop – January Inflation Report Recap

    · Global Data Pod

    Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist, Global Emerging Markets and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the January global inflation report.

    Speakers:Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic and Policy Research Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

    This podcast was recorded on 29 February 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4637818-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Sticky around 3%

    Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Sticky around 3%

    · Global Data Pod

    Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their takeaways from the global January CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.

    This podcast was recorded on February 27, 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4637818-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

    © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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