Episodes
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New format, new opportunities. We can start discovering the secrets of the MSH set, but you've got to start somewhere - and where better than with the early 17Lands data? We look at set statistics, color power levels, best cards at each rarity, key cards and biggest traps in each color pair. This should prepare you for your LGS and get you ready to explore the more subtle interactions and niche builds later in the format - in the end you can't do that without some solid fundamentals.
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Episode #188
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Few days before the new set releases on Arena - why not see our vision of draft format before starting to draft? Our eccentric, deck-centric set review is back. We look at format stats, design vision and then instead of grading individual cards we propose 40 card decks skeletons to showcase what we see in each color pair. This time we have
Tresio
https://x.com/Tresio/
and Rosemary Tea
https://x.com/TheRosemaryTea/
And we are in for an interesting discussion. MSH looks like a jazz improvisation set rather thn paint-by-numbers drafting prevalent in the last few sets and I am all in for it. It is also a polar opposite of SOS - a creature and permanent centered design after instant and sorcery themed SOS so expect to re-evaluate your evaluations.
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Episode #187
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Missing episodes?
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This week we are trying something new. A journal club. And the reason for it is very simple - there are not that many Magic-related scientific papers out there. But last week Jess Williams and Zev Goldhaber-Gordon released a very interesting paper on opening hands, land percentages, mulliganing and mana flood.
I invited both authors to talk about their findings and what implications they have for Magic players. We will be talking about BO3 mulligan rates, links between player win rate and mulligan rate, causes for any trends in that. We will also look at a neat method of estimating optimal land composition, and impact of both mana screw and flood.
Jess and Zev are both PhD students with impressive scientific pedigree, but also Magic players with notable successes under their belts, so they combine the rigour needed for those sorts of analyses with understanding of the game.
You can follow them here:
Jess Williams:
https://x.com/mtg_jess
Zev Goldhaber-Gordon: https://bsky.app/profile/zergog.bsky.social
And - most importantly find the paper here in its simplified version (the link to the full paper can be found in there too):
https://medium.com/@mtg_jess/opening-hand-evaluation-in-limited-executive-summary-8360a819e2e6
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Episode #186
You can get the BulkBox if you are in the UK. Remember to use SIERKO10 code for a 10% discount!If you are outside of UK, you can find your local distributor on the BulkBox website
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This week we say goodbye to SOS and sending it off through testing some new deck clustering approach. This time it is capable of distinguishing sub-color pair builds. And this opens new possibilities of analysing limited data. What happens when a color(pair) is not open? Can we see the symptoms of drfting based on the 1st picks? I think that we can. The method I used here is experimental but based on this pilot run, I will incorporate it (and much earlier in the format) for other sets. Key aspect of this episode is testing the novel approach so be generous with comments and suggestions!
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Episode #185
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Card win rates can be misleading if you don't look at them with some amount of granularity. Two color pairs have a very different base win rate? Card played in both can look middling. Card is only good in one color pair but is routinely played in many? Win rate can look bad. To start correctly assessing card power using data to add extra context is crucial. And if you do it well, you might discover some plans for each color pair that will otherwise remain hidden. Today you can see which card from SOS plays well in which of the colleges. But I will also show you how looking at the win rates of Strixhaven Skycoach and supplementing it with knowledge of the format can point you to less obvious conclusions related to the format.
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Episode #184
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New set is upon us, and it plays out sweet in Limited. I look at the early 17Lands data in order to figure out what works, what doesn't. But for this one, I think the more important thing is: what are the rules of engagement. What do you have to do in this format in order to start winning that is not typical for all formats. Hopefully the way I present the data will help you figuring that part out.
Remember that looking at card win rates will give you a quick boost in your personal win rate, but understanding the format, getting to grasp its philosophy will set you off on the long-term winning streak, independently of how the format corrects in the future.
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Episode #183
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New set is almost there, so it is time for my eccentric, deck-centric set review with the ever changing but ever wise Skeleton Crew. This time we have Zach Kagan and Tresio and we dive into out hopes and aspirations for the Secrets of Strixhaven set. And what a banger it promises to be. Despite being a 5 guilds set, where only 5 color pairs are supported for draft, the design team tried to seed in fast and slow versions of each of the 5 archetype and we try to figure out how that could work for each of them. We look at cards, but in context of decks and plans rather than evaluating each card in vacuum. Great material to prime yourself for the upcoming set, and I can proudly say - I think it is one of the best Skeleton Crew episodes we did so far.
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Episode #182
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No graphs in this seminar but we are looking at something that will help you in every format you play and, who knows, potentially also in your non-magic part of life. Today we look at some cognitive theory and find ways our own brain tries to make us lose. How does it do it, what can we do about it? How to find a right mix of instinctive reactions and analytical thinking that maximises our intellectual contribution towards our games while letting us play a long tournament without getting exhausted?
We also look at some common biases and put them in the context of Magic the Gathering draft. How to create a system that lets us avoid those common cognitive traps? How to build a structured approach that will naturally make us aware of our own brain trying to fool ourselves.
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Episode #181
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Everything Pizza decks are the open secret of the TMT draft format. Some streamers chain one 5 color deck after another. And there is a good reason for that. Since it has not been covered by any podcasts, the top cards for the archetype, including its namesake, are still going relatively late.
And it is by far the best deck in the format. Its win rate averages at 60% - way above WB ninjas. And, if you build it correctly, this can be much higher. Today I will look at dos and don'ts of Everything Pizza 5C piles and hopefully convince you that if you never drafted it - you never truly played the TMT draft format and are missing out on the fun.
Also - since it is a format where 5C deck is busted, if you feel afraid of playing 5C in draft - this is probably the best time to try it and learn how to do it in the future as normally 5C deck have a very different set of fundamentals than run-of-the-mill 2C draft decks.
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Episode #180
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Even with only 5 supported color pairs, some cards are not universally good. And after learning about the best cards in the last episode, figuring out the ones that have only one good home is important. We can fool ourselves by looking at the generic win rates of a card, but sometimes the difference can be massive.
Extreme example is the poster boy of this episode, Armaggon, Future Shark. A bona fide bomb in BG decks, improving their win rate by a whooping 12%p, in WB it actually lowers it by 2%p. Reasons are obvious - WB doesn't want an 8-drop and doesn't have tools to cast them. But some cards are less obvious - check out the episode to see which ones are those.
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Episode #179
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New set, new rules and despite its small size TMT looks interesting. There is a variety of diverse strategies which are viable - aggro, control, tempo are all there. And some cards do surprisingly well - check out this episode to see which ones and why.
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Episode #178
This podcast is sponsored by mtgazone.com - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business.
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Our deck-centric, eccentric set review is back - we cover the key aspects of the upcoming Turtle set. Get some head start over the rest of Arena folk by tapping into great minds of Jason Ye and Springbok7. I am also present. How to build the 5 main color pairs, some key cards and good ideas on what is going to be important in the format and what is not. Plus some silliness - but that one is a given with the skeleton crew.
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Episode #177
This podcast is sponsored by mtgazone.com - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business.
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Typal sets are tricky to navigate. How are we supposed to know if this particular Kithkin is OK in Elves or not? And how do we even start one of the unsupported color pairs? Well, here is the answer. I look at most cards in the set and try to figure out which cards are good in surprising homes and what cards are letting you stay open to non-canonical color pairs as much as it is possible.
We also talk about meta strategy - what are the dominant ideas on how to navigate ECL drafts and where do i stand on the topic.
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Episode #176
This podcast is sponsored by mtgazone.com - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business.
You can get the BulkBox if you are in the UK. Remember to use SIERKO10 code for a 10% discount!If you are outside of UK, you can find your local distributor on the BulkBox website
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New set - new analyses. We look at the basics of Lorwyn Eclipsed - which color pairs are looking good, which are looking sus. Best cards at each rarity all in the sauce of context that will hopefully help you putting those trophies on board and - more importantly - letting you understand what makes the format tick.
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Watch this episode and see the slides:
Episode #175
This podcast is sponsored by mtgazone.com - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business.
You can get the BulkBox if you are in the UK. Remember to use SIERKO10 code for a 10% discount!If you are outside of UK, you can find your local distributor on the BulkBox website
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Our eccentric, deck-centric set review is back. My class guests go through the skeletons of the 5 supported color pairs in Lorwyn Eclipsed, building functional decks using mainly commons and uncommons to keep it realistic.
But there is more.
Since there are only 5 main builds we let them loose to brew and got such bangers as Reanimator or Burn in the process.
This time we have:
Sam Pratt (bsky.app/profile/sampratt.bsky.social) of the Rough Drafts podcast,
Adam DDVAP (https://x.com/adam_ddavp) Limited Grinder, Lorcana champion and an owner of a cyberpony,
Zachy K (bsky.app/profile/zakagan.bsky.social) One of the Minnesota's finest Magic players and comedians. Yes, I probably am getting cancelled in Minnesota.
Give them a follow and enjoy the show.
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Watch this episode and see the slides:
Episode #174
This podcast is sponsored by mtgazone.com - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business.
You can get the BulkBox if you are in the UK. Remember to use SIERKO10 code for a 10% discount!If you are outside of UK, you can find your local distributor on the BulkBox website
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Is Arid Mesa better than Black Lotus (no) what cards make reanimator decks tick? What plan B should a Breach / Brain Freeze deck have for more resilience? All that in this weeks special episode on arena power cube.
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Episode #173
This podcast is sponsored by mtgazone.com - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business.
You can get the BulkBox if you are in the UK. Remember to use SIERKO10 code for a 10% discount!If you are outside of UK, you can find your local distributor on the BulkBox website
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This week time to look at 2025 in retrospective - what cards were the heroes of last year's draft? I use data to highlight some bests in multiple categories. Part to reminisce, part to try and think more about the current designs and player psychology to see if we can get some advice from there. Did you know bonus sheet cards are more likely to be over and underrated? Me neither!
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Watch this episode and see the slides:
Episode #172
This podcast is sponsored by mtgazone.com - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business.
You can get the BulkBox if you are in the UK. Remember to use SIERKO10 code for a 10% discount!If you are outside of UK, you can find your local distributor on the BulkBox website
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Cutting that land is tempting when you build your draft deck. But is it? This time I explore some data on what are the features of a successful 16 land deck, which cards make it tick and which are not pulling their weight.
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Watch this episode and see the slides:
Episode #171
This podcast is sponsored by mtgazone.com - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business.
You can get the BulkBox if you are in the UK. Remember to use SIERKO10 code for a 10% discount!If you are outside of UK, you can find your local distributor on the BulkBox website
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How often did you regret a draft pick after the draft? That lingering feeling you should have made a different choice in a 50:50 decision? Well, hopefully today I will convince you to worry less. We will look at the cost of abandoning the picks and I will make a semi-coherent case that if your card evaluation is OK, you will end up just fine. We are also going to learn why pack 1 picks are more important for finding a lane than for providing playables. We even venture (only for a bit) into constructed world.
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Watch this episode and see the slides:
Episode #170
This podcast is sponsored by mtgazone.com - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business.
You can get the BulkBox if you are in the UK. Remember to use SIERKO10 code for a 10% discount!If you are outside of UK, you can find your local distributor on the BulkBox website
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17Lands win rates we look at the most show us how much a card is winning in all the decks it has been put into. And for many cards, this is enough. They are either generically good and play well in most shells, or generically bad and should be avoided. But what about those exceptions?Well, sometimes the generic win rate can be misleading. Some cards with. low win rate perform very well in one specific color pair - you miss on it and you are haemorrhaging those precious win rate percentages. For example, Fire Navy Trebuchet in the last set has middling win rate but does exceptionally well in White-Black decks. In this episode I painstakingly go through all the cards in the set where dat was available and try to add that extra level of granularity to boost your win rates.
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Watch this episode and see the slides:
Episode #169
This podcast is sponsored by mtgazone.com - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business.
You can get the BulkBox if you are in the UK. Remember to use SIERKO10 code for a 10% discount!If you are outside of UK, you can find your local distributor on the BulkBox website
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