Episodes
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Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX joins Monetary Matters to discuss why he believes changes to policy makers toolkit and to the structure of the economy mean recessions are “cancelled.” He also discusses why he believes Trump’s MAGA economic policies will be bad for corporate profit margins and his bullish outlook on oil and energy stocks.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:07 Recessions are Cancelled
08:23 The No Recession Feedback Loop
11:11 Impact of Tariffs
13:21 MAGA’s War on Corporate Profits
19:26 Corporate Tax Rates
21:56 Fiscal Balance of Payments Crisis
26:11 Outlook for Inflation, Growth, and Rates
36:07 Outlook for the Stock Market
40:51 US Multiples Compared to Rest of the World
45:18 Bullish View on Oil & Energy Sector
55:15 July Fed Predictions -
Zach Levitt, CIO and Founder of Sixth Turn Capital and Opus One Asset Management joins Other People’s Money to discuss how he is standing up multi-manager platforms at just 25 years old by focusing on niche capacity constrained managers. Levitt discusses the benefits of combining uncorrelated capacity constrained strategies in a multi-manager platform, his unconventional path to founding a multi-manager platform, how mentorship has helped accelerate his growth, and how he goes about attracting talented investors to his platform.
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Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:48 Skipping the Analyst Track and Founding a Hedge Fund at 25
07:14 Many Great Track Records Indicate Nefarious Information Was Traded On
09:42 What Does a Good Capacity Constrained Manager Look Like?
13:38 What Level of Correlation is "Uncorrelated"
18:20 What Level of Capacity is "Capacity Constrained"?
21:30 Mentorship Through Podcasts & Cold Outreach
26:13 Convincing Managers To Join Your Platform as a 25 Year Old
28:46 Investor Interest in SMAs vs Commingled Funds
35:25 Battling Startup Costs
39:06 Selling Talented Investors on Your Success Story
43:39 Risk Management and Cutting Portfolio Managers
47:38 Marketing "Hypothetical" Track Records
52:32 Next Stages of Growth
54:20 Assessing the Capacity Limits
57:17 Can PA Traders Become PMs? -
Missing episodes?
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Matthew Klein, founder of The Overshoot and UN/BALANCED and co-author of Trade Wars Are Class Wars with Michael Pettis joins Monetary Matters to discuss what factors really lead to major trade and capital flow imbalances between countries. He argues that factors like income inequality, domestic economic policy and decisions being made at the corporate level can have far more impact than country level trade policy. He also discusses why even though extreme trade and capital flow imbalances may be dangerous, implementing improper solutions can exacerbate the damage.
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Read Matthews Substack The Overshoot here: https://theovershoot.co/
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:52 Why Trade Wars Are Class Wars
12:13 Trade Surpluses vs Trade Deficits
18:51 Income Distribution Drives Capital Flows
28:28 China's Shifting Income Distribution
33:41 The Problem With China's Growing Trade and Current Account Surplus
41:51 Who is Winning in China?
44:04 How to Combat China's "Cheating on Trade"
49:25 Who Has the Upper Hand in Trade Negotiations?
54:05 Will Tariffs Drive Reshoring?
59:53 How Can the US Restore Balance of Trade?
01:08:29 Conclusions -
This conversation was originally recorded for Julian Brigden’s research service, MacroCapture. Sign up for MacroCapture by MI2 Partners today with coupon codes MM10 (for annual) and MM10Q (for quarterly) to save 10% at:
https://mi2partners.com/macrocapture-landing-page/
Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners and veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews of SuperMacro join Monetary Matters for a wide-ranging discussion of the forces that are contributing to a global weak market in sovereign bonds. Recorded May 28th and released for Julian’s MacroCapture clients on June 3rd.
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Val Zlatev, Portfolio Manager and Senior Partner at hard tech specialist hedge fund Analog Century Capital Management joins Other People’s Money to discuss what he thinks investors still fail to appreciate about the secular growth of AI and semiconductors. He also discusses why DeepSeek was so misunderstood, other aspects of the AI supply chain, the state of the analog chip cycle, running long/short and market neutral strategies and garnering interest from the large multi-manager platforms.
Learn More About Analog Century Capital Management: https://www.analogcm.com/
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Timestamps
00:00 Intro
01:15 What is Hard Tech?
02:41 The Evolution of the Hard Tech Sector From the 90s to Now
05:04 Investors Are Underweight Hard Tech
11:09 The Massive Impact of the End of Moore's Law
16:59 New Investment in Semiconductor Capacity
18:08 Why AI Should Be Compared to Cloud, Not Fiber
22:55 What Investors Got Wrong About DeepSeek
25:41 The US Government's Impact on AI & Chips
33:04 The Chinese Government’s Involvement in AI & Chips
35:13 Dominant Players in Chinese Semiconductor Market
39:12 The AI Supply Chain Beyond Semiconductors
43:53 Analog Semiconductors & Power Management
49:55 Winners, Losers, and Fakers in AI
57:03 Research Process for Hard Tech
01:01:25 Dispersion in Hard Tech Returns
01:03:31 Trading and Portfolio Construction at Analog Century
01:08:13 Market Neutral & Garnering Interest From Multi-Manager Platforms
01:12:20 Market Neutral vs Long/Short Investors
01:14:51 The Value of Partners and Team Continuity
01:16:42 Conclusion -
To learn more about the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ): https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZJack/overview/
To view the prospectus: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus
Gerard Minack of Minack Advisors joins Monetary Matters to discuss why even though other developed nations like Japan may have higher debt to GDP ratios, factors like net debt, monetized debt, and the overall size of US debt make this comparison flawed. He argues these factors make the current trajectory of US debt levels completely unsustainable and that the bond vigilantes will step in long before even more extreme levels are reached. He also discussed the extreme valuation gap for US assets compared to the rest of the world, why he thinks that gap will narrow, Mag 7 dominance and AI, and why he thinks Japan, not China, is the large Asian market set to outperform.
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You can find Gerard Minack on Bloomberg
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:24 Van Eck OUNZ
01:00 Interest Rate & Bond Market Views
09:13 Comparing US Debt Levels to Japan
12:21 Comparing Soft & Hard Data
16:19 Two Growth Scenarios Affecting Rates This Year
23:30 Van Eck OUNZ
24:05 The New World of Higher Rates
33:12 How Higher Rates Impact Stocks
43:01 The AI Trade and US Valuations
49:23 The US Valuation Gap vs The Rest of the World
53:12 Mag 7 Dominance
01:03:15 Bearish on Chinese Stocks and Bullish on Japan
01:09:23 Japan's Macro Backdrop
01:16:19 The Neutral Rate & Demographics
01:21:22 No Recessions in Australia
01:26:16 Australian Outlook -
Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, joins Monetary Matters to argue that while tariffs may be the catalyst that shifts global appetites for US assets, it will be the necessary shift to fiscal hawkishness that will drive the end of “American Exceptionalism” and outperformance of US markets. Papic also discusses his views on as shift towards a multipolar world and why he views the dual polar world with US and China as competing global hegemons as the least likely outcome when compared with a multipolar reality or the revitalization of the American Empire.
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Timestamps:
01:00 Why TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) is Wrong
08:29 Recession Risks vs Stock Market Risks
12:21 Comparing Soft & Hard Data
15:12 Timeline for Trade Policy Certainty
20:53 Tariffs as a Catalyst for Domestic Economic Improvements Globally
26:47 The US Fiscal Facade
28:28 China Outlook
30:14 The Big Beautiful Bill & US Fiscal Deficit
41:02 DOGE’s Political Signal Value
48:09 US Defense Spending
51:13 Russia & Ukraine War
56:07 Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World
01:03:01 Middle East Stability -
Bob Robotti, legendary value investor and President and CIO of Robotti and Company Advisors, is one of a very select group of investors with a 30+ year track record of S&P 500 outperformance. Here he joins Other People’s Money to discuss long-term value investing, why he likes to invest in companies perceived to be facing headwinds, and his view that American based industrial companies are competitively advantaged for reasons completely unaffected by trade policy. He also discusses how he operates both an advisory business and a broker dealer business and how the broker dealer has served as a starting point for many other great value investors.
Learn More About Robotti Advisors: https://advisors.robotti.com
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Timestamps
00:00 Intro
01:27 Patient Capital
08:05 Investing in Companies with Headwinds
12:13 Building Products Businesses
16:08 North American Industrial Advantage
22:41 Industries Returning to the USA
27:18 Valuing Businesses on Cost of Replacement
30:56 The Links Between Lumber, Building Products,
and Housing
33:24 Engaging With Management in Long-term
Positions
39:04 Trading Around Long-Term Positions
47:57 Buying Stocks After They've Gone Up
52:56 Trading Against Each Other
55:01 Having a Broker Dealer and Advisory Business
59:15 Jumping From the Sell Side to the Buy Side
01:04:08 Capital Churn
01:06:03 All US Equity Investors Should Compare
Themselves to the S&P 500 -
To view the prospectus for the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ), please visit: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus
Learn more: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZJack/overview/
Steve Hanke, author of “Making Money Work” and Professor of Applied Economics The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, joins Monetary Matters to share his thoughts on the anemic bank credit growth, fiscal and tariffs policy in the United States, and the global Dollar system. Recorded May 20, 2025.
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Steve’s book, “Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System”, on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260
“Making Money Work” from Publisher (Wiley): https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Making+Money+Work%3A+How+to+Rewrite+the+Rules+of+Our+Financial+System-p-9781394257270
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Jason Furman, former Chairman of Council of Economic Advisers for President Obama and Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the Department of Economics at Harvard University, joins Monetary Matters to share his view of the Trump administration’s “three-legged stool” of tariffs, deregulation, and tax cuts. Recorded May 20, 2025.
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Nicolás Dujovne, CIO and founder of Tenac Asset
Management and former Treasury Minister of Argentina joins Monetary Matters to discuss the evolution of emerging market economies, EM debt investing, and why even though the US’s failure to address fiscal issues may be reminiscent of emerging markets it still falls short of full EM status even if it risks the US Dollar’s reserve currency status over the long run. Dujovne also identifies the opportunities he's watching now, explains why he thinks the dollar is moving lower, and makes the case for EM debt becoming more common in investor portfolios.
Learn more about Tenac Asset Management: https://tenacam.com
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Timestamps:
00:46 The Impact of the Dollar on EMs Like Argentina
04:59 The Impact of the Fed and US Rated on EMs Experiencing Crisis
08:15 The Causes of Argentina's Inflation
15:17 The Mechanics of Money Printing
18:38 Macro Investing in Emerging Markets
28:30 Dollar Bonds vs Local Currency Bonds
34:55 Why Do Countries Issue Dollar Bonds?
40:05 The Case for EM Debt as an Asset Class
44:21 Balance of Payments
47:51 Economics vs Trading
52:58 Rebalancing the US vs the Rest of World
55:40 The Weakening US Dollar
57:54 Tariff Impacts on US GDP
01:01:36 One Year Dollar Outlook
01:03:25 Current Positioning
01:05:26 Current Market Anomalies
01:08:52 Is the US Becoming an Emerging Market
01:13:54 LATAM Tariff Winners
01:17:16 Opinions on Milei
01:21:18 Argentina Market Views -
Monetary Matters listeners can get a 25% discount to Prometheus Macro: https://www.prometheus-macro.com/monetarymatters
Aahan Menon, founder and CEO of Prometheus Macro, returns to Monetary Matters to share his in-depth macro process. He talks about how returns come from three factors: carry, mean reversion, and trend, and about how these three factors interact with other macro variables. Prometheus Macro is a trusted source for Jack and Monetary Matters listeners can get discounted access to Aahan’s research service by using the link below. Annual subscriptions can be purchased at 25% off the monthly subscription rate, and monthly subscribers can get a 10% discounted rate.
https://www.prometheus-macro.com/monetarymatters
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Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Anderson Institute for Finance & Economics, joins
Monetary Matters to discuss his work at the IMF on the potential risks to the
global financial system that the growth of private credit may pose. They also
discuss the affects that tariffs will have not just on the economy but the
functioning of the financial system.Learn more about the Anderson Institute: https://www.andersen.com/
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:48 A Regulator's View of Private Credit
12:58 Private Credit Replacing the Banking System
15:46 New Types of Private Credit Investors
19:34 Private Credit Liquidity
24:11 Private Credit Leverage
29:00 Geographical Regulatory Risks
30:23 Is Private Credit Investment Grade?
36:01 Private Capital's Entry to the Insurance Business
41:49 Derivatives in Private Credit and Collateralized Fund Obligations
45:44 Economic and Financial Implications of Tariffs
01:01:53 The Risk of Foreigners Selling US Assets
01:09:53 Taiwan Life Insurance Markets
01:12:37 Does Trump Want a Weaker Dollar?
01:15:37 Lack of Consumption Ex-US
01:20:29 The Anderson Institute -
David Kotok, Co-Founder & Strategic Advisor at Cumberland Advisors, joins Monetary Matters to discuss insights from his new book, “The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks.” Kotok cites data over millennia to show that pandemics typically cause natural real interest rates to decline, and productivity and inequality to rise. Kotok argues that we must prepare for the next pandemic and shares his view on the origin of the COVID virus. Part II of an interview recorded on April 4, 2025, with the first part having aired on April 7, 2025.
David Kotok’s book, “The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks”:
https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Flu-Parsing-Pandemic-Economic-ebook/dp/B0DCK1ZHJT
Paper, “Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics”: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26934/w26934.pdf
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Milton Berg, pioneer in technical market data analysis, explains why he thinks early April was a turning point in the U.S. stock market and why the stock market is likely headed higher. Recorded May 13, 2025
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To view the prospectus for the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ), please visit: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus
Learn more: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZJack/overview/
Ken Rogoff’s new book on the U.S. Dollar on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Dollar-Your-Problem-Turbulent/dp/0300275315
On Publisher’s site: https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300275315/our-dollar-your-problem/
Ken Rogoff, renowned economist and author of “Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead” traces the development of the U.S. Dollar’s rise to world dominance, and he connects it with the trade and capital imbalances that have recently motivated large tariff actions from the United States. Rogoff argues that he thinks the Trump tariff policy through April 30 2025 was somewhat “dumb” but that there is a chance that 10 years from now Trump will be viewed as having been right. Recorded April 30, 2025.
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George Magnus, famed economist and Associate at the China Centre Oxford, joins Monetary Matters to discuss how the global trade reset was inevitable because of unsustainable trade imbalances built up prior to the Trump administration. They also discuss the likelihood of tariffs being lowered and the relative strength of the US and China in trade negotiations.
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Jack welcomes Max Wiethe, Other People’s Money podcast host. The two discuss the May Fed meeting, in which Powell repeatedly stressed that the central bank is in a wait and see posture as it gauges how tariffs will impact inflation and growth. The two also discuss shipping volumes, tariff front running, and China’s recent monetary stimulus. Recorded May 7, 2025.
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Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe
Last Bear Standing joins Monetary Matters to explain why he thinks subpar equity returns are likely. In his words, “ The market’s current decline is not a correction, a bump in the road, or a dip to be bought. We have entered a protracted bear market.” Recorded on May 1, 2025.
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“The Matador”: https://substack.com/@thelastbearstanding/p-162490853
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Kara Murphy, CIO of Kestra Investment Management, joins Monetary Matters to share her investment outlook at a time of great uncertainty in global financial markets. Murphy argues that investors are best served taking a long-term approach, and investors with a long-time horizon ought not to spooked by policy-induced short-term gyrations in the stock market. Recorded on May 2, 2025.
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